World Matchplay Darts Betting: The Power can light up Blackpool at a big price

"Wes Newton is now a firmly established top eight player and has recently moved above Simon Whitlock and Raymond van Barneveld to number five in the rankings."

Back Wes Newton to win @ 36.035/1

Phil Taylor is aiming for a record-equalling fifth successive World Matchplay title at the Betfair-sponsored event. Jaymes Monte assesses the betting ahead of the Blackpool action...

The Obvious Choice
It doesn't take a darts aficionado to pick Phil Taylor out as a potential winner of the World Matchplay. The Power has 11 Matchplay trophies in his cabinet and has won the last four in succession.

Those bare statistics alone suggest that the 2.71/1 available on Taylor winning the 2012 World Matchplay are fairly generous. And the draw handed to the world number one backs up that idea.

Taylor can be vulnerable in the early stages of tournaments, but an opening round match against old foe Mervyn King will only serve to focus his attentions. Should he beat King then Vincent van der Voort or Ian White would not be expected to pose much of a threat in the second round while the same could be said for potential quarter-final opponents Andy Hamilton, Brendan Dolan, Mark Webster and Colin Lloyd.

Gary Anderson is the next highest seed in the top half of the draw but the Scot hasn't played competitive darts for over a month due to an eye problem, and so his form is something of a mystery.

Come next Sunday evening that 2.71/1 on Taylor could look like a gift from the darting gods.

One to Trade
The best options for trading in the outright winner markets of a darts tournament usually come from players in the opposite half of the draw to Taylor. However, this week, the bottom half of the draw is a potential minefield and so I am plumping for an in-form player in The Power's half but in the opposite quarter.

Wes Newton is now a firmly established top-eight player and has recently moved above Simon Whitlock and Raymond van Barneveld to number five in the rankings.

Young James Hubbard will provide a stern examination in the opening round, but The Warrior's experience on the main stage should see him progress with some comfort. Justin Pipe or Joe Cullen await in the second round, and Newton would go into a match against either as a deserved short-price favourite. Then, given Anderson's injury problems, Dave Chisnall is probably the most likely quarter-final opponent.

Although Chizzy has had a fantastic year, Newton has a considerable 6-1 head-to-head advantage over the St Helens flinger, and would again go into the match as strong favourite. Taylor is a potential semi-final opponent but by that point Newton will be trading considerably lower than the 36.035/1 that is currently available and we can bag a tidy profit.

An Outsider to Keep Onside
As mentioned above, the bottom half of the draw is a real minefield. But it does offer up a couple of bigger priced options as a result.

Richie Burnett showed that he can still mix it with the best by reaching the semi-finals of last season's World Grand Prix and subsequently beating Mark Webster at the World Championships. He then teamed up with Webster to guide Wales to the semis of the PDC World Cup of Darts, before a rather inconspicuous UK Open.

The Prince of Wales appeared to have slipped back into the 'also-ran' status that he had become accustomed with, before bursting back to life in Dusseldorf a fortnight ago. There he beat Andy Jenkins 6-2 in the opening round with an astonishing 121 average before defeating Scott Rand, Michael van Gerwen and James Hubbard to reach the semi-finals. The 1995 Lakeside Champion couldn't go all the way as Raymond van Barneveld beat him in the semis, but he did enough to warrant backing him this week, for small stakes at 140.0139/1.

The action kicks off this Saturday evening with the final taking place the following Sunday. I'll be here all week with daily previews of individual matches so be sure to check these pages before placing your individual match bets.

Recommended Bets:
5 points - Back Phil Taylor to win @ 2.71/1
3 points - Back Wes Newton to win @ 36.035/1
1 point - Back Richie Burnett to win @ 140.0139/1

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Masters 2012: Five Augusta clues to take from the Matchplay

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Is Tiger a fading force, or is he slowly tuning his game up?

"Given the stellar form of his main rivals over the past few weeks, it is becoming impossible to justify Tiger's status as joint-favourite for the Masters."

With the first big event of 2012 completed and just five weeks until the Masters, what did we learn from the World Matchplay? Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the performances and progress of the big-names.

Tiger Woods is a false favourite for Augusta
Time is running out for Tiger to re-assert his credentials, before his supporters give up on him ever recapturing the glory days. Prior to the World Matchplay, he'd looked in decent enough nick, but lacking the confidence and ruthlessness in contention that made him the greatest ever. At Dove Mountain, Woods looked all at sea, lucky to beat Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano before losing in the last-16, without Nick Watney having to produce his best golf. Given the stellar form of his main rivals over the past few weeks, it is becoming impossible to justify Tiger's status as joint-favourite for the Masters.

Rory McIlroy seems certain to contend
In contrast, co-favourite Rory keeps improving and is becoming impossible to keep out of the frame. McIlroy wasn't at his best over the whole week at Dove Mountain, and doesn't look particularly well suited to matchplay, yet still reached the final. Most encouraging was how he upped his game when presented with the definitive test of a semi-final against Lee Westwood. Even despite a persistently poor conversion ratio, in-play punters keep being rewarded for backing Rory pre-tournament, with Sunday's second place his tenth top-five finish in 11 starts. It would take a brave man to lay [8.2] for Augusta under the circumstances.

Lee Westwood still can't shed his 'nearly man' reputation
A similar point could be made about Lee Westwood's in-running credentials, but it is doubtful the Worksop Wonder will take any consolation from that. He was extremely frustrated after failing to finish off the Dubai Desert Classic recently, and must have come away from Arizona wondering what he has to do in order to win a big, career-defining title. His golf was peerless for the first four rounds, yet remains without either a Major or World Golf Championship to his name.

Luke Donald's world number one status looks extremely shaky
The biggest surprise of the week was defending champion Luke Donald's opening day trouncing at the hands of Ernie Els, continuing a terrible start to the season. Granted it's early days but following on from 48th and 56th place finishes, Donald is so far unrecognisable from the ultra-consistent character who dominated last season. Perhaps the pressure of being world number one is getting to him, or perhaps 2011 was just as good as it will ever get for Luke. Either way, his Masters credentials are fading fast.

Hunter Mahan is rapidly becoming a big tournament specialist
Lets take nothing away from the new World Matchplay champion. That was Mahan's second WGC title, adding to the 2010 Bridgestone Invitational, and confirms this superb ball-striker has the game for big occasions on championship courses. At the current odds of [46.0], there are worse bets for the Masters, especially as his course record takes the eye. It usually takes several attempts to learn Augusta's secrets, and Hunter has already made an impression with top-tens in 2009 and 2010. The next will be his fifth attempt as a pro, which is just about the right length of apprenticeship.

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WGC Matchplay Bets: Stick with under-rated Mark Wilson

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Home sweet home. Mark Wilson lives in the desert.

"Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers."

There's an all-British and an all-American semi-final to look forward to this afternoon before the final and third/fourth place play-off this evening. Lee Westwood is playing super golf at the moment but don't rule out the outsider of the four, Mark Wilson.

Any in-play traders hoping for a long night of twists and turns were disappointed yesterday, after four one-sided quarter-finals saw only one match head as far as the 16th tee. The players, however, may be thankful for such a short night's work, given they're now faced with a marathon Sunday to finish this long week. The first semi-final tees off at 14.05 GMT to be followed, after a quick break for some dinner, by the final and third-place consolation match.

The two semis are all-American and all-British affairs. First up, Hunter Mahan takes on Mark Wilson, with the latter carrying the hopes of both myself and Steve Rawlings. A pre-tournament selection at [160.0], Wilson has already delivered a 13 unit profit for the weekly Find Me a 100 Winner trading plan, which has rather saved my bacon in what has otherwise been a very difficult week. The second match is a truly mouthwatering affair, between arguably the world's best two players, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy.

Although neither Steve or I have any need to get further involved, if I were starting from scratch Wilson would be the pick from here on value grounds. OK, he's rightly the outsider in such elite company, but there can be no quibbling with his performances. As I say before every matchplay tournament, this format is a specialised art, quite distinct from the weekly strokeplay that largely determines the world rankings and golfing hierachy. Wilson's steady game, making few mistakes and scrambling well when needed, has looked very well-suited to matchplay. He's won every match comfortably, by no margin less than 3 & 2. That isn't the form of a [6.6] outsider.

Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers. Considering he's already won this season, lives in the desert and landed a prestigious title in Arizona last year, those starting odds were an insult. On those occasions, his temperament has really impressed under pressure, which is not something that can be said of any of the other remaining trio. Only a fool would question the class of Westwood or McIlroy, but neither have a good conversion ratio over the past couple of years. Nor has Mahan, whose three PGA Tour wins came from well off the pace.

As for the second semi, while separating McIlroy and Westwood over a season would be difficult, there's no doubt which has been in better form this week. Rory produced easily his best performance so far against Sang-Moon Bae yesterday, shooting the equivalent of four under par compared to level par across the first three rounds. Westwood's golf over the last four days has been vastly superior, shooting a cumulative total of -16. If maintaining that level for another 24 hours, he'll be virtually unbeatable.

Recommended bets

2u Mark Wilson to win title @ [7.2]

5u Lee Westwood @ [1.91] (vs McIlroy)

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Find Me a 100 Winner: One from each quarter at the Matchplay

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mark Wilson looks over-priced prior to this week’s big WGC event

"It is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Mark Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona."

It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona.

All good runs must come to an end somewhere. Having backed Bryce Molder at [150.0] last week, when he begun Sunday playing in the final group, it really wasn't asking much to get our lay order matched at the first target of [10.0].

Molder was indeed matched but only for £84, which isn't really enough to be recorded as a winner, so despite a great start to the season, the yearly stats had to take a hit.

Hopefully we can resume winning ways at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship - an event which requires a slightly different tack to usual. Of course we're still looking for triple-figure priced players who might plausibly win the title, but an extra critical factor this week is the draw.

Firstly, the plan is to pick one player from each bracket, therefore keeping the dream alive of having all four semi-finalists, even if in reality, just getting one would be nice! Secondly, winning their first three matches may well be enough for any of my four picks to hit the first lay target and secure an overall profit, so their early draw paths are key to my thinking.

Beginning in the Bobby Jones Bracket, Mark Wilson is ridiculously over-priced at [160.0]. Luke Donald is red-hot favourite in this section, but even assuming the world number one and defending champ makes early progress, Wilson needn't worry about him until the quarter-finals. Prior to that he has a perfectly winnable opener against Bo Van Pelt, and then worst ways some bigger names with poor tournament records such as Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson. In any case, it is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona.

The Ben Hogan Bracket presents a headache for this column. Only five in this section are within our price range, and of those, only two made any appeal. YE Yang is marginally preferred to Kevin Na on the basis of their weekend performances. Whereas Yang found some form with the putter, Na finished terribly at Riviera with 77/78. [140.0] is a big price about a major winner, especially one with a stellar record in Arizona, who made the quarter-finals last year. Yang's opening match is an intriguing re-match against one of last year's victims, Graeme McDowell.

Another South Korean player is selected in the Gary Player Bracket, where Kyung-Tae Kim catches the eye at [180.0] on the basis of an impressive matchplay performance in the Presidents Cup. Playing under the limelight of the opening final day singles match, against the massively in-form Webb Simpson, Kim took the pressure in his stride and upset the odds. Equally the previous evening, he and Yang showed their matchplay mettle to upset Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson in fourballs. First-round opponent Anders Hansen has no pedigree in this event, and although the odds are he'll face Rory McIlroy in round two, Ireland's finest has an indifferent matchplay record too.

Finally, Fredrik Jacobson at [120.0] in the Sam Snead Bracket on what will be his first crack at the event since 2005. Following a short injury lay-off, Freddy opened his 2012 campaign with a decent 13th place at Riviera, saving the best round for last and prompting high hopes that he can carry on where he left off last year, when closing with consecutive top-three finishes. His classy scrambling skills should be a useful asset in matchplay, and a 50% past win ratio in this event is fairly encouraging too. Most importantly from our trading perspective, Jacobson is fancied to win an all-Swedish opening round match on Wednesday against Robert Karlsson, who is out of form and has a poor tournament record.

The trading advice is to lay out seven units in total, then place two lay orders for 20 units at [8.0] and [3.0]. Reaching the quarter-finals and then taking an early lead would probably be enough to hit the first target and bank a 13 unit profit.

Recommended bets

2u Fredrik Jacobsen @ [120.0]
2u Y E Yang @ [140.0]
1.5u Mark Wilson @ [160.0]
1.5u Kyung-Tae Kim @ [180.0]

Place order to lay each player 20u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay each player 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +52 units

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Darts World Matchplay 2011 Tips: Lewis and Wade to go the distance

Darts / Alex Lee / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

James Wade is set for a long night ahead of him against Adrian Lewis

"The only sure-fire bet in this fixture is a back of ‘overs’ in the total legs market. Wait until there’s sufficient liquidity and bet with confidence. This one will go the distance, mark my words."

Alex Lee looks back at last night's action and ahead to tonight's two semi-finals, where the very evenly matched pair of James Wade and Adrian Lewis resume hostilities in their ongoing rivalry.

Too much sports journalism is ruined by hyperbole these days, with writers getting all hot under the collar to misguidedly celebrate minor achievements. Two of last night's quarter-finals, however, were worthy of every superlative going. Andy Hamilton's turnaround against Simon Whitlock from 8-15 down to 17-15 was, in the words of Sid Waddell, the biggest comeback since Lazarus, while Phil Taylor's unbelievable dismantling of Newton from 1-4 down to 16-5, was borderline miraculous.

Tonight's semis see Taylor take on Hamilton and Adrian Lewis face James Wade in gruelling best-of-33 legs matches. While Hamilton has played the board like a Stradivarius in his relentless crushing of non-English opposition, he'll meet his match in fellow 'Stokie' The Power.

The romantics willing to part with their cash to back The Hammer are doing so because of the attractive odds and his last three enthralling performances, rather than seeing the big picture - which comes in the shape of a billboard-sized animated 3D movie poster of Phil Taylor. By all means stick a few notes on The Hammer to outscore Taylor on the 180s or to get the highest checkout for decent odds-against punts. But a big back of The Power has to be in order here as last night saw him roar back to the peak of his game.

The second semi, between Lewis and Wade, will be an altogether tighter affair. Neither fellow likes to hang around at the oche, so the speed freaks will be more than satisfied. Similarly, the maximums will be flying in like wasps around jam, so take a close look at the total 180s market here and pile in. As for the winner of this match, simply lay the favourite and trade out in-running as there'll be more twists and turns than my old Scalextric.

The only sure-fire bet in this fixture is a back of 'overs' in the total legs market. Wait until there's sufficient liquidity and bet with confidence. This one will go the distance, mark my words.

Recommendations:

Back Taylor to beat Hamilton @ [1.05]
Back +25.5 legs in the Lewis v Wade match @ [2.1]

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World Matchplay Darts Tips: Will hunger drive Chisnal to victory?

Darts / Alex Lee / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Chisnall prevail or is Alex wide of the mark?

"Chisnall has what’s known in sporting parlance as ‘the hunger’. For this reason, back him to beat Walsh tonight."

Don't expect any lightning quick play when two of the game's most careful throwers meet on Sunday night but do expect an intense battle of wits, says Alex Lee. Meanwhile, there are three ofther matches to get your betting teeth into.

Paul Nicholson and Colin Osborne possess strikingly similar throwing styles. Both have, to put it nicely, a 'considered approach'. In other words, they take forever between flinging each dart. That's where their similarity ends, however, with Nicholson the self-styled bête noire as opposed to the more laid-back Osborne.

The 'Aussie Geordie' loves nothing better than to wind the crowd up, while Osborne is more of a quiet grafter. Although Osborne is experienced enough not to let the atmosphere get to him, I fancy Nicholson to adapt to the noise quicker and more decisively. I can't see any upsets here, despite the players being more evenly-matched than the odds suggest.

Next up, Dave Chisnall is one of a number of players who have come through the ranks of the BDO and fancy their chances among the PDC fancy dans. While Walsh has been in the PDC for several years, he hasn't scaled the heights and looks like he's on the descent. Chisnall only joined up with the PDC this year and has what's known in sporting parlance as 'the hunger'. For this reason, back him to beat Walsh tonight.

Tonight's third game sees James Wade take on Jamie Caven. Although Caven is a likable sort with his cheeky chappie demeanour, Wade will view him as nothing more than a barfly to swat on his way to the second round. The Machine will take Caven apart tonight and for this reason a Dutch of 10-1, 10-2 and 10-3 is where the clever money is heading.

The last match of the night pits Raymond Van Barneveld against Steve Brown. If there's one player who looks like he isn't enjoying himself on the oche, then it's Barney. Brown's capable of posting a fair few legs, but the best of 19 format should be long enough for Barney's class to show, regardless of how miserable he looks on stage. Perhaps take Brown on the +2.5 handicap market at around even money for a value punt.

Recommended Bets
Back Chisnall to beat Walsh @ [1.66] or better
Dutch Wade 10-1, 10-2, 10-3 versus Caven

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WGC Golf Tips: Back the matchplay specialist

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luke Donald is arguably the best exponent of matchplay golf in the world

"Matchplay is different, however, especially over 18 holes. Some players clearly prefer this format, and Donald is the ultimate example. Luke has won his five matches this week by an incredible 22 hole aggregate margin, compared to 11 for Kaymer. He is the only player who hasn't at least endured a bad spell of holes, except perhaps when taking his foot off the gas against Manassero."

It's been a marathon week and the reduction of the final to just 18 holes has been welcomed by Paul Krishnamurty. But who will come out on top and seal the deal?

WGC organisers have made a smart move in shortening tonight's final to 18 holes. While we would all like to see as much golf as possible, the week is something of a marathon anyway and previous 36-hole finals have tended to drag on, especially when they've been one-sided. US TV coverage is bad enough without giving them an extra five minutes between shots to fill. And in all truth, it will be nice to put my feet up for a couple of hours with the Sunday paper this afternoon, after yesterday's gruelling schedule.

Martin Kaymer may well share that sentiment after last night's late finish, though if the German needs a lift, all he need do is look at the updated world rankings. Kaymer thoroughly deserves his new status as the world's leading player, especially as his predecessor at number one, Lee Westwood, has started the season slowly. What better way to celebrate than to win his first WGC title?

Nevertheless, punters should be extremely wary of assuming that Kaymer is anything like an odds-on 'good thing' tonight. Indeed a closer look at those rankings shows that if Luke Donald wins tonight, the Englishman will himself rise to number three. It is the perfect illustration of golf's new order, where rather than one man dominating, any one of 10, maybe 20 or even 30 players are separated by a wafer-thin margin.

This final also presents the ideal opportunity to revisit the never-ending punting debate about the relationship between strokeplay and matchplay form. Frankly, if this were a strokeplay event in the desert, I'd be recommending a large bet on Kaymer. Whatever their rankings, choosing between a man with nine titles over the last three years, and another with only one during the last five years plus a plethora of final day failures, is a no-brainer.

Matchplay is different, however, especially over 18 holes. Some players clearly prefer this format, and Donald is the ultimate example. Luke has won his five matches this week by an incredible 22 hole aggregate margin, compared to 11 for Kaymer. He is the only player who hasn't at least endured a bad spell of holes, except perhaps when taking his foot off the gas against Manassero. Factor in Donald's previous record in this event, the Ryder Cup and even the Walker Cup as an amateur, and the Englishman has a strong claim to being the world's finest match player.

When the gap between the top players is so small in the first place, any match like this is going to be basically a toss of a coin affair. For that and the above reasons, my recommendation is to back Donald, although this is not a match for big stakes. Given how closely they are matched, the best strategy might be to lay whoever goes in front first.

The third place consolation match is equally hard to call. Bubba Watson has definitely been superior to Matt Kuchar over the week, but I wonder whether this inspirational player will be able to get his competitive juices flowing again so quickly after yesterday's marathon effort. Kuchar is a completely contrasting type of character, recently taking over from Jim Furyk as the PGA Tour's 'Mr Consistency', and rates a tentative pick.

Recommended bets

2pts Luke Donald @ [2.1] (vs Kaymer)
2pts Matt Kuchar @ [1.9] (vs Watson)

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WGC Accenture Matchplay Tips: Five match bets for day one

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Class act, super record. Geoff Ogilvy has a good chance of winning this week but at the very least should beat Padraig Harrington

"Alternatively with 18 wins from 21 matches in this event, nobody in this field has better matchplay credentials than Ogilvy. The Aussie is a live candidate for a third title, and rates the opening day banker."

This is one of the most exciting tournaments of the golf calendar and one worth a fair few quid too. But who represents the best bets from the opening rounds, asks Paul Krishnamurty.

Starting Time: 15.55

2pts Ross Fisher @ [2.0] (vs Allenby)

Both Fisher and Allenby have plenty of matchplay prowess, but their previous efforts at this Ritz-Carlton venue are incomparable. Allenby had a good record in this event when it was held at La Costa, but since the move to Arizona he's only won one match out of five. That came in last year's opening round, and was followed by a 6 & 5 thrashing at the hands of Luke Donald. In contrast Fisher reached the semis on his tournament debut here two years ago, and is the reigning champion of the other World Matchplay championship, last held in Spain 16 months ago.

Starting Time: 14.55

3pts Ben Crane (vs Scott) @ [2.1]

A hot putter is essential to thrive in this tournament, which explains Adam Scott's disappointing record. Since the event moved to Arizona, he's won just two out of six. Increasingly it seems that the man once labelled as the 'next Tiger Woods' only produces his best on receptive, rain-soaked greens, which he won't get this week in the Arizona desert. Ben Crane, who won his first two matches on last year's tournament debut and is in good form after consecutive top-20s, rates cracking value as the outsider.

Starting Time: 16.45

1pt Jonathan Byrd (vs McIlroy) @ [2.9]

The opening day always produces a few shocks, so given Rory McIlroy's unreliablility he could be worth taking on at tasty odds. Rory could do anything this week. He has a nice draw, and showed a liking for this format in 2009 before coming up against an on-fire Geoff Ogilvy. However, anyone who saw him fall away from contention at the Dubai Desert Classic will baulk at taking just [1.53] over 18 holes, especially knowing that one poor day on the greens would probably spell curtains for this week's challenge. In Jonathan Byrd, he faces an opponent with the same number of wins in the last five months as McIlroy's career total, and who won two matches on his sole previous effort in the World Matchplay.

Starting Time: 17.25

2pts Mark Wilson (vs D Johnson) @ [2.4]

Dustin Johnson has been extremely disappointing over the last fortnight, and having lost in the first round in both previous attempts here, must be opposed at odds-on. A repeat of his recent waywardness off the tee - Dustin has hit less than 55% of fairways in his last three events - would present a few easy holes to this in-form opponent. Though few expect Wilson to keep his superb run going, it is hard to argue with the credentials of a player with two wins already this season, including one on his last visit to Arizona.

Starting Time: 18.55

4pts Geoff Ogilvy (vs Harrington) @ [1.7]

Similarly, without drastic improvement off the tee, Padraig Harrington will face an extremely tough task against thrice finalist Geoff Ogilvy. Harrington has ranked in the top-50 for driving accuracy only once since last August, and lost in the first round on both attempts at the Ritz-Carlton. Alternatively with 18 wins from 21 matches in this event, nobody in this field has better matchplay credentials than Ogilvy. The Aussie is a live candidate for a third title, and rates the opening day banker.

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System - World Matchplay Special!

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Every Jason has his Day. The Aussie has a very winnable first round match against Kyung-Tae Kim.

"Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim."

This is the sort of tournament where everyone is a big price, though not necessarily a value price. But which three figures prices are the ones to be on?

The format used for this week's World Matchplays presents an obvious trading strategy. Because there is a fixed draw, it makes sense to pick out one player from each of the four brackets, in the knowledge that successfully picking just one semi-finalist would guarantee a profit on the event.

Firstly in the Bobby Jones Bracket, odds of [110.0] about Martin Laird are frankly an insult, bearing no reflection to his recent numbers. This is a player with top-five finishes in four of his last seven starts, often in very strong company. Even for one of his lesser recent performances, Laird was bang in contention after four rounds of the Bob Hope Classic. The draw has been fairly kind too, with a perfectly winnable opening match against Edoardo Molinari.

With his odds vastly inflated at [170.0] compared to relatively recent levels, it could be worth taking a chance that the switch from strokeplay to matchplay can work the oracle for Bo Van Pelt. Few players showed more consistent improvement in 2010, so it's too early to write him off for 2011. As it happens, his only decent effort so far came here in Arizona earlier this month when hitting three good rounds at the Phoenix Open. Again his first round opponent in the Ben Hogan Bracket, Louis Oosthuisen, doesn't set a terrifying standard.

Ryan Palmer similarly owes his place in this elite event to a much improved 2010 campaign, although in his case fourth at the Bob Hope Classic confirms he remains in good form. Furthermore, Palmer is in the weakest section, with only three players from the Gary Player Bracket currently trading under [60.0]. If Ryan can upset the odds against an out-of-form Jim Furyk on Wednesday, [160.0] could quickly look huge.

Finally, in the Sam Snead Bracket, Jason Day is an enormous price at [110.0] considering that he starts as hot favourite for his opening match against Kyung-Tae Kim. That quote looks an over-reaction to missing last week's cut, his first for nine months, and the young Aussie prospect is better judged on consecutive top-20s previously in Hawaii.

The trading plan is to invest six units, at odds that combine to a little more than [25.0]. Then, place two lay orders on each player, both for ten units, at [7.0] and [3.0]. Hitting the first lay target would involve winning three matches, and taking the lead in the quarter-final. The second target would involve reaching the last four, and again taking the lead.

Recommended bets

1.5 units Martin Laird @ [110.0]
1.5 units Jason Day @ [110.0]
1 unit Ryan Palmer @ [160.0]
1 unit Bo Van Pelt @ [170.0]

Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [7.0]
Place order to lay each player 10 units @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -12 units

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