Serie A: Back goals in the Rome derby and Atalanta to spring a surprise

"Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend’s Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price."

Italian football expert Dave Farrar expect goals in the big derby of the weekend, and Atalanta to upset Inter at the San Siro...

Fiorentina v Milan

Having backed Fiorentina for a Top Four finish at the start of the season, it's becoming agonising to see them throw away points in the manner that they did last week against Cagliari. Analysis of La Viola's season shows that they could be in with a real chance of finishing second, and already have a Champions League place sewn up. They have dropped 17 points against teams in the bottom half of the table so far, and that's something that's worth remembering when you look at their "easy" run in. It will only be as comfortable as they make it for themselves.

Sunday morning's match at the Artemio Franchi will be well worth watching: Fiorentina beat Milan at San Siro back in November, and the Rossoneri will be out for revenge. Max Allegri's side have their sights set firmly on second place, and they too will look back at the end of the season and consider the points that they threw away in its early stages. The defining moments of Milan's season start here, with Napoli and Juve to come in the next two weeks, and they will be looking to win. A draw will cede ground to Napoli, and they can't afford that given the nature of their next two challenges. Fiorentina are priced at 3.02/1 for the win, with Milan 2.68/5 and I don't see too much wrong with those prices. Given how closely matched the teams are, in fact, the draw at 3.412/5 may be the smartest play of all.

I'm more interested in the goals markets, though. Since Ezequiel Schelotto scored the equaliser in the derby, Milan have gone 379 minutes without conceding a goal in Serie A, and that must be the main reason why over 2.5 goals is available at 2.0621/20. Given the way that the game is likely to be played, that's an attractive proposition. Although Fiorentina will be without Stefan Jovetic, Vincenzo Montella will look to use the pace in his team to unsettle Milan, and I think that he'll have some success. At the other end of the field, Milan can cause La Viola problems, and I actually fancy the Rossoneri to edge this, but the best bet is on the overs at odds against.  

Recommended Bet

Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Milan @ 2.0621/20

Roma v Lazio

The Rome derby on Monday night rounds off a brilliant weekend of TV fixtures, and this is a tough one to call. There have been seven red cards in the last five runnings of this fixture, and while that doesn't necessarily lead you to lump on 'Yes' in the Sending Off? market, it does make you realise that anything could happen here. Roma MUST beat Lazio to rekindle any hopes that they have of a Top Four finish, and they know that a win would draw them level on points with their city rivals. The identity of the Top Four will be the glue that binds the rest of the Serie A season together. Roma are justifiably favourites, but they look a little short to me at 2.021/1.  

I can't support a team that lost in Palermo (and failed to score) at that kind of price in a game of this magnitude, especially given the fact that Lazio have won the last three derbies. All season long we have seen that Lazio are a better team with Miroslav Klose, and even though he's on his way back, he still won't be fit to start. Roma are missing the suspended Pablo Osvaldo, and that creates a conundrum in terms of the Match Odds market: Roma are justifiably favourites, but are short enough at 2.021/1. I think that Lazio will score at least once, and we know that Roma, even after the departure of Zdenek Zeman and without Osvaldo, are capable of producing goals at home (3 and 2 in the first two post Zeman games).    

Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend's Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price.
Recommended Bet

Back over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 3.412/5

Inter v Atalanta

A couple of weeks ago, we profitably supported Bologna at a price to win at Inter. Something similar may happen this weekend as Atalanta visit San Siro. Atalanta are priced at 5.14/1 to win against Inter, and with the home team's striking issues reaching crisis point, Stefano Colantuono's side can cause a surprise this weekend. Atalanta have already beaten Inter once this season, in a brilliant game, and they've already won at San Siro, when they frustrated Milan, and caught them on the counter with a Luca Cigarini goal.

In their last two away games, Atalanta have won in Siena, and then caused Napoli a world of pain before being beaten.  They were unable to break down Samp last week, but there's a big difference between having to break down a rock solid defence at home, and playing on the counter attack away, and given Inter's problems in forward areas, Atalanta may have enough about them to keep a clean sheet, and grab a prize at the other end. Rodrigo Palacio has been Inter's only threat in recent weeks, scoring 5 of their last 6 Serie A goals, and his injury means that Andrea Stramaccioni is down to Antonio Cassano plus one other.

Whatever the combination, it won't strike fear into Atalanta, and, at the risk of going to the well one time too many, I'll be supporting German Denis and Inter loanee Marko Livaja to inspire an away win. If you think that Atalanta look safely midtable, and that this could be one of those bloodless performances that we can see in late season, I wouldn't worry: they have a tough run of games to come, and won't want to take any chances. 

Recommended Bet

Back Atalanta to beat Inter @ 5.14/1 

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Michael Vaughan: Straussy decision no surprise

The cricket world has united in praise of Andrew Strauss after he today announced his retirement from all forms of the game. It was a decision that did not surprise former England captain, and now Betfair ambassador, Michael Vaughan

I'm not surprised by the news. I've realised this decision has been coming for a few weeks now, just from the way Straussy has been carrying himself. I know from my own experience that once you've decided to go, you become a bit 'too cool for school' and are enjoying your batting instead of the intense focus you'd normally have as captain.

We know he has been struggling to get runs so this, tied in with losing to South Africa and the KP affair, would have tipped him over the edge.

I'm also not surprised at all he's retiring from all forms of cricket. He doesn't just want to hang around scoring a few runs for Middlesex; he's got a good family around him and plenty of other interests - he's not just about cricket.

The highlight for me when you're talking about playing with Straussy is of course the 2005 Ashes and, in particular, the century he got on the first day at the Oval. Everyone talks about KP's ton, but that 100 set the tone for the match and was vitally important.

Of course, winning the Ashes in Australia is the ultimate achievement for any captain, so that will undoubtedly be remembered as the main highlight for Andrew - as he said himself today.

Alastair Cook takes over now and he is a very capable leader. As I know myself, give it three months and they'll be saying 'Andrew who?'!

It's the toughest of starts for Cook with a tour to India; the hardest place to captain a team.

My gut feeling is that Jonathan Trott will move up the order to open with Ian Bell at three and Eoin Morgan or Ravi Bopara at four. It will mean an inexperience middle order, with the likes of Taylor and Bairstow vying for places, but given that England were hammered with an experience side last year, Cook goes out there with no pressure really. It will all be about New Zealand and then Australia.

Of course, the Kevin Pietersen issue remains. It might be easier to settle with Strauss' departure, but Kevin's beef appears to be with the ECB so we might be talking some time. If I was Alastair Cook, I'd be looking to sit down with Pietersen at some point and having a chat.

I'll be back tomorrow to preview Friday's ODI.

***

Thanks to @BetfairSports followers @pradph, @84_mb, @Sambowers1991 and @DanMclean who tweeted in questions for @VaughanCricket

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US Masters Tips: Casey and Clarke can surprise in Top UK&Ire

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 03 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Casey spring a surprise in the Top UK&Ireland betting?

"Casey is now back up to speed for a course tailor-made to his strengths. 'Team Casey' has recorded three top-11s since his debut sixth in 2004 and his Augusta return should generate the warm and fuzzies he needs to rekindle his desire for cut-throat contention."

A small stakes wager on two of the forgotten men of British and Irish golf might just yield a profit in the top UK & Ireland market, suggests Romily Evans

In a microcosm of the Top American betting, Rory McIlroy and Luke Donald bestride this betting landscape. Lee Westwood isn't far behind at [5.8] to back, but if pressed I'd rather take a bigger price about one of the big boys donning the Green Jacket with a bet in the winner market or placing outright, than these more miserly quotes.

Trawling further down the lists, Paul Casey ([38.0] to back) and Darren Clarke ([80.0] to back) take my eye at some huge double-digit odds. Of course, these exaggerated prices are not without reason - Clarke's form has dipped dramatically since his emotional win at Royal St George's, while Casey is only just getting his career back on track after a protracted period of emotional and physical torment.

In short, though, both men have suffered from motivational issues and taking their eyes off the ball. Clarke has refocused and is practising hard again (if his ISM blog is to be believed at any rate), while Casey is now back up to speed for a course tailor-made to his strengths. "Team Casey" has recorded three top-11s since his debut sixth in 2004 and his Augusta return should generate the warm and fuzzies he needs to rekindle his desire for cut-throat contention. Small-acorns-to-big-oaks is the staking plan here.

Recommended Bets
Back Paul Casey @ [38.0]
Back Darren Clarke @ [80.0]

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Mali v Guinea: Underdogs set to spring a surprise

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mali's Seydou Keita is one of the tournament's biggest names

"The member of Guinea's younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France’s second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes."

James Eastham expects "The National Elephants" to defy the odds by seeing off Mali in Group D.

Mali v Guinea, Tuesday January 24, KO 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali [2.62], Guinea [3.0], The Draw [3.2].

This is an intriguing match-up between the two sides expected to contest second place in the group behind Ghana. Mali are [4.2] to win Group D, Guinea [7.0].

My feeling is the gap between the two sides isn't as big as those odds suggest. Mali have qualified for three of the last four finals, reaching the semi-finals in 2002 and 2004, but disappointed in Angola two years ago, going out against all odds in the first round, and have rebuilt since then. Barcelona's Seydou Keita is still there, but behind him there's an obvious lack of experience: 17 of Alain Giresse's squad are 25 or under.

There's a better mix in the Guinea ranks, with the likes of goalkeeper Naby Yattara and Ismael Bangoura providing a useful bridge between the squad's elder statesmen, such as seemingly ageless centre-half Bobo Balde and frustrating but occasionally brilliant playmaker-cum-goalscorer Pascal Feindouno, and the younger generation. The member of that younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France's second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes.

Looking at the prices, I'd rather take Guinea at [3.0] or The Draw at [3.2] than Mali at [2.6]. In order to avoid backing the wrong one of those two suggestions, an alternative would be to back Guinea -0 Asian handicap at [2.05]. That way, you'll make money if Guinea win, and get your stakes back if the game finishes all-square.

Over 2.5 goals is my other selection. This bet came off for us when Burkina Faso played Angola on Sunday. I'm selecting it again for the same reasons: 16 of 31 opening-round fixtures have featured three goals or more at the last four tournaments.

Best Bet: Guinea -0 Asian handicap @ [2.05]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

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In-Running Week: Surprise Surprise

In-running / Neil Munro / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Try to remember the names of Neil's picks. Or better still write them down!

"You will be astonished to know that Surprise is a player. This is because she is a strong traveller and catches the eye of in-running backers."

Neil Munro explains why he's sticking with a horse that's had an unlucky 13 and three others that are also worth follow in-running...

As mentioned last week, the database of In-Running horses is being updated and adapted. I can almost hear those yawns from here! For those of you who have the mental capacity to remember the horses you want to trade on, and more importantly how you want to trade on them, just be aware of how lucky you are. Gone are those days for me, I can barely remember to get up in the morning.

But when I do get up, I open up the database and link it to the runners of the day. And I have seen some interesting characters over the last ten days or so.

Surprise

Mark Rimmer's three-year-old filly is yet to taste success after 13 runs, and I guess that should ring the alarm bells, but plenty of similar maidens would not be tradable in the run. But you will be astonished to know that Surprise is a player. This is because she is a strong traveller and catches the eye of in-running backers. Her best runs have come over 12 furlongs so look to have the field winning for you until she gets her head in front. She has traded at half her BSP in the run ten times out of 13 times we have seen her on a course. I am sure she can win a race.

Opera Gal

Opera Gal carries Jeff Smith's famous colours, so is easily identifiable and she also is a prominent runner so you tend to see her trying to dictate from the front. There is always a chorus of approval from me when the four year old has an entry as Opera Gal is ultra-consistent and she trades at half her BSP in defeat in around 82% of her runs. She also hits odds-on in around one-in-four runs as well. She has won a couple of times so decide whether you fancy her or not before deciding on how you play her. She copes with all ground and is best over ten to 12 furlongs.

Elusivity

This shady character has various quirks which is probably why he has only won a single race in 12 starts but has been second a further five times. Brian Meehan's three-year-old is very much one paced in a finish, but also seems to not like the battle. Elusivity has traded half his BSP in nine of his 11 defeats and four of those runs he has traded odds-on including one at [1.10] having gone off a BSP of [10.0]. So get the field winning for you by just trying to lay in-running (back to lay if a little less brave).

Other horses worth mentioning include Below Zero, who won for the first time in a while over six furlongs recently but should definitely be in your list for backing pre-race and laying in-running, and My Condor, who is another for back-to-lay as he has traded half his BSP twenty nine times in forty defeats.

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