The BMW PGA Championship: Course form is critical, says The Punter

Our man takes a good look at England's only European Tour event of the year, where the entire Ryder Cup team will be putting in an appearance. What will it take to win around Surrey's finest? Read Steve's in-depth preview here...

Tournament History
The first BMW PGA Championship was played at Wentworth back in 1972. Three years later it moved to Royal St.Georges, which hosted the event for the next three years, and then for the six years from 1978 to 1983 it was played at a number of different venues before it returned to Wentworth in 1984, where it's been staged ever since. This will by the 42nd edition of the European Tour's flagship tournament and again, sadly, it's the only European Tour event of the season to be held in England.

Venue
Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

Course Details
Par 72 -7,302 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 - 73.25
Opened in 1926 and designed by Harry Colt, the West Course, also referred to as Burma Road, has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 but the biggest change of all came on the par five 18th hole. At the mercy to modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a dirty great stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Poor Ernie had to put up with a lot of criticism in 2010 when players first met with the new design and in truth, it didn't quite work. Most players attempting to find the green in two found the water and the vast majority decided to play it as a three-shot hole so prior to last year's renewal the landing area was extended and flattened out and the green was rebuilt.

After two years as a ridiculously tough par 4, the 12th hole was changed back to a par five before last year's renewal too and it finished the week as the second easiest hole. Only the par 5 4th played easier.

Wentworth is a tight, tree-lined, fairly flat course with tricky-to-read greens that run at just 10 on the stimpmeter.

Check out the link below for more on the course.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Tour
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports - 10am on Thursday and Friday and 12.30pm on Saturday and Sunday. Highlights only over the weekend on BBC.

Last Five Winners
2012 - Luke Donald -15
2011 - Luke Donald -6 (Playoff) (Par 71)
2010 - Simon Khan -6 (Par 71)
2009 - Paul Casey -17
2008 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -11 (Playoff)

What will it take to win the BMW PGA Championship?
Being able to play in windy conditions and having the experience of the Wentworth wind is crucial. As well as a yardage book, the players are issued with a wind map but just how much it helps I've no idea. It can be quite baffling at times, you can be in one spot on the course and barely feel the wind but then you can walk along a short while and it'll be blowing a gale! The course plays very much harder in breezy conditions and it can be very confusing for those with little course experience.

A straight game is definitely preferable to a long one and patience is a prerequisite too. To win here you need to bide your time, avoid trouble and make your score on the long holes.

Is there an angle in?
Course form stands up really well and it often pays to follow those that have shown a liking to the place already. The likes of Rory McIlroy, Ian Poulter, Graeme McDowell and Padraig Harrington always seem to struggle and are simply not worth persevering with. In contrast, plenty of players, and some of them far from fashionable, play well here year after year. You need to oppose the Wentworth wobblers and get with the Wentworth winners.

Is there an identikit winner?
British players, and English players in particular have a great record in the event and an Englishman has won the last four renewals.

There have been some big-priced winners in the past and the unheralded Simon Khan took the title in 2010, the first year the event was played following the major course changes, but over the last two years the very best have been slugging it out come Sunday.

Lee Westwood pushed Luke Donald all the way two years ago and last year it was Justin Rose. It's a sterner test than ever now, especially in the wind, and I'll be surprised if we get a shock winner this year.

In-Play Tactics
At the time of writing, the forecast suggests strong winds will be an ever-present over the first two days, before conditions improve over the weekend. It's going to be fairly cold too, so don't expect low-scoring. It may be that the market doesn't quite recognise a good score on Thursday morning and there might be a bit of value about early on.

Ordinarily I'd expect around - 6 to be leading after day one but I fancy it could be considerably higher this year.

With two par 5s to finish, anything can happen and big swings can occur late on. There were only eight eagles made all week on 17 and 18 last year (four on each) but a birdie-birdie finish isn't uncommon. And nor is a bogey-bogey finish either. Luke Donald blew a great chance here in 2010 when he double-bogeyed the 17th and now that there's water in front of the 18th, anything can happen there too.

Market Leaders
Nick Faldo won this event four times, and Bernard Langer and Colin Montgomerie both did so on three occasions, so multiple wins are fairly common. Monty won his three-in-a-row between 1998 and 2000 and Luke Donald has an excellent chance of emulating him this time around.

Second and third favourites, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood, both have largely disappointing form around Wentworth and both are readily dismissed at the prices, and so too is Justin Rose.

With two second placed finishes around Wentworth, Rose has the course form in the book but he's been off the boil for a while now and his missed cut at the Players Championship hardly bodes well.

The entire winning Ryder Cup team from Medinah is present this week and I have to wonder if that's the only reason Sergio Garcia is playing. He's been quite well-supported in the market but given he hasn't played in this event since 2000 I'm more than happy to pass him up. Romilly Evans looks at the Spaniard in depth in this piece here.

Selections
Although I've only had a very small wager on Luke Donald, I felt I couldn't leave him out of my calculations entirely. He isn't quite at the top of his game at present but nobody in the field plays Wentworth as well as him and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him win it for a third straight year.

I've outlined the case for South African, Branden Grace, here and for small stakes only I've given his fellow countryman, Ernie Els, one more try at a big price.

The Big Easy used to live at Wentworth and he owned the Volvo Match Play here, winning it a record seven times, but for some bizarre reason, he's never won this one. He had to deflect an awful lot of flak two years ago over the course changes and then last year he lost the plot over the watering of the greens. Hopefully he can have a more peaceful week this year and just concentrate on contending.

He's been putting well of late, he'll be in the minority when it comes to being able to figure out the wind over the first two days and he was far too big at 70.069/1.

Playing on a medical exemption twelve months ago, and following five straight missed cuts, Richard Sterne really caught the eye with his 6th placed finish. He was also third here in 2007 and over the last six months on the European Tour, he's the number one performer on the par fives. He's already a winner this season, having claimed the Joburg Open in February, and I can see him going really well this week.

Paul Lawrie has a great record at Wentworth and the tough conditions on Thursday and Friday may play to his strengths. He's not the fastest starter and often has too much to do over the weekend but it might be a bit of grind over the first two days this year and that should suit him.

Putting has been his weakness this year but he tweeted yesterday that the "putter had been good this week".

My final selection is Brett Rumford, who I was very surprised to get 120.0119/1 about. Rumford has won his last two stroke play events and was 4th here in 2006, so he has both current and course form. He grew up in Perth, playing the tree-lined Lake Karrinyup Country Club and contending with the notorious Fremantle Doctor. He has one of the finest short games in the world at present, it won't matter a jot how hard the wind blows and there's no way he should be trading at a tripe-figure price.

Pre-Event Selections
Luke Donald @ 9.617/2
Branden Grace @ 55.054/1
Ernie Els @ 70.069/1
Richard Sterne @ 70.069/1 (Fixed Odds)
Paul Lawrie @ 75.074/1
Brett Rumford @ 120.0119/1

I'll be back later on with a preview of the week's other event, The Crowne Plaza Invitational.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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BMW PGA Championship: Each-way selections for the European Tour's flagship event

"I remember vividly Willett briefly taking control of this tournament before folding in 2010, since then the young Englishman has broken his duck on the European Tour and may be a different proposition in contention."

Wentworth is the venue for this week's main event, and it doesn't get much better on the European Tour than the BMW PGA Championship, an event in which Betfair are paying 1/4 Odds for the first six places. So here's who betting.betfair's golf contributors believe can claim a place...

Dan Geraghty says: Back Danny Willett @ 126.0n/a

Danny Willett hasn't played competitively since early March, when he finished fifth at the Tshwane Open in South Africa; he's kept himself busy in the meantime with a stag do and wedding. After two months off it's anyone's guess how the newly married golfer will perform this week but at 126.0n/a it's worth a risk. I remember vividly Willett briefly taking control of this tournament before folding in 2010, since then the young Englishman has broken his duck on the European Tour and may be a different proposition in contention.

Mike Norman says: Back David Horsey @ 71.0n/a

Whatever the level, continually getting into contention and finishing high up has to do the confidence a world of good. So it doesn't matter that David Horsey's last three appearances have been in low-profile, low-on-quality European Tour events. The fact that he finished second, fourth, and sixth does matter as it shows the young Englishman is playing some of the best golf of his career. He's also a two-time winner on the European Tour and finished in a tie for seventh here in 2011 when in similar form. A reproduction of his golf in the last month must see him go well.

Joe Dyer says: Back Richard Sterne @ 51.0n/a

Richard Sterne has spent a couple of years in the golfing wilderness but has been a revitalised figure this year. A win at the Joburg Open in February ended a five year drought but was the sixth of his European Tour career, so we know he can be trusted when in contention.  Long off the tee but accurate with it, Sterne has also been putting well this year and possesses the game to go well at Wentworth as two top-10 finishes, including a sixth in 2012, would testify.

Paul Krishnamurty says: Back Matteo Manassero @ 67.0n/a

Wentworth is very much a course that requires plenty of learning, favouring experienced players, so we should sit up and take notice when a youngster immediately gets the hang of the place. Matteo Manassero made the top-20 on his course debut at the age of 17 and a year later held the lead going into the final round. Pressure took it's toll on that occasion but the brilliant young Italian, still only 20, looks a surefire winner of this event one day. Though he hasn't set the golfing world alight yet this season, Manassero has been consistent, making the top-25 on every European Tour start and, as usual, hitting a very high percentage of fairways.

Steve Rawlings says: Back Branden Grace @ 51.0n/a

Branden Grace was no match for match play specialist Graeme McDowell on Sunday in the semi-finals of the Volvo World Match Play but it was still a hugely encouraging week. Understandably, the South African hasn't yet matched the spectacular heights of 2012, when he won five times (four times on the European Tour) but he might not be far off winning again now. His fifth place finish on debut last year was a tremendous performance and if he builds on that he'll be bang in contention on Sunday afternoon.

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BMW PGA Championship: New drive needed for a winning Serg at the BMW

"Garcia was the major omission on that contact list. And major omissions are, of course, something at which Sergio excels."

Romilly Evans profiles Sergio Garcia who bids to put fifth-major implosion behind him at the European Tour's equivalent...

It may not be a truth trumpeted by those self-help gurus, but the secret to happiness is low expectations. You heard it here first. High expectations mean you're seldom elated and regularly disappointed. Lesser hopes, on the other hope, mean you're often pleasantly surprised.

Managing such outlooks, however, is easier said than done. And that fact goes some way to explaining exactly why Sergio Garcia has been looking so glum in recent seasons, despite possessing a game which effortlessly puts him on the periphery of the world's top 10 even when he's not playing his best. Four victories on three world tours in the past 18 months have also re-established Garcia as a consistent winner, but with the rub of the green he could have easily had a handful more.

The most recent near-miss came at the recent Players Championship at Sawgrass where the Spaniard had the lead alongside Tiger Woods before he made a big splash at the treacherous 17th hole. Two balls plunged into a watery grave gifting the "fifth major" to Woods.

It didn't help, of course, that Sergio made Tiger his prime beneficiary. Especially after their very public spat a day earlier. Garcia accused the game's Top Cat of disturbing him mid-swing by pulling a club from his bag to excite the large galleries watching the pair during the third round. Woods denied the accusations, sniping that it was "not real surprising that he's complaining about something," before adding that he had asked the marshals if he was clear to draw after Garcia had played.

Interestingly for a media looking to stoke the fires of a feud, Woods' testimony was later flatly denied by accompanying marshal, Gary Anderson. "Tiger didn't ask us nothing, and we didn't say nothing." Anderson's boss, John North, then fanned the flames even higher. "I was disappointed to hear Tiger's remarks. He was saying what was good for him. It lacked character."

That Woods would indulge in self-serving activities shouldn't shock anyone. He's made a legendary career out of it. And wrecked a family-man profile too. Garcia may be in a different league to Woods personally. As he retorted, "I'm not the bad guy here." Yet golf isn't an exercise in ethics. Garcia had previously planned to challenge Woods professionally.

Back in the day - in the final round of the 1999 USPGA to be precise - it looked as though Sergio might be the one contender who could chase Woods into the next generation. Maybe even catch Tiger by the tail and swing him around a bit. The flamboyant wunderkind burst on to the scene at Medinah with a miraculous eyes-wide-shut recovery from the roots of a tree. El Nino even had the audacity to taunt Tiger by gesturing at him "to come catch him."

Trouble for Garcia is: Tiger did catch him. Not just at Medinah. But over and over again since in the greatest rivalry never to materialise. Even at the 2006 Open at Hoylake, a more seasoned Garcia turned up for their final-round pairing, clad in brash canary yellow. Yet the sartorial statement was as misjudged as his subsequent play, tumbling off the pace and paving the way for Tiger's 11th major championship. "I just whopped Tweetie Pie," Woods would later text his address book.

Garcia was the major omission on that contact list. And major omissions are, of course, the lone blot on Garcia's CV. While Woods quickly blazed a trail to 14, the 33-year-old has stalled on the grid. And despite 57 attempts, he remains stuck on zero with an agonizing three runner-up berths, five top-fours and 17 top-10 finishes.

For most golfers, Garcia's résumé (which features 24 wins and a 2008 Players title) is to die for. But Garcia is not most golfers. His achievements pale in comparison to the man he was expected to rival. Just as those expectations once escalated, now they are subsiding. And after his Sawgrass demise, they are back at a new low. No-one expects Sergio to get the job done.

Paradoxically, though, maybe everything will be better for having been made worse. Talent certainly isn't shackling the Spaniard. Even his dodgy putting stroke has been restored this term - he is third in the key stat of Strokes Gained on the greens - so once again there appears no obvious weakness in his game.

Sergio should also feel inspired after his good pal, Adam Scott, finally put his own spell of major irritation behind him at Augusta in April. Few appreciate Garcia's innate ability more than the Australian. "Sergio can win any week, any course, any venue," elaborated Scott. "His ball-striking is that good and now his putting's on." It takes one to know one.

Scott was nearly 33 when he shook the major monkey off his back. He now looks ready for more. Similarly, greats like Phil Mickelson and Ben Hogan didn't break through till their early thirties before going on the win multiple majors. Even the lesser light of Stewart Cink was 36. Heck, Todd Hamilton was 38.

So, at 33, Sergio still has time on his side. And he will put be back in contention soon. Perhaps even at this week's BMW Championship at Wentworth, the European Tour's own "fifth major". At least he's now put a transatlantic sea of tears between him and his tormentor Tiger. All Garcia must do is not mistake a chance to succeed as another chance to fail.

The unpredictable Spaniard has more shots and perspective than most self-involved tour pros combined. He's the golfer most caddies want to chat to in the clubhouse, but the bag none wants to carry because of his wayward attitude on the course. Which makes him such a fascinating and exciting character.

To date, Garcia's passion and charisma have all too often been bootlegged by frustration. Frustration at expectations extinguished. But endless dissatisfaction and the desire to disprove the doubters can be harnessed as a positive force. It's certainly helping Garcia get out of bed in the morning. And for that, golf should always be grateful.

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Players Championship Tips: Masters man Scott one of four three-ball selections on day one at Sawgrass

"Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months."

Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 

Golf's Fifth Major begins at Sawgrass on Thursday and what better way to get in the mood than a sprinkling of three-ball bets? Dan Geraghty has picked a quartet to follow on day one...

Experience is key at TPC Sawgrass and recent Masters winner Adam Scott has it in abundance. The Australian fulfilled his potential in devastating fashion at Augusta. With that confidence boost it would be no surprise to see him put in a strong performance this week at a venue where he became the youngest winner of the Players Championship in 2004 (at 23 years old). Scott tees off in the first round with Rory McIlroy, who says Sawgrass doesn't suit him and Steve Stricker who may be the danger at a big price.

Tim Clark is another former Players champion and is perhaps a worthy favourite for his three-ball. However, Kevin Streelman has been in superb form this season and he too has some good rounds at the Players on his CV. The American rates the bet at a nice price. D A Points makes up the trio - in three appearances here his form figures read M/M/WD.

Boo Weekley has bounced back to form with a bang this year and in a weak three-ball stands out as a strong pick against first round opponents Andres Romero, who is again struggling for form, and David Lingmerth who is making his debut in this event. Weekley was 21st here in 2008 when last in this kind of form.

Nick Watney took a little while to adjust to his new Nike clubs but has hit upon a real consistent run of results in recent months. The American's form figures at Sawgrass are at least as good as three-ball favourite Lee Westwood's, if not better. Ian Poulter makes up the trio, the Englishman has some fine rounds here to his name but has been struggling for form this year.

Recommended Bets 
Back Adam Scott @ 2.47/5 
Back Kevin Streelman @ 2.75n/a 
Back Boo Weekley @ 1.910/11 
Back Nick Watney @ 2.77/4 
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Championship Betting: Back Wolves for safety and Blackburn for the drop

"If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight’s game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season."

Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

Callum Davis takes a look at the Championship relegation battle ahead of Blackburn's trip to Millwall tonight - a game that could prove pivotal to Rovers' survival hopes...

Even by the Championship's usual standards of tense competition, this season has been one of the most closely contested for many years. Although the second automatic promotion spot and playoff positions are far from being decided, it is at the bottom of the table where the most enthralling drama looks set to unfold. 

A mere five points separate Barnsley in 23rd from Ipswich in 15th and all the teams in between have the genuine threat of relegation to League One hanging over them as we approach the final two weeks of the season. As predictions go, this one is exceptionally hard to call and the cluster of clubs sitting so closely together above the relegation zone means that the outcome could conceivably come down to goal difference on the last day.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, momentum in the Championship at this stage of the season has previously proven to be the key to the success or demise of any club hoping to avoid relegation or gain promotion, and this year will be no different. Reading's late acceleration into the automatic promotion spots last season was largely due to their extraordinary run of victories late in the campaign, while Bolton's latest surge up the table into the playoffs is another example of the effect a good run of form can have in such a closely congested table as the Championship. You only have to look at Crystal Palace's abysmal run which has seen them go from challengers for automatic promotion to a team who are clinging on to a place in the playoffs after no wins in six to see how damaging a dip in form can be.

While Bolton have found some stability since relegation and genuine form under Dougie Freedman, the two other relegated sides from last season, Wolves and Bolton, have found themselves facing the prospect of the dreaded double drop. Although Wolves currently reside in the relegation zone in 21st, it is Blackburn's current demise which is looking more critical. Ahead of tonight's visit to The Den, Blackburn sit just two points above the drop on the back of five losses from six away games and on the precipice of losing their Championship status.

Blackburn's season has been punctuated by a series of farcical managerial dismissals which has turned the Rovers from much fancied pre-season promotion candidates to a team in free-fall with a fundamental crisis of leadership.

If Blackburn are going to ensure their Championship safety tonight's game against Millwall seems like a real make-or-break point in their season. With remaining fixtures against Crystal Palace at home and Birmingham away on the last game of the season, Rovers fans will feel uneasy with the prospect of needing to get a result in one of those two games to ensure safety. Millwall are unbeaten in three against Blackburn and have kept clean sheets in each of those games, and despite Millwall's indifferent home record of late I'm unconvinced that Blackburn will be able get the result they need to distance themselves from getting drawn into the relegation places on the final day of the season. 

With that in mind, and given Blackburn's form and tricky run in, 6.611/2 for Blackburn to be relegated looks like the best value in the relegation market. If they come away from south London without a result that price should begin to shorten as Palace and Birmingham beckon.

Although the pressure is firmly on Wolves manager Dean Saunders to rescue the failing Midlanders, I'd be backing them to carry on their recent peak in form (ten points from their last six) to finish the season strongly and avoid relegation by the skin of their teeth, leaving Blackburn fans with the prospect of an uncertain future in the third tier of English football.

Recommended Bets

Lay Wolves to be relegated at 2.0421/20
Back Blackburn to be relegated at 6.611/2

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Championship: Watford prospering from Cardiff jitters

"Cardiff's previously iron grip on the title is wavering and by the time they take to the field again on Tuesday, Watford could have turned up the heat yet further by bridging the gap to just two points with victory over Blackpool."

Surely Cardiff can't throw it away this time, can they? After another full Tuesday night programme in the Championship, Christian Crowther reacts...

Their outgoing chairman Dato Chan Tien Ghee may have succeeded in changing the club's colours last year but if Cardiff fail to sustain their title tilt and miss out on promotion again, the only colour everyone associated with the club will be turning is green.

With Watford recording their fourth win in five league games against Sheffield Wednesday and Cardiff drawing at home to Derby, the Hornets closed the gap at the top of the table to just five points.

Suddenly, Malky Mackay's men have to look over their shoulder with the gap to Hull in third only six points, though Cardiff do have a game in hand. They are a 1.211/5 lay for promotion.

Now all the lingering doubts of the past three seasons - in which the league leaders have missed out on promotion via the play-offs - plus the campaign prior to that in which they were pushed out to seventh on the final day will begin to enter Bluebird minds.

Cardiff's previously iron grip on the title is wavering and, by the time they take to the field again on Tuesday, Gianfranco Zola's Watford side could have turned up the heat yet further by bridging the gap to just two points with victory over Blackpool.

It's now just two wins in six games for Mackay's men, who are choosing exactly the wrong time to come down with a case of the jitters. 

Next Tuesday's game against fellow promotion hopefuls Leicester now takes on huge significance with the Foxes themselves in real danger of slipping out of contention after recording just one win in their last six Championship games, one of which was last night's 1-1 draw with Leeds.

Leicester's own hopes of promotion - now rated at 3.3512/5 - are laced with increasing fragility as the season enters the final stretch.

In contrast, Watford's relentless ascent, which has taken in eight wins and just one loss from their last 11 Championship fixtures, now sees the Hornets rated 7.413/2 second favourites to clinch the title.

Crystal Palace were the other big winners in the hunt for those hallowed automatic promotion spots as they overcame Hull, who were second, 4-2 at Selhurst Park courtesy of a Kevin Phillips hat-trick.

That win for Ian Holloway's side, the Eagles' fourth in five league outings, kept them within two points of second-placed Watford.

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BDO World Championship Tips: Wilson could Bully no.1 seed out of the tournament

"Wilson has beat Bunting on two of the three occasions that they crossed paths in 2012."

Back Wilson +1.5 sets @ 2.01/1

Jaymes Monte picks out his best bet from Sunday's Lakeside action as the 2013 BDO World Championships roll into a second day...

Having failed to qualify for last year's BDO World Championships Stephen Bunting heads into this staging of the event as the number one seed and second favourite for the title. The Bullet won the 2012 World Masters, 2012 Zuiderduin Masters and multiple smaller events over the past 12 months to catapult himself up the rankings and into contention for Lakeside glory.

But number one seeds don't have a particularly good track record at Frimley Green and Bunting has been handed a tricky opening round draw against an in-form James Wilson.

Wilson, a Bullseye winner more than two decades ago, has only recently picked up his darts again but is already beginning to make waves in the BDO. The 40-year-old reached the quarter-finals of the 2012 World Masters by beating Alan Norris and Scott Mitchell, amongst others, and has won the Jersey Classic and England GP of Darts Grand Final this season. He has also beat Bunting on two of the three occasions that they crossed paths in 2012, including in the Lancashire Open final.

As number one seed you'd expect Bunting to be the strong favourite, but he is too short at odds of 1.364/11 given the class of his opponent, and can be taken on in both the Match Odds and Handicap markets.

Wilson +1.5 sets is a 2.01/1 chance and the 3.613/5 about him going on to win the match is simply too big.

Recommended Bets:
Back Wilson to beat Bunting @ 3.65n/a
Back Wilson +1.5 sets @ 2.01/1

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: New Zealand v Australia

I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

Fresh from last week's defeat, Australia face a fearsome proposition when they take on the world champions on Saturday. The absence of David Pocock is a big blow to the Wallabies, says Geoffrey Riddle...

New Zealand v Australia, Saturday 08:45

• New Zealand have not lost to Australia in Auckland since 1986.

• New Zealand made eight clean breaks last week and beat defenders twice as many times as the Wallabies.

• The last time the two played there was in the Rugby World Cup semi-final. New Zealand were without Dan Carter and Australia played with David Pocock. The Wallabies lost 20-6.

• Not only have Australia lost captain and key openside flanker David Pockock, but Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury.

• There will be a completely different head-to-head on that side of the scrum as Tony Woodock, the All Black loosehead, also misses out and has been replaced by Wyatt Crockett.

• With Pocock leading Australia last week they still leaked more turnovers than New Zealand.

Match Preview

Australia endured the ignominy of failing to register a bonus point against New Zealand last week and must dust themselves off to face the world's best side in Auckland on Saturday. The Wallabies were within a score until Dan Carter slotted a penalty to take the score to 27-19 in Sydney.

The return leg, which sees the Bledisloe Cup in danger of remaining in All Black hands for a total of ten years, looks a fearsome proposition for Australia, who will be without their best player.

David Pocock was crucial to Australia's effort of keeping tabs on their trans-Tasman rivals last week but the inspirational skipper is injured and is in danger of missing the autumn internationals. Pocock very much helped Australia to obtain decent ball, which if they had not wasted with several unforced errors the scoreboard may well have had a different complexion.

His absence will be even more keenly felt by the side after coach Robbie Deans decided to hand Quade Cooper a recall. I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment. At the World Cup he was a real hindrance to the Wallaby cause. He needed to be shunted out to fullback so that he could be shielded from heavy traffic. In professional rugby there is simply no excuse for not being able to tackle. Even Charlie Hodgson is finally learning the art. Tackling has always been about technique and guts, which Cooper clearly has little of either.

What's more, at the World Cup even his fleet of foot and sleight of hand failed him. Going into the semi-final against New Zealand he had made just two line breaks in 400 minutes of play. Quite what we are to expect, after all of this time off from international rugby, is anyone's guess. My personal belief is not very much against the All Blacks. Cooper can have his sublime moments going forward, but that is usually when Pocock is in the ascendancy and his pack provide good, quick, clean ball. With Australia's star openside very much coming off second best last week against Richie McCaw and Co, the Wallabies have little hope of being on the front foot throughout the 80 minutes.

It's all too easy to assume, however, that just because Australia are hamstrung at the breakdown, and in defence through the No.10 channel, they are immediately in line for a thrashing. Sure, Dan Carter was not around when New Zealand prevailed in the World Cup semi-final but even with the Cantabrian it is questionable whether the home side should be over two converted tries better at kick-off.

New Zealand were not profitable to back on handicaps of this size at home in the Tri-Nations and Australia may well be up against it, but not as much as the odds-makers might have you believe.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Championship: Wolves poised for £24 million windfall

"Jarvis has played in both of their league matches this campaign under new boss Stale Solbakken, knuckling down and performing well regardless of his apparent desire to depart."

With Wolves about to pocket huge fees for their two most established stars, it is difficult not to feel impressed...

Wolves suits Steve Morgan and Jez Moxey were rightly ridiculed for bungling the search for Mick McCarthy's replacement, but their tough negotiating this summer is about to deliver remarkable results in the transfer market.

After weeks of wrangling, deals to send prize assets Steven Fletcher and Matt Jarvis to Sunderland and West Ham are edging closer. And while losing key players is far from ideal as they strive to return to the Premier League at the first attempt, they are poised to recoup staggering eight-figure sums for both.

The Fletcher transfer seems the nearest to conclusion after they reportedly accepted Sunderland's fourth offer for the Scotland striker, believed to total around £14 million, with the majority paid up front rather than being clause dependent.

There are even rumours, albeit played down by Wolves, that young Black Cats forward Connor Wickham could head to Molineux as part of the deal. Despite disappointing on Wearside last season, the 19-year-old has fared better at Championship level before for Ipswich.

Jarvis could also be on his way, with West Ham thought to have submitted a third bid that comes close to meeting their £10 million valuation for the one-time England winger, whose crossing ability is seen as an ideal fit for a Sam Allardyce side.

Unlike Fletcher, who confirmed handing in a transfer request to try to force a move, Jarvis has played in both of their league matches this campaign under new boss Stale Solbakken, knuckling down and performing well regardless of his apparent desire to depart.

That earned him a warm reception from fans as they claimed their first home victory of 2012 against Barnsley on Tuesday night, their three goals - one by reinstated front man Sylvain Ebanks-Blake - inspiring hope that their attack can thrive without Fletcher.

Solbakken has made it clear though that, if the duo are the follow Michael Kightly out of the club, he expects some of the funds raised to be reinvested. FC Copenhagen's Christian Bolanos is an alleged £3 million target for the Jarvis role.

Wolves are 11.010/1 to claim the Championship title after winning one and losing one of their first two games.

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The Open Championship: Tips for every first round 3-ball

"Phil Mickelson - Suddenly kicked into gear in the second round of the Scottish Open. Game is back but this is a different test."

The guys at Abelson Info know every single Open Championship participant inside out, so we've asked them to give a brief preview of all Thursday's three-balls (and a couple of two-balls).

06:19 2 Ball - Lane - Driscoll
Lane - Closed with a 66 in last weeks US Seniors Open. Not really able to compete at this level any more.
Driscoll - Good putter but is wayward off the tee and that won't help around here.
Selection: Take the old timer Lane to win the first battle of this years Open.

06:30 2 Ball - Finch - Mulroy
Finch - Up and down year but mainly down. Missed his last 5 cuts and doesn't look like changing that run here.
Mulroy - South African trying to make his way on the PGA Tour. Limited success there so far but has the ability to keep his tour card.
Selection: Go with Mulroy here as he is at least some signs of form.

06:41 3 Ball - Baldwin - Da Silva - Takayama
Baldwin - An underrated player who is playing as well as he ever has at the moment.
Da Silva - Largely plies his trade on the South African Sunshine Tour. This is a big step up and no real reason to think he is up to it.
Takayama - 5 wins on the Japan Tour and made the cut in this years US Open. Has some pedigree but hard to enthuse about.
Selection: Baldwin will take this easily.

06:52 3 Ball - Echenique - Ichihara - Huh
Echenique - Nothing this year. Came through qualifying but little else to support his case.
Ichihara - Came through Asian qualifying and has acquitted himself to some decent level on the Japan Tour.
Huh - One of the success stories of the year in the US. A top player for years to come.
Selection: The other two are well below Huh's class and that will show.

07:03 3 Ball - Lyle - Hamilton - Calcavecchia
Lyle - Sandy is still capable of the odd really good round but they are becoming less frequent.
Hamilton - This former Open champ will probably perk up when faced with this challenge.
Calcavecchia - Another who will relish this opportunity. Not a bad year so far on the Champions Tour.
Selection: This is set up beautifully for Calcavecchia to roll back the years.

07:14 3 Ball - Canizares - J.M Singh - Chalmers
Canizares - He has a lot of ability and is in pretty decent nick. I would however suspect a birdie course is better suited to his game.
Singh - I've no idea how he did it but he is coming off the back of a great win last week. He will not be backing that up here.
Chalmers - Five top 25 finishes on the PGA Tour this season but not suited by tight courses so I expect him to struggle here.
Selection: Canizares is a tentative choice in this contest.

07:25 3 Ball - Daly - Campbell - HoeyDaly - Big John still plays as well as ever. Has a great touch and this will be put to the test this week.
Campbell - He should do better for someone of his ability. Could go well.
Hoey - Has flattered to deceive recently. Has a links game but too many errors in there at the moment.
Selection: I just favour Daly to out perform his rivals.

07:36 3 Ball - Jaidee - Leonard - Khan
Jaidee - One of the form players on the European Tour. But this is his fifth week on the spin. A week too far probably.
Leonard - This former Open champion has completely lost his game. Discard.
Khan - He is having a poor year and I wouldn't expect that to change here.
Selection: Even a tired Jaidee is too good for his playing partners.

07:47 3 Ball - Duval - Jacquelin - Jimenez
Duval - The last winner here at Royal Lytham but in no form. Would be very popular if getting some spark back.
Jacquelin - 21st at the US Open last month and has continued that decent form. Good ball striker.
Jimenez - It is too early to write him off but he is in a poor run of form at best.
Selection: Take a wild punt at a decent price on Duval.

07:58 3 Ball - Ames - Rock - Stanley
Ames - Not the player he was and I can't see him taking to Blackpool.
Rock - Since the huge win in Abu Dhabi he has been a little off. Might have seen the best of him this season.
Stanley - Superb early season and then had a big dip. Starting to rediscover his form recently and could go very well this week.
Selection: I really like Stanley in this match up.

08:09 3 Ball - Cink - Cabrera-Bello - Wagner
Cink - The most unpopular Open champion in recent history. Has shown the odd glimpse of form but not a lot.
Cabrera-Bello - If he can keep it straight he could even challenge for the title. A real talent.
Wagner - This Texan may well enjoy it if it gets windy.
Selection: Go with Cabrera-Bello to take care of his PGA Tour partners.

08:20 3 Ball - Donaldson - Haas - Yang
Donaldson - Has had his week in the sun with his win at the Irish Open.
Haas - Could surprise a few people this week. One to watch.
Yang - Not his best year so far and I can't trust him until I see evidence of a turnaround.
Selection: Go with Haas.

08:31 3 Ball - Love - Clark - Paul Lawrie
Love - US Ryder Cup captain is playing his best stuff for some time.
Clark - I dont think he is quite back to his best but there are certainly positive signs.
Lawrie - I know a lot of people like Lawrie's chances this week - however I don't. He peaked too soon and won't feature.
Selection: Try Tim Clark as he could well be a real dark horse this week.

08:42 3 Ball - Scott - Dunbar - Kuchar
Scott - Playing well when he tees it up. Good player from rough and that will be very useful.
Dunbar - This young amateur can clearly play links golf so will love this challenge.
Kuchar - The Players Champion and a real machine. Could be a threat for the title this week.
Selection: All three have chances but I just give the edge to Scott.

08:58 3 Ball - Vijay Singh - Watney - Poulter
Singh - Solid stuff from Vijay at the moment - littered with the odd bit of magic.
Watney - Super consistent and one to consider. I am however worried about his pretty wayward driving.
Poulter - He tends to raise his game for the big ones and maybe not as much attention on him this year as in the past.
Selection: I have a good feeling about Poulter in this one.

09:09 3 Ball - Clarke - Els - Zach Johnson
Clarke - Defending the title is a lot of pressure. Has been in poor form but recent signs are good. He will put up a stout defence.
Els - Has more majors in him now he has re-dedicated himself. If he keeps it straight off the tee he has to be one of the favourites.
Johnson - Emotional win last week may have taken the stuffing out of him for this massive test.
Selection: Els is the man for this contest.

09:20 3 Ball - Westwood - Fujimoto - Bubba Watson
Westwood - No course is safe when Lee is on his game. Could this finally be his year?
Fujimoto - Turned pro just this year but at just 5ft 5in he had better hope it doesn't blow too hard this week.
Watson - The enigmatic Watson could well add to his major haul right here. Leads the greens in reg stat on the PGA Tour.
Selection: Tough call but I just favour Westwood.

09:31 3 Ball - Dustin Johnson - McDowell - Fujita
Johnson - Won a few weeks ago and should have been Open champion last year. Could put that right this time around.
McDowell - Always a danger at the big ones. Will be disappointed he didn't add another US Open last month.
Fujita - 13 Japan Tour wins but not nearly as proficient when venturing onto other tours.
Selection: This one has Johnson written all over it.

09:42 3 Ball - Woods - Rose - Garcia
Woods - Three wins already this season but aside from that I really like his stats. I think he is ready for another major.
Rose - A great ball striker and he won't be fazed by playing with Tiger. About time he contended for a big one.
Garcia - Just a fraction off top form. If he finds that bit extra he will be a danger to all. Needs a big second half of the season.
Selection: Take Tiger to get off to a flyer.

09:53 3 Ball - Ishikawa - Kaymer - Tom Watson
Ishikawa - Will come good eventually and win many events. I just don't think that will start here.
Kaymer - Too many elements of his game are off at the moment. He is not on my short list for the title.
Watson - Loves any Open and showed last week he can still play. Everyone wants to see him go well again this year.
Selection: Watson is good value to take care of his young rivals.

10:04 3 Ball - Schwartzel - Baddeley - Bjorn
Schwartzel - Hasn't played since the US Open due to a nagging chest muscle injury. Not good preparation for a major.
Baddeley - Far too wayward for this course. Is a brilliant putter though.
Bjorn - Has been in good form this season and is a terrific outside punt for the championship.
Selection: I see Bjorn taking this comfortably.

10:15 3 Ball - Dufner - Laird - Na
Dufner - Not been seen out since the US Open. Was in unbelievable form before that. Can't guarantee that will continue here though.
Laird - Played surprisingly well last week but I still think the Scot is better suited to target golf.
Na - Didn't get the prep he was looking for last week but this consistent player may find this course suits him better.
Selection: A real tricky one to call is this but just go for the controversial Na.

10:26 3 Ball - Morrison - Chopra - Luiten
Morrison - His game is littered with good rounds but just can't string a few together.
Chopra - Came through qualifying in the US but this has not been a good season for the Swede.
Luiten - I am fan of the Dutch youngster and I can see a big performance ahead.
Selection: Take a punt on Morrison to post a decent score.

10:37 3 Ball - Olesen - Matteson - Aiken
Olesen - Has to be one of the finds of the European Tour season. There will be many many victories ahead for this guy.
Matteson - So so close in the John Deere last week. Will be delighted to be here but not sure he will make the cut.
Aiken - Pretty reasonable form recently and well suited to this type of test. Could be a dark horse.
Selection: Aiken is a good bet here.

10:48 3 Ball - Kennedy - Mamat - Tiley
Kennedy - Won on the Japan Tour this season and playing some reasonable stuff the last couple of years.
Mamat - Has had a win on the Asian Tour this season but not one of its leading lights.
Tiley - Never quite reached even the second grade of professional golf. Can't see much happening this week.
Selection: Kennedy has the pedigree to beat his playing partners.

10:59 3 Ball - Bennett - Townsend - Veenstra
Bennett - A reasonable player back in the 90's. A shock comeback is going to get some headlines.
Townsend - Came through Australasian qualifying in gale force winds and rain. Very handy preparation.
Veenstra - Not a lot to recommend this South African. Don't expect to see his name near the top of the leaderboard.
Selection: I'm having a punt on Townsend to take this.

11:10 3 Ball - Whitnell - Walker - Elliot Saltman
Whitnell - Still making his way in the game and does have a future ahead on the European Tour.
Walker - Won an event on the Challenge Tour last month but not sure that is quite the class he faces here.
Saltman - Squeezed through a play off to get to the championships but that is where his success ends.
Selection: Try former classy amateur Whitnell to show his skills.

11:31 3 Ball - Estes - O Hara - Jones
Estes - At the age of 46 is still competing pretty well on the PGA Tour. This isn't for him though.
O'Hara - Shown me nothing this season to suggest this could be his week.
Jones - Has had great success in Japan and a pretty competent player.
Selection: I like Jones to adapt best to this test.

11:42 3 Ball - Pagunsan - Pinckney - Cullen
Pagunsan - Has a few victories to his name on the Asian Tour but he is out of his depth here.
Pinckney - American playing on the European Challenge Tour - and with limited success.
Cullen - Aussie who is way out of his league here.
Selection: I have to side with Pagunsan here as he at least has some decent experience.

11:53 3 Ball - Alker - Slattery - Cochran
Alker - The Kiwi has tried his hand all over the world but is just a shade below the top pro levels.
Slattery - Not much recently but has the ability to go well at this kind of venue. One to watch.
Cochran - Solid enough US Senior Tour player who can play links well.
Selection: I favour Slattery in this match up.

12:04 3 Ball - Lehman - Larrazabal - Owen
Lehman - Still hits the ball well. Loves it here and arrives in tip top form.
Larrazabal - A talent for sure - but the Open at Royal Lytham is not the place he will perform.
Owen - Tremendously consistent player on the PGA Tour. Underrated and definitely a lively outsider for the event.
Selection: Lehman's experience will tell here.

12:15 3 Ball - Siem - Coetzee - Reavie
Siem - Not many Europeans have played consistently better this season. His win a couple of weeks ago is as good as it will get though.
Coetzee - Hits the ball clean but seriously needs to sort out his weekend play before he can be taken seriously.
Reavie - Not much to get excited about but is pretty straight off the tee so that may well keep him in the game.
Selection: Coetzee plays well enough early in tournaments to be the pick for this contest.

12:26 3 Ball - Fraser - Glover - Havret
Fraser - I've always been impressed with Fraser on tough tracks. Not to be under estimated.
Glover - Former US Open champ is not making any waves in 2012.
Havret - Another who has a penchant for tough courses. Finds it hard to win though.
Selection: Fraser is a very good bet here.

12:37 3 Ball - Howell III - Broadhurst - Sterne
Howell III - Charles has not progressed as was expected. Needs to sort his short game out big style.
Broadhurst - It's good to see Broadhurst back but this is a big ask.
Sterne - Hitting the ball well but will need to straighten up off the tee.
Selection: Sterne has the best credentials in this affair.

12:48 3 Ball - Pettersson - Kim - Woodland
Pettersson - Has made himself into a very good PGA Tour player. Just isn't suited to golf in Europe.
Kim - I like this guy. has some game and could have a decent future over the next few years.
Woodland - Awful short game will cost him here. Will be going home on Friday night.
Selection: Take a punt on Kim.

12:59 3 Ball - Curtis - Casey - Immelman
Curtis - A bit of a resurgence this season for the former Open champ and do not discount this excellent putter.
Casey - I can barely bring myself to assess his chances. Let's just say they are non-existent.
Immelman - I'm not sure Trevor really has his game right at the moment.
Selection: This one is simple for Curtis.

13:10 3 Ball - Karlsson - Wilson - Grace
Karlsson - I don't like his swing and it will be all over the place if the wind blows.
Wilson - Showed his usual early season form. Off the boil since but is very accurate off the tee.
Grace - The star of the early part of the European Tour. A fraction off that since but has a lot of ability.
Selection: Go with Wilson here to surprise his playing partners.

13:21 3 Ball - English - Dyson - Fernandez-Castano
English - PGA Tour rookie who is proving to be a big hit. This is something else entirely though.
Dyson - Threatening to really light it up. Can he get that putter charged up?
Fernandez-Castano - Has a better chance than at most events as his shoddy putting is not under as much pressure at a links course.
Selection: Nice 3 ball that I just favour Dyson to nick.

13:32 3 Ball - Cabrera - Choi - Fisher
Cabrera - Form is irrelevant for the big fella. You just don't know what he is going to do. But rest assured this will be a week that he is trying.
Choi - The odd flicker of form and he most certainly has the tools to go well at Royal Lytham.
Fisher - Back to form but I struggle to see him winning.
Selection: Choi is a top choice on his way to better things.

13:43 3 Ball - Byrd - Bae - Quiros
Byrd - A danger to all when he is on. Consistent and could do OK if he gets off to a decent start.
Bae - This young Korean has a lot of promise but might not enjoy where his erratic driving takes him.
Quiros - Has gone flat at just the wrong time. Trouble is that if he starts slowly then his head goes.
Selection: Byrd is by far the safest bet here.

13:59 3 Ball - Colsaerts - Mahan - Senden
Colsaerts - Has come of age this season and has the game to win a major.
Mahan - His stats tell you exactly why this guy wins so often. He does everything very well.
Senden - Great ball striker who struggles to win. Will be a little upset at his last few holes last week.
Selection: A trio of brilliant ball strikers but I just favour Colsaerts in the conditions.

14:10 3 Ball - Van Pelt - Francesco Molinari - Muto
Van Pelt - Has a powerful game that could be useful on this course. Should have beaten Tiger a few weeks back but will still take plenty of confidence.
Molinari - Nobody hits it better off the tee. Can't see how he won't be right up there.
Muto - Not a leading light on the Japan Tour but has landed himself in a fancy 3 ball.
Selection: Take Molinari to continue his excellent form.

14:21 3 Ball - McIlroy - Oosthuizen - Bradley
McIlroy - His season hasn't been as disastrous as some are making out but there is some concern over his performances in the big tournaments.
Oosthuizen - Knows how to win an Open and so close at this years Masters. One to be on this week.
Bradley - Not the prep he was looking for at the Irish Open but respected for his determination to succeed.
Selection: Oosthuizen is my tip for this.

14:32 3 Ball - Fowler - Harrington - Trappel
Fowler - Finally got a win under his belt and has one of the best long games on the PGA Tour.
Harrington - You just get the feeling this perfectionist has been preparing meticulously for this week. Has a big chance.
Trappel - Top European amateur who will love this experience.
Selection: It's a close call as I like both of the main protagonists - but I just favour Harrington.

14:43 3 Ball - Donald - Mickelson - Ogilvy
Donald - I would like to say the world number one will love it at Royal Lytham but I just don't think he will.
Mickelson - Suddenly kicked into gear in the second round of the Scottish Open. Game is back but this is a different test.
Ogilvy - Solid season but no better. Missing a spark. Can get hot with the putter mind.
Selection: Take a tentative move towards Mickelson.

14:54 3 Ball - Stricker - Taniguchi - Anders Hansen
Stricker - His valiant attempt for four in a row at the John Deere is not good prep for a big week mentally.
Taniguchi - One of the top Japanese players and don't discount too easily.
Hansen - Has been in terrific form. Don't even consider him in the final round but early in tournaments he is dangerous.
Selection: Hansen has this all set up for him.

15:05 3 Ball - Hanson - Goosen - Allenby
Hanson - Has the long game for an Open test and could contend if he gets off to a good start.
Goosen - A couple of cracking rounds in France recently show he has still got the goods.
Allenby - Still consistent but just at a lower level now.
Selection: Go with the Goose to get off to a flyer.

15:16 3 Ball - Furyk - Oda - Jacobson
Furyk - A late start for Furyk. Assuming he has gotten over his US Open failure he could be a feature.
Oda - Reasonable Japan Tour player - no more no less.
Jacobson - Freddie is not everyones cup of tea but I think he is great and always good to have on your side. Terrific putter on his day.
Selection: Jacobson will sneak this.

15:27 3 Ball - Leishman - Snedeker - Noren
Leishman - A final round 62 a few weeks ago secured an extremely unlikely PGA Tour victory. Good ball striker may now progress further.
Snedeker - Hits the ball real clean but I don't know about his prowess around a course like this.
Noren - Doing everything but winning. Such a good powerful player to watch but has he blown himself out?
Selection: Take a chance on Leishman.

15:38 3 Ball - Romero - Kruger - Ramsay
Romero - Disappointed with Romero last week and not to be trusted until showing signs he is back.
Kruger - Gets the most out of his game. Usually a good starter of tournaments.
Ramsay - Likes the course and is usually very very accurate. Could be a surprise package.
Selection: Ramsay gets the nod in the belief he will keep it on the short stuff.

15:49 3 Ball - Potter Jnr. - Keenan - Georgiou
Potter Jnr - Won a couple of weeks ago but that is as good as it gets for Ted.
Keenan - I like this guys attitude. If he sticks to his game plan he could do alright.
Georgiou - South African who impressed in qualifying but remains to be seen how he does in this environment.
Selection: Keenan to surprise.

16:00 3 Ball - Troy Kelly - Madsen - Lahiri
Kelly - Very close a couple of weeks ago and probably has better game to suit here than the victor.
Madsen - Up and coming star. A lot of eyes will be on this young Dane to see how he performs.
Lahiri - Decent enough player in Asia and may just go better than you might at first think.
Selection: Really tricky call but I just favour Kelly.

16:11 3 Ball - Marksaeng - Hicks - Hall
Marksaeng - He has been around a while and has seen enough not to be too intimidated by this test.
Hicks - Has shown flashes of form throughout his career but has plenty to prove.
Hall - Came through a tough qualifying test to be here. Will be trying hard to make it worthwhile.
Selection: Marksaeng will take this easily.

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Open Championship: Will Lytham spell an end to Lee's major hopes going West?

"So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there’s more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves."

Romilly Evans asks if Lee Westwood can finally get over the major line in the Open at Royal Lytham...

The philosopher Albert Camus always believed that anticipation was the purest form of pleasure. Better than the memory, better than the deed. In that, while the good things that actually happen to you often disappoint, those that never come to pass become engraved upon your heart with a bittersweet sadness.

Camus even argued that Sisyphus, Greek antiquity's poster boy for a bad day at the office, took satisfaction from his eternal punishment of pushing a boulder up a mountain, only for it to tumble back to the bottom as it reached the peak. The gods of Olympus had intended for Sisyphus to endure eternal frustration. Camus countered that there was joy to be found in this seemingly pointless struggle.

If Camus was right, Lee Westwood must be having the time of his life. After all, The Worksop Wonder has been rolling his boulder up the mountainside of major golf for longer than English golf fans care to remember. A total of 57 majors and counting to be exact. Every time he posts his name near the top of the Sunday leaderboard, down it falls. The near-misses have stacked up like planes approaching Heathrow, with eight top 10 finishes in the last 12 Majors. Westwood simply appears incapable of landing one safely.

Along the way, Westwood has become world number one, a prolific worldwide winner, multi-millionaire, contented family man, even an Officer of the Order of the British Empire. So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there's more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves.

Of course, the mountain of public expectation grows ever steeper with the passing years. Especially at Westy's home Open next week, where the crowds will flock to see if their man can finally end his hoodoo in an event no Englishman has won since Nick Faldo triumphed at Muirfield in 1992. However, Westwood's form ahead of the Open suggests they can dare to dream once more.

The 39-year-old has contended wherever he has roamed this season, notching five top-10 finishes in eight events on the PGA Tour and five top-10s in 10 European Tour starts, punctuated by a recent victory at the Nordea Masters. He also reclaimed his Indonesian Masters crown.

As for the all-important majors, it's been a perennial refrain: third at The Masters, then a tie for 10th at the US Open, which looked altogether more promising until he bizarrely lost a ball up a tree in the final round. Even Westwood admitted to suffering from a severe case of the here-we-go-agains.

But as the Open returns to Royal Lytham this year, there is perhaps more reason for him to fend off the mental demons. And not just because this classic Lancashire links doesn't have any trees. Rather, when the Open last visited this corner of Lancashire in 2001, another nearly man of peerless precision with his woods and irons walked off with the Claret Jug. David Duval was that player and the similarities between the two golfers are stark: forever gifted, forever thwarted. Maybe Westwood's time is finally at hand around a course which should reward his accuracy and ball-striking.

Fears over last week's injury scare at the French Open (where he slipped walking over to the first tee) have proven to be unfounded - "the leg is perfectly fine, my fitness guy said I could play again this week if I really wanted to." Which means the only missing link is his old caddie, Billy Foster, who sadly hasn't recovered from his own leg injury to be on the bag this week. That said, the affable Foster will still be at Lytham to cheer on his great friend and despite the mixed emotions, none will be pulling harder.

If Westwood does manage to shake the monkey off his back (and Betfair players make him second favourite at 18.017/1 to back), he may be left feeling as Duval did in the wake of his milestone win. "I just thought it would feel sweeter than this," Double D opined to his caddie soon afterwards.

So maybe Camus was right about the human condition. There can be no joy without the struggle. Still, after all the years of frustration, Westwood's legion of supporters won't mind one bit if they see their man home. The Englishman who went up a hill but came down a mountain a major champion.

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Championship Previews: Back Reading to cement promotion push

Championship / Andrew French / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Reading players celebrate following their crucial win over West Ham last weekend

"Reading have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham."

It's all about momentum at this stage of the season, and Reading have it says Andrew French as the Royals look to cement their promotion push by beating inconsistent Leeds.

Reading v Leeds, KO: Good Friday 14:00, live on Sky Sports 1, Match Odds: Reading [1.62], Leeds [6.4], The Draw [4.2]

Unless they suddenly hit a streak of good form, Leeds look destined for another season of Championship football: and a trip to Reading is the last thing you'd want when trying to kick-start a run to carry you into the play-offs. Neil Warnock has said himself he'd be surprised if his side go up this year, and given they have won only two of their last eight, you can see why.

Reading, meanwhile, have been imperious since the turn of the year. They have won 11 of their last 13 games including last week's 4-2 success at promotion rivals West Ham. The Royals have won their last six at home, and have generally taken control of recent games at the Madejski early on: in each of their last five home games they have been in front at the break and gone on to win. Against a side with such fragile confidence as Leeds, they can do the same again here.

Back Reading HT/Reading FT @ [2.6]

Nottingham Forest v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 17:20, live on Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.83], Bristol City [5.0], The Draw [3.8]

It's probably taken longer than he would have liked, but Steve Cotterill appears to have guided Nottingham Forest to safety. They were next to bottom as recently as mid-February but a run of only two defeats in 10 has lifted them up to 19th and six points clear of the drop zone.

Bristol City are heading in the opposite direction amid a sequence of just one win in 13 games - they were 19th at the end of January, and now they are 22nd. They have gone seven without an away win, during which time they have scored just one goal. A win here would just about end Forest's lingering concerns, and with the current gulf in form, home advantage should be telling.

Back Nottm Forest @ [1.83]

Watford v Blackpool, KO: Good Friday 15:00, Match Odds: Watford [2.66], Blackpool [2.84], The Draw [3.5]

Being a Watford fan, I have to confess I expected to be sweating about relegation around now. So, the achievements of Sean Dyche and his squad have been a hugely pleasant surprise: I certainly could never have foreseen them having a chance of reaching the play-offs. Yet the Hornets are the in-form side at the moment, unbeaten in seven and with three successive wins to their credit.

On-loan Manchester United keeper Tomasz Kuszczak has clearly made a difference with three clean sheets in his last four outings: Watford had only managed seven shut-outs in 33 games before he arrived.

I can see the Hornets improving their recent run of four wins in six at home against a Blackpool side that has been inconsistent despite their high current placing in the league table. Ian Holloway's side claimed a fine win over leaders Southampton last weekend, but it was only their second success in seven attempts. They have lost their last three away games and conceded eight goals in the process.

Back Watford @ [2.66]

West Ham will have to arrest a run of five successive home draws if they are to climb above Reading into the automatic promotion places......

There's a huge game at the top of the table when West Ham host Reading, but Andrew French also previews Coventry and Portsmouth's games as they attempt to avoid relegation....

After five home draws in a row and seven draws from their last 10 games it's been a frustrating time for West Ham, but Andrew French believes they are an excellent price to beat out-of-form Peterborough in midweek....

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WGC Cadillac Championship: Should you follow the third-round leader at Doral?

General / Romilly Evans / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

It happens to the very best. Even Tiger Woods didn't manage to close out the touranment in Abu Dhabi

"Just ask the game’s greatest closer, Tiger Woods. He owns an astonishing 48-4 strike rate when holding the 54-hole lead on Tour, but still meekly succumbed to the steady Robert Rock in Abu Dhabi."

Romilly Evans muses over the apparent difficulty in closing out golf events from the final-round lead.

Being the leader going into the final round of a golf tournament is a funny thing: it's an unnerving position to be in, but everyone wants to be in it. Now, as life's great paradoxes go, it may not be up there with that universal conundrum: how can something come out of nothing? But in the limited confines of professional golf, it does appear to be a universal truth.

Take this fledgling PGA Tour season, where of the nine strokeplay events contested only three have gone to the third-round leader. And in a few instances, these 54-hole pacemakers have squandered huge leads over the closing 18. Firstly, Kyle Stanley blew his top and a five-stroke lead at Torrey Pines. Then Spencer Levin trumped him the following week in Phoenix, imploding from six shots clear - and ironically gifting the trophy to Stanley himself.

As you would expect, both players traded long odds-on on the exchanges for prolonged periods (both before and during the fourth round) but came up short in the final analysis. Their own analysis of their respective capitulations was also very similar. Both complained of a feeling of an uneasiness pervading their game. "I wanted to protect rather than attack," admitted Stanley. "Weird thoughts consumed my mind, I got negative" confessed a spooked Levin.

Of course, this is completely understandable, especially since both men were seeking their maiden wins at the time. Other players chasing that elusive first victory to have fallen at the last include Charlie Wi, Matt Every, Daniel Summerhays. But to deduce that last-round fragility is the hallmark of the uninitiated would be a mistake. After all, 40-time winner Phil Mickelson, USPGA champ Keegan Bradley and veteran victor Jeff Maggert have each suffered a similar fate in 2012. So this phenomenon is clearly no respecter of experience.

Just ask the game's greatest closer, Tiger Woods. He owns an astonishing 48-4 strike rate when holding the 54-hole lead on Tour, but still meekly succumbed to the steady Robert Rock in Abu Dhabi. "Look, it's hard to win," was Tiger's concise conclusion. "Everyone's chasing you. You're in a position where if you do make a few mistakes, it's alright because you have shots to play with... But it also depends on how many guys are chasing. If you've got a whole wolf pack behind you or one or two guys, it's a totally different deal. Personally, I've always been excited about being in that position. I know I've played well to get there, so just trying to do the same things I did to get there and hopefully it will be enough."

And perhaps the last comment is what marks Woods out a messiah for the mainstream of pros - certainly when it comes to attitudinal advice. He never mistakes a chance to win for a chance to lose. That chance should seldom be so great as when a player is leading in the final round. However, the stats don't bear this out. Even a look at a broader sample from last year tells us that third-round leaders convert their opportunity less than 50 percent of the time (22 times in 43 events).

Psychology is crucial in all sports. But golf, with its myriad mechanics and time to ponder rather than play, is particularly cerebral - leaving any wager hostage to the stability of a player's mind. In short, better to be the hunter than the hunted. And as Tiger says, there's often a pack of hounds trying to outfox the leader down the stretch. These hunters run free on the thrill of the chase, while the hunted can get paralysed by fear.

How to spot any such susceptibility is the challenge for the punter. Factors invariably concern the individual leading, the individual(s) pursuing, the individual course, even the individual weather conditions. But finding a gold-standard solution from those imponderables is an equation beyond my mediocre maths.

One thing we can say for certain is that no third-round lead is secure and the Betfair layers are currently out to get the 54-hole leaders - especially when people have typically backed these players at far bigger odds earlier in the event on Betfair and want to lock in a profit. Last week's Honda Classic (finally living up to its name) provided an eloquent case in point. Pre-tournament favourite, Rory McIlroy, was two stokes clear after Saturday but there was still plenty of liquidity available at [1.64] to back him to collect the title. Not a bad price for the World No.1 elect, who duly hung on in determined fashion from a charging Tiger.

Yet this was a rare textbook example of a final round where a proven front-runner got the job done. One swallow does not make a summer. And this weekend's Cadillac Championship at Doral will doubtless see layers of the 54-hole leader again out in force. Watery graves lie in wait around every turn of the infamous "Blue Monster", not to mention on one of the toughest closing holes in golf. Those of a nervous disposition may be well looking to "green out" on the pacesetter if they have the chance, and that could offer some inflated prices for those with the temerity to back the leading candidate.

Still, whether you decide to drink from the poisoned chalice or not, the riddle of the third-round leader seems sure to confound us for years to come. Or perhaps I'm just making something out of nothing.

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

Rory McIlroy's talent has never been in doubt but the Irishman shouldn't take success for granted, says Ralph Ellis ahead of this weekend's Honda Classic....

Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas and Nick Watney were three of Paul Krishnamurty's four golfers to watch last year - so who's he gone for this time round?...

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Timeform Radio Podcast: Cheltenham Festival Championship Chasers

Cheltenham / Timeform / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Long Run and Kauto Star.

Timeform Radio previews the Championship races over fences at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival...

Host Alan Dudman is joined by Timeform's Simon Walker with the Queen Mother Champion Chase, the Ryanair and the Gold Cup all coming under scrutiny.

Trainers Henry de Bromhead, Henrietta Knight, Nicky Henderson, Donald McCain and Paul Nicholls' assistant Dan Skelton also feature, as they finalise their Festival plans.

Click HERE to listen to the podcast now.

...........
Timeform TV Focus made 138 points profit (at Betfair SP) in year one. Get the expert view on the big races at Cheltenham with TV Focus. Find Out More!

Timeform Radio previews the novice chase races at the Cheltenham Festival......

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch turns his attention to day two of the Cheltenham Festival......

Timeform Radio have another podcast for you, with next week's Champion and World Hurdles under the microscope......

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WGC Cadillac Championship: Punter plays the wind exponents

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel – Brings course and current form to this week’s event

“Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that’s the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years.”

With breezy weather forecast for the second WGC event of the year, our man plumps for an octet of wind specialists at tasty prices, and he also has a plan for day one. Read his preview here...

Tournament
The qualifying criteria for the WGC Cadillac Championship are extensive, verging on exhausting, but for those that want to know, the field includes the following. The top 50 in the official world rankings, the top 20 from last year's Race to Dubai standings and the top 30 from last year's FedEx Cup standings, as well as the top 10 from this year's Race to Dubai and FedEx Cup standing, and the top two players from the2011 Japanese, South African, Australasian and Asian Order of Merits. And that's it; nobody else gets a look in.

Venue
TPC Blue Monster at Doral, Doral, Florida

Course Details
Par 72, 7334 yards, stroke average in 2011 - 71.48

Doral was nicknamed the Blue Monster because water's in play on half the holes and it used to play really tough. It's now officially called the Blue Monster which is somewhat ironic because if the wind doesn't blow it's far from monstrous, and the scoring average comes down year after year with the advancement of technology. The average between 1962 (when it opened) and 1965 was 74.74. Last year it averaged just 71.48. The first hole (par five) is the easiest and the 18th (par four) the hardest. The greens are slightly above average in size at 6,500 feet and there are 108 bunkers on the course. Like last week's venue, the entire track is Bermuda.

Useful Sites
Course details
Weather
Venue Site

TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday and 5.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Nick Watney -16
2010 - Ernie Els -18
2009 - Phil Mickelson -19
2008 - Geoff Ogilvy -17
2007 - Tiger Woods -10

Typical Winner
Length off the tee is definitely a plus this week and the par fives are likely to be key. The last two winners both played the par fives in double-figures under par. A fast start appears essential too. Tiger Woods was just four shots off the lead after day one in 2007 but that's the furthest any winner has been after day one in the last seven years. An ability to play well in windy conditions is often important and judging by the early forecasts, that will again be the case this year.

Market leaders
Mike Norman covers the first four in the betting here and he advocates dutching them at around [2.6]. Given the form of Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Lee Westwood on Sunday, and the state of Phil Mickelson's game before he went on holiday, he could well be right but at the prices available, I'm going to look elsewhere. It's asking a lot for Rory to go in again, the jury's currently out re Woods' temperament in the mix, Westwood can't putt for toffee and Lefty won't be too keen to see the wind up.

Selections
The forecast has already changed slightly since I first started looking on Sunday and it could scupper my plans if it changes much further. It suggested very strong winds but now it gives merely breezy conditions. It's always a dangerous game to base your picks on a weather forecast but I haven't gone mad by any means. My plan is to get involved properly towards the end of, and at the end of, day one (see above re winners up with the early pace), but I've still picked out a few to get me started.

Charl Schwartzel pushed Ernie Els all the way here two years ago, played very well last week, can handle the wind, and looked over-priced at [36.0]. I didn't get as much on as I'd have liked at that price but I'm taking it easy from the off anyway.

Rory McIlroy wasn't the only youngster playing well last weekend. Rickie Fowler was scything through the field in the blustery weather. The wind can't blow hard enough for Rickie and if it does get really tough, he's the man to be on.

At a triple-figure price I'm giving Kyle Stanley a chance on his event debut. He has the length and par five performance required to prosper and he can play Bermuda and handle the wind. He hasn't a brilliant record in Florida and he missed the cut last week but when he challenged so strongly at the Farmers Insurance Open he'd missed the cut the week before.

After that it's a bunch of quality wind exponents at barmy prices, so come on wind, get blowing!

WGC Cadillac Championship Selections:
Charl Schwartzel @ an average of [34.0]
Rickie Fowler @ [55.0]
Kyle Stanley @ [100.0]
Louis Oosthuizen @ [160.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [210.0]
Paul Casey @ [250.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [450.0]
Greg Chalmers @ [450.0]

I'll be back later with a preview of the weeks other event, the Puerto Rico Open.

The Tiger roars again but he still can't eclipse McIlroy, as the youngster wins the Honda Classic in style to top the world rankings......

With storms threatening, play has been brought forward in Florida, with the leaders teeing off at 3.30pm. Can odds on Rory take the title and the world number one spot? The Punter gives his verdict here......

There's just one event to concentrate on this week but it's a cracker. Read Steve's thoughts on the Honda Classic here......

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Championship Previews: Likely Forest win to glean some hope

Championship / Andrew French / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Steve Cotterill shouts instructions to his misfiring Nottm Forest side

"Nottingham Forest are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry – if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety."

It's been a dreadful season so far for Nottingham Forest, but they simply must beat Coventry this weekend if they are to keep their survival chances alive says Andrew French.

Peterborough v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Peterborough [2.32], Bristol City [3.2], The Draw [3.5]

Is it too early to start throwing in the phrase 'six pointer'? Probably not. Especially when you consider that there is only a third of the season to go and both these sides are lingering uncomfortably close to the drop zone.

Bristol City were bottom, rose to 19th, but a run of one win in six has put the skids under them again. They have failed to keep a clean in any of those six, and that will surely be a worry visiting London Road, where goals fly in at an alarming rate. Posh average two a game at home - a rate only bettered by four teams in the division - yet they let them in nearly as fast and have the worst home defensive record in the Championship.

You could look at this fixture and say 'cagey', but I don't think Peterborough know how to do 'cagey'. Ten of their home games have delivered 2.5 goals or more, while nine of City's away games have done the same. Bearing in mind City are struggling to keep the ball out of the net, and both sides badly need something from this game, I think the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]

Barnsley v Portsmouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Barnsley [2.46], Portsmouth [3.2], The Draw [3.4]

In the list of people who are not too to sad to see Scottish giants Rangers going into administration, Portsmouth fans are probably second only to Celtic fans. It's not that Pompey have any malice towards the Ibrox club - but it must be nice not to be the main story when it comes to parlous club finances. The south coast club are once again at death's door, and though they showed plenty of spirit in drawing at Blackpool last week, the midweek home defeat to Ipswich suggested their resolve is now fully stretched. As it is, they are bad enough on the road: just two wins in 16 outings.

Barnsley have lost their last two but they were both away from home: they beat Leicester in their last game at Oakwell. The Tykes have only failed to score once at home this term (against Southampton) and if they can maintain that sequence it will probably be good enough to take the points.

Back Barnsley @ [2.46]

Nottingham Forest v Coventry, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.92], Coventry [4.2], The Draw [3.8]

If Forest don't win this one, it'll simply not be justified to cite 'they are too big to go down' as a defence against the possibility of the former European Champions dropping into the third tier of English football. With just one win - but 10 defeats - in their last 13 league games, Forest are serious relegation contenders. Their problems in scoring goals are well documented - but there have been some glimmers of hope lately. They finally found the net at home last weekend and missed a string of chances to win in the 1-1 draw with Watford, before giving 10-man Middlesbrough a scare in midweek. However, they are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry - if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety.

The Sky Blues' away results must offer the hosts plenty of hope: they have lost their last eight on the trot on their travels, and overall have drawn just three and lost the other 12. Significantly they have not managed a clean sheet in any away game, and even a team that has struggled to find the net like Forest must do so in this one. Given that Coventry have failed to score in more than half their away games, one goal might be enough.

Back Nottm Forest @ [1.92]

A full midweek programme of Championship action has had Andrew French scouring for the best bets of the night, and he believes Brighton to beat Millwall is exactly that....

Home games at Barnsley and Ipswich have produced plenty of goals in recent months, and Andrew French believes that trend will continue when Birmingham and Middlesbrough visit this weekend....

Birmingham have won six consecutive games in all competitions says Andrew French and he believes they have an excellent chance of beating promotion-chasing Southampton....

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