Serie A: Back goals in the Rome derby and Atalanta to spring a surprise

"Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend’s Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price."

Italian football expert Dave Farrar expect goals in the big derby of the weekend, and Atalanta to upset Inter at the San Siro...

Fiorentina v Milan

Having backed Fiorentina for a Top Four finish at the start of the season, it's becoming agonising to see them throw away points in the manner that they did last week against Cagliari. Analysis of La Viola's season shows that they could be in with a real chance of finishing second, and already have a Champions League place sewn up. They have dropped 17 points against teams in the bottom half of the table so far, and that's something that's worth remembering when you look at their "easy" run in. It will only be as comfortable as they make it for themselves.

Sunday morning's match at the Artemio Franchi will be well worth watching: Fiorentina beat Milan at San Siro back in November, and the Rossoneri will be out for revenge. Max Allegri's side have their sights set firmly on second place, and they too will look back at the end of the season and consider the points that they threw away in its early stages. The defining moments of Milan's season start here, with Napoli and Juve to come in the next two weeks, and they will be looking to win. A draw will cede ground to Napoli, and they can't afford that given the nature of their next two challenges. Fiorentina are priced at 3.02/1 for the win, with Milan 2.68/5 and I don't see too much wrong with those prices. Given how closely matched the teams are, in fact, the draw at 3.412/5 may be the smartest play of all.

I'm more interested in the goals markets, though. Since Ezequiel Schelotto scored the equaliser in the derby, Milan have gone 379 minutes without conceding a goal in Serie A, and that must be the main reason why over 2.5 goals is available at 2.0621/20. Given the way that the game is likely to be played, that's an attractive proposition. Although Fiorentina will be without Stefan Jovetic, Vincenzo Montella will look to use the pace in his team to unsettle Milan, and I think that he'll have some success. At the other end of the field, Milan can cause La Viola problems, and I actually fancy the Rossoneri to edge this, but the best bet is on the overs at odds against.  

Recommended Bet

Back over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina v Milan @ 2.0621/20

Roma v Lazio

The Rome derby on Monday night rounds off a brilliant weekend of TV fixtures, and this is a tough one to call. There have been seven red cards in the last five runnings of this fixture, and while that doesn't necessarily lead you to lump on 'Yes' in the Sending Off? market, it does make you realise that anything could happen here. Roma MUST beat Lazio to rekindle any hopes that they have of a Top Four finish, and they know that a win would draw them level on points with their city rivals. The identity of the Top Four will be the glue that binds the rest of the Serie A season together. Roma are justifiably favourites, but they look a little short to me at 2.021/1.  

I can't support a team that lost in Palermo (and failed to score) at that kind of price in a game of this magnitude, especially given the fact that Lazio have won the last three derbies. All season long we have seen that Lazio are a better team with Miroslav Klose, and even though he's on his way back, he still won't be fit to start. Roma are missing the suspended Pablo Osvaldo, and that creates a conundrum in terms of the Match Odds market: Roma are justifiably favourites, but are short enough at 2.021/1. I think that Lazio will score at least once, and we know that Roma, even after the departure of Zdenek Zeman and without Osvaldo, are capable of producing goals at home (3 and 2 in the first two post Zeman games).    

Earlier this season, these two produced a 5 goal thriller, and while tiredness and nervousness may not lead to a classic in the mould of last weekend's Torino v Napoli game, I still think that over 3.5 goals at around 3.412/5 is a fair price.
Recommended Bet

Back over 3.5 Goals in Roma v Lazio @ 3.412/5

Inter v Atalanta

A couple of weeks ago, we profitably supported Bologna at a price to win at Inter. Something similar may happen this weekend as Atalanta visit San Siro. Atalanta are priced at 5.14/1 to win against Inter, and with the home team's striking issues reaching crisis point, Stefano Colantuono's side can cause a surprise this weekend. Atalanta have already beaten Inter once this season, in a brilliant game, and they've already won at San Siro, when they frustrated Milan, and caught them on the counter with a Luca Cigarini goal.

In their last two away games, Atalanta have won in Siena, and then caused Napoli a world of pain before being beaten.  They were unable to break down Samp last week, but there's a big difference between having to break down a rock solid defence at home, and playing on the counter attack away, and given Inter's problems in forward areas, Atalanta may have enough about them to keep a clean sheet, and grab a prize at the other end. Rodrigo Palacio has been Inter's only threat in recent weeks, scoring 5 of their last 6 Serie A goals, and his injury means that Andrea Stramaccioni is down to Antonio Cassano plus one other.

Whatever the combination, it won't strike fear into Atalanta, and, at the risk of going to the well one time too many, I'll be supporting German Denis and Inter loanee Marko Livaja to inspire an away win. If you think that Atalanta look safely midtable, and that this could be one of those bloodless performances that we can see in late season, I wouldn't worry: they have a tough run of games to come, and won't want to take any chances. 

Recommended Bet

Back Atalanta to beat Inter @ 5.14/1 

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Boxing Betting: Can Chisora spring a shock against Klitschko?

Boxing Betting / Ralph Ellis / 15 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Chisora conquer Klitschko?

"The more I see of Chisora, finally getting a bit of limelight, the more I like about his brash style."

Ralph Ellis looks ahead to Saturday night's big fight and asks if we could see a brash Brit bring about the end of the Vitali era.

Back when I worked for the Daily Star, our boxing writer of the time Ken Gorman's biggest battles tended to be with the accountants.

The men who sat in an office and signed off the budget were jealous of the idea that he spent half his time flying back and forth to Las Vegas or New Jersey, and they weren't too keen on the flight and hotel costs either. Eventually they got their way and stopped him from going to a world title contest in Tokyo.

The sports editor backed his attempt to appeal against the decision, but lost. "What's the point?" asked the managing editor. "It's Mike Tyson, he's won all his previous 37 fights, and stopped Carl Williams last time out in the first round. We're not paying to send Ken half way round the world just to write that Tyson's put some other bum on the canvas."

So Ken, along with several other of Fleet Street's top boxing men who'd lost the same argument with their offices, was at home when Buster Douglas knocked out Tyson in the tenth round to create one of the biggest boxing stories of last century.

It's a story worth telling as you approach Dereck Chisora's meeting with Vitali Klitschko in Munich on Saturday night. It's a fight that looks totally predictable. The elder and arguably better one of the two Ukrainian brothers who rule the heavyweight division is [1.09] to add the Brit to his long list of victims and on the face of it even that's probably too big a price.

But - and here's the very big but - somebody, some day, is going to end Vitali's near eight-year reign as the WBC world champion and when it does happen it will be every bit as much a shock as when Buster Douglas put Tyson on the floor. Most of all it will be a shock to Vitali himself, and I just wonder if he isn't seeing exactly what's coming his way on Saturday night.

Chisora has been doing the rounds with all the usual hype. He says he'll win in the eighth (handy if he's right because you can back that at anywhere between [100.00] and [1000.00]). Meanwhile Klitschko's pre-fight press conferences have been all about politics. There could be a Syria style uprising in the Ukraine, he's warned (not good news for the tourist industry ahead of Euro 2012, but there you go).

It suggests a 40-year-old who has maybe got too sure of himself, picking what he sees as another easy contest to extend his stay at the top. And the more I see of Chisora, finally getting a bit of limelight, the more I like about his brash style. "The Klitschkos don't like a fight," he says. "The psychology of the Klitschkos is to be nice to you before and then destroy you in the ring. So I have to take it to Vitali - without a doubt. Vitali don't like going backwards. I've got to go at him from the start, fight inside and hurt him."

After twice being lined up to fight Wladimir and seeing the contest called off at the last minute, Chisora also has the vital quality that he genuinely thinks Klitschko might be just so slightly scared of what he could do. "There's a Rocky theme going on in my life," says Chisora. "You never know what might happen next."

Exactly. As a triumphant sports editor explained to the accountants all those years ago: "The whole point about news is you don't know when or where it will happen." I fancy it's worth at the very least a back-to-lay bet on Chisora to see if the answer is in Munich this Saturday night.

Five things you might not know about Dereck Chisora

1. Born December 1983 in Zimbabwe, he was 16 when he came to England to join his mother who had already moved here and had found him a place in a public school.

2. That didn't last, and he got into trouble hanging round his home in Hampstead with kids who involved him in petty crime. It was a probation officer who suggested he go to Finchley Boxing Club.

3. He still speaks the Bantu language of Shona and stays in touch with his African roots.

4. He's an antique collector who loves old-style English furniture but also buys quirky items. He's got an old style parking meter and a red phone box.

5. He chose his 'Del Boy' nickname and Only Fools and Horses walk-on music because he was selling cars to make extra money in his early days after turning pro.

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Mali v Guinea: Underdogs set to spring a surprise

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mali's Seydou Keita is one of the tournament's biggest names

"The member of Guinea's younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France’s second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes."

James Eastham expects "The National Elephants" to defy the odds by seeing off Mali in Group D.

Mali v Guinea, Tuesday January 24, KO 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali [2.62], Guinea [3.0], The Draw [3.2].

This is an intriguing match-up between the two sides expected to contest second place in the group behind Ghana. Mali are [4.2] to win Group D, Guinea [7.0].

My feeling is the gap between the two sides isn't as big as those odds suggest. Mali have qualified for three of the last four finals, reaching the semi-finals in 2002 and 2004, but disappointed in Angola two years ago, going out against all odds in the first round, and have rebuilt since then. Barcelona's Seydou Keita is still there, but behind him there's an obvious lack of experience: 17 of Alain Giresse's squad are 25 or under.

There's a better mix in the Guinea ranks, with the likes of goalkeeper Naby Yattara and Ismael Bangoura providing a useful bridge between the squad's elder statesmen, such as seemingly ageless centre-half Bobo Balde and frustrating but occasionally brilliant playmaker-cum-goalscorer Pascal Feindouno, and the younger generation. The member of that younger generation that immediately leaps out is Sadio Diallo: this tall, graceful attacker has been excellent at Bastia in France's second division this season and appears on the point of a €4m move to Ligue 1 Rennes.

Looking at the prices, I'd rather take Guinea at [3.0] or The Draw at [3.2] than Mali at [2.6]. In order to avoid backing the wrong one of those two suggestions, an alternative would be to back Guinea -0 Asian handicap at [2.05]. That way, you'll make money if Guinea win, and get your stakes back if the game finishes all-square.

Over 2.5 goals is my other selection. This bet came off for us when Burkina Faso played Angola on Sunday. I'm selecting it again for the same reasons: 16 of 31 opening-round fixtures have featured three goals or more at the last four tournaments.

Best Bet: Guinea -0 Asian handicap @ [2.05]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.34]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

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Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting: Al preserved for spring return

News / Timeform / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Weird Al could be in line for a tilt the Gold Cup.

"We've yet to decide whether to go for the Gold Cup or go straight to Aintree, but we've got plenty of time."

Weird Al is set to have a long break before being prepared for a spring campaign following his fine effort at Haydock in the Betfair Chase...

The Cheltenham Gold Cup, for which Weird Al is currently available at [22.0] on Betfair, and a Grade 1 at Aintree are the races trainer Donald McCain has got in mind for the eight year-old.

McCain was delighted his charge showed he was up to taking on the best when third behind Kauto Star and Long Run in the Betfair Chase, three weeks after winning Wetherby's Charlie Hall Chase.

"Timmy (Murphy) made it look like he was travelling better down the back than he actually was, but to his credit he stuck at it and galloped all the way to the line to be a couple of lengths behind Long Run," McCain told At The Races.

"That's proved we can compete at that level and it also proved he's a better horse fresh, so he'll have a good long break and now and come back for the spring.

"We've yet to decide whether to go for the Gold Cup or go straight to Aintree, but we've got plenty of time."

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Spring Carnival: Play the $2million Flemington Quaddie

World Racing / Timeform / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Flemington racecourse.

"It is hard to fault the latest form of December Draw who has won his two starts this campaign in convincing fashion.

With a huge guranteed pool at Flemington on Sunday morning, the Quaddie (first leg 02:50 BST) looks well worth a go. Timeform's team from Down Under give you their selections...

Flemington Race 5 (02:50 BST)

Celebrity Girl , who was demoted to fourth on protest last start after originally dead heating with the eventual winner of the Thousand Guineas Prelude, has drawn well and is capable of bouncing back. Mosheen was placed in the same race last start, only missing out narrowly in a blanket finish, and the signs were encouraging based on how she hit the line. Bliss Street was eye-catching when taking out the Thousand Guineas Prelude. She powered home from the tail of the field and became outright winner on protest. The filly meets her nearest rivals last start on level terms here and can upset the favourites again.

Suggested combination: 5-1-2

Flemington Race 6 (03:25 BST)

There was a rare blemish on the career record of Decision Time last start when fifth in the Group 2 The Shorts. The consistent sprinter should bounce back at his first attempt down Flemington's straight six. Soul could be considered a touch unlucky at his latest run. The four-year-old has won twice down the straight which bodes well for his chances here. First Command was beaten as favourite last start when second up in the Testa Rossa Stakes. Temple of Boom is a dual winner at the track and comes even further into contention if this race is run on rain affected ground. Don't discount Varenna Miss on resuming either who ran good figures at the end of her last campaign.

Suggested combination: 1-2-4-5-18

Flemington Race 7 (04:05 BST)

It is hard to fault the latest form of December Draw who has won his two starts this campaign in convincing fashion. This is his toughest test to date but looks up to it. Rekindled Interest returned to the winners circle last start. Rises 400m in distance here which should suit. Glass Harmonium has been thereabouts at both his runs this preparation. Step up in distance and leading jockey taking the ride aids his chances. Linton has finished midfield at his two runs this campaign, but at a more preferred trip improvement can be expected.

Suggested combination: 13-8-7-5

Flemington Race 8 (04:40 BST)

Open race outside the favourite. Costly Commitment is the one to beat again following his strong win last time. Sat off the speed before winning well and looks set to do the same here. Trump was a beaten favourite last time but his form is good and the stable have a strong record in Melbourne when they visit. Scelto fought on well after sitting up on the speed last start and is capable of doing the same here. Many hopes outside top pick.

Suggested combination: 3-1-4

Selections
Race 5 - 5-1-2
Race 6 - 1-2-4-5-18
Race 7 - 13-8-7-5
Race 8 - 3-1-4
= 180 lines

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Timeform Radio Tip: Spring to come good in late summer

Timeform Radio Tip / Terry Norman / 03 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Two good bets have been discovered for us by today's Timeform Radio pundit Terry Norman.

The Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York this season wasn't the best renewal but there were plenty of unexposed types and the winner, Entifaadha, won it off the back of a maiden victory at Newmarket.

The winner is smart but the one that caught the eye was the performance of seemingly-exposed Caledonian Spring (16.40 Haydock) .

Caught up in trouble turning into the straight, Paul D'Arcy's son of Amadeus Wolf made up a tremendous amount of ground from the back.

Eventually, Caledonian Spring finished fourth, beaten by less than three lengths, suggesting the step up to a mile would be ideal. The anticipated fast ground will not be a problem.

The formbook backs up that the selection has the best form on paper but there are plenty of unexposed types.

Crius took an age to get going in a 1mile nursery at York and the well-bred Stipulate won despite being very green on debut at Leicester.

There is every chance either of the two named above could improve beyond Caledonian Spring, but I'm happy to go with what already is in the manuals.

Modun (2.15 Kempton) can take advantage of an expected pace duel to overcome a deficit in the official ratings of this Group three contest.

Michael Stoute's gelding came to win the Ebor (14f) before his stamina gave way and he faded to finish a respectable fourth. He has been on an upward curve all season and has form on the polytrack.

Harris Tweed, with the highest BHA rating of 115, is also dropping in distance and grade following an abortive attempt in the Lonsdale Cup.

The main problem facing Harris Tweed (well beaten on his only polytrack run) is that he is confronted by another confirmed front-runner in Classic Punch (0-3 polytrack). Both like to dominate and give no quarter. A duel seems possible.

Simon de Montfort has winning form on Tapeta and is slowing regaining form while the mare Brushing makes her debut on an artificial surface.

Back Caledonian Spring (16.40 Haydock) @ [5.7]
Back Modun (14.15 Kempton) @ [4.1]

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