Cheltenham Festival 2013: A working person's guide - Tuesday

"My Tent Or Yours is worth a place market lay at around 1.574/7 as, although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks."

Forced to work for a living nowadays, Jack Houghton has had to come up with profitable punting strategies that don't rely on hours of form study. Having outlined the tenets of successful Festival betting earlier in the week, here he previews Tuesday's card, where he reckons that many-people's-banker My Tent Of Yours is a massive lay.

William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Applying our speed-rating rule eliminates half the field, leaving us considering Cause of Causes, Champagne Fever, Jezki, Pique Sous, Dodging Bullets and River Maigue as likely contenders. Short-odds favourite, My Tent Or Yours, is worth a place market lay on this basis alone at around 1.574/7. Although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks.

Of our six contenders, Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever (9.08/1) and Cause of Causes (40.039/1) look the best value, and I'll be splitting my stake between them in the win market.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Speed ratings do little to make the market for this one any clearer, our test returning the top three in the market of Simonsig, Overturn and Arvika Ligeonniere. And given that they have all shown strong form at the Festival, we're not much closer to an answer. If I was forced to bet, I'd take Simonsig, as Overturn is not guaranteed to be at his best on the ground, and Arvika Ligeonniere has seemed a little chancy with his jumping. But you're never forced to have a bet, so I'd rather sit this one out.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

Our speed-rating test eliminates all-but eight of this 24-runner field, and ruling-out those with dodgy Cheltenham form leaves us with the most likely contenders of Knockara Beau (18.017/1), Fruity O'Rooney (13.012/1), Nadiya De La Vega (19.018/1) and The Package (18.017/1). Given the healthy odds available about all four, I'll be splitting my stake and backing all of them.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Much like the Arkle, our tests do little to help us here, with the top five in the market all having demonstrated the ability to run fast, and to run well at Cheltenham. At the prices, though, I really like Zarkandar at around (5.39/2). He posted a fast time on soft ground in the International in December, and a repeat of that performance would likely be enough to win this.

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

Another big field quickly reduced by applying the speed-rating rule, we are left with A New Story (20.019/1), Sizing Australia (17.016/1) and Wedger Pardy (46.045/1) when also ridding ourselves of those with questionable Cheltenham form.

OLBG Mares´ Hurdle

Although a few of these have run quick times, only two offer any kind of guarantee that they will act at Cheltenham: Quevega (1.695/7) and Une Artiste (8.88/1). And although it seems sacrilegious to oppose Quevega in her bid for a fifth consecutive win in this race, I'll be backing Une Artiste in the win and place markets with some hope that she can cause an upset. Although still able to win races, Quevega is not at her very best on softer ground, conditions Une Artiste excels in.

Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase

Restless Harry (60.059/1), Hazy Tom (19.5n/a) and Shangani (9.617/2) have posted beter speed figures over fences than the rest of these, but given Hazy Tom's dodgy showing at the Festival last year, I'll be splitting my stake between the other two. A return to his best form would make Restless Harry difficult to beat in this, and Shangani is still open to further progression.

*All odds quoted are a guide and you are recommended to take Betfair SP.

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Cheltenham Festival 2012: A working person's guide

The Cheltenham Festival / Jack Houghton / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sprinter Sacre may be odds-on, but he will struggle to win the Arkle

"When you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently."

When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, not everyone has the time for hours of form study, but that doesn't mean you can't have a profitable few days. Just follow these simple rules, writes Jack Houghton.

There was a time when I could sit for hours, pouring over Festival form, and argue I was working. Then I left Betfair. My new office has no television, no Racing Posts, no internet access to any sites of interest, and no-one stopping-by my desk to ask if Hurricane Fly is under-priced in the Champion Hurdle.

This year, as for the last five, my Cheltenham Festival experience will be the same as that of most racing fans: I'll place my bets in the morning and go to work, hoping I can shield myself from any results long enough to watch a recording of the action unfold in the evening, as if live. Provided the flashing box under my telly hasn't instead recorded nine episodes of Bob the Builder, as it did last year, that is.

The problem is, that with so much good racing, and so little time, it's hard to properly assess what those morning bets should be. Thankfully, over the last few years, I've adopted some approaches that allow good decision making, even with limited time.

First, I rely heavily on speed ratings. Horses who have not managed to post a fast time are unlikely to cope with the frenetic and sustained pace that characterises most Festival races. I use my own ratings, but any commercially-available speed ratings will do. Find the best speed figure achieved by any horse in the field, and then eliminate any other horse yet to run within 90 per cent of that figure. It's amazing how quickly this reduces the field to a manageable number of more likely contenders and, more importantly, how often it gets rid of severely underpriced "fancies" who go on to bomb.

Second, I eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and not been placed. If I have more time, I use Timeform ratings and instead eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and, in so doing, has failed to return a rating within 10lbs of its best. In each of the last six years, between 80 and 90 per cent of all Festival winners have demonstrated Cheltenham form in this way, or are at least making their track debut.

Third, I take the Betfair SP. Even a cursory glance at past results will tell you that this will outperform anything else available in the market and, unless you are a much better predictor of market movement than me, it will also likely outperform those who try to play in the market directly.

Fourth, I often split my stake and place more than one bet in a race. This might mean backing more than one horse and laying another in the place market (particularly those short-priced ones who have failed the tests above). By spreading your risk, you might reduce your chance of a big win, but you also reduce your chance of a series of crippling defeats. And, particularly relevant for the evening armchair punter, you know that, in most races, you will have something to shout for in the closing stages of most races.

Form purists might argue that these approaches may arbitrarily eliminate a horse from your reckoning that is worth considering - and they'd be absolutely right - but when you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently.

A working example - the Arkle Chase:

Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field, and only Blackstairmountain, Cue Card, Menorah and Sprinter Sacre get within 90 per cent of it.

Neither Blackstairmountain nor Sprinter Sacre have run within 10lbs of their best, leaving us with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah as the most likely winners.

I'll be having a point on each, as well as laying the odds-on Sprinter Sacre for two points - all at Betfair SP.

Whether they be emotional or financial, everyone has their own favourite Gold Cup recollections and Timeform's Adam Brookes is no different......

Invictus has been ruled out of the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

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A working person's guide to Cheltenham: Part Two

The Cheltenham Festival / Jack Houghton / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jack believes Long Run is a lay in the Gold Cup place market

"Despite the supposedly ultra-competitive on-course ring at Prestbury Park, year on year the Betfair SP outperforms the industry SP."

Even if you can't catch the action live at Cheltenham 2011, there's no need to feel beleaguered, as Jack Houghton explains in part two of his festival betting guide for the workers.

Time Saving Tip Two: Trust Cheltenham Form

Much is made of the unique test Cheltenham sets horses. Often on the turn, horses require balance, and yet those turns do not slow the relentless pace. The undulations find out the unfit, but not to the extent that only the stamina-laden can win. Then there are the fences: testing but not cruel. This special blend, it is argued, means that, at the Festival, Cheltenham form should be trusted above all else.

I've never been able to determine whether it really is course idiosyncrasy - or simply that Cheltenham largely stages top-class racing, meaning that horses who have performed well there are likely to perform well in the top races offered at the Festival - but Cheltenham form does seem to give a horse an advantage.

Take last year. In 24 races (discounting the Bumper and X-Country), 16 of the winners had previously won, or been placed at, Cheltenham. Not hugely impressive, perhaps, but when you take out those races where the winner hadn't had the opportunity to run at Cheltenham, the strike rate improves to 16 out of 19. This pattern is broadly repeated in every Festival in the last decade. In other words, if a horse has previously tried Cheltenham and failed, they're unlikely to rectify things at the Festival.

Getting rid of those horses who have demonstrated they don't perform at the Festival, then, and our Supreme Novices' short-list is left with Cue Card, Spirit Son, Zaidpour and Sam Winner. The last three of these are all available at generous prices.

Time Saving Tip Three: Trust Betfair SP

Despite the supposedly ultra-competitive on-course ring at Prestbury Park, year on year the Betfair SP outperforms the industry SP. Even a cursory glance at past results demonstrates this beyond any doubt. Sure, the odd result might go against you, but in the long-run you will be significantly better off as a backer on Betfair.

A trickier decision is whether to take prices on the machine in the morning, or trust the Betfair SP. Clearly this will depend on a number of factors - chief among them your ability to judge which way the market will move and how comfortable you are with an uncertain potential reward - but, looking at my own Festival betting in the last three years, it's clear that Betfair SP would have been a better option for me, returning a profit six per cent higher than I managed when taking prices in the morning.

Maybe I'm just a spectacularly poor judge of the market, but if you're pressed for time, are you confident that you could do any better?

Time Saving Tip Four: Place More Bets

Against all good sense, less regular punters tend to dramatically increase their stakes during Cheltenham. Add to this scenario the ultra-competitive racing and a propensity to pin all hopes on one selection in a race and it's no surprise some punters have a torrid time. By spreading your risk, you might reduce your chance of a big win, but you also reduce your chance of a series of crippling defeats. And, particularly relevant for the evening armchair punter, you know that, in most races, you will have something to shout for in the closing stages of most races.

This strategy might include laying horses in the place market who fail our first two tests above - like Long Run in the Gold Cup.

Time Saving Tip Five: Follow These Selections

Perhaps this still all sounds too much like hard work. If it is, here are my big-race suggestions for the week ahead. I've put guide prices in, but would recommend sticking with Betfair SP:

Champion Hurdle: Back Khyber Kim [18.5] and Peddlers Cross ([7.4]).

Queen Mother: Back Master Minded [4.2] and Sizing Europe [11.0]. Lay Somersby in the place market [2.76].

World Hurdle: Lay Grands Crus in win [3.85] and place [1.53] markets. Back Celestial Halo [120.0].

Gold Cup: Back Imperial Commander [4.7], Kauto Star [7.4] and Denman [8.0]. Lay Long Run in the place market [2.5].

Graham Cunningham is on RUK duty at Prestbury Park this week and he's back on familiar territory on betting.betfair.com as he sets out to nominate the ones to be with and his four to swerve on Champion Hurdle day....

Timeform take you through the field for what is shaping up to be the most competitive Champion Hurdle in many a year......

Even if you can't swan off to Prestbury Park for the week, or even watch the action on TV, you can still have a profitable Cheltenham. Here's Jack Houghton's tips for the work bound bettor....

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