England: Rio is out of qualifiers but should go to Brazil

"There is no doubt that Ferdinand has been the standout English defender in the Premier League for his club this season, and his attempted recall was no surprise at all."

Rio Ferdinand won't play this week after all, but the decision to reinstate the forgotten man had to happen, suggests Christian Crowther...

England could probably get away with playing Jermain Defoe and Daniel Sturridge at centre back against San Marino and still win on Friday. The Three Lions can be found at 1.011/100 to claim three points from Friday's visit.

However, while Roy Hodgson probably won't opt for this pairing despite the apparent ease of task, the manager's U-turn on Rio Ferdinand - who has since withdrawn alongside Michael Dawson to be replaced by Joleon Lescott and Steven Caulker - begs the question of just who his preferred partnership for these qualifiers is?

And not just for these qualifiers but looking ahead to Brazil 2014?

Despite performing at a consistently high level for Spurs in recent seasons, Dawson's injury-blighted career has ensured his impact on the international scene has been limited to a skimpy tally of four caps.

There is no doubt that Ferdinand has been the standout English defender in the Premier League for his club this season, and his attempted recall was no surprise at all.

In fact, it's a real necessity rather than a regression. Since John Terry's retirement, Hodgson has used five other players for England in Rio's position and two of them are doubts for these vital qualifiers.

Everton's Phil Jagielka, who started both post-Terry qualifiers, will definitely miss the upcoming games, while there are question marks over Gary Cahill's fitness after picking up a knee injury against West Ham, though he did finish the match.

Youngsters Chris Smalling and Steven Caulker have both earned involvement in recent friendlies, though Smalling has mainly filled in at right back for Manchester United this term, whereas Caulker was pencilled in for the Under-21s until Ferdinand's withdrawal.

This leaves Joleon Lescott as the only other viable alternative, though the fact that the out-of-favour Manchester City player was brought in as a replacement for Dawson indicates that he's fallen out of Hodgson's thoughts as well as Roberto Mancini's.

Despite his age of 34, Ferdinand is still England's best defender and, if he continues to play at the same level next season, he has to be included in the World Cup party should England qualify.

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Against All Odds: Goooooooooooooooooals galore in Brazil tonight

"Marcelo Oliveira’s side have conceded a staggering 37 goals so far, which is four worse than any other team."

Lay Under 2.5 goals in Coritiba v Internacional @ 1.834/5

Coritiba host Internacional in the Brazilian Campeonato tonight with under 2.5 goals trading at odds-on. But given that five of Cortibia's last seven home games have had three goals or more, Paul Robinson believes that's definitely a price worth laying.

Sometimes in betting everything you touch turns to gold and that's the kind of run we're on right now. Our bet was a winner after just 22 minutes of play yesterday and it now means we've had five winners in a row and seven out of the last eight.

Coritiba are having a disappointing campaign to date and they are down in 15th place after picking up just 19 points from their opening 19 fixtures. One look at the goals against column tells us why they are struggling as Marcelo Oliveira's side have conceded a staggering 37 goals so far, which is four worse than any other team. If they could just tighten up a little bit then they would surely move up the table as they've scored on 31 occasions themselves, which is the joint second best offensive record. Their last four have all gone over 2.5, in fact their last three actually went over 3.5, and they defeated Cruzeiro 4-0 in their previous home match.

Internacional are up in sixth place and they're almost the complete opposite of Coritiba, which is why we're getting such a good price to lay on unders.

Fernandão's men are up in sixth place with 31 points from their 19 fixtures and with just 15 conceded, they have the third best defensive record in the division. It's a good job they keep it that tight as they don't score many either; 22 in 19 at an average of just over one per game.

Internacional's statistics don't really give us much encouragement to predict a goal fest here, but I'm somewhat confident that Coritiba can drag them down to their level of defending and get them to open up a bit more. 1.834/5 about under 2.5 goals is simply far too short here and well worth taking on, which is why I'm making it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Coritiba v Internacional @ 1.834/5

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World Cup 2014 Betting: Brazil look anything but world champs

World Cup 2014 / Jonathan Wilson / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Great expectations. Santos pair Neymar and Ganso will be under pressure to perform for Brazil in 2014.

"Mano Menezes’s side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots,
turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz
Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game."

After a slightly laboured and lucky win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, Jonathan Wilson is distinctly unimpressed with this Brazil side, hosts and favourites of the 2014 World Cup. There's a long road of hard work ahead for coach Mano Menezes...

Friendlies, of course, are never particularly reliable guides. There's always need for caution when assessing them, but the fact is that Brazil, for the next two and a bit years, will have nothing else to go on. That's the disadvantage of holding the Copa America the year after the World Cup.

It may attract more attention than it would if it clashed with the Euros, but it also means that when a South American team hosts the World Cup, it must endure three years of largely meaningless games in preparation. Anybody who watched Tuesday's 2-1 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, though, may think it's just as well they have so long to prepare. Certainly at this stage, the [4.6] on offer for them to be champions looks dreadfully short.

Mano Menezes's side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots, turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game. The bobbly pitch in St Gallen didn't help, but this was as far from fluency as its possible to get.

There were nods to the Brazil of stereotype - a goal from an overlapping full-back and some comically bad defending (although the idea of Brazil's inability to defend is something of a myth: they've actually conceded fewer goals per game at World Cups than (West) Germany) - but that aside, this was another stodgy, fitful performance, a win salvaged only by Sasa Papac's late own goal.

While that was unfortunate, and largely attributable to a divot, there had been a sense it had been coming, as the second-half arrival of Paulo Henrique Ganso to replace Ronaldinho shifted the game in Brazil's favour. At 22, Ganso is young and exciting, but his success brings with it a great sigh of familiarity.

For the truth is that Ganso is an archetype, and example of the problems of Brazilian football. He suffered injuries last season, but excelled in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final as Santos beat Penarol. He went to the Copa America with the hopes of the nation of his shoulders - and did nothing. Defences that squeezed tight on him, that played a pressing game, seemed to leave him bewildered. He could not cope with the physical attention he received from - particularly - Paraguay. It would be absurd to blame him for Brazil's quarter-final exit, but not more absurd than to expect him to somehow carry Brazil to glory in two years time. "He is winning back confidence, the confidence that we always had that he could be one of the great midfield creators that Brazilian football has produced in the last few years," said Menezes.

Neymar, the Mohican-haired 20 year old, of course is the other great young hope, another member of that Santos side. He is talented, of course, but he too could probably do with a year of toughening up in Europe before the tournament - and he is not helped by the likes of Pele overhyping him. "He struggled to adapt to the game, to understand how to play against opponents with those characteristics," Menezes
acknowledged.

In some ways, though, the bigger problems are defensive. Lucio, at last, has been written off as too slow - something that was clear in the Copa America as he laboured to cover for the surges of Dani Alves. Thiago Silva remains arguably the best central defender in the world, but he requires a partner. On the evidence of Tuesday, it is not David Luiz, a player prone to wandering upfield at unpredictable intervals and seemingly incapable of holding a basic defensive line. Perhaps Dede, the much-hyped 23-year-old Vasco da Gama centre-back, will prove the answer.

For Bosnia, meanwhile, it was another case of crumbling at the last when something significant was in reach. A draw against Brazil is neither here nor there in the greater scheme of things, of course, but to concede an injury-time own-goal after successive play-off defeats in qualifiers begins to seem like a pattern. Drawn with Greece,
Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein in World Cup qualifying, though, and with a side reaching maturity they will rarely have a better chance of reaching the finals. They are [3.4] to top their group.

The hosts should triumph, but it's backing both teams to score that provides the best route to profit in this World Cup qualifier, argues Michael Lintorn....

There's a reason why there are more South American teams at World Cups than African or Asian ones and it has to do with performance. Here's how the likes of Argentina and Uruguay are doing so far in the ongoing...

It's never easy leaving Paraguay with three points but Uruguay are difficult to resist on current form at [2.84], reckons Michael Lintorn......

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US Open Stat Attack: Boy from Brazil can upset home fans

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will the sun set on Ginepri's challenge?

"Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent."

Ben Caudell explains why he expects an in-form Brazilian to upset an ailing American at Flushing Meadow today. Meanwhile, there's a lay of the day in the women's draw...

Five Reasons to Back

Joao Souza (BRA) to defeat Robby Ginepri (USA) @ [2.68]

• The 23-year-old Brazilian has hit a purple patch of form, winning nine of his last 11 matches, including making it through three rounds of qualifying to leap into the US Open first round proper for the first time in his fledging career.

• Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent. Almost a year ago, Ginepri underwent left arm surgery after a biking accident. The American has been back in action since June and his results have been mixed; however, he has been unable to defeat a player ranked in the top 100.

• The hard courts at Flushing Meadows are reasonably slow and this can only favour the Brazilian who will be fitter and more accustomed to playing best of five sets. Ginepri is unlikely to be in peak physical condition and I believe he'll struggle to win three sets, especially as he has been away for so long. His last Grand Slam win came back in May 2009 at the French Open.

• Souza has a superior surface rating and match statistics, winning 63% within the last 12 months compared with 46% for Ginepri.

• Souza reached the semi-final of Kitzbuhel at the end of July, eventually losing to Robin Haase in three sets, after going on a six match winning streak. Ginepri has lost to players such as James Ward, ranked 174, and Ryyne Williams ranked 608.

2-0 lay of the day - lay Shuai Peng 2-0 v Tsvetana Pironkova @ [1.81]

• Peng leads the head-to-head 1-0 but Pironkova took the first set in Hobart 2011
• Pironkova has a good record at Grand Slams (7-3), reaching the 2011 Wimbledon quarter-final before losing to the eventual champion Petra Kvitova in three sets
• Peng has withdrawn from her last two hard-court tournaments, Cincinnati and Toronto, due to an unknown injury.

Sean Calvert tells us why Sabine Lisicki should be far too strong for her multiple Grand Slam winner opponent tonight and what other good bets lie in wait for us on day three of the US Open....

"And I'm on Kavcic tonight, you know my stats don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right...to oppose Ivan Ljubicic", Ben Caudell chants from underneath his pile of stats books. Here are today's two bets....

Sean's buzzing after a successful start to a fortnight at Flushing Meadows. Can he land another pair of value bets on day two?...

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Copa America Diary: Paraguay must tighten up against Brazil

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay fans prepare to cheer on their team against the defending champions

"Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since last year’s World Cup, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals."

Tim Vickery marvels at Brazil's strength in depth and wonders if Paraguay can cut out the defenisves lapses that have cost them so far. Meanwhile, could Venezuela shock Chile?

Few teams in the world are capable of what Brazil did last Wednesday. For much of the game against Ecuador they were dismal, horribly slow and laboured. Their goalkeeper had an off night. And yet they still won in comfort.

Granted, it was only Ecuador, a team experiencing problems in both penalty areas. But even so, what stands out about Brazil is the depth of individual talent and athleticism through the team - Argentina, for example, would kill to have a full-back with half the attacking threat of a Maicon or a Daniel Alves. So however poor the collective performance, there is always the chance that a rapid counter-attack or a solo moment of magic could change the scenario.

Last Saturday, Paraguay went into the 89th minute holding a 2-1 lead against Brazil, and then were victims of one such moment, Ganso's pass setting up Fred for the equaliser. Paraguay's template for today's match in La Plata will almost certainly be the same. They will seek to close down Brazil's full backs - and hope that the tricky Estigarribia down the left proves as effective against Maicon as he was last week against Daniel Alves.

Coach Gerardo Martino will want to win the ball high up the field and break quickly. A concern is the latest injury suffered by Roque Santa Cruz, man of the match last Saturday - though if he fails to recover Nelson Haedo Valdez is a lively replacement. And Brazil have an important injury doubt of their own, key centre back Thiago Silva struggling to be fit in time.

The message from the Paraguay camp is that today's game is their equivalent of last year's World Cup quarter-final, when they pushed eventual champions Spain all the way before going down 1-0. Perhaps the fear is that the memories of giving away a late equaliser last Saturday are fresher. Martino confessed that his side were still suffering the trauma of that goal when they astonishingly allowed Venezuela to draw on Wednesday despite going into the last five minutes with a 3-1 lead. There will be no repeat of the back three formation used at the start of the Venezuela match - but will there be a repeat of late defensive jitters if Paraguay are holding a lead towards the end against Brazil? The fact that extra time will now be played if scores are level after 90 minutes - an innovation in the Copa - surely tips the balance all the more in the direction of the favourites.

Meanwhile, Chile are clear favourites against Venezuela in San Juan, where the red hordes will once more cross the border to roar on their team. Earlier this week Chile's former great striker Ivan Zamorano said that he would give almost anything from his own career for the chance to play just 15 minutes with the current side - an indication of the enthusiasm Chile are generating.

That defensive unit, though, continues to be a concern. And against Paraguay last Wednesday Venezuela not only gave a demonstration of their fighting spirit and self -esteem but also showed their strength in depth, making five changes with no appreciative loss of performance. This is the consequence of work carried out over a number of years - Venezuela qualified for the 2009 World Youth Cup, and have been feeding in players from that generation to the senior side. They are no longer the whipping boys, and though Chile are quite rightly favourites, Venezuela [6.2] are worth a look

Bet of the day: I'm going to go for over 3.5 goals in the Brazil-Paraguay game [3.85]. Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since his mistake in last year's World Cup quarter-final, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals.

It's hardly the most glamorous of the quarter-finals but this intriguing clash in San Juan presents some outstanding betting opportunities for Copa America followers, writes James Eastham....

Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time...

There are plenty of reasons to think Uruguay are over-priced to knock out tournament favourites and hosts Argentina, while a surprise could also be on the cards when jollies Colombia face Peru....

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Copa America Betting: Brazil v Paraguay

Copa America / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nestor Ortigoza is Paraguay's key player

"If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao’s best route to goal might be with Maicon"

Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time

Brazil

Thiago Silva's participation is doubtful after he missed training on Friday with a thigh injury. Benfica's Luisao or Chelsea's David Luiz would be the most likely replacements to join captain Lucio in central defence.

Maicon will probably keep his place at right-back ahead of Dani Alves, who made one of the mistakes that have led to Brazil's statistically sound defence conceding twice in each of their last two group games. Goalkeeper Julio Cesar has also been unusually error-prone.

Mario Menezes' other change might be to bring Jadson, who connected well with the playmaker Ganso against Paraguay last time, back into the team for Robinho.

Paraguay

Paraguay are perhaps the only team in this low-scoring tournament to have enhanced their reputation for attacking football. Their stock is now high because their starting point was low - five matches in South Africa last summer produced only five goals for them and their opponents - but the skilful midfield play of San Lorenzo's Nestor Ortigoza should not be ignored.

Gerard Martino, the coach, cannot rely on defensive errors by Brazil again. To make the semi-finals, he must recover his team's old defensive solidity without diminishing Ortigoza's creative influence.

Match Odds

Brazil are [1.66] favourites to win in 90 minutes, despite being a minute away from losing to Paraguay in Cordoba last Saturday.

Menezes' four-man offensive unit seemed to have learnt a bit more about each other in the intervening victory over Ecuador.

Reviewing Paraguay's five tournament goals so far, they have come from defensive mistakes (two by Brazil, one by Venezuela) and set pieces (a corner and a free-kick near the corner flag against Venezuela).

Centre-forward Lucas Barrios did not have a single shot on goal against Brazil last time out. Ecuador shut the entire team out in a goalless draw. If Lucio organises his defence properly at set pieces and the rest of the back four stays focused on its defensive duties, Brazil should outscore them.

Over/Under Goals

Quarter-finals have often been high-scoring in recent Copa Americas. Since their introduction in 1993, 17/28 have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Brazil's last two matches have included ten goals - that's as many as we saw in six Group A games and six Group C games. Paraguay's most recent outings have been just as high-octane, drawing their final Group B game 3-3 with Venezuela.

Six of the teams' ten meetings this century have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which is a [2.10] shot for this game. It is a tempting play, but risky until we know how Martino is going to set up Paraguay.

To Score

Neymar and Alexandre Pato each scored twice in Brazil's 4-2 win over Ecuador. It is popular to demarcate Brazil's attacking unit as a quarter, but these two are much more likely goalscorers than Ganso, Robinho or Jadson. Neymar and Pato took nine of the team's 13 shots against Ecuador and, if you back both of them to score anytime, you'll make a profit if either one of them find the back of the net.

Maicon, the right-back, took two of the other four shots against Ecuador. Both of them were on target. If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao's best route to goal might be with Maicon around the outside. [12.0] would be a good price on a player who has scored six times in 63 internationals.

Best Bet: Back Brazil @ [1.66] to win?
Recommended Bet: Back Maicon To Score @ [12.0]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

There are plenty of reasons to think Uruguay are over-priced to knock out tournament favourites and hosts Argentina, while a surprise could also be on the cards when jollies Colombia face Peru....

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Copa America Betting: Brazil complete quarter-final line-up

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Neymar felt he delivered his Santos form as Brazil beat Ecuador 4-2

"Despite their unconvincing early form, Brazil are unsurprisingly still rated the most likely Group B participants to take the trophy at [4.0]."

Brazil, Venezuela and Paraguay all progressed to the quarter-finals on a hectic final day in Group B, and two of those sides will renew acquaintances this weekend.

The main theme of the Copa America group stage was that of the favourites starting unthinkably slowly and then raising their game when it mattered most and Brazil kept it alive with a 4-2 victory over Ecuador.

The holders, winners of four of the last five editions, entered their final Group B fixture knowing that defeat would end their participation but they wound up claiming top spot after two strikes from Alexandre Pato [[6.2] to be top goalscorer] and Neymar [[6.0]], the latter's first competitive goals for his country.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Mano Menezes' men though, who were twice pegged back courtesy of Felipe Caicedo by an Ecuador side who hadn't found the net in their first two matches in what was easily the most goal-littered day of the competition so far.

In the earlier encounter, Venezuela and Paraguay both booked their last-eight places with an action-packed 3-3 draw. Venezuela scored twice in the final two minutes to avoid defeat, in doing so denying Paraguay their first triumph and finishing above the World Cup quarter-finalists.

Brazil's success later in the evening made that late action even more significant as Paraguay were ranked the second-best third-placed team, a position that due to a few flaws in the format means that they now face the Group B table-toppers again, while Venezuela must meet Chile.

Despite their unconvincing early form, Brazil are unsurprisingly still rated the most likely Group B participants to take the trophy at [4.0], however even that is a big increase on the [3.3] that they were offered at before the tournament.

Venezuela's impressive performance to date hasn't altered the perception that they are the least likely nation to go all the way for the first time in their history at [95.0], while Paraguay's upcoming collision with the Selecao renders them [29.0] long shots.

The knockout rounds get underway on Saturday with Colombia clashing with Peru and an Argentina versus Uruguay showdown that the Albiceleste are [1.6] to win. Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

It would be the biggest shock in a competition of surprises if Ecuador beat the second favourites but Brazil are finally about to hit form, writes James Eastham....

After picking two winners from two recommendations on Argentina's 3-0 win over Costa Rica betting expert James Eastham runs the rule over a decisive Group B clash in Salta on Wednesday....

Uruguay followed Argentina in avoiding a humiliating group-stage exit but their failure to top Group C means that they must now negotiate a way past the hosts....

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Tim Vickery's Copa America: Argentina and Brazil renew rivalry

Copa America Team Profiles / Tim Vickery / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Are Brazil heading for a third consecutive Copa America?

"Sergio Batista’s imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona some times look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Banega links up with Messi much as Xavi does at club level."

They're the stars of South American football, fierce rivals and the top two in Betfair's Copa America market. But will Argentina and Brazil be the teams to beat once again? Tim Vickery reports.

The last two versions of the Copa America have concluded with the dream final, with Brazil ([3.35] to win this time) overcoming Argentina ([2.02]) both times, sneaking a last gasp equaliser to win on penalties in Peru in 2004, and counter-attacking their way to comfortable victory in Venezuela three years later.

If everything goes to form, and the Betfair markets are proved right, they should meet up once more to decide the destiny of the title on July 24 - and this time, of course, Argentina are favourites and will have home advantage.

They also have plenty of other things going for them. Coach Sergio Batista's imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona have moments when they look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Ever Banega links up with Lionel Messi much as Xavi does at club level. Doubts exist as to whether flank strikers Ezequiel Lavezzi and Angel Di Maria are sufficiently incisive in the penalty area, but with Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez, plus Higuain as a target man, there are plenty of attacking options.

The problems come at the other end. Argentina are unlikely to be able to sustain Barcelona-style pressing for the full 90 minutes, and as the game gets dragged back into their half, defensive problems can appear. The current crop of centre backs do not inspire great confidence, the goalkeepers even less so.

Such deficiencies are unlikely to be exposed in the first phase - Argentina have been given the easiest of the three groups - but in the knock out games, with the tension rising, that creaking defence will surely be put to the test - Brazil will certainly give it a thorough examination should they meet in the final or before.

They have a different challenge. Their defensive line looks solid - how Argentina would love a centre back with the speed, quality and quiet authority of Thiago Silva! Since Mano Menezes took over after last year's World Cup, the team have conceded just two goals in eight matches - one of them Messi's last minute winner when they met Argentina in Doha back in November.

Their problem that day - as it has been in the first year of the Menezes reign - has been to find the right attacking blend. The match against Argentina illustrated once more that the current side can struggle in the absence of a genuine centre forward, a penalty area specialist who can act as reference point and provide a platform for the likes of Neymar cutting in from behind. Leading striker Alexandre Pato scored in the first three matches after the World Cup, but is more of a mobile striker than a traditional number nine - and with the surprising omission of Leandro Damiao, the injury prone Fred is the only option of this type available.

Menezes' big hope is that time on the training ground will help his team to click, and that Santos' Paulo Henrique Ganso's recovery from injury gives him a playmaker capable of organising the attack.

His big fear, meanwhile, is that a lack of self-control might lead to red cards - as happened in the fateful World Cup quarter-final, and also in friendlies this year against France and Holland.

But if Brazil [3.3] can retain their emotional balance, then a better balance between attack and defence should make them strong candidates for a third consecutive Copa triumph, and better value than the hosts Argentina [2.02] even if they do meet in the final.

Recommended bet:

Back Brazil to win the Copa America @ [3.4]

Ecuador have failed to claim so much as a point in three of their last four Copa America appearances, but have enough talent to avoid firing another blank....

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International Friendly Betting: Scotland v Brazil

Internationals / Mike Norman / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Charlie Adam will hope to carry his impressive club form over to international level

"Under 2.5 Goals is surprisingly available to back at [2.2] and represents the best way of making a profit from this game – four of Brazil’s last five international friendlies have ended this way."

An experimental Brazil side should still be too good for a defensive-minded Scotland side says Mike Norman, but don't expect too many goals in this international friendly.

Scotland don't resume their Euro 2012 qualifying bid until September but a stern test most definitely awaits them when they face Brazil at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Scotland boss Craig Levein has added prolific Peterborough striker Craig Mackail-Smith to his squad after Stephen Naismith's withdrawal left Kenny Miller as the only fit recognised front man. Levein also has injury worries over midfield duo Scott Brown and James Morrison but both are expected to be passed fit for the game no player ever wants to miss.

Brazil coach Mano Menezes is expected to field an experimental line-up as he prepares his side for the Copa America which commences in July. AC Milan's Robinho - who captained the side in Brazil's last friendly - has been left out of the squad, whilst his club teammate Pato will miss the game because of an ankle injury. Uncapped youngster Leandro Damiao could be given his international debut in attack after impressing for his club side Internacional this season.

Scotland will be buoyed after recording back-to-back 3-0 victories over the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland respectively, but this game represents a huge step up in class and a draw is arguably the best they can hope for. The Scots are available to back at [9.8] in the Match Odds market with Brazil the overwhelming favourites at [1.43] and The Draw at [4.8].

Levein was heavily criticised for fielding a 4-6-0 formation against the Czech Republic last year, and although he is unlikely to start with an equally negative formation this time, he is expected to pack the midfield, with the impressive Charlie Adam handed the job of protecting the back four. Expect a low-scoring encounter then as the Scots try to keep an unfamiliar Brazil side - and one that will be much changed as the game goes on - at bay. Under 2.5 Goals is surprisingly available to back at [2.2] and represents the best way of making a profit from this game - four of Brazil's last five international friendlies have ended this way.

In the Correct Score market, the 1-0 - available to back at [8.4] - and 2-0 ([6.8]) to Brazil options are worth considering, though I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid on the 0-0 scoreline at [17.0].

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.2]

With such a long break between international matches it can be difficult to keep up to speed with Fabio Capello's team. Michael Cox assesses the 12 matches England have played in the last year and makes four key conclusions....

Wales hit by injury blow as Spurs star is omitted from squad for Saturday's match......

After spending a year out of the job, John Terry has been reinstated as England captain on a permanent basis....

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International Friendly Betting: France v Brazil

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Brazil's defence is strengthened by the return of Julio Cesar for the first time since last summer's World Cup.

"13 of the Selecao’s 15 friendlies with European nations have also stayed Under 2.5 Goals."

France and Brazil have produced some great games down the years, but this one is unlikely to join the canon, says Tobias Gourlay.

France have a good record against Brazil, winning their last four competitive meetings. The pair have drawn their most recent couple of friendlies together, but that shouldn't stop Laurent Blanc pursuing a fifth successive victory as France coach.

Wins are hard to come by against Brazil, however. Although they lost a friendly to Argentina in November, they have been beaten in only 4/45 such games anywhere since 2000.

"I like my team to have the ball, dictate the game and score goals. I like to see players pushing forward as a unit. It makes the game more enjoyable to play, and to watch as well, doesn't it?" Hearing that from Blanc, you might almost be tempted to watch this match.

But beware: 15 of Les Bleus' last 17 home friendlies have finished with Under 2.5 Goals. Blanc is not to blame for this, but some of his players might be.

Outside South America this century, 13 of the Selecao's 15 friendlies with European nations have also stayed Under 2.5 Goals. Again, the new coach, Mano Menezes is not directly accountable, but, even though some big-name defenders are missing from both sides - Patrice Evra, Lucio and Maicon among them - it will be a brave punter that bucks both of these trends.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.76]

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