Copa America Betting: Uruguay v Paraguay

Copa America / James Eastham / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez celebrates one of his goals in Uruguay's 2-0 semi-final win over Peru

"Luis Suarez has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated:he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright."

After another profitable major tournament James Eastham picks out your best betting options for the Buenos Aires final on Sunday night.

Match Odds

How bizarre that going into the final of a major international tournament, one of the contenders has yet to actually win a game in 90 minutes. In some ways, however, it makes our job easier: it's impossible to recommend Paraguay to win the game in normal time at odds of [4.8] considering their record of five straight draws in the competition.

Both statistically and in terms of the football they have played, Uruguay are a far more appealing prospect. They brushed aside Peru in the semi-finals having defended stoutly in their quarter-final win over Argentina. Given the standards they have set, the [2.04] on Oscar Tabarez's side winning in 90 minutes is a good selection.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Paraguay's defence has been the key to their progress to the final: they played out goalless draws against Brazil in the quarter-finals and Venezuela in the semi-finals before winning on penalties on both occasions. With their back four performing so obdurately, few bettors will want to back anything other than under 2.5 goals here, especially since Uruguay have failed to break the 2.5-goal barrier in their two knock-out games (1-1 v Argentina in the quarter-finals and 2-0 v Peru in the semi-finals).

But the price of [1.53] on unders is so short that the [2.86] on overs almost becomes appealing. If pushed, I'd pick the latter, as Paraguay will obviously have to show a different side to their game (should one exist) if Uruguay open the scoring before half-time - something they've done in three of five games so far.

To Score

Luis Suarez was in magnificent form in the semis, scoring both goals in the win over Peru to underline the ability that has made him such a favourite at Anfield since he arrived on Merseyside six months ago. If Uruguay are to win this game without needing to resort to penalties, the 24-year-old striker is the man most likely to break the deadlock. He has personal as well as collective reasons to be motivated, too: he is joint-top of the scoring charts alongside Sergio Aguero (Argentina) so needs just one goal to claim the Golden Boot outright. At [2.6], Suarez looks a good price to score in normal time.

Uruguay Win to Nil

If you believe Uruguay will win in 90 minutes but are looking for a bigger price than the [2.04] mentioned in the Match Odds section, the best selection is on Uruguay to win without a conceding a goal. After all, they're facing a side that has failed to score in their last 240 minutes of football and found the net in only two of five matches in the competition. Uruguay's defence stood firm in the semi against a Peru attack that bears comparison with Paraguay's, so 'Yes' in the Uruguay Win to Nil market will attract plenty of takes at [2.88].

Best Bet: Luis Suarez in the 'To Score' market @ [2.6]
Other Recommended Bet: Uruguay to win in 90 minutes @ [2.04].

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

James Eastham has made 4.32pts profit from 23pts staked on the tournament so far (18.8% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

Neither Peru nor Venezuela has ever made it into the top three of a Copa America. Tobias Gourlay wonders which of them is more desperate for a place on the podium...

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Copa America Betting: Peru v Venezuela

Copa America / Tobias Gourlay / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

It's not war, but Paolo Guerrero is still a man you want on your side

"The popular impression of third-place playoffs as high-scoring jamborees is an accurate one"

Neither Peru nor Venezuela has ever made it into the top three of a Copa America. Tobias Gourlay wonders which of them is more desperate for a place on the podium

Peru

Juan Manuel Vargas, the captain, is suspended. He will be missed by Paolo Guerrero, the team's sole striker in all of their matches so far, and by spectators too, who would have appreciated his dashing wing-play.

Sergio Markarian has protested that he is not a defensive coach. Now is the time for him to make his case.

Venezuela

Miku made an impression coming off the bench against Paraguay in Venezuela's semi-final and Cesar Farias might reward him with a place in the starting XI for this match.

Farias has been tinkering with his team - especially its attack - throughout the tournament and it is not obvious who he will select upfront for this match.

Match Odds

Venezuela are unbeaten in 90 minutes in the tournament to date (W2-D3-L0) and the [2.50] favourites. Peru are W1-D2-L2.

Motivation is debatable in a match like this. Who wants it more, as they say. This column can't be sure.

It does know, however, that there aren't many draws in third-place playoffs: one in eight at Copa Americas and one in the most recent 16 at World Cups. Whoever you thinks going to win, back them straight.

Over/Under Goals

Peru's last 12 matches - five games in Argentina, five friendlies and a couple of semi-friendly Kirin Cup matches in Japan - have produced two goals or fewer. So have three of Venezuela's five Copa America 2011 games.

This match is being played at La Plata, where there's a bad pitch and five games so far have produced only five goals.

Under 2.5 Goals might look good at [1.88], but consider the following: 6/8 Copa America third-place playoffs have gone Over 2.5 Goals, including each of the last four.

The popular impression of third-place playoffs as high-scoring jamborees is an accurate one in World Cups too: this game has gone Over 2.5 Goals at each of the last nine tournaments.

The usual rules do not apply.

To Score

This column is more hopeful of a few goals than the market and so the goalscorer markets are an obvious place to look for more value.

Six different players have scored for Venezuela in Argentina - a wider spread than in any other team - but Peru have one outstanding candidate to score anytime.

Paolo Guerrero has found the back of the net twice already in a low-scoring tournament and has played to role of lone forward with strength, determination and no small amount of skill. If Peru are to score, it will very likely be through the Hamburg striker.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.12]
Recommended Bet: Back Paolo Guerrero To Score @ [3.70]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

After another profitable major tournament our man previews the final on Sunday....

It's 3rd/4th place play-off day today and though the host nation is treating this match as if it almost doesn't exist, it gives us a chance to have another look at some of the players who haven't had much of...

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Copa America Betting: Why Uruguay are worthy favourites

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Oscar Tabarez's continues to prove a positive influence on his Uruguay side

"Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties."

It has been a tournament littered with shocks, yet with two teams left, Uruguay are firm favourites to take the trophy. Michael Lintorn looks at whether that status is justified...

Without actually performing that well, Paraguay have reached the Copa America Final undefeated. But despite proving extremely difficult to beat, with Brazil twice failing to find a way past them, they are [3.0] outsiders to be crowned champions.

The reason for that is the huge amount of faith that punters have in Uruguay, the best performing South American nation at last summer's World Cup, who are [1.49] favourites to be the last ones standing once again, and have been responsible for 79 per cent of the money traded in the market.

Uruguay tick all the boxes when it comes to potential winners. They have the superior historical record in the competition having claimed 14 titles to Paraguay's two, the last of which was earned 32 years ago.

In addition, they have been the more impressive of the two in the latest edition, albeit having only won two of their five games in normal time, which is why they are above-evens at [2.08] to triumph in 90 minutes. All five of Paraguay's matches have finished level.

That is the main concern when it comes to backing Oscar Tabarez's side to get their hands on the trophy, especially as Paraguay have shown twice in Argentina and once at the World Cup that they have the nerves of steel required when it comes to shootouts, converting 12 of their 13 penalties.

However, while Gerardo Martino's men are yet to lose, they have faced just one other country ranked among South America's seven finest by FIFA, an out-of-form Brazil. By contrast, they have ended three of their last four meetings with Uruguay empty-handed.

Diego Forlan did the damage in their last clash but Luis Suarez will be desperate to be the difference-maker this time as he bids to pull clear of eliminated joint-top goalscorer Sergio Aguero. The Liverpool forward is the [1.25] frontrunner in that market.

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These two have reached the semi-finals against the odds - and the upsets look set to continue when they meet in the semi-final on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham....

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Copa America Betting: Paraguay progress amidst chaos

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay celebrating their shootout success before things turned nasty

"Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game."

A post-match scrap overshadowed the action on the pitch as Paraguay earned a place in Sunday's final against Uruguay by defeating Venezuela on penalties.

After the shocks of the quarter-finals, the semi-finals went the way that the odds suggested, with Paraguay joining Uruguay in Sunday's Copa America Final courtesy of a penalty shootout victory over the tournament's surprise package Venezuela.

And while the [1.49] favourites to claim the trophy, Uruguay, will be looking to make history with a record 15th title, Paraguay [[3.0]] can achieve an even more unique feat by becoming the first team to triumph in the competition without actually winning a single game.

This was Gerardo Martino's side's second straight spot-kick success and followed three draws in the group stage, meaning every single one of their encounters to date have finished level, with the [3.25] on them completing a full house in Buenos Aries sure to appeal.

If they were unfortunate not to take three points when they last met Venezuela in Group B though, seeing a 3-1 lead eradicated in the final few minutes of that match, then there is no doubt that lady luck was in their corner in the final-four collision.

Venezuela, who were [310.0] to go all the way before it all started on July 1, had a goal disallowed and hit the woodwork three times before eventually being beaten in the shootout, punished for one tame attempt by Franklin Lucena.

Their sense of injustice was strengthened by the referee's failure to dismiss Dario Veron, who went on to score the decisive penalty.

Sadly, their fine effort in this year's Copa America might not live as long in the memory as the scenes that followed their elimination. The two squads engaged in the on-the-pitch brawl that appears almost a monthly tradition in South America, which is expected to be investigated by the organisers.

As far as the final is concerned, Uruguay boast the head-to-head advantage having won three of the last four clashes, and are [2.02] to end Paraguay's drawing streak by prevailing in 90 minutes. Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

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Copa America Diary: Paraguay must tighten up against Brazil

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Paraguay fans prepare to cheer on their team against the defending champions

"Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since last year’s World Cup, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals."

Tim Vickery marvels at Brazil's strength in depth and wonders if Paraguay can cut out the defenisves lapses that have cost them so far. Meanwhile, could Venezuela shock Chile?

Few teams in the world are capable of what Brazil did last Wednesday. For much of the game against Ecuador they were dismal, horribly slow and laboured. Their goalkeeper had an off night. And yet they still won in comfort.

Granted, it was only Ecuador, a team experiencing problems in both penalty areas. But even so, what stands out about Brazil is the depth of individual talent and athleticism through the team - Argentina, for example, would kill to have a full-back with half the attacking threat of a Maicon or a Daniel Alves. So however poor the collective performance, there is always the chance that a rapid counter-attack or a solo moment of magic could change the scenario.

Last Saturday, Paraguay went into the 89th minute holding a 2-1 lead against Brazil, and then were victims of one such moment, Ganso's pass setting up Fred for the equaliser. Paraguay's template for today's match in La Plata will almost certainly be the same. They will seek to close down Brazil's full backs - and hope that the tricky Estigarribia down the left proves as effective against Maicon as he was last week against Daniel Alves.

Coach Gerardo Martino will want to win the ball high up the field and break quickly. A concern is the latest injury suffered by Roque Santa Cruz, man of the match last Saturday - though if he fails to recover Nelson Haedo Valdez is a lively replacement. And Brazil have an important injury doubt of their own, key centre back Thiago Silva struggling to be fit in time.

The message from the Paraguay camp is that today's game is their equivalent of last year's World Cup quarter-final, when they pushed eventual champions Spain all the way before going down 1-0. Perhaps the fear is that the memories of giving away a late equaliser last Saturday are fresher. Martino confessed that his side were still suffering the trauma of that goal when they astonishingly allowed Venezuela to draw on Wednesday despite going into the last five minutes with a 3-1 lead. There will be no repeat of the back three formation used at the start of the Venezuela match - but will there be a repeat of late defensive jitters if Paraguay are holding a lead towards the end against Brazil? The fact that extra time will now be played if scores are level after 90 minutes - an innovation in the Copa - surely tips the balance all the more in the direction of the favourites.

Meanwhile, Chile are clear favourites against Venezuela in San Juan, where the red hordes will once more cross the border to roar on their team. Earlier this week Chile's former great striker Ivan Zamorano said that he would give almost anything from his own career for the chance to play just 15 minutes with the current side - an indication of the enthusiasm Chile are generating.

That defensive unit, though, continues to be a concern. And against Paraguay last Wednesday Venezuela not only gave a demonstration of their fighting spirit and self -esteem but also showed their strength in depth, making five changes with no appreciative loss of performance. This is the consequence of work carried out over a number of years - Venezuela qualified for the 2009 World Youth Cup, and have been feeding in players from that generation to the senior side. They are no longer the whipping boys, and though Chile are quite rightly favourites, Venezuela [6.2] are worth a look

Bet of the day: I'm going to go for over 3.5 goals in the Brazil-Paraguay game [3.85]. Paraguay are leaking, Brazil keeper Julio Cesar has not been the same since his mistake in last year's World Cup quarter-final, and the possibility of Thiago Silva missing out increases the chances of goals.

It's hardly the most glamorous of the quarter-finals but this intriguing clash in San Juan presents some outstanding betting opportunities for Copa America followers, writes James Eastham....

Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time...

There are plenty of reasons to think Uruguay are over-priced to knock out tournament favourites and hosts Argentina, while a surprise could also be on the cards when jollies Colombia face Peru....

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Copa America Betting: Brazil v Paraguay

Copa America / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nestor Ortigoza is Paraguay's key player

"If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao’s best route to goal might be with Maicon"

Brazil and Paraguay meet for a second time in the tournament on Sunday. Tobias Gourlay fancies Mario Menezes' favourites will do better than last time

Brazil

Thiago Silva's participation is doubtful after he missed training on Friday with a thigh injury. Benfica's Luisao or Chelsea's David Luiz would be the most likely replacements to join captain Lucio in central defence.

Maicon will probably keep his place at right-back ahead of Dani Alves, who made one of the mistakes that have led to Brazil's statistically sound defence conceding twice in each of their last two group games. Goalkeeper Julio Cesar has also been unusually error-prone.

Mario Menezes' other change might be to bring Jadson, who connected well with the playmaker Ganso against Paraguay last time, back into the team for Robinho.

Paraguay

Paraguay are perhaps the only team in this low-scoring tournament to have enhanced their reputation for attacking football. Their stock is now high because their starting point was low - five matches in South Africa last summer produced only five goals for them and their opponents - but the skilful midfield play of San Lorenzo's Nestor Ortigoza should not be ignored.

Gerard Martino, the coach, cannot rely on defensive errors by Brazil again. To make the semi-finals, he must recover his team's old defensive solidity without diminishing Ortigoza's creative influence.

Match Odds

Brazil are [1.66] favourites to win in 90 minutes, despite being a minute away from losing to Paraguay in Cordoba last Saturday.

Menezes' four-man offensive unit seemed to have learnt a bit more about each other in the intervening victory over Ecuador.

Reviewing Paraguay's five tournament goals so far, they have come from defensive mistakes (two by Brazil, one by Venezuela) and set pieces (a corner and a free-kick near the corner flag against Venezuela).

Centre-forward Lucas Barrios did not have a single shot on goal against Brazil last time out. Ecuador shut the entire team out in a goalless draw. If Lucio organises his defence properly at set pieces and the rest of the back four stays focused on its defensive duties, Brazil should outscore them.

Over/Under Goals

Quarter-finals have often been high-scoring in recent Copa Americas. Since their introduction in 1993, 17/28 have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Brazil's last two matches have included ten goals - that's as many as we saw in six Group A games and six Group C games. Paraguay's most recent outings have been just as high-octane, drawing their final Group B game 3-3 with Venezuela.

Six of the teams' ten meetings this century have gone Over 2.5 Goals, which is a [2.10] shot for this game. It is a tempting play, but risky until we know how Martino is going to set up Paraguay.

To Score

Neymar and Alexandre Pato each scored twice in Brazil's 4-2 win over Ecuador. It is popular to demarcate Brazil's attacking unit as a quarter, but these two are much more likely goalscorers than Ganso, Robinho or Jadson. Neymar and Pato took nine of the team's 13 shots against Ecuador and, if you back both of them to score anytime, you'll make a profit if either one of them find the back of the net.

Maicon, the right-back, took two of the other four shots against Ecuador. Both of them were on target. If Martino puts two narrow lines of four on the pitch to stifle Brazil, the Seleccao's best route to goal might be with Maicon around the outside. [12.0] would be a good price on a player who has scored six times in 63 internationals.

Best Bet: Back Brazil @ [1.66] to win?
Recommended Bet: Back Maicon To Score @ [12.0]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

There are plenty of reasons to think Uruguay are over-priced to knock out tournament favourites and hosts Argentina, while a surprise could also be on the cards when jollies Colombia face Peru....

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Copa America Betting: Brazil complete quarter-final line-up

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Neymar felt he delivered his Santos form as Brazil beat Ecuador 4-2

"Despite their unconvincing early form, Brazil are unsurprisingly still rated the most likely Group B participants to take the trophy at [4.0]."

Brazil, Venezuela and Paraguay all progressed to the quarter-finals on a hectic final day in Group B, and two of those sides will renew acquaintances this weekend.

The main theme of the Copa America group stage was that of the favourites starting unthinkably slowly and then raising their game when it mattered most and Brazil kept it alive with a 4-2 victory over Ecuador.

The holders, winners of four of the last five editions, entered their final Group B fixture knowing that defeat would end their participation but they wound up claiming top spot after two strikes from Alexandre Pato [[6.2] to be top goalscorer] and Neymar [[6.0]], the latter's first competitive goals for his country.

It wasn't all plain sailing for Mano Menezes' men though, who were twice pegged back courtesy of Felipe Caicedo by an Ecuador side who hadn't found the net in their first two matches in what was easily the most goal-littered day of the competition so far.

In the earlier encounter, Venezuela and Paraguay both booked their last-eight places with an action-packed 3-3 draw. Venezuela scored twice in the final two minutes to avoid defeat, in doing so denying Paraguay their first triumph and finishing above the World Cup quarter-finalists.

Brazil's success later in the evening made that late action even more significant as Paraguay were ranked the second-best third-placed team, a position that due to a few flaws in the format means that they now face the Group B table-toppers again, while Venezuela must meet Chile.

Despite their unconvincing early form, Brazil are unsurprisingly still rated the most likely Group B participants to take the trophy at [4.0], however even that is a big increase on the [3.3] that they were offered at before the tournament.

Venezuela's impressive performance to date hasn't altered the perception that they are the least likely nation to go all the way for the first time in their history at [95.0], while Paraguay's upcoming collision with the Selecao renders them [29.0] long shots.

The knockout rounds get underway on Saturday with Colombia clashing with Peru and an Argentina versus Uruguay showdown that the Albiceleste are [1.6] to win. Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

It would be the biggest shock in a competition of surprises if Ecuador beat the second favourites but Brazil are finally about to hit form, writes James Eastham....

After picking two winners from two recommendations on Argentina's 3-0 win over Costa Rica betting expert James Eastham runs the rule over a decisive Group B clash in Salta on Wednesday....

Uruguay followed Argentina in avoiding a humiliating group-stage exit but their failure to top Group C means that they must now negotiate a way past the hosts....

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Copa America Diary: Derided format has somehow produced a gripping final round

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Mario Yepes (left, pictured with Abel Aguilar) marshall his defensive unit to another clean sheet

"I never imagined I’d end up spending 17 years in Brazil, and I’m booked in for the next few as well. The sudden arrival of all the Brazilian journalists has caused me to reflect on how deep my roots in the country have become - 15 years with the same girl, and I’m even missing my dog."

Tim Vickery welcomes the arrival of the Brazilian press corps as Argentina begins to feel like home and the competition finally comes to life

It was like old times in the small hours of Friday night and Saturday morning on Radio 5Live's World Football Phone In.

For the past couple of years I've been using some flash internet programme, the BBC's internal skype, to broadcast in quality. But here in Cordoba the press centre closes early and the wi fi in my hotel doesn't work, so it was back to the crackly old phone line, as lovable as vinyl.

One person texted in with a criticism of the Copa America's format, where only four of the 12 teams are eliminated in the group phase. He clearly has a point. The ten South American nations could easily be split into two groups. Inviting two more on seems principally motivated by commercial reasons - chiefly access to Mexico's considerable TV audience.

This year, though, there have been so many draws that the final round of group games could turn into something of a thriller. Who would have thought, for example, that Argentina would still be scraping around for points going into their third match? And with the other groups also tight, there is the possibility that four points might not guarantee a place in the quarter-finals. Certainly that is a chance that Colombia cannot take as they get the final round under way against Bolivia in Santa Fe - where the unfortunate public have so far sat through two goalless draws.

Bolivia need to win - but it is unclear where they are going to find a goal. They were gifted one against Argentina, but their limitations were exposed when they tried something more ambitious against Costa Rica. Colombia have yet to concede and have hardly suffered any moments of danger. Their priority will be to maintain that defensive order - another clean sheet ensures their presence in the last eight.

Meanwhile, and these are words I never thought I'd write, it's been good to meet up with the Brazilian press in Cordoba. Taken together they can come across as a loud, boorish monster, but on an individual basis there are lots of familiar faces in there, people I know from previous carnivals, as we say in this part of the world. It's nice to be able to speak Portuguese again, instead of battling through with Spanish and having people think I'm Brazilian as soon as I open my mouth.

I never imagined I'd end up spending 17 years in Brazil, and I'm booked in for the next few as well. The sudden arrival of all the Brazilian journalists has caused me to reflect on how deep my roots in the country have become - 15 years with the same girl, and I'm even missing my dog, who I was manipulated into accepting by the joint power of my girlfriend and two stepdaughters. I suppose I should face it - Rio de Janeiro is my home now, though I can hardly wait to spend a month in London in a few weeks.

First, though, there's a Copa America to enjoy, and while it has yet to truly catch fire, I have been enjoying it. Earlier in the week Uruguay coach Oscar Washington Tabarez said that the real Copa gets underway when the quarter-finals kick off. But after two draws, he is one of many coaches sweating on the last game in his bid to reach the last eight. I'm expecting Colombia's Hernan Dario Gomez to be the first to see his side book their place, while Gustavo Quinteros and his Bolivia squad will be heading for the airport.

Bet of the day: ,Colombia to keep a clean sheet [1.92]

Bolivia must play to win and Tobias Gourlay fancies their final Group A opponents, Colombia, will catch them out as a result...

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With five out of seven winners and a healthy profit on his match-by-match tipping so far, James Eastham is on a Copa America roll. Here he picks out the best wagers on Brazil's clash against Paraguay in Cordoba on Saturday....

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Copa America Betting: Colombia v Bolivia

Copa America / Tobias Gourlay / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

After two rounds of matches Colombia are yet to concede a goal in Copa America 2011

"Even if Bolivia are more daring than usual in their pursuit of three points, Colombia’s defence looks robust enough to repel them"

Bolivia must play to win and Tobias Gourlay fancies their final Group A opponents, Colombia, will catch them out as a result

Colombia

Hernan Dario Gomez's Colombia are top of Group A after beating Costa Rica 1-0 and holding Argentina to a goalless draw. They were cautious against 10-man Costa Rica and played on the counter-attack against Argentina.

A win against Bolivia would ensure they finished top of Group A, but a draw would be enough to qualify. They have a talented forward in Radamel Falcao, but lack the creativity to make many chances for him. It seems unlikely they will move to all-out attack now.

Bolivia

Gustavo Quinteros' Bolivia also held tournament favourites Argentina to a draw, but then they went and lost 2-0 to outsiders Costa Rica. They really need to win on Sunday night, even though two third-placed teams will go forward from the group stage, but they haven't won away from their high-altitude homeland since beating South Africa in a friendly more than four years ago.

Bolivia are without their quick centre-half, Ronaldo Rivero, and a midfielder, Walter Flores, for this match because they were both sent off against Costa Rica.

Match Odds

Colombia are [1.65] favourites, even though they do not need to win to qualify. Bolivia make no appeal at [6.8], given the scarcity of wins away from home and the strength of Colombia's defence.

The draw? It might be the pick of the outcomes at [3.8], but the speed of Colombia's counter-attacks will unnerve its backers if Bolivia are forced into all-out attack late in the game. In particular, the overlapping fullbacks, Allen Zuniga on the right and Pablo Armero on the left, will stretch Bolivia's narrow defence. If you like the draw, perhaps take 0-0 ([9.8]) and 1-1 ([8.0]) in the Correct Score market for a bigger payout if one of them is right.

Over/Under Goals

Nine of the tournament's first ten games have stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is a [1.70] shot for this match. Colombia's last 12 matches have been just as light on entertainment and so have Bolivia's last six.

Bolivia really need to win to qualify and this might raise a concern about - heaven forfend - an open game. But even if they are more daring than usual in their pursuit of three points, Colombia's defence looks robust enough to repel them.

Colombia Clean Sheet

Lionel Messi, Carlos Tevez and Ezequiel Lavezzi were neutralised by Colombia's well-positioned defence, which has kept clean sheets in six of the team's last nine matches.

Argentina, admittedly, are much less than the sum of their parts at the moment, but Bolivia's forwards are unlikely to succeed where Messi and colleagues failed.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.70]
Recommended Bet: Back Colombia Clean Sheet @ [2.10]

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

If it's Saturday, it's Cordoba for Tim Vickery who hits a new Argentinian town as the Copa America roadshow rolls on...

With five out of seven winners and a healthy profit on his match-by-match tipping so far, James Eastham is on a Copa America roll. Here he picks out the best wagers on Brazil's clash against Paraguay in Cordoba on Saturday....

Both sides picked up points from their opening Group B fixtures last weekend. James Eastham says there will be little to choose between them when they meet in Salta on Saturday....

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Tim Vickery's Copa America: Argentina and Brazil renew rivalry

Copa America Team Profiles / Tim Vickery / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Are Brazil heading for a third consecutive Copa America?

"Sergio Batista’s imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona some times look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Banega links up with Messi much as Xavi does at club level."

They're the stars of South American football, fierce rivals and the top two in Betfair's Copa America market. But will Argentina and Brazil be the teams to beat once again? Tim Vickery reports.

The last two versions of the Copa America have concluded with the dream final, with Brazil ([3.35] to win this time) overcoming Argentina ([2.02]) both times, sneaking a last gasp equaliser to win on penalties in Peru in 2004, and counter-attacking their way to comfortable victory in Venezuela three years later.

If everything goes to form, and the Betfair markets are proved right, they should meet up once more to decide the destiny of the title on July 24 - and this time, of course, Argentina are favourites and will have home advantage.

They also have plenty of other things going for them. Coach Sergio Batista's imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona have moments when they look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Ever Banega links up with Lionel Messi much as Xavi does at club level. Doubts exist as to whether flank strikers Ezequiel Lavezzi and Angel Di Maria are sufficiently incisive in the penalty area, but with Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez, plus Higuain as a target man, there are plenty of attacking options.

The problems come at the other end. Argentina are unlikely to be able to sustain Barcelona-style pressing for the full 90 minutes, and as the game gets dragged back into their half, defensive problems can appear. The current crop of centre backs do not inspire great confidence, the goalkeepers even less so.

Such deficiencies are unlikely to be exposed in the first phase - Argentina have been given the easiest of the three groups - but in the knock out games, with the tension rising, that creaking defence will surely be put to the test - Brazil will certainly give it a thorough examination should they meet in the final or before.

They have a different challenge. Their defensive line looks solid - how Argentina would love a centre back with the speed, quality and quiet authority of Thiago Silva! Since Mano Menezes took over after last year's World Cup, the team have conceded just two goals in eight matches - one of them Messi's last minute winner when they met Argentina in Doha back in November.

Their problem that day - as it has been in the first year of the Menezes reign - has been to find the right attacking blend. The match against Argentina illustrated once more that the current side can struggle in the absence of a genuine centre forward, a penalty area specialist who can act as reference point and provide a platform for the likes of Neymar cutting in from behind. Leading striker Alexandre Pato scored in the first three matches after the World Cup, but is more of a mobile striker than a traditional number nine - and with the surprising omission of Leandro Damiao, the injury prone Fred is the only option of this type available.

Menezes' big hope is that time on the training ground will help his team to click, and that Santos' Paulo Henrique Ganso's recovery from injury gives him a playmaker capable of organising the attack.

His big fear, meanwhile, is that a lack of self-control might lead to red cards - as happened in the fateful World Cup quarter-final, and also in friendlies this year against France and Holland.

But if Brazil [3.3] can retain their emotional balance, then a better balance between attack and defence should make them strong candidates for a third consecutive Copa triumph, and better value than the hosts Argentina [2.02] even if they do meet in the final.

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Ecuador have failed to claim so much as a point in three of their last four Copa America appearances, but have enough talent to avoid firing another blank....

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Tim Vickery: Copa America 2011 could be a classic

Copa America / Tim Vickery / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Brazil and Argentina will be key contenders in 2011

"History indicates that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief."

The Copa America, which gets underway on July 1, is one of the world's greatest football tournaments and, with more teams than ever capable of winning, Betfair's new columnist Tim Vickery believes this one could be a cracker.

Football's oldest continental tournament, the Copa America has had an uneven history, at times held annually, at others falling into neglect.

One of the major points of interest at this year's tournament is that the Copa has found a perfect slot. Now staged every four years, the competition kicks off a new cycle of competitive action. After a year of friendlies, blooding new coaches and boosting the bank balance, the Copa is swiftly followed by the next set of South America's marathon World Cup qualifiers. This means that the teams will look to emerge from Argentina with a line up ready to battle for a place in Brazil in 2014.

All over the continent, coaches have been stressing that the Copa is primarily a warm up tournament. But, injuries aside, the 10 South American teams are at full strength - unlike the two teams invited from CONCACAF, Mexico and Costa Rica, who are bringing young, experimental squads - and once the action kicks off and the adrenalin kicks in then thoughts of using the Copa for mere preparation purposes will be put aside. More sides than ever before will be dreaming of lifting the trophy aloft on July 24.

This is the other aspect that makes the 2011 Copa so fascinating - the current strength in depth of South American international football. History shows that we can certainly think of a traditional big three in the Copa - between them Argentina [2.02], Brazil [3.35] and Uruguay [12.5] have won 36 of the 42 versions of the tournament - and it is worth noting that as far as the Copa is concerned, Uruguay have never been anything but a giant. Winners in 1995, finalists in 1999, the sky blues have reached the semis in each of the last three tournaments. Given their current strength, one conclusion here is that Uruguay [13.0] are worth backing.

Outside the big three, Peru [260.00], Paraguay [38.0], Bolivia [390.00] and Colombia [32.0] share the other six titles - either on home ground or in the period when the Copa had no fixed host (the sole exception is Paraguay's 1953 win in Peru, but officially it was the Paraguayan FA who organised the competition).

A look at the past, then, would seem to indicate that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief. All look strong; hosts Argentina are under pressure to end a run of 18 years without a senior title. Brazil want to take advantage of their most serious competitive test before staging the next World Cup. Uruguay were semi-finalists in South Africa last year and have a settled side spearheaded by a phalanx of dangerous strikers.

But it would be unwise to overlook the lessons of the World Cup. Uruguay, for example, only qualified through the play-offs after finishing fifth in qualification. The evidence would seem clear; the introduction in 1996 of the marathon format of World Cup qualifiers has led to a dramatic improvement in the level of the less traditional teams. For the first time they have enjoyed the type of calendar that European teams take for granted - regular competitive games with guaranteed income, allowing them to hire top quality coaches and build a side.

The most dramatic example of this progress is Ecuador, three decades ago a South American version of Luxembourg, but part of the best 16 in the world in 2006. Venezuela's rise is no less spectacular - in the last round of the 2010 qualifiers they even managed a draw away to Brazil - who they beat comfortably in a 2008 friendly.

Chile thrilled the neutrals in the World Cup, and have a group of players who are both battle hardened and still with their best years ahead of them. The ever resilient Paraguay gave world champions Spain their toughest test in South Africa.

And countries who sat out South Africa are anxious to get back on track. Colombian football has such potential, which will come closer to being fulfilled if they can get the best out of a promising group of strikers. Peru have been in the doldrums for a while, but the signs are that in Sergio Markarian they have a top class coach capable of making them much more competitive.

So there could be some surprises along the way. Over the next few weeks the limbs will freeze through the fierce Argentine Winter. But with the strength in depth on display in the Copa, the blood will be aflame.

Despite winning four of the last five Copa America tournaments, Brazil are second favourites to be victorious in Argentina, primarily due to doubts over coach Mano Menezes....

It has been decades since Paraguay last seriously threatened in the Copa America, however last year's World Cup quarter-finals run offers hope of a sustained challenge....

1997 finalists Bolivia have achieved almost nothing in the Copa America since, but the appointment of promising coach Gustavo Quinteros gives them hope of a win at least....

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Copa America Team Guide: Bolivia

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Marcelo Martins has proven a fairly consistent scorer for Bolivia

"They haven’t won a game in the competition since 1997, exiting in the group stage on four straight occasions."

1997 finalists Bolivia have achieved almost nothing in the Copa America since, but the appointment of promising coach Gustavo Quinteros gives them hope of a win at least.

The odds
Bolivia are [30.0] to top Group A and [360.0] to win the tournament.

The past
Their two finest Copa America campaigns came as hosts, winning in the old league format in 1963 and losing the final to Brazil in 1997. Away from La Paz, there hasn't been much to celebrate though. They haven't won a game in the competition since 1997, exiting in the group stage on four straight occasions.

The coach
In Gustavo Quinteros, they have Group A's youngest and least experienced boss , but the Argentine-born former Bolivia defender has already enjoyed plenty of success, guiding all three of the Bolivian clubs he has managed since 2005 - Blooming, Bolivar and Oriente Petrolero - to domestic titles.

The rivals
While Quinteros' appointment last November appears a shrewd one, he has a daunting task bidding to end Bolivia's 14-year wait for a Copa America victory judging by their recent head-to-head record against their Group A rivals:
Argentina (W1 D1 L3)
Colombia (W0 D2 L3)
Costa Rica (W0 D0 L1 - only one meeting)

The wanted
Prolific in Brazil for Vitoria and Cruzeiro and a regular goal-getter for his country, Marcelo Martins' club career has stalled since moving to Shakhtar Donetsk in 2008, and wasn't resuscitated with loan spells with Werder Bremen and Wigan, so the 24-year-old may look to use the Copa America to earn a transfer.

The fresh face
Quinteros has opted for a mix of experience at the back and more youth going forwards and one of the most intriguing guys in the latter camp is 21-year-old midfielder Rudy Cardozo, who has already established himself at Copa Libertadores participants Bolivar and gained several international caps.

Costa Rica are Copa America saviours having agreed to fill the void left by Japan as one of the two guest nations, but they aren't expected to fare too well in Argentina....

The 2001 champions are knockout round semi-regulars, and given a decent draw and the presence of one of Europe's most in-demand forwards, should be there again....

The opportunity to stage the Copa America is by no means a guarantee of glory, with just one of the last five hosts winning the trophy, however Argentina are rated favourites....

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Copa America Team Guide: Colombia

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Colombian fans will expect big things from Porto star Radamel Falcao

"Colombia have reached the semi-finals of five of the last eight Copa America instalments."

The 2001 champions are knockout round semi-regulars, and given a decent draw and the presence of one of Europe's most in-demand forwards, should do so again.

The odds
Colombia are [5.6] to top Group A and [38.0] to win the tournament.

The past
Their only triumph came in classy fashion a decade ago on home soil when they won all six of their matches without conceding and with Victor Aristizabal scoring six times, but their recent record isn't bad either. Colombia have reached the semi-finals of five of the last eight Copa America instalments.

The coach
At the relatively young age of 55, Hernan Dario Gomez already qualifies as a veteran of international management and a decent one at that. He led his nation to the 1998 World Cup and the latter stages of two Copa America competitions in the 90s, and has since taken charge of Ecuador and Guatemala.

The rivals
Recent results against Argentina have been poor, yet three victories in 12 years against them shows that an upset is achievable, while their head-to-head advantage over the two weaker teams means that a group-stage exit would be a huge disappointment:
Argentina (W1 D0 L4)
Costa Rica (W5 D0 L0)
Bolivia (W3 D2 L0)

The wanted
Radamel Falcao is attracting interest from clubs throughout Europe after scoring 18 goals FC Porto claimed the Europa League. He has yet to show that form for his country, though a return to tournament football could fix that. Udinese defender Cristian Zapata meanwhile is a Liverpool target.

The fresh faces
In a squad low on both youngsters and players that still ply their trade in Colombia, striker Jackson Martinez is the closest thing to a potential breakout star. The 24-year-old was a consistent scorer at Medellin and has fared well in Mexico with Jaguares, while he has taken his limited chances at this level, netting three times, each in competitive games. He was linked with Wigan last summer.

The opportunity to stage the Copa America is by no means a guarantee of glory, with just one of the last five hosts winning the trophy, however Argentina are rated favourites....

Of the 12 sides taking part in July's Copa America, eight will feature Premier League players. Read on to find out the ones from your club that you'll be praying don't wow rival scouts or get injured!...

Betting.Betfair has signed up the BBC's South American football correspondent Tim Vickery to lead our Copa America coverage....

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Copa America Team Guide: Argentina

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ezequiel Lavezzi's progress is likely to be tracked by Manchester City

"The pressure is on for the host nation as they bid to halt a silverware drought that dates back to the 1993 edition of this competition."

The opportunity to stage the Copa America is by no means a guarantee of glory, with just one of the last five hosts winning the trophy, however Argentina are rated favourites.

The odds
Argentina are [1.18] to top Group A and [2.02] to win the tournament.

The past
Though the joint-most successful team ever with 14 titles, the pressure is on for the host nation as they bid to halt a silverware drought that dates back to the 1993 edition of this competition. They reached the final in both 2004 and 2007, only to suffer defeat on both occasions to the enemy Brazil.

The coach
Sergio Batista is the man who has taken on the unenviable task of succeeding Diego Maradona, a role that comes with a guarantee of constant sniping from his predecessor: "It's easy for Batista to be low profile. If he so much as crosses the border and goes to Uruguay, no one knows who he is."

The rivals
Argentina boast fairly dominant head-to-head records against each of their Group A opponents over the course of their last five encounters, justifying their incredibly short price to finish first in it:
Colombia (W4 D0 L1)
Costa Rica (W3 D2 L0)
Bolivia (W3 D1 L1)

The wanted
So many Argentine players' futures are subject to speculation, though not all are guaranteed starting spots to impress. Sergio Aguero has signalled his intention to exit Atletico Madrid and has plenty of admirers, Javier Pastore is likely to leave Palermo and Valencia could sell Ever Banega, while Ezequiel Lavezzi is a rumoured Manchester City target. And then in addition to all that, there is Carlos Tevez!

The fresh faces
Marcos Rojo and Lucas Biglia have already made it to Europe with Spartak Moscow and Anderlecht respectively but it is only since Batista's arrival that they have been given a chance to challenge for a regular place in the national side, and to date they have made the most of the opportunity.

The 2001 champions are knockout round semi-regulars, and given a decent draw and the presence of one of Europe's most in-demand forwards, should do so again....

Of the 12 sides taking part in July's Copa America, eight will feature Premier League players. Read on to find out the ones from your club that you'll be praying don't wow rival scouts or get injured!...

Betting.Betfair has signed up the BBC's South American football correspondent Tim Vickery to lead our Copa America coverage....

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Copa America Betting: Man City star seizes Argentina chance

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Carlos Tevez indicated against Albania that he can function alongside Lionel Messi in a 4-3-3

"The Manchester City captain wasn’t even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection, only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista."

A few weeks ago, Carlos Tevez didn't even look likely to make Argentina's Copa America squad, but the latest signs are that he could yet play a significant role.

Carlos Tevez went a long way to ending the debate over whether he will be one of the three Argentina players to miss out on a place in their final 23-man Copa America squad this weekend by taking his opportunity to impress as a substitute in Monday's 4-0 friendly stroll against Albania.

The Manchester City captain wasn't even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista, who remains unconvinced that the Argentine hero is suited to a role in the 4-3-3 formation that he is honing ahead of the tournament.

Batista has made drastic changes to the side he inherited from Diego Maradona after last summer's World Cup and is attempting to borrow a ploy from Barcelona boss Pep Guardiola by using Lionel Messi as the centre forward, the result of which is that there is no obvious slot in the team for Tevez.

The new system has proven effective in getting the best out of Messi, who has previously been accused back home of failing to replicate his Barcelona form when wearing the national team shirt, and he was the star performer as Albania were dismantled, however Tevez showed his worth too.

The former Boca Juniors striker came on at half time and impressed as part of a front three that still included Messi, scoring his first Argentina goal in nine months at the death after good work from fellow substitute Sergio Aguero.

Wide man Ezequiel Lavezzi grabbed his first goal for his country too to illustrate that in attack, the Copa America hosts look capable of justifying their [2.02] favourite status. Their options are so vast that the Argentine press predict that Diego Milito will be the one to make way when the squad is cut to 23, alongside defender Luciano Monzon and midfielder Diego Valeri.

It is at the back that question marks persist though as Batista bids to arrest his nation's 18-year wait for silverware, with the centre-back pairing of Nicolas Burdisso and Gabriel Milito untested against Albania but yet to prove that they are dependable.

Betting.Betfair has signed up the BBC's South American football correspondent Tim Vickery to lead our Copa America coverage....

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Copa America: Tim Vickery signs for Betfair

Copa America / Dan Thomas / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lionel Messi's Argentina are favourites for the Copa America

"Tim will be reporting from the ground out in Argentina on all the latest results, performances, gossip and analysis in a daily diary."

Betting.Betfair has signed up the BBC's South American football correspondent Tim Vickery to lead our Copa America coverage.

Tim will be reporting from the ground out in Argentina on all the latest results, performances, gossip and analysis in a daily diary which will be published the morning after the previous day's action.

Betting.Betfair will also preview every Copa America match and have pre-match analysis of the winner and top goalscorer market as well as look at some of the top stars you can look forward to seeing in action in South American football's blue-riband event, which kicks off on July 2.

Leo Thompson, sports marketing manager at Betfair, said: "Signing up Tim - acknowledged as the leading authority on South American football in UK media - continues our strategy of providing best-in-class opinion and insight to help our customers make better informed betting decisions."

Argentina at 2.04 and Brazil at 3.3 lead the market on Betfair to win the competition.

You won't miss a minute of the action as every Copa America match is available via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.

A few weeks ago, Carlos Tevez didn't even look likely to make Argentina's Copa America squad, but the latest signs are that he could yet play a significant role....

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Online Poker Tournaments Continue without America

Online poker rooms that had their domain names seized by the US continued to run tournaments over the weekend. On last Friday the US Department of Justice shut down PokerStars, UB.com, Absolute Poker and Full Tilt Poker, but still held online tournaments. While US poker players could not play at many of the rooms, there were still enough players that the poker rooms would not have to pay overlays. An overlay is when a poker room guarantees a certain amount in a tourney prize pool but does not generate enough from the players to cover it, and thus has to pay it themselves.

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