WTA Indian Wells Betting: Kerber and Stosur likely to go the distance...

'Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight'

It's the last two Women's Quarter finals tonight; Kerber versus Stosur in what should be a tight affair and that's followed by two former champions facing off as Azarenka takes on Wozniacki.

First up we have German Angelique Kerber against Australian Sam Stosur. Kerber came into this tournament on the back of two first round losses in a row. This minor drop in form can however be put down to a back strain which came to light at the Australian Open when she was put to the sword by Ekatarina Makarova. To anybody who saw that match it was clear she was not fit but she appears to have got over this now, her three victories at Indian Wells so far show she's back to the level we all expect of her.

Stosur and Kerber have met twice before with Stosur winning each time. To Kerber's credit both matches have been competitive, and I see no reason why it won't be the same tonight. Kerber is an exciting player who is not afraid to go for her shots; she has a wicked forehand and is able to chase down a lot of balls. 

Stosur has spent more time on court this week, played more sets, and, whilst still winning, has had to come from behind a number of times. Given the head-to-head record Stosur usually would be favourite, but I think Kerber will take her the distance tonight. It's certainly worth a look at the Total Games Market for this one in what should be a highly entertaining match.

In the last Quarter Final match we see two players that have tasted success at Indian Wells before. It was exactly two years ago that Victoria Azarenka slumped to her fifth defeat in seven meetings with Caroline Wozniacki as the then world number one went on to take the Indian Wells title that year. 

How the tables have turned since then! Now, Azarenka has two Grand Slam titles under her belt and is arguably the most consistent player on the Tour. She boasts a perfect 17 match winning record this year and very much justifies her pre-match price of 1.261/4. 

Wozniacki on the other hand, troubled by a difficult relationship with her on-off coach and father Piotr, and burdened with the task of keeping a lid on media intrusion has seen her ranking slump outside the Top 10 for the first time in five years.

All that being said, it is Wozniacki who I like tonight. She made short work of Petrova in the previous round and in-form Russian Vesnina in the round before. Noted for her defence, Wozniacki has always possessed an uncanny ability to minimise mistakes. She hardly every serves a double-fault (something Azarenka cannot boast) and seldom hits the net. Moreover with Azarenka hampered by a troublesome ankle injury, this is a perfect opportunity for Wozniacki to re-start her 2013 campaign and redeem herself after an embarrassing loss to little known Qiang Wang two weeks ago.

Wozniacki was the darling of the WTA Tour and was world Number One long before Azarenka had even thought about winning a Grand Slam. She possesses too much ability for this to be an easy match for Azarenka and I think the +5.5 Games for Wozniacki tonight is the way to go.

Recommend Bets:
Back Caroline Wozniacki +5.5 Games vs Victoria Azarenka @ 1.768/11
Back Over 21.5 Games in Angelique Kerber vs Sam Stosur @ 1.814/5

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Timeform Daily: Long Distance Cup, Saturday, Ascot 13:45

"Opinion Poll firmly established as one of the top stayers around, splitting Fame And Glory and Colour Vision in 2011 renewal..."

It's probably not giving much away to say that Frankel and Excelebration are our selections in the Champion and QEII, so we instead look at the first race at Ascot on Champions Day, the Group 3 Long Distance Cup...

Aiken completed six-timer when making all in tactical Group 2 at Chantilly in June. Lost little in defeat in Hardwicke Stakes and Irish St Leger, but this no easier and stamina to prove. Ground fine.

Askar Tau is a quirky sort but smart on his day, as he showed when length second to Saddler's Rock in the Goodwood Cup in August. Even a repeat of that still leaves him short in this company.

Colour Vision was not seen to best effect when behind Opinion Poll in this last year, and reversed the form with that rival in the Ascot Gold Cup. Just respectable efforts in 3 outings since. Cheekpieces reached for.

Electrolyser had the run of things when winning listed event at Nottingham in April, and his limitations have been exposed every time he's tackled Group company, behind 3 of these in the Goodwood Cup.

Fame And Glory proved himself the best stayer around in 2011, culminating with a ready success in this contest. Unable to attain same heights this year after reappearance success, so must bounce back.

Ile De Re has been a real success story for this yard, landing ultra-competitive Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate earlier this year. Well worth try at this level, and firmly at home under these conditions.

Opinion Poll firmly established as one of the top stayers around, splitting Fame And Glory and Colour Vision in 2011 renewal. Runner-up behind latter rival in Ascot Gold Cup but goes well fresh and ground fine.

Rite of Passage is a smart hurdler whose finest hour came when landing the Gold Cup at the Royal meeting here in 2010. Has been restricted to just one outing since and questions to answer after such an absence.

Saddler's Rock has developed into a high-class stayer, landing Doncaster Cup last autumn and the Goodwood Cup in August. Right there with principals on best form, but disappointing last 3 outings.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Opinion Poll
2. Ile De Re
3. Fame And Glory

Timeform Verdict: With 2011 winner Fame And Glory not arriving here in the same form this time around, Opinion Poll makes plenty of appeal in his bid to go one better this year with soft ground no inconvenience. If conditions turn very testing, Ile de Re could exceed many peoples' expectations.

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Sunderland v Everton Bets: This could go the distance

FA Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tim'll fix it. Cahill loves playing Sunderland.

"Still, I can’t ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven’t found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at 2.5 is the bet."

These are two of the most evenly-matched teams in the country and splitting them isn't easy, so bet accordingly. But if it goes all the way to penalties, there's only one team to side with, says Jamie Pacheco.

Match Odds

There's not much to choose between these two whichever way you look at it. I'm not sure who I'd take between Martin O'Neill and David Moyes as a manager. They're tied on points in the league table; they have squads of similar strength; they both won at the weekend; and they drew 1-1 on both occasions they've played this season, the latest of which was at Goodison Park ten days ago. The same match that means we've got a replay here. Furthermore, Opta tell us that it's three draws from the last four between these two.

But a further stat from our number crunching-friends sticks out like a sore thumb. Everton have gone on an amazing run of 16 matches without tasting defeat against their north-eastern opponents. Even if we consider that O'Neill is probably a better manager than anyone else Sunderland had in charge during that time and that this probably a stronger XI than they've had throughout most of that period, that record against Tuesday night's opponents must be at the back of hosts' minds somewhere.

Moyes' decision to play a weakened side against Liverpool to spare his players for their big FA Cup tie four days later backfired in more ways than one. Not only did he lose that match convincingly but the same players who had been given the night off looked rusty rather than rested for the FA Cup game.

No repeat of that this time round. The Scot picked his best possible team for Saturday's trip to Swansea and his reward was a 2-0 win over a side who had won their last four league matches, which included the scalp of then league leaders Manchester City. I'd expect a very similar team to start again on Tuesday night, though Marouane Felliani might get the nod over Darren Gibson in the heart of midfield, just to add a little more bite.

Lee Cattermole is still suspended after his sending-off at home to Newcastle for showing a little too much bite and an equal amount of stupidity and lack of self-restraint. Whoever Moyes decides to play at right-back (either Tony Hibbert or Phil Neville) would be well-advised to drink a nice mug of camomile tea before they go to bed or take something else to help them sleep. The prospect of having to contain the impressive James McClean doesn't make for a restful night's sleep.

Still, I can't ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven't found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at [2.5] is the bet.

Method of Victory

With the draw such a strong runner in terms of the outcome after 90 minutes, it may pay to speculate as to what might happen if this game does go beyond 90 minutes. The team who is distinctly fitter or has superior options on the bench has the better chance of winning it.

But once again, we find it hard to split these two teams when it comes to that either, so I'm not sure we'd find a winner after even 120 minutes. Onto penalties we go and here it's Everton who are clearly the stronger of the two. In 2009 they knocked Manchester United out of the FA on penalties at Wembley and last year they knocked out Chelsea in the same competition at Stamford Bridge, again on penalties. Sunderland's memories of shoot-outs aren't so great. In 2009 they went out of the Carling Cup by this method against Aston Villa and in 2004 they fell at the final hurdle when up against Ian Dowie's Crystal Palace for the right to be promoted to the Premier League. Tim Howard's experience of handling the occasion may be the difference if this match does indeed go the distance. Everton are [14.0] to win on penalties.

First Goalscorer

Gone are the days when Tim Cahill seemed to score every other week with a trademark header after a late run into the box. His return of just one goal from almost 30 starts in the league is proof of that. But he certainly likes playing Sunderland and has scored three times against them in his last five matches, including the equaliser ten days ago in this same fixture. He'll be around [10.0] to open the scoring which is a far better price than we would have got a few years back and it's worth taking the chance he can come up with the goods when it most matters.

Best Bet

Lay Sunderland @ [2.5]

Recommended Bet

Back Everton to win on penalties in the Qualifying Method market

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ATP World Tour Finals Stats: Fish and Tsonga to go the distance

ATP Tour Finals Betting / Ben Caudell / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga pushed Federer all the way in his opening match

"The Frenchman has gone over the 23.5 total games mark sixteen times from his last twenty six matches indoors. Fish has exceeded this same total game line nineteen times from his last thirty."

Ben Caudell has identified two bets based on stats ahead of this afternoon's action at the O2 arena. Over to you. Ben...

4 Reasons to Back Federer -3.5 Games @ [2.0] (Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal - 20:00 Match)

•Roger Federer's last victory over the Spaniard came at this event a year ago in the final of the end of season finale at the O2. This will be only their fourth meeting indoors; with all the previous head-to-heads coming at the season finale (2006-07 and last year. Federer has won all of them.

•All three of Federer's indoor victories over Nadal have been won by more than 3.5 games (Shanghai 2006 6-4 7-5, Shanghai 2007 6-4 6-1, London 6-3 3-6 6-1)

•Federer has far superior career stats when it comes down to playing on indoor hard courts. The number four ranked player in the world has won seventeen matches in a row, 88% of all matches played on this surface compared with 69% for Nadal, 72% of service points won and 92% of service holds, compared with 66% and 83% respectively for Nadal.

•Since the World Tour Finals event in London 2009, Federer has recorded 25 wins out of a possible 29 by more than 3.5 games on indoor hard courts and is in much better shape than his opponent coming into this match holding a grander surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player, taking head-to-heads into account.)

4 Reasons to Back Over 23.5 Games @ [2.0] (Jo Wilfired Tsonga v Mardy Fish - 14:00 Match)

•Both players went over the 23.5 games line in their opening World Tour Finals matches. Mardy Fish lost to Rafael Nadal in a final set tie-break and Tsonga to Federer 6-4 in the third.

•Tsonga triumphed in a five set epic at this year's US Open in their only head-to-head match to date.

•The Frenchman has gone over the 23.5 total games mark sixteen times from his last twenty six matches indoors. Fish has exceeded this same total game line nineteen times from his last thirty.

•Eight tie breaks have taken place in Tsonga's last thirteen matches and seven from twelve matches for Mardy Fish.

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Darts World Matchplay 2011 Tips: Lewis and Wade to go the distance

Darts / Alex Lee / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

James Wade is set for a long night ahead of him against Adrian Lewis

"The only sure-fire bet in this fixture is a back of ‘overs’ in the total legs market. Wait until there’s sufficient liquidity and bet with confidence. This one will go the distance, mark my words."

Alex Lee looks back at last night's action and ahead to tonight's two semi-finals, where the very evenly matched pair of James Wade and Adrian Lewis resume hostilities in their ongoing rivalry.

Too much sports journalism is ruined by hyperbole these days, with writers getting all hot under the collar to misguidedly celebrate minor achievements. Two of last night's quarter-finals, however, were worthy of every superlative going. Andy Hamilton's turnaround against Simon Whitlock from 8-15 down to 17-15 was, in the words of Sid Waddell, the biggest comeback since Lazarus, while Phil Taylor's unbelievable dismantling of Newton from 1-4 down to 16-5, was borderline miraculous.

Tonight's semis see Taylor take on Hamilton and Adrian Lewis face James Wade in gruelling best-of-33 legs matches. While Hamilton has played the board like a Stradivarius in his relentless crushing of non-English opposition, he'll meet his match in fellow 'Stokie' The Power.

The romantics willing to part with their cash to back The Hammer are doing so because of the attractive odds and his last three enthralling performances, rather than seeing the big picture - which comes in the shape of a billboard-sized animated 3D movie poster of Phil Taylor. By all means stick a few notes on The Hammer to outscore Taylor on the 180s or to get the highest checkout for decent odds-against punts. But a big back of The Power has to be in order here as last night saw him roar back to the peak of his game.

The second semi, between Lewis and Wade, will be an altogether tighter affair. Neither fellow likes to hang around at the oche, so the speed freaks will be more than satisfied. Similarly, the maximums will be flying in like wasps around jam, so take a close look at the total 180s market here and pile in. As for the winner of this match, simply lay the favourite and trade out in-running as there'll be more twists and turns than my old Scalextric.

The only sure-fire bet in this fixture is a back of 'overs' in the total legs market. Wait until there's sufficient liquidity and bet with confidence. This one will go the distance, mark my words.

Recommendations:

Back Taylor to beat Hamilton @ [1.05]
Back +25.5 legs in the Lewis v Wade match @ [2.1]

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