Showing posts with label Placepot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Placepot. Show all posts

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Sandown Placepot: Saturday August 30

"Spa’s Dancer was unsuited by the way the race developed on his last outing and is better judged on good seconds at Newbury and Redcar earlier this season..."

Timeform attempt to crack the placepot at Sandown...

14:05 - Tagula Night has a particular liking for Sandown's sprint track and can land a fourth C&D win here. He was unsuited by the running of the race when a creditable third last time at Windsor and a low draw and Ryan Moore in the saddle should see him to better effect. David O'Meara's Eccleston put in the best performance of his short career when winning over C&D in April and should appreciate today's soft going.

14:40 - Aktabantay had been the focus of punters' interest in the lead-up to today's Solario Stakes, but the money has now come for Godlophin's impressive Newmarket maiden winner Future Empire and he looks set to give a bold show. He beat three subsequent winners when opening his account on debut and can confirm that promise here.

15:15 - André Fabre has a formidable record with three-year-olds in the UK and Fintry can enhance an already impressive 60% strike rate in the Atalanta Stakes. This progressive filly took her form to another level when comfortably winning the Group Two Prix Sandringham at Chantilly when last seen. She beat some Group One performers that day and is still entitled to plenty of improvement so should have enough to score.

15:50 - Clon Brulee carries top-weight in this competitive handicap, but he was impressive when landing the spoils at Newmarket last time and can continue his good form here on ground he appreciates. The likeable Spa's Dancer is also worthy of an interest. He was unsuited by the way the race developed on his last outing and is better judged on good seconds at Newbury and Redcar earlier this season.

16:25 This is a tight little nursery in which Among Angels and Sister Of Mercy will hopefully keep us in the hunt. Among Angels ran with credit in the Windsor Castle and was seemingly not right when disappointing last time out. With a break and the booking of Ryan Moore in his favour, he can bounce back at the main expense of Roger Charlton's Sister Of Mercy.

17:00 - David Simcock's Zain Empire rates a solid option here. He has shown signs of inexperience since opening his account on debut at Carlisle, but has been going the right way and can improve past more experienced rivals today.

Selections:

14:05 - 3, 16
14:40 - 4
15:15 - 1
15:50 - 1, 4
16:25 - 1, 2
17:00 - 2

=8 lines


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Thursday, February 13, 2014

Musselburgh Placepot: Wednesday February 12

Radio Nowhere jumped boldly at Newcastle and could have more to offer in this sphere so we will bank on him...

Musselburgh is the only course that can provide national hunt action on Wednesday and that is where we head for our Placepot attempt...

13:40- A tricky low-grade affair kicks things off and the first horse that we will side with is Tears From Heaven as he shaped with some promise here last month, proving that he still retains his ability. He seems to go well at this venue (won a three-mile handicap chase in 2012) and another bold bid looks likely. Fozy Moss has improved on his poor hurdles form since switched over fences and bounced back from some lesser efforts to score at Carlisle last week. Provided he has recovered from those exertions, he is likely to go well.

14:10- Fennell Bay was a useful Flat handicapper for Mark Johnston and he seems to have taken well to hurdling based on his easy success at Fakenham. He remains open to considerable progress in this sphere and is banker material.

14:40- Radio Nowhere finished fourth in a strong handicap hurdle at Doncaster and confirmed that he was back to form with a good second on his chasing debut at Newcastle. He jumped boldly on that occasion and could have more to offer in this sphere so we will bank on him in order to keep the lines down.

15:15- Willie Hall has found a bit of form of late, winning with more in hand than the bare margin would imply at Sedgefield last time, and he is the first horse worth turning to. He travelled extremely well at Sedgefield before idling markedly late on and seemed to have a bit up his sleeve. It is also worth including Some Lad as he was in good form when last seen in the spring and has gone well fresh in the past. 

15:50- Forced Family Fun made a successful handicap debut in a competitive-looking race at Doncaster last month, travelling well and showing a good turn of foot to quicken clear of the pack with another rival. He is likely to progress further and it is difficult to see him finishing out of the frame.

16:25- Golan Way is an interesting recruit to the Hunter Chase ranks and could take his rivals apart here, but, while he was generally tough and reliable under Rules, it is worth noting that he has refused to race before. With Golan Way likely to take up much of the pool, we will take him on with Habbie Simpson and Beggar's Velvet. Habbie Simpson was a useful hurdler as a novice and clearly retains some ability based on his win in this sphere at Wetherby last year, while Beggar's Velvet was fairly useful over fences and can make an impact in this type of race.

Selections:
13:40- 3, 5
14:10- 1
14:40- 6
15:15- 13, 14
15:50- 9 
16:25- 2, 3
= 8 lines 

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Saturday, April 13, 2013

Doncaster Placepot: Saturday April 13

The two horses that instantly catch the eye in this event are Man of Plenty and Beyond Conceit, both horses that have switched yards, moving to the powerful stables of Ed Dunlop and Andrew Balding respectively...

Timeform's Tony McFadden tackles a tricky card at Doncaster, hoping to land the Placepot...

13:50- A six-runner maiden confined to two-year-olds, many of whom are making their first start, isn't the most appealing of propositions, but Donny Rover - a half-brother to the very smart Mac Love - did shape with conspicuous promise in the Brocklesby and is capable of much better with the benefit of that experience behind him. He is joined in the Placepot by the Ron Harris-trained Mr Dandy Man. A half-brother to several winners, Mr Dandy Man is bred for speed and it is encouraging to see his trainer already send out a two-year-old winner this term.

14:20- Things don't get much easier in the second leg as it is difficult to rule out any of the remaining six runners with confidence. Sovereign Debt progressed well last year, his season culminating with a creditable fifth in the Group 1 QEII at Ascot, and there is every chance he will be capable of even better this year. He is a fairly reliable type - a poor effort in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket his one bad run last year - and there is little reason to suspect this strong-travelling sort won't make a bold bid. The highly-tried Gabrial often found a few too good last season, but he has been gelded over the winter, his trainer has started the season firing and he doesn't have much to find on form with the likes of Highland Knight and Sovereign Debt.

14:55- The two horses that instantly catch the eye in this event are Man of Plenty and Beyond Conceit, both horses that have switched yards, moving to the powerful stables of Ed Dunlop and Andrew Balding respectively. Both horses actually hold strong claims purely based on the level of form they achieved last year, and, with improvement surely forthcoming for their new handlers, they should see us through the third leg.

15:30- A fiercely competitive event for us to negotiate but fortunately we can turn to a couple of reliable and progressive sprinters in Jack Dexter and Prodigality. The former has top-weight to defy, but he made a fantastic return to action, landing the Cammidge Trophy in authoritative style and he ought to be making his presence felt in the top pattern events later in the season. Prodigality also won on his return, producing a career-best effort in the process, and he still appears to be on an upward curve. He has experience in big-field handicaps, looking unlucky on a couple of occasions not to win one, and he deserves inclusion. 

16:05- It is interesting to see Albaqaa stepping back up in trip having been campaigned over inadequate distances of late and he is handicapped to win this having scored off higher marks last year. We will also add Patriotic who comes here on the back of a decent effort at this venue, finishing fourth to Educate. This longer trip ought to be within his compass and he is capable of making the frame again.

16:40- Lewisham's excellent second in the July Stakes last term sets the standard, but he is perhaps flattered by that effort and will have plenty of lines riding on him. We will take him on with Robot Boy, a colt trained by David Barron. Robot Boy is seemingly well regarded, sent off at 3-1 on his debut, and while he couldn't make an impression at Pontefract he did show more ability when third at Nottingham. He remains open to improvement and goes in as our last-leg banker. 

Selections:
13:50- 1, 3
14:20- 3, 5
14:55- 6, 11
15:30- 1, 4
16:05- 11, 13
16:40- 7
= 32 lines

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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Carlisle Placepot: Tuesday April 9

"It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.75/7 mark."

There are tricky elements wherever we go for today's Placepot, but the small fields at Carlisle look the most easily managed.

14:20 - The opening novice chase can quickly be reduced to three, lack of ability essentially ruling out the bottom three on the racecard. Of those left, Dolatulo is clearly the best option, his chasing experience the most extensive in the field and his suitability for the trip assured. At a different course, we might have given more weight to Alta Rock's chasing experience, but the chances are that the much more able Drill Sergeant will cope with the demands of Carlisle's soft fences on his chasing debut and therefore he finds his way into the perm.

14:50 - The first of three legs which contain a bare seven runners, and although several are unexposed our choices in this race aren't too difficult to arrive at, with seemingly harshly-treated handicap debutants like Right To Rule and Somerset Island not really Placepot types. Although we're nominating Takaatuf first, he isn't necessarily our first choice, his inclusion based on the idea that this stiff 17 furlongs on better ground will bring out the best in him. A choice between Yorkist and Mojolika, second and first respectively over C&D last time, presents itself for our other spot, with the fact that Mojolika rather overcame the run of things that day, coupled with the idea that Takaatuf may not allow Yorkist his own way up front this time, leading us to land on Mojolika.

15:20 - It says plenty about leg three that Sleep In First, winner of a couple of pretty wretched races on his last two starts and now a stone higher in the weight than for the first of those successes, is only around the 1.75/7 mark. We could try and second-guess some of his rivals, but no clues are immediately forthcoming and it's much easier, and cheaper, just to bank on the in-form favourite.

15:50 - Despite a fairly big field, it looks as though there won't be much pace in this race (a view backed up by Timeform's In-Play Hints), something which could play into the hands of Nicene Creed, who was ridden prominently when landing a gamble last time. He's still very well handicapped on his best and has shown himself able to back up good runs in the past, so he's a sure thing for our perm. It's a case of hope rather than projection that Polarbrook will be ridden with sufficient enterprise, but the impression left last time (on his first start for Donald McCain, having left Kim Bailey) was so strong that we can overlook the vastly different trip unknown in terms of tactics. 

16:25 - The final seven-runner affair in the 'Pot' (assuming we have no non-runners in the last between the time of writing and 16:55), but more significant here is that five of the seven have either a squiggle or an 'x' attached to their master rating. Super Ally is one of the exceptions, and although his jumping isn't exactly the most assured he's generally consistent and put in one of his better rounds over Carlisle's fences back in November, so he's worthy of a place. We could include both Lord Villez and Etxalar to pretty much guarantee passage to the last leg, but that might get expensive so we'll turf out Etxalar, who is shorter in the betting despite looking a bit vulnerable raised 11 lb for his C&D win last time.

16:55 - William Money is another case of a horse that is ordinary value in the win market, but is so because he's been solid of late and therefore he's worthy of inclusion in our perm irrespective of the fact he'll carry more of the pool than he'll deserve to. Second selection, Foot The Bill, has been placed on three of his four starts this season; he looked to be outpaced over something similar to this trip on his reappearance, though that was at Market Rasen and this stiffer track should be more suitable.

Selections:
14:20 - 2, 3
14:50 - 4, 6
15:20 - 4
15:50 - 1, 10
16:25 - 1, 4
16:55 - 3, 7
= 32 lines 


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Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Ascot Placepot: Sunday April 7

"Greywell Boy has impressed with his jumping since being switched to fences and there is every chance that he could land the hat-trick this afternoon..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner tackles the Ascot Placepot on Sunday...

14:15 - A non-runner has reduced this field to 15, leaving us with just the three places to aim at, so although it is slightly uninventive we are going to start by including the Nicky Henderson-trained Courtesy Call, who was useful on the Flat for Mark Johnston and, having been pitched in at the deep end on his hurdling debut, ought to find this slightly easier. It also worth sticking in Warden Hill, who may not come into his own until he is tried over even further but remains open to further improvement and has a little bit of experience to call upon. 

14:50 - Emma Lavelle gained her first winner of 2013 at Aintree yesterday but that isn't enough to persuade us to side with Well Regarded here, so instead we will take Molotof. The six-year-old was out of his depth in the Jewson on his latest start but this represents a much easier assignment and he looks the one to beat. 

15:25 - Although I harbour slight concerns over how some of Donald McCain's horses have been running lately you cannot escape the fact that Aazif, who was fairly useful on the flat, begins life in handicaps over timber on an attractive mark. He remains with plenty of potential in this sphere for all that he has failed to win in two attempts, but he could rectify that statistic now. Sky Khan also makes his handicap debut here and he could go well with cheekpieces in place for the first time, so he makes plenty of appeal as a bit of back up. 

16:00 - Greywell Boy has impressed with his jumping since being switched to fences and there is every chance that he could land the hat-trick this afternoon, particularly when bearing in mind that he is open to further progress. The one caveat with regards to his chances is that there looks to be plenty of pace on, so we may be wise to include Jackies Solitaire, who is pretty versatile tactically, in the hope that she can pick up the pieces were the pace to collapse late on. 

16:40 - Hold On Julio is certainly on a fair mark if his jumping holds up bet he is a risky selection, so we will instead side with Fruity O'Rooney and Mr Gardner (no relation). The first mentioned is an admirably genuine and consistent performer who really deserves to get his head in front again whilst Mr Gardner has shaped well on his two starts since a lengthy absence and looks one to keep an eye on. 

17:10 - Although there is a relatively big field for the final leg we are going to bank upon the Paul Nicholls-trained Sin Bin, who seems sure to be suited this step up in trip and is a leading player on his handicap bow. 

Selections: 
14:15 - 15, 16
14:50 - 2
15:25 - 7, 11
16:00 - 7, 10
16:40 - 3, 6
17:10 - 14
= 16 lines

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Friday, March 22, 2013

Wolverhampton Placepot: Friday March 22

"Our other selection is Monsieur Pontaven, who has also been more solid this year than his form figures give him credit for."

With so much doubt surrounding the turf meetings this morning, today's Placepot perm comes from the evening card at Wolverhampton.

17:55 - We're going to try and keep things light on today's Pot, so for all this opener is a four-runner affair we're going to bank on Secret of Success. None of her opponents would appear to have anything like her potential, while she looked professional enough on her debut to suggest that inexperience is no more than a minor concern. What's more, she may get and easy lead.

18:30 - Unfortunately, this leg is also down to four now, while it's a much tougher one to call, too, with three of those that remain arriving in good form. We're therefore going to take Admirable Duque, Jezza and Waving, fairly safe with the idea that Cash Injection won't win.

19:00 - Baltic Prince is a worthy favourite, his form having taken off on his last two starts, while the likelihood is he'll cope with this longer trip given the way he stayed on over six last time, though he's possibly shorter than he deserves to be, while we could do with getting at least one favourite out. The alternative is to bank on Actonetaketwo, who has run well to place on her last two starts and is the only one likely to be asked to make the running in this heat.

19:30 - This three-year-old handicap is simply too competitive to allow us to bank. The good news, though, is that we can also avoid putting in likely favourite Khudoua, who isn't much of a Placepot prospect on account of his absence, acknowleding he's bred to be much better than a BHA rating of 74. Pairumani Prince probably wouldn't be that high on the list for win purposes, but he's shown himself consistent (won three in a row prior to creditable fourth on return from a break last time) and his pedigree suggests that a step up to this extended nine furlongs may yet draw some more improvement from him, especially considering he has the benefit of a recent run behind him. Second spot goes to Diletta Tommasa, who has had excuses whenever she's run below form and could still be ahead of her mark raised just 2 lb for her win last time.

20:00 - A last-time out win means that Angelena Ballerina is as short as she should be to win this race, she's been more consistent so far in 2013 than her overall record implies and she's therefore a good Placepot prospect even considering fairly skinny odds. Our other selection is Monsieur Pontaven, who has also been more solid this year than his form figures give him credit for. He's unproven beyond an extended mile, but the way he's been shaping this season he shouldn't find today's trip too far.

20:30 - This is the best race on the card, yet mercifully we can probably get away with a banker to round off our perm. My Son Max is both solid and adaptable in terms of trip; his very best form has come over slightly further than five furlongs, though the chances are that only trouble in running has held him back from running right up to form on his last two starts. Bank on My Son Max to see us home.

Selections:
17:55 - 1
18:30 - 2, 3, 4
19:00 - 5
19:30 - 3, 5
20:00 - 1, 10
20:30 - 1
= 12 lines

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Sunday, March 17, 2013

Uttoxeter Placepot: Saturday March 16

"Chac du Cadran has presumably been held back for this since winning the North Yorkshire National in January..."

It mightn't be the Cheltenham Festival (at which, I should point out, my colleague Matt Gardner landed a slice of the Friday pool), but Saturday's Uttoxeter card is a very good one for the track and it's there we're heading for Saturday's Placepot...

14:05 - As you might expect of a decent Saturday card, this opening novice handicap hurdle contains some interesting sorts, few more so than Tresor de Bontee, whose Hereford win in the autumn looks to have been underestimated. He failed to do himself justice last time and has been off another two months since, but if on song he's bound to go close. Rocky Elsom provides a marginally more solid option, being on a hat-trick and having the benefit of a recent run. Although probably not as well handicapped as Tresor de Bontee, Rocky Elsom should be up to putting on a bold show.

14:40 - Most of these novice chasers would be of above-average interest under different circumstances, though here we have a pair with form in better races and it's that pair we'll be taking. Hunters Lodge has been holding it together in decent races since winning an amateur riders' event at Cheltenham in the autumn and will look an increasingly attractive prospect the more testing conditions become. Savant Bleu was a clear second at Newbury last time behind another most unexposed chaser. He won't be inconvenienced by this longer trip for a yard that's been among the winners of late.

15:15 - We're sticking with the theme of horses dropping down in grade for the third race. Kaylif Aramis was beaten two necks in a race at Kempton on Racing Plus Chase day and before that had beaten the well-touted The Bear Trap at Ffos Las. Hold Court was only sixth on his handicap debut at Ascot last time, but he'd been held up in a race that didn't suit such tactics and certainly shaped well enough to suggest that he'll be highly competitive from a slightly lower mark in a lesser race.

15:50 - It's an unusually competitive renewal of the Midlands National; normally most of the field are exposed old plodders, but today sees several young chasers stepping up and a there would be cases to be made for most of them in terms of our perm. However, mindful of what's to come we can take only two. Fill The Power has been consistent throughout the season, yet all the while he's been crying out for a try over an extreme trip. This is the first time he's been granted such a test and therefore he makes the cut. Second in is Chac du Cadran, who has presumably been held back for this since winning the North Yorkshire National in January. He mightn't get an easy time of it up front, but he's a sound jumper and more of a reliable proposition than a number of others who'll try to lay up with the pace.

16:25 - We're in need of a banker, and this handicap chase looks the best opportunity. Galway Jack is the only established front runner in the field, is top on adjusted Timeform ratings and has the style of one that's good for Placepots, being a strong-travelling sort. What's more, this trip and slightly less testing conditions might help him see things out a bit better than he has been of late.

17:00 - This is easily the worst race of the six, being a low-grade handicap hurdle thin on consistent, let alone interesting, runners. We're reduced to plumping for Mr Robinson, who has run well on three of four starts for his current yard and may find a testing two and a half miles to be an agreeable compromise in terms of trip. We're having to take a risk with our second selection whatever it is, so See You Jack, who has more going for him than most, sneaks in. Well handicapped on the pick of his chase form, See You Jack ran an encouraging race on his return to hurdles last time, finding only one too good. If he can belatedly bring his hurdles form in line, he could go close.

Selections:
14:05 - 2, 5
14:40 - 3, 4
15:15 - 2, 9
15:50 - 6, 10
16:25 - 3
17:00 - 1, 10
= 32 lines

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Sunday, February 3, 2013

Wetherby Placepot: Saturday February 2

"Super Duty was a useful novice hurdler last term and looks set to be an even better chaser, getting off the mark over fences with an impressive success at Cheltenham in December..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner heads to Wetherby hopeful of a Placepot windfall...

13:00 - Renoyr, formerly trained by Elizabeth Doyle in Ireland, showed much improved form on debut for current connections when getting off the mark at Doncaster in December, travelling smoothly and being value for more than the five length winning margin. A 10 lb rise for that win looks to leave him well treated still and he seems sure to go well in an attempt to follow up but it is also worth sticking in Embsay Crag, who shaped well on return from a six month absence over C&D on his latest outing and is likely to come on for that run. 

13:35 - Hunter chases are never easy and, with just two places to aim, at this contest is no different but we ought to progress by including both Palypso de Creek and Special Portrait. The former showed fair form when placed in all four outings in this sphere last year and added another point win to his tally when scoring for his new yard last month, whilst Special Portrait was prolific in hunter chases in 2012, winning four on the bounce, and it is possible that he was in need of the run at Kelso last time having been off the track for nine months. 

14:10 - Mister Bricolage shaped encouragingly prior to falling heavily at Exeter on his hurdling debut but, of those to the fore of the market, preference is for Big Society, who got off the mark over timber at the third attempt last time despite the two miles and three furlongs faced that day seeming inadequate; the return to this sort of trip ought to suit and he remains open to improvement. Taking a bit of a flyer on Wolf Shield could pay dividend, with it worth bearing in mind the promise he demonstrated in bumpers. He shaped as if needing the run on his hurdling debut at this venue in October, not being knocked about in the straight, and he strikes as the type to do better at some stage. 

14:45 - With likely favourite Arkdilly Witness a non-runner we have just two places to aim at, but we have a decent chance of doubling up with Farmer Matt and War On. The first mentioned has progressed well since being switched to handicaps, winning at Exeter and Ascot on his last two starts, and he could have yet more to offer whilst War On, who made the frame four times in Irish points last year, got off the mark in this sphere at this venue in November and seems likely to stay this far, so is of definite interest on his handicap debut. 

15:20 - The Tim Easterby-trained Fourjacks makes plenty of appeal here but we need to save lines somewhere, so Super Duty goes in as a banker. The seven-year-old was a useful novice hurdler last term and looks set to be an even better chaser, getting off the mark over fences with an impressive success at Cheltenham in December. He is well worth a go in this company and could even go on to better things at some stage.
15:55 - A tricky handicap concludes proceedings, though the Sue Smith-trained Gansey looks a good starting point. The 11-year-old is a C&D winner who has looked as good as ever in finishing second on his last two starts and, although he isn't hiding anything from the handicapper, he seems more likely to run his race than many in this field. Whats Up Woody runs from 1 lb out of the handicap but his consistent recent profile makes plenty of appeal and he seems likely to make a good fist of grabbing a place. 

Selections:
13:00 - 6, 9
13:35 - 4, 7
14:10 - 1, 10
14:45 - 5, 6
15:20 - 3
15:55 - 3, 11
= 32 lines

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Sunday, January 6, 2013

Plumpton Placepot: Sunday January 6

"Mission Complete is clearly of interest raised just 4 lb for a win over the same trip at Warwick last time, while he held his form well enough once finding it last year to think he’ll do himself justice today."

It's Sussex National day at Plumpton, one of the track's biggest cards of the year. Keith Melrose has tackled the Placepot...

12:55 - This is a competitive novice hurdle for Plumpton- in few similar events would proven fairly useful sort Kuilsriver be available at a double-figure price. He's left out as he does most of his racing over further, while favourite Mr Watson is too short a price for one who has hinted at quirks, so we're left with Mister Newby and Lone Ranger. Mister Newby won a bumper here and made an encouraging hurdling debut over C&D under similar conditions, finding only Pendra too good. Lone Ranger is included chiefly because backup is probably necessary in a race such as this, while his smart Flat form in France could make him the best of these if he's ready to go starting out for Venetia Williams.

13:25 - The market has this as a toss-up between Sladen Licht and Vulcanite. Even for Placepot purposes it's tough to split them, but we should need only one to progress. Narrow preference is for Vulcanite, as he looked marginally the better short-term prospect when accounting for Salden Licht at Hereford on their respective chasing debuts.

13:55 - Ask for the two best prospects in this novice hurdle and you'd get a confident answer- Venceremos from Lost Legend- but with the former a hurdling debutante and the latter seemingly being aimed at handicaps our task suddenly becomes trickier. Venceremos is still worth including, as she's bred to thrive over this trip and further, while she's in excellent hands with Charlie Longsdon. Rich Buddy is taken as our second selection. His win at Worcester over the summer looks good for the time of year and he can be excused a slightly substandard run five months later on his only start since. 

14:25 - Plenty of these are difficult to place much faith in, including Aureate, but he won last time out and this is the type of race in which good recent form can prove especially valuable. Marble Walk is a more conventional selection, being on a fair mark now based on his third-placed finish over 25 furlongs here. He appeared not to get home that day and can go close now dropped half a mile in trip.

14:55 - The big race of the day is predictably tough, though not in the way you might expect as there are doubts hanging over plenty of the 12-strong field. Mission Complete is clearly of interest raised just 4 lb for a win over the same trip at Warwick last time, while he held his form well enough once finding it last year to think he'll do himself justice today. Runner-up to him at Warwick was Reblis, who himself was taking a big step forward on what was his first start for Charlie Longsdon. He's worthy of inclusion, especially if ridden prominently as he was at Warwick.

15:30 - This final leg is arguably the trickiest of the lot, with nothing really jumping out as a solid Placepot prospect. The in-form Midnight Macarena would be the nearest thing, though her jumping hasn't always been the most dependable and support is definitely required. Fellow last-time-out winner Join The Navy has been put up sharply, but will benefit from this longer trip and has few blotches on his (admittedly light) profile thus far, so rates as a better option than most.

Selections:
12:55 - 8, 9
13:25 - 1
13:55 - 2, 11
14:25 - 2, 6
14:55 - 1, 10
15:30 - 1, 7
= 32 lines   

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Thursday, January 3, 2013

Cheltenham Placepot: Sunday November 18

"Nicky Henderson really is no fun at all, isn’t he? Darlan is out of the RP Hurdle, but to be honest he would have been merely an opposable favourite as far as this perm’s concerned..."

After an agonising five out of six yesterday, Keith Melrose is back for more on the last day of the Open meeting.

13:10 - Were it not for the shadow of his stablemate Simonsig hanging over the race, I think Captain Conan would be my early pick for the Arkle. He's a strong-travelling type who is also a brute of a horse, just the type to make a top two-mile chaser, and he's just the sort of horse to provide an early banker for our Placepot, for all his complete lack of experience over fences.

13:45 - It's been a Nicholls and Pipe jamboree so far this week, and we'll take that theme into the second leg. For the champion trainer, we have Ruben Cotter, who could be bound for a high level judging by his ready success in a warm race at Exeter back in May. Pipe is represented in our perm by Close House, who despite having just three runs over hurdles to his name has already shown what he can do in top company, fourth to Simonsig in March's Neptune, and is likely to be suited by whatever conditions prevail today.

14:20 - Anti-climactic doesn't begin to describe the Shloer Chase, robbed of its significance by Sprinter Sacre's withdrawal. Favourite by default is now Wishfull Thinking, but having held such high hopes for him last season it's a case of 'once bitten, twice shy' for me, so I recommend taking him on with Doeslessthanme, who was consistent as well as progressive for Paul Nicholls in 2011/12 and is all-but certain to be fit given the fettle his yard have been in this autumn.

14:50 - Nicky Henderson really is no fun at all, isn't he? Darlan is out of the RP Hurdle, but to be honest he would have been merely an opposable favourite as far as this perm's concerned, there being plenty of attractive alternatives. Chief among them is Kazlian, who only lost the Fred Winter because Tom Scudamore was apparently 'on tilt' following Grands Crus' flat run in the RSA the same day. Here's hoping a good night's sleep has put Tom in a better mood after Grands Crus' latest disappointment. Prospect Wells is a good option for our Placepot, too, as he's been consistent as a hurdler and could do even better faced with his stiffest test of stamina yet over timber.

15:25 -  In an attempt to save lines, we won't get too bogged down in this competitive Grade 2 novice hurdle and simply select who we see as the best prospect. That honour goes to Fox Run, a mightily impressive winner at Worcester on his debut for Paul Nicholls who we see as likely to be running in the best novice hurdles this season. 

16:00 - A bumper is almost never welcome as the last leg of a Placepot, and this one more than most as both Pipe and Nicholls have interested recruits in the form of The Liquidator and Fascino Rustico respectively. Nevertheless, we can take such tricky propositions out of the equation by banking on Monkey Kingdom, who has experience around here and is seemingly well regarded by a yard which has a reputation for doing well with bumper horses.

Selections:

13:10 - 2
13:45 - 5, 6
14:20 - 2
14:50 - 3, 12
15:25 - 7
16:00 - 3
= 4 lines

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Catterick Placepot: Wednesday August 29

Indego Blues is one of two three-year-olds in the race and should appreciate the drop back in trip after disappointing on quick ground over seven furlongs last time.

Natasha Coates is in North Yorkshire this afternoon for her tilt at the Placepot...

14:10 - The first race on the card looks a tricky affair, now down to six runners suggesting two selections will be necessary. The pick on form is Fidget, who improved from his debut to finish two and a half lengths third to Stand of Glory at Thirsk, and should go better again, back down in class. The ground is an unknown for most of these and, with that in mind, it may pay to take a risk on the one horse who has at least got form under testing conditions, namely Betty Boo. On debut at Nottingham, she ran her best race on heavy ground, and disappointing runs since could arguably be put down to unsuitable conditions. She showed a bit more on her good to soft nursery debut last time at Newcastle to back that up and is chanced to get the Placepot off to a good start.

14:40 - Another race with very few proven on the ground and plenty of already exposed types. Once-raced Vanity's Girl is the clear pick on form and will be suited by the step up in trip after finishing a promising six length runner-up to Sir Maximilian at Doncaster in June. That form has turned out well with both Million Faces and stablemate Planetex going on to win. She has had a break since then, and could go one better today for a yard that's in the winners. For our purposes, a top three finish will be enough.

15:10 - Solar View looks a solid selection from Sir Mark Prescott's stable, where Luke Morris makes the trip for this horse only. The yard has had many horses placed of late, despite missing out on the top prize, which suits our purpose and at a track that the trainer has a good record at, Solar View, who is 5 lb well in, should be in the mix at the end. There are doubts over his ability on soft ground, however, so we'll take out some insurance. Course specialist Bijou Dan is a consistent horse, scoring a hat-trick of seconds this season, and given that he is sure to handle the ground, we'll put our faith in the veteran.

15:40 - Mark Johnston's Idler has good claims to follow up under a penalty, after a career-best effort at Newmarket to finish one and a half lengths clear of Minalisa. The drop back in grade should help now against older horses and stepping up to seven furlongs. He didn't get home over that distance as a two-year-old, but is tried again over a course that he won at on heavy ground last year. The combination of Silvestre de Sousa and his old boss have a great record at Catterick, to offer some confidence in our selection. Half A Billion is second choice with Lee Topliss taking the ride, at the track that he has landed half of his rides for the trainer. Another who'll race up with the pace, Half A Billion steps back up to seven furlongs for the first time since May, only 2 lb higher than his last winning mark and should be thereabouts.

16:10 - Llewellyn and Indego Blues are the picks for this six-furlong handicap. Both from the David Nicholls stable, and with some course form, they have every chance to fill the top spots. Llewellyn joined Nicholls from Bill Turner last time after finishing runner-up in a seller here and will handle the ground over this trip. Indego Blues is one of two three-year-olds in the race and should appreciate the drop back in trip after disappointing on quick ground over seven furlongs last time. He now carries 2 lb less, and back under optimum conditions, should run into a place.

16:40 - Something of a risk in this final race, now Penang Pegasus is withdrawn, with two untested picks. Pugnacious has been racing on the polytrack, and goes back to the turf for the first time since his debut. The first-time blinkers are chanced to help for only his second run in a handicap though, with the very able assistance of Danny Tudhope on board. No Dominion has yet to try this distance and we are no closer to knowing if he may stay after having bad luck in running the last twice over ten furlongs. He is given a chance on this occasion to run well after a month off on though, now down in class for a stable in form.

Selections:

14:10 - 3, 5
14:40 - 9
15:10 - 2, 8
15:40 - 1, 5
16:10 - 4, 6
16:40 - 2, 5
= 32 lines


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Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Epsom Placepot: Tuesday August 28

One might have expected Mayo Lad to be a clear favourite following his easy win at Leicester last time (for which he has been raised just 4 lb)...

With the Bank Holiday comedown still in effect, a low-lines approach could be best at Epsom this afternoon. Keith Melrose offers his perm...

14:15 - A few interesting sorts in this nursery, not least Romanoff and Epsom Flyer, but there's no doubting how solid Lisa's Legacy is and she rates as a reasonable banker prospect. She's got used to the rough-and-tumble of racing in maidens, actually suffering interference when shaping a clear second-best behind a useful prospect last time. Her BHA mark looks fairly lenient even before factoring in the improvement she's bound to show one day over seven furlongs plus, so hopefully this single arrow is all we'll need in leg one.

14:50 - Last-time-out winner Clear Praise is a bigger price than might have been expected, that possibly down to the perception that he's best over five furlongs, but he's shown enough over this trip (albeit chiefly on polytrack) that stamina surely won't be an issue, especially considering he was a respectable fourth over C&D just over a year ago. Second spot goes to Baby Strange, who's been even more consistent than recent form figures imply, undone by the draw at Goodwood last time. He's something of a professional loser, but another finish in the first three will do us fine, while he showed enough over this C&D at the Derby meeting to prove his effectiveness around here.

15:25 - There's no doubt that Van Percy holds the best form on offer, but with three places currently up for grabs we can use a bit of poetic licence. Royal Skies has a good deal more experience than the favourite, and has even done it round here (third over seven furlongs last time out); with this longer trip sure to suit and there not being any obvious challenge for the lead, we can put our faith in Mark Johnston's charge.

15:55 - One might have expected Mayo Lad to be a clear favourite following his easy win at Leicester last time (for which he has been raised just 4 lb), the feeling being that, like Clear Praise, the market has cast his effectiveness at the trip into doubt. I don't feel the return to seven furlongs will be a problem though, considering the way he travelled at Leicester and the fact that he was good enough to win a six-furlong handicap at Wolverhampton not so long ago, while his consistency this season seals the deal. Lolita Lebron, rather sparked into life by the addition of a hood on recent runs, probably rates as the biggest danger and therefore also gets a spot.

16:30 - A good number of these are unexposed, but there's reason to be sceptical about the temperament of both Twelve Strings and Seven Veils, so preference is for Novirak and Jane Lachatte. Novirak is a four-year-old, but has made just five starts so far, only two of which really count it could be argued, his first two outings all about experience and his reappearance seemingly needed for fitness. He was fourth in a decent handicap at Doncaster last time, suggesting that the step up to this trip may draw more from him in the way he shaped. Our other selection Jane Lachatte has the advantage of good course form (two wins and a second from three starts), but there is some concern in that all her best efforts so far have come on softer than good and she's been a bit too free for her own good on recent starts. Even so, she's evidently in form and is well enough treated to get right into the mix today.

17:00 - The claims of If I Were A Boy are obvious, but by the same token she's likely to carry a significant slice of the pool and, with a couple of fairly attractive sorts against her in this, we can oppose her in hope of a slip-up. First in is Miss Cap Estel, who has never yet raced over this far but, being by Hernando and related to a number of winners beyond a mile, shouldn't have any problem with the trip. Second for our perm is Welsh Nayber, a consistent if perhaps not progressive three-year-old who may never have faced the undulations of Epsom but has found plenty of joy at Brighton, which provides as close to an approximant test as you're likely to get on these shores.

Selections
14:15 - 4
14:50 - 3, 5
15:25 - 5
15:55 - 2, 3
16:30 - 1, 6
17:00 - 6, 11
= 16 lines


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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Sandown Placepot: Wednesday July 18

Not to put too fine a point on it, with a better ride Picture Dealer would have won at Doncaster last time...

Timeform's Keith Melrose offers his suggested Placepot perm for this evening's meeting at Sandown...

17:55 - Dominate rates as the likeliest winner, but in a field of six and currently odds on he's probably not ideal banker material, especially considering two of his rivals stand out as likely sorts should he fluff his lines. Red Explorer is ultimately going to need further than five furlongs, but he was beaten by inexperience first and foremost at Haydock on debut and will at least be suited by this more testing course, while Starlight Angel was highly tried last time yet still showed enough to suggest she can make an impact again returned to calmer waters.

18:30 - Unlike the first, this six-runner handicap is very much one for a banker selection. Not to put too fine a point on it, with a better ride Picture Dealer would have won at Doncaster last time, finding trouble having started from an unpromising position yet still held off by only a nose. Ryan Moore replaces Tom Queally in the saddle and, quite frankly, we'd be surprised if Moore can't get a win out of Picture Dealer this evening for father Gary.

19:00 - With eight still in this maiden at the time of writing, we can probably afford to bank on Haatefina, whose third-placed finish to Maureen at Newbury last time is easily the best form on offer from those that have run. Should the field shrink any further between now and when you place your bet, you may want to put Hannon debutant Law Enforcement in as backup, but for now we're happy with one selection.

19:30 - Another race teetering on the edge with eight runners. Banking isn't really an option in this, mind you, with no standout and plenty with a chance. Shavansky is our first choice, his consistency at this level hard to crab, while his last run, when he was arguably unlucky, suggests he's possibly in the mood to win let alone place. Although Viscount Vert mightn't have completed the hat-trick had he not unseated rider last time, he clearly shaped as though still in form and more than warrants a place in our perm.

20:05 - A seven-runner handicap for three-year-olds in which we're going to take two, neither of which are bombproof but who between them are likely to supply a horse in the first two. First of them is Debating Society, who has shaped as though ahead of his mark on a couple of starts and travelled best over 11 furlongs at Kempton last time. He's joined by Ace of Valhalla, who could be chucked in on the strength of some of his maiden form and will likely find the test at this trip right up his street, for all that a three-month absence raises some minor concerns.

20:35 - Although this closing race isn't an easy one to weigh up, there are a couple in the field who've thrived since tackling conditions such as those likely to prevail this evening. They are Byron Blue and Bathwick Street. The first-named opened his account on soft ground over this trip at Haydock last time, though admittedly some of his improvement that day might have stemmed from him breaking on terms for a change. You have to go back two starts for Bathwick Street's distance win, but he showed a most willing attitude that day at Nottingham to score by five lengths and, for all he finished third last time, there's every reason to think his current mark is at least fair.

Selections:
17:55 - 6, 7
18:30 - 4
19:00 - 8
19:30 - 2, 3
20:05 - 1, 2
20:35 - 2, 6
= 16 lines

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Sunday, April 22, 2012

Newbury Placepot: Saturday April 21

Bronterre's fourth in last season's Dewhurst makes him a strong player in the Greenham...

Timeform's Joe Szekeres heads to Newbury to offer his placepot permutation for this afternoon's card...

13:30 - Noble Mission is a horse of immediate hype given his full-brother status to Frankel but that does not detract from the quality he demonstrated on debut at Yarmouth towards the tail-end of last season. Noble Mission was poorly positioned that day and had to be waited with on the stand side, but he still travelled through his race with notable fluency and, despite having little chance with the winner, saw off some other well-bred types inside the closing stages. It's never wise to advise a banker in a maiden, and this is no exception, so we're also going to side with Cappielow Park who achieved a similar level of form to Noble Mission during a race at Wolverhampton last season.

14:00 - The second leg looks an race of the high quality and the 2010 St Leger winner, Arctic Cosmos, looks the one to beat if anything near his best. He should have no problem with the one-and-a-half-mile trip having demonstrated plenty of speed on his seasonal reappearance over ten furlongs at Kempton last time. The main danger could be Harris Tweed, the next best based on Timeform ratings. William Haggas has been in good form of late and Harris Tweed is another that can go well for him.

14:35 - Best Terms looks banker material in the next given her stature at the head of the ratings, considered 13 lb superior to her nearest rival. Best Terms was one of the leading juvenile fillies last season, landing the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and the Group 2 Lowther Stakes, form well in advance of anything the opposing field should be capable of.

15:10 - Bronterre's fourth in last season's Dewhurst makes him a strong player in the Greenham and he should be capable of surpassing that level of form this year if he has learnt to settle over the winter. The main danger would have been Top Offer but his late withdrawal and the fact that two places still pay make Bronterre banker material.

15:45 - Mull of Killough is likely to be overbet having flown at the finish in last month's Lincoln Handicap and there is a feeling that he missed a big opportunity on that occasion. One that finished behind Mull of Killough is Fury, who travelled as good as any for much of the way and was denied a clear run at a crucial stage before sticking on well. He looks the type to make progress this season and could be ahead of his mark. Others worthy of inclusion are Captain Bertie, who is Timeform top-rated, and Dubawi Sound, who could be much better than his current BHA Mark gives credit for and features in Timeform Horses to Follow 2012.

16:20 - Another maiden to end the card and the pair we're going to take are Minimise Risk, who shaped with great promise on debut at Doncaster last time and King of Dudes, who really caught the eye when beaten into second at Wolverhampton towards the end of last year. The pair should be enough if we progress this far and there is always the chance of a double-up.

Selections:

13:30 - 2, 9
14:00 - 3, 6
14:35 - 1
15:10 - 2
15:45 - 1, 12, 18
16:20 - 3, 5
=24 Lines

.........................
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Monday, April 9, 2012

Musselburgh Placepot: Sunday April 8

Daily Placepots RSS / / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mick Channon: Trainer of Perfect Words.

Mick Channon: Trainer of Perfect Words.

"A repetition of Perfect Words’ performances in the Brocklesbury, then at Folkestone four days ago, will be enough for him to make the first two..."

The day's sole Flat meeting at Musselburgh is more competitive than either of the National Hunt cards and strikes as the best venue for a placepot...

13.50 - A repetition of Perfect Words' performances in the Brocklesbury, then at Folkestone four days ago, will be enough for him to make the first two in the two-year-old seller, so banking on him looks the way to go.

2.20 - The second race isn't anywhere near so clear cut with the favourite Arganil hard to trust and plenty of others making their reappearance. One of those that tends to go well fresh is Boundaries, who dropped to a handy mark towards the end of 2011 and is worth chancing to overcome stall 1. The well drawn Ingleby Star is likely to benefit from the return to turf after a couple of below-par efforts on polytrack, so is also worth having on side.

2.50 - Rothesay Chancer thrived at Musselburgh in the early part of last year and, with the pick of the draw, is worth having on side to make the three in the second sprint on the card. Crimea had a quiet 2011, only appearing three times, but he returns on a handy mark and the Dandy Nicholls stable has made a good start to the season, so he's also worth having on side.

15.20 - Horses that leave Aidan O'Brien and move to a lesser yard rarely improve so the percentage call is to oppose the ungenuine President Lincoln in the maiden with Hawks Reef and Three Darlings, who have just three runs between them and look open to improvement.

15.50 - Shubaat is certainly a very interesting runner in the penultimate leg, but a horse that made just one appearance last year and now returns from another lengthy absence isn't the right type for a placepot so he's opposed with Jeu de Vivre and Meetings Man, who are both very consistent and have a combined record of 1222 at Musselburgh.

16.20 - No need to look beyond the head of the betting in the final leg, Maid of Meft was impressive at Wolverhampton on her first outing for a new stable earlier in the week and Ministerofinterior is thrown in from 53 based on the form he's been showing over hurdles recently.

Selections:

13:50 - 1
14:20 - 5, 6
14:50 - 1, 7
15:20 - 5, 9
15:50 - 9, 10
16:25 - 1, 6
= 32 lines

Timeform's Joe Szekeres offers his Placepot permutation at Kempton on Easter Saturday and he is hoping to land the prize with just 16 lines......

An unsuccessful placepot at Wolverhampton last night has made Timeform's Matt Gardner all the more determined to land the prize at Folkestone this afternoon......

Wolverhampton's evening meeting is in the placepot line of fire on Wednesday for Timeform's Matt Gardner......


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Thursday, April 5, 2012

Wolverhampton Placepot: Wednesday April 4

Daily Placepots RSS / / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

William Buick will be aboard Apothecary this evening.

William Buick will be aboard Apothecary this evening.

"Apothecary is arguably unlucky to not be unbeaten in her two starts..."

Wolverhampton's evening meeting is in the placepot line of fire on Wednesday for Timeform's Matt Gardner...

17:30 - A fairly open-looking first leg requires three selections to safeguard against an early bath, so Blown It, Mother Jones and Angelo Poliziano are all called into action. The first mentioned rarely runs a bad race at the track (only finished out of the first five once in 13 starts), and there is no reason to suspect he won't be in the mix once more, whilst Mother Jones is a free-going sort who looks well worth the drop back to five furlongs. Angelo Poliziano has been operating below his best of late but, after three starts in claimers, he returns to a handicap off a decent enough mark and is well drawn in stall two.

18:00 - Poetic Princess demonstrated enough ability when third on debut at Kempton last weekend, just losing second on the line, to think that she can win a race, so has to be included. Windsor Rose is a half-sister to last year's juvenile six-furlong winner Pendle Lady, giving hope of a decent showing on paper, and she could well be up to filling either the second or third spot given that three places are currently on offer.

18:30 - A number of the runners in the third have doubts surrounding them, including likely popular trio Maid of Meft, The Blue Dog and Mahfal, leaving Port Hill to go in as our first banker. The five-year-old has won just the once in 22 starts, but he is back down to the sort of mark that he ought to be very competitive off and he has run well at the course a number of times. His latest effort can be excused, having been forced to race wide, and it would not be a surprise to see him bounce back breaking from stall one.

19:00 - Banker number two is the John Gosden-trained Apothecary, who is arguably unlucky to not be unbeaten in her two starts. She made a winning debut at Lingfield in December, having three next-time-out winners in-behind, and was not granted a clear run over course and distance last month, finishing well to be denied a short-head by Availed Speaker. Spirit of the Law will prove the stiffest opposition, but it is hard to see Apothecary failing to make the places.

19:30 - Douze Points is the most likely winner of the fifth leg if in the same form as last time, but it could pay to side with the consistent Mataajir and course specialist Justcallmehandsome. The former was a good runner-up to the in-form Caledonia Prince on his latest start, and is very likely to be in the mix once more, whilst Justcallmehandsome gained his eleventh career win at the venue in December and, although he has mostly been out of form since, he was better than the bare result last time (forced wide) and may well bounce back.

20:00 - Benzanno sets the standard in the final leg, having twice been placed in his five starts, but Dutch Diamond does not have much to find with that rival as it stands, and she looks open to further improvement after finishing third on her all-weather debut at Kempton last month. Soldier Spy is a half-brother to two-year-old seven furlong winner Wotsthehurry and, in similar style to Windsor Rose in the second race, could well be up to grabbing a place on his debut.

Selections:

17:30 - 7, 8, 10
18:00 - 2, 6
18:30 - 7
19:00 - 1
19:30 - 2, 5
20:00 - 6, 8
= 24 lines

..........
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With four-runner races at both Fontwell and Southwell this afternoon, Timeform's Adam Brookes turns to Sedgefield for today's placepot attempt......

There are successive two-year-old races to negotiate at Redcar, so it's the better-known quantities at Kelso for today's placepot......

With yesterday's placepot dividend at Doncaster paying £3,911.60 to a £1 stake, Timeform's Adam Brookes attempts to crack a devilishly tricky card at Town Moor this afternoon......


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