"My Tent Or Yours is worth a place market lay at around 1.574/7 as, although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks."
Forced to work for a living nowadays, Jack Houghton has had to come up with profitable punting strategies that don't rely on hours of form study. Having outlined the tenets of successful Festival betting earlier in the week, here he previews Tuesday's card, where he reckons that many-people's-banker My Tent Of Yours is a massive lay.
William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Applying our speed-rating rule eliminates half the field, leaving us considering Cause of Causes, Champagne Fever, Jezki, Pique Sous, Dodging Bullets and River Maigue as likely contenders. Short-odds favourite, My Tent Or Yours, is worth a place market lay on this basis alone at around 1.574/7. Although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks.
Of our six contenders, Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever (9.08/1) and Cause of Causes (40.039/1) look the best value, and I'll be splitting my stake between them in the win market.
Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Speed ratings do little to make the market for this one any clearer, our test returning the top three in the market of Simonsig, Overturn and Arvika Ligeonniere. And given that they have all shown strong form at the Festival, we're not much closer to an answer. If I was forced to bet, I'd take Simonsig, as Overturn is not guaranteed to be at his best on the ground, and Arvika Ligeonniere has seemed a little chancy with his jumping. But you're never forced to have a bet, so I'd rather sit this one out.
JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
Our speed-rating test eliminates all-but eight of this 24-runner field, and ruling-out those with dodgy Cheltenham form leaves us with the most likely contenders of Knockara Beau (18.017/1), Fruity O'Rooney (13.012/1), Nadiya De La Vega (19.018/1) and The Package (18.017/1). Given the healthy odds available about all four, I'll be splitting my stake and backing all of them.
Stan James Champion Hurdle
Much like the Arkle, our tests do little to help us here, with the top five in the market all having demonstrated the ability to run fast, and to run well at Cheltenham. At the prices, though, I really like Zarkandar at around (5.39/2). He posted a fast time on soft ground in the International in December, and a repeat of that performance would likely be enough to win this.
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase
Another big field quickly reduced by applying the speed-rating rule, we are left with A New Story (20.019/1), Sizing Australia (17.016/1) and Wedger Pardy (46.045/1) when also ridding ourselves of those with questionable Cheltenham form.
OLBG Mares´ Hurdle
Although a few of these have run quick times, only two offer any kind of guarantee that they will act at Cheltenham: Quevega (1.695/7) and Une Artiste (8.88/1). And although it seems sacrilegious to oppose Quevega in her bid for a fifth consecutive win in this race, I'll be backing Une Artiste in the win and place markets with some hope that she can cause an upset. Although still able to win races, Quevega is not at her very best on softer ground, conditions Une Artiste excels in.
Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase
Restless Harry (60.059/1), Hazy Tom (19.5n/a) and Shangani (9.617/2) have posted beter speed figures over fences than the rest of these, but given Hazy Tom's dodgy showing at the Festival last year, I'll be splitting my stake between the other two. A return to his best form would make Restless Harry difficult to beat in this, and Shangani is still open to further progression.
*All odds quoted are a guide and you are recommended to take Betfair SP.
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