Follow The Money: Back Huntsmen to Close down rivals at Epsom

Recommended Bets:

Lay Youcouldntmakeitup @ 5.14/1 in the 15:05 at Ripon 

Back Huntsmans Close @ 3.412/5 in the 15:25 at Epsom 

Back Fazza @ 4.57/2 in the 16:50 at Ripon 

Today's Follow the Money comes from the meetings at Ripon and Epsom...

We start at Ripon and the 15:05 6f Nursery where Tim Easterby's runner Youcouldntmakeitup has come in from an opening 3.8514/5 out to 5.14/1. Although she won on her debut over 5f the market obviously does not feel she will be as effective over this longer distance and significant support has come for the Tom Dascombe-trained Little Belter whose fourth place last time out now looks decent after the second and third placed runners both went on to win in better company. There are others in the race that could make this competitive and we are siding with the market and laying Youcouldntmakeitup.
Over at Epsom in the 15:25 6f Handicap, Huntsmans Close has strengthened into market favourite from a high of 4.22n/a in to his current price of 3.412/5. Roger Charlton's gelding won a 6f Handicap back in April and followed this up with some creditable efforts but it was his last run in the 32Red Cup consolation race at Goodwood that is of most interest. He was not beaten far despite suffering interference in running when going well. He runs well on most ground and with a number of non-runners in today's race this could prove a big chance for the four-year-old. 
Back to Ripon where we have seen significant support in the 16:50 1m Handicap for the top weight Fazza, coming in from 6.86/1 in to 4.57/2. Although below par on his last two starts, he found trouble in running last time. And if we look back a little further, he won a couple of 1m handicaps last season and ran a close third over course and distance here in July. Kevin Stott was on board that day and partners Fazza again today claiming 5lbs. If he can reproduce that form, as the market seems to think he will, then he'll have a big say.
Recommended Bets:
Lay Youcouldntmakeitup @ 5.14/1 in the 15:05 at Ripon
Back Huntsmans Close @ 3.412/5 in the 15:25 at Epsom
Back Fazza @ 4.57/2 in the 16:50 at Ripon

Staked: 632pts
Returned: 664.65pts
P/L: + 32.65pts (before commission)

Updated to end of July. Based on prices at time of publication

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Epsom Derby: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom...

Timeform analyse the chances of each runner in the 2013 Derby... 

Battle of Marengo has done little wrong since debut, improving again when winning Derrinstown Trial at Leopardstown, beating Criterium winner Loch Garman. Step up in trip will suit in first-time cheekpieces.

Chopin was supplemented for $75,000 by new owner on back of impressive 8-length success in 8.5f Group 3, beating subsequent German Guineas runner-up. Certain he has more to offer stepped up in trip.

Dawn Approach is a top-class and unbeaten son of the 2008 Derby winner New Approach, and was most impressive when winning the Guineas on return last month by 5 lengths. Potential stamina doubt looks the only chink in his armour.

Festive Cheer was an easy winner of a Dundalk maiden at 2 yrs that worked out well and improved again when narrow third in 11f Longchamp Group 2 on return. Further step up in trip will suit.

Flying The Flag is out of the Irish Guineas and Nassau winner Halfway To Heaven, but looks down the Ballydoyle pecking order here having been held in the French and Irish Guineas so far this year.

Galileo Rock looks all stamina, closely related to high-class stayer Saddler's Rock. Not beaten far in 1¼m Sandown Classic Trial on return and will relish longer trip, but possibly more of a Leger type.

Libertarian was held by Galileo Rock at Sandown but dented some lofty reputations when running out impressive winner of the Dante subsequently, finding plenty. Step up in trip will suit but a lot more needed here.

Mars was favourite for this even before he won 7f Dundalk maiden in good style last summer. Encouraging sixth in the Guineas only run since and will have plenty more to offer over middle distances.

Mirsaale booked his place in the field with success in the 1¼m trial at the course in April. Longer trip will be no problem but has a mountain to climb on form to get involved.

Ocean Applause is a fairly useful maiden but hasn't beaten another rival on his last 2 starts. Impossible to make a case for in refitted headgear.

Ocovango is an unbeaten French-trained colt who made all readily in 1¼m Group 3 Prix Greffulhe last month. Trainer landed same race before scoring in this with Pour Moi in 2011 and should improve up in trip.

Ruler of The World is a Galileo half-brother to Duke of Marmalade. Another trial winner for Ballydoyle when running away with Chester Vase in first-time cheekpieces, storming clear. Respected with stamina assured.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Dawn Approach
2. Mars
3. Chopin

Timeform View: The unbeaten Dawn Approach is a confident selection to confirm his stamina and become the third 2000 Guineas winner in the last 5 years to follow up at Epsom. Ballydoyle will clearly have a major say over how matters unfold with Mars and Battle of Marengo arguably the pick of their hopefuls, while Chopin, the first-ever German-trained runner in the race, can also reach the frame.

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Epsom Derby: Telescope pleases in gallop

"There's still a chance he could make the Derby but we'll just take it day by day..."

Derby candidate Telescope could have a racecourse gallop at Lingfield this week if he emerges unscathed from a workout in Newmarket on Sunday...

The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt missed his intended seasonal reappearance in the Dante Stakes at York last week after grazes on his legs became infected.

Telescope, who is owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, was put through his paces on the Limekilns gallop in Newmarket, working in company with an older stablemate.

Highclere's Harry Herbert reports Stoute to be satisfied with the gallop and Telescope could now go to Lingfield on Wednesday with the Epsom Classic still in their sights on June 1.

"Sir Michael has called me and he seemed very pleased," said Herbert.

"We'll just see how he is before we move on to the next step. If he comes through this OK, we'll take him to Lingfield on Wednesday where he will have his racecourse gallop. As long as Sir Michael is happy with him tonight and tomorrow morning, that will be the plan.

"As if there is not enough pressure surrounding a British Derby candidate, this has just added to the stress of it all really. There's still a chance he could make the Derby but we'll just take it day by day."

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Epsom Placepot: Tuesday August 28

One might have expected Mayo Lad to be a clear favourite following his easy win at Leicester last time (for which he has been raised just 4 lb)...

With the Bank Holiday comedown still in effect, a low-lines approach could be best at Epsom this afternoon. Keith Melrose offers his perm...

14:15 - A few interesting sorts in this nursery, not least Romanoff and Epsom Flyer, but there's no doubting how solid Lisa's Legacy is and she rates as a reasonable banker prospect. She's got used to the rough-and-tumble of racing in maidens, actually suffering interference when shaping a clear second-best behind a useful prospect last time. Her BHA mark looks fairly lenient even before factoring in the improvement she's bound to show one day over seven furlongs plus, so hopefully this single arrow is all we'll need in leg one.

14:50 - Last-time-out winner Clear Praise is a bigger price than might have been expected, that possibly down to the perception that he's best over five furlongs, but he's shown enough over this trip (albeit chiefly on polytrack) that stamina surely won't be an issue, especially considering he was a respectable fourth over C&D just over a year ago. Second spot goes to Baby Strange, who's been even more consistent than recent form figures imply, undone by the draw at Goodwood last time. He's something of a professional loser, but another finish in the first three will do us fine, while he showed enough over this C&D at the Derby meeting to prove his effectiveness around here.

15:25 - There's no doubt that Van Percy holds the best form on offer, but with three places currently up for grabs we can use a bit of poetic licence. Royal Skies has a good deal more experience than the favourite, and has even done it round here (third over seven furlongs last time out); with this longer trip sure to suit and there not being any obvious challenge for the lead, we can put our faith in Mark Johnston's charge.

15:55 - One might have expected Mayo Lad to be a clear favourite following his easy win at Leicester last time (for which he has been raised just 4 lb), the feeling being that, like Clear Praise, the market has cast his effectiveness at the trip into doubt. I don't feel the return to seven furlongs will be a problem though, considering the way he travelled at Leicester and the fact that he was good enough to win a six-furlong handicap at Wolverhampton not so long ago, while his consistency this season seals the deal. Lolita Lebron, rather sparked into life by the addition of a hood on recent runs, probably rates as the biggest danger and therefore also gets a spot.

16:30 - A good number of these are unexposed, but there's reason to be sceptical about the temperament of both Twelve Strings and Seven Veils, so preference is for Novirak and Jane Lachatte. Novirak is a four-year-old, but has made just five starts so far, only two of which really count it could be argued, his first two outings all about experience and his reappearance seemingly needed for fitness. He was fourth in a decent handicap at Doncaster last time, suggesting that the step up to this trip may draw more from him in the way he shaped. Our other selection Jane Lachatte has the advantage of good course form (two wins and a second from three starts), but there is some concern in that all her best efforts so far have come on softer than good and she's been a bit too free for her own good on recent starts. Even so, she's evidently in form and is well enough treated to get right into the mix today.

17:00 - The claims of If I Were A Boy are obvious, but by the same token she's likely to carry a significant slice of the pool and, with a couple of fairly attractive sorts against her in this, we can oppose her in hope of a slip-up. First in is Miss Cap Estel, who has never yet raced over this far but, being by Hernando and related to a number of winners beyond a mile, shouldn't have any problem with the trip. Second for our perm is Welsh Nayber, a consistent if perhaps not progressive three-year-old who may never have faced the undulations of Epsom but has found plenty of joy at Brighton, which provides as close to an approximant test as you're likely to get on these shores.

Selections
14:15 - 4
14:50 - 3, 5
15:25 - 5
15:55 - 2, 3
16:30 - 1, 6
17:00 - 6, 11
= 16 lines

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Little a decent Pick at Epsom

Pick A Little showed a good attitude when getting the better of Opus Dei at Southwell last time (pair clear) and although this will demand more, he is still on a winning mark.

Timeform Radio's Paul Smith has concentrated on the Epsom card for today's selections. Can he pick us a little winner?

The most interesting race of the afternoon looks to be the 6f handicap at Epsom at 14:50 and I think a two-pronged attack could be the way to go.

Pick A Little has won two of his three starts since joining the excellent Brian Ellison and his only disappointing run came when he was held up in a Wolverhampton handicap in which nothing got into the race from behind.

He showed a good attitude when getting the better of Opus Dei at Southwell last time (pair clear) and although this will demand more, he is still on a winning mark.

His new trainer may be able to eke some further improvement out of him and it's hard to fathom why he is trading at 20+ given his profile.

Another at a decent price in the race with a sound chance is Aldermoor. He is on a handy mark at present and he looked as though the return to 6f would suit him at Yarmouth last week. William Carson replaces an apprentice and he looks worth a saver at the current prices.

Novirak (16:30 Epsom) is the other recommendation on a trappy afternoon, with James Fanshawe's lightly raced four-year-old looking ready for this step up in trip.

His latest Doncaster fourth has been advertised since and the way he was seeing out his race there strongly points to middle distances being his forte.

Recommended Bets

Back Pick A Little @ 21.020/1 Epsom 14:50
Back Aldermoor @ 8.415/2 Epsom 14:50
Back Novirak @ 5.49/2 16:30 Epsom

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Epsom Derby 2012 News: RP Trophy hero Camelot heads entry of 143

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The unbeaten Camelot

"Last season's Racing Post Trophy, rated 117P by Timeform, winner is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien..."

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2.

Last season's Racing Post Trophy winner (Timeform rated 117P), is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien, who can also call upon Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Wrote (118p) and Beresford Stakes scorer David Livingston (115).

John Oxx, like O'Brien twice successful in the Derby, has Born To Sea (108p) among his five entries.

The Invincible Spirit colt, runner-up in the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown on his final juvenile start, is a half-brother to two Derby heroes in Galileo and Oxx's Sea The Stars.

Sir Henry Cecil's six contenders include Noble Mission (80p), second on his only start to date at Yarmouth and full brother to the stable's world champion Frankel.

Marcus Tregoning, meanwhile, is dreaming of Cavaleiro (98), a son of his 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy, emulating his sire.

The Lambourn trainer has high hopes after Cavaleiro ended a busy two-year-old campaign with victory in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes in September.

The Newbury contest has yielded numerous clues for the Derby over the years, with Henbit and Shergar having won both races, while Shahrastani and Authorized were both placed en route to Classic glory at Epsom.

Tregoning said: "We have obviously got quite a way to go with Cavaleiro before the Derby but we will run him in a trial and take it from there.

"He's had plenty of experience as a two-year-old and won his latest two starts, which was good. He's going to have to step up considerably on his next start and we are thinking about either the Lingfield Derby Trial, Chester or Sandown.

"I also haven't ruled out the possibility of running him in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, which might suit him.

"Physically, he has done very well over the winter and we are very pleased with him on that score. He's quite a laid-back horse, who keeps finding a bit, so we are hopeful that he can continue to progress.

"It's very exciting for Sir Percy. He did very well last year and the quality of the mares that he is receiving is getting better. It's early days for him as a stallion but we have been very pleased for him. We were very lucky to have him and he was a wonderful flag-bearer - hopefully his progeny can continue that success."

Camelot currently heads the betting for the Epsom Derby at [3.6] on June 2, while he also fills the same position for the 2000 Guineas on May 5 at [3.9].

...........
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Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Epsom, 16:45

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 25 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

It's all about Epsom for Nick today but who is carrying his 80/20 hopes on this fine Sunday?

Today's 80/20 is The Mongoose in the 16.45 at Epsom.

This well-related individual finished fifth to Almagest at Windsor last month. He had a chance a furlong from home but failed to quicken and was easily brushed aside. He had previously finished a decent second to Unex El Greco at Leicester, which reads well in the context of this race. I think he will go close at a fair price. At present he is trading at [4.3] on the exchange.

We're at Newmarket for today's 80/20 bet and this one will go off at a big price. But who is the object of Nick's punting affection?...

Will Nick's HQ 80/20 triumph or will she come up short?...

Nick is off to HQ to follow the fortunes of an 80/20 he believes in......

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Epsom, 18:40

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Improvement expected from Nick's evening selection at Epsom

Today's 80/20 is Halling Dancer in the 18:40 at Epsom. This colt caught the eye on debut when finishing second to Son Du Silence at Windsor last month. He made good progress over a furlong from home that day and kept on in good style behind the easy winner. I think he is open to a great deal of improvement and should run well at a decent price. At present he is trading at [7.2] on the exchange.

Will Nick's selection come good today or will it be all at "sea"?...

Nick's selection is running at Great Yarmouth today but will we see a great run from him?...

Is Nick's Monday selection on the up today?...

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Epsom Placepot: Thursday July 14

Daily Placepots / Shahin Khoshsokhan / 14 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Epsom Racecourse

"It would come as no surprise if Mystic Edge made all like she did at Lingfield last week, the form looking more solid now given that the third has since come out and won."

This evening's placepot comes from Epsom...

18.10 - The reliable Woodcote Place is worth banking on despite conceding weight all round. He shaped with plenty of promise on his return at Windsor last month and that form has taken a couple of boosts since. Woodcote Place also has winning course-and-distance form, which is often significant around here.

18.40 - Relying on just the one runner in a 2-y-o race at Epsom may not be the wisest thing to do in most cases, but Goldoni was thought good enough to take his chance in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and was far from disgraced, showing plenty of early speed in a well-run race. Not only is he taking a significant drop in class here, but positive tactics are easier to pull off at Epsom.

19.15 - Such is his effectiveness at this track, Ramona Chase would have been another banker had all eight that were declared remained in the race. With only two places up for grabs now, that looks a bit risky, so the consistent and in-form New Code is also included.

19.45 - It would come as no surprise if Mystic Edge made all like she did at Lingfield last week, the form looking more solid now given that the third has since come out and won. Most of the others have something to prove so Mystic Edge is the third banker of the evening.

20.20 - Ree's Rascal seems to be the only progressive sort in the line-up and the way he travelled last time suggests that a return to seven furlongs will be in his favour. Leadenhall Lass ran poorly last time but her absence since suggests that all was not well that day. She has finished out of the frame only twice from eights attempts at this track and is an outsider worth including.

20.50 - Not the strongest of handicaps to end the meeting on. Uncle Dermot is the only winner in the field and he's pretty consistent, too, so has an excellent chance of making a place. Empress Charlotte finished second on four of her last six starts and looks sure to be thereabouts once again.

Selections: 8 lines

18:10- 1
18:40 - 2
19:15 - 2,4
19:45 - 6
20:20 - 7,9
20:50 - 4,8

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The mixed turf and AW card at Lingfield is where Timeform's Paul Robson is going to try and crack the Placepot today....

The nostalgic amongst us will undoubtedly recall the days when Beverley's draw bias was entirely consistent, but, despite the recent unpredictability, Dan Barber is hitting the 'pot there head on in a bid to end his own frustrating spell....

We're concentrating on evening racing at Wolverhampton for tonight's placepot......

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Irish Oaks Betting: Dancing Rain to complete Epsom & Curragh double?

Tipping / Timeform / 13 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dancing Rain (red cap) may struggle to confirm form with those who finished behind her in the Epsom Oaks

"Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses."

This Sunday sees William Haggas' Dancing Rain bid to become the third British filly in as many years to do the Oaks double. Timeform's Paul Robson assesses what chance she has...

Dancing Rain has come a long way in a short time, her victory at Epsom coming just six weeks after winning a Newbury maiden on her reappearance, and although she improved to finish second in a listed race at the Berkshire track next time, her Oaks win still came as something of a surprise to most, returning a Betfair SP of [29.0].

Dancing Rain's classic success was arguably down to the tactics deployed by Johnny Murtagh, who was allowed to go off in front unchallenged. Murtagh stacked the runners up just before Tattenham Corner and kicked off the final bend, turning a middle-distance classic into a sprint. Understandably, not many runners could get into the race, and Dancing Rain bravely fought off the challenge of Aidan O'Brien's Wonder of Wonders, scoring by three quarters of a length.

The strong suspicion is that many of those Dancing Rain beat at Epsom will improve past her, hence the fact she can be backed at [5.3] to complete the Oaks double while the runner-up form Epsom is a short as [2.16].

Like many of those that ran at Epsom, Wonder of Wonders was disadvantaged by the steady gallop, even though she was better placed than many racing in second. She was the only filly to put up a strong challenge to Dancing Rain, going as short as [1.11] in-running on Betfair, but the front-runner had kept just enough in reserve. Wonder of Wonders is a big, rangy filly, who will probably be better suited by the more galloping track at the Curragh, and the chances are that there's still a big chunk of improvement in her. She has an obvious chance of giving O'Brien his fourth Irish Oaks in six years, but her price fully reflects that.

Another leading Ballydoyle contender is Irish 1000 Guineas and Pretty Polly winner Misty For Me, who is available at [8.0]. A very impressive display when defeating multiple Group 1 winner Midday at the Curragh by six lengths for her latest success makes her the Timeform top rated, but that that was over a mile and quarter, when dictating a steady gallop under a shrewd Seamie Heffernan ride before unleashing a devastating turn of foot to quicken clear, and there are doubts about her at Sunday's trip, a mile and a half seeming to stretch her stamina when fifth in the Oaks at Epsom.

Godolphin's Blue Bunting ([6.0]) has also tasted 1000 Guineas success, beating Together by three quarters of a length at Newmarket, but unlike Misty For Me she is very much bred to be an Oaks filly (by Dynaformer and from a staying family). Blue Bunting came with a late surge as her stamina kicked in at HQ, one of the first off the bridle but responding all the time, and her run in the Oaks can easily be excused, poorly positioned in mid-field and having little chance to land a blow (finished fourth). Godolphin have never won the Irish Oaks, but that record could well be broken as this race is likely to suit her a lot more than Epsom and she's potentially even better than she showed at Newmarket.

Ribblesdale winner Banimpire ([12.0]) proved her stamina at Royal Ascot last time, knuckling down to see off Field of Dreams by a short head. A tough and consistent filly who has won five of her last six starts, Banimpire is sure to give her running but may be vulnerable to the improvers.

Jessie Harrington's Laughing Lashes overcame a disappointing run on the Rowley Mile in the 1000 Guineas to stay on from rear into third in the Irish equivalent, but her pedigree suggests that the four furlong step up in trip will be too much.

Normally, the Epsom Oaks is a good indicator of who is the best middle-distance three-year-old filly of their generation, but the way the race was run gives half of the field excuses. It would be disappointing if Wonder of Wonders wasn't able to improve, but her price is too short. On the other hand, 1000 Guineas winner Blue Bunting can be excused her Epsom run and, at a current price of [6.0], looks the value pick.

Recommendation

Back Blue Bunting @ [6.0] in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Sunday

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St Nicholas Abbey heads the market for the Betfair sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 23, but the value lies elsewhere. Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan explains why he'll be betting against the favourite......

Three selections for today's meetings at Downpatrick and Killarney....

There are some useful performers on show in this minor event over a mile......

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Epsom Derby Betting: Put patriotism aside and go Native

The Derby / Adam Brookes / 27 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Native Khan looks over-priced for the Derby.

"...with Native Khan arguably the horse to emerge with most credit from those vanquished at Newmarket, he appears as the value alternative to Carlton House at Epsom."

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4...

The horse alluded to in the opening gambit is Sir Michael Stoute's Carlton House, winner of the Dante at York on his reappearance, and now a short-priced favourite [2.58] for Epsom glory. That performance placed him firmly in the limelight and, with the physical scope and pedigree to suggest the step up in trip should prove no problem (dam stayed 1½m and half-brother won over 15f), he's certainly the one to beat for a trainer who saddled his fifth winner of the race with Workforce last year and will be attempting to follow the back-to-back wins he achieved with Kris Kin and North Light in 2003 and 2004, respectively.

Whilst acknowledging the recent Derby double of Sir Michael Stoute, it should not be forgotten that the same feat was achieved by Aidan O'Brien (Galileo and High Chaparral) in the preceding two years, and it appears the trainer has a wealth of talent to choose from this year, the shortest priced of which is currently Recital. A Group 1 winner at two in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, Recital put a disappointing reappearance behind him when readily winning the Derrinstown at Leopardstown last time, producing a performance that has brought him firmly into the Derby picture. However, whilst there's no doubt he's got plenty of ability, there's no denying that he showed more than a hint of character that day (on toes beforehand, hung left and carried head awkwardly), which begs the question as to how he will handle the idiosyncratic contours of Epsom.

Racing Post Trophy runner-up Seville wasn't quite able to match his Doncaster performance when 1½ lengths second in the Dante but is another who is sure to do better. Although there's no reason why he should reverse the form with his York conqueror Carlton House, Seville is bred to relish the step up in trip (both sire and dam showed their best form over 1½m) and he'll go to Epsom with place claims at the very least.

Roderic O'Connor restored his reputation with a career-best in winning the Irish 2000 Guineas and is another Ballydoyle horse who comes into contention. However, although another by Derby winner, and Derby-winning sire Galileo, his immediate pedigree (half brother to 6f 2yo winner, dam winner over 8.5f) doesn't suggest he's guaranteed to stay a mile and a half, and, with the option of the Prix du Jockey Club (10½f) in France the same weekend, he's not a certain starter at Epsom.

Other Ballydoyle entries who could well make the line up are Chester Vase winner Treasure Beach and Derrinstown second and third, Memphis Tennessee and Regent Street. Treasure Beach is yet to finish outside the places in his six races and looks to have place possibilities, whilst dark horse Memphis Tennessee has the physique to improve throughout the season and looks sure to appreciate the step up to 1½m. With several of the Ballydoyle representatives highly likely to relish the trip, it's possible that a pacemaker will be employed and, with Regent Street performing those duties last time, he could well do the same at Epsom.

The Coolmore challenge could well be bolstered further by the presence of impressive Prix Greffulhe winner Pour Moi, trained in France by Andre Fabre. With the step up in trip appearing likely to be within Pour Moi's compass, he should not be overlooked, for all that Greffulhe favourite, and one time Derby hope, Vadamar was very disappointing, leaving Pour Moi with a far simpler task than had looked likely.

As has been widely reported, the generosity of Sheikh Mohammed means that, whilst Carlton House won't be running in his colours at Epsom (the colt was a gift to the Queen as a yearling), the Godolphin operation are still likely to be represented. At this stage, Ocean War looks the most obvious contender to sport the royal blue silks after his win in a listed race at Newmarket last time. That performance, although some way short of what is required to be competitive in a classic, has nevertheless bought him into the reckoning, with further improvement likely.

With Genius Beast disappointing when on trial for the Epsom showpiece in France last time, Racing Post Trophy winner Casamento is the other Godolphin possible. However, although Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral have all won the Derby having landed that Group 1 the previous season, Casamento has to put behind him a disappointing run in the Guineas and, for all that he had the stamina for a mile as a juvenile, he's far from certain to stay the trip, being a Shamardal half-brother to useful 6/7f performer Inler.

Ed Dunlop trained Snow Fairy to win the Oaks last year and could return to Epsom with a live Derby contender in the shape of Craven winner, and 2000 Guineas third, Native Khan. Whilst the trip is an unknown with Native Khan, as he is yet to go further than a mile, it's worth noting that he is a half-brother to a French 2m1f hurdle winner and his sire Azamour won a King George and was third in a Breeders' Cup Turf on his only races over the Derby distance and the way Native Khan shapes suggests he should stay.

Finally, John Gosden, who trained Benny The Dip to win the race in 1997, could be doubly represented with Masked Marvel and Nathaniel. Masked Marvel looks the most certain to line up at Epsom after his win in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood last time and he's undoubtedly open to further improvement after just four career starts. However, he needs to step up markedly on that form to be competitive in a classic, whilst Nathaniel, a head second to Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase last time, has the option of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and seems more likely to take up that engagement.

Whilst the Derby will no doubt generate as much interest as ever, perhaps even more so with the firm prospect of a Royal favourite, there will undoubtedly be much talk of one horse absent from the line-up, the peerless Frankel, who, if lining up at Epsom, would have been a staggering 20 lb clear of Carlton House on ratings. However, in Frankel's absence, the Derby looks wide open and, with Native Khan arguably the horse to emerge with most credit from those vanquished at Newmarket, he appears as the value alternative to Carlton House at Epsom.

Recommendation

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Epsom Oaks betting: Wonder of Wonders has the pedigree

Ante-Post Betting / Graham Cunningham / 27 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wonder of Wonders, ridden by Ryan Moore, left a strong impression at Chester

"Her physique is impressive and, as a daughter of the Oaks runner-up All Too Beautiful from the family of the mighty Galileo and Sea The Starsher pedigree is outstanding."

It may not attract the same publicity as the Derby, but this year's Investec Oaks forms an absorbing puzzle with three of the biggest stables in Europe at its heart. Godolphin, Coolmore and Sir Michael Stoute dominate the market and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is wondering whether he has missed the boat with his main fancy.

The problem of what to do when you fancy a horse but miss the best of the value is familiar to punters the world over.

It's raising its head for yours truly in the case of Wonder Of Wonders in next Friday's Investec Oaks at Epsom.

Aidan O'Brien's filly was available at [11.0] for a while after bolting up in the Cheshire Oaks but is now only a shade over [5.00] on Betfair having been the subject of sustained support in recent weeks.

I did take a small piece of [9.00] but the simple question now relates to whether to step in again given what we know about the rest of the main contenders.

We know that Godolphin won the 1000 Guineas and Oaks with Kazzia and we know that Blue Bunting is bred to stay a mile and a half after completing the first half of the Classic double in willing fashion at Newmarket.

But we also know that Blue Bunting is currently rading at just [3.35] on Betfair. And that looks a little tight for comfort.

We know that Havant finished almost six lengths behind Blue Bunting on fast ground at HQ. But we also know that Havant looked a fine Oaks prospect under softer conditions last autumn and that she's bred to come into her own a mile and a half.

We know that Misty For Me's revival in last week's Irish Guineas means she boasts as many Group 1 wins as the rest of this field put together. But we also know that she isn't so stoutly bred on the female side of her pedigree as some in this field.

We know that Zain Al Boldan routed her rivals in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. But we also know that looked a very soft Classic trial and that Timeform ratings suggest she has the best part of a stone to find if Blue Bunting reproduces her Newmarket form at Epsom.

We know that Khawlah looks likely to be saved for Royal Ascot unless Blue Bunting suffers a reverse.

And we also know that Beatrice Aurore and Izzi Top are on the up but need to take another marked step forward in order to succeed at G1 level.

All in all, then, this looks a case of wait a little longer to learn about the ground and riding plans before deciding whether to climb aboard the Wonder Of Wonders bus.

Her physique is impressive and, as a daughter of the Oaks runner-up All Too Beautiful from the family of the mighty Galileo and Sea The Stars, her pedigree is outstanding.

Whether she has the ability to go with those two credentials remains to be seen, but she left a strong impression at Chester and adds yet another powerful string to the impressive O'Brien Epsom bow this year.

The markets suggest we are poised for a historic royal Derby winner when the exciting Carlton House heads to Epsom. But is it really that straightforward? Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham isn't convinced and sees several alternatives to Sir Michael Stoute's colt....

Our blogger sides against The Queen in the big one, assuming we all survive long enough to see the race!...

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4......

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Epsom

Going Report / Editor / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Racecourse Epsom
First Race Time 14:00
Going Derby Course - Good, Good to Firm in places
Sprint Course - Good to Firm, Good in places

Racecourse Kempton First Race Time 18:20 Going Standard...

Racecourse Southwell First Race Time 14:10 Going Standard...

Racecourse Newcastle First Race Time 17:05 Going Good to Firm, Firm in places...

Racecourse Hereford First Race Time 14:20 Going Good to Firm...

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Epsom Placepot: Wednesday April 20

Daily Placepots / Simon Baker / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Today's Derby Trial winner is unlikely to be emulating Workforce on June 4

"Sunny Game is definitely a well handicapped horse off the same mark as when a massive eyecatcher at Doncaster on his final start in 2010 and if he’s found any improvement at all over the winter he’ll probably win today."

Epsom is the venue for today's crack at the placepot...

14:00 - David Barron quite possibly holds the key to the opener, with both Archers Road and Beat The Bell having obvious chances. Archers Road won first time back last year off a 2 lb higher mark and might find himself a tactical advantage today in the not unlikely event that they go too quickly, likely to be tracking the speed rather than disputing it. Meanwhile, Beat The Bell will appreciate this easier test after getting mugged late by Breathless Kiss at Beverley last time.

14:35 - Sunny Game is definitely a well handicapped horse off the same mark as when a massive eyecatcher at Doncaster on his final start in 2010 and if he's found any improvement at all over the winter he'll probably win today.

15:10 - This will probably get tactical, but Richard Hills can normally be relied on to be somewhat alive as to how a race is being run, so we'll put our faith in him to get it right on Musawama, who looks the sort to progress with experience.

15:45 - The City And Suburban has lost a bit of its sheen after the withdrawal of Taqleed, who would have been a banker, but it's still a competitive and useful handicap. It's not easy to work out how it's going to be run, so we'll take prominent-racer Opera Gal (her win at Chester last time is strong form), mid-div-er Tartan Gigha (ten furlongs probably stretches him, but he's two from two at Epsom and has Fallon in the plate) and hold-up horse Shavansky (best fresh).

16:20 - That Barney Rebel made his debut at Glorious Goodwood and was then pitched straight into a sales race suggests he's shown a fair amount of ability, so he's probably another one worth banking on, especially as he already sets the standard on form.

16:50 - Baqaat wasn't really suited by Lingfield on her most recent start, but she looks open to improvement on her handicap debut - she's sure to appreciate the opportunity to stretch her legs over this additional furlong and a half. The other one worth including is Face Value, who caught the eye on all three of his starts in maidens last year. Brian Meehan hasn't really hit form yet this season, but Face Value looks too interesting to leave out all the same.

Selections: 12 lines

14:00 - 3, 5
14:55 - 11
15:10 - 2
15:45 - 1, 7, 9
16:20 - 1
16:50 - 3, 4

It should be an excellent atmosphere at Pontefract this afternoon, but the card also provides an ideal placepot target....

Windsor's card this evening is a tough place to start the week from a Placepot perspective, but hopefully the following selections can do the trick......

We're headed to Shakespeare country for today's placepot......

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