X Factor: Frightful Night likely for Stereo Kicks

Star of the show last week was Fleur East, and if I wasn’t already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.

Two winning tips in a row sees him in his customary profitable position. In Halloween-themed Fright-Night Week, Jack Houghton thinks Stereo Kicks are vulnerable, and that Fleur East will continue to impress...

What Happened Last Week?

Novelty acts aside, Jake Quickenden gave perhaps the worst performance in X-Factor history, with a key change that had dogs around the country searching for the mute button. Only The Young were their usual disunited self. As written about before, there is statistical backing to suggest that opening the show puts acts at a significant disadvantage, and so neither Quickenden nor Only The Young gave themselves any chance of automatic survival.

It was a fairly dismal week all round really. For all that Cowell might have plans for previously-signed Jay James, his voice is thin and whiny, and both his look and sound is uncomfortably over-produced; the big-Italian-bear Andrea Faustini continued to be as one-dimensional as a straight line; Lola Saunders was hideously nasal and out-of-tune; Paul Akister's lack of self-confidence is becoming wearisome; Jack Walton's version of Eye of the Tiger was bizarre, and he was likely only saved because of a late billing; Stevie Ritchie was what he is; and Stereo Kicks are unique among boy bands in that only 12 ½% of them can actually sing.

Even Lauren Platt and Ben Haenow were pedestrian, with Platt's I'm-going-to-sing-this-one-straight coming over as boredom, and Haenow worryingly showing moments of weakness on the big notes. I still think Platt is a certain finalist and am still hopeful about Haenow's chances, but I can see why his odds have drifted out to 12.5n/a in the Winner Market.

Star of the show last week, though, was Fleur East, and if I wasn't already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.

What Will Happen This Week?

Never ones to search for originality, the producers have made this week a Halloween-themed Fright-Night special, and have also announced that two acts will be eliminated: the one with the fewest votes at the end of Saturday's live show; along with another contestant as normal after a sing-off on the Sunday. Don't rely totally on this announcement, though - as previously warned, the show format can change rapidly and scupper bets made in good faith.

One certainty, however, is that Dermot O'Leary will open the show by saying, "As if Fright-Night wasn't scary enough for our contestants, our very own warlock overlord Simon Cowell has announced that two acts will be eliminated this weekend, with one act leaving us at the end of tonight's show." Seriously, if anyone offers you odds, fill your boots.

Who's For The Chop?

Jack Walton has to be vulnerable at 2.68/5, but if he can knock out an inoffensive acoustic version of Bleeding Love, he might yet survive another week. Many will fancy Only The Young to go at 4.57/2, but they might do okay with a comedic version of Monster Mash and can survive until at least Sunday.

I still think that current show favourite Andrea Faustini is susceptible to a surprise early elimination, but perhaps not quite yet.

All of which leaves me with Lola Saunders and Stereo Kicks as the most likely to go on Saturday. And at an enormous 26.025/1 in the Sixth Elimination Market, it's an easy choice to plump for a small bet on the eight-piece boy-band, especially as they are due to be singing a Backstreet Boys' song, which can only end in disaster.

Recommended Bets:
1-point back Stereo Kicks at 26.025/1 in Sixth Elimination Market.

Profit/Loss on Settled Bets = +2.4pts

Previously Recommended:
1-point back Fleur East at 40.039/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Ben Haenow at 8.07/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Lauren Platt at 7.26/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
1-point back Steph Nala at 3.412/5 in Third Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Only The Young at 12.5n/a in Third Elimination Market - LOST
1-point back Jake Quickenden at 3.02/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Lola Saunders at 20.019/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - LOST

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WTA Indian Wells Betting: Kerber and Stosur likely to go the distance...

'Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight'

It's the last two Women's Quarter finals tonight; Kerber versus Stosur in what should be a tight affair and that's followed by two former champions facing off as Azarenka takes on Wozniacki.

First up we have German Angelique Kerber against Australian Sam Stosur. Kerber came into this tournament on the back of two first round losses in a row. This minor drop in form can however be put down to a back strain which came to light at the Australian Open when she was put to the sword by Ekatarina Makarova. To anybody who saw that match it was clear she was not fit but she appears to have got over this now, her three victories at Indian Wells so far show she's back to the level we all expect of her.

Stosur and Kerber have met twice before with Stosur winning each time. To Kerber's credit both matches have been competitive, and I see no reason why it won't be the same tonight. Kerber is an exciting player who is not afraid to go for her shots; she has a wicked forehand and is able to chase down a lot of balls. 

Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight. It's certainly worth a look at the Total Games Market for this one in what should be a highly entertaining match.

In the last Quarter Final match we see two players that have tasted success at Indian Wells before. It was exactly two years ago that Victoria Azarenka slumped to her fifth defeat in seven meetings with Caroline Wozniacki as the then world number one went on to take the Indian Wells title that year. 

How the tables have turned since then! Now, Azarenka has two Grand Slam titles under her belt and is arguably the most consistent player on the Tour. She boasts a perfect 17 match winning record this year and very much justifies her pre-match price of 1.261/4. 

Wozniacki on the other hand, troubled by a difficult relationship with her on-off coach and father Piotr, and burdened with the task of keeping a lid on media intrusion has seen her ranking slump outside the Top 10 for the first time in five years.

All that being said, it is Wozniacki who I like tonight. She made short work of Petrova in the previous round and in-form Russian Vesnina in the round before. Noted for her defence, Wozniacki has always possessed an uncanny ability to minimise mistakes. She hardly every serves a double-fault (something Azarenka cannot boast) and seldom hits the net. Moreover with Azarenka hampered by a troublesome ankle injury, this is a perfect opportunity for Wozniacki to re-start her 2013 campaign and redeem herself after an embarrassing loss to little known Qiang Wang two weeks ago.

Wozniacki was the darling of the WTA Tour and was world Number One long before Azarenka had even thought about winning a Grand Slam. She possesses too much ability for this to be an easy match for Azarenka and I think the +5.5 Games for Wozniacki tonight is the way to go.

Recommend Bets:
Back Caroline Wozniacki +5.5 Games vs Victoria Azarenka @ 1.768/11
Back Over 21.5 Games in Angelique Kerber vs Sam Stosur @ 1.814/5

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Chelsea-Mourinho reunion isn't as likely as Blues fans may hope

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jose Mourinho will have lots of offers if he ends up out of work this summer

"It would arguably be just as sweet to win the Champions League with another Premier League side and show Roman Abramovich what he missed out on."

Michael Lintorn isn't buying into the idea that Jose Mourinho will be back at Chelsea by August, even after they sacked Andre Villas-Boas on Sunday...

Roberto Di Matteo has rather surprisingly been put in charge of Chelsea until the end of the season, but in a job which coaches with trophy-littered CVs struggle to hold for a year, the chances of him surviving the summer seem slim.

The media campaign engineered by those who wanted rid of Andre Villas-Boas - axed with apparent reluctance on Sunday - is already underway. The Sun quote a club source as saying: "If anything, they like Roberto even less. He's just too cock-sure." A characteristic unbecoming of a Chelsea chief, don't you think Jose!

Betfair aren't offering a next boss market at present because Di Matteo has been confirmed for the campaign, and will try to salvage things by delivering a top-four finish [[2.8]], FA Cup glory [[5.5]] - something their last caretaker achieved - and Champions League progress past Napoli [[3.25]].

However, given the lack of belief that Di Matteo, who was sacked six months into his only previous Premier League season as a manager by Villas-Boas' conquerors West Brom, will earn a long-term deal, the discussion as to who will succeed him is well underway.

Pep Guardiola, Rafael Benitez and Fabio Capello have all been mentioned, but if either of the latter two were serious contenders, surely they would have been hired immediately. The man most Blues supporters long for though is Jose Mourinho.

Everyone suspects that he will leave Real Madrid this summer - which is nowhere near as much of a certainty as is implied - and as he is never shy about his fondness for England, there is optimism about him returning to Stamford Bridge.

Mourinho says that he loves Chelsea, but is that enough of an incentive to return? His tendency is to go to a club, make them great then walk shortly afterwards. The lengthy pursuit of the Champions League meant that they were the one team that he didn't enjoy that happy ending with, yet is lifting that trophy there a substantial enough prize to risk failing to scale the heights of his first spell?

Yes, he is confident enough to back his own ability, though it would arguably be just as sweet to win the Champions League with another Premier League side and show Roman Abramovich what he missed out on.

The Abramovich factor is a major obstacle. Relations between the pair are said to have improved, however it is far from certain that the Russian will allow him the freedom of the transfer market that he desires, and Mourinho may resent handing the owner who dismissed him a second chance.

And then there's the ageing stars, who idolise Mourinho, yet are nearing retirement. He has never won the Champions League in his first season at a club, so would likely require at least two again, and it is a long shot that Frank Lampard and co will be performing to the necessary level in 2014.

Would he really be willing to rip apart the team that he built and cast aside players that he considers friends? This writer isn't convinced...

Eight managers in eight years since Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea tells its own story. Ralph Ellis looks at the situation at Chelsea and other examples of Chairmen getting involved in first team affairs....

Away victories for Manchester United and Arsenal and a costly loss for Chelsea on the road delivered handsome correct score prizes on Betfair this weekend......

Manchester United stretch their unbeaten run over Tottenham with a 3-1 win at White Hart Lane. Meanwhile, Stephane Sessegnon and Lee Cattermole see red and seven others receive yellows in an extremely bad-tempered Newcastle-Sunderland derby, while Fulham hit five past...

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Championship Previews: Likely Forest win to glean some hope

Championship / Andrew French / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Steve Cotterill shouts instructions to his misfiring Nottm Forest side

"Nottingham Forest are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry – if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety."

It's been a dreadful season so far for Nottingham Forest, but they simply must beat Coventry this weekend if they are to keep their survival chances alive says Andrew French.

Peterborough v Bristol City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Peterborough [2.32], Bristol City [3.2], The Draw [3.5]

Is it too early to start throwing in the phrase 'six pointer'? Probably not. Especially when you consider that there is only a third of the season to go and both these sides are lingering uncomfortably close to the drop zone.

Bristol City were bottom, rose to 19th, but a run of one win in six has put the skids under them again. They have failed to keep a clean in any of those six, and that will surely be a worry visiting London Road, where goals fly in at an alarming rate. Posh average two a game at home - a rate only bettered by four teams in the division - yet they let them in nearly as fast and have the worst home defensive record in the Championship.

You could look at this fixture and say 'cagey', but I don't think Peterborough know how to do 'cagey'. Ten of their home games have delivered 2.5 goals or more, while nine of City's away games have done the same. Bearing in mind City are struggling to keep the ball out of the net, and both sides badly need something from this game, I think the Over 2.5 Goals price looks generous.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]

Barnsley v Portsmouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Barnsley [2.46], Portsmouth [3.2], The Draw [3.4]

In the list of people who are not too to sad to see Scottish giants Rangers going into administration, Portsmouth fans are probably second only to Celtic fans. It's not that Pompey have any malice towards the Ibrox club - but it must be nice not to be the main story when it comes to parlous club finances. The south coast club are once again at death's door, and though they showed plenty of spirit in drawing at Blackpool last week, the midweek home defeat to Ipswich suggested their resolve is now fully stretched. As it is, they are bad enough on the road: just two wins in 16 outings.

Barnsley have lost their last two but they were both away from home: they beat Leicester in their last game at Oakwell. The Tykes have only failed to score once at home this term (against Southampton) and if they can maintain that sequence it will probably be good enough to take the points.

Back Barnsley @ [2.46]

Nottingham Forest v Coventry, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Nottm Forest [1.92], Coventry [4.2], The Draw [3.8]

If Forest don't win this one, it'll simply not be justified to cite 'they are too big to go down' as a defence against the possibility of the former European Champions dropping into the third tier of English football. With just one win - but 10 defeats - in their last 13 league games, Forest are serious relegation contenders. Their problems in scoring goals are well documented - but there have been some glimmers of hope lately. They finally found the net at home last weekend and missed a string of chances to win in the 1-1 draw with Watford, before giving 10-man Middlesbrough a scare in midweek. However, they are right in the mire and simply have to beat Coventry - if they do, they will move above them and could be as close as three points to safety.

The Sky Blues' away results must offer the hosts plenty of hope: they have lost their last eight on the trot on their travels, and overall have drawn just three and lost the other 12. Significantly they have not managed a clean sheet in any away game, and even a team that has struggled to find the net like Forest must do so in this one. Given that Coventry have failed to score in more than half their away games, one goal might be enough.

Back Nottm Forest @ [1.92]

A full midweek programme of Championship action has had Andrew French scouring for the best bets of the night, and he believes Brighton to beat Millwall is exactly that....

Home games at Barnsley and Ipswich have produced plenty of goals in recent months, and Andrew French believes that trend will continue when Birmingham and Middlesbrough visit this weekend....

Birmingham have won six consecutive games in all competitions says Andrew French and he believes they have an excellent chance of beating promotion-chasing Southampton....

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Danedream: Arc winner likely for German return

News / Timeform / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danedream could return in May.

"Everything is fine and she's keeping well..."

Prix de 'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream is likely to start off her season with a run at home in late spring before trainer Peter Schiergen plots serious European targets...

From humble beginnings, Danedream became the first German-trained winner of France's biggest race since 1975 when shattering the Longchamp track record.

She was unable to maintain the form in the Japan Cup but despite her value as a broodmare with three Group Ones in the bag, the daughter of Lomitas remains in training with Schiergen for her four-year-old career.

Danedream, rated 132 by Timeform, is only in light work at her Cologne stable, but Schiergen said: "Everything is fine and she's keeping well. She is just doing small exercises at the moment.

"I haven't decided quite yet where she will run, but she might start in Germany around the end of May and then she will have a lot of entries in Group races and we can think about France and England."

Schiergen said an entry at Royal Ascot would be among many events under consideration.

Voler La Vedette is to head for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham without another racecourse appearance....

Sponsors Betfair have made entry to Newbury's rescheduled meeting on Friday free to all racegoers......

French-bred Quel Esprit gave Willie Mullins his eighth Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup success when making all under Ruby Walsh in the Leopardstown showpiece on Sunday....

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Follow The Money: Hammer time? Not likely

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 25 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow the team's Wednesday bets?

"On debut, Holy Roman Warrior looks to have a smart pedigree and it should be noted that his sire Holy Roman Emperor won his first race."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at Ayr and Sedgefield.

In the 14:10 at Ayr, Holy Roman Warrior has been the subject of some support being backed from [7.4] into [4.3]. This young colt looks to have a smart pedigree and it should be noted that, although today is his first race, his sire Holy Roman Emperor won on debut. Richard Fahey likes to get his two-year-olds out and winning early in the season and has already entered this horse into a couple of decent races later on this year. Champion jockey Paul Hanagan rides today and the 24% strike rate when teaming up with Fahey at this course could be another reason that the money is coming in.

At Sedgefield, Drop The Hammer is a negative in the 15:25, drifting out from [2.86] to [3.45]. A three time winner on the flat, this horse didn't really excel when switched to novice hurdling. Today is her handicap debut and with a decent jockey booking and the visor fitted again maybe she could perform better. Her wins on the flat ranged from 1m6f to 2m so maybe a more testing trip would suit over obstacles, perhaps others have latched on to that fact and decided that laying this horse is the best option today.

Back to Ayr for our final selection of the day and, in the 15:50, there's been support for the William Haggas trained Divine Call, backed from [2.88] into [2.12]. This bay gelding will be suited by today's soft conditions after winning his maiden on fibresand. The 359 mile trip from Newmarket surely wouldn't have been made if they didn't fancy the horse to go close and with Kieren Fallon aboard everything points to a big run.

Recommended Bets
Back Holy Roman Warrior @ [4.3] 14:10
Lay Drop the Hammer @ [3.45] 15:25
Back Divine Call @ [2.12] 15:50

Today's Follow The Money comes from Chepstow and Lingfield....

All three of today's FTM selections come from the meeting at Carlisle....

This afternoon's Follow The Money movers come from Fakenham and Curragh......

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