Showing posts with label Scotland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scotland. Show all posts
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Against All Odds: Scotland to start the Rhodes to redemption
"To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day."
Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8
Scotland have been written off by almost everyone and they travel to Serbia tonight as huge outsiders, but Paul Robinson thinks that they can restore some pride in the Balkans.
Serbia are fourth in Group A, and like their opponents, they won't be qualifying for Rio 2014. Former star player, SiniĊĦa Mihajlovic is the current head coach but he has hardly pulled up any trees in his time as boss. His reign began with three friendly defeats and he didn't get his first win until his sixth game, where the Serbs hammered a depleted and out of form Wales side.
Things took a turn for the worse as they were thrashed at home by Belgium and followed that up with a 1-0 defeat away at minnows Macedonia. Mihajlovic's men did then win a couple of friendlies but they were against Chile and Cyprus, and they were comfortably beaten on Friday in Croatia.
The point I'm trying to make is that Serbia just aren't very good, despite having the services of Premier League stars like Branislav Ivanovic and Matija Nastasic at their disposal. They lack a bit in the forward areas, which is illustrated by the fact that aside from the Welsh battering, they have failed to score in their other two home games under Mihajlovic.
Scotland are bottom of Group A with two points and they could really do with finishing higher up than that so their UEFA coefficient doesn't drop for the next qualifying tournament. Gordon Strachan has replaced Craig Levein and despite edging past Estonia in his opening match in charge, they were beaten and largely outplayed by Wales on Friday.
Steven Fletcher went off injured in that game and he is likely to be replaced by Jordan Rhodes this evening. I think that could prove vital for the Scots as the Blackburn Rovers player looks like a real prospect and scores goals for fun.
Robert Snodgrass is suspended after his red card and Scotland are missing some first choice defenders but I just have a feeling that The Tartan Army will brave the snowy conditions and pick up a positive result.
To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8
This match is live on ESPN & BBC Scotland at 19:30
Wagered: 84 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 0.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)
There are no comments on this article.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Six Nations Team Guide: Scotland
Teams 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ross Ford is unlikely to lift the Six Nations trophy
"Robinson must stop his side leaking crucial tries in the final ten minutes if he is to lift them above the malaise they have been engulfed in since Gavin Hastings hung up his boots."
Can Scotland stop conceding late, crucial scores in time for the 2012 Six Nations? Geoffrey Riddle assesses their chances and wonders if they might be worth backing on the main handicap line...
Scotland suffered at the cruel hand of fate twice in New Zealand where they failed to qualify for the knockout stages for the first time in Rugby World Cup history.
A Chris Ashton try in the 78th minute in Auckland finished off their hopes of qualifying and was preceded by a 73rd minute try from Argentina's Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, which broke Scottish hearts in Wellington. Regular readers of this column will remember I invested heavily in no tryscorer during that game, so sympathised heavily with the Scots.
Andy Robinson must stop his side leaking crucial tries in the final ten minutes if he is to lift them above the malaise they have been engulfed in since Gavin Hastings hung up his boots. The tendency indicates that in their cosy environment north of the border, the two Scottish sides, without fear of relegation, do not have to draw from the well enough and may not be as fit as some of the other sides in the RaboDirect Pro 12 as well as the Premiership and Top 14.
Robinson's record in the Six Nations is poor, and it is questionable whether he has improved the side dramatically since taking the reins. When he took over, Scotland were tenth in the world rankings and inhabit the same spot on the eve of the northern hemisphere extravaganza.
The betting public clearly agree with this synopsis, because the layers barely take a bean on Scotland, which presumably is why they have been profitable to back on the main match handicap over the past few seasons. Of the 24 matches Robinson has presided over, Scotland have been winners on the main handicap line 16 times. If you had backed Scotland all 24 times it would have yielded you a double-figure percentage profit over the past two years. Perhaps it is time to start getting on the bandwagon, if you haven't already, starting this Saturday against England.
There's no doubting the novelty of their training regimes but Wales' squad is missing too many key players to make them realistic contenders, says Geoffrey Riddle....
They're one of the most inexperienced sides at this year's tournament but they're also likely to be just about the fittest. Other than that, there's not a huge amount to like about them, says Geoffrey Riddle....
Italy come into the Six Nations in good shape but can Nick Mallet's men avoid bottom spot in 2011?...
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Six Nations Betting: Ross Ford to lead Scotland
General / Editor / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
/ Editor / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment Ford wil captain Scotland in the Six Nations
"Ford has been capped 53 times and is described by Robinson as, 'A man who will step up and lead from the front.'"
Scotland appoint captain ahead of Six Nations match against England on February 4.
With less than a fortnight to go before they kick-off their Six Nations campaign against England, Scotland manager Andy Robinson has appointed Ross Ford as team captain.
The Scots are [2.52] to get off to a winning start at Murrayfield on Saturday February 4 with England favourites at [1.77].
Robinson said that he had intended for back-row forward Kelly Brown to lead the sign but an injury in a Heineken Cup match at the weekend means that he could miss the tournament.
Ford, who plays at hooker for his country and Edinburgh, has been capped 53 times and is described by Robinson as, "A man who will step up and lead from the front."
Scotland will hope to do more than avoid the Wooden Spoon - for which they're [3.75] - at this year's Six Nations. At [25.0], winning the Six Nations seems unlikely but victory against England would certainly set them on their way to giving a decent account of themselves in 2012.
England, meanwhille, are [5.1] to retain the title they won last year.
Flanker set to miss England's first two matches through injury. Is it time to back Scotland?...
Lancaster puts his faith in youth and opts for a very forward-thinking team. But how will they deliver in the short term, during the 2012 Six Nations?...
O'Driscoll and co. put the Red Rose to the sword with an indominatable performance that leaves Johnson soul-seraching....
Monday, March 28, 2011
International Friendly Betting: Scotland v Brazil
Internationals / Mike Norman / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Charlie Adam will hope to carry his impressive club form over to international level
"Under 2.5 Goals is surprisingly available to back at [2.2] and represents the best way of making a profit from this game – four of Brazil’s last five international friendlies have ended this way."
An experimental Brazil side should still be too good for a defensive-minded Scotland side says Mike Norman, but don't expect too many goals in this international friendly.
Scotland don't resume their Euro 2012 qualifying bid until September but a stern test most definitely awaits them when they face Brazil at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Scotland boss Craig Levein has added prolific Peterborough striker Craig Mackail-Smith to his squad after Stephen Naismith's withdrawal left Kenny Miller as the only fit recognised front man. Levein also has injury worries over midfield duo Scott Brown and James Morrison but both are expected to be passed fit for the game no player ever wants to miss.
Brazil coach Mano Menezes is expected to field an experimental line-up as he prepares his side for the Copa America which commences in July. AC Milan's Robinho - who captained the side in Brazil's last friendly - has been left out of the squad, whilst his club teammate Pato will miss the game because of an ankle injury. Uncapped youngster Leandro Damiao could be given his international debut in attack after impressing for his club side Internacional this season.
Scotland will be buoyed after recording back-to-back 3-0 victories over the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland respectively, but this game represents a huge step up in class and a draw is arguably the best they can hope for. The Scots are available to back at [9.8] in the Match Odds market with Brazil the overwhelming favourites at [1.43] and The Draw at [4.8].
Levein was heavily criticised for fielding a 4-6-0 formation against the Czech Republic last year, and although he is unlikely to start with an equally negative formation this time, he is expected to pack the midfield, with the impressive Charlie Adam handed the job of protecting the back four. Expect a low-scoring encounter then as the Scots try to keep an unfamiliar Brazil side - and one that will be much changed as the game goes on - at bay. Under 2.5 Goals is surprisingly available to back at [2.2] and represents the best way of making a profit from this game - four of Brazil's last five international friendlies have ended this way.
In the Correct Score market, the 1-0 - available to back at [8.4] - and 2-0 ([6.8]) to Brazil options are worth considering, though I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid on the 0-0 scoreline at [17.0].
Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.2]
With such a long break between international matches it can be difficult to keep up to speed with Fabio Capello's team. Michael Cox assesses the 12 matches England have played in the last year and makes four key conclusions....
Wales hit by injury blow as Spurs star is omitted from squad for Saturday's match......
After spending a year out of the job, John Terry has been reinstated as England captain on a permanent basis....
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Will Greenwood: Beating Scotland and why change is good
Memories / Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
"That's my try!"
Will reflects on a memorable score against the Scots and explains why a team that can absorb change is often a winning team...
England v Scotland at Twickenham is always a great occasion but, as a player, I used to really enjoy the trip north of the border. That may have a lot to do with the fact that I never lost at Murrayfield but it was always a great place to go to, a fantastic stadium, filled with a passionate crowd. There was always a top night out in Edinburgh afterwards too.
I played against Scotland at Twickenham in 2001 and 2003. I scored a memorable try in the '01 fixture which was all about Jason Robinson's pace and finesse. Robbo came off the bench for only his second international appearance; I'd seen him play against Italy a fortnight before and noted how quick he was in training but he really was an explosive talent. If he took off there was no point in trying to keep up with him. The key was to run down the middle in the hope that he would make the most of my support. That's exactly what happened and I scored between the sticks, untouched from 50 yards. Of course, I had Austin Healy in my ear, saying: "That was my try."
Robbo became an important player in a great team but one of our key strengths under Clive Woodward was the way we absorbed changes. That challenge now faces the current England side.
Changes are part of a winning team's progress. While most people were in agreement in 2003 about the starting team, the side was never adversely affected by late changes, injuries, or week to week form. The ability to absorb change is a strength.
This weekend, Johnno is likely to make changes, if not to the starting line-up then certainly as the game against Scotland progresses. International rugby is no longer a 15 man game, it's all about building a strong 30 man squad with no weak links. Nowadays, you need two teams.
*
To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.
Will reflects on a memorable score against the Scots and explains why a team that can absorb change is often a winning team......
Will knows what it takes to beat France, having done it plenty of times at Twickenham. He also knows that there's a fine art to team changes and believes the French coach is being indecisive rather than bold......
Will Greenwood reveals his enduring affection for Italy and explains why he's more comfortable watching England beat the Azzurri from the sidelines than running in multiple tries......
Friday, March 11, 2011
Will Greenwood: England will beat Scotland to set up Slam decider
Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Andy Robinson is unlikely to have much to smile about on Saturday
"Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity."
Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team.
If Scotland win at Twickenham this Sunday they will be the biggest party poopers in Six Nations history. England fans want to see their team set up a Grand Slam decider in Dublin next week and Johnno's men will be gutted if they blow their chances here.
The odds on an England Grand Slam narrowed to [1.63] after their round three win against France and teams all over the world now see England as a formidable force. The Southern Hemisphere sides are watching and they certainly don't want to see England going to the World Cup with a Slam under their belts.
I don't fancy Scotland's chances of getting anything against England. At [13.0], Betfair punters agree. Scotland improved in their narrow defeat to Ireland but they showed again that they struggle to play well for 80 minutes. And they haven't won at Twickenham since 1983.
If you had to write a textbook on how not to start a rugby match, this Scotland side would offer a perfect case study. They've conceded a try in the first ten minutes in seven of their last nine matches. That's astonishing and explains why 0-10 Minutes is [1.8] favourite in the 1st Try Odds market. Well worth a small wager based on those stats.
Before I get accused of being too negative about the Scots, I should say that there is plenty that I like about them. Andy Robinson is a terrific coach and he has unearthed some quality talent. Everybody knows how good Scotland's back row is but I also feel that, with his peerless kicking precision, Dan Parks is a seriously under-rated fly-half. They need to prove that they can perform consistently, rather than playing well for 40 minutes before folding.
England will win on Saturday and the only question is by how much. At times they were second best against France but the ability to play badly and prevail often defines great teams. Against Scotland, England's biggest obstacle to success is themselves, but I believe they can make the most of this Grand Slam opportunity.
England will win comfortably. The match takes place on Sunday so, with no break next week, there's only six days before that potential Slam decider in Dublin. For that reason, if the Red Rose establish an unassailable lead, I expect Johnno to make a slew of second half changes. That might disrupt continuity but I doubt it and I'm confident backing England to win by over 12.5 points at [1.34].
Recommended bet:
Back England to win by over 12.5 @ [1.34].
Back 0-10 Minutes @ [1.8] in 1st Try Odds.
*
To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.
Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....
Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...
Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?...
Monday, February 28, 2011
Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Ireland
Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Will Andy Robinson get a response from his players?
"Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I’d much prefer to back the unders in the total points market."
Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?
For someone who relies heavily on statistical analysis, Scotland's encounter with Ireland at Murrayfield on Sunday is somewhat tricky. All the analysis in the world will not gain access in to the minds of the Scottish players, who threw away a gilt-edged opportunity to beat Wales a fortnight ago, and my money with it.
I will confess here that I lost a fair chunk on Andy Robinson's men, but having poured over the match statistics it is fair to say that it was simply one of those things that as a punter one has to take on the chin.
Scotland beat twice as many defenders as Wales in their 24-6 defeat. They made more clean breaks, they offloaded three times as often and made twice as many metres with the ball in hand. Although their scrum creaked at the outset, they turned over Wales twice against the head, too. And yet despite this superiority, and a two-man advantage after Lee Byrne and Bardley Davies were sent to the sin bin, they made 19 errors of such horrendous importance that they came off a distinct second best on the scoreboard.
Robinson was rightly livid, and has made seven changes that look to have strengthened Scotland's hand. Chris Paterson, Scotland's most capped player, will bring some much needed calm at full back, as well as some dead-eyed accuracy with the boot. Half backs Mike Blair and Ruaridh Jackson will bring a bit of devil to Scotland's play going forward and the fit again Richie Gray and Johnnie Beattie, who has recovered from shoulder surgery, will ensure the pack does not take a step backwards. Sean Lamont is also brought in, but as the Northampton back went 20 Tests without scoring a try until he crossed in Paris in round one, he makes Mark Cueto look dangerous.
And yet, as is Scotland's lot in the Six Nations, they have been bitterly unlucky. As a Christian, the God-fearing Euan Murray will not feature, and the best player on the park two weeks ago, Rory Lamont, misses out through injury. Joe Ansbro, who was superb against France and laughable against Wales, is also injured.
For their part, I thought Ireland were just as good as France in Dublin. The 25-22 scoreline reflects that, and if Gordon D'Arcy had not missed that tackle on Aurelien Rougerie in the 53rd minute to send over Maxime Medard, Ireland would probably have won. To show how close the margins are between defeat and victory, the Leinster man made nine tackles in that match, and only missed Rougerie.
Declan Kidney, the Ireland coach, has named Ronan O'Gara at fly-half, suggesting heavily that Ireland intend to play for position and put so much pressure on Scotland that they crack once again. As one punter on Twitter pointed out, however, Ireland have conceded far too many penalties recently for that to be totally effective and this looks to have all the ingredients of an arm-wrestle.
Having crunched the numbers, I firmly believe that this should be a scratch match. My database indicates that matches of similar nature to this in past tournaments have resulted in the home side receiving no more than a three-point start, too. Scotland are by no means bomb-proof, however. Under Robinson they have only twice scored more points in the second half than in the first half, strongly suggesting that the English coach needs to stop his squad eating too many deep-fried Mars bars and do more bleep tests.
This is likely to be an edgy contest, decided by two strong goal-kickers. Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I'd much prefer to back the unders in the total points market. That way if Scotland put in another horror show and collapse in the second half through lack of fitness I will not be so deflated.
Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?...
Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...
Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Wales
Match Previews / Stuart Jones / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
James Hook is tackled by Alastair Hellock in last year's fixture
"Alastair Kellock has emerged as a genuine leader and forms a promising partnership with Richie Gray that looks set to cause Wales serious problems at line-out time."
They may have lost last weekend but Scotland are a team on the up, according to Stuart Jones. Wales, meanwhile, are in a world of trouble...
After opening week defeats, Saturday's clash between Scotland and Wales carries massive importance for both sides, with a win vital if either team is to stand any chance of taking the title. Despite the home side suffering a heavier defeat last weekend, it is Wales who will be under huge pressure at Murrayfield.
Scotland are undoubtedly very much on the up under Andy Robinson, and, after a successful autumn series that included a victory over South Africa, they look set to get their first Six Nations win of 2011 under their belts.
The Scots have finally found some steel up-front with their most improved area being the second row. Alastair Kellock has emerged as a genuine leader and forms a very promising partnership with Richie Gray, one that looks set to cause Wales serious problems at line-out time. While Scotland struggled in the scrums against France, they are unlikely to have anywhere near the same problems against Wales who are missing world-class props Jenkins and Jones.
The away side can't even look to the back-row to get them going as their trio were no match for England last week and Scotland may well possess one of the strongest units in the competition. Beattie, Barclay, and Hines mix brutal force with surprising deftness and, ably assisted by Richie Gray's mobility, are likely to gain far greater yardage than their opposite numbers.
Another big plus for Scotland is their fairly fresh-looking backline, with De Luca and Ansbro providing a surprising amount of quality against France, while the gifted Max Evans will always cause problems out wide. Their strong defensive efforts could be more important, though, and if they shut the big Wales talents out, Scotland will offer far too much up-front for their rivals.
As usual with Wales, though, a beaten pack does not always equal an impossible task. They still have players in the backline capable of blowing holes wide open and Scotland will have to be on their toes. Davies and Roberts are big runner, and if they, along with the talented James Hook at 10, can get over the gain line, gaps may well open up for Shane Williams and co.
It's hard to see Wales repeating their extraordinarily dramatic win in this fixture last season and I am looking to take them on in the main handicap market this weekend.
Recommended bets:
Back Scotland - 2.5 pts @ [1.91]
Friday, February 4, 2011
Six Nations Betting Preview: France v Scotland
Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Is this the Scots' chance to end their miserable Parisian run?
"Scotland still lack incisive scoring ability and I’d prefer to go low in the total points market at 42.5, safe in the knowledge that Robinson’s side will make this a brutal test."
Andy Robinson has instilled in his team a steeliness that gives them a genuine chance of winning in Paris this weekend, says Geoffrey Riddle.
Scotland head over the Channel this weekend in the hope of overturning one of the worst records in Six Nations history. During the last 42 years of travelling to Paris, Scotland have just two wins to show for all the painful defeats that France have dished out.
There have been false dawns aplenty, many of which I have fallen for, but the evidence is there for all to see that Andy Robinson's well-drilled side have the best opportunity in Six Nations history of turning the tide.
Scotland's 23-20 victory last season over Ireland that denied them the Triple Crown in the final game at Croke Park provided the springboard to the sensational summer tour win over Argentina. It was the first tour victory for Scotland in their history and proves conclusively that Robinson has instilled a steeliness in his troops that has long been lacking.
Scotland have been handicap winners in eight of the 13 matches, and six of the last nine, that Robinson has presided over, and although there is a danger that the layers are waking up Scotland are certainly priced on the cusp of providing value in the 13.5-point market on Betfair.
According to the IRB rankings, Scotland have never been rated closer to France in the Six Nations. Just 0.46 points separate the two sides, the smallest since the 22-13 defeat in Paris in 2009. That day Scotland received a 15-point start by the bookmakers and were considered 2.79 points inferior. You do the math, as the Americans might say.
Robinson has also underlined the importance of a fast start, and his team have opened the scoring in nine matches under Robinson. It brings about the possibility that Scotland can strike first blood, and if they can withstand the inevitable French backlash early on they will be in pole position.
Robinson has stocked his forward larder with heavies, and so determined is he to face up to Les Bleus in front of the Parisian crowd that he has named beefcake Nathan Hines on the flank. France are not without their bruisers, either, and parity will not be good enough if Scotland are to cling on to France's coat-tails.
Marc Lievremont's side are in an awful run of form. The knives were sharpened with every try that Australia ran in during the final autumn international when Les Bleus were 16-16 with the Wallabies at half-time in Paris, before shipping 46 unanswered points.
To be level with Australia at the break was no mean feat, and at the end of a brutal four weeks just the thought that Australia were going to pull away was probably enough for the French to fold like an origami expert.
Like Wales, we have no idea what France are capable of this championship and as such it is too much of a leap of faith for me to invest my hard earned in something so intangible.
Scotland still lack incisive scoring ability, however, and I'd prefer to go low in the total points market at 42.5, safe in the knowledge that Robinson's side will make this a brutal test. If the French duck out, then so much the better.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)