Open Betting: Relaxed Rory is no one hit wonder

British Open / Ralph Ellis / 23 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Rory holds his trophy aloft - there will be more

"People who know me understand that I would not want anything like a bus parade," said Rory. "And anyway, there are four of these Majors every year and I've only won one."

History is strewn with one time winners who have struggled to repeat their heroics but Rory McIlroy is unlikely to join them, says Ralph Ellis.

They say the first big title is the hardest, and that's probably not wrong. But the idea that winning one Grand Slam or Major is the automatic passport to winning plenty is patently wrong.
At Wimbledon, for every Roger Federer or Pete Sampras there's been a Michael Stich or a Richard Krajicek; guys who were so blown away by the success of their first title that they couldn't handle the pressure of contending for another.

And in golf, in the 12 Majors since Tiger Woods won the US Open in 2008, there have been 11 different winners. Eight of whom were collecting their first, and only, big prize.

Which leads us to Rory McIlroy, back home in Belfast yesterday to show off his US Open trophy at the Holywood Golf Club where they've been forecasting big things for the curly headed kid since he was chipping airflow balls into his mum's washing machine. You can't help but enjoy the pictures this morning, with champagne flowing and a huge crowd of his nearest and dearest there to celebrate Sunday's incredible success.

But will he be another one-hit wonder? Well, the bit I enjoyed most in this morning's coverage was the quote buried deep in one of the reports. "People who know me understand that I would not want anything like a bus parade," said Rory. "And anyway, there are four of these Majors every year and I've only won one."

Now, I know that my Betting.Betfair colleague Paul Krishnamurty has already warned you against catching McIlroy fever, but I'm taking the opposite view. When Tiger was eating up the opposition on his way to 14 Majors he started every tournament at prices around [2.5] or [3.0]. Rory has been in the same sort of form, if you discount his last day meltdown at Augusta, yet is as long as [7.0] for the Open. That's amazing value.

He's not only saying, but also doing, all the right things. He'll prepare for Royal St George's in exactly the same way he did for the Congressional, with a week off before going to the course for some long private practice rounds - then not turning up in Kent until the Tuesday afternoon and playing just nine holes that night and again the next day. In the meantime, he'll be in the Royal Box at Wimbledon and in Germany to see David Haye fight Wladimir Klitschko. Good. He's staying relaxed.

Then there's the added bonus that the different tests of a spectacular links course will come as nothing new. While his playing partner for the first two rounds at Congressional, Dustin Johnson, is talking about joining the European Tour to get experience away from the perfectly manicured American fairways, McIlroy has been brought up amid the peculiar demands of different courses over here.

McIlroy has led, and led handsomely, for seven of the last eight rounds of golf in Major competitions. Why wouldn't you back him - at such a value price - to go on playing like that?

Five things you might not know about Dustin Johnson

1. Born June 1984 in Columbia, South Carolina. His grandfather on his mother's side Art Whisnant was an All-American basketball player who was drafted by the LA Lakers. His father Scott played wide receiver for South Carolina. It's an athletic family - his younger brother Austin has played guard at Charleston Southern.

2. Scott split from his mother Kandee in an acrimonious divorce in the late 1990s. Dustin and his sister Laurie chose to live with their father. According to accounts their parents have not spoken since.

3. Aged 16 Dustin was led astray as part of a school gang and ended up on parole after pleading guilty to a burglary charge involving the theft of a gun linked to a murder. He was given a full pardon nine years later.

4. The third longest driver on the PGA tour with an average 308 yards, he can hit the ball almost as far left-handed.

5. He was disqualified from a play-off for the 2010 USPGA Championship at Whistling Straits for grounding his club in a 'bunker' he thought was just a patch of dirt. He admitted he hadn't read a notice in the locker room explaining the local rules of the course.

The golf season enjoys a very mini break over the next fortnight so Steve focuses minds for the year to come with a quintet of bets that will be placed in 2011...

It's a stroll in the sun for Louis on a day when drama just didn't materialise......

South African cruises through the final round to win the open at St Andrews by seven shots.......

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Epsom Oaks betting: Wonder of Wonders has the pedigree

Ante-Post Betting / Graham Cunningham / 27 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wonder of Wonders, ridden by Ryan Moore, left a strong impression at Chester

"Her physique is impressive and, as a daughter of the Oaks runner-up All Too Beautiful from the family of the mighty Galileo and Sea The Starsher pedigree is outstanding."

It may not attract the same publicity as the Derby, but this year's Investec Oaks forms an absorbing puzzle with three of the biggest stables in Europe at its heart. Godolphin, Coolmore and Sir Michael Stoute dominate the market and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is wondering whether he has missed the boat with his main fancy.

The problem of what to do when you fancy a horse but miss the best of the value is familiar to punters the world over.

It's raising its head for yours truly in the case of Wonder Of Wonders in next Friday's Investec Oaks at Epsom.

Aidan O'Brien's filly was available at [11.0] for a while after bolting up in the Cheshire Oaks but is now only a shade over [5.00] on Betfair having been the subject of sustained support in recent weeks.

I did take a small piece of [9.00] but the simple question now relates to whether to step in again given what we know about the rest of the main contenders.

We know that Godolphin won the 1000 Guineas and Oaks with Kazzia and we know that Blue Bunting is bred to stay a mile and a half after completing the first half of the Classic double in willing fashion at Newmarket.

But we also know that Blue Bunting is currently rading at just [3.35] on Betfair. And that looks a little tight for comfort.

We know that Havant finished almost six lengths behind Blue Bunting on fast ground at HQ. But we also know that Havant looked a fine Oaks prospect under softer conditions last autumn and that she's bred to come into her own a mile and a half.

We know that Misty For Me's revival in last week's Irish Guineas means she boasts as many Group 1 wins as the rest of this field put together. But we also know that she isn't so stoutly bred on the female side of her pedigree as some in this field.

We know that Zain Al Boldan routed her rivals in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. But we also know that looked a very soft Classic trial and that Timeform ratings suggest she has the best part of a stone to find if Blue Bunting reproduces her Newmarket form at Epsom.

We know that Khawlah looks likely to be saved for Royal Ascot unless Blue Bunting suffers a reverse.

And we also know that Beatrice Aurore and Izzi Top are on the up but need to take another marked step forward in order to succeed at G1 level.

All in all, then, this looks a case of wait a little longer to learn about the ground and riding plans before deciding whether to climb aboard the Wonder Of Wonders bus.

Her physique is impressive and, as a daughter of the Oaks runner-up All Too Beautiful from the family of the mighty Galileo and Sea The Stars, her pedigree is outstanding.

Whether she has the ability to go with those two credentials remains to be seen, but she left a strong impression at Chester and adds yet another powerful string to the impressive O'Brien Epsom bow this year.

The markets suggest we are poised for a historic royal Derby winner when the exciting Carlton House heads to Epsom. But is it really that straightforward? Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham isn't convinced and sees several alternatives to Sir Michael Stoute's colt....

Our blogger sides against The Queen in the big one, assuming we all survive long enough to see the race!...

In a Royal wedding year, will the crowds at Epsom be cheering home a Derby winner owned by the reigning monarch? Timeform run the rule over the main contenders for the Blue Riband on June 4......

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