In-Running Week: Coin it in at Kempton

"When Hidden Coin has led he has won five and been placed on the other occasion in six runs. The four times he has not got to the front he has been unplaced."

Neil Munro goes dual-purpose in the search for angles this week.

Unless you are a trader who specialises in either National Hunt, all-weather or turf Flat racing then, like myself, you are involved in an ever-evolving and changing racing world. 

Take this time of year, we have just seen three magnificent days racing at Aintree, which came four weeks after Cheltenham, we have also had the culmination of the all-weather winter season, and now we are two months away from Royal Ascot. My head hurts!

But Aintree uncovered a few more horses for the database.

Horses on the Database

Sire De Grugy - Gary Moore has had a decent National Hunt season and Sire de Grugy has helped towards that in a very small way with a couple of wins in novice chases. Sent up to Aintree for a tough little race he travelled supremely well before emptying out very quickly and then making a bad mistake at the last. Sire De Grugy has done this before, over hurdles and fences so he is an interesting player for the rest of this season and next. His stats are strong so I am looking at the positive angles when trading with him. He has traded at half his BSP on 15 of his 16 career wins and he has a win ratio of 38%.

Back Sire De Grugy pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only at half BSP in the run; then put some low odds-on in-running offers but in the main I want SDG to be my main winning position.

Third Intention - Colin Tizzard's six-year-old has run six cracking races in seven efforts over fences but the truth of the matter is that he has yet to win since going chasing. In the Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree he put up another fantastic effort to go down by six lengths in second to Dynaste. Third Intention is a very strong-travelling type so I didn't play in the Mildmay because of Dynaste, who obviously moves and jumps well in his races. Despite Third Intention trading 2.34 in the run (BSP of 19.5), I still believe I made the right decision. But I will be trading on him in the future.

Back Third Intention pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP in the run. Depending on the company that he is pitched in at I will then put up some further offers to lay at around 3.0 and odds-on as he has struggled to win over fences.

Super Duty - I have a lot of time for Donald McCain's seven-year-old and despite what looked a disappointing run in the above-mentioned Mildmay I will still want to trade on him in the future. I know a lot of the Cheltenham form has held up at Aintree but I think Super Duty had such a tough race in the Kim Muir that this came too soon and that is why his jumping became erratic once he was put under pressure. He is a natural front runner who has plenty of battling qualities and this will come to the fore next season, maybe in some staying handicaps. To paraphrase David Soul, don't give up on him!

Back Super Duty pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP in the run in handicap company. I would then put up further offers at odds on to create a green book. If pitched in higher I would get out double my stake at half BSP and leave it at that. 

Tanks For That - Nicky Henderson's ten-year-old enjoyed the return to better ground at Aintree but also proved that he is hard to win with. He got to the front, looked around, got taken on for the lead and then showed renewed enthusiasm with a final effort before finishing second. Tanks For That has been known to idle in front and I do think connections try to deliver him late but whatever they do with him he is tough to win with.

Back Tanks For That over trips around two miles on good or good to soft ground pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half the BSP in the run with further offers at odds-on.

Something for the weekend

Hiddon Coin (Kempton Saturday 14:40) - Keep an eye out if David O'Meara's three-year-old goes for the conditions race at Kempton this coming Saturday. He has proved that getting to the front is what it is all about with this son of Red Clubs. When he has led he has won five and been placed on the other occasion in six runs. The four times he has not got to the front he has been unplaced. So look at the draw, look for other pace, and see if he is likely to get a chance to dictate.

Broxbourne (Doncaster Saturday 14:55) - Mark Johnston's four-year-old filly may have already run by the time we get to the weekend as she has entries at Catterick today but wherever she turns up next she is a game girl who keeps finding, even in defeat. Last time out she stayed on but her run got interrupted but previously she has traded double her BSP four times in five wins so try and back her high in the run if you fancy her.

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In-Running Week: Cheltenham Special!

Zarkandar is a horse who just grinds it out and keeps finding and because of this tends to trade bigger in the run in victory and defeat...

With less than two weeks to go until the racing feast that is The Cheltenham Festival I thought I would put forward some in-running nibbles to try on the day, starting this week with the main feature races on each of the first two days...

Tuesday

Arkle - The starting point for trading in this race has to be around Overturn and Simonsig, and whether Donald McCain's stable sweetheart (he obviously adores this horse) can get into his familiar rhythm at the front end. I am sure he will be up there, but whether he will have an easy time of it is very debateable with Nicky Henderson already suggesting that Simonsig could challenge the early pace (and he is comfortable with any tactics) as well as Avrika Ligeonniere and a couple of bigger price runners challenging. With this in mind I am going to try and lay Overturn in the run to try and obtain a bit of value, as well as the fact that I do not think he will win. If Oscars Well runs in this I will attempt to trade on him with the way he travels and the fact a strong pace should help him travel well into the race late.

Lay Overturn in the run at around 3.10 in the run, with a further offer up at 2.10.
Back Oscars Well pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at ½ the BSP with further offers around 4.00 and 2.50 to have the field winning.

Champion Hurdle - For me this race revolves around some strong travelling types and the gritty determination of Zarkandar. Hurricane Fly, Rock On Ruby, Binocular (or My Tent Or Yours if plans changed) all move with eye-catching ease and of the three the stats back up playing on Rock On Ruby, although I will also have a small play on Binocular because of the likely value. Meanwhile Zarkandar is a horse who just grinds it out and keeps finding and because of this tends to trade bigger in the run in victory and defeat. The play on Zarkandar is based on not fancying the horse, but if you do, just split your stakes, backing ½ pre-race at BSP, and the other ½ in the run at double BSP.

Lay Zarkandar pre-race and then put up a back offer in the run at 2.5 times the BSP to cover your liability.
Back Rock On Ruby pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at ¼ the BSP with a further offer to create a green book at just above evens.
Back Binocular pre-race at BSP for small and then lay out your stake at ½ the BSP with further offers around 2.50 and 1.50 to create a green book.
RSA Chase - Let us keep this simple. I don't fancy Dynaste so I am looking for some value to trade on and in Super Duty I have a likely front runner who will trade short in the run and Boston Bob who will be delivered late and will trade both high and low during the race.

Back Super Duty pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake only at ½ the matched price with further offers up around evens to create a green book but with Super Duty still winning plenty.
Back Boston Bob for small stakes pre-race at BSP, and then back it at both 2x and 4x BSP in the run for further small stakes. Then lay out your combined stakes, plus a little more at around 2.20 to create a green book.

Champion Chase - Probably the hardest of the four races to try and make a trade in. I think Sprinter Sacre is rock solid, being a horse that travels supremely well and jumps like a stag. Sometimes it is just best to say no.

No play. 

Remember with Cheltenham Festival trades to put them in slightly higher or lower than at other meetings due to the volume of money and the fact that you are trading on a market that is very educated and mature.

Something for the weekend

The Package - He is entered at the weekend in the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and it will be perceived as an attempt to bounce back from a poor run at Warwick earlier in the year but that was on heavy ground which he has never particularly likes. With the ground drying out it could be time to trade on a horse that travels well and normally gets in the shake-up. The Package has traded ½ his BSP in 18 of 24 of his runs and odds-on in 10 of those runs so has the stats and style for a back to lay trade. If he goes to Cheltenham then play on him there as well.

Home Run - If David Pipe sends Home Run to Newbury this weekend for the Greatwood Hurdle then I will be looking to get involved with a horse that tends to drift under pressure at the business end. He put together the five timer earlier in the season so it doesn't always stop him winning but with the weight he is carrying now I am happy that my end position is opposing the horse. I will be backing Home Run for small stakes and then look to lay out my stake at ½ the BSP in the run with further low offers to have the field winning.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.

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In-Running Week: Johnston's colt can Steeler the money in the run

"Because of the way Steeler travels he has already traded big in the run for both his victories so is a player on the In-Running database."

Neil Munro is back with another trio of horses to keep an eye on In-Running, with the focus this week being on those that hit high prices in the run before going on to win...

Back to lay is the stock delivery of an In-Running trader but true financial gains can be made from horses who trade high in the run and go on to win so let us look at a few of those for the rest of the flat season.

Steeler

Mark Johnston has had a fantastic season and there could still be more to come with this son of Raven's Pass if he heads for the Royal Lodge. Connections thought he would win on debut but he showed signs of greenness that day and did so again when he won at Goodwood on his second start. That day he seemed to take an age for the penny to drop but he stayed on strongly late on to take the maiden fairly easily. Steeler showed that he keeps finding when being passed by Dundonnell in the Acomb Stakes but staying on for second and then cemented that view back at Goodwood when picking up a Listed event. Because of the way he travels he has already traded big in the run for both his victories so is a player on the In-Running database.

For the rest of his two year old career (which may only be one run) back Steeler, splitting your stakes with 50% pre-race at Betfair Starting Price (BSP) and 40% at double the BSP in the run, with a further offer to back 10% at 50.049/1 (or bigger). Lay out your combined stake at around 3.02/1 in the run.

Excel Yourself

It isn't often that a front-runner hits high prices when they win, but James Tate's two year old filly has done so twice and I think she is well worth keeping an eye on. She broke her maiden tag over five furlongs at Wolverhampton and was then stepped up to Listed class at Newbury but was unable to get to the front. Dropped down into handicap company last time out over six furlongs Excel Yourself managed to see off all challengers as she kept finding. I do believe that she could struggle off her higher mark but she should become a decent trading horse for a few runs.

Back Excel Yourself for her next three runs, with 80% of your stake at BSP and 20% at double the BSP. If the price allows lay out double your stake at around ¼ the matched price.

La Bacouetteuse

While we are talking about a couple of horses who could hit a high price in the run I thought I would add Iain Jardine's seven year old gelding La Bacouetteuse (I thought La was meant to be feminine but it is a long time since I went to school!!). He tends to be delivered late and because of this he has traded at bigger than double his BSP on four of his five wins. He is quite hard to catch right but he has won three times in seven runs when encountering good to firm ground.

Back La Bacouetteuse when encountering good to firm ground (or when you think he has a good chance of winning) in the run for small stakes at double his BSP. Lay out your stake in the run once matched at around half the BSP.

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In-running Week: Charles Camoin's battling qualities

In-running / Neil Munro / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The sunshine may have gone but the Flat season is here to stay

"The Cheka keeps finding when expected not to so he does tend to trade bigger in the run."

Neil Munro hails the beginning of the flat season and considers the merits of betting in-play on four intriguing runners...

The Flat season is here. Doncaster and Kempton started the ball rolling with some big field challenges. Having had the Lincoln we now go through a couple of weeks of non-descript average racing so I think the authorities still need to work on the narrative of the Flat season. But there was still enough to interest me over the weekend.

Charles Camoin

So often the horses that I research for in-running trading are a little quirky, or don't like to get involved in a battle. So it is nice to talk about Sylvester Kirk's four-year-old gelding who seems to have battling qualities. Charles Camoin has now won three of his eight starts, a good ratio, and proved his scrapping qualities in all of those victories. Indeed, at times he has been pushed along quite early but he has just kept on finding. He won on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton recently but, if you need proof of how he keeps trying, watch his first run of the season last year when second at Sandown. He did everything he could to win that race and proved everything I have seen in him. He just wasn't quite good enough that day. His qualities mean that he trades bigger in the run: [12.21] BSP (42.0 in the run); [13.0] BSP ([6.10]); and [10.43] BSP ([23.0]).

If you believe Charles Camoin has the right conditions, split your back stakes with 50% at BSP and 50% in the run at double the BSP.

Kyllachy Star

This horse is one of many owned by Dr Marwan Koukash, but is it good for the industry that we have these new owners who are willing to invest huge amounts of money? Kyllachy Star was one of four of his runners on Saturday to either win or be placed at odds of 10/1 or bigger. Although the six-year-old hasn't won on his seasonal reappearance, he has run well before and did so again in the spring mile. He likes to be delivered late and normally has a minor turn of foot which can lead to him trading big in the run when he wins. However, this also means he has some low trades as they do try and deliver him as late as possible. We may see him at Chester's May meeting.

Back Kylachy Star over 7-8 furlongs on good or faster ground, splitting your stakes between BSP and double BSP in the run. But leave an order up to lay out your stake at one quarter of your matched price.

The Cheka

This six-year-old won on his first try over six furlongs, coming off a strong pace and confirmed that he runs well on seasonal reappearance. This really does open up other opportunities for connections of The Cheka. He keeps finding when expected not to so he does tend to trade bigger in the run.

If you fancy The Cheka split your back stakes with 50% at BSP and 50% in the run at double the BSP.

Eton Forever

Yet again Roger Varian's lightly-raced five-year-old traded short in the run in the Lincoln without finding what in-running backers expected. Eton Forever obviously has class, but does he have the will to put it all in?

Back Eton Forever pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP, with further offers to green up the field.

Neil Munro has a spring in his step as he considers some pointers for the upcoming Flat season as well as one that might return to big fences soon......

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In-running Week: Winter Derby yields promising signs

In-running / Neil Munro / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Neil was a keen observer at Lingfield (above) this week

"Cai Shen's premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground."

Neil Munro has a spring in his step as he considers some pointers for the upcoming Flat season as well as one that might return to big fences soon...

I love this time of year. We have just had the thrill of Cheltenham, we have the excitement of the Grand National Aintree meeting coming up, and the flat season is sneaking up on us. The first sign of that was the Winter Derby at Lingfield where we saw one of my in-running list horses for the flat season.

Cai Shen

Cai Shen made his All-Weather debut in the Winter Derby and, despite having a very wide draw, ran really well to go down a close second. Richard Hannon's four-year-old colt is tactically versatile but, with no obvious pace, I thought Jamie Spencer would try to get near the front and dictate from a prominent position. I should have known better as he settled Cai Shen on the outside near the back of the pack. But the colt travelled supremely well, as he always does, despite not taking the final bend very well, and traded at deep odds-on. Overall, he has traded at half his BSP in ten of his 12 races, with four victories. I don't have any issues with him and he will pick up a decent race or two this season. His premium conditions seem to be when the ground is good to firm, although he has won on good ground.

Advice: Back Cai Shen pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at half BSP in the run. Put up a further offer to lay at deep odds-on.

Noble Storm

This column studies all forms of racing but my heart will always be with sprinters. For me, nothing is more fulfilling than analysing a sprint handicap. So I was so looking forward to seeing Noble Storm run in the Listed sprint at Lingfield having been off the track for eight months. He loves to try and travel on the pace and Graham Gibbons managed to get him there, but after so long off, he never really settled and was never going to see out the race. He traded shorter but not to half his BSP. Overall, he's hit his mark 24 times in 28 runs so he will throughout the season.

Advice: With a 29% win ratio, I'm happy to back Noble Storm pre-race at BSP and then lay out my stake at half BSP in the run.

Petit Robin

Another to come back from a long lay-off, Petit Robin ran well enough in defeat over hurdles at his favourite track of Newbury. It will be interesting to see if connections head back over the bigger fences as he had quite a serious shoulder injury. But wherever connections go I would be using a back-to-lay strategy for this natural front-runner.

Advice: Back Petit Robin at BSP prior to the race and lay out your stake at half BSP in the run with an additional offer to lay our more at odds-on.

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In-running Week: Cheltenham Festival special

Results & Reviews / Neil Munro / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pure class - Barry Geraghty celebrates riding Sprinter Sacre to victory

"Montbazon travels well and keeps finding. But he has a tendency to make a mistake at the last."

An impatient Neil Munro considers some of the stars of day one at the Cheltenham Fesitval and explains how we should bet on them in future...

Maybe I should wait before analysing the Cheltenham form but, on day one, there were some horses that confirmed thoughts that I had going into the Festival.

Montbazon

Alan King was very upbeat before the Supreme Novice Hurdle, setting out that Montbazon had been working very well at home but admitting that he may not be good enough. So it proved with Montbazon finishing fourth behind Cinders And Ashes. However, he showed enough of the qualities that means I will be attempting to trade on him in the future. Montbazon is a battler who travels well and keeps finding. My main issue with him, and the reason that has brought about his last two defeats, is his propensity to make a mistake at the last. I believe this has cost him at Newbury, and in the Supreme. But because of his courageous qualities he is definitely worth a back to lay policy.

Back Montbazon pre-race at BSP and then lay out double your stake at one quarter the matched price. I would also put up a small speculative back bet at a big price.

Sprinter Sacre

Nicky Henderson's six-year-old was not as keen as before. He didn't trade high in the run - in fact, he didn't break evens - but he still took a while to settle. He is pure class but he remains on the list because his keeness could yet make him an interesting option for in-running bettors.

The Package

How good are the Pipes at getting a horse back to his best after a long layoff? Some mornings I feel I could benefit from time in the swimming pool that they use to get horses fit. The Package went to Cheltenham after being off the race track for over 450 days but ran superbly well to finish fourth in the 3m Handicap Chase on Day One of the Festival 2012. Historically, he's covered the ground in an eye-catching fashion from off the pace, and did so again before just fading. He always runs well at Cheltenham and in his last four defeats there he has traded [2.1], [2.1], [2.0] and [2.2]. He might go for the National but his two runs at Aintree, including one in the National, have both been poor.

Away from Aintree, back The Package pre-race at BSP and then lay out 150% of your stake at half the matched price.

The Champion Hurdle

This was a fantastic race and fascinating to try and dissect. Rock On Ruby travelled superbly well, as he has done previously and kept on finding up the hill, worth remembering for the future. Overturn is just as game as they come, and this was a career best performance. Hurricane Fly just didn't pick up and it will be interesting if an explanation comes to light. The race also featured two fascinating characters from an in-running point of view. Oscars Well again travelled well, didn't quite hit half his BSP in-running and again didn't take the last perfectly. To me he just needs to step up in trip but he does tend to trade low in the run. Just ahead of him, Zarkandar did his best work late on, to finish fifth. Look through all his runs and he does keep finding but, while campaigned over this kind of trip, I believe he will always trade bigger in the run.

Recommended
Rock On Ruby - Back to lay.
Overturn - Back to lay.
Oscars Well - Back to lay over 2m2f or further.
Zarkander - Lay to Back over 2m.

Sprinter Sacre has been given a Timeform master rating of 174p following his brilliant win in the Arkle Chase on the opening day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, making him the most highly rated novice chaser of the modern era......

Timeform look back on day one of the Cheltenham Festival, providing provisional ratings for the winners.......

Rock On Ruby ran out a most impressive winner of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham under Noel Fehily......

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In-Running Week: Neil Munro's Cheltenham Festival guide

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Timeform Radio Tip: Majorica King the in-running lay

Tipping / Will Hayler / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Majorica King has traded at odds-on before tasting defeat in his last two starts over hurdles and went into my notebook as a definite one to swerve last time as he travelled all over his rivals before treading water on the run-in."

Will Hayler becomes the second columnist of the day to like the chances of Belinsky but there's also money to be made for in-play punters in the form of Majorica King...

Belinsky is drawn to get a good early position from stall two and is capable of maintaining his unbeaten record for Julie Camacho in the closing six-furlong handicap (16.55) at Kempton this afternoon.

At no trip is an inside draw more important than Kempton's six furlongs as a long sweeping turn starts almost as soon as the runners have exited the stalls and prominent runner Belinsky ought to take advantage of that situation.

He doesn't have to lead but does appreciate being ridden prominently and was always near the front when making a winning start for the yard over today's course and distance earlier this month - Jim Crowley's first victory for the stable.

Crowley is back on board here and the handicapper has been perfectly fair in pushing him just 3lb up the weights for that narrow win. The form might not have added up to much but it isn't too far back in the past that he was able to win off a mark of 70 so 63 is about fair.

At [4.5] (7-2 in old money), he looks a perfectly fair bet and if getting a decent spot in the early stages, I'd be disappointed if he doesn't quickly trade short enough to give cautious backers a free insurance policy.

For a horse who took some time to break her duck - and a daughter of Antonius Pius at that - Shaunas Spirit looks very short at [2.7] to win the seven-furlong handicap at 15.25, but the opposition really is very ordinary and layers only have two or three realistic hopes to cheer for, so that's a bet I'll have to leave for the time being.

Majorica King has traded at odds-on before tasting defeat in his last two starts over hurdles and went into my notebook as a definite one to swerve last time as he travelled all over his rivals before treading water on the run-in.

He drops back to two miles at Towcester (13.40) this afternoon in the hope that it will help him see the race out, but I'd still be happy to put up a lay in-running at around [2.5] and hope to see him perform his usual trick before the final climb up the hill catches him out.

Recommended bets:

Back Belinsky to win at [4.5] in the Kempton 16.55.
Lay Majorica King in-running at [2.5] in the Towcester 13.40

Timeform's US team has been in excellent form of late, and highlight three more SmartPlays for Sunday evening......

Two backs and one lay are the order of the day in today's Follow The Money column. No change there then......

There's a lot of uncertainty in this Financial Climate but Nick's selection carries a lot more confidence......

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In-Running Week: Surprise Surprise

In-running / Neil Munro / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Try to remember the names of Neil's picks. Or better still write them down!

"You will be astonished to know that Surprise is a player. This is because she is a strong traveller and catches the eye of in-running backers."

Neil Munro explains why he's sticking with a horse that's had an unlucky 13 and three others that are also worth follow in-running...

As mentioned last week, the database of In-Running horses is being updated and adapted. I can almost hear those yawns from here! For those of you who have the mental capacity to remember the horses you want to trade on, and more importantly how you want to trade on them, just be aware of how lucky you are. Gone are those days for me, I can barely remember to get up in the morning.

But when I do get up, I open up the database and link it to the runners of the day. And I have seen some interesting characters over the last ten days or so.

Surprise

Mark Rimmer's three-year-old filly is yet to taste success after 13 runs, and I guess that should ring the alarm bells, but plenty of similar maidens would not be tradable in the run. But you will be astonished to know that Surprise is a player. This is because she is a strong traveller and catches the eye of in-running backers. Her best runs have come over 12 furlongs so look to have the field winning for you until she gets her head in front. She has traded at half her BSP in the run ten times out of 13 times we have seen her on a course. I am sure she can win a race.

Opera Gal

Opera Gal carries Jeff Smith's famous colours, so is easily identifiable and she also is a prominent runner so you tend to see her trying to dictate from the front. There is always a chorus of approval from me when the four year old has an entry as Opera Gal is ultra-consistent and she trades at half her BSP in defeat in around 82% of her runs. She also hits odds-on in around one-in-four runs as well. She has won a couple of times so decide whether you fancy her or not before deciding on how you play her. She copes with all ground and is best over ten to 12 furlongs.

Elusivity

This shady character has various quirks which is probably why he has only won a single race in 12 starts but has been second a further five times. Brian Meehan's three-year-old is very much one paced in a finish, but also seems to not like the battle. Elusivity has traded half his BSP in nine of his 11 defeats and four of those runs he has traded odds-on including one at [1.10] having gone off a BSP of [10.0]. So get the field winning for you by just trying to lay in-running (back to lay if a little less brave).

Other horses worth mentioning include Below Zero, who won for the first time in a while over six furlongs recently but should definitely be in your list for backing pre-race and laying in-running, and My Condor, who is another for back-to-lay as he has traded half his BSP twenty nine times in forty defeats.

As with anything else in life, the best in-running insights come to those who put the hard work in, says Neil Munro....

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In-running Week: Perspiration and a bit of inspiration

In-running / Neil Munro / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Neil has identified some interesting horses to follow in-running

"Excelette is one to trade on at short prices in her next few runs."

As with anything else in life, the best in-running insights come to those who put the hard work in, says Neil Munro.

As well as taking a few days out this week to enjoy some of the sights of Dublin with friends (and I don't just mean the bars), I have been doing some work on my In Running database.

I wanted it to give me more idea of what prices I should be trading on for certain horses. Unfortunately, it only gives you the information you want if you put the hard work in. So now I am starting to get the percentage chance if a horse is trading at half his SP, other prices and odds-on as well figures for those horses that trade bigger when they win. This is all useful information that will be shared as we discuss various horses over the coming months.

Our Jonathan: One of Dr Marwan Koukash's 500 horses in training. Seriously, we have to be thankful for new owners like the good doctor and we also have the advantage of knowing, because of his honesty, that he loves to have a winner at Chester, his local track. Indeed he has a 14 percent strike rate there and you would have made £18.83 to a unit pound stake by backing his horses blindly at the course.

Do we make this game too complicated at times? From an in-running point of view Our Jonathan is an interesting character. He has a win ratio of around 28%, which is pretty decent, and he has enjoyed the step up to seven furlongs this season. But he's a slow starter which means hold-up tactics are the norm. As you can imagine at Chester these tactics are far from ideal but he has won there once in three efforts. Out of five career wins he has traded at double his BSP three times, so if you want to back him try and do it at decent prices in the run. If he goes off at shortish prices I'm tempted to lay him pre-race and back him in the run if I feel the opposition is strong enough.

Excelette: On the same card at Chester ran Excelette, Bryan Smart's two-year-old, only four runs into her career. She had already caught my attention and is one to keep an eye for the rest of the summer. She looks a decent type as she did it the hard way, coming out of the stalls heading right on a tight left-handed track before tracking the pace and making up plenty of ground in the straight. She traded big in-running ([36.0] having gone off BSP [4.40]) but I think she is one to trade on at short prices in her next few runs. Previous to the Chester run she had been ridden prominently and already had two odds-on turnovers and another short price defeat. So as she steps up in class, I would back her pre-race and lay out at 25% of her BSP for your stake with a further odds-on offer to win on the field.

If you ever have any questions fire away on Twitter (@neilmunr) where I also try and point out some daily plays when I see them.

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In-Running Week: Royal Ascot special!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Somewhere in the pack is St Barths, meeting interference

"I hope connections run St Barths up with the pace next time, but if he is held up again, I will be supporting him while out the back and then laying off in case he hits trouble again."

Neil Munro brings his In-Play insight to two Royal Ascot runners - with specific betting advice - next time they take to the track

Royal Ascot 2011 is over, long live Royal Ascot 2011! I think it had a bit of everything: split opinion - some were excited by Frankel's run, others disappointed; pure emotion - Michael Owen's reaction to Brown Panther's win; amazement - no winner during the five days for Sir Michael Stoute; happiness - the Queen looked at one with the world everyday; surprise - James Fanshawe hasn't had the best of times recently but his Saturday double proved how good he is with sprinters.

For me personally it was a very quiet one, due to other commitments. Prohibit was a fancy of mine for the Kings Stand due to his consistent record at Ascot but I thought the ground had gone against him so left him alone. And Genki I did get involved with but he just wasn't quite good enough.

But what about the in-running angle? Well, I think that Royal Ascot 2011 proved to me that I am better off playing on the lower profile meetings, or you have to be a lot more conservative with your plays. But there are definitely some horses to take from the early part of the week.

St Barths
The Coventry Stakes always seems to throw up some good stories and I know a lot of people will have noticed St Barths' run but I think there is an in-running angle for the next few outings. We have now seen the two-year-old colt three times on the racecourse and, aside from his win at Leicester when sent off a very short price, he has encountered trouble in the run as connections have tried to deliver him from off the pace. Because he will eventually get a mile, St Barths finishes his races well. I hope connections will run him up with the pace next time, but if he is held up again, I will be supporting him while out the back and then laying off in case he hits trouble again.

Ermyn Lodge
It would have been fantastic for Pat Phelan to have had a Royal Ascot winner but he deserves full credit for the run of Ermyn Lodge in the Ascot Stakes over two miles. It wasn't a complete surprise, despite going off 16/1, as the five-year-old has a cracking record at Ascot and also on good ground so conditions suited. From an in-running point of view he is a strong traveller over extreme trips, thus he catches the eye of backers. In his last six defeats he has traded [3.05] or less five times. Unless the ground is good to firm then back pre-race and lay in-running.

I will be doing further analysis of the Ascot races over the next few days so expect more horses from Royal Ascot 2011 next week.

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In-Running Week: Slow burning strong runners

Bloggers / Neil Munro / 14 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Neil's looking to the future with horses to back and lay

"After a couple of runs to blow away the cobwebs, Roodle picked up the race at Yarmouth by showing a real turn of foot."

Eschewing the glamour of Ascot in favour of some horses to focus on long term, Neil Munro returns with his in-running week.

A run of the mill fillies' handicap at Yarmouth last week, with just five runners, produced three horses which are worth keeping an eye on for trading. Two of the runners traded odds-on while the winner traded nine times her starting price in the run.

Sairaam

The five-year-old mare has an ultra-consistent record over seven furlongs on good or good to firm ground with three wins and eight places in 19 runs. Sairaam travels well but can hang slightly under pressure, especially as she is currently running off a career high mark. This has led to her trading at [2.0] or under eight times with many other low trades. Under her premium conditions, I would be backing her pre-race and then laying out your stake and more at low odds.

Ming Meng

Michael Bell's four-year-old is lightly raced as she wasn't seen at two but she already has built up quite an in-running profile in nine starts. Ming Meng picked up a win over six furlongs in a weak maiden last season but has since traded shorter in all five subsequent runs and that includes two odds-on defeats and another trade at [2.0] in the run. Just be warned that she finished the Yarmouth race lame so I hope everything is ok with her. Still, I will definitely be taking her on in the run unless connections find another particularly weak race.

Roodle

The four-year-filly was tried at quite a high level during her two-year-old career and then was only seen twice as a three-year-old so she may have had problems. After a couple of runs to blow away the cobwebs, Roodle picked up the race at Yarmouth by showing a real turn of foot. I'm not sure yet what her best trip is but she pulled early in this steadily run seven furlong race before showing a sprinter's change of gear. Because of this she traded at 70 in the run, having been sent off a BSP of [8.2]. I will be watching her closely but you may get a bigger price in the run in future.

Just to prove I 'm not classist, and that I do get involved with the bigger races, look out for Markab in the Golden Jubilee on Saturday at Royal Ascot. As long as it's dried out to good to firm ground, he should be one for backing pre-race and laying in the run. Henry Candy's eight-year-old is a prominent runner with an ultra consistent record over six furlongs.

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In-Running Week: Hold-up special!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Late finishers = big in-running odds

"Trachonitis doesn’t always find quite as much as you would expect and with seven odds-on trades in defeat you can obtain a useful winning position on the rest of the field."

Neil Munro outlines specific In-Play betting strategies for a trio of horses

With in-running trades the temptation is to concentrate on those horses dictating the pace from the front, or being ridden in a prominent manner. But some of the best plays come from those animals that are held up in mid-division, or even further back, but travel with supreme style. This allows you to obtain a clear position on them even before they have started to make their move and then you don't have to worry if they are delivered too late or they don't find as much as expected. Here are some such 'closers' as the Americans would call them.

Trachonitis
John Jenkins' experienced 7yo gelding loves a test of stamina and has five career wins to his name, three on turf and two on the All-Weather. The preferred tactics of Trachonitis since joining Jenkins has been to hold him off the pace and let him travel past tired horses to win the race. But, in all honesty, he doesn't always find quite as much as you would expect and with seven odds-on trades in defeat you can obtain a useful winning position on the rest of the field. His best form on turf has come when the ground is good to firm so beware he could go on to win under those conditions. Otherwise take him on at low odds.

Cai Shen
Richard Hannon's son of Iffraaj has only had six starts in his career but one very noticeable point about him is how well he travels. With three wins in those starts Cai Shen knows how to get his head in front but as he is set harder challenges it is nice to know that you can lay out your position on him during a race before he is even asked the question. In his last two defeats he has traded at [2.5] and [1.51] in the run before finishing second and third. He relishes good to firm ground and will win further races but he is a great trade with the eye catching way he travels.

Rocket Rob
I have to mention a sprinter somewhere and Willie Musson now trains a 5yo who likes to be delivered as late as possible. This leads to many in-running factors with Rocket Rob, who had previously been with Marco Botti, but new connections are persevering with the same tactics. So, as a hold-up sprinter, he quite often hits trouble in-running and it appears that they don't want him at the front to early. His best record is on good to firm ground and he appears to enjoy Sandown. The play on him is that, if you think it is his day back him in-running because he nearly always trades bigger, and if you don't lay him in-running as he travels into the race.

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In-running week: Go Native?

In-running / Neil Munro / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sunshine, the scent of cut grass and some in-play runners on the flat...

"If you fancy Eucharist, split your stakes, and back half pre-race and half at double the starting price in-running."

The flat season is here and with Neil Munro - Betting.Betfair's man for all things in-running...

The Flat season is properly upon us now and that was proved by the reappearance of Frankel at Newbury. Everybody has noticed that he was a bit keen and would enjoy a stronger pace, and thus a bigger field in the 2000 Guineas. Because of that phrase 'everybody has noticed' he is not a horse that I would want to play on in-running but there is another high visibility runner that I do want to get involved on.

Native Khan has done very little wrong in his four career starts, apart from defeat in the Racing Post Trophy at the back end of last season. He came back with a workmanlike performance in the Craven which suggested one word of warning for his future runs. He travelled supremely well and then hit the front one furlong out. Now this was probably a little too soon and when he got there he definitely idled and then hung left.

So how do we play a horse like this? For his next three runs, including hopefully the 2000 Guineas, I would back him pre-race and then look to lay off my stake and a bit more in-running at a quarter of that matched price. If he does idle, or they try and deliver him as late as possible, you will hopefully have a clear position on the market.

A more run of the mill flat horse to follow for the summer is the front runner Baltimore Jack. The seven-year-old normally needs a couple of runs at the beginning of the season, so I wouldn't worry about his two runs so far. He loves running on good to firm ground between a mile and ten furlongs, having won four times and been placed a further four times in 11 runs under such conditions. He loves to dictate from the front and because of this has ten trades at [3.0] or under. So now you know the conditions to back him pre-race and lay out in-running. Under softer conditions I would leave him alone.

A more speculative play could be on Eucharist. Richard Hannon's three-year-old put up a decent seasonal reappearance the other day but he is one of those rare Hannon horses that is held up. Because of this, at two, he traded significantly bigger in-running on two of his four wins and the suggestion is they will stick to those tactics this season. So if you fancy him, split your stakes, and back half pre-race and half at double the starting price in-running.

Keep an eye on these horses for the summer as they should all be running fairly regularly. Best of luck as always.

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In-Running Week: Column returns for the Flat!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Breathless Kiss make your an in-running profit this summer?

"Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her."

Neil Munro may have moved from England to Ireland but he still loves the game and the opportunities for In-Play trading on Betfair. He returns with one to watch in spring handicaps this spring and summer

It has been a while since the last In-Running Week after I relocated from Stevenage to Dublin as my Betfair job moved across the Irish Sea. Don't you miss Stevenage I hear you cry? What has Dublin got that Stevenage hasn't? A beautiful coastline near-by, Irish hospitality, the Guinness tour, plenty of racecourses, Temple Bar, Trinity College, let me stop!

Although there may be a few more Irish horses on this service than previously, I will still be mainly concentrating on all the in-running characters in UK racing, and there are plenty of them. For those who haven't read the column before, I try and take a unique approach to in-running trading. I look for plays that you can put up using the keep bet function (call the Betfair Helpdesk for information if you don't know about this) so you are not reacting to what IS happening in-running, but what is likely to happen. We have had plenty of success with this, mainly thanks to good old-fashioned home work.

The first horse I want to put up is a 5f specialist, which brings together my two great loves, a sprinter and a horse with an interesting in-running profile. I love the National Hunt game, and I love all the Classics on the Flat revolving around middle distance performers, BUT for me there is no greater sight than a big field sprint handicap with them blasting off from the start.

Now Breathless Kiss is a four-year-old filly whith sprint specialists all through her breeding. Given her US heritage it was no surprise that she picked up a couple of wins over the all-weather winter at Kempton and Lingfield but she proved she could still cope with the turf when winning at Beverley a little over a week ago.

Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her. Her record over the minimum trip on turf and the all-weather is five wins from eight starts, not a bad strike rate you have to admit. What I do believe is that she needs a strong pace to come off of, or a stiff finish, so that others are coming back at her.

The play on Breathless Kiss is to split your stakes, backing her both pre-race and then in-running at bigger odds. If you don't fancy her to win, you could lay her pre-race and try and trade your position in the race by backing her at bigger odds. She trades bigger during the race as she is often held up and must find a passage through with her late finish. She has traded double her starting price in the run on four of her five wins.

So there you have it, the first offering of the Flat season, and may I wish you all the best of luck for the coming week.

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