Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Argentina Apertura Betting: Camoranesi isn't done just yet

Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The one and only Mauro Camoranesi

"Playing not as a right winger, but as the central part of the trident
in a 4-2-3-1, Camoranesi started quietly, the game rather passing him
by for 35 minutes or so. But then, suddenly, he found space 25 yards
from goal and slipped a delicious pass outside him to Mauro Regeiro."

World Cup winner, Serie A stalwart and a much-travelled midfielder of genuine quality, Mauro Camoranesi now plays his football back in Argentina for Lanus. And there's still life in the old dog, says Jonathan Wilson.

It takes a little while to pick him out, but once you do, Mauro Camoranesi is unmistakable: the straight downward swoop of the nose, the bounce of the hair, the oddly soothing jerks of his running style, the number 16 shirt. He is 35 now and clearly not the player he once was, but there were moments in Lanus's 1-0 win over Emelec on Tuesday when you could still see the class that made him such an important part of Italy's World Cup squad in 2006.

Playing not as a right winger, but as the central part of the trident in a 4-2-3-1, Camoranesi started quietly, the game rather passing him by for 35 minutes or so. But then, suddenly, he found space 25 yards from goal and slipped a delicious pass outside him to Mauro Regeiro.

The number 10 dallied and the chance was lost, but Camoranesi seemed
inspired. Twice before half-time he tested Esteban Dreer, the Lanus goalkeeper, with long-range efforts and it was his flick to Regeiro that created the opening in which Mariano Pavone was brought down, costing Jose Luis Quinonez a red card.

Lanus is an odd place for Camoranesi to have ended up. It's an unlovely suburb to the south of Buenos Aires, noted for its industry and for being the birthplace of Diego Maradona. A long shopping street, in which a huge poster of Glen Johnson talks pride of place, leads from the bus and rail stations to the ground, the sort of
soulless, windblown, litter-strewn arcade that characterises satellite towns through the developed world. The stadium is compact and neat, and the barras impressive loud, but Lanus is essentially a small club for whom survival in the top flight is the major priority. They did win the apertura in 2007, but this is only their fourth season of Libertadores football.

Camoranesi has always shown a willingness to travel. He was born in Tandil and, despite growing up a River Plate fan, began his career with Aldosivi from Mar del Plata, just 100 miles from his hometown. He then had stints in Mexico and Uruguay before returning to Argentina in 1997 with Banfield.

After a season there it was back to Mexico with Cruz Azul, his form there earning a transfer to Verona. He played 54 league games for them before, in 2002, joining Juventus. That was where Camoranesi really made his name, playing 224 league games over eight seasons, winning three league titles (two of them subsequently lost as part of the fallout from the Calciopoli scandal) and a further 55 caps for Italy, whom he represented through his dual citizenship.

Amid the on-pitch celebrations that followed the World Cup final success over France in Berlin in 2006, he had his team-mate Massimo Oddo cut off a hunk of his hair, then ran to a camera and dedicated the success to the youth of Argentina, shorting - in Spanish - "para los pibes del barrios" ("for the kids of the [implicitly impoverished]
neighbourhoods").

After a year at Stuttgart Camoranesi joined Lanus in 2011. He still has touches of inspiration, as when he flicked a low free-kick between his legs for Pavone early in the second half on Tuesday. A neat through pass for Regeiro then created a chance for Silvio Romero, whose shot was superbly tipped over by Freer, but his legs were going
by then and, after dropping deeper, he committed a comedically awful foul, was booked and substituted almost immediately. Moments after he had gone off, Pavone turned in Diego Valeri's cross at the back post, the only goal of the game.

Lanus are no more than an ordinary side and the [6.2] available for them to win the Libertadores is far too short, but Tuesday's performance was good enough to suggest a team finding a pattern; even before Quinonez was sent off, they'd hit the woodwork twice. They lie eleventh in the clausura table after five games, just a point clear of
Argentinos Juniors whom they face on Friday, but they showed enough against Emelec to suggest the true gap may be rather greater than that. Certainly the [2.1] on offer for them to beat Argentinos looks enticing.

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Rugby World Cup Betting: Argentina to contain New Zealand

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Doubts about Richie McCaw's fitness remain

"McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final... "

Geoffrey Riddle marvels at the handicap lines available on the last quarter-final of the weekend. With key men ailing and their defence not as strong as it could be, will New Zealand struggle against Argentina?

New Zealand v Argentina, Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)

Argentina may not be of the same ability as the dynamic and brave squad that finished third four years ago but they rate a solid handicap wager to keep tabs on the All Blacks in their quarter-final at Eden Park.

The handicap start they have been given is quite extraordinary. At between 27-29 points it represents a victory of around four converted tries. In the last four tournaments only South Africa's 42-14 win over Samoa in 1995 has featured a team scoring four tries more than the opposition in the knockout stages. That 28-point margin is also the largest out of any knockout match during that period. It illustrates, of course, that New Zealand could win by this margin, but looking at those statistics, it seems unlikely.

The All Blacks naturally have the advantage of their Auckland fortress, and under Graham Henry they have outscored 15 teams by four tries or more, including sides such as South Africa, France and the British and Irish Lions in 2005.

Henry, however, does not have access to his best players and without Dan Carter it is questionable whether the All Blacks ever represent value in the handicap market. Henry has been forced to chop and change his side after injuries to Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guilford, the team's top tryscorers in the tournament.

Sonny Bill Williams gets his first start on the wing, but Keiren Read and Richie McCaw both take their places in the back row despite ongoing injury concerns. The rumours about McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final should the All Blacks reach that far. It is not an ideal situation, and hardly inspires confidence if you need a thumping win.

Argentina have one of the best defensive records in the tournament, having conceded 40 points. England and Scotland barely got near their tryline, and it was only a flash of brilliance from Ben Youngs that sealed England's victory against the Pumas.

New Zealand's penetration is far in excess of those two sides but going forward the All Blacks have neglected their defensive duties in the Pool stages.

All previous World Cups winners were amongst the top five defensive teams in the tournament, but Zealand have the second-worst defensive record out of the eight teams in the knockout stage behind France. They conceded only four tries when they lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy for the first and only time in 1987, and yet already they have leaked six.

It gives Santiago Phelan's side a prayer of crossing the tryline. Although Felipe Contepomi has been one of the worst kickers at goal in the past two World Cups, six of the eight underdogs were handicap winners.

It suggests that the early round of the knockout stages are more competitive that bookmakers either believe, or think they can get away with and it is time to take advantage of this.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Argentina +28 pts
1pt New Zealand by 16-20
1pt New Zealand by 21-25

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Tim Vickery's Copa America: Argentina and Brazil renew rivalry

Copa America Team Profiles / Tim Vickery / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Are Brazil heading for a third consecutive Copa America?

"Sergio Batista’s imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona some times look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Banega links up with Messi much as Xavi does at club level."

They're the stars of South American football, fierce rivals and the top two in Betfair's Copa America market. But will Argentina and Brazil be the teams to beat once again? Tim Vickery reports.

The last two versions of the Copa America have concluded with the dream final, with Brazil ([3.35] to win this time) overcoming Argentina ([2.02]) both times, sneaking a last gasp equaliser to win on penalties in Peru in 2004, and counter-attacking their way to comfortable victory in Venezuela three years later.

If everything goes to form, and the Betfair markets are proved right, they should meet up once more to decide the destiny of the title on July 24 - and this time, of course, Argentina are favourites and will have home advantage.

They also have plenty of other things going for them. Coach Sergio Batista's imitation Buenos Aires Barcelona have moments when they look like the real thing, with inspired interplay where midfielder Ever Banega links up with Lionel Messi much as Xavi does at club level. Doubts exist as to whether flank strikers Ezequiel Lavezzi and Angel Di Maria are sufficiently incisive in the penalty area, but with Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez, plus Higuain as a target man, there are plenty of attacking options.

The problems come at the other end. Argentina are unlikely to be able to sustain Barcelona-style pressing for the full 90 minutes, and as the game gets dragged back into their half, defensive problems can appear. The current crop of centre backs do not inspire great confidence, the goalkeepers even less so.

Such deficiencies are unlikely to be exposed in the first phase - Argentina have been given the easiest of the three groups - but in the knock out games, with the tension rising, that creaking defence will surely be put to the test - Brazil will certainly give it a thorough examination should they meet in the final or before.

They have a different challenge. Their defensive line looks solid - how Argentina would love a centre back with the speed, quality and quiet authority of Thiago Silva! Since Mano Menezes took over after last year's World Cup, the team have conceded just two goals in eight matches - one of them Messi's last minute winner when they met Argentina in Doha back in November.

Their problem that day - as it has been in the first year of the Menezes reign - has been to find the right attacking blend. The match against Argentina illustrated once more that the current side can struggle in the absence of a genuine centre forward, a penalty area specialist who can act as reference point and provide a platform for the likes of Neymar cutting in from behind. Leading striker Alexandre Pato scored in the first three matches after the World Cup, but is more of a mobile striker than a traditional number nine - and with the surprising omission of Leandro Damiao, the injury prone Fred is the only option of this type available.

Menezes' big hope is that time on the training ground will help his team to click, and that Santos' Paulo Henrique Ganso's recovery from injury gives him a playmaker capable of organising the attack.

His big fear, meanwhile, is that a lack of self-control might lead to red cards - as happened in the fateful World Cup quarter-final, and also in friendlies this year against France and Holland.

But if Brazil [3.3] can retain their emotional balance, then a better balance between attack and defence should make them strong candidates for a third consecutive Copa triumph, and better value than the hosts Argentina [2.02] even if they do meet in the final.

Recommended bet:

Back Brazil to win the Copa America @ [3.4]

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Copa America Team Guide: Argentina

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ezequiel Lavezzi's progress is likely to be tracked by Manchester City

"The pressure is on for the host nation as they bid to halt a silverware drought that dates back to the 1993 edition of this competition."

The opportunity to stage the Copa America is by no means a guarantee of glory, with just one of the last five hosts winning the trophy, however Argentina are rated favourites.

The odds
Argentina are [1.18] to top Group A and [2.02] to win the tournament.

The past
Though the joint-most successful team ever with 14 titles, the pressure is on for the host nation as they bid to halt a silverware drought that dates back to the 1993 edition of this competition. They reached the final in both 2004 and 2007, only to suffer defeat on both occasions to the enemy Brazil.

The coach
Sergio Batista is the man who has taken on the unenviable task of succeeding Diego Maradona, a role that comes with a guarantee of constant sniping from his predecessor: "It's easy for Batista to be low profile. If he so much as crosses the border and goes to Uruguay, no one knows who he is."

The rivals
Argentina boast fairly dominant head-to-head records against each of their Group A opponents over the course of their last five encounters, justifying their incredibly short price to finish first in it:
Colombia (W4 D0 L1)
Costa Rica (W3 D2 L0)
Bolivia (W3 D1 L1)

The wanted
So many Argentine players' futures are subject to speculation, though not all are guaranteed starting spots to impress. Sergio Aguero has signalled his intention to exit Atletico Madrid and has plenty of admirers, Javier Pastore is likely to leave Palermo and Valencia could sell Ever Banega, while Ezequiel Lavezzi is a rumoured Manchester City target. And then in addition to all that, there is Carlos Tevez!

The fresh faces
Marcos Rojo and Lucas Biglia have already made it to Europe with Spartak Moscow and Anderlecht respectively but it is only since Batista's arrival that they have been given a chance to challenge for a regular place in the national side, and to date they have made the most of the opportunity.

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Copa America Betting: Man City star seizes Argentina chance

Copa America / Michael Lintorn / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Carlos Tevez indicated against Albania that he can function alongside Lionel Messi in a 4-3-3

"The Manchester City captain wasn’t even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection, only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista."

A few weeks ago, Carlos Tevez didn't even look likely to make Argentina's Copa America squad, but the latest signs are that he could yet play a significant role.

Carlos Tevez went a long way to ending the debate over whether he will be one of the three Argentina players to miss out on a place in their final 23-man Copa America squad this weekend by taking his opportunity to impress as a substitute in Monday's 4-0 friendly stroll against Albania.

The Manchester City captain wasn't even expected to make the 26-man preliminary selection only to benefit from a late U-turn by Albiceleste coach Sergio Batista, who remains unconvinced that the Argentine hero is suited to a role in the 4-3-3 formation that he is honing ahead of the tournament.

Batista has made drastic changes to the side he inherited from Diego Maradona after last summer's World Cup and is attempting to borrow a ploy from Barcelona boss Pep Guardiola by using Lionel Messi as the centre forward, the result of which is that there is no obvious slot in the team for Tevez.

The new system has proven effective in getting the best out of Messi, who has previously been accused back home of failing to replicate his Barcelona form when wearing the national team shirt, and he was the star performer as Albania were dismantled, however Tevez showed his worth too.

The former Boca Juniors striker came on at half time and impressed as part of a front three that still included Messi, scoring his first Argentina goal in nine months at the death after good work from fellow substitute Sergio Aguero.

Wide man Ezequiel Lavezzi grabbed his first goal for his country too to illustrate that in attack, the Copa America hosts look capable of justifying their [2.02] favourite status. Their options are so vast that the Argentine press predict that Diego Milito will be the one to make way when the squad is cut to 23, alongside defender Luciano Monzon and midfielder Diego Valeri.

It is at the back that question marks persist though as Batista bids to arrest his nation's 18-year wait for silverware, with the centre-back pairing of Nicolas Burdisso and Gabriel Milito untested against Albania but yet to prove that they are dependable.

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International Friendly Betting: Nigeria v Argentina

Internationals / Michael / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

The absences some of big-name stars from Argentina's squad may mean that players like Manchester City's Pablo Zabaleta get a rare chance to impress

Any Argentine players anticipating a heroic reception upon arrival in Abuja will have been in for a shock with the Nigerian media absolutely furious at the lack of big names that the South Americans have sent over for the fixture, with Lionel Messi, Javier Mascherano, Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria all missing out.

The Nigerian Football Federation claim not to be bothered though, pointing to Saturday's Champions League Final and Sergio Batista's wish to try less experienced players ahead of July's Copa America, which they host and are [2.12] favourites to win on Betfair, and there is no doubting the motivation of the visitors with places in the squad for that tournament up for grabs.

The duo last clashed a year ago at the World Cup, when a full-strength Argentina side strolled to a 1-0 victory that was far more comfortable than the result suggests. The Albiceleste have never been beaten by the Super Eagles in four meetings, winning three and drawing the other, and the African nation have failed to score in the last three.

So while the 22-man Argentina travelling party boast an average of just 2.36 caps a player, there is plenty of reason to believe that the lesser lights given a chance to shine - and there are several established stars still involved, such as Pablo Zabaleta, Nicolas Otamendi and Mario Bolatti - will seize the opportunity at [2.2].

Since the start of 2010, Nigeria have won just one of seven encounters with countries from outside their own continent, and none of their last four. Their performance in South Africa last summer was so poor that their governing body attempted to withdraw them from international competition for two years. It will be a shock if they defeat even a weakened Argentina line-up at [3.9], with the draw looking their best hope at [3.4].

Samson Siasia's team have been prolific of late however, striking in all three of their games in 2011, so as five of Argentina's six matches in that time have involved both nations scoring, that looks like another bet worth pursuing at [1.75].

Best Bet: Argentina to win at [2.2]
Other Recommended Bet: Both teams to score at [1.75]

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International Friendly Betting: Argentina v Portugal

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

I Believe in Meireles: The Liverpool midfielder has scored four times already this year.

"Meireles has scored four times in his last five Premier League appearances."

Tobias Gourlay explains why you should look beyond Ronaldo and Messi for your value bet on Wednesday's big match in Geneva.

Cristiano Ronaldo versus Lionel Messi. The first meeting of Portugal and Argentina since 1972. What a momentous occasion this could have been. If only it wasn't a friendly being played in Switzerland. Expect more neutrals than partisans in Geneva on Wednesday night.

Messi might be injured too. With Aguero, Tevez and Higuain already missing, this will only encourage Argentina's coach, Sergio Batista, to use another one of his fringe players. That's usually the point of friendlies these days, but this one was supposed to be a money-spinner.

At least Paulo Bento's playing ball. The Portugal coach has chosen Ronaldo, Nani and even Ricardo Quaresma in his squad. Bento has won his first three games in charge and might exploit the good club form of Liverpool's Raul Meireles in this match.

Meireles has scored four times in his last five Premier League appearances. The international scoring records of Messi and Ronaldo are not as good as you might think and, if he starts, Meireles will be a more appealing bet in the To Score market at [8.0] or more.

Argentina only conceded twice in seven friendlies in 2010. Remember, though, that Diego Maradona, who liked to play up to four centre-backs in the same team, was in charge for most of those games. Batista's tactical plan is not yet fully developed.

While that is the case - and while he is up against another novice coach - bettors should be cautious, especially over friendlies in which he has said he will be experimenting. Portugal look much better value at [3.25] than Argentina at [2.46], if you must get involved in Match Odds betting.

Best Bet: Back Raul Meireles To Score at [8.0]

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