Weekend Injuries: Everton left vulnerable without Jags

"Moyes' side haven't kept a clean sheet for eight matches and their quest for another against Wigan will suffer in the England man's absence."
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.8810/11  

Phil Jagielka, Lee Cattermole and Aaron Lennon will all be big misses for their clubs if ruled out this weekend...

Phil Jagielka - Everton v Wigan (Saturday, 12:45, ITV)
David Moyes was left spitting feathers after Adam Le Fondre's overzealous challenge ended the centre back's involvement in their win over Reading after just five minutes. Jagielka was stretchered off and has had to undergo surgery to stitch up a nasty gash to his ankle. This was part of a double defensive blow for the Everton manager who lost goalkeeper Tim Howard after another collision during the Oldham game. Jagielka has been a rock for the Toffees this season, missing just one game for the Merseysiders, which they lost to Leeds in the League Cup. Moyes' side haven't kept a clean sheet for eight matches and their quest for another against Wigan will suffer in the England man's absence.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.8810/11

Lee Cattermole - QPR v Sunderland (Saturday, 15:00)
Sunderland's combative midfielder has endured a season blighted by injury, limiting him to just 14 Black Cat appearances to date. Cattermole is currently on the sidelines due to an ongoing knee problem which he aggravated against Arsenal on February 9. While the midfielder has his critics, mainly due to his disciplinary problems, Martin O'Neill's side have been seriously lacking someone with his drive and determination as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. Sunderland are in dire form ahead of their trip to Loftus Road, losing three of their last four, and Cattermole is just the sort of character they need against a QPR side fighting for their lives.
Recommended Bet: Back QPR to win @ 2.35/4

Aaron Lennon - Liverpool v Tottenham (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 1)
While Gareth Bale continues to hog the limelight for his virtuoso displays, Lennon's own sublime form has been a little overshadowed. After a standout scoring performance against Arsenal last Sunday, Spurs' diminutive number seven was instrumental yet again in his side's emphatic 3-0 thumping of Inter on Thursday night before getting subbed off late on clutching a hamstring. He's now a real doubt to be available for their trip to Anfield on Sunday. This is a blow for Andre Villas-Boas, but one player who should benefit is Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelander is in the middle of a promising return to form, scoring twice in his last three games, and should be guaranteed another start against Liverpool.
Recommended Bet: Back Gylfi Sigurdsson to score @ 5.39/2

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Cheltenham Gold Cup: They think it's all over without Kauto

Jamie Lynch / Jamie Lynch / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Sam Waley-Cohen and Long Run

"Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field..."

If the worst comes to the worst and Kauto Star is forced to miss the Gold Cup, then it's a simple task for Long Run and Sam Waley-Cohen. Or is it? Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gets on his bike to find out...

Chris Hoy does about ten seconds of full-on pedalling in the Sprint, and not only does he get a medal for that, he gets a knighthood too. And a load of money from Kelloggs.

Of course, there's far more to the Sprint than the actual sprint as - and you'll know exactly what bit I mean here - there are those opening few laps where the two cyclists play the ultimate game of cat and mouse and go about as fast as a fat Dalek. It's captivating stuff, and the one held up - the hunter - always always seems to win.

I've looked it up, and apparently there are all sorts of scientific and physiological reasons why the chaser is favoured, from energy distribution to the aerodynamic drag, but nowhere does it mention the human psyche and its effect; the positive mentality of being the hunter rather than the hunted.

When Hoy hits the velodrome, he knows he's got one man to beat, he knows exactly the time in which he's got to do it, he knows exactly the point at which he's got to push it, and therefore he can focus all his resources on one job against one rival with one aim. Hoy is brilliant in its execution, but it's a simple equation nonetheless.

It's a simple equation for Long Run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star in it. Long Run has got one horse to beat, to hunt down, and making it a one-on-one pursuit, like the cycling Sprint, means a specific plan of action can be drawn up, including contingencies. Yes, Long Run has failed twice in his role as the hunter this season, unable to catch Kauto Star, but plenty will have been taken from Haydock and Kempton - 'I learned much more from defeat than I ever learned from winning' - and, above that, Long Run will be doing the hunting on his territory this time, with the stiffer track and two extra furlongs.

If Kauto Star doesn't make it, Long Run will be unawares, but Sam Waley-Cohen will know the state of play, and won't he just. In sport, there's a very different psychology involved in being the hunted. Just ask Andrew Strauss.

After England beat India 4-0 last summer, in the process becoming number one in the world Test rankings, Strauss said: 'The next 12 months will be the biggest test we've had yet; it's a different mindset being the hunters rather than the hunted.' What happened in the next series? England got beaten up 3-0 by Pakistan. And what happened in the subsequent one-day series against the same team, when England reverted to underdogs and reverted to hunting? England savaged them 4-0.

Long Run's price has inevitably contracted, and it will do so more if Kauto is ruled out, reflecting the far easier task for the horse, but the question I'm tentatively asking is would the shortened price take full account of the different task for the jockey? And - this is where we have to be brutally honest - it's not a seasoned jockey that we're talking about. Sam Waley-Cohen knows the horse inside out, the pair have already won a Gold Cup, and the jockey also finished second in the Grand National last year, which might seem like question answered, but the difference between those races and a Kauto-less Gold Cup is pressure; the pressure brought about by being the hunted.

Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field...and they weren't altogether convincing. The fact that they pretty much scrambled home there, whatever the reason, is something else that might just prey on Waley-Cohen's mind, and the weight of expectation in the Gold Cup will be on a different scale to what it was at Newbury if Long Run finds himself at Cheltenham without Kauto to share the attention.

Long Run and Waley-Cohen always has been and always will be a partnership in which the jockey is scrutinised almost as much as the horse, because of his amateur status, and that would be intensified in a Gold Cup which looked at his mercy. The pressure, the expectation and the onus would all be on Waley-Cohen, and that itself complicates the issue.

In some ways, Long Run is comparable to Chris Hoy's bike, in that neither will be aware of the pressures and expectations, whoever is in opposition. In both cases that is a problem for the riders and the riders alone.

Kauto Star missing the Gold Cup would undoubtedly increase Long Run's chances of winning it, but, tangentially, it might just ask different questions of his rider, requiring a lot more tactical thought than a one-on-one scenario.

What I've written is maybe just something to think about. Sam Waley-Cohen will do well not to think about it.

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Premier League Relegation Odds: Bolton in freefall without Holden

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Holden role. Stuart Holden excels playing just in front of the back four.

"It may be that Coyle was lucky to find Holden when he arrived at Bolton – and has now been unlucky to lose him. With no solution in sight, however, Bolton look a team to keep opposing on the road and their relegation odds may well shrink further."

He's not one of the more glamorous names of the Premier League but Bolton's American star Stuart Holden is absolutely key to Owen Coyle's side and their chances of avoiding the drop. Just look at the stats, says Andrew Atherley.

Bolton looked in rude health when they won 4-0 at QPR on the opening day of the season but they have been haemorrhaging badly since then and the pain may well continue when they visit Wigan on Saturday.

Before the QPR game punters were warned in this column that Bolton had become a risky proposition on the road in the absence of key midfielder Stuart Holden, who broke his leg against Manchester United in March. The advice may have seemed poor after the 4-0 win, but subsequent events have emphasised the vulnerability of a Holden-less Bolton.

With the USA international now facing another six months on the sidelines after a brief comeback in the Carling Cup last month, Bolton look set to stay in deep trouble.
In 26 games last season with Holden holding the midfield, only the big six could defeat Bolton on a regular basis. But they lost six of their last eight league games after he broke his leg, including four out of four away, mostly against struggling sides, and the win over QPR provided only temporary respite.

Owen Coyle's team have lost all six league matches since then, including both away trips, and it is no coincidence that Holden did not feature in any of those games.
Nor is it a great surprise that Bolton won 2-0 (note that clean sheet) when Holden returned to the side in the Carling Cup tie at Aston Villa on September 19.

In Holden's absence from Premier League away matches since the start of last season, Bolton's record now reads: won one, lost six. As well as the only win, the QPR match also brought the sole clean sheet Bolton have kept on the road since Holden was injured.

Some might excuse Bolton's poor start to the season on account of a tough fixture list (they have played both Manchester clubs, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal in their opening seven games) but a comparison of their record with and without the US international against non-big-six sides is instructive.

Since the start of last season they have won nine out of 18 and lost only two when he has been in the starting line-up for matches in that category, with an average of 1.89 points per game (marking them out as a top-eight side).

But when he has been absent their record is much worse, with two wins and six defeats out of 10 at an average of 0.8 points per game. In other words, they play like a relegation side without him and it's little surprise they are now bottom of the table. Apart from the QPR win, their only other victory without Holden in that category was in April at home to West Ham, last season's bottom club. At [3.95] they are worth backing to be relegated.

There may be another factor at work too - it is arguable that Coyle is not a good manager on the road. In 10 Premier League away games with Burnley, Coyle managed only one point and his success there - in cup and league - was founded on good form at Turf Moor.

It may be that Coyle was lucky to find Holden when he arrived at Bolton - and has now been unlucky to lose him. With no solution in sight, however, Bolton look a team to keep opposing on the road and their relegation odds may well shrink further.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Everton

Six of the last seven meetings in league and cup at Stamford Bridge have been drawn (four 1-1).

West Brom v Wolves

Ten of the 13 derbies at the Hawthorns in the past 20 years have had under 2.5 goals. Wolves have won only one of those matches, with West Brom winning seven.

Recommendations

Wigan to beat Bolton at [2.38]
Bolton to be relegated at [3.95]
West Brom v Wolves under 2.5 goals at [1.92]

Dan Fitch takes a look at the some of the greatest matches between English football's most successful two clubs, Liverpool and Manchester United....

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Premier League Results: United struggle while City thrive without Tevez

Premier League / Maxliu / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Manchester's Reds leave it late before securing home while City show they don't need Carlos with thumping win. Meanwhile, Kenny is king on Merseyside...

Manchester United may have only drifted to [1.74] but their fans experienced an anxious wait before Anderson's () minute goal set them on their way to a 2-0 win.

Two minutes before the Brazilian's goal, Norwich should have gone ahead when Anthony Pilkington broke through on goal. However, the winger shot wide and, as is often the way at Old Trafford, his team were punished shortly afterwards. The impressive Danny Wellbeck scored United's second shortly before full-time.

Unite's title rivals and neighbours Manchester City were far more emphatic as they thumped Blackburn 4-0 at Ewood Park. Supporters held up a banner which read Tevez Out and on this showing the Eastland's club don't need the Argentine. Adam Johnson, Mario Balotelli, Samir Nasri and Stefan Savic were all on target as City poured on the pain for beleagured Rovers. City are 3.7 to win the Premier League while Blackburn are [2.16] for the drop.

Liverpool traded at 2.9 as they came out on top in a lively Merseyside Derby. Playing with ten men following the dismissal of Jack Rodwell, Everton held the Reds at bay until the 71st minute. Dirk Kuyt had a penalty saved by Tim Howard so it was up to Andy Carroll and then Luis Suarez to win the match for Kenny Dalglish's team.

They were up to fourth in the table before Newcastle beat Wolves 2-1 at Molineux. Alan Pardew's team continued their sensational run and are now third, following today's win, for which they were backed at [3.45].

One of the season's other quiet successes so far are Aston Villa and their form continued today with a 2-0 win over Wigan. Gabriel Agbonlahor and Darren Bent scored either side of half-time to ensure that Alex McLeish's men remain unbeaten.

At the Stadium of Light, Sunderland and West Brom played out a lively 2-2 draw which was matched at [7.0] and rewarded those who grabbed the four goal stalemate at [18.5] in the correct score market.

Lee Dixon thinks history suggests a currently out-of-form Arsenal can still salvage something from a match where a goal glut will once again be on the cards....

Third visits last in Sunday's first match of the day and all the stats in the world point towards a comfortable Chelsea win. We simply can't ignore them, says Lee Dixon....

Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox....

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Online Poker Tournaments Continue without America

Online poker rooms that had their domain names seized by the US continued to run tournaments over the weekend. On last Friday the US Department of Justice shut down PokerStars, UB.com, Absolute Poker and Full Tilt Poker, but still held online tournaments. While US poker players could not play at many of the rooms, there were still enough players that the poker rooms would not have to pay overlays. An overlay is when a poker room guarantees a certain amount in a tourney prize pool but does not generate enough from the players to cover it, and thus has to pay it themselves.

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