Grand National: Henderson hoping it's Boom time

News / Timeform / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nicky Henderson is hoping to break his National duck this year.

"I think 10st 12lb is an area horses can win from and he's in good form. It's nice he's been there once before..."

Nicky Henderson is looking forward to Shakalakaboomboom flying the flag for his Seven Barrows base in the Grand National at Aintree on Saturday week...

The Lambourn trainer has been trying to win the world's greatest steeplechase for more than 30 years, without success.

However, in Shakalakaboomboom he has a horse that jumped the National fences when seventh in the Topham Chase last season, and this term his preparation has gone perfectly well so far.

"He's our intended runner and is all ready to go," Henderson told At The Races.

"After the Topham, in which he jumped beautifully, it was just that two-miles-six was a bit short for him.

"He went on to Punchestown where he won the Pat Taaffe Chase, then he came out at Cheltenham over three miles and a bit first time out this season and his stamina helped him a lot. He was second in the Great Yorkshire (at Doncaster).

"It's been a nice preparation, it's always been the plan and consequently he didn't go to Cheltenham.

"I think 10st 12lb is an area horses can win from and he's in good form. It's nice he's been there once before."

Henderson also has Burton Port in the National but the Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth is more likely to run in the Bowl at the big meeting on Merseyside instead.

"We've discussed it with Trevor (Hemmings, owner) and we are still undecided as he also has Ballabriggs in the National so it's more likely that Burton Port will run in the Bowl rather than the National," Henderson went on.

"He ran a very good race in the Gold Cup. We have National fences here and he has jumped them well but he's not a big fella and he would have a great chance in the Bowl.

"Trevor already has Ballabriggs in the National so it seems sensible to play it that way.

He's still in the National and he's there as a reserve if, God forbid, something went wrong with Ballabriggs. We could bring Burton Port into it, or think about it anyway."

Shakalakaboomboom is currently available at [29.0] for the Grand National, with the David Pipe-trained Junior heading the market at [13.0].

A crackerjack line up of youngsters will take their place in the $3.5 million Group 1 Golden Slipper Stakes (off 07:05 BST) at Rosehill on Saturday in a contest befitting the richest two-year-old race in the world writes Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe......

The Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte on Thursday features a couple of live outsiders for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 6.......

Former champion jockey and new Betfair columnist, Ryan Moore, will partner the Richard Hannon-trained Rockinante in Thursday's Group 3 Prix Jebel at Maisons-Laffitte......

Top French jockey Gerald Mosse couldn't hide his enthusiasm for the chances of Americain in Saturday's BMW Stakes (off 05:25 BST) at Rosehill after riding the seven-year-old entire in a special gallop at the track on Tuesday....

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Jamie Lynch: Why risk Dubai when you can pray it's safe at Lingfield?

Timeform Debate / Jamie Lynch / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The scenes at last year's Festival

"It's a far cry from Britain where, this week, Gloucestershire Police hailed the Cheltenham Festival as a success after there were 'only' 24 arrests on the racecourse."

It's a big day for Lingfield and a big week for Timeform's Dubai expert, as explained by a green-eyed Jamie Lynch....

My friend and colleague Stephen Molyneux (Mollo) is flying off to Dubai next week to cover the World Cup meeting for Timeform. How he managed to clear the fit and proper person checks is a mystery of similar proportions to The Giant Bolster leading at the last in a Gold Cup, though my pointed jealousy is soothed by the knowledge that it will be all work and little or no play, not so much because that's the sort of guy Mollo is, but more because that's the sort of businesslike place Dubai is.

You'll be able to read here on betting.betfair, or maybe hear on Timeform radio, or maybe see on CNN, all of Mollo's views and a percentage of his adventures during the week, and it will all go like clockwork, free of incident and transgression, as we've thoroughly researched the procedures and protocols: the dos and don'ts of Dubai. Basically, Mollo will be fine and able to report for duty so long as he doesn't walk the streets bare-chested, indulge in a public display of affection, secretly photograph the locals, cross dress, get drunk in a public place, or make an obscene gesture.

Simple. Simple and admirable. It's a far cry from Britain where, I'm sad to say, I've been in bars where prizes are handed out for all of the above. It's a far cry from Britain where, this week, Gloucestershire Police hailed the Cheltenham Festival as a success after there were 'only' 24 arrests on the racecourse. It's a far cry from Britain where, even in stockbroker belt Surrey, a special committee was set up last month because anti-social behaviour had got so bad in Lingfield. In Lingfield!

What was once leafy Lingfield has now become lawless Lingfield. The East Grinstead Courier reported that - and this is absolutely true, word for word - 'a Scout hut has been daubed with graffiti and youngsters have been drinking in Jenner's Field.' Never fear, though, as Lingfield has its own Robocop in the shape of task-force leader PC Barry Reece. Outlining his objectives, Barry said - and again this is absolutely true, word for word - 'we have a list of people who could be responsible for these crimes; if we catch whoever is causing the problems, we have a lot of options, including delivering letters to their parents by hand.'

Does Martin Scorsese know about this ganglands story?

Forget Dubai, the dos and don'ts of going to Lingfield on Saturday are all the more consequential: do take a flak jacket and don't take the Vicarage Road route past Jenner's Field. But if you can get past the tipsy teenagers and Kate Adie then you're in for a treat, because it's a brilliant card, featuring some proper horses and top riders, on a day that's becoming a seminal point in the racing calendar: goodbye jumps and tweed, hello linen and speed.

For so long the Paul Ross to turf racing's Jonathan Ross, the all-weather now has a big day all to itself, and this year's is bigger and better than ever. Adam Brookes has already done us an in-depth preview to the main event, the Winter Derby, but the undercard of two listed races are just as high on quality and competition.

When he's not analysing the Dubai form or hastily unpacking his speedos, camera, miniskirt and chest wig, Stephen Molyneux is one of our principal handicappers, specialising in sprinters, and he has promised me that Medicean Man will run a huge race in the Hever Sprint Stakes at 14:55. It's easy to see the positives.

Medicean Man has done some of his best work when fresh and on polytrack, admittedly tried only at Wolverhampton so far, but Lingfield should suit him equally well and, moreover, this specific race is likely to play out ideally for his latecoming style. A field including Bajan Tryst, Even Stevens, Fratellino and Noble Storm means they're bound to go quick, and the faster the pace the better for Medicean Man, who has generally improved right through his career. Oasis Dancer is the danger and probable favourite, but he has a penalty for winning a lesser listed event last month, and this will be his first ever go at five furlongs.

Given the crime-culture story currently surrounding Lingfield, Scarface would be an appropriate runner on the day. While we don't have a Scarface, we do have a Gatepost, who carries a hefty scar on his off-hind following an altercation with the very thing after which he's named. He lost his way later last season but started it with a bang, winning his first two starts prior to shaping second-best behind Power in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. That form puts him in with a big chance in the Spring Cup at 14:25, and I'm hoping that the winter absence will have reinvigorated him - the fact Gatepost is still in the 2000 Guineas suggests that Mick Channon (who's already had eight winners this year) retains plenty of faith in him.

If Medicean Man and Gatepost both win, I can celebrate by swigging champagne in the streets half-naked while attempting to cop off with various women as they hurry by, all completely legal and above board. Think about that, Mollo, as you take off in first class on Tuesday morning.

..............
Racehorses of 2011 is out now and contains essays on the top performers, over 300 photos, Timeform Top 100s and much more. Click HERE to secure your copy.

With just a week until the British Flat Turf season gets underway, Timeform look ahead to a weekend of racing that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby on the all-weather......

The news, released on Wednesday March 21, that the majority of racing in the 2012 QIPCO British Champion Series is to be covered by sectional timing deserves to be well received by anyone who wishes to see British racing playing a prominent role on the world stage......

It is said that there are few certainties in life other than death and taxes. After a hectic Cheltenham Festival, jumps handicapper Phil Turner can add a few more to that list- whichever lane you change into during a motorway traffic jam immediately becomes the slowest, there are far more lows than highs when you're a lifelong Evertonian and, of course, Big Buck's will continue to remain unbeaten over hurdles.........

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Cheltenham Gold Cup: They think it's all over without Kauto

Jamie Lynch / Jamie Lynch / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

A relaxed Sam Waley-Cohen and Long Run

"Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field..."

If the worst comes to the worst and Kauto Star is forced to miss the Gold Cup, then it's a simple task for Long Run and Sam Waley-Cohen. Or is it? Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gets on his bike to find out...

Chris Hoy does about ten seconds of full-on pedalling in the Sprint, and not only does he get a medal for that, he gets a knighthood too. And a load of money from Kelloggs.

Of course, there's far more to the Sprint than the actual sprint as - and you'll know exactly what bit I mean here - there are those opening few laps where the two cyclists play the ultimate game of cat and mouse and go about as fast as a fat Dalek. It's captivating stuff, and the one held up - the hunter - always always seems to win.

I've looked it up, and apparently there are all sorts of scientific and physiological reasons why the chaser is favoured, from energy distribution to the aerodynamic drag, but nowhere does it mention the human psyche and its effect; the positive mentality of being the hunter rather than the hunted.

When Hoy hits the velodrome, he knows he's got one man to beat, he knows exactly the time in which he's got to do it, he knows exactly the point at which he's got to push it, and therefore he can focus all his resources on one job against one rival with one aim. Hoy is brilliant in its execution, but it's a simple equation nonetheless.

It's a simple equation for Long Run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star in it. Long Run has got one horse to beat, to hunt down, and making it a one-on-one pursuit, like the cycling Sprint, means a specific plan of action can be drawn up, including contingencies. Yes, Long Run has failed twice in his role as the hunter this season, unable to catch Kauto Star, but plenty will have been taken from Haydock and Kempton - 'I learned much more from defeat than I ever learned from winning' - and, above that, Long Run will be doing the hunting on his territory this time, with the stiffer track and two extra furlongs.

If Kauto Star doesn't make it, Long Run will be unawares, but Sam Waley-Cohen will know the state of play, and won't he just. In sport, there's a very different psychology involved in being the hunted. Just ask Andrew Strauss.

After England beat India 4-0 last summer, in the process becoming number one in the world Test rankings, Strauss said: 'The next 12 months will be the biggest test we've had yet; it's a different mindset being the hunters rather than the hunted.' What happened in the next series? England got beaten up 3-0 by Pakistan. And what happened in the subsequent one-day series against the same team, when England reverted to underdogs and reverted to hunting? England savaged them 4-0.

Long Run's price has inevitably contracted, and it will do so more if Kauto is ruled out, reflecting the far easier task for the horse, but the question I'm tentatively asking is would the shortened price take full account of the different task for the jockey? And - this is where we have to be brutally honest - it's not a seasoned jockey that we're talking about. Sam Waley-Cohen knows the horse inside out, the pair have already won a Gold Cup, and the jockey also finished second in the Grand National last year, which might seem like question answered, but the difference between those races and a Kauto-less Gold Cup is pressure; the pressure brought about by being the hunted.

Waley-Cohen has ridden in 17 races this season, winning one of them, that at Newbury last month when he and Long Run, 4/7 with no Kauto to contend with, played the role of the hunted in a small field...and they weren't altogether convincing. The fact that they pretty much scrambled home there, whatever the reason, is something else that might just prey on Waley-Cohen's mind, and the weight of expectation in the Gold Cup will be on a different scale to what it was at Newbury if Long Run finds himself at Cheltenham without Kauto to share the attention.

Long Run and Waley-Cohen always has been and always will be a partnership in which the jockey is scrutinised almost as much as the horse, because of his amateur status, and that would be intensified in a Gold Cup which looked at his mercy. The pressure, the expectation and the onus would all be on Waley-Cohen, and that itself complicates the issue.

In some ways, Long Run is comparable to Chris Hoy's bike, in that neither will be aware of the pressures and expectations, whoever is in opposition. In both cases that is a problem for the riders and the riders alone.

Kauto Star missing the Gold Cup would undoubtedly increase Long Run's chances of winning it, but, tangentially, it might just ask different questions of his rider, requiring a lot more tactical thought than a one-on-one scenario.

What I've written is maybe just something to think about. Sam Waley-Cohen will do well not to think about it.

Is Paul Nicholls out of form, or is it just a trick of the mind? With the help of Derren Brown amongst others, Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch takes a closer look......

Based on the theory that participation is better than preaching, Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch invites you to take his Grand National Quiz on his way to trying to answer the key question......

Will Newbury go ahead? Nobody knows yet, but if you don't know don't fake it says Timeform's Jamie Lynch, who is hoping it gets the green light so he can put his plays and lays into action....

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Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Looking for a place lay? It's Sorted

Tipping / Timeform / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Today's Irish racing comes from Thurles

"Sorted rather reverted to type when putting up a lacklustre effort at Naas last time and the handicapper appears to caught up with him"

A trappy betting card at Thurles this afternoon, but Timeform's Irish team have managed to come up with two win bets and a place lay in the hope of keeping this column's readers in profit.

For all she disappointed at the track last month, it's hard to imagine Dare To Doubt not being good enough to see off her most obvious danger in Mayo Mystique, and few of the others, in the mares maiden chase at 14:25. The drop back in trip looks sure to suit Dare To Doubt given that she travelled strongly for a long way in a stronger race last time, and her form over timber was vastly superior to any of today's opposition.

The Grade 2 novice hurdle looks an above-average renewal and, although he has to give weight to all of his rivals, the vote goes to the improving Folsom Blue (15:55), who has done little wrong over hurdles to date. It's a relection of the strength in depth the Gigginstown Stud organisation hold in the novice hurdling division that Folsom Blue looks set to swerve Cheltenham in favour of today's contest, and Conor O'Dwyer's up-and-coming stayer looks more progressive than the consistent Lyreen Legend.

Sorted (16:55) can't be trusted implicitly (twice refused to race) and, though he scored at Punchestown in December and was a creditable second at Down Royal next time, he rather reverted to type when putting up a lacklustre effort at Naas last time and the handicapper appears to caught up with him. Owenacurran Milan, Oscar Hill and Beckwith Star all boast solid each-way credentials, so it looks worth opposing Sorted in the place market.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Dare To Doubt in the 14:25
Back Folsom Blue in the 15.55
Place lay Sorted in the 16.55

David Cleary is focusing on a pair of Donald McCain's horses at Ludlow where the in-form trainer holds three entries...

The Dubai World Cup Carnival continues at Meydan, which means another three SmartPlays from Timeform's Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux......

Can Nick's selection beat the Reste of the field at Ludlow today?...

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Sky Dogs Tips: Bert best in Juvenile and it's Mel for the Bok

Sky Previews / Darrell Williams / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will we see Wimbledon winners?

"With the benefit of having already won a competition this year, Coolavanny Bert, who still appears open to further improvement looks the one to beat, judged on his recent trials"

Sky Sports' live televised Wimbledon card tonight is oozing with treats but don't miss Coolavanny Bert in the Racing Post Juvenile, part of a double header with the Springbok, where Westmead Melanie is set to take all the beating, says Darrell Williams.

21:45 Juvenile

T1 Mill Maximus
Northern Puppy Derby winner in October but unraced since and recent trials plus a moderate record after a break suggest he has a bit to find in such exalted company

T2 Coolavanny Bert
Rapidly improving youngster (the only pup in the field) who completely dominated the Henlow Derby (won the final by five lengths). Could have a fitness edge, further backed up by two smart trials.

T3 Eden Star
Winner of three major prizes last season including the Puppy Derby over CD and a winner of 10/13 starts. Unraced since winning the Laurels in November, but has an excellent record fresh

T4 Farloe Iceman
Trial spin last week offers some encouragement but has won only one of his last five races and has hardly been dealt the draw he would have liked

T5 Silverview Perky
Hugely impressive Oaks winner (and was only four spots off the clock in an earlier round). Hasn't run since (December), but has a good record first time back and drawn to make a major impact

T6 Go Go Sonic
Another with a layoff to overcome (unraced since December) and previous record suggests he will improve for the effort.

Verdict
With every single runner a Category One winner, this could hardly be a stronger renewal. However with the benefit of having already won a competition this year, Coolavanny Bert, who still appears open to further improvement looks the one to beat, judged on his recent trials. Eden Star, who has an excellent record fresh, is an obvious danger, but value seekers are directed towards Silverview Perky, who appears well drawn, and could hardly have been more impressive during the Oaks.

19:40 Standard Div 2
All eyes will be on Irish Derby finalist Razldazl Bugatti, but he's unraced since that final last September and the value may lie in veteran Yahoo Jamie who appears ideally berthed in trap one.

20:00 Sprint
Lil Risky is unbeaten in two sprints here and bounced back to form at Doncaster on Friday, but Razldazl Rioga, while not a sprinter by trade, could hardly have been better prepared for his return and can make all.

20:15 Ladies
Bansha Mo, beaten only once in six starts, is a rare runner here for Harry Crapper and the hint should be taken after a rapid trial last week. In form Ministry Millie is untried here.

20:35 Springbok
Westmead Melanie will take all the beating in her bid for a rare victory for the fairer sex in the novice hurdlers crown. Set to lead up the inside runners, last year's Oaks semi-finalist proved her mettle with an impressive strong running success in the heats to take her tally to four out of four over timber (all over the CD). Royal Premium showed marked improvement when getting beaten only a head by the selection in the semi-final, and with his proven stamina (he was a regular over six bends on the flat), he looks the logical forecast link.

20:50 Marathon
Lottes Girl is unbeaten in two starts over the CD, and last year's Dorando marathon winner can take advantage of a fitness edge to beat reigning Marathon champion Capoley Ash, who is unraced this year. Powerfast Pigeon, ran well here in December, and rates the chief threat.

21:10 Stayers
Undoubtedly the best six bend race of the year. In-form Express Trend was an Oaks semi-finalist last year, while dual big race winner Lonely Boy won here in the Betfair Trainers Championship last year. But for value try Skywalkershearer, who saves his best for Wimbledon and is five from six over CD.

21:25 Standard Div 1
Razldazl Jayfkay can start his second campaign for a Derby win by beating old rival Boher Paddy. Dolores Ruth's charge was all the rage for last year's 'big one' before exiting in the Quarter-final but looks spot on judged by his trials and is far better drawn than his rival.

Recommended Bets
Razldazl Jayfkay 21:25
Bansha Mo 20:15
Westmead Melanie 20:35
Coolvanny Bert 21:45
Lottes Girl 20:50
Skywalkershearer 21:10

Top pup Coolavanny Bert smacks of being a 'good thing' in tonight's Henlow Puppy Derby final - live on Sky Sports - but Darrell Williams has some far better priced picks on the supporting card....

The Lord takes his turn to provide our Thursday tipping column looking at the weekly RPGTV action...

Darrell Williams takes his fortnightly spot in the tipster's chair here at BB dogs - previewing the forthcoming action on Racing Post Greyhound TV...

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Follow The Money: It's all about Southwell

Tipping / Follow The Money / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two backs and one lay and today they all come from Southwell. Over to you, Follow The Money crew.

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Southwell where an additional "Jumpers Bumper" meeting has been added after the cold snap ravaged the schedule. All races are National Hunt Flat races over two miles on the Fibresand surface.

Our first back is in the 13:45 where Ferdy Murphy's The Hollinwell is [2.72] favourite after being a high of [7.4]. He is a fairly useful chaser and has the highest rating in the field. Add to that some course and distance form, winning a similar "Jumpers Bumper" event back in 2010, the only one in the field to have run on the surface, the money suggests he was way too big early on today and must have a big chance.

Two races later and we have our bigger back. In the 14:45 Alan Swinbanks Saviero is [9.0] in from [15.0]. He has a full set of bumper, hurdles and chase victories although has been out of sorts recently. He is however one of the more talented contenders in the race and the money suggests he could be involved at a decent price.

Finally we move to the end of the card for today's lay. In the 16:25 Glen Countess has moved from [2.48] out to [3.7]. Brendan Powell's mare is a former Point to Point winner and ran with promise when beaten well by a Willie Mullins horse in a Fairyhouse Bumper last time out. However, that form hasn't held up and punters are coming in for a couple of others ahead of this one.

Recommended Bets:

Back The Hollinwell [2.72] Southwell 13:45
Back Saniero [9] Southwell 14:45
Lay Glen Countess [3.7] Southwell 16:25

That's all for today. If you're on the move this information is recorded on 0870 90 80 181.

It's all about Leopardstown for David Cleary today and though the best bet of the day lies elsewhere, there are two seriously over-priced runners in the feature race. Read on......

Will Nick's selection be the one calling the shots this afternoon or will it it be overruled?...

A cracking card at Leopardstown sees four Grade 1 races and a competitive cast of supporting races, and Timeform's Irish team have come up with two win SmartPlays and a lay.........

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Bundesliga Betting: It's over but it's not over for Dortmund

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Golden boy. Mario Gotze has been one of Dortmund's shining lights this season

"I’m dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]."

Borussia Dortmund have already been crowned champions but with the attitude they've shown and the type of football they've been playing they're unlikely to stop winning anytime soon. Take advantage, says Kevin Hatchard.

Last weekend Borussia Dortmund sealed their first Bundesliga title since 2002, and their success is richly deserved. Charismatic coach Jurgen Klopp put together a youthful squad brimming with confidence and enthusiasm, and they have played with pace and panache. By Klopp's own admission his side were too wasteful in possession last season, unable to dominate games throughout. This time around BVB have played with much more control, and Nuri Sahin has blossomed into a playmaker who can run a game from start to finish.

While young attacking talents like Shinji Kagawa and Mario Gotze have emerged and been lavishly praised, Dortmund's success has been built on a rock-solid defence. Miserly BVB have conceded just 19 goals in 32 matches - the next-best defence (Mainz) has conceded 37. This is a remarkable achievement when you consider the ages of the regular back-four - left-back Marcel Schmelzer is 23, right-back Lukasz Piszczek is 25, while centre-backs Neven Subotic and Mats Hummels are both 22.

There's no doubt Dortmund wobbled after the winter break, and a serious injury to Kagawa dented their attack. However, with the pressure of the title race now released, BVB are dangerous opponents for anyone. They've picked up a league-high 11 away wins, and I fancy them to make it 12 at Werder Bremen.

While Dortmund have vastly exceeded expectations, 13th-placed Werder have underperformed feebly. They have defended badly all season (58 goals conceded), with Mikael Silvestre and Sebastian Prodl accidents waiting to happen. At the other end of the pitch the departure of star string-puller Mesut Ozil to Real Madrid has left a gaping void - Werder have scored just 43 goals, compared to last season's tally of 71.
Werder are still not safe from the drop, with just four points between them and the bottom three. This puts extra pressure on a side that's won just five out of 16 home games.

RECOMMENDED BET: I'm dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]

Eintracht Frankfurt [2.1] vs FC Cologne [3.9], the draw [3.6]

Last week's 3-0 defeat at Mainz saw Eintracht slip to third from bottom, so securing a victory against fellow strugglers Cologne is now of paramount importance. Eintracht are yet to win in five games under new coach Christoph Daum, but they have been desperately unlucky not to pick up more points. They led 1-0 in matches against Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich, but conceded late levellers on both occasions.

Eintracht have become embroiled in the relegation scrap because at some stage over Christmas they forgot how to score goals. Since the winter break they have scored just six goals in fifteen games. Bearing that in mind it's lucky that Cologne are coming to town, because they've conceded more goals away from home than anyone else in the Bundesliga.

As we saw in last week's win over Bayer Leverkusen, Cologne can b
eat anyone in front of their own fans. The story is somewhat different on the road - the Billy Goats have lost their last three away games 4-1, 5-1 and 6-2. Cologne have the worst away record in the league, with just one win and three draws from 16 games.
RECOMMENDED BETS: Eintracht have improved since Daum took charge, and Cologne are abysmal away from home. Back Eintracht to win at [2.1]. In-play bettors should note that Eintracht haven't scored before half-time in any of their last five games, so you could wait for that [2.1] to lengthen.

Stuttgart [2.16] vs Hannover [3.7], the draw [3.65]

Hannover's shock loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach saw them drop behind Bayern in the race for Champions League qualification, and I suspect their morale has taken a huge dip. The last thing they need is a trip to in-form Stuttgart, who have surged clear of the relegation dogfight with three straight wins.

The Swabians have lost just one of their last nine games, and the timely resurgence of striker Cacau (three goals in two games) has given them a cutting edge.

RECOMMENDED BET: Hannover have surprised everyone, but the Champions League dream dies here. Back Stuttgart to win at [2.16]

It's been a pretty tough last six or seven years for Borussia Dortmund, who in different circumstances may have gone into adminstration rather than winning this year's Bundesliga. Richard Aikman explains how they did it....

Why Michael Ballack had to apologise, how Cologne are far better at home than their league position suggests and the best bets ahead of another weekend of Bundesliga action....

Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches...

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Grand National Thoughts: Oscar, Oscar - It's Time to win, over

Tipping / Kieran Packman / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tidal Bay is one to oppose for Kieran Packman

"‘Mercurial’, ‘enigmatic’, ‘a conundrum’. All of these are likely to be used this week to describe Tidal Bay. ‘A right dog’ is probably that which will resonate with most punters."

Kieran Packman gives us his unique take on the National betting

The National winner - Oscar Time. Irish National form. Reliable jumper. Jockey with good record over National fences. Favourable Timeform rating. At the 'right' end of the weights. Irish trainer I've never heard of. All positives. Stamina is his potential Achilles heel, but I'm inclined to think his fading finish last time out was attributable to fitness as this was always going to be the focus.

A Lively Long Shot - Becauseicouldntsee. Still relatively unexposed and, like many of the Irish contingent, has intentionally been lightly-raced with this race in mind this season. His second in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 proved both his stamina, his ability to show his form on good ground and showcased his potential for a race of this calibre. 25/1+ underestimates his credentials.

A Horse To Place - Don't Push It. Looked far from an obvious type for the National fences 12 months ago, then went and won anyway. I think the fairly comfortable nature of his win has been overlooked, not least by the official handicapper, and he'll be in the frame if he turns up in the same heart.

A Poor Favourite - Backstage. Gordon Elliott is a superb trainer and for that reason this horse has to be considered. But I think nearly every horse in the National would have won the point-to-point this lad did recently and yet he shortened in the market. It is highly dubious whether he'll see out this trip. Second favourite as I write despite not having shown solid form for nigh-on two years. Not for me.

A Place Lay - Tidal Bay. 'Mercurial', 'enigmatic', 'a conundrum'. All of these are likely to be used this week to describe Tidal Bay. 'A right dog' is probably that which will resonate with most punters. Clearly has the ability to play a part if he's inclined to, but far more likely to turn his nose up at the first.

Three lays today courtesy of Timeform's US Team......

There are some smart sorts on show in this mile-and-three-quarter listed event......

Timeform's Phil Thompson makes the selections for today's placepot at Exeter......

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Sky Dogs Tips: Mark My Words it's Sallis' Arc again!

Sky Previews / Darrell Williams / 29 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Sallis be on the bunny again?

"Mark My Words arguably put up the performance of the competition so far when getting up close home to win a first round heat that justifiably could have been the final"

Last year Paul Sallis' Farloe Titan led up a kennel 1-2 in the Sky Sports-televised Arc final at Swindon. But while the champ is back to defend his crown, its kennelmate Mark My Words that gets Darrell Williams' vote in a wide open showdown.

With Swindon usually occupying a BAGS slot on a Wednesday evening, it's ironic that the live Sky card would do justice to a betting shop race programme, with the feature Arc final (21:45) undoubtedly one of the toughest puzzles of them all.

Defending champion Farloe Titan might have been turned over in both his quarter- and semi-final, but with a hit rate of nine from 12 at the Wiltshire venue, he obviously warrants maximum respect. But while he can also boast a three from four record from trap three, his make-up looks fraught with danger, with neighbour Glenard Sunrise likely to be making for the rails from traps rise.

For all his consistency, 'Titan' is ultimately most effective on the front end, and while his price [5.5] offers a fair spot of value, I'm reluctantly inclined to look elsewhere, given the likely competition for early supremacy.

John Mullins' Buzz Doc has improved throughout the competition, and looks a live player from trap two, especially as he is equally effective on or off the pace. A semi-final place in the Essex Vase just before Christmas confirms his stamina, and he looks tempting at an attractive [6.5].

However, my vote goes to Paul Sallis' second-string Mark My Words, who arguably put up the performance of the competition so far when getting up close home to win a first round heat that justifiably could have been the final.

While unable to reel in Buzz Doc in his semi-final after early trouble, he is expected to lead up Oaks winner Freedom Emma, after which he should enjoy a clear run out wide to ensure the prize, once again, heads back to Sallis' Derbyshire kennels.

Elsewhere on the card, apart from Monmore Puppy Derby winner Droopys Greg, who looks hard to beat at short-odds in the 20:15 - even more so after a sharp sprint trial the other day - the rest of the card looks difficult with a capital D!

That said, a couple of winners should equate to a profit, and I fancy Thurlesbeg Bound (20:50) might be worth staying with after her impressive win at Wimbledon on Trainers Championship night.

Seamus Cahill's charge has since posted a decent sprint time on her first look at the track, and looks well drawn between wide-favouring Borna Jessica - held on Wimbledon form - and railer Westmead Osprey.

Fifis Rocket is bound to attract plenty of attention in the sprint (20:00) after his near
track-record win at Wimbledon, but I'm convinced he is far better there than elsewhere, and looks one to take on. Me Buddy makes plenty of appeal from trap one, but at twice the price I just prefer Sleeping Urban, who has been notching up plenty of sprint victories around Hove.

Killishin Masai, for ever now in the record books as one of the Romford triple dead-heaters earlier this year, returns after a short layoff and looks over-priced in the 737m contest at 21:10. Chris Kyme's charge has an excellent record fresh and has trialled in well. He also won over the 685m trip on his only other start at the track last December.

The other stayers' race at 20:35 looks wide-open, but Droopys Start could hardly have won in better style on his first visit last weekend and is worth staying with. Local favourite Wise Totty looks far too big in the market and might be worth a small saver.

Track-record holder Crusty Crab, is another under-estimated local, and is taken to claim the 509m contest at 21:25

Selections (in order of preference)

Thurlesbeg Bound 20:50
Droopys Start 20:35
Killishin Masai 21:10
Mark My Words 21:45
Sleeping Urban 20:00
Crusty Crab 21:25

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: By George, it's Tom!

Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 06 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rory's getting behind two Tom George runners this afternoon

"At odds of [12.5] or better, I’d back Morgans Bay win and place."

Rory Delargy joins Paul Jacobs on Timeform Radio racing at Huntingdon and Sedgefield, with full coverage of the Irish meeting at Naas.

Tom George is a trainer who has endured a largely wretched season, saddling just 4 winners from more than 100 runners from late-October until the beginning of March. What a difference a week makes, as they say - trebles on Thursday and again yesterday make George the hottest trainer in the land.

He saddles a pair of runners at Huntingdon today, and while neither jump off the page from a form perspective, both can be expected to do much better now that the stable is enjoying such a renaissance.

Morgans Bay (14:10) was a promising enough bumper runner to cause one of George's main patrons, Simon Clarke, to shell out a six figure sum for him after finishing second to the smart Problema Tic at Aintree. A couple of runs over hurdles have been wretched, but that form, as the last week has proved, can be binned in its entirety. Morgan's Bay has First In The Queue and Robin de Creuse to beat, and the latter looks the biggest threat. At odds of [12.5] or better, I'd prefer to back Morgans Bay win and place.

The second of the Tom George runners has more obvious win claims. Back Bob Back (16:40) won an Irish point before joining another of George's main patrons for £53,000. He has shown more than enough ability when travelling well in two starts over hurdles to suggest that he will be seen to better effect jumping fences at today's trip of two-and-a-half miles. There is plenty of mileage in backing him at a generous Betfair price of [6.0].

Recommended bets:
Back Back Bob Back in the 16:40 Huntingdon @ 6.0 (NAP)
Back Morgans Bay (win and place) in the 14:10 Huntingdon @ 12.5 (NB)

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It's Valentines, love my graph!

Pud's Poker Progress / Matthew Pitt / 14 February 2011 / 1 Comments

Not only is today Valentine's Day it is also the midpoint of February and I think that today is as good as any to review my Hold'em Manager database and update on my poker progress. As most of you will know I moved up stakes during the last week of January and I have been trying my arm at NL50 instead of the micro-stakes games that I used to frequent.

I am please to report that it I a case of so far so good with my quest to become a regular at NL50 and then progress to the dizzy heights of NL100. I have been extremely disciplined in the number of tables I have been playing, opting to never play more than two at once right now and the results have been pretty good so far. During February I have played 23.23 hours, logged 4,390 and won €202.44 (my account is in Euros, long story) and if I factor in bonuses and the like I am actually in profit to the tune of €281.23, which is pretty good in my book.

My actual profits would have been substantially higher but I played a God-awful session last weekend, which I admit was made worse by the fact I may have been more than tipsy on premium, oak-aged cider! During the session in question I play 339 hands and dropped a total of €123.85, which is only 2.5BI but still sounds like a lot of money. Something I have always struggled with is thinking of wins and losses in terms of BI or BB but I am getting better at this and it is one aspect of poker I need to work on. I went through my hand histories the following day, as I couldn't really remember playing, and found that I could have prevented around half of the losses so I was quite disappointed with myself, but instead of beating myself up about it I put it to the back of my mind as I knew I could and would beat this level in the long run.

I not only began to beat it but I was completely killing it, having seven winning sessions out of my next 11 and scooping €324.27 profit from 2,525 hands, including my best-ever day at the tables which saw me net €203.01, all this whilst running under expectation by around a full stack. Last night I had planned to play around 500 hands but those plans were dashed when the Poker Gods (amen) decided to kick me in the nuts again! I did manage to play 207 hands, during which time I was stacked four times, though I did claw back almost half of those losses to finish €113.96 down. It still sounds like a lot of money but it is only 2BI so it is nothing really. They are chips Matthew not money!

Some of the hands last night were coolers, one saw me get it all in with aces against a total fish on a baord reading 7d-9s-7s-4d only to find he was sat there with 8c7c and then I managed to get some 'tard to four-bet shove all in preflop with jacks into my kings and the board ran out 2d-3s-7c-Ts-Jh, yeah cheers river, much appreciated. The straw that broke the camel's back and caused me to log off was when I raised first in on the button with pocket tens and the small blind, who always protected his blinds and had a three-bet percentage well into double figures re-pops me quite big. I take this as an invitation to shove and discover that the lunatic also gets dealt kings from time to time too! Despite picking up an open-ended straight draw on the turn I failed to suck out and at that point I sat out of my games as I wasn't in the right frame of mind to play.

I tangled with a regular on a couple of occasions and came off worse but as he sat out he asked me for my Skype address (yorksh1repudding if you want it) so we could talk strategy and the like. He paid me a great complement when he said "at last, a decent regular" so I must be doing something right. We chatted, or rather typed, on Skype for a good hour and he seems like a decent bloke and I look forward to bouncing some hands off him and vice versa.

Plans for the second half of the money mainly revolved around volume though I will not be sacrificing quality for it just yet, instead logging more hours rather than more tables. I'm going to try and play a total of 37 hours, which would take me to 60 hours for the month and on the right track. I'm also aiming to continue to be disciplined in when I leave tables and when I actually play as this is often half of the battle IMO.

So I will leave it there for now, until next time thanks for reading and best of luck at the tables!

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