Premier League
/ Lee Dixon / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment
Nicolas Anelka has a fine goalscoring record against Bolton
"Third plays bottom and worst still for the home fans, Opta tell us that Bolton have lost the last eight Premier League games in a row at the Reebok versus Chelsea, the longest losing run of any team at home to a single opponent."
Third visits last in Sunday's first match of the day and all the stats in the world point towards a comfortable Chelsea win. We simply can't ignore them, says Lee Dixon.
Bolton v Chelsea, KO 13:30 BST, Sky Sports 1
Bolton [7.0] Chelsea [1.57] The Draw [4.4]
Bolton are in the middle of a huge slump. But you didn't need me to tell you that, did you? The league table tells you all you need to know with the Trotters rock bottom on just three points from six matches. What's gone wrong? It's hard to say because their squad doesn't look markedly weaker than it has been in recent years. While Daniel Sturridge and Johan Elmander have departed, Owen Coyle has managed to secure the likes of Gael Kakuta and David N'Gog. But the team just hasn't performed.
Chelsea, on the other hand, are showing signs of clicking into gear. Ramires is looking very lively and there's a huge amount to like about Juan Mata. He's one of those players who may not do anything exceptionally well but he does a lot of things very well and is making things happen upfront for Chelsea. We sometimes see these creative foreign players take time to settle in the Premier League but the Spaniard has done so very quickly. Chelsea will however have to make do without his compatriot Fernando Torres, who got sent off just as he was starting to show some form.
Match Odds
When faced with a heavy favourite I always try to make a case for the underdog being able to salvage something from the match before assessing whether there's enough there to actually go ahead and oppose them in the betting. On this occasion I've come up with virtually no case at all.
Third plays bottom and worst still for the home fans, Opta tell us that Bolton have lost the last eight Premier League games in a row at the Reebok versus Chelsea, the longest losing run of any team at home to a single opponent. It's also interesting to note that in Chelsea's last six matches against Bolton (both home and away) they've won all six and not conceded in the last four. That's a very telling stat and means that backing Chelsea to win to nil at 2.6 represents far better value than the straightforward win at [1.58].
Correct Score
I suspect that, if Chelsea score early, the floodgates could open here. Competition for places in the forward positions is pretty intense in Andre Villas-Boas' team at the moment and the likes of Mata, Frank Lampard, Didier Drogba, Florent Malouda, Sturridge and Nicolas Anelka will all be desperate to get on the scoresheet to try and cement their places in the team. No going 1-0 up and shutting up shop then.
3-0 is my idea of a scoreline but I'm not going to put all my eggs in one basket given my first bet of Chelsea winning to nil, so 3-1 is included as a saver.
To Score
Anelka will face one of his (many) former clubs and will be using these three matches which Torres is suspended for to try and remind the manager that while the Spaniard may be the club's pin-up boy now Anelka been at the football club for some time and has always performed when called upon. He has a fine record against Bolton too with Opta telling us that he's scored five in his last eight matches against Sunday's opponents and is a confident selection in this market.
Recommended Bets
2 pts Back Chelsea to win to nil @ [2.6]
1 pt each Back 3-0 and 3-1 to Chelsea in correct score market @ [15.0] and [14.0]
2 pts Back Nicolas Anelka to score at anytime @ [2.8]
Michael Cox's View
Andre Villas-Boas has done a good so far at Chelsea, picking up some decent results whilst overhauling the squad. Even his one defeat so far, away at Manchester United, was slightly harsh on the side's performance.
The one area of concern has been at the back, where Chelsea have leaked goals in the Premier League. Their only clean sheet so far has been away at Stoke on the opening day - in their five subsequent league games, they've conceded.
I think the problem is very specific though, rather than pointing to a lack of defensive organisation. Villas-Boas wants his side to press, which means a high defensive line and space in behind. John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic aren't great at turning and sprinting to collect a pass played behind them, and in certain matches they've clearly struggled playing so high up the pitch.
Will Bolton be able to expolit this weakness? It largely depends on who they play upfront. David Ngog started ahead of Kevin Davies at Arsenal last weekend but didn't last til half-time - he went off injured and was replaced by Davies. I think Owen Coyle might call upon Davies to lead the line - he offers a physical and aerial threat, but little pace in behind.
It's significant that Chelsea's only clean sheet so far this season was against the side who are notoriously focused upon playing long balls (Stoke) - Terry and Ivanovic will be up for a physical test. If I was Owen Coyle I'd want Ngog's pace, and if he plumps for Davies instead, I think Chelsea will be OK at the back. Davies is favourite to get the nod as we've seen and for us that means backing Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at [2.6].
Recommended bet:
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet at [2.6]
To view more Opta stats for this match click here
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