The Monday Football Column: Keep laying Liverpool

"The Reds are anywhere up to 2.77/4 for a top-six finish, and 5.24/1 to reach the top four. There’s still value in laying both of them."

Ralph Ellis' pre-season scepticism about Liverpool's latest reboot has been justified by a shaky start...

"Don't it always seem to go", sang Joni Mitchell, "that you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone." Ok, so You'll Never Walk Alone will always be the number one song at Anfield, but this week, at least, it seems Big Yellow Taxi might be number two in the charts.

It was more of a claret-and-blue taxi that took Andy Carroll away from Merseyside to go to West Ham last Thursday night. Who would have thought he would be missed so much, so quickly?

From the moment that Kenny Dalglish spent £35m to sign the big centre forward from Newcastle last January, there was always a large contingent of Kop fans who didn't want or rate him. Not a Liverpool player, they said. His touch wasn't good enough, he wasn't mobile enough, he wasn't creative enough. Waste of money.

And when Brendan Rodgers took over, it was soon pretty obvious that he shared those views. Within days the signals were being given through the media that Carroll could go, and when subtle hints weren't working Rodgers said it outright.

He got his wish when Carroll went. But Clint Dempsey, the man the manager thought was lined up as a replacement, went to Spurs instead and right now Liverpool are a team without anybody to do the most important job in football - put the ball in the net.

All the optimism that surrounded the appointment of Swansea's former manager has evaporated already. Back in early July, I suggested laying the Reds for both a top-six finish at 1.558/15 and a top-four finish at 3.7511/4. My reasoning was that Rodgers' attempts to change the style of football would take too much time. What we didn't know was that his attempts would also be hampered by a lack of resources in the transfer market.

This morning, the Reds are anywhere up to 2.77/4 for a top-six finish, and 5.24/1 to reach the top four. There's still value in laying both of them. Talk of an approach to Michael Owen might bring some romantic headlines but will his fitness record stand up to playing regularly in the Premier League?

Rodgers was recruited by Liverpool's owners who had wanted a different direction after spending huge fees on the likes of Carroll, Luis Suarez, Stewart Downing and Jordan Henderson without seeing any value for their money. But it meant his first task was to trim the wage bill. He's got eight players off the books and saved around £20million, which is smashing - except it has left him with a squad of just 19 to work with.

And while he was allowed to pay out £15m to bring in Joe Allen, at the moment the pocket-sized midfielder is not on the same wavelength as those around him. During his debut at West Brom, I lost count of the number of times he moved into space and showed for the ball, but didn't get it. A look at the TV pictures from yesterday's defeat by Arsenal suggested that hasn't changed too much.

Rodgers is undoubtedly a talented young coach. He's a deep thinker about football, about tactics and strategy. He has the ability to make the most of what's available.

But like any football manager, he's only as good as the players he can work with. And if his squad doesn't have a goalscorer, his team won't score too many goals.

Liverpool have got a recall clause for Carroll that kicks in on January 1. By then they might be preparing a Big Red Taxi to bring him back!

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The Monday Football Column: Clarke and Baggies a perfect fit

"If you’re looking for a value bet for the season, then West Brom in the top half ticks all the boxes you could ask for."

Ralph Ellis explains that not all successful coaches turn into poor managers, and why he believes Steve Clarke will do a very good job at West Brom this season...

One of football's more illogical maxims is that a good coach will never turn into a successful manager. The theory goes that putting on great training sessions is one thing, managing the fragile egos of top players is another.

True, there have been plenty of examples to justify the claim. Brian Kidd, brilliant assistant to Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United, had a nightmare 12 months in charge at Blackburn and has never worked as the number one since. Sammy Lee was such a good coach that he worked with a succession of different Liverpool managers before joining the England set up - and then managed to win one game in 11 in charge of Bolton while splitting what had been a united dressing room in the process.

But there are just as many who have made the success of stepping up. After all, if you've spent time looking and learning from top bosses, wouldn't that work as the perfect apprenticeship to take the helm?

I mention all this because many people have been lazily expecting Steve Clarke to fall flat on his face in his first management job at West Bromwich Albion. And despite an opening day 3-0 demolition of Liverpool, that is clearly still the view. The Baggies, tenth under Roy Hodgson last season, are anywhere between 3.3512/5 and 4.47/2 to finish in the top half this time.

Now I fully accept Romilly Evans' warning that you mustn't read too much into first day results. Otherwise after a 5-0 demolition of Norwich you would be putting down the £93 available on Fulham winning the Premier League at 1.000n/a and booking a Caribbean cruise for next May. But there were valid reasons for believing that Clarke could improve on Hodgson's work, even before the season began.

For a start, the players are the same. The list of those who have left The Hawthorns this summer covers only those let go on free transfers because West Brom didn't want them. Key defender and captain Jonas Olsson might not have signed a new contract but chairman Jeremy Peace has so far dug his heels in and refused to sell him either.

There have been, however, some excellent additions to the squad. Argentine international Claudio Jacob looked a sensational free transfer capture on the evidence of his debut on Saturday. A Bosman signing from Racing club de Avellaneda in Buenos Aires where he was club captain, he won tackles and used the ball with simplicity to dominate midfield.

On loan Romelu Lukaku is at the perfect club to take out his frustrations at getting so few chances at Stamford Bridge. And Swedish international Markus Rosenberg, as readers of his Betfair Big Interview will know, has scored goals in Holland, Germany and Spain.

Perhaps most important of all is that Clarke, while he will be picking the team, is still Head Coach under West Brom's well developed structure rather than manager. There is an established principle that football director Dan Ashworth handles all the contracts and recruitment. That leaves the head coach to concentrate on putting on good training sessions, and it didn't do either Roberto Di Matteo or Hodgson any harm in their career development.

In short Clarke has come to a club where he needs apply only a few tweaks to a well oiled machine to keep it running smoothly and maybe do better. If you're looking for a value bet for the season, then West Brom in the top half ticks all the boxes you could ask for.

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 14 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sunderland boss Martin O'Neill

Back Sunderland @ [1.54]; Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.1] in Crystal Palace v Ipswich; Back Hartlepool @ [2.08]; Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.72] in Crawley v Wimbledon; The Multiple pays approximately [11.5]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Sunderland v Wolves, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Sunderland [1.54], Wolves [7.2], The Draw [4.6]

It's hard to see where Wolves go to from here. Attempting to outmuscle and out-run Arsenal was probably the game-plan on Wednesday night but an early sending off and subsequent penalty meant the plan never really materialised. The fans and players have pretty much lost belief by now and Terry Connor will fight on because he's that sort of guy but even he won't believe a Great Escape is possible. Apart from anything else, they simply don't have the playing resources.

Sunderland had a bad day at the office at Goodison Park and both the result and the performance will have hurt Martin O'Neill. That's even more reason why they'll bounce back from that rather than let it be the start of a bad run. One of the teams in the division with the best recent home form plays the worst team in the division and it's probably more a question of "by how many" rather than "what will be the outcome".

Jamie Pacheco's selection: Back Sunderland @ [1.54]

Crystal Palace v Ipswich, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crystal Palace [2.88], Ipswich [2.72], The Draw [3.4]

The wheels have seemingly fell off Crystal Palace. The Eagles were right on the fringe of the play-off conundrum when they beat Barnsley six weeks ago but since then they have taken just one point from a possible 15 and fell down to 16th in the table. Their excellent home defensive record has gone up in smoke - six goals conceded at Selhurst Park in just three games, compared to five goals conceded in the 13 home games that went before.

Palace's confidence is obviously a bit low right now, which suggests backing Over 2.5 Goals is very sensible with Ipswich the visitors on Saturday. The Tractor Boys have been involved in some very high-scoring goals this term simply because they know how to score a few and sometimes don't know how to defend.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.1]

Hartlepool v Chesterfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Hartlepool [2.08], Chesterfield [4.0], The Draw [3.6]

Hartlepool have been gold dust recently for the Under 2.5 Goals backers. All of their last nine games have hit the target, with Pools scoring just three goals and conceding five during that spell of matches. An astonishing run. However, with a side that keep clean sheets and concede very few (18 in 21 all season at Victoria Park), they look a decent price to beat Chesterfield this weekend.

With the hosts' strong defensive record, it looks tough for John Sheridan's Spireites, who have won just twice away from home all season. Don't be fooled by their Monday 4-0 win over Wycombe (league's worst defence) as that is just a one-off that left not only Chairboys boss Gary Waddock flummoxed, but many others.

Hartlepool drew both games over Easter, but played fairly well in the 0-0 against Brentford on Monday. They tried to 'get at' the Bees and played at a tempo, but their 4-5-1 just doesn't allow too many openings. However, they ought to be strong enough to grind out a result here.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Hartlepool @ [2.08]

Crawley v Wimbledon, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crawley [1.5], Wimbledon [8.0], The Draw [4.7]

Life post Steve Evans begins in earnest for Crawley Town against their derby rivals AFC Wimbledon. The hosts should win, because the fourth-placed Red Devils have a great deal riding on the game against opponents who don't. The out-of-form Dons, who have lost their last three matches and their last four away games, have no fear of relegation. Is there enough intensity in this rivalry to fear an upset?

The hosts have already beaten Terry Brown's men twice this season, 3-2 in the Carling Cup and 5-2 on their own turf in October. But the odds are very short. Those two scorelines, however, represent a general trend in this fixture. Six of the eight meetings between the two have finished with over 2.5 goals being scored. So, even at the marginally better price of [1.72], that bet is the option offering more value.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.72]

Recommended Multiple

Back Sunderland @ [1.54]; Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.1] in Crystal Palace v Ipswich; Back Hartlepool @ [2.08]; Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.72] in Crawley v Wimbledon; The Multiple pays approximately [11.5]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 31 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Carlisle striker Lee Miller

Back Bolton @ [3.25]; Lay Leeds @ [1.9]; Back The Draw in Carlisle v Huddersfield @ [3.4]; Back Crewe @ [2.16]; The Multiple pays approximately [50.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Wolves v Bolton, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Wolves [2.4], Bolton [3.25], The Draw [3.6]

Two matches stick out like a sore thumb as incorrectly priced this weekend. One is Newcastle v Liverpool. How the Reds are [2.46] favourites to win that game is beyond me. Newcastle are eight points above them in the league table, are in better form, and have home advantage. Liverpool, need you reminding, have lost five out of their last six league games.

I will be backing Newcastle in that game obviously, but it is played on Sunday however so it is no good for inclusion in this column. The onus falls on Bolton instead, and I have to say that I'm equally surprised that they are [3.25] outsiders to beat hapless Wolves.

Terry Connor's men have lost six consecutive league games at Molineux and have conceded a staggering 20 goals in that time. They haven't won in front of their own fans for four months and they look absolutely drained of any confidence, which is obviously having a major impact on how they perform. Bolton meanwhile have won two league games on the bounce, and because of events off the pitch in the last fortnight they appear to have found some belief and fight which could well see them avoid the drop.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Bolton @ [3.25]

Leeds v Watford, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Leeds [1.89], Watford [4.6], The Draw [3.8]

It's certainly not game over for Leeds in terms of a play-off place, but with the teams from 6th to 14th only separated by six points, they have chosen the wrong time to hit an indifferent patch. New manager Neil Warnock has not been able to work the oracle so far, and United have won only two of their last seven. One home win in six attempts is the sort of stat that will stand between Leeds and a place in the top six come the end of the season, and they may well be running into Watford at just the wrong time.

The Hornets were as low as 22nd in mid-October, but Sean Dyche has steered his side to safety with a run of seven wins and three draws in 12 games since the end of January. With Watford currently unbeaten in six, and having lost just one of their last half dozen away fixtures, they could take something home with them.

Andrew French's selection: Lay Leeds @ [1.9]

Carlisle v Huddersfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Carlisle [3.4], Huddersfield [2.44], The Draw [3.4]

Carlisle's impressive home form has been the bedrock of a fine season, which has enabled their assault on the play-offs to remain on course. The Foxes are unbeaten at Brunton Park since September and have enjoyed a profitable March.

On-loan striker Jordan Cook netted both goals in Carlisle's 2-1 win over fellow promotion chasers the MK Dons on Tuesday, in what was an open and at times, breathless game. Cook is a good addition, but their best player is fellow forward Lee Miller. His hold-up play and aerial threat suits the team formation superbly.

Meanwhile, Huddersfield's own goal machine Jordan Rhodes netted his 35th of the season against Charlton last weekend to secure a vital 1-0 win over the league leaders. But looking at their away form, the Terriers have drawn far too many games - which was always the problem under Lee Clarke and it might be worth taking a chance on the bigger priced draw for two in-form teams.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back The Draw @ [3.4]

Crewe v Northampton, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crewe [2.16], Northampton [3.9], The Draw [3.5]

Crewe have had a great run and are unbeaten in eight games, young and highly-rated forward Nick Powell always prominent. Just three defeats since the turn of the year have left them wondering if they can reach the play-offs. They need to beat Northampton if they are to continue that surge but that will be no easy task.

The Cobblers have been greatly improved under Aidy Boothroyd, their strong run waning a little with defeat to Accrington, a narrow and late win - perhaps undeserved - at desperate Burton and a goalless draw with fellow strugglers Plymouth. The Cobblers need a few more points to be sure of staying up, but that might have to wait.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Crawley @ [2.16]

Recommended Multiple

Back Bolton @ [3.25]; Lay Leeds @ [1.9]; Back The Draw in Carlisle v Huddersfield @ [3.4]; Back Crewe @ [2.16]; The Multiple pays approximately [50.0]

*Last week's Multiple was successful and was available to back at combined odds of just over [20.0] prior to kick-off

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 24 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Wolves boss Terry Connor

Back Norwich @ [1.81]; Back Over 2.5 Goals in Watford v Ipswich @ [1.78]; Back The Draw in Colchester v Carlisle @ [3.5]; Back Crawley @ [1.7]; The Multiple pays approximately [19.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Norwich v Wolves, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Norwich [1.81], Wolves [5.1], The Draw [3.9]

I don't think I'm being cruel by saying that Wolves have become a bit of a laughing stock since they sacked Mick McCarthy. They tried desperately to bring in an experienced manager but it seemed everyone turned them down, and eventually Terry Connor - with no previous managerial experience whatsoever - was appointed. Wolves have conceded 14 goals in just four games under his leadership!

Norwich haven't been in the best of form lately either, but they remain pretty solid at Carrow Road; in fact their only three defeats on home soil since September have come at the hands of Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United. Wolves certainly don't fall into the class of those three, and with confidence shattered amongst Connor's men, I fear they'll lose again.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Norwich @ [1.81]

Watford v Ipswich, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Watford [2.66], Ipswich [2.88], The Draw [3.6]

This is classic mid-table end-of-season fodder. Both sides are 19 points clear of the drop despite having flirted with trouble earlier in the season, and although they are only nine points short of the play-off positions, finishing in the top six looks unlikely. So, the shackles are off and both can relax.

Last week's goalless draw with Coventry ended a run of six consecutive games at Vicarage Road that had produced more than 2.5 goals. Having been there, the Coventry fixture could have easily done so as well, and Watford have generally played out high-scoring home games with those around them in the table: 60% of the games at Vicarage Road against bottom-half sides have delivered more than 2.5 goals.

Ipswich have the worst defensive record in the division, which has contributed to their 37 matches so far generating a whopping 125 goals (3.38 a game on average). Like Watford, they seem to serve up goal feasts against sides of similar stature: seven of their nine away fixtures at bottom-half sides have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals.

Andrew French's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.78]

Colchester v Carlisle, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Colchester [2.34], Carlisle [3.3], The Draw [3.5]

Colchester are one of the in-form teams at the moment, with an eight game unbeaten run heading into this weekend's clash between two potential play-off contenders. The Essex club look a very fit side of late, possessing plenty of pace but lacking a finishing kick. Manager John Ward is a cute tactician and will be looking to create a few more openings this Saturday.

Ward's team have been involved in five straight Under 2.5 Goals affairs recently, and are looking very strong defensively. However, they do have goalscorers in the team.

Carlisle are a much better unit when forward Lee Miller is leading the line. His hold-up play and linking is crucial to United, which was highly apparent when he was suspended. Carlisle's home form has been a revelation, and are on course to make the play-offs. Manager Greg Abbott has a good determined group at his disposal, and I like the way their play has improved with crosses into the box.

It's a very tight clash to call as both will look to take something from the game bearing their league positions. Under 2.5 Goals looks a possibility, but it might be worth chancing the bigger price draw.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back The Draw @ [3.5]

Crawley v Rotherham, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crawley [1.7], Rotherham [6.0], The Draw [4.0]

Rotherham released their spleen on Macclesfield in midweek after Andy Scott was sacked and former Oxford boss Darren Pattison stepped up from his assistant to take the reins. So that got the "new boss wins first game" out of the way in time to visit the Broadfield, where Crawley are making noises that should be music to punters' ears: Never mind entertainment, we're here to grind out victories was the message on and off the field on Tuesday, when they beat free-scoring, often free-conceding Gillingham 1-0.

The Reds' new-look strike force of Leon Clarke and Gary Alexander looks like a potent partnership. The Millers' big pull of a £20million new stadium back in the town next season will mean they attract good candidates, but will take their time to decide. Two wins after three draws puts Crawley back in the driving seat for a promotion push.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Crawley @ [1.7]

Recommended Multiple

Back Norwich @ [1.81]; Back Over 2.5 Goals in Watford v Ipswich @ [1.78]; Back The Draw in Colchester v Carlisle @ [3.5]; Back Crawley @ [1.7]; The Multiple pays approximately [19.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 03 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bristol Rovers boss Mark McGhee

Lay Chelsea @ [2.0]; Back Under 2.5 Goals in Crystal Palace v Peterborough @ [1.88]; Back The Draw in Colchester v Preston @ [3.5]; Back Bristol Rovers @ [1.66]; The Multiple pays approximately [22.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

West Brom v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: West Brom [4.3], Chelsea [2.02], The Draw [3.6]

It probably takes a brave man to a) oppose West Brom at the Hawthorns after their last two league performances, and b) back Chelsea away from home given their current form away from Stamford Bridge. But that's partially the reason why we can back the Blues at odds against for this encounter.

Albion have scored nine in their last two league games but one of those games was against a poor Wolves side and the other was against a Sunderland side that simply didn't turn up. Prior to last week West Brom had taken just a single point from the last 18 available to them on home soil at that is the form I'm prepared to concentrate on here.

Chelsea haven't been brilliant of late admittedly but the fact remains they have lost just one of their last eight away games in the league, and I thought they put in a good performance when losing to Napoli in their last away trip. They got back to winning ways last weekend and I fancy them to record back-to-back league wins at the Baggies expense.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Chelsea @ [2.02]

Crystal Palace v Peterborough, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Crystal Palace [2.04], Peterborough [4.1], The Draw [3.7]

If you ignore the 4-0 rout of Watford last time (and being a Watford fan, I'm keen to) Crystal Palace have not been frequent scorers at home: in their previous nine games at Selhurt Park they netted just six times, and never more than once in any fixture. Their home fixtures produced an average of only 1.8 goals, the lowest in the division.

Visitors Peterborough have had a reputation as the Championship's goal merchants, but that has been less of the case since December. They have averaged less than a goal a game in their last 12 fixtures, and have only once scored more than a goal in any of those games. Indeed, Under 2.5 Goals would have been a winning bet in six of their last seven away matches - marry that with the fact that more than 70% of Palace home fixtures would have paid out on the same market, and Unders is the way to go.

Andrew French's selection: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.88]

Colchester v Preston, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Colchester [2.14], Preston [3.9], The Draw [3.5]

A classic mid-table tussle this weekend involving 12th against 13th. Colchester have drawn their last two games against Oldham and Rochdale with manager John Ward describing their most recent performance as 'strong rather than gifted'.

The Essex side are physical and can rely on set-pieces. Ward changed his formation slightly against Oldham last Saturday, rather than the more narrow set-up against Rochdale. However, they can struggle to carve open teams and find scoring opportunities.

Preston have conceded just two goals in their last three games - which is not a surprise under their new boss Graham Westley. His footballing philosophy is not to give goals away. The bedrock of all Westley side's remains the defensive organisation, and his time at Deepdale continues to be a work in progress.

In short, both could cancel each other out with the draw making most appeal.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back The Draw @ [3.5]

Bristol Rovers v Macclesfield, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bristol Rovers [1.66], Macclesfield [6.2], The Draw [4.0]

Odds-makers have definitely caught up with the improvement in the Pirates since Mark McGhee took over from Paul Buckle. One defeat in seven tells you why, even if the last three games have produced one goal in their favour, but reaped four points. Not everything can be expected to go right in the rebuilding process. Now, however, mid-table security gives the hosts a basis on which to build. Scott McGleish, Eliot Richards and Chris Zebroski are enjoying themselves, it seems. Macclesfield are not. A Michael Duberry own goal giving them a point against Oxford and a George Donnelly last-gasp equaliser to deny Plymouth is hardly reason for huge celebration for Paul Simpson, whose side lost eight on the trot before those two points. Back the hosts.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Bristol Rovers @ [1.66]

Recommended Multiple

Lay Chelsea @ [2.0]; Back Under 2.5 Goals in Crystal Palace v Peterborough @ [1.88]; Back The Draw in Colchester v Preston @ [3.5]; Back Bristol Rovers @ [1.66]; The Multiple pays approximately [22.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Two And A Half Goals Column: Loftus Road goal glut

Daily Tipping / The Inside Man / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Clint Dempsey has been Fulham's go-to man when it comes to goals

"Martin Jol’s team are unrecognisable from the clean-sheet wonders of early season, and instead now choose to slug-it-out with teams ‘ala’ Rocky versus Apollo Creed. "

The Inside Man continues to use his inside knowledge to find the best bets from this weekend's over/under 2.5 goals markets.

Saturday

QPR v Fulham

This London derby stands-out as the place to find Premier League goals on Saturday, with both sides likely to get on the score-sheet.

Since taking over at QPR on January 10, Mark Hughes has brought in forwards Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora. Hughes clearly recognised QPR's lack of firepower and looked to remedy the problem quickly. As a result, four home games, out of the five since his arrival, have produced more than two and a half goals. The only cagey affair was, quite understandably, his first game in charge.

That doesn't bode well for a Fulham side who haven't kept a clean sheet in their last nine. Martin Jol's team are unrecognisable from the clean-sheet wonders of early season, and instead now choose to slug-it-out with teams 'ala' Rocky versus Apollo Creed. Five of Fulham's last six games have gone over on goals, with Clint Dempsey's efforts fuelling a team who've netted in eight of their last nine games.

Goals look set to be the main course here, in what should be a healthy serving of attacking football.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.12]

Charlton v Stevenage

Charlton sit top of the League One table, and continue to rumble towards the title despite a conspicuous lack of goals. It's seven games since Charlton scored more than once. Luckily for manager Chris Powell though, his defense has been on top form.

This is evident from Charlton's last seven matches at home. Only one of those games went over two and a half goals, yet amazingly the Addicks were unbeaten in that time, taking 15 points from a possible 21.

As for Stevenage, well they look unlikely to spoil this low-scoring run. Of their last 12 matches, four were goalless, with a further four ending 1-0. Meanwhile, their road form has been especially prudent, with six of their last eight away games going under the goals mark.

It's important to note, that from their last 17 matches, the only ones to go over two and a half goals were those won by Stevenage. So with a Stevenage win at the Valley available at large odds-against, the chance of goals should be considered equally unlikely.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.81]

Sunday

Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Rangers

Short on money, form, points and luck, it looks like being a surprisingly rough end to the season for Rangers.

Surprises, they say though, only come to those who aren't looking. And just as Rangers' financial strife could have been seen coming a long time ago, if you look carefully, you'll also see that a lack of goals shouldn't be a surprise for their trip to Inverness.

The signs are there. More than half of Rangers' away games have gone under two and a half goals, including their match at the Caledonian Stadium earlier this season, which Rangers won 2-0.

Indeed there's no reason to think Ally McCoist's team, nor any other side, should have it easy against Inverness at present. Caley's last six games have produced a total of just seven goals. Even a rampant Celtic side could only manage a 1-0 victory, despite having home advantage.

And with top-scorer Nikica Jelavic having been recently sold, the Rangers attack looks less potent now than it has at any time this season, making a low-scoring encounter the confident call here.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.87]

Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao

Here are two teams that have every reason to go for the win, and hence goals, on Sunday.

Villarreal lie just three points above the relegation zone, and will understand that getting as many wins as possible from their remaining home games will be crucial to their survival hopes. As for Athletic Bilbao, they lie fourth in the table, seven points behind the pot of gold that would be an automatic Champions League position. For them to close that gap, only wins will do.

Not that either side needs much motivation to go on the attack. The goals have been flowing freely for both sides, at either end of the pitch, as of late. Seven of Villarreal's last eight games have gone over two and a half goals, with only an understandable parking of the bus, to achieve a 0-0 draw against Barcelona, having blotted their copybook. Bilbao meanwhile have been unrelenting, with their last six matches all going over the goals mark, at an average of four goals per game.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]

Jonno Turner anticipates a disappointing conclusion to the week for Reggina and Angers, with Pescara and Bastia helping him to end it on a high......

The Europa League is dominating Jonno Turner's thoughts on Thursday, as he backs first-leg blank-firers Anderlecht and Udinese to deliver at the second attempt......

Ligue 1 and Serie A are the two leagues featured in today's column. But who is the good thing to win at home and who should we back to win away?...

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Norwich boss Paul Lambert field a full-strength side against Leicester?

Back Norwich @ [1.89]; Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leeds v Doncaster @ [1.82]; Back Bournemouth @ [2.42]; Lay Southend @ [1.74]; The multiple pays approximately [20.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Norwich v Leicester, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Norwich [1.89], Leicester [4.6], The Draw [3.8]

Decades ago, perhaps even just a few years ago even, there would be no question whatsoever over the strength of line-up a manager would field for a FA Cup tie; he would simply select the strongest side available to him. Unfortunately those days are gone and you can never be certain how a newly-promoted Premier League side, desperately trying to get to that magical 42 point mark as quickly as possible, will line-up when it comes to a cup competition.

Norwich are sitting pretty in the Premier League, and with their next league game not until eight days time, boss Paul Lambert should field a full strength side for the visit of Leicester. Should being the operative word. And if they are then [1.89] about a home victory looks a decent wager. I won't go into stats or recent results, put simply, at full-strength Norwich are the better outfit.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Norwich @ [1.89]

Leeds v Doncaster, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Leeds [1.65], Doncaster [6.0], The Draw [4.1]

It doesn't get much worse than losing to struggling Coventry: the midweek defeat certainly didn't help Neil Redfearn's chances of landing the job at Leeds on a permanent basis. One thing the Whites have done during their current indifferent run is keep scoring: they have netted at least once in each of their last eight league games, and have only failed to score five times all season. Their home games average exactly three goals each, and that is likely to continue when they host the team with the worst defensive away record in the division.

Doncaster concede at a rate of 2.2 goals per game on the road, and now find themselves bottom of the table. A run of six defeats in seven away games suggests they will struggle to achieve much at Elland Road. A whopping 73% of Rovers' away games have delivered 2.5 goals or more - you've got to fancy that to be extended this weekend.

Andrew French's selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.82]

Rochdale v Bournemouth, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Rochdale [3.4], Bournemouth [2.42], The Draw [3.4]

Bournemouth's play-off hopes were dented on Tuesday at Leyton Orient, but this looks a good opportunity to make inroads into fellow promotion hopefuls Stevenage and Carlisle United.

I was encouraged by several aspects of their play in midweek, despite losing 2-1. They passed the ball better than Orient, they had more possession and created enough chances to win the game. The only downside was the lack of a clinical edge up front, surprising considering their costly January window signing Matt Tubbs was in the line-up.

The Cherries were involved in a dour affair at Hartlepool last Saturday, drawing 0-0. But their away from in December was excellent, winning two and drawing one. Their squad now looks much stronger with the additions of Tubbs and Donal McDermott, and they have a classier edge to their team than Rochdale. The latter is an extremely gifted player with an eye for a pass.

The Dale gained their first win under new boss John Coleman at the end of January, beating Bury 3-0. Coleman described it as like watching Brazil or Inter Milan, and was mystified at their rock-bottom league position. However, if anyone is going to play like Brazil this weekend, it should be Bournemouth.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Bournemouth @ [2.42]

Southend v Crewe, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Southend [1.75], Crewe [5.3], The Draw [4.0]

Could Southend's win at Gillingham last Monday be enough to restore their confidence and winning ways permanently after just one point in four league games before that? Not for me. Andy Hessenthaler's side have only three points, from a win over Aldershot, to show for their last six league games. The jury is out. Therefore Paul Sturrock's Southend are still on my "lay" list, a tactic that has paid dividends on the last two Saturdays. This time my assessment is because Crewe have five wins from seven games. Nick Powell and Greg Pearson are just two players to watch out for.

Ian Lamont's selection: Lay Southend @ [1.76]

Recommended Multiple

Back Norwich @ [1.89]; Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leeds v Doncaster @ [1.82]; Back Bournemouth @ [2.42]; Lay Southend @ [1.74]; The multiple pays approximately [20.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Daily Tipping / Four By Four / 03 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

New Portsmouth boss Michael Appleton

Back Arsenal @ [1.62]; Back Portsmouth @ [1.84]; Back MK Dons @ [1.85]; Back Southend @ [2.2]; The multiple pays approximately [12.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Wigan v Arsenal, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Wigan [6.4], Arsenal [1.62], The Draw [4.2]

Apologies for the short price selection, but with Manchester City ([1.2]) and Tottenham ([1.32]) looking like home bankers, and the other two afternoon kick-offs being too difficult to call, then Arsenal automatically became the choice.

The Gunners are one of the form teams in the Premier League having taken 16 points from a possible 18 and they'll be geared up to bounce back from last week's disappointing home draw with Fulham. Arsene Wenger's men have scored seven goals in their last two away games and now face a Wigan side that lost eight on the bounce prior to taking four points from bottom of the table Blackburn and out-of-form Sunderland. The Latics will face a much sterner test in the form of Arsenal, and they are very likely to return to losing ways.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Arsenal @ [1.62]

Portsmouth v Coventry, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Portsmouth [1.84], Coventry [5.2], The Draw [3.7]

When you're as bad as Portsmouth are on the road, you need to be getting plenty of points on your own turf. New manager Michael Appleton will console himself that while Pompey have not managed an away win all season, their home record would not look out of place in the top 10 of the table. They have won three and drawn the other of their last four at Fratton Park, and have conceded just seven goals in their nine home games all season. That is bad news for Coventry, the division's lowest away scorers (just five in nine outings).

The Sky Blues have not taken maximum points on their travels, losing six and drawing the other three games. They have not won at all in eight attempts, and the fact they have conceded every time they have left the Ricoh Arena suggests Pompey are good for at least one goal - which may well be enough for all three points.

Andrew French's selection: Back Portsmouth @ [1.84]

Barnet v MK Dons, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Barnet [4.7], MK Dons [1.85], The Draw [4.0]

The famous Underhill slope plays host to the free scoring MK Dons this weekend, in what sets up an intriguing FA Cup second round encounter.

The Dons have hit a staggering 20 goals in their last five matches, including a first round demolition job on Nantwich, who were beaten 6-0. Since then Karl Robinson's side have hit Colchester 5-1 and Wycombe 4-3 in a pulsating Buckinghamshire derby. The latter, was described as Robinson as the best 30 minutes of football he has seen this season. Some of their play can be sensational, and goals are coming from everywhere.

Barnet are good travellers, but have been a side quite nervy at home. Manager Lawrie Sanchez has brought in some new, younger faces recently, mixed with a nice blend of experience. Last Friday's 2-1 home win against Macclesfield was a sign that maybe their home form is turning.

However, MK's football can be so fluent and crisp at times, Barnet might get stretched all over the place, and the [1.85] on offer looks too good to turn down.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back MK Dons @ [1.85]

Southend v Oldham, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Southend [2.2], Oldham [3.5], The Draw [3.5]

Paul Sturrock's side must fancy their chances of causing another upset after narrowly sending out Preston, who are similarly placed to Oldham in League One, in the last round. Liam Dickinson's seven goals are reason to take notice, while Kane Ferdinand is grabbing headlines as a "distant" cousin to the more famous Anton and Rio. The Blues have not lost in 16, quite remarkable, and won't want to give that up easily.

Oldham beat tricky customers Burton in the last round and showed resolve on the road to Bournemouth. They also have a class scorer in the shape of Shefki Kuqi, if he is on his game, and Southend's defence that is rarely ever breached more than once a game will have to be fully on its metal. That adage that if a team is doing well in the league it should do well in the cup will need to be proven by the League Two leaders, but they could well prevail.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Southend @ [2.2]

Recommended Multiple

Back Arsenal @ [1.62]; Back Portsmouth @ [1.84]; Back MK Dons @ [1.85]; Back Southend @ [2.2]; The multiple pays approximately [12.0]

Over in Argentina this evening, Estudiantes, a side who have won just two of their last 13 matches at home, take on All Boys, a side who have lost just one of their last eight away from home. Paul Robinson...

Jonno Turner expects Crystal Palace to build on their Carling Cup heroics, and can see no end in sight to the staggering demise of Monaco......

Jonno Turner is focussing his attention on the Europa League this evening, backing Vaslui and Anderlecht to kick off Advent in style......

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Two and a half goals column: The Weekend's best bets

Two And A Half Goals / The Inside Man / 03 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Never mind the new life, we'll just settle for over 2.5 goals in today's match thank you very much

"This makes top of the table Rotherham the perfect visitors to secure the goals we need. They always pack plenty of goals for their travels, with 10 of their last 12 away games going over the two and a half mark."

The Inside Man turns his attentions to English and Scottish domestic football over the weekend in search of the best bets in the ever-popular over/under 2.5 goals markets on Betfair.

SWINDON v ROTHERHAM

Reality is biting for Paulo Di Canio after three months at Swindon. Five games in and his side lie near the foot of League Two with just one victory. Even at this stage, the Italian's first foray into club management looks in danger of being derailed.

The reality is that Swindon's only win came against one of the few teams below them, Crewe. Consecutive 1-0 away losses suggest a cautious approach on the road. Swindon's game-plan at home though has been much more adventurous with both matches going over the two and a half goals mark. With the pressure growing to secure a 2nd win, expect that search for goals to become ever more ambitious.

This makes top of the table Rotherham the perfect visitors to secure the goals we need. They always pack plenty of goals for their travels, with 10 of their last 12 away games going over the two and a half mark. Expect both sides to be going for goals, with Swindon needing them and Rotherham expecting them.

Recommended Bet:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.83]

MORECAMBE v BRADFORD

Staying in League Two, we can expect a much tighter encounter when Morecambe host Bradford.

Morecambe manager Jim Bentley was appointed in May and has used the off-season to concentrate on improving his side's defence, with immediate results. Last season the Shrimps achieved eight clean sheets in their entire campaign, yet they've already managed three shut-outs and conceded just two goals in their opening five games of this season.

Bentley made it clear how his team will approach their games with this recent statement - "It's always nice when you score but the kick I used to get as a defender was when you kept clean sheets."

Meanwhile, don't expect a gung-ho approach from visitors Bradford. New manager Phil Parkinson is preparing for just his first game in charge, so expect an approach of extreme caution away to the side sitting 2nd in the league. The Bradford defence has conceded just twice on the road this season and has shown it has the mettle to keep this one tight as well.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.91]

SUNDAY

HAYES & YEADING v TAMWORTH

Sometimes things can be as obvious as they seem and it seems that when these sides meet there are lots of goals.

Last season, their two encounters produced a total of eight goals, with Hayes edging victory 3-2 and 2-1. That should give Hayes every confidence of repeating the feat, especially when considering their unbeaten home record so far this season.

Hayes's last home game, against Luton, was a real thriller that produced four first half goals. Expect them to again be looking for an early breakthrough, against a team they have a knack of scoring against.

Tamworth's defence has shown signs of loosening as of late and this forced the team to show real character last week to fight back from two goals down and salvage a draw against Telford. There have been first half goals in all their away games this season, which should be enough to light the blue touch paper for this encounter and ensure us plenty of goal action. Let the fireworks begin!

Recommended Bet:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL v GREENOCK MORTON

The top two sides in Scottish Division One meet in the Challenge Cup.

Cup ties, the place where dreams come true and the impossible becomes reality, complete with Hollywood ending. Yes, very, very occasionally. More often that not though, what we get is two teams slogging it out with plenty of blood and guts but very little quality.

Hamilton will go on the attack but will they be able to break down a Morton side whose defence has been the key to their strong start to the season? All three of their away games have gone under two and a half goals this season. Two clean sheets on the road out of three shows their stubbornness. Having reached Round Five of the Scottish Cup last year, Morton will be looking for another impressive cup run and will play to their strengths to achieve that.

With rain and wind forecast, expect a good old-fashioned mud-bath cup-match. High on mud and strong challenges but short on goal chances.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.89]

Neil Harvey talks us through four European games where backing either Under or Over 2.5 Goals looks an appealing option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

QPR’s title celebrations might be put on hold once more at Vicarage Road

"QPR's away form against the Championship's better sides is not impressive - they have won only two of their 10 games when visiting top-half teams."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Blackpool v Stoke

Blackpool didn't get the win last week against Newcastle when I put them up as a selection but they did do enough to win two or three games by all accounts. Newcastle scored completely against the run of play, and the Tangerines had at least two genuine penalty appeals turned down. On the plus side, Ian Holloway's men did score for the 17th consecutive game at Bloomfield Road and they narrowly climbed out of the drop zone.

Stoke's midweek win against Wolves means they are completely safe now, so with injuries starting to mount up Tony Pulis can turn his attention to the FA Cup final and rest a few of his better players. That's not to say the players that come in won't be trying because with a Wembley final on the horizon, everyone at the club will be busting a gut to win a place in the team. But ability wise, some of the Stoke fringe players aren't as good as the usual starting line-up and Blackpool might just be in a better frame of mind to take full advantage.

This really is last chance saloon for Holloway's men, and I'm desperate for them to win, not only for this column, but for the entertainment factor they bring to the Premier League.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Blackpool to beat Stoke at [2.82]

Watford v QPR

It would be something of a travesty if QPR didn't finish the season atop the table, as they have been there virtually all season. Whether they get to stay there remains to be seen with all the talk of possible points deductions but, on the pitch, Rangers have been the best side. Having said that, I think they may have to settle for no more than a point in this one. Their away form against the Championship's better sides is not impressive - they have won only two of their 10 games when visiting top-half teams. And they suffered their only home defeat to Watford, who have one of the best attacks in the division and have scored at least once in each of their last 15 home games. The Hornets have nothing to play for, but that equates to no pressure and certainly no nerves, unlike QPR who could feel it a bit trying to get the point needed to secure promotion.

Andrew French's selection: Lay QPR v Watford at [2.36]

MK Dons v Notts County

The MK Dons surprisingly lost both of their matches over Easter, yet according to manager Karl Robinson deserved more. Saturday's 3-1 defeat to Huddersfield was described by Robinson as 'a near perfect performance'. An odd thing to say after a defeat, but they were definitely the better side. The Buckinghamshire outfit need to make sure their season doesn't end with a whimper, and one victory will seal their place in the play-offs. I have often praised the Dons this season for their style and flair, which is a crucial angle into this weekend's game.

Notts County have collected seven points from their last three matches under Martin Allen, almost unheard of pre-Mad Dog days. However, there is more to Allen than his bite, he is a very clever and highly skilled coach, and has got belief, energy and passion back into this team. County lined up with a new 3-5-2 against Brentford last Monday with a view of getting hold of the ball in the middle, and Allen might have to do the same here, as the MK Dons keep the ball brilliantly - and might not give it back.

The home side are due to give someone a beating, and have been creating lots of chances. Robinson has his team set up to carve opponents up at will, and for all Notts County's improved run of form, the Dons are one of the best sides in the division.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back MK Dons to beat Notts County at [1.93]

Gillingham v Macclesfield

This has to be the biggest gimme in League Two this weekend if Gillingham are to assert themselves for a play-off push. The saving graces of defeat to Barnet are that the visitors were desperate for a win at the wrong end of the table and, in the Gills' case, that Andy Barcham scored twice. It shows that Andy Hessenthaler's men have a striker of note other than Cody McDonald, the 24-goal striker. Barcham has scored six in his 22 appearances (another to knock Rotherham out of the play-off race) but the suspicion remains that if you stop McDonald, you stop the Kent club.

The Silkmen should prove lesser opponents, after one win in eight - at out of form Cheltenham - and have nothing to play for. If Gillingham can't beat them, their play-off hopes deserve to be finished. This is the perfect chance to improve on their home form, where there have been too many draws lately.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Gillingham to beat Macclesfield at [1.6]

Recommended Multiple

Back Blackpool @ [2.82]; Lay QPR @ [2.36]; Back MK Dons @ [1.93]; Back Gillingham @ [1.6]; The multiple pays approximately [15.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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In-Running Week: Column returns for the Flat!

Neil Munro / Neil Munro / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Breathless Kiss make your an in-running profit this summer?

"Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her."

Neil Munro may have moved from England to Ireland but he still loves the game and the opportunities for In-Play trading on Betfair. He returns with one to watch in spring handicaps this spring and summer

It has been a while since the last In-Running Week after I relocated from Stevenage to Dublin as my Betfair job moved across the Irish Sea. Don't you miss Stevenage I hear you cry? What has Dublin got that Stevenage hasn't? A beautiful coastline near-by, Irish hospitality, the Guinness tour, plenty of racecourses, Temple Bar, Trinity College, let me stop!

Although there may be a few more Irish horses on this service than previously, I will still be mainly concentrating on all the in-running characters in UK racing, and there are plenty of them. For those who haven't read the column before, I try and take a unique approach to in-running trading. I look for plays that you can put up using the keep bet function (call the Betfair Helpdesk for information if you don't know about this) so you are not reacting to what IS happening in-running, but what is likely to happen. We have had plenty of success with this, mainly thanks to good old-fashioned home work.

The first horse I want to put up is a 5f specialist, which brings together my two great loves, a sprinter and a horse with an interesting in-running profile. I love the National Hunt game, and I love all the Classics on the Flat revolving around middle distance performers, BUT for me there is no greater sight than a big field sprint handicap with them blasting off from the start.

Now Breathless Kiss is a four-year-old filly whith sprint specialists all through her breeding. Given her US heritage it was no surprise that she picked up a couple of wins over the all-weather winter at Kempton and Lingfield but she proved she could still cope with the turf when winning at Beverley a little over a week ago.

Kevin Ryan does well with sprinting types and Breathless Kiss still has more improvement in her. Her record over the minimum trip on turf and the all-weather is five wins from eight starts, not a bad strike rate you have to admit. What I do believe is that she needs a strong pace to come off of, or a stiff finish, so that others are coming back at her.

The play on Breathless Kiss is to split your stakes, backing her both pre-race and then in-running at bigger odds. If you don't fancy her to win, you could lay her pre-race and try and trade your position in the race by backing her at bigger odds. She trades bigger during the race as she is often held up and must find a passage through with her late finish. She has traded double her starting price in the run on four of her five wins.

So there you have it, the first offering of the Flat season, and may I wish you all the best of luck for the coming week.

Neil Munro discusses a few more horses whose in-running price movements we should take note of....

Neil Munro brings his usual weekly bulletin from the world of in-play betting...

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

West Ham striker Demba Ba nearly joined Stoke in January

"Neil Warnock’s QPR still only have one home defeat against their name, and they have only failed to score twice at Loftus Road this season."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

West Ham v Stoke

The Hammers should take great confidence from their relatively easy victory over Liverpool last weekend; a reproduction of that form will almost certainly be good enough to see off a Stoke side that have lost five consecutive away games, the last four without scoring. Although occupying one of the relegation slots, the Hammers are just six points behind 10th place Stoke and they enter this game in decent form having won four of their last six games (all competitions). Scott Parker will be inspirational as ever in the middle of the park, but wouldn't it be just ironic if striker Demba Ba got on the scoresheet; the West Ham striker almost joined the Potters in the January transfer window but failed a medical before joining his current club.

Mike Norman's selection: Back West Ham to beat Stoke at [2.3]

QPR v Leicester

You'll not get many chances to back league leaders QPR in a home fixture at odds-against this season, this is one of those rare occasions - and I think layers are paying Leicester a huge compliment in the way they have priced this game. True, Leicester have been on a great run and have moved up the table to the point where they look a live play-off contender. But have a closer look at their away form; they have lost 10 of 17 on the road, a total only surpassed by relegation scrappers Crystal Palace and Scunthorpe. What's more, the Foxes have really struggled when travelling to face top-half sides; they have lost six of eight and only scored four times. Neil Warnock's QPR still only have one home defeat against their name, and they have only failed to score twice at Loftus Road this season. They have won three of their last four on their own turf, and have not lost at all since New Year's Day.

Andrew French's selection: Back QPR to beat Leicester at [2.28]

Bristol Rovers v Dagenham & Redbridge

The proverbial relegation six-pointer here, with the sides occupying 22nd and 23rd in the division going head-to-head, and a match which could have a major bearing on League One survival.

Bristol Rovers addressed their horrendous slump and shocking defending, by winning 1-0 against Oldham, but have since lost their last two by the odd-goal, and are struggling to score. However in forward Will Hoskins, they have a player who has genuine quality who can nick a game with a flash of brilliance. Dagenham will need to keep Hoskins quiet here, and will see this as a chance to get three points. Yeovil have hauled themselves out of the drop zone with 36 points, and with the Daggers on 30 points, a draw might not be much use.

The Londoners have played two top sides recently (in Huddersfield and Bournemouth), and showed a good level of performance in both, and unluckily lost the latter. Manager John Still is an old head, who will have his team competing to the death. It might not be pretty here, but if the visitors get plenty of balls into the box to ruffle the hosts, the price might be worth taking a chance on an away victory.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Dagenham & Redbridge to beat Bristol Rovers at [3.2]

Gillingham v Bradford

Peter Jackson's appointment in interim charge of Bradford has not gone down well with fans, who see him as the man Lincoln sacked last season. They had to get someone and he at least knew the club, although there has been a 35-year hiatus. Clearly, with interviews on-going, Jackson is not stable in the role, which breeds doubt and confusion all round. Gillingham should take advantage. They have turned into draw specialists, but that is just an accident of the misfortune of facing quality sides such as Shrewsbury and Bury and then Aldershot, who are not in the quality bracket but at least are now working hard and themselves drawing frequently. Just two defeats in 18 games suggests Cody McDonald and co will have little trouble dispatching the Bantams.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Gillingham to beat Bradford at [1.82]

Recommended Multiple

Back West Ham @ [2.3]; Back QPR @ [2.28]; Back Dagenham & Redbridge @ [3.2]; Back Gillingham @ [1.82]; The multiple pays approximately [30.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Blackpool’s Charlie Adam is suspended for his club’s trip to Wolves

"The Tangerines have been picking up points by out-scoring the opposition but the worry here is that the architect behind Blackpool’s goals – Charlie Adam – is suspended for this encounter."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Wolves v Blackpool

I read somewhere this week that Wolves are unpredictable; I disagree, they beat the top clubs (Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea etc) and lose to the bottom clubs (West Ham and Wigan for example). How is that unpredictable? Seriously, I know what people mean when they refer to Mick McCarthy's men as a bit in-and-out but that perception might change if they - as they are expected to do - beat Blackpool on Saturday.

Ian Holloway's men have bee a terrific addition to the Premier League this season and I sincerely hope they stay up. But in all honesty their defence is woeful; how they didn't concede six at home to Tottenham in midweek is a mystery. The Tangerines have been picking up points by out-scoring the opposition but the worry here is that the architect behind Blackpool's goals - Charlie Adam - is suspended for this encounter. It will still be a tough game for Wolves, but on an afternoon of difficult games in the Premier League, Wanderers just about get the nod to succeed.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Wolves to beat Blackpool at [1.91]

Crystal Palace v Reading

November 9, that's ages ago, right? Incredibly, that was the day when Crystal Palace last conceded a goal at home. Since then, they have played 12 hours of Championship football at Selhurst Park and not had their defences breached. If defensive impregnability is the platform for safety, then Dougie Freedman's side ought to pull clear of trouble. They have won their last two at home, albeit against struggling sides (Middlesbrough and Sheffield United) - yet although this weekend's visitors Reading are further up the table, they are not in the greatest of form. The midweek win over Millwall was their first in six attempts and they are without a win in three away games.

Andrew French's selection: Back Crystal Palace to beat Reading at [3.4]

Huddersfield v Leyton Orient

National news headlines, trips to Las Vegas and the unknown Jonathan Tehoue now becoming err known. It's all been happening at Brisbane Road after their amazing 1-1 FA Cup heroics against Arsenal. With all that in mind, perhaps Orient's minds might be elsewhere with the Emirates replay looming?

Huddersfield are unbeaten in 2011 and need to close the seven point gap with league leaders Brighton this weekend, and [1.84] is a decent price for an excellent team. The Terriers have drawn their last two games 1-1 with Bournemouth and Dagenham, and failed to sparkle in the former. They need to get going again. The Yorkshire team looked jaded mentally and physically at Bournemouth according to manager Lee Clark, but created plenty of chances against the Daggers and should have killed off that match on Tuesday night.

I respect Orient, who are playing so well this season under the tactically astute Russell Slade. But if their players are not quite on it, Huddersfield can get their tempo and passing back to get a result here.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Huddersfield to beat Leyton Orient at [1.84]

Southend v Northampton

As good as Northampton's home form has been, it has been poor away for most of the season. The second worst in the division, in fact. They seem to have picked up in the last two trips with draws - to opponents of apparently varying qualities in Hereford and Port Vale - in an overall five draws and two wins. The draw at Hereford is actually a good result against one of the division's form teams. Southend present a different prospect. Despite having a depleted squad, boss Paul Sturrock seems to be relatively happy, suggesting that while loan signings would be nice they would face a battle to get into the side, after one defeat in nine. Defender Mark Phillips and midfielder Anthony Grant remain out, while a couple of strikers including Barry Corr could return. Talk of new players suggests enough ambition to turn a good run into a genuine play-off push.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Southend to beat Northampton at [2.24]

Recommended Multiple

Back Wolves @ [1.91]; Back Crystal Palace @ [3.4]; Back Huddersfield @ [1.84]; Back Southend @ [2.24]; The multiple pays approximately [26.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Peterborough striker Craig Mackail-Smith is having another solid goal-scoring season

"Posh midfielder and trequartista Lee Tomlin is a top player with great feet and eye for goal, whilst forward Craig Mackail-Smith is having his usual goalscoring season."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Stoke v Brighton (FA Cup)

I don't particularly like tipping top-flight clubs in the cup against in-form underdogs, but in this case I had Stoke priced up at around [1.5], so to see them at [1.7] in the Match Odds market is very appealing. Plus, we're at the stage of the competition now where shocks become less frequent, and any Premier League club with a home tie must surely have their sights set on going all the way. League One leaders Brighton play some attractive football under Gus Poyet but I'm not sure that's what will be required at the Britannia Stadium against 'bully' boys Stoke. Tony Pulis' men have won their last three on home soil whereas Brighton's only league wins on the road since October were against lowly Exeter and bottom of the table Bristol Rovers.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Stoke to beat Brighton at [1.7]

Crystal Palace v Sheff Utd

Time to roll out that classic cliché - a relegation six-pointer. With Preston rapidly getting detached at the foot of the table, and next-to-bottom Scunthorpe's miserable home record crippling their survival chances (despite a heroic win against Nottm Forest in midweek), Palace and United are in the box seats to join them in making the drop. But at least Palace are showing a bit of resistance. Okay, so two wins and three draws in the last seven isn't exactly scintillating, but at least Dougie Freedman's side are giving themselves a platform on which to win games by not giving away goals: they have kept four clean sheets in that seven-game sequence. And that could be the decisive factor against Saturday's opponents, who are still to win under Mickey Adams since he took over nine games ago.

The Blades have failed to score in both their last two away games, and are on a run of five defeats in their last six road trips. Most tellingly, though, United have managed to score just once in seven away games against fellow bottom-half sides. That stat when travelling to face Palace - who have conceded only three in seven when hosting teams below halfway - suggests the Eagles could just edge this one. If I were braver, I'd suggest 1-0 to Palace at [7.6].

Andrew French's selection: Back Crystal Palace to beat Sheff Utd at [2.26]

Peterborough v Tranmere

League One's most entertaining team are back on home soil this Saturday, and Peterborough have a chance to add to their amazing tally of 45 goals in 15 games at London Road - a truly staggering effort from a side with an embarrassment of attacking riches.

Posh beat Yeovil at Huish Park on Tuesday night in a slightly different manner, and that pleased manager Darren Ferguson. The goals came in the final nine minutes of the match, but they battled and showed far more defensive resolve than previously. Mind you, it helps playing Yeovil. Central defender Gabriel Zakuani returned to the side in midweek, and his aerial ability is undoubtedly the best in the division. Posh midfielder and trequartista Lee Tomlin is a top player with great feet and eye for goal, whilst forward Craig Mackail-Smith is having his usual goalscoring season.

Posh have big players that can hit opponents in spells and short bursts, and are still attractive in the outrights despite their skinny odds.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Peterborough to beat Tranmere at [1.7]

Hereford v Burton

Strike while the iron is hot. The Bulls have their tails up, the Brewers are still stewing after their cup exit. Burton continue to frustrate their manager and fans, unable to string two league wins together more than once this season. They caught Chesterfield at the right moment last weekend - confirming their penchant for quirky results - but Hereford are in confident mood. Stuart Fleetwood continues in good form for the hosts, whose home form has been solid except against their bogey side Lincoln and even their away form has been good, with away wins at Cheltenham and Torquay.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Hereford to beat Burton at [2.52]

Recommended Multiple

Back Stoke @ [1.7]; Back Lay Crystal Palace @ [2.26]; Back Peterborough @ [1.7]; Back Hereford @ [2.52]; The multiple pays approximately [16.0]

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Former Blackburn striker Shefki Kuqi is now a Newcastle player

"And the fact that Magpies boss Alan Pardew has had to sing veteran striker Shefki Kuqi (a former Blackburn player) perfectly illustrates the shortage of options in attack available to Newcastle."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Blackburn v Newcastle

I'm not sure I could back Newcastle with stolen money at the moment. True, they demonstrated tremendous character and heroics to come from four down v Arsenal last week, but that was more a case of the Gunners messing things up than anything else. And the fact that Magpies boss Alan Pardew has had to sign veteran striker Shefki Kuqi (a former Blackburn player) perfectly illustrates the shortage of options in attack available to Newcastle. Blackburn are far from brilliant, but they have a more than respectable home record plus they've already beaten a stronger Newcastle outfit earlier in the season. With home advantage this time, I fancy Steve Kean's men to do the double over the Premier League newcomers.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Blackburn to beat Newcastle at [2.26]

Coventry v Crystal Palace

You'd have to be a brave man to back Coventry at anything close to even money at the moment - even against another struggling team. The Sky Blues are without a win in 10 league games and have lost each of their last three. They are on a run of five home games without success, and a couple of those were draws with struggling sides (Ipswich and Sheffield United). While Crystal Palace are far from setting the world alight, they are making themselves hard to beat under new manager Dougie Freedman. They are now four without defeat, during which time they have conceded only one goal - and their 1-0 victory last Saturday ended Middlesbrough's six-game unbeaten run.

Andrew French's selection: Lay Coventry at [2.22] v Crystal Palace

MK Dons v Brentford

It's been a topsy-turvy time for Brentford over the last two weeks. The Londoners sacked manager Andy Scott following the disastrous 4-1 defeat at Dagenham. Caretaker boss Nicky Forster however has found life very much to his liking, with two wins out of two; one of those against Plymouth, and the other one against Exeter in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy - and a Wembley final beckons.

Calmer waters over at the Stadium:mk meanwhile, and a chance for the MK Dons to continue their fine run of home form. Manager Karl Robinson likes his side to keep possession for long periods, and retain the ball with good passing and movement. It's worked - losing just twice all season on home soil. MK are a decent side, and have addressed the poor away form with fine results recently against Sheffield Wednesday (2-2) and wins against Bristol Rovers and Dagenham. They line up 4-4-2 and have always shown a good work ethic. The fact that they keep plenty of clean sheets at home makes them hard to beat here - despite the mini Bees revival.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back MK Dons to beat Brentford at [2.4]

Lincoln v Morecambe

Morecambe have been struggling to gain victories recently, failing to win but taking three draws in five outings. Sincil Bank is not the place to go seeking one right now. The Imps were brought back down to earth by Shrewsbury, who have suddenly found their feet again. Before that midweek mauling, however, they had found an unlikely source of inspiration in Delroy Facey - "Captain Marvel" some wanted to call him. He's never struck me as a striker who could get struggling teams out of trouble, but he is enjoying himself and scoring. As skipper, he had a perfect record of five wins before midweek and as regular readers will know I hate to go by a Tuesday game's result if it interrupts a good form line. Sometimes a defeat can help to keep you on your toes. Ashley Grimes is also in good scoring form, so the hosts are worth taking at [2.36].

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Lincoln to beat Morecambe at [2.36]

Recommended Multiple

Back Blackburn @ [2.26]; Lay Coventry @ [2.22]; Back MK Dons @ [2.4]; Back Lincoln @ [2.36]; The multiple pays approximately 23.0

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

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The Four by Four column: A quartet of English football selections

Four By Four / Four By Four / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Hereford’s Stuart Fleetwood is in excellent form at present

"Stuart Fleetwood, a quality little forward who has spent a fair while adjusting to League football, has had something to do with it, scoring seven in seven games."

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option.

Aston Villa v Fulham

Villa's reversal at Manchester United during the week was no surprise, but prior to that game Gerard Houllier's men had won three on the bounce with their attack looking particularly impressive now that they've got a proven striker in there. Darren Bent has scored two in three for his new club, and I believe he and his pacey suppliers will be too strong for Fulham. The Cottagers themselves have come into a bit of form lately, especially on home soil, but on the road they continue to struggle. Mark Hughes' men have recorded just one victory away from home this season, and they've scored a paltry nine goals in the process. This game might not be a thriller, but it should result in a comfortable home victory.

Mike Norman's selection: Back Aston Vila to beat Fulham at [2.02]

Reading v QPR (playing Friday)

Every now and then you get a game which, when you have a look at the stats, form and records of the two teams, that old phrase 'it's got a draw written all over it' jumps into your head. Reading have played each of the other top-six sides at the Madejski this season, and drawn four of those games. The Royals have drawn their last two, and have finished level 12 times this season - the joint highest number of draws in the division. League leaders QPR also like a draw - they have shared the spoils 11 times, and their seven away stalemates is as high as any side in the Championship. Both their last two away games have finished 0-0 - and you can almost be certain this will be another tight affair as the Hoops' 14 trips away from Loftus Road have produced only 24 goals.

Andrew French's selection: Back The Draw at [3.6]

Bristol Rovers v Brighton

It's not often the league leaders Brighton will be available to back at [1.99] for a match against Bristol Rovers, and perhaps the layers in the market have reacted to their 0-0 at Leyton Orient last Saturday. The bare facts read as a decent away point, as the Londoners are in form, however the Seagulls created one solitary chance in the whole 90 minutes. And that is not Brighton.

I prefer to focus on the games before, in particular where Gus Poyet's team were magnificent in knocking Watford out of the FA Cup, and beating Colchester the week before. They play decent football and I am prepared to accept last week at Orient was just a minor blip. Brighton have kept hold of star winger Elliott Bennett - who was subject of three huge bids from Norwich City, and he is key to the good passing and possession football. With the marquee players they have, the odds should be taken for them to beat Bristol Rovers.

Alan Dudman's selection: Back Brighton to beat Bristol Rovers at [1.99]

Hereford v Lincoln

Something really seems to have clicked at Hereford, who have won four league games on the trot and a couple of cup games too, after looking dead and buried a few weeks ago. Stuart Fleetwood, a quality little forward who has spent a fair while adjusting to League football, has had something to do with it, scoring seven in seven games. That they have lost Mathieu Manset to Reading is a shame for the Bulls. However, against the team who beat them in the league but lost after a replay to them in the cup, they can continue their resurrection.

Ian Lamont's selection: Back Hereford to beat Lincoln at [2.26]

Recommended Multiple

Back Aston Villa @ [2.02]; Back The Draw in Reading v QPR @ [3.6]; Back Brighton @ [1.99]; Back Hereford @ [2.26]; The multiple pays approximately [32.0]

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