Copa America 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
After two rounds of matches Colombia are yet to concede a goal in Copa America 2011
"Even if Bolivia are more daring than usual in their pursuit of three points, Colombia’s defence looks robust enough to repel them"
Bolivia must play to win and Tobias Gourlay fancies their final Group A opponents, Colombia, will catch them out as a result
Colombia
Hernan Dario Gomez's Colombia are top of Group A after beating Costa Rica 1-0 and holding Argentina to a goalless draw. They were cautious against 10-man Costa Rica and played on the counter-attack against Argentina.
A win against Bolivia would ensure they finished top of Group A, but a draw would be enough to qualify. They have a talented forward in Radamel Falcao, but lack the creativity to make many chances for him. It seems unlikely they will move to all-out attack now.
Bolivia
Gustavo Quinteros' Bolivia also held tournament favourites Argentina to a draw, but then they went and lost 2-0 to outsiders Costa Rica. They really need to win on Sunday night, even though two third-placed teams will go forward from the group stage, but they haven't won away from their high-altitude homeland since beating South Africa in a friendly more than four years ago.
Bolivia are without their quick centre-half, Ronaldo Rivero, and a midfielder, Walter Flores, for this match because they were both sent off against Costa Rica.
Match Odds
Colombia are [1.65] favourites, even though they do not need to win to qualify. Bolivia make no appeal at [6.8], given the scarcity of wins away from home and the strength of Colombia's defence.
The draw? It might be the pick of the outcomes at [3.8], but the speed of Colombia's counter-attacks will unnerve its backers if Bolivia are forced into all-out attack late in the game. In particular, the overlapping fullbacks, Allen Zuniga on the right and Pablo Armero on the left, will stretch Bolivia's narrow defence. If you like the draw, perhaps take 0-0 ([9.8]) and 1-1 ([8.0]) in the Correct Score market for a bigger payout if one of them is right.
Over/Under Goals
Nine of the tournament's first ten games have stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is a [1.70] shot for this match. Colombia's last 12 matches have been just as light on entertainment and so have Bolivia's last six.
Bolivia really need to win to qualify and this might raise a concern about - heaven forfend - an open game. But even if they are more daring than usual in their pursuit of three points, Colombia's defence looks robust enough to repel them.
Colombia Clean Sheet
Lionel Messi, Carlos Tevez and Ezequiel Lavezzi were neutralised by Colombia's well-positioned defence, which has kept clean sheets in six of the team's last nine matches.
Argentina, admittedly, are much less than the sum of their parts at the moment, but Bolivia's forwards are unlikely to succeed where Messi and colleagues failed.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.70]
Recommended Bet: Back Colombia Clean Sheet @ [2.10]
Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
Don't forget - every single Copa America game is available for free via Betfair's fantastic Live Video service.
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