Cheltenham Festival 2013: Handicappers' Corner Special

"Sprinter Sacre’s imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6..."

Politics certainly isn't the only field in which "a week is a long time", explains jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

Indeed, I can report that it has been quite an eventful seven days for Welsh-born Evertonians who put ratings on horses for a living. It began with Everton being unceremoniously dumped out of the FA Cup by unfancied Wigan, whilst the day job got off to a similarly unpromising start when My Tent Or Yours (14lb clear on Timeform ratings) suffered defeat in the Cheltenham Festival opener on Tuesday. Fortunately, things rallied splendidly thereafter, and the week ended with Bobs Worth leading home a one-two-three for Timeform ratings in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Everton beating Premier League champions Manchester City. Oh, and in case anyone missed Saturday evening's rugby result, Wales thumped England to claim the Six Nations' title again. Smug doesn't even come close to covering it...

Although Wales ruled the roost in the rugby, it was Ireland - and particularly Willie Mullins - who stole the honours at the Cheltenham Festival, claiming a record haul of 14 wins. Mullins supplied five of those successes, with pride of place going to Hurricane Fly (Timeform rating h173), who became the first horse since Comedy of Errors in 1975 to regain his Champion Hurdle crown when producing a gutsy display to beat 2012 winner Rock On Ruby (h168) and Countrywide Flame (h164) - though the performances of the latter pair did provoke thoughts of "what might have been" with Darlan (h170), who was set to beat that pair comprehensively at Doncaster last month when suffering a fatal fall. 

That's 15 Grade 1 wins now for Hurricane Fly, which is a remarkable achievement that arguably hasn't received the credit it deserves. Indeed, many of the pre-Cheltenham preview nights downplayed Hurricane Fly's record due to him "beating the same horses on Irish soil". The folly of this argument was further highlighted when Solwhit (h164) - defeated by Hurricane Fly on four out of their five meetings - showed himself to be better than ever when winning the World Hurdle. Hot favourite Oscar Whisky (h167) patently failed to give his running in the World Hurdle but, happily, that proved to be the exception to the rule during Festival week, with most of the leading players running to somewhere near their best and producing some reliable-looking results.

Take the Gold Cup, for example, which saw all of the leading players run to form, Bobs Worth (c179) emerging as an above-average winner of the race as he stayed on strongly in the rain-softened conditions to beat Sir des Champs (c173) by seven lengths, with 2011 hero Long Run (c172) finishing third for the second year running - the last-named gelding is now rated on the balance of his form over the past two seasons. Silviniaco Conti (c172+) could well have stirred things up had he not fallen three out when still going strongly and, along with the Gold Cup first two, underlined what a vintage crop of novice chasers we enjoyed in 2011/12.

Second-season chasers duly dominated the other open Grade 1 chases at the meeting, with Cue Card (c175) proving far too strong for First Lieutenant (c166) and For Non Stop (c163) in the Ryanair Chase, in which 2012 winner Riverside Theatre (c162) could manage only fourth this time around. The Ryanair provided long overdue recognition on the big stage for Cue Card and confirmed our view that he is one of the very best horses in training - he now shares the same rating as Cheltenham absentee, and fellow second-season chaser, Flemenstar (c175) and they sit below only Bobs Worth and Sprinter Sacre in the Timeform chase rankings.

Ah yes, Sprinter Sacre. As many readers may already be aware, Sprinter Sacre's imperious display in the Queen Mother Champion Chase earned him a rating of c192p, which is the highest since our Chasers & Hurdlers series began in 1975/6, whilst the Tom Dreaper-trained superstars of the 1960s, Arkle and Flyingbolt, are the only horses to have achieved a higher rating in Timeform's 65-year history. It could be argued that the Champion Chase should be rated even higher, as neither of the placed horses have been rated as running to their very best Timeform figure, though a late stumble (plus the effort of trying to match strides with Sprinter Sacre) almost certainly contributed to 2011 winner Sizing Europe (c173) tiring close home as he finished 19 lengths back in second, running some 6lb below his best.

Simonsig (c162P) remains the most plausible challenger to stable-companion Sprinter Sacre in 2013/14, even though his win in the Arkle Chase wasn't quite as impressive as most had imagined it would be. That said, the grey still ran to a very high level of form in defeating Irish raider Baily Green (c157), who had a better chance on form than the betting suggested. In addition, Simonsig rather compromised his chance by racing too freely and jumping less fluently than usual, so it reflects well on him that he still had enough in reserve to hold on in the latter stages - particularly as fellow pacesetters Overturn (c156) and Arvika Ligeonierre (c155) folded tamely out of contention.

With the exception of Simonsig, the novice chasers on show at last week's Festival didn't look anything out of the ordinary and seem unlikely to be emulating that vintage crop from last season come next March. By contrast, there was an abundance of potential top-class performers to be found amongst the novice hurdlers in action over the four-day meeting. 

Despite that chastening defeat in the Supreme Novices', My Tent Or Yours (h167) remains very much one to consider for the 2014 Champion Hurdle, the manner in which he tanked through the race (combined with some very fluent jumping) going a long way to confirm the striking impression he'd made when winning the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. His Achilles' heel at this stage remains his response to pressure against a very tough opponent - his Cheltenham second to Champagne Fever (h165) was a carbon copy to the latter stages of last season's Aintree bumper, when he lost out to The New One. 

It also needs stressing that the 2013 Supreme looks a vintage renewal, with Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and third-placed Jezki (h162) pulling fully 15 lengths clear of the remainder off a sound pace.  In addition, it is worth remembering that Sprinter Sacre also failed to get up the hill so well as seemed likely after pulling very hard for Tony McCoy when only third in a similarly strong Supreme in 2011, so it is certainly too soon to be writing off My Tent Or Yours.

The aforementioned The New One (h155p) could be renewing rivalry with My Tent Or Yours in 2013/14 if connections opt to drop him in trip following his impressive win in the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. The New One certainly showed an impressive turn of foot to put that race to bed after a steady early gallop, whilst the likes of Istabraq, Hardy Eustace and Rock On Ruby all contested this 21-furlong novice championship 12 months prior to tasting Champion Hurdle glory for the first time.

Perhaps the brightest Champion Hurdle hope to emerge from last week's Festival, however, was Triumph Hurdle winner Our Conor (h160p), who posted the highest rating by a juvenile since Jair du Cochet (163 in 2000/01) and subsequent Champion Hurdle winner Hors La Loi III (162p in 1998/99). The Triumph form made plenty of sense amongst the main pack, so it is safe to assume that Our Conor is full value (at the very least!) for his 15-length winning margin and he should prove a formidable opponent to Hurricane Fly on Irish soil next winter.

In common with Our Conor, At Fishers Cross (h153p) can boast a 100% record in 2012/13 - including a defeat of The New One - and he justified favouritism in highly satisfactory fashion in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. It was a landmark Grade 1 victory for up-and-coming trainer Rebecca Curtis and ensured it wasn't the only Welsh victory over highly-touted English rivals last week...

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Cheltenham Festival SmartPlays: Friday March 15

"The potentially ferocious gallop should suit Marshal Zhukov ideally and he looks just the type to thrive in a contest such as this..."

Timeform suggest a trio of plays for the final day of Cheltenham 2013...

There are three that stand out on form in the opening race on the final day of Cheltenham 2013, namely Far West, Our Conor and Rolling Star, and our selection comes from that trio. The Paul Nicholls-trained Far West makes plenty of appeal with him being unbeaten in the UK but, for all that he showed more speed than anticipated when beating River Maigue at Ascot last time, this represents by far his stiffest task to date so he is left to one side. Fellow French import Rolling Star commands plenty of respect following his success in a Grade 2 at this venue in January, when beating Irish Saint by two and a quarter lengths, and he is clearly open to improvement but Our Conor boasts more experience over timber and is open to just as much progress, so he is the one for us. Our Conor, who was useful on the Flat, is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and was tremendously impressive when taking the step up to Grade 1 company in his stride at Leopardstown last time, beating Diakali easily by five lengths. He is by no means short of speed but has plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree, being a half-brother to the useful staying chaser Gidam Gidam, so he should cope with the demands of this stiffer track and he rates as an exciting prospect.
The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is yet another seemingly imponderable Festival handicap, though there is a difference here as one makes an abundance of appeal. The horse we are quite happy to place our faith in is Gevrey Chambertin, a full-brother to Grands Crus who is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and has improved with each outing. The five-year-old made his handicap debut at Wincanton on his most recent outing in January, making a mockery of his opening BHA mark of 130 as he slammed his rivals by seven lengths, winning easily and, such was the impression created that day, he is well worth marking up above and beyond the bare form. The Paul Nicholls-trained Salubrious, who is also lightly-raced and boasts some strong form lines, and Toner d'Oudairies, who finished second in this race 12 months ago off a 2 lb lower mark, head a plethora of dangers but the David Pipe-trained Gevrey Chambertin, who strikes as the type that will continue to improve, boasts leading claims and seems certain to go close. 

The concluding race of Cheltenham 2013 will be the Grand Annual, a notoriously difficult handicap to solve. Nicky Henderson, who was successful in the race that is named after his father with Bellvano last year, has no less than six strings to his bow this time around, with Tanks For That and Kid Cassidy arguably the two most interesting. Alderwood, who landed the County Hurdle last season, has been touted by many as a likely winner of this race but we are quite happy to be against him here, as he is not certain to make up into as good a chaser as he was a hurdler and it was disappointing that he could not defy a mark of 135 (races off 140 here) at Punchestown last time despite being relatively well supported. Instead we will side with the Caroline Keevil-trained Marshal Zhukov, who was a fairly useful hurdler but has already shown himself to be better over the larger obstacles in just five attempts. The seven-year-old has been labelled in some quarters as headstrong, a description that is not far from the mark given that he has raced freely in virtually all of his races since switching to this sphere, but what he has also done is jump well, an encouraging sign given the demands of this race. The potentially ferocious gallop should suit him ideally and he looks just the type to thrive in a contest such as this. 

Timeform SmartPlays:
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Back Our Conor @ 4.3100/30 in the 13:30
Back Gevrey Chambertin @ 6.411/2 in the 16:40
Back Marshal Zhukov @ 16.015/1 in the 17:15

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Cheltenham Festival Results: In-play and antepost highs and lows from day one

All the info you need to know from the Betfair markets on the first day at Cheltenham 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Winner:  Champagne Fever 
Betfair Starting Price:  5.95/1 
Antepost High of Winner:  270.0269/1 
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: My Tent or Yours traded at a low of 1.511/2 in-running; Champagne Fever backed at 16.015/1 

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Winner:  Simonsig 
Betfair Starting Price: 1.564/7 
Antepost High of Winner:  13.5n/a
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: Simonsig touched evens in-running; huge outside Baily Green hit a low of 2.265/4 

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase
Winner:  Golden Chieftain
Betfair Starting Price: 28.69n/a
Antepost High of Winner: 90.089/1
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: White Star Line touched 1.558/15 in-running

Champion Hurdle 
Winner:  Hurricane Fly 
Betfair Starting Price: 2.83n/a
Antepost High of Winner:  10.09/1
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: Zarkandar backed at 2.26/5; Rock on Ruby at 2.68/5; Hurricane Fly touched 11.010/1  

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Cheltenham Festival 2013: A working person's guide - Tuesday

"My Tent Or Yours is worth a place market lay at around 1.574/7 as, although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks."

Forced to work for a living nowadays, Jack Houghton has had to come up with profitable punting strategies that don't rely on hours of form study. Having outlined the tenets of successful Festival betting earlier in the week, here he previews Tuesday's card, where he reckons that many-people's-banker My Tent Of Yours is a massive lay.

William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Applying our speed-rating rule eliminates half the field, leaving us considering Cause of Causes, Champagne Fever, Jezki, Pique Sous, Dodging Bullets and River Maigue as likely contenders. Short-odds favourite, My Tent Or Yours, is worth a place market lay on this basis alone at around 1.574/7. Although visually impressive in his wins to date, he's yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks.

Of our six contenders, Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever (9.08/1) and Cause of Causes (40.039/1) look the best value, and I'll be splitting my stake between them in the win market.

Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Speed ratings do little to make the market for this one any clearer, our test returning the top three in the market of Simonsig, Overturn and Arvika Ligeonniere. And given that they have all shown strong form at the Festival, we're not much closer to an answer. If I was forced to bet, I'd take Simonsig, as Overturn is not guaranteed to be at his best on the ground, and Arvika Ligeonniere has seemed a little chancy with his jumping. But you're never forced to have a bet, so I'd rather sit this one out.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

Our speed-rating test eliminates all-but eight of this 24-runner field, and ruling-out those with dodgy Cheltenham form leaves us with the most likely contenders of Knockara Beau (18.017/1), Fruity O'Rooney (13.012/1), Nadiya De La Vega (19.018/1) and The Package (18.017/1). Given the healthy odds available about all four, I'll be splitting my stake and backing all of them.

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Much like the Arkle, our tests do little to help us here, with the top five in the market all having demonstrated the ability to run fast, and to run well at Cheltenham. At the prices, though, I really like Zarkandar at around (5.39/2). He posted a fast time on soft ground in the International in December, and a repeat of that performance would likely be enough to win this.

Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

Another big field quickly reduced by applying the speed-rating rule, we are left with A New Story (20.019/1), Sizing Australia (17.016/1) and Wedger Pardy (46.045/1) when also ridding ourselves of those with questionable Cheltenham form.

OLBG Mares´ Hurdle

Although a few of these have run quick times, only two offer any kind of guarantee that they will act at Cheltenham: Quevega (1.695/7) and Une Artiste (8.88/1). And although it seems sacrilegious to oppose Quevega in her bid for a fifth consecutive win in this race, I'll be backing Une Artiste in the win and place markets with some hope that she can cause an upset. Although still able to win races, Quevega is not at her very best on softer ground, conditions Une Artiste excels in.

Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase

Restless Harry (60.059/1), Hazy Tom (19.5n/a) and Shangani (9.617/2) have posted beter speed figures over fences than the rest of these, but given Hazy Tom's dodgy showing at the Festival last year, I'll be splitting my stake between the other two. A return to his best form would make Restless Harry difficult to beat in this, and Shangani is still open to further progression.

*All odds quoted are a guide and you are recommended to take Betfair SP.

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Cheltenham Festival SmartPlays: Tuesday March 12

"Our Mick really does boast solid form, has had his whole campaign mapped around this race and looks sure to launch a strong challenge..."

Nothing can match the excitement of the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival, and Timeform have chosen three selections to hopefully get you off to a flying start...

You will hear many people peddle the stat that the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a poor race for favourites, but each horse must be assessed on their individual merits and there has never been a contender with stronger credentials than My Tent Or Yours. Nicky Henderson's charge was an ultra-impressive winner of the valuable Betfair Hurdle last month, producing a performance that earned him a Timeform rating of 168p, and he fully deserves his place at the head of the market. To put that huge figure into context, no novice has ever entered the Supreme Novices' Hurdle with such a high rating; in fact, no horse since the ill-fated Golden Cygnet in 1978 has achieved a higher rating in the race. To put it simply, a mere reproduction of the level of form My Tent Or Yours produced in the Betfair Hurdle would almost certainly see him win; you are getting odds-against about an odds-on shot. True, there are a host of unexposed horses in opposition, many of whom remain open to significant improvement, but My Tent Or Yours sets a phenomenally high standard, rated at least a stone superior to his rivals, and represents good value to get you off to the perfect start.

For our final two SmartPlays we will get our teeth stuck into a couple of formidable-looking handicaps, starting with the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase, the third race on the card. Our Mick has been well backed in the lead up to the Festival, unsurprisingly so in light of his tremendous effort as a novice, finishing third in this contest last year. He has only had the one start this term, unshipping Jason Maguire at the third-last fence when vying for the lead with Katenko on Trials Day, but he shaped like a horse that could be ahead of his mark, racing with zest at the head of affairs. The Jonjo O'Neill-trained Merry King is something of a surprising runner, considering he looked set to appear in the National Hunt Chase on Wednesday, but he is a most intriguing participant, bringing some very strong handicap form to the table. He may be capable of throwing down the strongest challenge to Our Mick, but Donald McCain's contender really does boast solid form, has had his whole campaign mapped around this race and looks sure to launch a strong challenge.

Our final SmartPlay comes in the final race on the card as we select The Druids Nephew to take advantage of a lenient-looking handicap mark. It is undoubtedly a concern that he is the only horse that has managed to win for the Andy Turnell yard this year, but he still has enough in his favour to recommend him as a bet. A good sixth in last year's Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, The Druids Nephew has progressed as expected this season, registering some useful efforts over fences, notably when beating Grandioso by 10 lengths at Wincanton last time. Considering it was only a three-runner affair, in which two horses finished, the handicapper, understandably, didn't get carried away with the bare form. However, the subsequent exploits of Grandioso, who has won twice since and has a BHA rating of 145, makes it look like The Druids Nephew could have been let in lightly off a mark of 135. The form of his first start over fences, beaten a short-head by the RSA-bound Hadrian's Approach, also looks like a strong effort on paper and he can hopefully land this final race.

Timeform SmartPlays
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Back My Tent Or Yours @ 2.962/1 in the 13:30 
Back Our Mick @ 8.07/1 in the 14:40
Back The Druids Nephew @ 8.415/2 in the 17:15

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Arkle Chase: Overturn advertises Festival claims

Overturn produced another superb front-running display to keep his unbeaten record over fences intact in the Scottish Arkle Novices' Chase at Musselburgh...

Overturn produced another superb front-running display to keep his unbeaten record over fences intact in the Scottish Arkle Novices' Chase at Musselburgh...

Donald McCain's incredible dual-purpose performer was a long odds-on favourite following impressive rounds of jumping at Sandown and Doncaster, but faced an interesting challenger in the shape of Nicky Henderson's Kempton scorer Tetlami.

Overturn was soon adopting his customary trailblazing tactics and even with a circuit to go it was clear Tetlami was struggling to keep tabs on the nine-year-old.

Jason Maguire continued to wind up the tempo heading down the back, with some fine leaps keeping the pressure on.

By the time he rounded the final turn Overturn was well clear and safely negotiated the remaining obstacles in the straight to score by am emphatic 29 lengths.

Tetlami was the only other finisher, with Asaid refusing to start and rank outside Next Sensation falling when well beaten at the second-last.

Overturn has been cut for the Arkle on the back of that impressive display, now trading at 4.84/1.

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International Racing Festival: Haggas strikes in Turkey

British raiders celebrated further success in Turkey as Master Of Hounds lifted the valuable International Topkapi Trophy at Veliefendi...

Settled in second behind Fast Stars Line, the William Haggas-trained four-year-old stayed-on strongly from the quarter-mile pole in the hands of Christophe Soumillon, with the post coming in time to hold Frankie Dettori on Brian Meehan's Archbishop.

The eyecatcher on his first run for David Simcock was Red Duke, who flew home once switched wide having been dropped in towards the rear early from his wide draw.

On Saturday there were victories at the track for Tom Dascombe with Rhythm Of Light and for Saeed bin Suroor and Dettori through Hunter's Light.

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Turkish Racing Festival: British raiders look to land the spoils

Master of Hounds has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight...

Entries for the International Racing Festival, taking place at Veliefendi on September 1 and 2, have been made, featuring a number of British raiders...

Six races during the Turkish Racing Festival, a quintet of Group 2 events and one Group 1, look to be of most interest at this stage, with British runners entered in all but two of them.

The Group 2 Anatolia Trophy, staged over ten furlongs and won last year by the Mark Johnston-trained Dordogne, has attracted the attention of a pair of smart performers this year in Master of Hounds and Zazou. The former has joined William Haggas after a fruitful campaign in Dubai over the winter, a win in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta being the highlight, and he looks set to continue his globetrotting career by participating here.

Zazou finished fifth in the Dubai World Cup, three places ahead of Master of Hounds, and last month achieved third place at Munich behind Pastorius, the winner producing the second best performance by a three-year-old seen this year.

Other entries to catch the eye in this contest are the Marco Botti-trained pair, Kingsdesire and Marcret, and the Godolphin trio Hunter's Light, Retrieve and Sandagiyr.

Sandagiyr also holds an entry in the Group 2 Topkapi Trophy, where he could be joined by Godolphin teammates Dysphonia and French Navy. Mark Johnston could well hold a strong hand in this event, potentially being represented by Bannock, Fulbright and Van Ellis, whilst the entry of Archbishop, who dead-heated with Trumpet Major in a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood, is also of note.

The aforementioned Dysphonia, a listed winner in Australia who hasn't brought her "A-Game" on her two most recent starts, could alternatively compete in the Group 2 Istanbul Trophy. She may face the likes of Laugh Out Loud, who is best judged on her win in the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham on her penultimate start, and Beatrice Aurore, who had been holding her form well this year prior to getting loose before that start at Ascot last time. Survey, a Group winner in her native Germany, is also worth a second look despite being well below form in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time, as she probably did too much too soon there.

The Group 2 Bosphorus Cup, a race dominated by the British last year with Indian Days winning, Campanologist second, Afsare fourth and Halicarnassus fifth, could well play out in similar fashion this time around, with the Brits responsible for seven of the 12 entries. Headlining the act is Dubai Prince, who recently put up a career-best when winning the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York, finally living up to the promise that he had shown earlier in his career in the process.

Retrieve also holds an entry in this event, as do Calvado Blues and Lost In The Moment. Looking to gatecrash the Godolphin party is Sense of Purpose, from the Dermot Weld yard, and Inspector, who is trained in Turkey and has run in this race for the last four years, winning in 2008 before finishing sixth, eighth and eighth.

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Yorkshire Ebor Festival: The trainers to follow and to avoid

Much of what is perceived to be a shift in a stable's fortunes is little more than random variation and what statisticians term "noise"...

Simon Rowlands adopts a novel approach to identifying trainer form and applies it to trainers likely to have runners at the big York meeting...

There is an old saying "there's more than one way to skin a cat".

It is a saying I, as a cat lover and owner, have always found rather distasteful. But what it is meant to describe in metaphorical terms - that different approaches to a problem can each bring a valid solution - is undoubtedly true where horseracing is concerned.

Take so-called "trainer form". There are nearly as many ways of measuring this factor as there are trainers. And, like trainers, some are good and some are useless.

As with other forms of analysis, a crude approach can often give the impression that a trend exists when that impression is just the product of poor measurement and small samples.

Much of what is perceived to be a shift in a stable's fortunes is little more than random variation and what statisticians term "noise".

Even when a stable "is" in-form or out of form, regression to the mean and the corrective effects of the racing calendar (out-of-form horses end up in weaker races, in-form ones end up facing stiffer tasks) and of the betting market can make the "edge" temporary.

That is not to say that trainer form does not exist or may not be useful. Logically, it must be possible for performance to be affected by things like good or bad training practice, by illness, or by some other extraneous element. The difficulty is in isolating it and using it profitably.

Perhaps the biggest problem is the obsession, in some quarters, with measuring trainer form through winners and winners alone. There is only one winner of a race, but there are many shades of performance within that race, and all are pertinent to how a horse, a trainer or a jockey has fared.

In every race, each horse has a price and an expectation of performance, as well as an actual performance that will usually differ from that expectation. Any measure of trainer form - or anything else within racing - which ignores this is probably cutting corners.

I tried to bear all the above in mind when developing a different approach to tackling trainer form this week.

Each horse's odds in a race imply a performance from it in that race. One way of measuring that performance is by percentage of rivals beaten. For instance, a horse with odds of 1.01 has an expectation of beating very nearly 100% of its rivals. At the other end of the spectrum, a horse with odds of 1000 can be expected to beat few of its rivals (though the figure is as much as 16% in reality).

The difference between market-based expectation and racecourse reality reflects how well or otherwise a trainer's charges are performing compared to public perception (as reflected in those horses' odds).

There are a few tricky elements to the calculations, which I can attempt to explain if questions are posted below, but that is the nub of this approach.

The results can be expressed in a number of ways, and I have favoured the factor by which a trainer's horses have beaten other horses compared to market expectation. A figure higher than 1 is good; a figure lower than 1 is not.

With the four-day Yorkshire Ebor Festival almost upon us, I have identified some positives and negatives among trainers who may have runners there.

POSITIVES: George Margarson's horses have beaten 1.30 times as many rivals as could be expected from their Betfair SPs in the last month (28 runners); Tony Coyle is 1.24 (25 runners); Marcus Tregoning is 1.21 (22 runners); Keith Dalgleish is 1.20 (43 runners); and Roger Varian is 1.19 (69 runners).

In addition, while not scoring quite so highly, the bigger battalions of Sir Michael Stoute (1.14, 64 runners) and Richard Fahey (1.09, 204 runners) have overperformed and may continue to do so.

NEGATIVES: William Muir is 0.81 (46 runners); Amanda Perrett is 0.84 (48 runners); Jim Goldie is 0.85 (73 runners); and Michael Bell is 0.87 (66 runners).

William Jarvis has had only 19 runners in the period under review - a rather small sample - but his figure of 0.51 (his horses have beaten roughly half the number of rivals predicted by the market) was by some way the worst of all trainers surveyed.

Most major stables were neutral, the market, unsurprisingly, neither over nor underestimated the horses' abilities overall.

The market will, in due course, adjust to the others as well. But a lot of the information which drives the above figures is "hidden" from those fixated with winners, or even with winners and placed horses. So there may be a lag which punters can turn to their advantage in the shorter-term.

If nothing else, it is a different way of skinning this particular cat, and a different approach sometimes pays dividends.

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Punchestown: Fabulous entries for five day Festival

News / Timeform / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jewson winner Sir des Champs will run at Punchestown.

“It’s been so far so good with Sir Des Champs so let’s hope he stays sound for Punchestown..."

The entries have been announced for the first two days of the 2012 Punchestown Festival and a whole array of stars look set to line up at Ireland's flagship National Hunt meeting...

Wednesday's feature, the Punchestown Gold Cup, has attracted 32 entries, compared to 14 last year, and a fantastic contest is in store.

There are 10 entries from Britain including Sir Alex Ferguson's What A Friend and Aerial from Paul Nicholls' stable. Meanwhile actor Jimmy Nesbitt's Ryanair Chase winner Riverside Theatre is one of three engaged from Nicky Henderson's yard along with Cheltenham Gold Cup fourth Burton Port and Quantitativeeasing.

The 2010 Punchestown Gold Cup winner Planet Of Sound could represent Philip Hobbs alongside Captain Chris, who is on course for a visit to Ireland, while Donald McCain has engaged the 2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs and Charlie Hall Chase hero Weird Al.

A strong home team include last year's winner Follow The Plan and the exciting novice First Lieutenant, who could carry the colours of Michael O'Leary's Gigginstown House Stud in the championship event.

The seven-year-old, who finished second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, is also entered in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase on Tuesday, on April 24, but the brilliant novice Sir Des Champs - winner of Cheltenham's Jewson Novices' Chase - is likely to carry the Gigginstown colours in that race.

"If all goes well and both are sound on the day then Sir Des Champs would go for the Champion Novice Chase on the first day of the meeting," said Eddie O'Leary, racing manager to Gigginstown House Stud.

"I'm not saying he definitely will, but First Lieutenant could go for the Gold Cup. We've kept the two of them apart all year and I think we will still try and keep them apart.

"It's been so far so good with Sir Des Champs so let's hope he stays sound for Punchestown.

"It was a fantastic run by First Lieutenant at Cheltenham and we've been very happy with him. He was beaten by a very good horse that day and perhaps the ground was a bit too soft for him over there."

The Gigginstown colours are also set to be carried in the Punchestown Gold Cup by Quito De La Roque, who looked a hugely exciting prospect before disappointing in the Lexus Chase on December 28.

"All being well Quito will go for the Gold Cup and he's very, very well," said O'Leary.

"We were all very disappointed the last day when he got beaten but he was sick afterwards.

"Hopefully we'll see him back to his best again at Punchestown."

Trainer Noel Meade revealed today that Realt Dubh, who finished fifth in the two-mile Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham on his only start this season, is set to step up in trip for the Punchestown Gold Cup.

"I think Realt Dubh will run in the Punchestown Gold Cup over three miles and one furlong," said Meade.

"I don't know if the trip will bring out improvement because last year when he got beat in the Drinmore Novice Chase I worried that he didn't get two and a half miles, but then he won the Powers Gold Cup over two and a half.

"I just think two miles is too short for him and there is no two and a half mile race at Punchestown so the three mile and one furlong race is the one he will go for.

"That's what the plan is at the moment anyway. But if it was really heavy ground he would probably go for the Champion Chase over two miles at Punchestown.

"It was his first run for a long time in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham and he ran OK. He didn't run in the Webster Cup at Navan on Saturday because of the ground."

See top racing at some of the UK's premier tracks free with Betfair and Jockey Club racecourses...

With Betfair sponsoring what promises to be an informative jumps card at Haydock on Saturday, Timeform cast an early glance over the three televised races and hopefully point you toward some winners......

Camelot, favourite for the 2000 Guineas and Derby, is among Aidan O'Brien's 24 entries for the Dante Stakes at York on May 17......

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Cheltenham Festival Results: Thursday March 15

Results & Reviews / Editor / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Get all the day three results here

All the in-play and ante-post highs and lows on day two of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, including Timeform in-running analysis...

The Jewson Novices Steeplechase
Winner: Sir Des Champs
Betfair Starting Price: [4.7]
Antepost High of Winner: [30.0]
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: Sir Des Champs matched at [5.52]; Champion Court matched at [2.0]

Sir Des Champs demonstrated a combination of speed and stamina to land the opening race on Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival, landing the Jewson Chase from the gallant Champion Court in second. Champion Court took the field along in the early stages with Zaynar just in behind the leader. Sir Des Champs also raced relatively prominently with Peddlers Cross making his way around the inside. As they turned for home, Champion Court was still travelling well at the head of affairs but Sir Des Champs was looming up in behind, with the majority of other rivals beaten, including the disappointing Peddlers Cross. Sir Des Champs jumped the last alongside Champion Court and stormed up the hill with ahead of his main rival. For Non Stop finished back in third.

Pertemps Final
Winner: Cape Tribulation
Betfair Starting Price: [21.86]
Antepost High of Winner: [50.0]
Notable In-Running Highs and Lows: Cape Tribulation backed at [29.0], Cantlow traded at [2.12] in-running and Catch Me at [3.0]

Cape Tribulation finished best of all to land the Pertemps Final, battling on well to deny Catch Me and Cantlow inside the final furlong. Buena Vista took the field along in the early stages with Palace Jester for company, whilst the likes of Sergeant Guibs and Our Father were held up. With a circuit to go, Palace Jester and Buena Vista remained at the head of affairs with Kayf Aramis just in behind the leaders and travelling comfortably. As the field turned for home, Buena Vista quickly faded out of contention and Kayf Aramis took over with the emerging Cantlow but Cape Tribulation loomed up, looking the most likely danger to the leading group. Cape Tribulation found plenty for pressure inside the closing stages, and battled all the way to the line, holding off Catch Me, who finished well in second.

Sir Des Champs maintained his unbeaten record for Willie Mullins with a clear-cut victory in the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival......

Day two of the Cheltenham Festival belonged to Nicky Henderson, who saddled four of the seven winners including Finian's Rainbow in the Champion Chase. Timeform look back at the action and reveal their provisional performance ratings for the winners......

Finian's Rainbow continued a magical afternoon for trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Barry Geraghty as he landed the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Day three Festival Yankee

Daily Tipping / Rory Delargy / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Rory land his day three Yankee?

"Big Buck's faces his stiffest test yet in his bid for a fourth World Hurdle, but that's no reason to believe that the champion is vulnerable and, while he might provide in-running fun, he will surely put his rivals to the sword."

It's day three of the Festival and Rory Delargy is continuing his bid to land a lucrative, four leg Betfair multiple...

Jewson Novices' Chase - 13:30

With questions over Peddlers Cross' preparation for this, and with Sir des Champs arguably in need of a stiffer test, this looks a good opportunity for the exciting Cristal Bonus. He was hugely impressive last time at Kempton, particularly with the accuracy of his jumping. Going left handed isn't a problem, and he has plenty in his favour.

Pertemps Final - 14:05

All eyes here will be on the veteran Buena Vista, racing at his eighth Festival and going for a third consecutive win in this contest, a feat only previously achieved by the legendary Willie Wumpkins. His form this season gives him little chance, but he's clearly been trained to peak for one race, and the drying ground (assuming it hasn't been overwatered) will suit him ideally. Another major positive is the jockey booking - claimer ridden for both previous wins here, he has the services of the excellent 10 lb claimer Tom Bellamy, and it seems to me the jockey has also been saved for this race in order to retain that full allowance. He impressed with his maturity when guiding Swing Bill to victory here earlier in the season, and can repeat the dose here.

Ryanair Chase - 14:40

A hugely competitive and high-class field have justified the Ryanair's status, and even the biggest curmudgeon wouldn't begrudge its place as a true championship race now. I've long been a fan of Rubi Light, and while his ante-post odds have been unappealing for some time, he's finally drifted to a realistic price. He hasn't needed to improve on his 2011 third to win twice this season, but there are reasons to believe that he has a bigger performance in him, and I believe conditions will hold no fear for this bold jumper.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle - 15:20

Big Buck's faces his stiffest test yet in his bid for a fourth World Hurdle, but that's no reason to believe that the champion is particularly vulnerable, and while he might just provide some in-running fun, he will surely put today's rivals, of whom Smad Place is the most intriguing, to the sword. If you want to bet in the "without" market, then Alan King's grey, who is totally unexposed as a stayer, looks a decent price.

Byrne Group Plate -16:00

Niceonefrankie, on a roll for Venetaia Williams, has been my long-term fancy for this race, and I think he is still ahead of the handicapper under a 5 lb penalty for a recent win at Newbury. At much bigger prices, I think Life of A Luso will surprise a few. He ran poorly when I tipped him at Ascot earlier in the year, but his form otherswise reads well, and he's exactly the type of unsexy horse who could go off at ridiculous odds before making the frame.

Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Chase - 16:40

My pair against the field in this tricky finale are Becauseicouldntsee (an excellent second in the National Hunt Chase here in 2010) and Brackloon High, who jumps well for a novice, and has the assistance of Richard Harding, who has won this race on both You're Special and Ballabriggs.

Rory's Yankee
13:30 Cristal Bonus
14:05 Buena Vista
14:40 Rubi Light
16:00 Niceonefrankie

Back Rory's Yankee here

It's Day Three of the Cheltenham Festival and Timeform's SmartPlays team bring you another three recommended bets, headed by a top-class chaser from the in-form yard of Nicky Henderson......

With three tricky handicaps to navigate the Cheltenham Placepot could pay well this afternoon as Timeform's Joe Szekeres heads to Prestbury Park to offer his permutation......

Nick Shiambouros explains why he's backing a certain gelding to complete a Ryanair hat-trick on Thursday afternoon......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Day three Festival Yankee

Daily Tipping / Rory Delargy / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Rory land his day three Yankee?

"Big Buck's faces his stiffest test yet in his bid for a fourth World Hurdle, but that's no reason to believe that the champion is vulnerable and, while he might provide in-running fun, he will surely put his rivals to the sword."

It's day three of the Festival and Rory Delargy is continuing his bid to land a lucrative, four leg Betfair multiple...

Jewson Novices' Chase - 13:30

With questions over Peddlers Cross' preparation for this, and with Sir des Champs arguably in need of a stiffer test, this looks a good opportunity for the exciting Cristal Bonus. He was hugely impressive last time at Kempton, particularly with the accuracy of his jumping. Going left handed isn't a problem, and he has plenty in his favour.

Pertemps Final - 14:05

All eyes here will be on the veteran Buena Vista, racing at his eighth Festival and going for a third consecutive win in this contest, a feat only previously achieved by the legendary Willie Wumpkins. His form this season gives him little chance, but he's clearly been trained to peak for one race, and the drying ground (assuming it hasn't been overwatered) will suit him ideally. Another major positive is the jockey booking - claimer ridden for both previous wins here, he has the services of the excellent 10 lb claimer Tom Bellamy, and it seems to me the jockey has also been saved for this race in order to retain that full allowance. He impressed with his maturity when guiding Swing Bill to victory here earlier in the season, and can repeat the dose here.

Ryanair Chase - 14:40

A hugely competitive and high-class field have justified the Ryanair's status, and even the biggest curmudgeon wouldn't begrudge its place as a true championship race now. I've long been a fan of Rubi Light, and while his ante-post odds have been unappealing for some time, he's finally drifted to a realistic price. He hasn't needed to improve on his 2011 third to win twice this season, but there are reasons to believe that he has a bigger performance in him, and I believe conditions will hold no fear for this bold jumper.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle - 15:20

Big Buck's faces his stiffest test yet in his bid for a fourth World Hurdle, but that's no reason to believe that the champion is particularly vulnerable, and while he might just provide some in-running fun, he will surely put today's rivals, of whom Smad Place is the most intriguing, to the sword. If you want to bet in the "without" market, then Alan King's grey, who is totally unexposed as a stayer, looks a decent price.

Byrne Group Plate -16:00

Niceonefrankie, on a roll for Venetaia Williams, has been my long-term fancy for this race, and I think he is still ahead of the handicapper under a 5 lb penalty for a recent win at Newbury. At much bigger prices, I think Life of A Luso will surprise a few. He ran poorly when I tipped him at Ascot earlier in the year, but his form otherswise reads well, and he's exactly the type of unsexy horse who could go off at ridiculous odds before making the frame.

Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Chase - 16:40

My pair against the field in this tricky finale are Becauseicouldntsee (an excellent second in the National Hunt Chase here in 2010) and Brackloon High, who jumps well for a novice, and has the assistance of Richard Harding, who has won this race on both You're Special and Ballabriggs.

Rory's Yankee
13:30 Cristal Bonus
14:05 Buena Vista
14:40 Rubi Light
16:00 Niceonefrankie

Back Rory's Yankee here

It's Day Three of the Cheltenham Festival and Timeform's SmartPlays team bring you another three recommended bets, headed by a top-class chaser from the in-form yard of Nicky Henderson......

With three tricky handicaps to navigate the Cheltenham Placepot could pay well this afternoon as Timeform's Joe Szekeres heads to Prestbury Park to offer his permutation......

Nick Shiambouros explains why he's backing a certain gelding to complete a Ryanair hat-trick on Thursday afternoon......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Day two Festival Yankee

Daily Tipping / Rory Delargy / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Simonsig makes up the first leg of Rory's second day tips

"Simonsig wouldn't be the strongest of stayers at 21f, but plenty of speedy horses have taken this over the years, notably Istabraq, and there's no doubt that he's the class act here."

Rory Delargy takes a second crack at landing a big paying Festival four-timer - read his selections here

Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase - 13:30
The National Hunt Chase sees Harry The Viking topping the ratings, but while I respect his chance on paper, I can't help feeling Paul Nicholls (who has a poor record with fancied runners in this race) is running the wrong horse - this would be the ideal race for Join Together who will find the RSA too sharp in my opinion. Without him, the race looks very open, and the pair who appeal most to me are Alfie Spinner and Teaforthree, both of whom look to have the right sort of profile for the contest.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle - 14:05
Nicky Henderson disappointed many people by switching Simonsig to this from the Supreme, but those punters should get some compensation here. Simonsig wouldn't be the strongest of stayers at 21f, but plenty of speedy horses have taken this over the years, notably Istabraq, and there's no doubt that he's the class act here.

RSA Chase- 14:40
Like Simonsig, Grands Crus promises to be even better at a shorter trip than this 3m, but similarly he looks a cut above his rivals here, and is a much more assured jumper than either of his main rivals to boot. He looks the day's best bet.

Queen Mother Champion Chase - 15:20
Sizing Europe is definitely the one to beat in the Champion Chase, but I believe that Finian's Rainbow is capable of toppling him. The key to this race is who wants to grab the race by the scruff of the neck, and if the others allow Sizing Europe to bowl along, they won't catch him. I'm hoping that the excellent Barry Geraghty will be wise to this, and a decisive move from him down the hill may well pay dividends.

Coral Cup - 16:00
Balgarry is unsure to stay a stiff 21f (are you seeing the day's theme), but is well ahead of his mark as he showed when winning easily at Newbury, and a 5lb penalty for that easy win won't stop him. He won't need to ridden so aggressively, and looks worth chancing over the trip. I've had a small interest in Megastar earlier in the week, and very much respect his chances, although the value about him has dried up a little.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 16:40
Vendor looks the standout handicap bet of the week, and is impossible to oppose despite there being a smattering of interesting runners. He would have finished fourth in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres at Auteuil but for a last-flight fall, and to show how well-in he is, the fifth placed Kapga de Cerisy (who would have been at least 10 lengths behind) now has to concede him 5 lb. One to note at bigger odds is the bottom weight Jackies Solitaire, who has been campaigned with handicaps in mind.

Champion Bumper - 17:15
Of the Irish, it's the experience of Moscow Mannon and Clonbanan Lad which is preferred to the potential of the Mullins pair, while New Year's Eve has a turn of foot to dream of. John Ferguson's gelding needs to prove he can do it at a galloping track, though, and I prefer the claims of Royal Guardsman, who has garnered plenty of experience, and was impressive at Ascot last time.

Rory's Yankee
14:05 Simonsig
14:40 Grands Crus
15:20 Finian's Rainbow
16:40 Vendor

Back's Rory's Yankee here

Day Two of the Cheltenham Festival and the Timeform SmartPlays team highlight two selections from the Prestbury Park venue alongside one SmartPlay on Kempton's evening card......

With four large-field races unlikely to allow today's Cheltenham placepot dividend to fall below yesterday's £76.20 return, Timeform's Adam Brookes attempts to slalom all six legs and land a mountainous windfall......

The 2010 winner Big Zeb and 2011 victor Sizing Europe clash again in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham on Wednesday. Timeform give you their opinion on those two runners, and the rest of the field......

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In-running Week: Cheltenham Festival special

Results & Reviews / Neil Munro / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pure class - Barry Geraghty celebrates riding Sprinter Sacre to victory

"Montbazon travels well and keeps finding. But he has a tendency to make a mistake at the last."

An impatient Neil Munro considers some of the stars of day one at the Cheltenham Fesitval and explains how we should bet on them in future...

Maybe I should wait before analysing the Cheltenham form but, on day one, there were some horses that confirmed thoughts that I had going into the Festival.

Montbazon

Alan King was very upbeat before the Supreme Novice Hurdle, setting out that Montbazon had been working very well at home but admitting that he may not be good enough. So it proved with Montbazon finishing fourth behind Cinders And Ashes. However, he showed enough of the qualities that means I will be attempting to trade on him in the future. Montbazon is a battler who travels well and keeps finding. My main issue with him, and the reason that has brought about his last two defeats, is his propensity to make a mistake at the last. I believe this has cost him at Newbury, and in the Supreme. But because of his courageous qualities he is definitely worth a back to lay policy.

Back Montbazon pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at one quarter the matched price. I would also put up a small speculative back bet at a big price.

Sprinter Sacre

Nicky Henderson's six-year-old was not as keen as before. He didn't trade high in the run - in fact, he didn't break evens - but he still took a while to settle. He is pure class but he remains on the list because his keeness could yet make him an interesting option for in-running bettors.

The Package

How good are the Pipes at getting a horse back to his best after a long layoff? Some mornings I feel I could benefit from time in the swimming pool that they use to get horses fit. The Package went to Cheltenham after being off the race track for over 450 days but ran superbly well to finish fourth in the 3m Handicap Chase on Day One of the Festival 2012. Historically, he's covered the ground in an eye-catching fashion from off the pace, and did so again before just fading. He always runs well at Cheltenham and in his last four defeats there he has traded [2.1], [2.1], [2.0] and [2.2]. He might go for the National but his two runs at Aintree, including one in the National, have both been poor.

Away from Aintree, back The Package pre-race at BSP and then lay out 150% of your stake at half the matched price.

The Champion Hurdle

This was a fantastic race and fascinating to try and dissect. Rock On Ruby travelled superbly well, as he has done previously and kept on finding up the hill, worth remembering for the future. Overturn is just as game as they come, and this was a career best performance. Hurricane Fly just didn't pick up and it will be interesting if an explanation comes to light. The race also featured two fascinating characters from an in-running point of view. Oscars Well again travelled well, didn't quite hit half his BSP in-running and again didn't take the last perfectly. To me he just needs to step up in trip but he does tend to trade low in the run. Just ahead of him, Zarkandar did his best work late on, to finish fifth. Look through all his runs and he does keep finding but, while campaigned over this kind of trip, I believe he will always trade bigger in the run.

Recommended
Rock On Ruby - Back to lay.
Overturn - Back to lay.
Oscars Well - Back to lay over 2m2f or further.
Zarkander - Lay to Back over 2m.

Sprinter Sacre has been given a Timeform master rating of 174p following his brilliant win in the Arkle Chase on the opening day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, making him the most highly rated novice chaser of the modern era......

Timeform look back on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, providing provisional ratings for the winners.......

Rock On Ruby ran out a most impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham under Noel Fehily......

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Cheltenham Festival Tips: The in-play guide to day one

Daily Tipping / Graham Cunningham / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Al Ferof - a value price in the Arkle?

"I'm not convinced Hurricane Fly has as much in hand of Binocular as the prices suggest and that makes Nicky Henderson's gelding an appealing back-to-lay alternative to the jolly."

It's the biggest betting meeting of the year and the wildest four days of in-play betting in the calendar. Many horses will trade short and lose over the next four days and a select handful will touch huge odds before winning. The right strategy will bring profit from both groups. Can Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham crack the code on day one?

Yes, the hype gets tiresome nowadays and it can all end in anti-climax if you go in under prepared.

However, there is still nothing like a Cheltenham Festival where otherwise sane and sober souls spray money like counterfeit and sup Guinness like it's going out of fashion.

My brief this week is simple. "Keep it tight and get straight to the point" is the motto. So let's try to squeeze this quart into a pint pot.

13:30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle
No clear pecking order has emerged, hence the wide open market, but Steps To Freedom, Montbazon and Trifolium have much more to recommend them than most.

Steps To Freedom boasts impressive Flat speed and has made a sweet transition to hurdling, while Montbazon is a high cruiser who is improving fast and Trifoleum has thrived in Ireland with an aggressive style of racing on the pace.

Splitting this trio alone is tough and, on balance, this looks one for small stakes.

However, it goes against the grain not to try and get the week off to a flyer so I'll take my chances with Montbazon and Trifolium in the belief that both are capable of being in the mix and trading fairly short when the heat is turned up off the final bend.

14:05 Arkle Chase
Ah, the first of around six Festival "bankers." Sprinter Sacre could be the next superstar of the two mile division, but I'm not heading to this Festival to take odds-on when the horse in question faces a dangerous rival like Al Ferof.

The tactics here look predictable, with Cue Card bowling along in front and Sprinter Sacre help up taking a powerful grip.

But if there is juice in this market it lies with Al Ferof as he bids to improve an excellent Cheltenham record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit [5.0] and bigger in the run given that he's unlikely to cruise like Sprinter Sacre.

And I wouldn't be surprised to see him trade a great deal shorter up the hill for the simple reason that he is a high-class novice who jumps soundly and comes up this hill with tremendous effect when on song.

15:20 Champion Hurdle
Ah, the second of the "bankers" of the week. Last year's winner Hurricane Fly is clear on Timeform and has the beating of most of these based on his 2011 success and a runaway reappearance win at Leopardstown.

But I'm not convinced he has as much in hand of Binocular as the prices suggest and that makes Nicky Henderson's gelding an appealing back-to-lay alternative to the jolly.

Binocular was the one horse missing from last year's race and, although there have been bumps in the road since his highly impressive 2010 win here, there were clear hints that he's back on track again at Wincanton last time.

I'm keener on Rock On Ruby than Zarkandar of the Nicholls pair, while the freewheeling Overturn has clear back-to-lay potential if allowed his own way, but I can see Binocular and Hurricane Fly running to the last together here.

And the reigning champ might just face his sternest battle for a long while if the former champ truly is back to his best.

16:00 Cross Country Chase
History suggests you need to be Irish with experience of this eccentric track here.

Scotsirish is the fastest horse on show - and his pace could be decisive if he truly stays the trip - but that can't be guaranteed and I'm backing last year's winner Sizing Australia for the simple reason that he has an ideal profile and running style to reward such a strategy.

Scotsirish will creep in rear, while Uncle Junior and Maljimar are also liable to be held up and course specialist Garde Champetre tends to be compromised by a tendency to hit flat spots nowadays.

By contrast, Sizing Australia is perfectly suited to bowling along on the pace to maximise his fine jumping. He was deadly accurate 12 months ago and if he repeats the dose then the chances of him trading at under [3.0] before the holdup merchants come to call are very strong indeed.

16:40 Mares' Hurdle
Some people love the fact that this has turned into a benefit for Quevega, while others feel frustrated that this fairly new addition to the Fez means she can avoid going in against the best males like Big Buck's.

Count me firmly among the latter group and rather than try and get a very solid odds-on chance beaten it's well worth seeking out a "without the favourite" market here.

Kentford Grey Lady is one with clear best of the rest potential. A notably smooth traveller, she's far less exposed than the vast majority of this field and another career best effort here could put her right in the mix.

Recommended Bets
Back Montbazon and Trifolium in the 13:30 and lay off at [4.0] in running
Back Al Ferof in the 14:30 and lay off at [2.5] in running
Back Binocular in the 15:20 and lay off at [3.0] in running
Back Sizing Australia in the 16:00 and lay off at [3.0] in running
Back Kentford Grey Lady each way in the "without Quevega" market

Can Hurricane Fly defend his Champion Hurdle crown on the opening day of Cheltenham 2012? Read on to get Timeform's thoughts on the big race on Tuesday......

In the first of a four-parter, Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gives you his guide to the opening day of Cheltenham 2012.......

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch looks ahead to Cheltenham Gold Cup day......

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Cheltenham Festival 2012: A working person's guide

The Cheltenham Festival / Jack Houghton / 10 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sprinter Sacre may be odds-on, but he will struggle to win the Arkle

"When you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently."

When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, not everyone has the time for hours of form study, but that doesn't mean you can't have a profitable few days. Just follow these simple rules, writes Jack Houghton.

There was a time when I could sit for hours, pouring over Festival form, and argue I was working. Then I left Betfair. My new office has no television, no Racing Posts, no internet access to any sites of interest, and no-one stopping-by my desk to ask if Hurricane Fly is under-priced in the Champion Hurdle.

This year, as for the last five, my Cheltenham Festival experience will be the same as that of most racing fans: I'll place my bets in the morning and go to work, hoping I can shield myself from any results long enough to watch a recording of the action unfold in the evening, as if live. Provided the flashing box under my telly hasn't instead recorded nine episodes of Bob the Builder, as it did last year, that is.

The problem is, that with so much good racing, and so little time, it's hard to properly assess what those morning bets should be. Thankfully, over the last few years, I've adopted some approaches that allow good decision making, even with limited time.

First, I rely heavily on speed ratings. Horses who have not managed to post a fast time are unlikely to cope with the frenetic and sustained pace that characterises most Festival races. I use my own ratings, but any commercially-available speed ratings will do. Find the best speed figure achieved by any horse in the field, and then eliminate any other horse yet to run within 90 per cent of that figure. It's amazing how quickly this reduces the field to a manageable number of more likely contenders and, more importantly, how often it gets rid of severely underpriced "fancies" who go on to bomb.

Second, I eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and not been placed. If I have more time, I use Timeform ratings and instead eliminate any horse who has run at Cheltenham and, in so doing, has failed to return a rating within 10lbs of its best. In each of the last six years, between 80 and 90 per cent of all Festival winners have demonstrated Cheltenham form in this way, or are at least making their track debut.

Third, I take the Betfair SP. Even a cursory glance at past results will tell you that this will outperform anything else available in the market and, unless you are a much better predictor of market movement than me, it will also likely outperform those who try to play in the market directly.

Fourth, I often split my stake and place more than one bet in a race. This might mean backing more than one horse and laying another in the place market (particularly those short-priced ones who have failed the tests above). By spreading your risk, you might reduce your chance of a big win, but you also reduce your chance of a series of crippling defeats. And, particularly relevant for the evening armchair punter, you know that, in most races, you will have something to shout for in the closing stages of most races.

Form purists might argue that these approaches may arbitrarily eliminate a horse from your reckoning that is worth considering - and they'd be absolutely right - but when you have an hour in the morning to get your kid to nursery, get your bets on, and get to work, you need to use your time efficiently.

A working example - the Arkle Chase:

Al Ferof has posted the best speed rating of the field, and only Blackstairmountain, Cue Card, Menorah and Sprinter Sacre get within 90 per cent of it.

Neither Blackstairmountain nor Sprinter Sacre have run within 10lbs of their best, leaving us with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah as the most likely winners.

I'll be having a point on each, as well as laying the odds-on Sprinter Sacre for two points - all at Betfair SP.

Whether they be emotional or financial, everyone has their own favourite Gold Cup recollections and Timeform's Adam Brookes is no different......

Invictus has been ruled out of the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

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In-Running Week: Neil Munro's Cheltenham Festival guide

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Establishing how well handicapped Irish challengers are at Cheltenham is still a tricky business, but Timeform's Irish team are here to shed some light on the chances of the leading handicap hopes......
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Cheltenham Festival 2012: Ferdy Murphy sweet on his entries

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ferdy Murphy

"Graham came in to oversee the schooling of Divers this morning and was very pleased with him."

Ferdy Murphy feels he has another strong team heading towards the Cheltenham Festival next week.

The Middleham handler usually pulls one rabbit out of the hat each year in the Cotswolds, with Divers landing the Centenary Novices' Chase 12 months ago.

Festival regular Kalahari King will have another go in the Ryanair Chase, having finished second last year, but it is in the handicaps Murphy looks strong.

Divers will return, this year in the Byrne Group Plate, and will have the assistance of Tony McCoy in the saddle with stable jockey Graham Lee injured.

De Boitron finished fourth in the Grand Annual last year and has that race as his aim again, while the unexposed novice Going Wrong has the race won by Divers, now known as the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase, as his target.

"Graham came in to oversee the schooling of Divers this morning and was very pleased with him," said Murphy.

"At the same time Lucy Alexander popped De Boitron over a few fences and he jumped really well, too.

"Those two are going really well and must have decent chances. They've both run well at the meeting before and they love good ground.

"Davy Russell has been booked for Going Wrong and I think he must also have a chance.

"I've got a lot of horses who want good ground and two weeks ago it looked like I was going to be able to run them all and then the rain came again.

"We're looking forward to it though, and hopefully we'll come back with a winner."

...........
Click HERE to get the latest issue of the Timeform Black Book, featuring ratings for all 27 Cheltenham Festival races, plus those for Imperial Cup weekend!

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

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RSA Chase: Invictus a Festival doubt

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Invictus winning at Ascot.

"Invictus has a problem and at this stage there has to be a doubt as to whether he would run..."

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham...

Trained by Alan King, the six-year-old was last seen when beating Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot last month, and had been trading at around [7.0] for the RSA.

However, he has drifted out to [21.0] for the race after King said that he has suffered "a problem".

The Barbury Castle handler told www.alankingracing.co.uk: "We will monitor the situation over the next 24 hours.

"Though I have confirmed the entry for the RSA Chase, Invictus has a problem and at this stage there has to be a doubt as to whether he would run.

"We will keep everybody informed".

Grands Crus currently trades as the [3.5] favourite for the RSA, with Bobs Worth ([5.0]) and Sir Des Champs ([6.2]) next best in the market.

Grumeti, stablemate of Invictus, has been declared as "back on track" for the Triumph Hurdle.

Currently trading at [7.0] for the Triumph Hurdle, Grumeti gave connections cause for concern when spreading a plate on Monday.

But King reported: "It's good news - Grumeti was perfectly sound after cantering, so we are back on track.

"Normal service has been resumed and it's all systems go for the Triumph."
...........
Click HERE to get the latest issue of the Timeform Black Book, featuring ratings for all 27 Cheltenham Festival races, plus those for Imperial Cup weekend!

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......

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