Thursday, April 14, 2011

In-Running Week: Column returns for the Flat!

Neil Munro RSS / Neil Munro / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Breathless Kiss make your an in-running profit this summer?

Can Breathless Kiss make your an in-running profit this summer?

"Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her."

Neil Munro may have moved from England to Ireland but he still loves the game and the opportunities for In-Play trading on Betfair. He returns with one to watch in spring handicaps this spring and summer

It has been a while since the last In-Running Week after I relocated from Stevenage to Dublin as my Betfair job moved across the Irish Sea. Don't you miss Stevenage I hear you cry? What has Dublin got that Stevenage hasn't? A beautiful coastline near-by, Irish hospitality, the Guinness tour, plenty of racecourses, Temple Bar, Trinity College, let me stop!

Although there may be a few more Irish horses on this service than previously, I will still be mainly concentrating on all the in-running characters in UK racing, and there are plenty of them. For those who haven't read the column before, I try and take a unique approach to in-running trading. I look for plays that you can put up using the keep bet function (call the Betfair Helpdesk for information if you don't know about this) so you are not reacting to what IS happening in-running, but what is likely to happen. We have had plenty of success with this, mainly thanks to good old-fashioned home work.

The first horse I want to put up is a 5f specialist, which brings together my two great loves, a sprinter and a horse with an interesting in-running profile. I love the National Hunt game, and I love all the Classics on the Flat revolving around middle distance performers, BUT for me there is no greater sight than a big field sprint handicap with them blasting off from the start.

Now Breathless Kiss is a four-year-old filly whith sprint specialists all through her breeding. Given her US heritage it was no surprise that she picked up a couple of wins over the all-weather winter at Kempton and Lingfield but she proved she could still cope with the turf when winning at Beverley a little over a week ago.

Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her. Her record over the minimum trip on turf and the all-weather is five wins from eight starts, not a bad strike rate you have to admit. What I do believe is that she needs a strong pace to come off of, or a stiff finish, so that others are coming back at her.

The play on Breathless Kiss is to split your stakes, backing her both pre-race and then in-running at bigger odds. If you don't fancy her to win, you could lay her pre-race and try and trade your position in the race by backing her at bigger odds. She trades bigger during the race as she is often held up and must find a passage through with her late finish. She has traded double her starting price in the run on four of her five wins.

So there you have it, the first offering of the Flat season, and may I wish you all the best of luck for the coming week.

Neil Munro discusses a few more horses whose in-running price movements we should take note of....

Neil Munro brings his usual weekly bulletin from the world of in-play betting...


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