Race of the Day 
/
Timeform / 14 April 2012 /
Leave a Comment 
Who will win the Grand National?
"Cappa Bleu's strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and he is very much one for the shortlist..."
Timeform run the rule over the runners for the most famous race in the world, the Grand National at Aintree...
Synchronised (Jonjo O'Neill/Tony McCoy) has history against him as no Gold Cup winner has followed up at Aintree since 1934, but it should be noted that he's one of the better-handicapped runners in the field, whilst he's also clearly not dependent on the mud to show his best nowadays. That said, his idiosyncratic jumping technique isn't ideal for Aintree and could see him getting further back than ideal.
Ballabriggs (Donald McCain/Jason Maguire) is another runner hoping to overcome bleak historical trends, as there have been only two back-to-back Grand National winners in the last 142 years. In truth, a 10 lb higher mark than when winning the 2011 renewal looks the biggest obstacle to overcome but, given how well he took to the course then, it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him make another bold bid.
Weird Al (Donald McCain/Timmy Murphy) was better than ever upon joining this yard in the autumn, winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and finishing a fine third behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. His training problems clearly aren't a thing of the past, however, and it's difficult to fancy himfollowing a miserable effort in the Gold Cup last time (reportedly broke a blood vessel).
Neptune Collonges (Paul Nicholls/Daryl Jacob) is still capable of high-class formdespite his advancing years, good placed efforts under big weights at Sandown and Haydock (runner-up to Giles Cross) last two starts. Not handicapped out of things and has a racing style that could be well suited to this course.
Calgary Bay (Henrietta Knight/Dominic Elsworth) got no further than the fourth in 2011 National, but is usually a very safe conveyance. Doubtful stayer over 4½m, though, whilst he's also plenty high enough in the weights following back-to-back wins at Cheltenham and Doncaster.
Alfa Beat (John Joseph Hanlon/Davy Russell) won second successive Kerry National back in the autumn, but seems too high in the weights now as a result, whilst he didn't take to these fences when a faller in last year's Topham.
Planet of Sound (Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson) handles top of the ground well and has returned with typically honest placed efforts in the Hennessy at Newbury and Racing Plus Chase at Kempton this term. Hasn't got anything in hand of the handicapper, though, and stamina also to prove over this marathon trip.
Black Apalachi (Dessie Hughes/Denis O'Regan) was a runaway winner of 2008 Becher Chase, who also cut a very bold sight over these fences when runner-up to Don't Push It off this mark in 2010 National. Now thirteen, but signs of retaining much of that ability when a keeping-on second to Prince de Beauchene at Fairyhouse on recent comeback and shouldn't be written off, particularly as Denis O'Regan has opted to renew his association with him instead of riding Giles Cross.
Deep Purple (Evan Williams/Jamie Moore) coped surprisingly well with longer trip when winning London National at Sandown in December, but has shaped as if amiss on most other starts in recent seasons.
Junior (David Pipe/Tom Scudamore) has been trained with this race inmind ever since running away with last season's KimMuir at Cheltenham.Warmed up with a narrow second to Ikorodu Road (winner since) at Doncaster last time and clearly warrants respect, though it's possible he neither travels nor jumps quite fluently enough for this unique test.
Chicago Grey (Gordon Elliott/Paul Carberry) is a thorough stayer who won 2011 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and has been campaigned with this race in mind since, with the booking of Paul Carberry clearly an asset over these fences. Exaggeratedwaiting tactics adopted on himearlier in the season not certain to suit here, though.
Tatanen (Richard Rowe/Andrew Thornton) won valuable 21f handicap for second successive year at Ascot in January, but he is high in the weights as a result and has stamina to prove for this kind of test.
Seabass (Ted Walsh/Katie Walsh) represents the same stable as 2000 National winner Papillon, and heads to Aintree on an upward curve too, having won each of his last six starts, the latest one coming in a Grade 2 event over 2m. This marathon trip a completely unknown quantity with him, though.
Shakalakaboomboom (Nicky Henderson/Barry Geraghty) took well to these fences when seventh in the 2011 Topham as a novice and has progressed nicely since then, winning twice prior to finishing a fine second to Calgary Bay at Doncaster in January. Now 5 lb higher in theweights and suitability for this extreme test not guaranteed.
West End Rocker (Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson) took a luckless exit in 2011 National, but coped fine with these fences when runawaywinner of Becher Chase under very testing conditions in December. Seems sure to stay, though 12 lb higher mark a major concern.
According To Pete (Malcolm Jefferson/Harry Haynes) has been in fine form of late, won valuable handicaps atWetherby and Haydock prior to finishing a good second in Kelso minor event last time (Ballabriggs back in fourth). Needs more improvement now, however.
On His Own (Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh) confirmed himself a much-improved performer for new stable (formerly with Howard Johnson) when running out a wide-margin winner of Thyestes Chase at Gowran in late-January. Much higher in weights now, however, whilst his jumping hasn't always looked the most assured.
Always Right (John Wade/James Reveley) is a sure-footed jumper who's capable of smart form on his day, including when winning at Kelso on his reappearance. Has undergone a breathing operation since flopping on both starts since, so could well get involved if that's done the trick.
Cappa Bleu (Evan Williams/Paul Moloney) is the 2009 Cheltenham Foxhunter winner who's done well since returning from a lengthy absence this winter, winning at Haydock prior to decent placed efforts at Chepstow (behind Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross) and Ascot (arguably should have won). His strong-travelling style should stand him in good stead at Aintree and very much one for the shortlist.
Rare Bob (Dessie Hughes/Bryan Cooper) doesn't seem quite the force of old this term, despite more encouraging efforts of late, whilst his remote fifth in the Becher Chase back in December suggests he'll have stamina limitations over this trip for all he took pretty well to the fences.
Organisedconfusion (Arthur Moore/Nina Carberry) proved a revelation when upped markedly in trip to win the 2011 Irish National (with Sunnyhillboy back in third). Has kept his powder dry back over shorter (including over hurdles) since then, and remains very much unexposed over marathon trips.
Treacle (Tom Taaffe/Andrew Lynch) is lightly raced, though better than ever this winter and looked well worth trying over this sort of trip when runner-up to Cross Appeal in valuable handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Even better formwhen staying-on third in Irish Hennessy there last time and potentially well treated on that effort.
The Midnight Club (Willie Mullins/Paul Townend) didn't take to the course so well as expected when favourite for the 2011 renewal (eventually finished sixth after being hampered four out) and simply hasn't looked at the top of his game this time around, so others preferred.
Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/Aidan Coleman) was the 100/1 winner of the 2009 renewal, but faller at the fifth last twelve months later and it increasingly looks as if he needs everything to fall his way nowadays, so a well-run National could see him getting further back than ideal.
Arbor Supreme (Jonjo O'Neill/Mark Walsh) was a smart chaser in his prime for Willie Mullins, but has promised little in two runs over hurdles for current yard. He has failed to complete in the last two renewals of this race, so others are readily preferred.
Sunnyhillboy (Jonjo O'Neill/Richie McLernon) showed plenty of stamina when third (after a troubled passage) in last year's Irish National and did so again to win the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month, rallying splendidly to beat Becauseicouldntsee. His jumping isn't the issue it once was and he cannot be ignored from a handicapping viewpoint.
Killyglen (Stuart Crawford/Robbie Power) was still close up when falling four out in last year's National but doesn't always see his races out thoroughly and that tempers enthusiasm here, despite a recent win at Down Royal.
Quiscover Fontaine (Willie Mullins/David Casey) does most of his racing over much shorter trips, though showed decent stamina reserves when fourth in last year's Irish National. Looks plenty high enough in the weights at present and his stable looks to have better options elsewhere.
Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/Brian O'Connell) was back to his best when winning at Galway in October (2¾m) but has not shown a lot since then, and has stamina to prove here (never raced over further than 3m).
Becauseicouldntsee (Noel Glynn/Davy Condon) is a giant gelding who ticks plenty of boxes for a race such as this, given he's an out-and-out stayer with good recent form to his name (runner-up to Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham last time). He does, however, have a few falls on his CV, including when crashing out at the second in the 2011 National.
State of Play (Evan Williams/Noel Fehily) is a likeable veteran who's made the frame in each of the last three Grand Nationals, his keeping-on fourth behind Ballabriggs last year coming after a twelve-month absence (which he's had again this time). Now twelve, and feeling is his chance has passed.
Swing Bill (David Pipe/Conor O'Farrell) was an honourable fifth in last year's Topham but didn't seem to enjoy the experience so much when tackling these fences for a second time back in December and relatively easy to oppose here.
Postmaster (Tim Vaughan/Dougie Costello) is a hold-up sort who can find little, but ended a long losing run at Bangor in August (25f) and also landed a 2½m hunter chase at Ludlow recently. He was a first fence faller in the Topham last year, has stamina to prove, and he doesn't look all that well treated at the weights.
Giles Cross (Victor Dartnall/Paddy Brennan) has proved admirably consistent in valuable long-distance handicap chases over the past fifteen months, finishing runner-up twice in the Welsh National as well as winning the Southern National at Fontwell and the Grand National Trial at Haydock this term. His front-running style often suits this race and definitely one to consider should the ground ride soft or heavy.
Midnight Haze (Kim Bailey/Sean Quinlan) is a sure-footed front runner who can boast a decent wins-to-runs ratio in recent seasons, but rather had his limitations exposed in the CheltenhamFestival cross-country chase last time and could also have stamina issues over this trip.
Vic Venturi (Dessie Hughes/Harry Skelton) has endured wretched luck in last two renewals of the Grand National (brought down early last time), but didn't look a natural over these fences even when winning the 2009 Becher and has something to prove after flopping in a hunter chase last time.
In Compliance (Dessie Hughes/Niall Madden) is a veteran who has some classy older form to his name, but finished well behind Killyglen at Down Royal last time and was soundly beaten in this race last year, so makes little appeal.
Viking Blond (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Brian Hughes) received a good ride when making all on chase debut at Chepstow (3m) in October. He showed similar form in his next two starts over that trip, but not in the same form the last twice and lack of experience is a concern.
Hello Bud (Nigel Twiston-Davies/Sam Twiston-Davies) was a game fifth in 2010 Grand National and won Becher back here later that year.Was running another big race prior to unseating at the Canal Turn in latest renewal of the Becher in December, but he's shaped as if old age is catching up with him on most other starts since then.
Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/Felix de Giles) was suited by the stamina test faced when winning over 3½m at Haydock in November. Not in same form since, however, and others look much likelier racing from 5 lb out of the weights.
Any Currency (Martin Keighley/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who hasn't seen much action since his last success in November 2009. Has not been at his best this season and makes little appeal from 6 lb out of the handicap.
Our Island (Tim Vaughan/RESERVE) is a point/hurdles winner who stuck to his task when second in a handicap at Haydock in December. Set stiff tasks when below form in cheekpieces on his last 3 starts, though, and 7 lb out of the weights here.
Abbeybraney (George Bewley/RESERVE) has only been seen 5 times since winning a novice for Howard Johnson in December 2009, recording his best effort of season when third in Kelso conditions event latest, but is 9 lb out of the weights here.
Smoking Aces (Tom Taaffe/RESERVE) is a thorough stayer who responded well to blinkers when winning at Fairyhouse (29f) in December. Not in quite the same form since, and is 9 lb out of the handicap with cheekpieces replacing the blinkers.
Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Cappa Bleu
2. Black Apalachi
3. Neptune Collonges
Timeform View: Trainer Evan Williams and owner William Rucker have been placed in the last three Nationals with State of Play, and their perseverance could be rewarded this year, not by that one but by Cappa Bleu, who has plenty about him to think he'll take to this course and is among the best handicapped in the field, too. Black Apalachi will be ignored by the trends followers given that he's now thirteen, but few are as effective around here as he looks overpriced. Other honourable mentions go to Sunnyhillboy, Neptune Collonges and Organisedconfusion.
...........
Get the Timeform Jury's verdict on today's Aintree BBC races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more about this successful tipping service.
Timeform run the rule over the 2m4f Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree on Friday afternoon......
Timeform take a look at a high-quality field for the Grade 1 Aintree Bowl on Thursday......
Timeform run the rule over the runners for the listed Further Flight Stakes, run over a mile and three quarters at Nottingham......
Amazon Watches Center
