Epsom Derby Betting: Put patriotism aside and go Native

The Derby / Adam Brookes / 27 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Native Khan looks over-priced for the Derby.

"...with Native Khan arguably the horse to emerge with most credit from those vanquished at Newmarket, he appears as the value alternative to Carlton House at Epsom."

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4...

The horse alluded to in the opening gambit is Sir Michael Stoute's Carlton House, winner of the Dante at York on his reappearance, and now a short-priced favourite [2.58] for Epsom glory. That performance placed him firmly in the limelight and, with the physical scope and pedigree to suggest the step up in trip should prove no problem (dam stayed 1½m and half-brother won over 15f), he's certainly the one to beat for a trainer who saddled his fifth winner of the race with Workforce last year and will be attempting to follow the back-to-back wins he achieved with Kris Kin and North Light in 2003 and 2004, respectively.

Whilst acknowledging the recent Derby double of Sir Michael Stoute, it should not be forgotten that the same feat was achieved by Aidan O'Brien (Galileo and High Chaparral) in the preceding two years, and it appears the trainer has a wealth of talent to choose from this year, the shortest priced of which is currently Recital. A Group 1 winner at two in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, Recital put a disappointing reappearance behind him when readily winning the Derrinstown at Leopardstown last time, producing a performance that has brought him firmly into the Derby picture. However, whilst there's no doubt he's got plenty of ability, there's no denying that he showed more than a hint of character that day (on toes beforehand, hung left and carried head awkwardly), which begs the question as to how he will handle the idiosyncratic contours of Epsom.

Racing Post Trophy runner-up Seville wasn't quite able to match his Doncaster performance when 1½ lengths second in the Dante but is another who is sure to do better. Although there's no reason why he should reverse the form with his York conqueror Carlton House, Seville is bred to relish the step up in trip (both sire and dam showed their best form over 1½m) and he'll go to Epsom with place claims at the very least.

Roderic O'Connor restored his reputation with a career-best in winning the Irish 2000 Guineas and is another Ballydoyle horse who comes into contention. However, although another by Derby winner, and Derby-winning sire Galileo, his immediate pedigree (half brother to 6f 2yo winner, dam winner over 8.5f) doesn't suggest he's guaranteed to stay a mile and a half, and, with the option of the Prix du Jockey Club (10½f) in France the same weekend, he's not a certain starter at Epsom.

Other Ballydoyle entries who could well make the line up are Chester Vase winner Treasure Beach and Derrinstown second and third, Memphis Tennessee and Regent Street. Treasure Beach is yet to finish outside the places in his six races and looks to have place possibilities, whilst dark horse Memphis Tennessee has the physique to improve throughout the season and looks sure to appreciate the step up to 1½m. With several of the Ballydoyle representatives highly likely to relish the trip, it's possible that a pacemaker will be employed and, with Regent Street performing those duties last time, he could well do the same at Epsom.

The Coolmore challenge could well be bolstered further by the presence of impressive Prix Greffulhe winner Pour Moi, trained in France by Andre Fabre. With the step up in trip appearing likely to be within Pour Moi's compass, he should not be overlooked, for all that Greffulhe favourite, and one time Derby hope, Vadamar was very disappointing, leaving Pour Moi with a far simpler task than had looked likely.

As has been widely reported, the generosity of Sheikh Mohammed means that, whilst Carlton House won't be running in his colours at Epsom (the colt was a gift to the Queen as a yearling), the Godolphin operation are still likely to be represented. At this stage, Ocean War looks the most obvious contender to sport the royal blue silks after his win in a listed race at Newmarket last time. That performance, although some way short of what is required to be competitive in a classic, has nevertheless bought him into the reckoning, with further improvement likely.

With Genius Beast disappointing when on trial for the Epsom showpiece in France last time, Racing Post Trophy winner Casamento is the other Godolphin possible. However, although Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral have all won the Derby having landed that Group 1 the previous season, Casamento has to put behind him a disappointing run in the Guineas and, for all that he had the stamina for a mile as a juvenile, he's far from certain to stay the trip, being a Shamardal half-brother to useful 6/7f performer Inler.

Ed Dunlop trained Snow Fairy to win the Oaks last year and could return to Epsom with a live Derby contender in the shape of Craven winner, and 2000 Guineas third, Native Khan. Whilst the trip is an unknown with Native Khan, as he is yet to go further than a mile, it's worth noting that he is a half-brother to a French 2m1f hurdle winner and his sire Azamour won a King George and was third in a Breeders' Cup Turf on his only races over the Derby distance and the way Native Khan shapes suggests he should stay.

Finally, John Gosden, who trained Benny The Dip to win the race in 1997, could be doubly represented with Masked Marvel and Nathaniel. Masked Marvel looks the most certain to line up at Epsom after his win in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood last time and he's undoubtedly open to further improvement after just four career starts. However, he needs to step up markedly on that form to be competitive in a classic, whilst Nathaniel, a head second to Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase last time, has the option of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and seems more likely to take up that engagement.

Whilst the Derby will no doubt generate as much interest as ever, perhaps even more so with the firm prospect of a Royal favourite, there will undoubtedly be much talk of one horse absent from the line-up, the peerless Frankel, who, if lining up at Epsom, would have been a staggering 20 lb clear of Carlton House on ratings. However, in Frankel's absence, the Derby looks wide open and, with Native Khan arguably the horse to emerge with most credit from those vanquished at Newmarket, he appears as the value alternative to Carlton House at Epsom.

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In-running week: Go Native?

In-running / Neil Munro / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sunshine, the scent of cut grass and some in-play runners on the flat...

"If you fancy Eucharist, split your stakes, and back half pre-race and half at double the starting price in-running."

The flat season is here and with Neil Munro - Betting.Betfair's man for all things in-running...

The Flat season is properly upon us now and that was proved by the reappearance of Frankel at Newbury. Everybody has noticed that he was a bit keen and would enjoy a stronger pace, and thus a bigger field in the 2000 Guineas. Because of that phrase 'everybody has noticed' he is not a horse that I would want to play on in-running but there is another high visibility runner that I do want to get involved on.

Native Khan has done very little wrong in his four career starts, apart from defeat in the Racing Post Trophy at the back end of last season. He came back with a workmanlike performance in the Craven which suggested one word of warning for his future runs. He travelled supremely well and then hit the front one furlong out. Now this was probably a little too soon and when he got there he definitely idled and then hung left.

So how do we play a horse like this? For his next three runs, including hopefully the 2000 Guineas, I would back him pre-race and then look to lay off my stake and a bit more in-running at a quarter of that matched price. If he does idle, or they try and deliver him as late as possible, you will hopefully have a clear position on the market.

A more run of the mill flat horse to follow for the summer is the front runner Baltimore Jack. The seven-year-old normally needs a couple of runs at the beginning of the season, so I wouldn't worry about his two runs so far. He loves running on good to firm ground between a mile and ten furlongs, having won four times and been placed a further four times in 11 runs under such conditions. He loves to dictate from the front and because of this has ten trades at [3.0] or under. So now you know the conditions to back him pre-race and lay out in-running. Under softer conditions I would leave him alone.

A more speculative play could be on Eucharist. Richard Hannon's three-year-old put up a decent seasonal reappearance the other day but he is one of those rare Hannon horses that is held up. Because of this, at two, he traded significantly bigger in-running on two of his four wins and the suggestion is they will stick to those tactics this season. So if you fancy him, split your stakes, and back half pre-race and half at double the starting price in-running.

Keep an eye on these horses for the summer as they should all be running fairly regularly. Best of luck as always.

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