Showing posts with label anything. Show all posts
Showing posts with label anything. Show all posts

Monday, July 16, 2012

Follow The Money: Can anything catch Fire at Southwell?

"If Dubai Dynamo can reproduce the form of his last run and take advantage of a lower handicap mark he could go close to victory today."

Back Dubai Dynamo @ 3.352/1 in the 16:05 at Ayr

Today's movers come from the meetings at Ayr and Southwell.

We start at Southwell where Relight My Fire has been backed in to 4.43/1 from 7.96/1 to win the 14:15 Nursery (Class 6) over 6f. The two-year-old colt ran reasonably well at Redcar, beaten by two lengths on softer ground and makes his handicap debut today at this modest level. With so little form in the book it is very difficult to come to any obvious predictions, but the market support suggests a positive ride is expected.

In the 14:45 Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f at the same track, Poetic Princess has drifted out to 4.03/1 from 3.02/1. The 2yo filly did not run well in her last race at Redcar and perhaps looked exposed, so this could be a market reaction to that race. She is making her debut on the fibresand, and much will be decided on how she takes to this surface. She has the most experience and runs off the lowest weight, though the market suggests she may well find at least one too good today.

Our final bet takes us to Ayr, where in the 16:05 in the Class 2 Handicap over 1m Dubai Dynamo has been supported in to 3.352/1 from 4.203/1. The 7yo gelding finished second at Ripon last time out and drops 2lb in the handicap for today's race since that run. It has to be said that Dubai Dynamo doesn't have a high win rate, with one victory in his last eight races. However, the forecast good/good-to-soft may help as his last victory was on good-to-soft and he has dropped 5lb in the last month. If he can reproduce the form of his last run and take advantage of a lower handicap mark he could go close to victory today.

Recommended Bets
Back Relight My Fire @ 4.403/1 in the 14:15 at Southwell
Lay Poetic Princess @ 4.03/1 in the 14:45 at Southwell
Back Dubai Dynamo @ 3.352/1 in the 16:05 at Ayr

There are no comments on this article.


Amazon Watches Center

Friday, March 2, 2012

World Cup 2014 Betting: Brazil look anything but world champs

World Cup 2014 RSS / / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Great expectations. Santos pair Neymar and Ganso will be under pressure to perform for Brazil in 2014.

Great expectations. Santos pair Neymar and Ganso will be under pressure to perform for Brazil in 2014.

"Mano Menezes’s side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots,
turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz
Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game."

After a slightly laboured and lucky win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, Jonathan Wilson is distinctly unimpressed with this Brazil side, hosts and favourites of the 2014 World Cup. There's a long road of hard work ahead for coach Mano Menezes...

Friendlies, of course, are never particularly reliable guides. There's always need for caution when assessing them, but the fact is that Brazil, for the next two and a bit years, will have nothing else to go on. That's the disadvantage of holding the Copa America the year after the World Cup.

It may attract more attention than it would if it clashed with the Euros, but it also means that when a South American team hosts the World Cup, it must endure three years of largely meaningless games in preparation. Anybody who watched Tuesday's 2-1 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, though, may think it's just as well they have so long to prepare. Certainly at this stage, the [4.6] on offer for them to be champions looks dreadfully short.

Mano Menezes's side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots, turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game. The bobbly pitch in St Gallen didn't help, but this was as far from fluency as its possible to get.

There were nods to the Brazil of stereotype - a goal from an overlapping full-back and some comically bad defending (although the idea of Brazil's inability to defend is something of a myth: they've actually conceded fewer goals per game at World Cups than (West) Germany) - but that aside, this was another stodgy, fitful performance, a win salvaged only by Sasa Papac's late own goal.

While that was unfortunate, and largely attributable to a divot, there had been a sense it had been coming, as the second-half arrival of Paulo Henrique Ganso to replace Ronaldinho shifted the game in Brazil's favour. At 22, Ganso is young and exciting, but his success brings with it a great sigh of familiarity.

For the truth is that Ganso is an archetype, and example of the problems of Brazilian football. He suffered injuries last season, but excelled in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final as Santos beat Penarol. He went to the Copa America with the hopes of the nation of his shoulders - and did nothing. Defences that squeezed tight on him, that played a pressing game, seemed to leave him bewildered. He could not cope with the physical attention he received from - particularly - Paraguay. It would be absurd to blame him for Brazil's quarter-final exit, but not more absurd than to expect him to somehow carry Brazil to glory in two years time. "He is winning back confidence, the confidence that we always had that he could be one of the great midfield creators that Brazilian football has produced in the last few years," said Menezes.

Neymar, the Mohican-haired 20 year old, of course is the other great young hope, another member of that Santos side. He is talented, of course, but he too could probably do with a year of toughening up in Europe before the tournament - and he is not helped by the likes of Pele overhyping him. "He struggled to adapt to the game, to understand how to play against opponents with those characteristics," Menezes
acknowledged.

In some ways, though, the bigger problems are defensive. Lucio, at last, has been written off as too slow - something that was clear in the Copa America as he laboured to cover for the surges of Dani Alves. Thiago Silva remains arguably the best central defender in the world, but he requires a partner. On the evidence of Tuesday, it is not David Luiz, a player prone to wandering upfield at unpredictable intervals and seemingly incapable of holding a basic defensive line. Perhaps Dede, the much-hyped 23-year-old Vasco da Gama centre-back, will prove the answer.

For Bosnia, meanwhile, it was another case of crumbling at the last when something significant was in reach. A draw against Brazil is neither here nor there in the greater scheme of things, of course, but to concede an injury-time own-goal after successive play-off defeats in qualifiers begins to seem like a pattern. Drawn with Greece,
Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein in World Cup qualifying, though, and with a side reaching maturity they will rarely have a better chance of reaching the finals. They are [3.4] to top their group.

The hosts should triumph, but it's backing both teams to score that provides the best route to profit in this World Cup qualifier, argues Michael Lintorn....

There's a reason why there are more South American teams at World Cups than African or Asian ones and it has to do with performance. Here's how the likes of Argentina and Uruguay are doing so far in the ongoing...

It's never easy leaving Paraguay with three points but Uruguay are difficult to resist on current form at [2.84], reckons Michael Lintorn......


Amazon Watches Center

Blue Diamond Stakes Review: Samaready for anything now

News RSS / / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mick Price's Samaready

Mick Price's Samaready

"At that level Samaready joins the outstanding juvenile and now champion sire Redoute’s Choice as the second highest Timeform rated winner of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years."

For the second year running there has been an above average winner of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield with the unbeaten More Than Ready filly Samaready dominating last Saturday's field.

Last year Australian racing embraced the brilliant colt Sepoy spreadeagling a handy line up of juveniles by over four lengths setting a new peak Timeform rating of 124 for past winners of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years. Sepoy's winning margin was also the biggest in the same period.

Last Saturday Samaready ran to a Timeform rating of 123p just 1 lb off joining Sepoy as the highest Timeform rated winner of the Group 1 feature in recent times. Nonetheless the winning performance by this filly stands out like a beacon.

The authority of the win over No Looking Back, who bought the strong Magic Millions form line to the race, was a telling part of the assessment. Samaready had the race won on the turn when she ambled up to the leaders under a tight hold from race rider Craig Newitt. The fact she was able to do this considering the fast early sectionals was just one factor in the analysis of this impressive victory.

Once Newitt asked her to extend, Samaready showed a quick turn of foot to put the race beyond issue.

Admittedly No Looking Back covered ground from a wide draw but she did have some cover and seemed to be travelling well enough on the turn to take a hand in the finish. However the winner was in another class. No Looking Back was assessed to run to 113, a pound under her Magic Millions run.

Timefigure analysis for the Blue Diamond Stakes points to a 121 rating while historical race standards analysis suggest a 123+ figure.

At that level Samaready joins the outstanding juvenile and now champion sire Redoute's Choice as the second highest Timeform rated winner of the Blue Diamond in the last 25 years.

No filly has ever run to a Timeform rating of 123 in winning a Blue Diamond. Until last week, the highest rated winning filly was the classy Alinghi who rated 120 in her 2004 victory over the Gai Waterhouse-trained Wager and World Peace.

There is an uncanny similarity between Alinghi and Samaready. Both had their debut run prior to Christmas and then spelled for an Autumn campaign. They both remained unbeaten with their Diamond wins at their third race start and both defeated a Gai Waterhouse-trained filly.

But there is little doubt Samaready is a superior filly which is quite a big statement in itself.

Once again using Alinghi as a yardstick, following her Blue Diamond win, Alinghi then scored effortlessly in the Group 2 Reisling Stakes at Rosehill before going down narrowly in the Golden Slipper Stakes finishing a close third to Dance Hero and Charge Forward with Fastnet Rock close up in fourth place.

That form line would stand up as one of the strongest Slippers in recent time and right now we have a filly rated superior to Alinghi.

Clearly there is a long way to go before Golden Slipper Day and plenty can go wrong with young horses, but there is definitely something special about Samaready.

Get free form, cards & results for Australia at timeform.com/free/

Philip Hobbs has admitted defeat in the race to get Fingal Bay to the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival......

Cirrus Des Aigles will step up his preparations for next month's Dubai World Cup night with a run in the Prix Meydan Hotel at Chantilly on Saturday......

Nicky Henderson is predicting an ultra-close fifth clash between Long Run and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup......


Amazon Watches Center