X Factor: Frightful Night likely for Stereo Kicks

Star of the show last week was Fleur East, and if I wasn’t already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.

Two winning tips in a row sees him in his customary profitable position. In Halloween-themed Fright-Night Week, Jack Houghton thinks Stereo Kicks are vulnerable, and that Fleur East will continue to impress...

What Happened Last Week?

Novelty acts aside, Jake Quickenden gave perhaps the worst performance in X-Factor history, with a key change that had dogs around the country searching for the mute button. Only The Young were their usual disunited self. As written about before, there is statistical backing to suggest that opening the show puts acts at a significant disadvantage, and so neither Quickenden nor Only The Young gave themselves any chance of automatic survival.

It was a fairly dismal week all round really. For all that Cowell might have plans for previously-signed Jay James, his voice is thin and whiny, and both his look and sound is uncomfortably over-produced; the big-Italian-bear Andrea Faustini continued to be as one-dimensional as a straight line; Lola Saunders was hideously nasal and out-of-tune; Paul Akister's lack of self-confidence is becoming wearisome; Jack Walton's version of Eye of the Tiger was bizarre, and he was likely only saved because of a late billing; Stevie Ritchie was what he is; and Stereo Kicks are unique among boy bands in that only 12 ½% of them can actually sing.

Even Lauren Platt and Ben Haenow were pedestrian, with Platt's I'm-going-to-sing-this-one-straight coming over as boredom, and Haenow worryingly showing moments of weakness on the big notes. I still think Platt is a certain finalist and am still hopeful about Haenow's chances, but I can see why his odds have drifted out to 12.5n/a in the Winner Market.

Star of the show last week, though, was Fleur East, and if I wasn't already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.

What Will Happen This Week?

Never ones to search for originality, the producers have made this week a Halloween-themed Fright-Night special, and have also announced that two acts will be eliminated: the one with the fewest votes at the end of Saturday's live show; along with another contestant as normal after a sing-off on the Sunday. Don't rely totally on this announcement, though - as previously warned, the show format can change rapidly and scupper bets made in good faith.

One certainty, however, is that Dermot O'Leary will open the show by saying, "As if Fright-Night wasn't scary enough for our contestants, our very own warlock overlord Simon Cowell has announced that two acts will be eliminated this weekend, with one act leaving us at the end of tonight's show." Seriously, if anyone offers you odds, fill your boots.

Who's For The Chop?

Jack Walton has to be vulnerable at 2.68/5, but if he can knock out an inoffensive acoustic version of Bleeding Love, he might yet survive another week. Many will fancy Only The Young to go at 4.57/2, but they might do okay with a comedic version of Monster Mash and can survive until at least Sunday.

I still think that current show favourite Andrea Faustini is susceptible to a surprise early elimination, but perhaps not quite yet.

All of which leaves me with Lola Saunders and Stereo Kicks as the most likely to go on Saturday. And at an enormous 26.025/1 in the Sixth Elimination Market, it's an easy choice to plump for a small bet on the eight-piece boy-band, especially as they are due to be singing a Backstreet Boys' song, which can only end in disaster.

Recommended Bets:
1-point back Stereo Kicks at 26.025/1 in Sixth Elimination Market.

Profit/Loss on Settled Bets = +2.4pts

Previously Recommended:
1-point back Fleur East at 40.039/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Ben Haenow at 8.07/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Lauren Platt at 7.26/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
1-point back Steph Nala at 3.412/5 in Third Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Only The Young at 12.5n/a in Third Elimination Market - LOST
1-point back Jake Quickenden at 3.02/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Lola Saunders at 20.019/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - LOST

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The X Factor Result: Huge shock as 129/1 Ella is eliminated

"Joke Factor because the show has become exactly that, an absolute joke. The fact that 16-year-old Henderson is no longer in the competition is a disgrace."

Mike Norman brings us the latest X Factor elimination result, and for good reason, he's not a happy chap...

Perhaps we can replace the X for shock, or even as some would argue, joke, because tonight's elimination became a case of both.

Shock Factor because two of the competition's best ever performers - Ella Henderson and James Arthur - were voted by the British public into the bottom two whilst dreadful act Rylan Clark, and cruise ship singer Christopher Maloney, survived.

Joke Factor because the show has become exactly that, an absolute joke. The fact that 16-year-old Henderson is no longer in the competition is a disgrace. But who is to blame?

It's certainly not Clark or Maloney's fault, and although ultimately it was the public who voted Henderson and Arthur into the bottom two, is it really the public's fault also? No!

The people to blame are those who decided to keep this competition reliant on a public vote. For crying out load our public voted Michelle McManus, Steve Brookstein, Leon Jackson, and Matt Cardle as winners in various singing competitions.

Our British public even voted Chico, Darius Danesh, Jedward, and Wagner beyond the one week their singing talents should have allowed. Put simply, most of us haven't got a clue.

But tonight was the last straw. It was the night that the X Factor producers must now realise that the only way forward for such competitions is to have a professional panel decide the outcome. Scrap public voting all together... we get enough stupidity during Eurovision, we don't need it on X Factor too.

For the record Ella Henderosn was matched at a huge 130.0129/1 in the Seventh Elimination market but I think I've said all I have to say. I'll let Eliot Pollak update the odds later in the week.

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Follow The Money: Longer trip and Fallon factor to benefit Romanoff

"With Kieren Fallon booked and the longer trip may be just the tonic to bring about the required improvement."

Today's FTM movers come from the meetings at Epsom and Ripon...

Starting at Ripon in the 14:00 selling stakes over 1m 2f, Future Wonder has drifted out to 3.55/2 from 2.727/4. The three-year-old filly ran badly last time out, only managing a disappointing fourth from five runners when starting as an even-money favourite at Yarmouth in another seller. It remains to be seen whether new trainer Brian Ellison can bring about the necessary improvement; admittedly she did win at Leicester by 3 ½ lengths the time before, so clearly is inconsistent and the punters may have looked elsewhere. She will need to improve significantly on her last race in order to win today.

Over to Epsom in the 14:15 nursery over 7f, Romanoff has been backed in to 6.05/1 from 10.09/1. The two-year-old colt hasn't shown much so far, finishing tenth in three maiden races, two at Newmarket and while his form does not look very good, those were much classier races, and with Kieren Fallon booked and the longer trip may be just the tonic to bring about the required improvement.

Finally staying at Epsom in the 17:00 Handicap over 1m 2f, Debating Society has been well supported in to 4.84/1 from 6.05n/a. He has been dropped 3lb since his last race when he finished sixth at Sandown starting as a 2/1 favourite. That was on soft ground and he tends to run better on good ground, which is forecast for today. Also the price move may be influenced by having a renowned trainer in Sir Michael Stoute.

Recommended Bets

Lay Future Wonder @ 3.505/2 Ripon 14:00
Back Romanoff @ 6.05/1 Epsom 14:15
Back Debating Society @ 4.84/1 Epsom 17:00

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X Factor 2011: Popularity the key to finding a winner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Amelia Lily - in danger of elimination

"If you haven’t already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Marcus Collins ([3.2]) and Janet Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support."

After another surprising exit on The X Factor Mike Norman is blaming the British public for their inconsistent voting, but can see popularity winning over ability from this point on.

It goes from bad to worse, betting wise that is, for me on this year's X Factor and it's time to apportion some blame. I'm not one to point an accusing finger usually but needs must, and you lot are the ones I'm not happy with.

Do you not remember that the week before last you loved Amelia Lily, you voted her back into the competition, and you saved her from elimination with ease? And do you not remember you disliked Misha Bryan and put her in the bottom two for the second time in three weeks?

This is not a singing competition remember. We all agreed to put the acts in an order based on how much we like them, and then we proceed to vote off the least favourite each week. On Sunday we were supposed to get rid of Bryan, not Craig Colton. Anyway, I've had a whip round and I've managed to put a few quid together to wager on a few certainties this weekend. But remember, stick to the plan; Lily and Bryan are still bottom of our list.

At least I can console myself with the fact that Jack Houghton - reconfirmed as the God of Reality TV betting - got last week wrong also. When Jack perms three acts to fill the bottom two positions, and none of them end up in the bottom two, then you know that The X Factor has thrown up another odd result.

Nothing should surprise us anymore on this year's show. Just look at Little Mix (Rhythmix). They were matched at [150.0] to win the competition five or six weeks ago, now they are vying for favouritism at around [3.2]. In fact, every one of the five remaining acts has been favourite at some point.

To be fair, Little Mix have arguably been the best performers in recent weeks, and Saturday's rendition of En Vogue's Don't Let Go elevated them to the 'very possible winners' status. For a girl group to get to the last five on the X Factor is some achievement, but for a girl group to get to the last five from 16 finalists having never been in the bottom two of a public vote speaks volumes for both their talent and popularity.

And it's that talent v popularity debate that is oh so vital from this point in.

I was being flippant earlier when I said that The X Factor isn't a singing competition, but there is more than an element of truth to that comment. All five remaining acts have proved they are capable of winning the competition; in other words, on their day they're as good as each other. And that means that who wins simply boils down to who has the most fans.

Singing ability is almost a second requirement now. True, a good or bad week on the stage might win or lose a performer 5,000 votes, but that is likely to make very little difference to someone who has a whole country (Janet Devlin - Ireland) or city (Marcus Collins - Liverpool) behind them.

And it's the popularity factor that means I can easily rule out Lily ([9.0]) and Bryan ([14.0]) from winning this year. I live in a town just outside of Middlesbrough and there's very little support for 'our' girl up here; nothing in the local papers, nothing on the local news, and 'Boro itself - and the surrounding towns - is tiny in population. Bryan on the other hand just seems generally unpopular, and it appears a day doesn't go by without some negative press about her. This will surely take its toll this weekend or next.

It's difficult to work out how much support, and where from, Little Mix has, so at this stage I'd be reluctant to get them on side. But if you haven't already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Collins ([3.2]) and Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support.

To this week's bets then. I will be gutted if Little Mix get eliminated without me backing them after being unsure of their support, so a small wager goes on them at [21.0] in the 12th Elimination market.

But I have to make Lily my main bet in this market at [3.5] with a saver on Bryan at [3.1]. A Lily or Little Mix exit will result in a good profit, a Bryan exit will result in us breaking even on this market. A bet on Misha/Amelia at [3.2] in the Bottom Two Combo market is also recommended, just in case the public follow the plan. You never know.

Recommended Bets

Back Amelia Lily @ [3.5] in 12th Elimination market (5pts)
Back Little Mix (Rhythmix) @ [21.0] in 12th Elimination market (1pt)
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.1] in 12th Elimination market (3pts)
Back Misha/Amelia @ [3.2] in Bottom Two Combo market (2pts)

Previously Recommended

Back Janet Devlin @ [4.6] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Janet Devlin @ [4.0] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt) - OPEN
Back Sami Brookes @ [4.6] in Sixth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Nu Vibe @ [4.0] in Fifth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.0] in 11th Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Gary Barlow @ [5.0] in First Mentor Eliminated market (2pts) - LOST
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts) - LOST
Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Frankie Cocozza @ [2.1] in Eighth Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Marcus Collins @ [15.0] in Eighth Elimination market (1pt) - LOST

*betting pts settled = 13; pts returned = 8.6; profit/loss = -4.4

Star Predictor

So with just five acts remaining what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner and next elimination markets check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

The judges failed to reach a majority decision which meant it was up to the public who left this year's X Factor. And they decided that Craig Colton had to go....

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in...

She's wowed the judges but not the folks at home - is the game nearly up for Misha B?...

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X Factor 2011: Devlin no club classic

X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Misha and Janet look vulnerable this week

"Whatever might be said about the merits of Little Mix, they are very unlikely to survive into the very late stages of this competition. Being able to back The Risk at 1.5 in this market, then, is a gift, and should be treated as such."

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

I'm vexed. Positively vexed. It's that Mike the Norman (his parents were French). He's been in sparklingly prescient mood of late and, quite frankly, he's making me look ham amateur. Not that I'm bitter. He tries ever so hard, and deserves these brief moments of recognition. Bless him.

And anyway, whatever losses this column may have incurred of late, they will all be more than cancelled out when our long-term bets begin to blossom. Misha Bryan is as good as gone, which will allow us to collect on our top 3 lay, and I still can't envisage Janet Devlin winning the thing, which leaves us incredibly well placed on The Risk, Craig Colton and Marcus Collins - who are still the most viable contenders for the outright title.

In many ways this column is a microcosm of the X Factor itself. The show is going through some short-term pain. Ratings are down and Cowbell has reportedly intervened, giving finalists a good talking to and insisting on a triple-elimination-shocker this weekend. Massive action of this sort will, of course, bring Cowbell the Supreme (his mother is Diana Ross) massive results. So it will be for us, dear readers. We just need to adopt the approach of Cowbell, take massive action, and then reap the rewards.

Let's get started in the Groups' market. Whatever might be said about the merits of Little Mix (nee Rythmix), they are very unlikely to survive into the very late stages of this competition. Being able to back The Risk at [1.5] in this market, then, is a gift, and should be treated as such.

Similarly, Johnny Robinson is a shoo-in for the Over 25s. Although Brucknell the Kitty (her parents were demented wild cats) won plaudits last week for a slightly more bearable performance, she is ultimately unpopular and will be gone soon, perhaps as soon as this weekend. Johnny, on the other hand, will be safe for a few weeks, so we should get stuck in to the [1.5].

As for this week's elimination, it's difficult to see how the Club Classics' theme will play. Outside of our trio of The Risk, Craig and Marcus, I can easily see any of the remainder being in the bottom three. For whatever reason, the talentless Frankie has managed to evade the sing-off in the past two weeks, and I'm reluctant to weigh in again at such a short price, even though he has to struggle with the theme this time around.

A better bet to be in the bottom three is Kitty. She continues to receive negative press - most recently for an alleged racist comment directed the way of The Risk's Derry Mensah - and, on this basis, [1.6] looks pretty tasty.

Having predicted in week one that Misha Bryan was too weird to be popular, I was kicking myself a little not to have backed her for a bottom two berth last week. Given that fate, it's surprising to see her as big as [4.2] this week to be in the bottom three, which looks like a very big price to me.

Rounding of this instalment I'm going to have a punt on Janet Devlin struggling this week. The theme won't suit her, and [9.0] looks just too juicy to ignore.

This week's recommendations:
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.6] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [4.2] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [9.0] in Bottom Three market.

Previously recommended:
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
11.00pts staked; 4.64pts returned; -6.36pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

Mike Norman admits that this year's competition is now wide open after the events of Saturday night, but rank outsider Frankie Cocozza is a worthy favourite to be the next act out....

In a shock results show that saw Seventh Elimination favourite Frankie Cocozza survive yet again, Sophie Habibis is the latest contestant to fall......

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in...

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X Factor 2011: Habibis emerges as the potential winner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

X Factor contender Sophie Habibis

"Very little of Sophie Habibis was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten."

Little was shown of Sophie Habibis during the audition process, but since Bootcamp the 19-year-old Londoner has emerged as a big contender to take this year's crown says Mike Norman.

Don't you just hate deadlines? For the last 48 hours I've been desperately trying to find out what this BIG TWIST is going to be ahead of Saturday's first live show. But I've failed miserably, and now I must make this year's X Factor selections without having a clue what's going on!

I sent emails to everyone who's anyone in the reality TV world (except Jack Houghton) asking for some insight into this weekend's surprise, and the only replies I received were from Syco TV saying that Louis Walsh will be beheaded live on air for even thinking of taking Goldie Cheung to the final, and an email from my boss saying that Mike Norman will be the red hot favourite in the First Elimination market if he doesn't get his preview posted. Charming!

So whatever the twist is going to be I'm afraid I'm completely in the dark, though most of my selections won't be affected by whatever happens on Saturday night.

I've watched all 16 finalists as much as I possibly can. Actually, that's a lie because there is no footage of 'super' group The Risk as they were only put together after the Judges Houses stage was complete. For the record The Risk started off as five solo performers and a group called The Keys. The five individuals then formed a group (called The Risk) only for two of them to be later axed whilst the three that were retained joined one member from The Keys. They were then re-named... err... The Risk!

I think we should all be thankful that The Risk's mentor Tulisa Contostavlos doesn't breed dogs or we'd have a three-legged chocolate brown German bearded collie walking the streets!

I've wrote a few words on each of the 16 finalists here, and from that you can probably deduce who I like and don't like, but after much deliberation I've narrowed an initial five or six-long list down to just two selections in the Winner market.

I've been a massive fan of [5.0] favourite Janet Devlin since the first time that I saw her, and if anyone had have said to me a few days ago that she won't be one of my selections I'd have probably collapsed in a fit of hysterics. But here I am deserting her in favour of 19-year-old Londoner Sophie Habibis. Habibis wasn't even on my radar two weeks ago, but ever since Bootcamp I haven't been able to stop watching clips of her at every opportunity. I'm now officially hooked on her.

I'm not a huge follower of trends in competitions like this either, but we have seven years of results to go on now and it's fair to say that the trends are starting to have an impact, especially when your fancied contestant fits these trends as well as being able to sing.

The last six winners of the X Factor have been in the Boys or Girls category, whilst five of those six winners were between the ages of 18 and 21. Also worthy of note is the location of the previous winners; every one has come from an area with a huge population - Newcastle (Joe McElderry), Manchester (Shayne Ward), Scotland (Leon Jackson), Essex (Matt Cardle) and London (Steve Brookstein, Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke).

Habibis fits perfectly into all these pointers, so at [14.0] to back, she is very much worth a wager at this stage. Very little of her was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten. And above all else she is a great singer and looks to have a very unpretentious personality.

My other selection is the very funny and likeable Craig Colton at [18.0]. Again he fit's the profile of the previous winners though it is a worry that two of the other Boys - Marcus Collins ([14.0]) and James Michael ([18.0]) - also come from Liverpool. If Colton can see off them two and get that part of the country supporting him then he will go far.

One of my strongest recommendations is Johnnie Robinson at [4.2] in the Over 25s market. I can't emphasise enough how likeable this 45-year-old is, and I can see the whole country - except for my boss that is - falling in love with his infectious personality. He's not the greatest singer in the world, but I think the public will do everything in their power to keep him in the competition as long as they can. He is going to be an uplifting journey.

If anyone knows what the much anticipated twist is - or has an idea of what it is - then please leave a comment below. I can officially confirm however that Wagner isn't returning... and neither are Jedward, fingers crossed!

Recommended Bets

Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts)

Already advised

Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt)

It's official, this year's 16 X Factor Finalists have been revealed and the betting is about to intensify. Mike Norman explains......

Bootcamp is looming and Mike Norman already knows some of the acts that have made it to the final TV stages, but who has impressed during the last few weeks of X Factor auditions?...

After a few more audition shows the whole nation is talking about a 21-year-old Scottish girl, but Mike Norman wasn't as impressed as everyone else and believes she won't appeal enough to win....

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XY Factor - Thursday 3 March

XY Factor / XY Factor / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Thursday

Today's Race: Wolverhampton 5.40

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place FREQUENCY [5.0]

Yesterday's Return: +12.84

Running Return (March)
+8.84

VERDICT:
Blue Cossack obliged for us yesterday at a Betfair SP of [4.74]. In the seller at Wolverhampton today FREQUENCY can give the in form Michael Wigham another winner. The stable have sent out five winners from their last eight runners and Frequency is pretty efficient at this level and on this circuit.

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Thursday...

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Wednesday.......

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Tuesday.......

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XY Factor - Tuesday 1 March

XY Factor / XY Factor / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Tuesday....

Today's Race: Lingfield 3.45

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
2 point win and 2 point place ART SCHOLAR [10]

Yesterday's Return: -5

Running Return (March)
+0.00

VERDICT:
In the 3.45 at Lingfield ART SCHOLAR is worth a win and place interest at double figure odds. He has paid the price for a debut five length success but is now tumbling down the weights again to a point where he is of interest today - particularly if the first time visor brings about improvement.

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Tuesday.......

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Monday........

The XY Factor heads to Towcester on Sunday........

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XY Factor - Sunday 27 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Towcester on Sunday.....

Today's Race: Towcester 4.35

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
5 point win MISS FLEUR [3.35]

Yesterday's Return: -5

Running Return (February)
-57.48

VERDICT:
Yesterday's selection traded at 1.04 before being collared in the dying stages on the opener at Lingfield. Towcester will be a paradise for mudlarks this afternoon and MISS FLEUR has form on bottomless ground and a relatively light weight - she is top-rated.

The XY Factor heads to Towcester on Sunday........

The XY Factor is at Lingfield on Saturday........

The XY Factor bids for three wins in-a-row on Friday.......

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XY Factor - Sunday 20 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 20 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor is at Kempton for the finale on Sunday.....

Today's Race: Kempton 5.25

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place HAVING A BALL [8.2]

Yesterday's Return: -6

Running Return (February)
-66.38

VERDICT:
In the 5.25 at Kempton HAVING A BALL can gain an overdue success. He is a course and distance regular - so much so he almost has a season ticket here. The race has cut up with three non runners and Having A Ball has strong place claims.

The XY Factor is at Kempton for the finale on Sunday........

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Saturday.......

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Friday.......

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XY Factor - Saturday 19 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 19 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Saturday....

Today's Race: Lingfield 5.10

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place AUDEMAR [6.6]

Yesterday's Return: -6

Running Return (February)
-60.38

VERDICT:
In the 5.10 at Lingfield on Saturday AUDEMAR can strike in a competitive handicap. The Ed Vaughan trained runner is in consistent form and hopefully the application of blinkers for the first time can make the difference.

The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Saturday.......

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Friday.......

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Thursday.......

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XY Factor - Wednesday 16 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Kempton on Wednesday......

Today's Race: Kempton 7.40

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
4 point win and 4 point place WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN [7.0]

Yesterday's Return: -5

Running Return (February)
-40.38

VERDICT:
The 7.40 at Kempton this evening gives WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN a chance to build on his success at Wolverhampton last time out. This is a tougher grade although he is meeting several rivals who are reappearing after lengthy absences,

The XY Factor heads to Kempton on Wednesday.........

The XY Factor is at Southwell on Tuesday........

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Monday........

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XY Factor - Tuesday 15 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor is at Southwell on Tuesday.....

Today's Race: Southwell 4.50

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
5 point win HOME [1.63]

Yesterday's Return: -5

Running Return (February)
-35.38

VERDICT:
No awards for originality but HOME looks a solid bet at around [1.63] in the finale at Southwell. He is on a good mark at the moment judged by a seven length victory on the surface last time out and a 6lb penalty should be overcome.

The XY Factor is at Southwell on Tuesday........

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Monday........

The XY Factor heads to Hereford on Sunday.......

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XY Factor - Monday 14 February

XY Factor / XY Factor / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Monday.....

Today's Race: Wolverhampton 5.10

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
5 point win ELVIRA DELIGHT [2.6]

Yesterday's Return: -6

Running Return (February)
-30.38

VERDICT:
The 5.10 at Wolverhampton would appear to give ELVIRA DELIGHT a good chance of following up her Lingfield success last time out. She won well at Lingfield following up a promising debut effort at Kempton and the stable are in good form.

The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton on Monday........

The XY Factor heads to Hereford on Sunday.......

The XY Factor takes in the first race at Wolverhampton on Saturday........

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XY Factor - Friday 11 February

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The XY Factor heads to Wolverhampton's evening meeting.....

Today's Race: Wolverhampton 8.10

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place RIGID [7.4]

Yesterday's Return: +3

Running Return (February)
-21.08

VERDICT:
Master Of Dance ran into second on Thursday for a profit of 3 points on the day. In the finale at Wolverhampton on Friday RIGID can build on the strength of a seemingly improved run at Kempton last time out and should be able to reverse form Guilderstern who was second. The drop back in distance tonight should also help.

Timeform look ahead to the weekend's best racing......

Timeform go through the field for the season's most valuable handicap hurdle......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton...

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XY Factor - Thursday 10 February

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The XY Factor is at Kempton on Thursday....

Today's Race: Kempton 8.40

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place MASTER OF DANCE [7.2]

Yesterday's Return: -5

Running Return (February)
-24.08

VERDICT:
Dorcas Lane ran well in second place last night but unfotunately not quite good enough to win. In the finale at Kempton on Thursday the race has a different complexion following the defection of the forecast favourite Saddlers Bend. The door may now be open for MASTER OF DANCE. He's tumbled down the weights from a career high 83 when trained by Richard Hannon but this doesn't look too competitive and trainer James Given has struck form.

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Kempton...

The XY Factor is at Kempton on Thursday.......

Today's movers come from the meetings at Taunton and Huntingdon....

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XY Factor - Tuesday 8 February

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The XY Factor heads to Southwell on Tuesday....

Today's Race: Southwell 4.15

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
5 point win MEDITERRANEAN SEA [2.64]

Yesterday's Return: -3

Running Return (February)
-14.08

VERDICT:
MEDITERRANEAN SEA is top-rated. She is the only course and distance winner in the line-up but also has a touch of seconditis.However she ran the in form Stanley Rigby to a neck last time out which was a sound enough effort.

Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year......

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell......

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XY Factor - Monday 7 February

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The XY Factor starts a new week at Wolverhampton....

Today's Race: Wolverhampton 4.05

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
2 point win and 2 point place TEWIN WOOD [7.4]

Yesterday's Return: -3

Running Return (February)
-11.08

VERDICT:
In the 4.05 at Wolverhampton TEWIN WOOD looks interesting for the in form stable of Alan Bailey. He races on the back of a break following a claiming success at Kempton. Steed is worth taking on as he ran poorly on his only start here and his revival in form has come on the Fibresand surface at Southwell.

The Champion Chase could prove to be one of the races of the Festival, with dual winner Master Minded set to have another crack at the one who stole his crown last year, Big Zeb. However, Timeform reckon the value lies elsewhere.......

Timeform look back at Saturday's jumping......

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Lingfield and Wolverhampton....

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XY Factor - Saturday 5 February

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The XY Factor heads to Lingfield on Saturday.....

Today's Race: Lingfield 4.30

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
3 point win and 3 point place ZEBRANO [7.2]

Yesterday's Return: +1.44

Running Return (February)
-2.08

VERDICT:
A small profit on Friday thanks to the placed effort of Riflessione who just crept into third. Today's bet is ZEBRANO in the final race at Lingfield who showed his current well being with a nice victory at Kempton last time out when he appeared to score with plenty in hand.

There's a good quality card at Leopardstown in Ireland, but Musselburgh also features a couple of really interesting contests, including the Scottish Triumph Hurdle......

Timeform run the rule over the next week's racing, which starts with an all-star card at Leopardstown on Sunday and ends with another at Newbury on Saturday......

The Irish Hennessy meeting at Leopardstown is the last stepping stone before the Cheltenham Festival for many leading ante-post fancies from across the Irish Sea and the four Grade 1 events on the card all promise to be high-class renewals....

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XY Factor - Saturday 30 January

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The XY Factor is at Lingfield on Saturday.............

Today's Race: Lingfield 4.05

Today's Bet and current Betfair price:
5 point win DENTON [4.5]

Yesterday's Return: -6

Running Return (January)
-54.46

VERDICT:
In the final race at Lingfield on Saturday afternoon DENTON looks interesting after a short break. He has a great wins-runs ratio, including a course and distance win here and could well attempt to make all the running today.

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which features a couple of potentially informative Champion Hurdle trials......

Timeform's Simon Baker looks through the main contenders for what is shaping up to be the best Champion Hurdle in many seasons......

There may be only five runners, but this Kempton handicap looks one of the most interesting races of the day.......

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