Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Totesport Trophy Betting: Soldatino to triumph for in-form Henderson

Tipping RSS / Stuart Jones / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Triumph hurdle winner Soldatino looks the pick of Nicky Henderson's trio in this Saturday's totesport Trophy

Triumph hurdle winner Soldatino looks the pick of Nicky Henderson's trio in this Saturday's totesport Trophy

"Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year’s Day".

Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year...

Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in the race and has been responsible for four of the last eleven winners, most recently when Geos took the 2004 renewal. Henderson's gung-ho approach towards the contest is nothing new and the Seven Barrows trainer has three entries at this stage.

The ex-French gelding Solix is the most prominent in the market of Henderson's trio, despite being a tricky one to assess. Capable of smart form over hurdles for Guy Cherel in France, Solix beat Bel la Vie in a Grade 3 hurdle at Auteuil prior to finishing a creditable fourth behind that rival in a Grade 1 contest there in November. He's undoubtedly an interesting recruit for connections, but he hardly looks thrown in from a mark of 152 and better value looks to be had elsewhere.

The most interesting of Henderson's entries, from a betting point of view, anyway, is last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Soldatino. Unbeaten on all three starts as a juvenile, he made an eye-catching return from ten months off when sixth to Tiger O'Toole at Ascot last month, travelling powerfully until the lack of a recent outing told. Soldatino remains open to improvement and appeals as the one most likely to add to his trainer's excellent record here.

Alan King is a trainer very much back on the up and also looks set to go into the race mob-handed, with Walkon, Iolith, Salden Licht and The Betchworth Kid all amongst the five-day entries.

Walkon was a very smart juvenile in 2008/9, runner-up to Zaynar in the Triumph before winning a Grade 1 Hurdle at Aintree, and showed all that old ability was intact when runner-up in that race won by Tiger O'Toole at Ascot. However, he's always shaped as if he'd be ideally suited by two and a half miles, and he may well prove vulnerable to speedier types back at the minimum trip.

Salden Licht is the least exposed of King's quartet and his profile is not all that dissimilar to Manyriverstocross, who finished third in the corresponding event for the same yard last season. Salden Licht was better than ever on the Flat during the autumn and mirrored that progress when returned to hurdles at Exeter on New Year's Day, always travelling powerfully and just nudged out to beat Sir Kezbaah by a length and a half. That form has held up well subsequently and Salden Licht makes more appeal than his shorter-priced stablemate.

Get Me Out of Here took his unbeaten run over hurdles to five when beating Ronaldo des Mottes in the corresponding event last term and met with defeat for the first time when beaten narrowly by Menorah in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham next time. Jonjo O'Neill's representative hasn't been in quite the same form on either start this season, however, pulling too hard when sixth to that same rival in the Greatwood last time, and others look more solid betting propositions for the time being.

Bothy progressed well in novice company last term, winning his first three starts over hurdles, and he took a big step forward on his return when just touched off by Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham (receiving 24 lb). Bothy's latest run in a bumper is probably best ignored, and he's one of the likelier candidates, especially if the ground came up testing.

John Quinn's Recession Proof won two of his three starts in novice company, finding only the very useful Dunraven Strom too strong at Ascot. He also created a good impression when successful in a jumpers' bumper at Southwell in late-December, but it's a big ask to expect him to make an impact at this level from an opening mark of 134.

Final Approach led home a 1-2 for Willie Mullins in this year's renewal of the valuable MCR Hurdle (formerly the Pierse) at Leopardstown. Owned by the managing director of the race sponsor, the well-backed Final Approach quickened up smartly to beat Call the Police by two lengths. Although still unexposed over timber, Final Approach will need to improve plenty if he's to defy a mark 16 lb higher.

Sweet My Lord is another lightly-raced raced performer representing the Mullins yard, and after just three completed outings (fell on two of first three outings) he surely remains open to further improvement. His jumping shouldn't be a problem - if anything it looked an asset when winning easily at Limerick last time - and he certainly deserves to take his chance at this level.

Recommendations

Back Soldatino @ [13.0] and Salden Licht @ [10.0] to win the totesport Trophy at Newbury.

Just two favourites (the well-backed Essex in 2005 and Landing Light in 2001) have obliged in the last ten renewals of the totesport Trophy, perhaps not unsurprisingly given the typically high quality field and competitive nature of what is the richest handicap hurdle of the season, but Timeform's Stuart Jones reckons it's not worth looking far beyond the market leaders this year......

Timeform handicapper Gregg Taylor analyses the performances of three winners from Saturday who are all set to be seen next on the opening day of the Festival......

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell......


Play Casino & Poker here

No comments:

Post a Comment