The Punter's In-Play Blog: Europeans lead 8-6 at the Seve Trophy

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Europa League Odds: Betfair market keen on Tottenham's trophy chances

"Betfair punters are confident in Spurs’ ability to negotiate the San Siro test that awaits and make the north London club 4.57/2 to lift the trophy."

Spurs are in fine form under AVB and they head the Europa League winner market on Betfair ahead of this week's fixtures...

Tottenham are the Europa League favourites ahead of the second leg, last-16 fixtures this week. 

Holding a 3-0 lead from last Thursday's game at White Hart Lane, punters are confident in Spurs' ability to negotiate the San Siro test that awaits and make the north London club 4.57/2 to lift the trophy. Spurs manager Andre Villas-Boas knows what it takes to win the tournament of course, having led Porto to the 2011 final where they beat Braga. Inter, once backed at 9.08/1, are out to 80.079/1 to win the tournament, 

Chelsea were beaten 1-0 at Steaua Buchares last week, but the Betfair market doesn't expect the Blues to encounter any trouble in the second leg. Rafa Benitez's side are the 6.611/2 second favourites to win the Amsterdam final. 

Newcastle pulled off a decent 0-0 draw to deny Anzhi an advantage from the first leg of their tie in Moscow but are unfancied in the market. Alan Pardew's side can be backed at 20.019/1 to win the Europa League while the mega money Russian opponents trade at 11.010/1.

Benfica are third favourites at 6.86/1 but go to Bordeaux with a slim 1-0 advantage after the first leg at the Estádio da Luz. The market doesn't hold much hope for the French side, who are trading at 55.054/1. 

Other likely contenders include Lazio, at 11.010/1, and Rubin Kazan (16.5n/a). 

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Epsom Derby 2012 News: RP Trophy hero Camelot heads entry of 143

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The unbeaten Camelot

"Last season's Racing Post Trophy, rated 117P by Timeform, winner is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien..."

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2.

Last season's Racing Post Trophy winner (Timeform rated 117P), is one of 25 possible contenders for Aidan O'Brien, who can also call upon Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Wrote (118p) and Beresford Stakes scorer David Livingston (115).

John Oxx, like O'Brien twice successful in the Derby, has Born To Sea (108p) among his five entries.

The Invincible Spirit colt, runner-up in the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown on his final juvenile start, is a half-brother to two Derby heroes in Galileo and Oxx's Sea The Stars.

Sir Henry Cecil's six contenders include Noble Mission (80p), second on his only start to date at Yarmouth and full brother to the stable's world champion Frankel.

Marcus Tregoning, meanwhile, is dreaming of Cavaleiro (98), a son of his 2006 Derby winner Sir Percy, emulating his sire.

The Lambourn trainer has high hopes after Cavaleiro ended a busy two-year-old campaign with victory in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Conditions Stakes in September.

The Newbury contest has yielded numerous clues for the Derby over the years, with Henbit and Shergar having won both races, while Shahrastani and Authorized were both placed en route to Classic glory at Epsom.

Tregoning said: "We have obviously got quite a way to go with Cavaleiro before the Derby but we will run him in a trial and take it from there.

"He's had plenty of experience as a two-year-old and won his latest two starts, which was good. He's going to have to step up considerably on his next start and we are thinking about either the Lingfield Derby Trial, Chester or Sandown.

"I also haven't ruled out the possibility of running him in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, which might suit him.

"Physically, he has done very well over the winter and we are very pleased with him on that score. He's quite a laid-back horse, who keeps finding a bit, so we are hopeful that he can continue to progress.

"It's very exciting for Sir Percy. He did very well last year and the quality of the mares that he is receiving is getting better. It's early days for him as a stallion but we have been very pleased for him. We were very lucky to have him and he was a wonderful flag-bearer - hopefully his progeny can continue that success."

Camelot currently heads the betting for the Epsom Derby at [3.6] on June 2, while he also fills the same position for the 2000 Guineas on May 5 at [3.9].

...........
Click HERE to get the latest issue of the Timeform Black Book, featuring ratings for all 27 Cheltenham Festival races, plus those for Imperial Cup weekend!

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: The Vivendi Seve Trophy and the BMW Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 16 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Wilson – Joint-leader in Illinois

“Rose and Mark Wilson are now tied on -11, with Webb Simpson two shots further back. All three are now covered and I’m going to leave it at that for now.”

Great Britain & Ireland assume command in the Vivendi and there's an early start in the States today, as Steve looks to nurse his bets through to the final round....

10.50 - September 17, 2011

With the Vivendi Seve Trophy starting early this morning, there's fully 13 hours of live golf on Sky today, enough for even the most ardent fanatic surely.

Day one may have gone the way of the Brits at the Vivendi but day two belonged to the Continental Europeans and G B & Ireland now only lead 5 ½ - 4 ½, with this morning's matches ebbing and flowing nicely.

The Brits were on top for the first hour or so but the Europeans fought back well and the entire match was tantalisingly poised for a while but it looks as though the Brits are starting to take control again. They now lead in all four matches. I'm still happy to just dip in and out of the coverage and let the event roll along without any further interest. It's an entirely different matter in the States however...

I took the plunge and got Justin Rose onside last night and I'm glad I did but I also jumped the gun with Gary Woodland, who looks too far back now. I went out for the evening and I knew I wouldn't be able to even view the scores, so after Rose started ok I thought the safest thing to do was to get him onside. Woodland started really well but double-bogeyed as soon as I'd backed him!

Rose and Mark Wilson are now tied on -11, with Webb Simpson two shots further back. All three are now covered and I'm going to leave it at that for now. John Senden is only one behind Simpson and then there's a further gap of two to Bill Haas and Robert Allenby, tied for 5th.

Play starts early today, with the leaders going out at 3.15 UK time, presumably there's the threat of bad weather? It's live on Sky at 5.00, following the Vivendi.

I'd shown yesterday, that the furthest anyone has come back from after day one in the last 15 events at Cog Hill was six strokes. That was Robert Allenby, who happened to be five back at halfway in 2000, which, unsurprisingly, was the furthest back any winner's been at halfway. If you like looking for quirky omens when looking for a punt, Allenby was six back after day one on Thursday, and he's now five back, spooky. I wonder if he's aware of the coincidence.

I'm hoping for a stress-free afternoon and evening and I'm going to try not to dive in on anyone else.

10.20 - September 16, 2011

Thursday's are always a big day of the week for us golf bettors, hopes can be dashed in no time and the old adage of you can't win an event on a Thursday but you can lose one is so true. When I'm on a bad run I dread opening up the leaderboards and even if I'm on song, with my typically glass half-full persona, I still do so with plenty of trepidation but yesterday was a good Thursday, a very good Thursday.

At the Vivendi Seve Trophy, Paul McGinley's GB & Ireland almost totally dominated proceedings and they take a 4-1 lead into day two. Today's format is again Fourballs, with McGinley, very sensibly, deciding not to change any of his pairings. Having backed McGinley's Mob before the off, I'm more than happy with my lot right now and I'm not going to upset the applecart by getting involved in the individual matches, but if I was to do so, my idea of the best bets today would be Simon Dyson and Jamie Donaldson to beat Thomas Bjorn and Rafael Jacquelin and Miguel Angel Jimenez and Pablo Larrazabal to beat Darren Clarke and David Horsey. Both of those pairings look strong.

Over at the BMW Championship, Justin Rose has blazed out of the gates and shot a scintillating 63 to lead by two shots over my man, Webb Simpson and one of Paul Krishnamurty's two Find Me A 100 Winner selections, Mark Wilson. I'm chuffed with Webb's start but I really should have taken heed re Wilson, especially given another very shrewd judge in Ian at Sportsbetting.com also picked him out.

I've already been busy at the event and I've already backed three more players but I'm taking a chance and leaving out Rose...for now.

The series of numbers below represents the number of shots off the lead that the last 15 winners at Cog Hill were after round one - starting with last year's winner, Dustin Johnson, who was four back.

4, 2, 3, 3, 0, 3, -1, 2, 4, 6, -3, 2, 1, 1, 1.

In 2000, Robert Allenby came from six back to win but 14 of the last 15 winners have been within just four strokes of the day one lead. Cog Hill isn't a catch up course.

Given the above, I backed Wilson, who played the back-nine first, when he had two to play last night. As Harry The Hat points out here, the 8th and 9th holes are birdie holes. I got lucky; he scrambled a par at the 8th and drained a bomb for birdie on the 9th.

I also backed Camilo Villegas at the same point but he made two pars and finished up on just -3. And I also got KJ Choi onside once he'd finished his round on -4.

If the winner is going to be within four at this stage, then only Rose, Simpson, Wilson and Choi can win but it's never going to be that simple is it, and I'll take another look tomorrow.

Simpson drifted right out to [25.0] before the off for some reason and I took a chance and went in again. Once he started well I layed that wager back at [20.0] and then again at [5.7] and that gave me the funds to almost finance yesterday's trades, so it's been a great start.

I'm off out tonight, so I'm not going to be able to trade later but with Rose teeing off at 17.37, I should get a chance to monitor him early on. I haven't got the Englishman onside just yet but I don't want to jump in. It's a risky strategy, but hopefully he'll struggle a bit today. It wouldn't be a surprise if he did, it's never easy to follow-up a low one.

Vivendi Seve Trophy pre-event bet

G B & Ireland @ [2.2]

BMW Championship pre-event bets

Webb Simpson @ [23.0] & again @ [25.0]
Jerry Kelly @ [160.0]

In-running plays

Camilo Villegas @ [25.0]
Mark Wilson @ an average of [20.0]
KJ Choi @ an average of [19.0]
Webb Simpson layed back @ [20.0] and [5.7]
Justin Rose @ [5.3]
Gary Woodland @ [20.0]

GB & Ireland look to make it six in-a-row and Webb has designs on back-to-back wins in the States. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's golf action here......

Dutch Master Dyson wins KLM Open number three but what have we learnt for next year and who needs to be followed or avoided in the weeks ahead?...

There's an early start in the morning, with play brought forward because of a bad weather forecast but who's going to win? Read the Punter's thoughts on the final round here......

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FA Cup Final Result: 23-1 City win first trophy of new era

FA Cup / Joe Dyer / 14 May 2011 / 1 Comments

City celebrate Toure's goal

"Toure's goal will have delighted punters who backed City at a high of [24.0] on Betfair's FA Cup winner market when they trailed Notts County with just 10 minutes remaining of their fourth round tie back on January 30."

Manchester City are FA Cup champions after a 1-0 defeat of Stoke as Sheikh Mansour's big spending bears fruit

Manchester City capped one of the finest weeks in the club's history with a 1-0 FA Cup Final win today.

Yaya Toure was the hero - as has been the case so many times this season - with the lone goal of the game, striking home in the area on 74 minutes.

That rewarded Betfair customers willing to take an In-Play high of [3.8] about a City win in 90 minutes.

And it will have delighted punters who backed City at a high of [24.0] on Betfair's FA Cup winner market when they trailed Notts County with just 10 minutes remaining of their fourth round tie back on January 30.

In an attritional game it was a scrappy goal that split the two clubs, Toure seizing on a spot of penalty area ping-pong to smash past Thomas Sorensen.

Earlier this week City beat Spurs 1-0 to seal their participation in the Champions League (qualifying stages at least) next season.

Mike Norman isn't expecting this year's FA Cup final to be a thrilling encounter, so with few goals expected backing the underdogs could be the way to profit....

A physical game is definitely on the cards in this Wembley showpiece says Michael Cox, and that could result in the game being a stop-start affair with few goals....

He's the form striker going into the FA Cup final and one of the players Stoke will be relying on if they're going to win this year. We went to meet the Trinidad & Tobago striker ahead of Saturday's showdown...

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Sky Dogs: Make Minnies your TV Trophy girl

Sky Previews / Darrell Williams / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

"With Minnies Penske the only middle runner up against four railers, Tony Collett’s bitch is taken to use the draw to her advantage and add her name alongside Midway Skipper, who became a rare dual winner of the contest twelve months ago"

Minnies Penske can claim TV Trophy glory at Sittingbourne on Wednesday evening - live on Sky Sports - and in doing so add her name to one of the sport's most prestigious Roll of Honour says Darrell Williams.

While nowadays courtesy of Sky Sports, greyhound racing is well served in terms of televised coverage, in years gone by the Television Trophy, covered by the BBC's Sportsnight, was an all too rare chance for the hounds to hit the small screen. Its marathon status and ever rotating host venue add further credence to what has become a truly annual highlight.

Until the unfortunate withdrawal of 2010 finalist Ministry Magpie on Tuesday, picking the winner looked almost no easier than before the three heats were staged eleven days ago. However, with Minnies Penske the only middle runner up against four railers, Tony Collett's bitch is taken to use the draw to her advantage and add her name alongside Midway Skipper, who became a rare dual winner of the contest twelve months ago.

If she is to win, Minnies Penske will need to reverse heat form with Knockies Hannah, who proved a tough nut to crack, and in my view rates the biggest danger. John Mullins' bitch found plenty on that occasion, but whether she will enjoy such a clear run remains to be seen with her initial move likely to be away from the rails. With quick-starting pair Killishin Masai and Slick Sapphire also drawn the wrong way round and Aero Gaga also looking for the rails from trap four, it's hard not to imagine early trouble in running, despite the fact the race is being contested over almost 900m!

Despite winning form over 905m at Nottingham, I wasn't convinced Slick Sapphire saw out the TV Trophy trip that well in the heats, and will need everything to go right for her to win, while Killishin Masai and Aero Gaga ultimately have a fair bit to find on the clock.

All of which suggests the Knockies Hannah/Minnies Penske heat may prove the one to concentrate on, and while the former might be worth a small saver, Minnies Penske, whose wide tactics may prove to her advantage, can reverse form to claim the big prize.

Sittingbourne should be proud of its supporting card, where Irish Derby favourite Droopys Greg (21:25) should prove the 'dot' for those not fussed about the price.

However it's the match up of Blonde Snapper and Westmead Maldini (20:50) which could prove the most exciting, with Mark Wallis' first-named having lost little in defeat when just going down to Bandicoot Tipoki in one of the buckles of the year so far on Trainers Championship night at Wimbledon. Given that was his first race since last summer, he should have enough improvement to beat 'Maldini', despite the latter's excellent win over the CD last week and a forecast on the pair rates a must.

The hurdles race (20:35) looks an absolute cracker and it's not easy to choose between Irish National winner Junior Mac and English National third Sizzlers Spirit. Both have useful form over the 480m trip - the latter holding the track-record - and by virtue of a more favourable draw, Norah McEllistrim's runner is given the verdict to make it five wins in his last six outings.

Big Flop showed excellent early speed in his TV Trophy heat, and was noted renewing his challenge after trouble at the second bend, all of which suggests he can take the beating in the Invitation Marathon (20:15) - in essence a TV Trophy consolation race, where he renews rivalry with three rivals from that race.

Mountjoy Moon, after a confidence boosting win at Hall Green in front of Sky cameras a fortnight ago, can deny improving Droopys Yoga, who looks well drawn in trap one, to claim the Puppy race (19:40).

Selections (in order of preference)
Big Flop 20:15
Mountjoy Moon 20:00
Minnies Penske 21:45
Blonde Snapper 20:50
Sizzlers Spirit 20:35

Fancy Socks could hardly have taken to Peterborough any better after breaking the track-record last weekend and despite an outside draw is hard to oppose in the Puppy Derby final - live on Sky Sports - says Darrell Williams....

The Betfair Blue Riband is live on Sky Sports tonight, so we have top tipster Darrell Williams - who picked four winners from six bets in his last column - on the case and he cannot resist outsider Springwell Hot...

Charlie Lister can claim a sixth Scottish Derby success with Taylors Cruise taken to thwart a strong Irish challenge in the Shawfield staged final live on Sky Sports tonight says Darrell Williams....

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Handicappers' Corner: Recession Proof plunders Trophy at Newbury

Handicappers' Corner / Gregg Taylor / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Recession Proof is flanked by Bothy and Notus de La Tour as he takes the last en route to victory in the totesport Trophy

"He [Noland] was favoured by the weights and had the run of things to an extent, however, and is likely to have his work cut out if heading next to the Ryanair at the Festival"

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the highlights from Newbury's rescheduled totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury on Friday, as well as looking back on Saturday's Ascot Chase.

The postponement of the previous Saturday's card arguably hit the totesport Trophy more than the other races on the day, with numbers reduced and the fall in prizemoney meaning its long-held title as Britain's most valuable handicap hurdle didn't apply. In a thrilling finish to the contest, however, Recession Proof (h141) took his record over hurdles to three from four in little under four months and his form up a notch in the process as he defeated Bothy (h140) a short head. He has been rated as value for closer to a length victory after almost throwing the race away by wavering on the run-in, having moved alongside going best of the first three by some way.

The runner-up matched the form of his second to Menorah in the Greatwood from a 9 lb higher mark, having also raced to the fore throughout, whilst the front-running Notus de La Tour (143) improved a little on the form of last season's Fred Winter second as he finished one and a quarter lengths back in third.

Soldatino (h152p) remains a potentially high-class hurdler for all he's come up short in two handicaps since finally making it back, inconvenienced here by a baulk turning in and early mistakes that saw him drop towards the rear. Favourite Walkon (h153) also met some trouble in running but moreover left the impression that his hard-fought second at Ascot the previous month had left its mark.

Noland (c150+) had proved most disappointing in a handicap at Cheltenham on Cotswold Chase day but, re-equipped with a tongue strap, returned to a level of form much more in keeping with his high-class best when landing the Aon Chase. He was favoured by the weights and had the run of things to an extent, however, and is likely to have his work cut out if heading next to the Ryanair at the Festival.

His stable-companion What A Friend (c160) was conceding 10 lb to both him and the third and ran right up to his best in going down by a head. Yet, he again tended to race lazily and looked most awkward under pressure. He holds entries in the Gold Cup and the Grand National, though a repeat victory in the Bowl at Aintree might be a more achievable target. Fair Along (c148) also ran right up to the pick of his form over fences on his first outing in this sphere since 2007/8. His jumping was hesitant at times though he typically stuck on gamely in the straight.

The Game Spirit Chase half an hour later lacked a serious Champion Chase contender for once and it's probably best to take a cautious view of the form, with few giving their running and the proximity of Oiseau de Nuit in third supporting such a judgement. However, French Opera (c161) put his disappointing reappearance behind him to return to his best with a six-length beating of a slightly below-par Tchico Polos (c156). He may well go up in the weights for this, which would make his task harder if tackling the Grand Annual, whilst he's still got something to find with the principles in the Champion Chase.

French Opera's trainer Nicky Henderson was also in big race-winning form the following day courtesy of Riverside Theatre (c167) in the Ascot Chase. The seven-year-old matched the form of his King George second and confirmed himself a top-class chaser with an authoritative success, travelling well for most of the way and quickening on two out to beat a back-to-form Gauvain (c158) by ten lengths. He was short of experience when fifth in the Arkle on his only previous visit to Cheltenham and will hold strong claims if returning there for the Ryanair next month.

The runner-up returned to something like the level of form that had seen him win a valuable minor event at Cheltenham in November, up with the pace for much of the way and beating the remainder convincingly. Big Fella Thanks (c151) has the Grand National as his longer-term target and shaped well with that in mind in finishing fourth, having not been not knocked about by Dominic Elsworth after a bad mistake three out. Tartak (c160) was seeking a hat-trick following wins in the Peterborough Chase and a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham, but he was let down by his jumping, too.

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the highlights from Newbury's rescheduled totesport Trophy meeting at Newbury on Friday, as well as looking back on Saturday's Ascot Chase....

Unbeaten mare Black Caviar stretched her winning run to nine races in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday and Timeform have awarded her a rating of 131+ for that performance, which sees her ranked the leading sprinter in the world....

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......

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Timeform Daily: Totesport Trophy, Saturday, Newbury 15:35

Race of the Day / Timeform / 11 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Soldatino: Can the Triumph winner add another valuable prize to his portfolio?

"French import Solix was heavily backed ante-post, but a mark of 152 surely leaves him up against it and stablemate Soldatino makes greater appeal after a promising first run of the season at Ascot."

Timeform go through the field for the season's most valuable handicap hurdle...

Solix boasts smart form in France for Guy Cherel, landing a 19f Grade 3 at Auteuil in October. He ran creditably in a Grade 1 next time and has been the subject of strong support for this, but seemingly has plenty on at the weights.

Salden Licht took very well to hurdling last season. He has since proved himself better than ever on the Flat, and continued his progress in this sphere with an authoritative win at Exeter last month. There is plenty more to come from him yet.

Ronaldo des Mottes's only two flops have been at Cheltenham, and there was nothing wrong with his effort in this race last year when finding only Get Me Out of Here too good. A 10-month absence is no real concern but he is 9 lb higher this time.

Get Me Out of Here made tremendous progress last season, completing a 5-timer in this race prior to finding only Menorah too good in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He has made a low-key start to this campaign though, and the assessor is not relenting.

Nearby was one of the most progressive handicap hurdlers of last year, completing a quick-fire hat-trick in the autumn. He is better than his run in a Grade 1 over C&D last time suggests, but has probably done his winning for now.

Walkon lost just twice during a fine 2008/9 campaign, winning a Grade 1 at Aintree on his final start. He suffered a tendon injury after, but all his ability remains intact judged on his first run back at Ascot and he looks well treated.

Soldatino burst onto the scene in no uncertain manner last season, completing a hat-trick in the Triumph at the Festival. He shaped much better than the bare result behind Walkon on his return (weak in betting) and will be spot on now.

Eradticate is very useful on the Flat and over hurdles, winning the valuable Swinton Hurdle at Haydock in May. Hen had o real excuses off this mark at Cheltenham last month though, and his trainer saddles more interesting runners.

Notus de la Tour is an Ex-French gelding whose second in last season's Fred Winter turned out to be strong form. He shaped encouragingly at Ascot behind a couple of these on reappearance last month, and the return to is 2m no bad thing.

The Betchworth Kid is just as good over hurdles as on the Flat, running his best race so far over timber when fourth to Tocca Ferro in the Gerry Feilden over C&D in November. He was let down by his jumping last time though, and should be suited by further.

Final Approach showed no signs of inexperience when landing a valuable 2m handicap at Leopardstown on just his fourth start over hurdles. He is in excellent hands and has more improvement to come, so is not one to dismiss lightly.

Bothy is useful on the Flat and took well to hurdling last season, winning three times. He made further progress when runner-up to Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle, and his chance would be enhanced by rain.

Palomar is a free-going sort who has got his act together since joining his current yard, winning on the Flat, in a Market Rasen handicap and a jumpers' bumper. He was a really good third at Kempton last time, but is still higher in weights here.

Zanir won at Leicester in 2009/10 and has usually run creditably since, including when fourth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, but is no battler and this is ultra competitive.

Recession Proof is useful on the Flat and is already of similar merit over hurdles after just three runs, winning twice. He was also successful also in a jumpers' bumper when last seen in December, but this a totally different test.

Tiger O'Toole produced easily a career-best when beating Walkon (as well as a handful of others in this race) at Ascot last month. Things rather fell apart around him there though and a few can be expected to reverse the form.

Tarkari won three times for Willie Mullins in 2009/10, and has been a rare improver for leaving his stable, running as well as could be expected in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last week. He is not necessarily handicapped out of things.

Sweet My Lord boasts a similar profile to stablemate Final Approach in that he's still lightly raced over hurdles, successful on two of three completed starts. There must be a good chance there's more to come in handicaps.

Washington Irving is a one-time smart Flat performer who shaped better than the result in a 2½m Aintree handicap on his reappearance in November, when not given hard time. This an altogether more demanding task, however.

Iolith is an ex-German gelding who ran to a useful level on the Flat, winning three times. He has been suited by a test of speed when winning twice in novice hurdles, and seems sure to leave that bare form behind in handicaps.

Drill Sergeant is useful on the Flat (stays 2m) and has won two of his five starts over hurdles, despite signs of temperament. He shaped better than the bare result in a good handicap last time, and drops back in trip.

Rebel Dancer was a Flat winner in France and his career is now taking off over hurdles, winning on debut for his current yard at Huntingdon in August. He was an excellent second over C&D in November, and is just 2 lb higher this time.

Sircozy made a winning start to his hurdling career and has showed better form in defeat since, but was let down by jumping in ordinary handicap last month, and it's hard to see him taking a hand from out the weights.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Soldatino
2. Walkon
3. Salden Licht

Timeform View: French import Solix was heavily backed ante-post, but a mark of 152 surely leaves him up against it and stablemate Soldatino makes greater appeal after a promising first run of the season at Ascot. The Alan King-pair Walkon and Salden Licht are other notable contenders, with Bothy looking the pick of those at longer odds, especially if conditions deteriorate.

Want to get the Timeform Jury's views on all of Saturday's terrestrial TV races? Then call TV Focus - find out more by clicking HERE.

Timeform look ahead to the weekend's best racing......

Timeform go through the field for the season's most valuable handicap hurdle......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton...

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Totesport Trophy Betting: Soldatino to triumph for in-form Henderson

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Triumph hurdle winner Soldatino looks the pick of Nicky Henderson's trio in this Saturday's totesport Trophy

"Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year’s Day".

Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year...

Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in the race and has been responsible for four of the last eleven winners, most recently when Geos took the 2004 renewal. Henderson's gung-ho approach towards the contest is nothing new and the Seven Barrows trainer has three entries at this stage.

The ex-French gelding Solix is the most prominent in the market of Henderson's trio, despite being a tricky one to assess. Capable of smart form over hurdles for Guy Cherel in France, Solix beat Bel la Vie in a Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil prior to finishing a creditable fourth behind that rival in a Grade 1 contest there in November. He's undoubtedly an interesting recruit for connections, but he hardly looks thrown in from a mark of 152 and better value looks to be had elsewhere.

The most interesting of Henderson's entries, from a betting point of view, anyway, is last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino. Unbeaten on all three starts as a juvenile, he made an eye-catching return from ten months off when sixth to Tiger O'Toole at Ascot last month, travelling powerfully until the lack of a recent outing told. Soldatino remains open to improvement and appeals as the one most likely to add to his trainer's excellent record here.

Alan King is a trainer very much back on the up and also looks set to go into the race mob-handed, with Walkon, Iolith, Salden Licht and The Betchworth Kid all amongst the five-day entries.

Walkon was a very smart juvenile in 2008/9, runner-up to Zaynar in the Triumph before winning a Grade 1 Hurdle at Aintree, and showed all that old ability was intact when runner-up in that race won by Tiger O'Toole at Ascot. However, he's always shaped as if he'd be ideally suited by two and a half miles, and he may well prove vulnerable to speedier types back at the minimum trip.

Salden Licht is the least exposed of King's quartet and his profile is not all that dissimilar to Manyriverstocross, who finished third in the corresponding event for the same yard last season. Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year's Day, always travelling powerfully and just nudged out to beat Sir Kezbaah by a length and a half. That form has held up well subsequently and Salden Licht makes more appeal than his shorter-priced stablemate.

Get Me Out of Here took his unbeaten run over hurdles to five when beating Ronaldo des Mottes in the corresponding event last term and met with defeat for the first time when beaten narrowly by Menorah in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham next time. Jonjo O'Neill's representative hasn't been in quite the same form on either start this season, however, pulling too hard when sixth to that same rival in the Greatwood last time, and others look more solid betting propositions for the time being.

Bothy progressed well in novice company last term, winning his first three starts over hurdles, and he took a big step forward on his return when just touched off by Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (receiving 24 lb). Bothy's latest run in a bumper is probably best ignored, and he's one of the likelier candidates, especially if the ground came up testing.

John Quinn's Recession Proof won two of his three starts in novice company, finding only the very useful Dunraven Strom too strong at Ascot. He also created a good impression when successful in a jumpers' bumper at Southwell in late-December, but it's a big ask to expect him to make an impact at this level from an opening mark of 134.

Final Approach led home a 1-2 for Willie Mullins in this year's renewal of the valuable MCR Hurdle (formerly the Pierse) at Leopardstown. Owned by the managing director of the race sponsor, the well-backed Final Approach quickened up smartly to beat Call the Police by two lengths. Although still unexposed over timber, Final Approach will need to improve plenty if he's to defy a mark 16 lb higher.

Sweet My Lord is another lightly-raced raced performer representing the Mullins yard, and after just three completed outings (fell on two of first three outings) he surely remains open to further improvement. His jumping shouldn't be a problem - if anything it looked an asset when winning easily at Limerick last time - and he certainly deserves to take his chance at this level.

Recommendations

Back Soldatino @ [13.0] and Salden Licht @ [10.0] to win the totesport Trophy at Newbury.

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