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Find Me a 100 Winner: A trio of outsiders for the Wentworth showpiece

"I strongly suspect that before long, we will only be able to dream of taking such odds about the next great Argentinian player. Grillo has repeatedly caught the eye in recent months and with top-25s on five of his last six starts, looks certain to contend strongly very soon."

Several massive outsiders have won the BMW PGA Championship during it's long history, most recently Simon Khan at odds of 600.0599/1 in 2010. This year, Paul Krishnamurty recommends trading the following trio...

As always, a plethora of world-class players head the market for this week's BMW PGA Championship, which is good news for the purposes of this column. Extra quality and depth amongst the favourites means many more plausible winners within our price-range and it must be said that narrowing this week's shortlist was tougher than usual. For example, I will probably have a moan if Paul Casey wins but with three bigger-priced alternatives marginally preferred, the line had to be drawn somewhere.

First up at odds of 150.0149/1, Victor Dubuisson hasn't won yet, but this promising Frenchman looks bound to break through sooner or later. Dubuisson's first 59 starts on the European Tour have yielded an impressive 20 top-25 finishes, including 11 top-tens, four of which have come this season. The feature of his play throughout has been long game excellence, as demonstrated by topping the greens in regulation stats last time out en route to third place in the China Open. That bodes well for Wentworth's tough test, as does 21st on last year's course debut.

Nobody came closer last season to landing this column a winner than Marcus Fraser, who traded at heavily odds-on when losing a play-off for the BMW International Open. He also gave us a good run for our money in this event two years ago, finishing fourth at around 500.0499/1. This year he's available at 160.0159/1, which still looks way too big and something of an insult. Recent form is excellent too, with Fraser finishing second on his penultimate start in the Ballantines, (his third runners-up spot in the past year), and fifth in the Dubai Desert Classic.

Normally I'd be loathe to back a rookie around Wentworth but at odds of 300.0299/1, an exception can be made for Emiliano Grillo. I strongly suspect that before long, we will only be able to dream of taking such odds about the next great Argentinian player. Grillo has repeatedly caught the eye in recent months and with top-25s on five of his last six starts, looks certain to contend strongly very soon. He ranks second for total driving this season and ranked in the top-three for greens in regulation on three of those recent starts. That's the perfect skills-set for Wentworth.

The trading plan is to stake five units in total, then place lay orders at 14.013/1 and 3.02/1 on each player. If just one of them hits the first target, we'll be guaranteed to at least triple our money.

Recommended bets

Back Victor Dubuisson 2u @ 150.0149/1
Back Marcus Fraser 2u @ 160.0159/1
Back Emiliano Grillo 1u @ 300.0299/1

Place order to lay each player 15u @ 14.013/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: + 3 units

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Two big-priced trades for Malaysia

"2013 started well with consecutive top-20s in...two events where he had no past form and wouldn't have been ideal tests even at his peak. Alternatively this short layout...in a region where he's previously thrived, is perfect."

For this week's huge-priced winner hunt, Paul Krishnamurty recommends a couple of classy, albeit streaky, characters...

The headline grabbing names of Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel may give this week's Maybank Malaysian Open a world-class feel, but previous Kuala Lumpur results suggest there aren't many obvious candidates to consider. As Steve Rawlings explains in detail, the cream invariably rise to the top here, as opposed to the Asian Tour regulars or Euro Tour also-rans that make up the bulk of this field.

While that trend offers a pointer for favourite backers, it also makes triple-figure odds about a major champion in reasonable form catch the eye. This column has already made a small profit from Michael Campbell's mini-revival, when he led through 54 holes at the Hong Kong Open last November, and this looks the ideal situation to start following him again.

Of course all bets on a player like Campbell carry a health warning. One of the most erratic players of his generation, Cambo is always prone to throwing in an 80 or turning up at an event rusty or unprepared. Hence the odds. Nevertheless, he has come back from the doledrums three times before during his career and at 44, hasn't reached the age where decline becomes inevitable. 

That isn't to say he'll win another US Open or World Matchplay, but this sort of prize is within reach as we saw before Christmas. 2013 started well too, with consecutive top-20s in Abu Dhabi and Qatar - two events where he had no past form and wouldn't have been ideal tests even at his peak. Alternatively this short layout, where the premium is on accurate iron play rather than long driving, in a region where he's previously thrived, is perfect.

It may also suit Pablo Larrazabal, who hit an impressive greens in regulation percentage over the final three rounds en route to a top-20 last week in India. He's made the top-30 on both visits to Kuala Lumpur and was in contention for a place through 54 holes last year. Again, we are backing a streaky player here, who pops up in close contention relatively often but is hard to predict from one day to next. As with Campbell, the key is probably to get onside only when Larrazabal offers signs of a good streak.

The trading advice is to stake four units in total, then place orders at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1 to bank a minimum of eight units profit should either hit the first lay target.

Recommended Bets

Back Michael Campbell 2u @ 110.0109/1
Back Pablo Larrazabal 2u @ 110.0109/1

Place order to lay both players 12u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: -35.5 units

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FA Cup Stats: Value bets from the winner market and third round match-ups

"One of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage."

Andrew Atherley has crunched the FA Cup numbers to bring you a huge selection of tournament betting options...

One statistical trend stands out above all others when it comes to betting on the FA Cup: it is a competition dominated by the big six to almost the same extent as the Premier League.

Since the last big FA Cup final upset - when Wimbledon's Crazy Gang beat Liverpool in 1988 - only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. All of the current big six have won at least once in that period, with Everton (1995) and Portsmouth (2008) the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold.

Add in the luck of the draw and punters are going to be fortunate indeed to find the overall winner unless they go for one of the big names. Perhaps the best choice at this stage might be Tottenham at 11.5n/a, as they are starting to gain momentum under Andre Villas-Boas and have a relatively easy start at home to Coventry.

But one of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage.

One of the best choices for that approach in recent years has been Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011. They are available to back at 44.043/1 this year and are likely to shorten if they can overcome a difficult start away to Crystal Palace.

It is notable that all eight of last season's quarter-finalists started their cup run against teams below them in the league standings (the seven Premier League teams that made it to that stage all drew lower-league opposition in the third round). Stoke fit that bill, but they may not be the most solid selection this time.

Another possible back-to-lay from the Premier League is Fulham at 38.037/1 as they start at home to Blackpool. Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan are others who have been given good chances to progress to the fourth round.

Another group of teams to consider is the top 12 in the Championship, who often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season Leicester were 12th in the Championship at the start of the third round and were the only team from outside the Premier League to reach the quarter-finals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea.

Leicester, drawn at home to Burton, have a decent chance of shortening again from their current 170.0169/1, as do Middlesbrough from 160.0159/1 on the assumption that they will have no difficulty disposing of Hastings at home.

Another way to profit from the solid form of the Championship top 12 is to back them in individual ties against teams below that level. Those may not be the most eye-catching games of the round, but the record of teams from the top half of the Championship is excellent in that sort of match-up.

The most attractively priced options this weekend are Millwall at 1.748/11 at home to Preston of League One, Leeds at 2.0811/10 at home to Birmingham from the bottom half of the Championship and Derby at 1.794/5 at home to League One leaders Tranmere.

Another trend worth following is that ties involving short-priced Premier League teams are often high-scoring, particularly when they are away to a lower-league team. Ties with the potential to go over 2.5 goals at decent odds include Brighton v Newcastle at 1.8810/11, Bolton v Sunderland at 1.9310/11 and Crystal Palace v Stoke at 2.1211/10.
Recommended Bets
Millwall to beat Preston @ 1.748/11
Leeds to beat Birmingham @ 2.0811/10
Derby to beat Tranmere @ 1.794/5
Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11
Bolton v Sunderland over 2.5 goals @ 1.9310/11
Crystal Palace v Stoke over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Golden Graham to shine in Texas

Find Me A 100 Winner / Steven Rawlings / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Graham DeLaet – Can he contend again in Texas

“Graham DeLaet’s an immense talent with obvious course form and he could just give us a run for our money at a very big price.”

With Paul Krishnamurty resting up ahead of next week's US Masters, Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, continues the search for a monster-priced winner

With a profit of 52 units already this year, stepping into Paul's shoes, even just for one week, is no envious task. Even though he hasn't had a winner yet in 2012, he's still amassed a very tidy sum, demonstrating the power of the pink button. This column is all about getting big-priced selections into contention and making profits by laying them back. I've picked out one selection at each of the week's two events in an attempt to do just that.

With a new venue and a weak looking field, a shock winner of the Sicilian Open is certainly not out of the question and I fancy James Morrison is the best priced outsider in the field. Let's hope he's the one to produce the surprise.

The 2010 Madeira Islands Open winner enjoyed a fair finish to last season, contending in a number of events, with a third placed finish at the Iskandar Johor Open in November the highlight. He's started 2012 slowly but he showed an upturn in fortunes at last week's Tophee Hassan II where after a dreadful start (nine over par through just six holes!), he played quite well.

I fancy this week's links course will suit James and at [160.0] he looks over-priced.

At the Shell Houston Open I'm going to rely on someone who very nearly pulled off a monster win for me two years ago.

Graham DeLaet played most of the 2010 season with a bulging disc but still managed third place here (missing out on the playoff by just one stroke). The back injury worsened at the end of the year when the disc became herniated. Surgery last January virtually put paid to 2011 in its entirety and only now is he starting to play with regularity.

He's an immense talent with obvious course form and he could just give us a run for our money at a very big price.

Recommended Bets
Sicilian Open
1u James Morrison @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Shell Houston Open
1u Graham DeLaet @ [230.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +52 units

Paul Krishnamurty assesses two players who, before failing last weekend, had previously enjoyed runs of promising form. Our man is backing them to bounce back at long odds......

Most of the Open de Andalucia market principals have spent the last few weeks labouring in the US making this tournament one for the outsiders. Paul Krishnamurty picks three to take at triple-figure odds...

It's been a while since we saw a long odds winner at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. So what makes Paul Krishnamurty think this week's event could reverse the trend?...

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Eurovision Betting Trends: Essential info for finding a winner

Eurovision Song Contest / Simon Hopper / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Please note, winners look like these two - Azerbijan's Nikki and Ell

"Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the ‘young is better’ theory."

Five high-quality nuggets to consider before striking your Eurovision bets, thanks to Simon Hopper

Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest can be a real minefield for punters, with endless reams of statistics, YouTube videos and tactical voting patterns to study ahead of the big night. However, there are a few fundamental trends to have developed over the years that are well worth adhering to. I've picked out five key Eurovision betting rules that will hopefully point you in the direction of the 2012 winner...

Defending champions never win...but most winners did well the year before
No country has retained the Eurovision Song Contest since 1994, when Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan won for Ireland performing "Rock 'n' Roll Kids". In fact, no defending champion has even come close to victory in recent years - none of them have even broken into the top five since Turkey in 2004. However, most winning nations did well the previous year. Three of the last four champions finished in the top five 12 months before, including last year's winners Azerbaijan who were fifth in Oslo in 2010.

Nordic and Baltic countries do well
The voting system has changed slightly in recent years but even so you just cannot ignore the superb record of countries from the Nordic and Baltic regions. Nine of the last 13 winners have been from one of these areas, while the likes of Turkey and Azerbaijan have also triumphed in this time to supplement the theory that Eastern nations normally do well. Nordic countries, in particular, are almost always at the top end of the scoreboard - over the last three years, an incredible 33% of all top five finishers were nations from this region. Geographically speaking, Germany are the westernmost winners this century, which isn't good news for the likes of France, Spain or the UK.

Sing an English language song
Eleven of the last 13 Eurovision Song Contest winners sung at least part of their song in English, while all but one of these were sung 100% in English. This is a relevant trend because a lot of acts still choose to perform in their native tongue - eight of the 25 finalists last year fell under this category, and some of the leading contenders this time around are also going down the same route.

Young soloists are dominating
Bad news for Engelbert Humperdinck fans; young solo singers are the Eurovision flavour of the month. Six of the last eight winners were soloists aged 30 or under, while young Azerbaijani duo Ell/Nikki triumphed last year to add further weight to the 'young is better' theory.

Perform towards the end
In recent years, acts performing at the end of the show have had a massive advantage. Over the last 7 years, all of the winners came from within the final 8 acts to perform on the night, and there hasn't been a genuine 'mid-division' champion since Ukraine in 2004.

Singer says Eurovision selection is an "honour" after BBC announces that he will perform for the UK on May 26. And Betfair punters slash the odds on first British win for 15 years......

...or why you should back Iceland and consider a few savers on Romania, Austria and Finland...

The Euro song wars heat up with semi no.2 where those pesky Irish brothers are likely to be a highlight (seriously)...

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Follow The Money: Henderson + Geraghty = winner!

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Masters at work

"Cape Express previously showed a good level of ability when running on the level and represents the all-conquering combination of Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Kempton, Uttoxeter and Ffos Las.

We start at Kempton where Cape Express has seen noticeable support in the 13:45 2m Novice Hurdle, currently trading at [3.0] from an early [5.5].

This seven-year-old was last seen on a racecourse when running at Newmarket in the summer of 2009 and makes his hurdles debut today, meaning a certain amount of faith is required. However, the Cape Cross gelding has previously showed a good level of ability when running on the level and represents the all-conquering combination of Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty. The master trainer is bound to have him fit for this test the gamble suggests his ability remains intact.

We go to Uttoxeter for our next selection where Posh Bird continues to be the backed for the Midlands National at 15:20 and is now the market leader at [6.6] having been available at [10.0]. The mare has improved for the step up to marathon distances this season, winning at Catterick over 3m6f back in January and then only being narrowly denied by a well-handicapped sort in the Eider last time out over today's trip. Although up 5lb in the weights for that effort, Lucy Alexander's claim negates that and she will be receiving weight from all the field. The move indicates she can go one better today.

We head to Ffos Las for today's negative, where Paradise Expected has proved easy to back in the 3m Hcap Chase at 17:10 and is available to lay at [4.3] having been [3.4]. A course winner on seasonal debut, the Tim Vaughan runner has run without success on two occasions since and finds himself only rated 1lb higher than the aforementioned victory. However, with the in-form Mac Helen and the talented but quirky Pancake in opposition today punters seem to feel he will struggle to gain a first victory over three miles.

Recommended Bets
Back Cape Express @ [3.0] Kempton 13:45
Back Posh Bird @ [6.6] Uttoxter 15:20
Lay Paradise Expected @ [4.3] Ffos Las 17:10

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham and Lingfield....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Towcester and Hexham....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Huntingdon and Southwell....

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Wind king Baddeley has winning assets

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Baddeley triumph at Doral?

"The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners."

It's been a while since we saw a long odds winner at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. So what makes Paul Krishnamurty think this week's event could reverse the trend?

Recent history at Doral GC's famous 'Blue Monster' suggests this week's WGC-Cadillac Championship is anything but the ideal tournament for finding big-priced winners. Six of the last seven winners were proven major champions and as Nick Watney was another popular pick last year, it may be prudent to restrict this week's trading plan to just a single selection.

The last shock winner here was Craig Parry in 2004, who registered the sixth Australian victory at Doral since 1990, following on from Greg Norman and Steve Elkington's five titles. Given that Geoff Ogilvy later joined that list in 2008, there is clearly something Aussies like about this place, and yet another of their number looks the best value amongst this week's outsiders.

At odds of [120.00] Aaron Baddeley has plenty going for him. He made the top-15 on his first two attempts here in 2007 and 2008, and finished top-11 on his last two strokeplay starts. Baddeley's classy short game is always a big asset around this layout, where scrambling and putting have been the most pivotal stats in recent years. Furthermore, with seven professional titles, including three on the PGA Tour, usually at attractive odds, he has a win ratio that commands respect and has rewarded loyal followers.

In addition to all that, the biggest factor in Baddeley's favour is the weather forecast. One of the reasons why Aussies tend to fare well here is that, like many of their home courses, Doral is very exposed. The current forecast suggests fairly strong wind speeds on all four days, which I suspect will considerably reduce the number of potential winners. Under such circumstances, it really isn't asking that much for Badds to hit our first lay target at [15.0]. If he does, we'll quadruple the initial two unit outlay.

Recommended Bets
2u Aaron Baddeley @ [120.0]

Place order to lay 8u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +62 units

Florida golf suits some golfers more than others and this pair of selections have excelled in the Sunshine State previously, making them value picks at huge prices for Paul Krishnamurty...

It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona....

With such a long history of course form to go on Paul Krishnamurty believes a couple of old-stagers shouldn't be dismissed lightly at the Riviera Country Club this week....

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Two Florida specialists for PGA National

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Carl Pettersson just loves Florida golf

"Previous stats at PGA National emphasise the importance of a classy short game, and Pettersson boasts impressive numbers for both scrambling and putting average."

Florida golf suits some golfers more than others and this pair of selections have excelled in the Sunshine State previously, making them value picks at huge prices for Paul Krishnamurty

As the PGA Tour begins it's annual 'Florida Swing', the name of the game is searching out those players with form in the Sunshine State. Largely because of the tricky Bermuda greens, some players never seem to produce their best results here, while equally there are plenty who view it as a better opportunity than usual. Both of this week's picks are proven Florida winners.

With four PGA Tour titles to his name, including the 2005 Chrysler Championship at nearby Westin Innisbrook, Carl Pettersson has a better win ratio than most and is therefore always worth keeping an eye on when available at triple-figure prices. He's in solid form, having made his last 12 cuts, including three top-five finishes, most recently when runner-up at the Sony Open. Previous stats at PGA National emphasise the importance of a classy short game, and Pettersson boasts impressive numbers for both scrambling and putting average.

Secondly, I see Steve Rawlings has already put up Stephen Ames, and I wholeheartedly agree. Odds of [300.0] are enormous about a proven Florida specialist, so get on quickly before they disappear.

Three of Ames' four PGA titles came in Florida, where he played college golf, and though it's been a couple of years since he produced his very best, top-25s on two of his last three starts reads well enough. As Steve points out, wind is often a factor around PGA National and Ames is renowned for enjoying his golf when it does.

The trading plan is to lay out three units on this pair, then place a couple of lay orders at [15.0] and [3.0] on each, banking a minimum profit of seven units if any are hit.

Recommended Bets
2u Carl Pettersson @ [140.0]
1u Stephen Ames @ [300.0]

Place order to lay 10u @ [15.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +65u

It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona....

With such a long history of course form to go on Paul Krishnamurty believes a couple of old-stagers shouldn't be dismissed lightly at the Riviera Country Club this week....

If you're looking for a lively outsider at this week's pro-am event at Pebble Beach then bang-in-form Paul Krishnamurty believes [500.0] shot Daniel Chopra is your ideal candidate....

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Find Me a 100 Winner: One from each quarter at the Matchplay

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Mark Wilson looks over-priced prior to this week’s big WGC event

"It is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Mark Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona."

It's a different format this week but the aim remains the same, to find a triple price winner. Paul Krishnamurty marks our card on the best outsiders to back at this week's Match Play event in Arizona.

All good runs must come to an end somewhere. Having backed Bryce Molder at [150.0] last week, when he begun Sunday playing in the final group, it really wasn't asking much to get our lay order matched at the first target of [10.0].

Molder was indeed matched but only for £84, which isn't really enough to be recorded as a winner, so despite a great start to the season, the yearly stats had to take a hit.

Hopefully we can resume winning ways at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship - an event which requires a slightly different tack to usual. Of course we're still looking for triple-figure priced players who might plausibly win the title, but an extra critical factor this week is the draw.

Firstly, the plan is to pick one player from each bracket, therefore keeping the dream alive of having all four semi-finalists, even if in reality, just getting one would be nice! Secondly, winning their first three matches may well be enough for any of my four picks to hit the first lay target and secure an overall profit, so their early draw paths are key to my thinking.

Beginning in the Bobby Jones Bracket, Mark Wilson is ridiculously over-priced at [160.0]. Luke Donald is red-hot favourite in this section, but even assuming the world number one and defending champ makes early progress, Wilson needn't worry about him until the quarter-finals. Prior to that he has a perfectly winnable opener against Bo Van Pelt, and then worst ways some bigger names with poor tournament records such as Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson. In any case, it is baffling how five-times PGA Tour winner Wilson continues to be under-estimated, having won the Humana Challenge only three starts ago and twice last year, including the Phoenix Open in the state of Arizona.

The Ben Hogan Bracket presents a headache for this column. Only five in this section are within our price range, and of those, only two made any appeal. YE Yang is marginally preferred to Kevin Na on the basis of their weekend performances. Whereas Yang found some form with the putter, Na finished terribly at Riviera with 77/78. [140.0] is a big price about a major winner, especially one with a stellar record in Arizona, who made the quarter-finals last year. Yang's opening match is an intriguing re-match against one of last year's victims, Graeme McDowell.

Another South Korean player is selected in the Gary Player Bracket, where Kyung-Tae Kim catches the eye at [180.0] on the basis of an impressive matchplay performance in the Presidents Cup. Playing under the limelight of the opening final day singles match, against the massively in-form Webb Simpson, Kim took the pressure in his stride and upset the odds. Equally the previous evening, he and Yang showed their matchplay mettle to upset Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson in fourballs. First-round opponent Anders Hansen has no pedigree in this event, and although the odds are he'll face Rory McIlroy in round two, Ireland's finest has an indifferent matchplay record too.

Finally, Fredrik Jacobson at [120.0] in the Sam Snead Bracket on what will be his first crack at the event since 2005. Following a short injury lay-off, Freddy opened his 2012 campaign with a decent 13th place at Riviera, saving the best round for last and prompting high hopes that he can carry on where he left off last year, when closing with consecutive top-three finishes. His classy scrambling skills should be a useful asset in matchplay, and a 50% past win ratio in this event is fairly encouraging too. Most importantly from our trading perspective, Jacobson is fancied to win an all-Swedish opening round match on Wednesday against Robert Karlsson, who is out of form and has a poor tournament record.

The trading advice is to lay out seven units in total, then place two lay orders for 20 units at [8.0] and [3.0]. Reaching the quarter-finals and then taking an early lead would probably be enough to hit the first target and bank a 13 unit profit.

Recommended bets

2u Fredrik Jacobsen @ [120.0]
2u Y E Yang @ [140.0]
1.5u Mark Wilson @ [160.0]
1.5u Kyung-Tae Kim @ [180.0]

Place order to lay each player 20u @ [8.0]
Place order to lay each player 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +52 units

With such a long history of course form to go on Paul Krishnamurty believes a couple of old-stagers shouldn't be dismissed lightly at the Riviera Country Club this week....

If you're looking for a lively outsider at this week's pro-am event at Pebble Beach then bang-in-form Paul Krishnamurty believes [500.0] shot Daniel Chopra is your ideal candidate....

Danny Lee is a massive [350.0] and Ryan Palmer a chunky [160.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale but this pair of birdie machines could kickstart their seasons on a course that looks to provide an ideal...

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Find Me a 100 Winner: Avoid the ageist trap at Riviera

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Fred Couples loves playing at the Riviera Country Club

"Fred Couples may spend most of his time dominating the seniors scene nowadays, but has shown on rare PGA Tour starts that he remains a serious candidate on his favourite courses."

With such a long history of course form to go on Paul Krishnamurty believes a couple of old-stagers shouldn't be dismissed lightly at the Riviera Country Club this week.

Hosting this tournament for the 50th time, Riviera Country Club is a course that all the PGA Tour legends know inside out, and that course experience often proves invaluable.

Sound course management, hitting greens in regulation and a classy short game are essential to success, so it's never a surprise to see classy older players faring well. In keeping with that tradition, a couple of major winning Riviera specialists look very much under-rated amongst our triple-figure price range.

Ernie Els has already shown this year that he retains the class to compete on courses he knows well, losing a play-off on his penultimate start at Fancourt. Els won at Riviera back in 1999, finished third in 2007 and tenth on his most recent visit two years ago. Given those credentials about such a popular player, odds of [130.0] are surprisingly generous.

Likewise, Fred Couples may spend most of his time dominating the seniors scene nowadays, but has shown on rare PGA Tour starts that he remains a serious candidate on his favourite courses. Sixth and 15th place in the last two Masters illustrate that, and his record at Riviera is even better, finishing seventh last year in addition to another couple of top-fours since 2006. Again, that simply doesn't equate to odds of [160.0], especially after a closing 68 in Dubai on Sunday confirmed his wellbeing.

Finally, Bryce Molder cuts a completely different type of figure but is simply too big to ignore at [150.0]. This is over four times the odds he was last week at Pebble Beach, which reflected a run of six top-15s from seven starts, including a maiden victory at the Frys.com Open. That represents marked improvement, so previously disappointing numbers at Riviera are probably best ignored and in any case, few young players thrive on their earliest visits.

The trading advice is to place lay orders In-Play on each player at [10.0] and [3.0] respectively to bank some profit.

Recommended bets

2u Ernie Els @ [130.0]
2u Fred Couples @ [160.0]
2u Bryce Molder @ [150.0]

Place order to lay 15u @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2012 Stats: +58 units

If you're looking for a lively outsider at this week's pro-am event at Pebble Beach then bang-in-form Paul Krishnamurty believes [500.0] shot Daniel Chopra is your ideal candidate....

Danny Lee is a massive [350.0] and Ryan Palmer a chunky [160.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale but this pair of birdie machines could kickstart their seasons on a course that looks to provide an ideal...

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Danedream: Arc winner likely for German return

News / Timeform / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Danedream could return in May.

"Everything is fine and she's keeping well..."

Prix de 'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream is likely to start off her season with a run at home in late spring before trainer Peter Schiergen plots serious European targets...

From humble beginnings, Danedream became the first German-trained winner of France's biggest race since 1975 when shattering the Longchamp track record.

She was unable to maintain the form in the Japan Cup but despite her value as a broodmare with three Group Ones in the bag, the daughter of Lomitas remains in training with Schiergen for her four-year-old career.

Danedream, rated 132 by Timeform, is only in light work at her Cologne stable, but Schiergen said: "Everything is fine and she's keeping well. She is just doing small exercises at the moment.

"I haven't decided quite yet where she will run, but she might start in Germany around the end of May and then she will have a lot of entries in Group races and we can think about France and England."

Schiergen said an entry at Royal Ascot would be among many events under consideration.

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X Factor 2011: Popularity the key to finding a winner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Amelia Lily - in danger of elimination

"If you haven’t already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Marcus Collins ([3.2]) and Janet Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support."

After another surprising exit on The X Factor Mike Norman is blaming the British public for their inconsistent voting, but can see popularity winning over ability from this point on.

It goes from bad to worse, betting wise that is, for me on this year's X Factor and it's time to apportion some blame. I'm not one to point an accusing finger usually but needs must, and you lot are the ones I'm not happy with.

Do you not remember that the week before last you loved Amelia Lily, you voted her back into the competition, and you saved her from elimination with ease? And do you not remember you disliked Misha Bryan and put her in the bottom two for the second time in three weeks?

This is not a singing competition remember. We all agreed to put the acts in an order based on how much we like them, and then we proceed to vote off the least favourite each week. On Sunday we were supposed to get rid of Bryan, not Craig Colton. Anyway, I've had a whip round and I've managed to put a few quid together to wager on a few certainties this weekend. But remember, stick to the plan; Lily and Bryan are still bottom of our list.

At least I can console myself with the fact that Jack Houghton - reconfirmed as the God of Reality TV betting - got last week wrong also. When Jack perms three acts to fill the bottom two positions, and none of them end up in the bottom two, then you know that The X Factor has thrown up another odd result.

Nothing should surprise us anymore on this year's show. Just look at Little Mix (Rhythmix). They were matched at [150.0] to win the competition five or six weeks ago, now they are vying for favouritism at around [3.2]. In fact, every one of the five remaining acts has been favourite at some point.

To be fair, Little Mix have arguably been the best performers in recent weeks, and Saturday's rendition of En Vogue's Don't Let Go elevated them to the 'very possible winners' status. For a girl group to get to the last five on the X Factor is some achievement, but for a girl group to get to the last five from 16 finalists having never been in the bottom two of a public vote speaks volumes for both their talent and popularity.

And it's that talent v popularity debate that is oh so vital from this point in.

I was being flippant earlier when I said that The X Factor isn't a singing competition, but there is more than an element of truth to that comment. All five remaining acts have proved they are capable of winning the competition; in other words, on their day they're as good as each other. And that means that who wins simply boils down to who has the most fans.

Singing ability is almost a second requirement now. True, a good or bad week on the stage might win or lose a performer 5,000 votes, but that is likely to make very little difference to someone who has a whole country (Janet Devlin - Ireland) or city (Marcus Collins - Liverpool) behind them.

And it's the popularity factor that means I can easily rule out Lily ([9.0]) and Bryan ([14.0]) from winning this year. I live in a town just outside of Middlesbrough and there's very little support for 'our' girl up here; nothing in the local papers, nothing on the local news, and 'Boro itself - and the surrounding towns - is tiny in population. Bryan on the other hand just seems generally unpopular, and it appears a day doesn't go by without some negative press about her. This will surely take its toll this weekend or next.

It's difficult to work out how much support, and where from, Little Mix has, so at this stage I'd be reluctant to get them on side. But if you haven't already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Collins ([3.2]) and Devlin ([5.2]) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support.

To this week's bets then. I will be gutted if Little Mix get eliminated without me backing them after being unsure of their support, so a small wager goes on them at [21.0] in the 12th Elimination market.

But I have to make Lily my main bet in this market at [3.5] with a saver on Bryan at [3.1]. A Lily or Little Mix exit will result in a good profit, a Bryan exit will result in us breaking even on this market. A bet on Misha/Amelia at [3.2] in the Bottom Two Combo market is also recommended, just in case the public follow the plan. You never know.

Recommended Bets

Back Amelia Lily @ [3.5] in 12th Elimination market (5pts)
Back Little Mix (Rhythmix) @ [21.0] in 12th Elimination market (1pt)
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.1] in 12th Elimination market (3pts)
Back Misha/Amelia @ [3.2] in Bottom Two Combo market (2pts)

Previously Recommended

Back Janet Devlin @ [4.6] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Janet Devlin @ [4.0] in Winner market (2pts) - OPEN
Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt) - OPEN
Back Sami Brookes @ [4.6] in Sixth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Nu Vibe @ [4.0] in Fifth Elimination market (1pt) - WON
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Misha Bryan @ [3.0] in 11th Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Gary Barlow @ [5.0] in First Mentor Eliminated market (2pts) - LOST
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts) - LOST
Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt) - LOST
Back Frankie Cocozza @ [2.1] in Eighth Elimination market (2pts) - LOST
Back Marcus Collins @ [15.0] in Eighth Elimination market (1pt) - LOST

*betting pts settled = 13; pts returned = 8.6; profit/loss = -4.4

Star Predictor

So with just five acts remaining what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner and next elimination markets check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

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Find Me a 100 Winner: In-form Kamte can land big odds

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

James Kamte

"Unlike almost everyone around the same odds, Kamte is at least in good form. Moreover, he should enjoy an advantage over the substantial European contingent on these slow, undulating greens."

Local favourite Kamte finished top 10 last week and knows how it feels to win in his homeland. Could he be under-estimated at monster odds of [160.0]?

Such are the inevitable ups and downs of punting, it is probably best to focus on the positives, rather than dwell on what might have been. It would be easy to bemoan my luck at going so close with Daniel Chopra last week, especially given that the Swede had an eagle putt on the final hole to reach a play-off. However on the other hand, 30 units profit in any tournament is obviously welcome and, lets be honest, my man bottled it after carrying a substantial lead into Sunday. The upshot is that, with just a few weeks left of 2011, this trading advice column has reduced it's annual loss to 11.5 units. Given how hard results have been, and that I haven't found that elusive 100 winner, that's a tolerable return.

Not that the year is over yet of course. There are still a few weeks left to turn that small loss into a profit, although this week it does feel like looking for a needle in a haystack. Triple-figure priced winners simply never happen in Australia or the World Cup, so that just leaves the South African Open.

And to say that there is a dearth of classy or in-form candidates within our price range here is an understatement. With that in mind, I'm going in here with just the one pick, James Kamte at [160.0]. Unlike almost everyone around the same odds, Kamte is at least in good form. Moreover, he should enjoy an advantage over the substantial European contingent on these slow, undulating greens.

Six of the top-ten at Leopard Creek last week were South Africans, one of whom was Kamte, who shot 69/66 over the weekend to share ninth place. All of the other leading South Africans are well below triple-figures, yet on the basis of their Sunshine Tour form, he isn't markedly inferior to the likes of Garth Mulroy and Hennie Otto. Kamte has won four times on that tour, most recently in October at the BMG Classic. Unlike many of his compatriots, Kamte has also won overseas, on the Asian Tour. That's not a bad return for a 29 year-old.

I'm not trying to be too ambitious with the trading plan, placing the first lay target at just [25.0]. If Kamte hits that first target, we'll quadruple our two unit outlay.

Recommended Bets
2u James Kamte @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 8u @ [25.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [3.0]

Updated 2011 Stats: -11.5u

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X Factor 2011: Habibis emerges as the potential winner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

X Factor contender Sophie Habibis

"Very little of Sophie Habibis was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten."

Little was shown of Sophie Habibis during the audition process, but since Bootcamp the 19-year-old Londoner has emerged as a big contender to take this year's crown says Mike Norman.

Don't you just hate deadlines? For the last 48 hours I've been desperately trying to find out what this BIG TWIST is going to be ahead of Saturday's first live show. But I've failed miserably, and now I must make this year's X Factor selections without having a clue what's going on!

I sent emails to everyone who's anyone in the reality TV world (except Jack Houghton) asking for some insight into this weekend's surprise, and the only replies I received were from Syco TV saying that Louis Walsh will be beheaded live on air for even thinking of taking Goldie Cheung to the final, and an email from my boss saying that Mike Norman will be the red hot favourite in the First Elimination market if he doesn't get his preview posted. Charming!

So whatever the twist is going to be I'm afraid I'm completely in the dark, though most of my selections won't be affected by whatever happens on Saturday night.

I've watched all 16 finalists as much as I possibly can. Actually, that's a lie because there is no footage of 'super' group The Risk as they were only put together after the Judges Houses stage was complete. For the record The Risk started off as five solo performers and a group called The Keys. The five individuals then formed a group (called The Risk) only for two of them to be later axed whilst the three that were retained joined one member from The Keys. They were then re-named... err... The Risk!

I think we should all be thankful that The Risk's mentor Tulisa Contostavlos doesn't breed dogs or we'd have a three-legged chocolate brown German bearded collie walking the streets!

I've wrote a few words on each of the 16 finalists here, and from that you can probably deduce who I like and don't like, but after much deliberation I've narrowed an initial five or six-long list down to just two selections in the Winner market.

I've been a massive fan of [5.0] favourite Janet Devlin since the first time that I saw her, and if anyone had have said to me a few days ago that she won't be one of my selections I'd have probably collapsed in a fit of hysterics. But here I am deserting her in favour of 19-year-old Londoner Sophie Habibis. Habibis wasn't even on my radar two weeks ago, but ever since Bootcamp I haven't been able to stop watching clips of her at every opportunity. I'm now officially hooked on her.

I'm not a huge follower of trends in competitions like this either, but we have seven years of results to go on now and it's fair to say that the trends are starting to have an impact, especially when your fancied contestant fits these trends as well as being able to sing.

The last six winners of the X Factor have been in the Boys or Girls category, whilst five of those six winners were between the ages of 18 and 21. Also worthy of note is the location of the previous winners; every one has come from an area with a huge population - Newcastle (Joe McElderry), Manchester (Shayne Ward), Scotland (Leon Jackson), Essex (Matt Cardle) and London (Steve Brookstein, Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke).

Habibis fits perfectly into all these pointers, so at [14.0] to back, she is very much worth a wager at this stage. Very little of her was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten. And above all else she is a great singer and looks to have a very unpretentious personality.

My other selection is the very funny and likeable Craig Colton at [18.0]. Again he fit's the profile of the previous winners though it is a worry that two of the other Boys - Marcus Collins ([14.0]) and James Michael ([18.0]) - also come from Liverpool. If Colton can see off them two and get that part of the country supporting him then he will go far.

One of my strongest recommendations is Johnnie Robinson at [4.2] in the Over 25s market. I can't emphasise enough how likeable this 45-year-old is, and I can see the whole country - except for my boss that is - falling in love with his infectious personality. He's not the greatest singer in the world, but I think the public will do everything in their power to keep him in the competition as long as they can. He is going to be an uplifting journey.

If anyone knows what the much anticipated twist is - or has an idea of what it is - then please leave a comment below. I can officially confirm however that Wagner isn't returning... and neither are Jedward, fingers crossed!

Recommended Bets

Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts)

Already advised

Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt)

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Will Greenwood: How to bet on top try scorer - by a former winner

Rugby World Cup / Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kurtley Beale is a decent outside bet

"The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. In the knockout rounds, the tries dry up."

Will Greenwood was joint-top try scorer at the Rugby World Cup eight years ago. Here, he explains how to play one of the tournament's trickiest markets....

Top try scorer is a very complicated market to bet on at the Rugby World Cup. In 2003, I finished the tournament as joint top, having crossed the whitewash five times during England's victorious campaign, but I shared the honour with Josh Lewsey who scored the same amount of tries in the 113-11 Pool stage humbling of Uruguay.

That shows what a tricky market this can be and why it might pay to look down the market for a long odds candidate. The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. That's where you get the big ten teams playing at odds on, beating smaller nations by huge margins. In the knockout stages, the tries dry up.

At [8.0], New Zealand's Cory Jane is a worthy market leader. He's strong, robust, prolific and, if the hosts are to win this World Cup, as the market expects them to at 1.76, it makes sense to back their brilliant winger to bag lots of points.

But it's not as simple as that. In 1995, South Africa won the World Cup, beating a New Zealand team that included Jonah Lomu at his peak. Marc Ellis, who didn't even feature in the knockout stage for the All Blacks, finished as top try scorer because he ran in six in a Pool win over Japan.

There are three key first round games to consider when weighing up this bet: New Zealand v Japan (again), England v Romania and Australia v Russia. In those games, Jane, Kurtley Beale (26.0), Zac Guildford (13.5), Digby Ioane (10.0), James O'Connor (13.0) and Chris Ashton (13.5) could all take this market by storm.

The games take place on September 16, 24 and October 1 respectively. The big names at the top of the market could be rested so it makes sense to wait to see who is selected before betting big money in the top try scorer market.

Australia's backs could make hay when they meet Italy on the opening weekend for a match in which Ioane could score a hatful. I'm backing England to go far in this tournament but I don't expect them to destroy teams early on in the way that New Zealand and Australia undoubtedly will. For a pre-tournament value bet, Kurtley Beale is my tip at [26.0]. Those are good odds but be sure to return to the market once you know the teams for those key games.

Recommended Bet: 1pt Back Kurtley Beale @ [26.0].

*

Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.

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Find Me A 100 Winner: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational special!

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The lesser heralded Rory of the golfing world is a big price this week

"Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big."

Two course lovers with winning form in 2011 have caught the eye of Paul Krishnamurty in his weekly search for big priced wagers in the world of golf betting

With only one triple-figure priced winner in 11 renewals of this event on this course, Firestone Country Club may seem like the last place to be backing rank outsiders, but there is a legitimate reason to think this year might be different. In truth, it's been hard enough getting double-figure prices about the Firestone champion, as this is one of the events Tiger Woods completely dominated at his peak, winning seven times. Plenty of outsiders made the places during those years, even if it felt like they were effectively playing a different event.

Clearly, the old rules no longer apply, and Woods rates poor value even at a career high of [23.0] this week. Naturally Tiger's demise means shorter odds for everyone else, but given the strength of this elite field, there are still plenty of interesting contenders available in our price range. Take the following pair of 2011 winners.

Another event Tiger monopolised at his peak was the Bay Hill Invitational, and this year's champion might also appreciate the similar emphasis on quality long-iron play at Firestone. Martin Laird has slipped off the radar since landing that second career title, but catches the eye at [160.0] on the basis of an impressive first half of the season.

In recent years, August has been the month when Laird comes to life, whether it was his breakthrough Fedex Cup run in 2008 or last year's narrow second at the Barclays. The likeliest explanation for Martin's summer figures is that the heat and dry, fast greens particularly reward his long-iron accuracy. That is very much the nature of Firestone, where last year's debut 16th was promising.

Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big.

There is a school of thought that the notoriously volatile Sabbatini is a reformed character this year, for which supporting evidence can be found in a win at the Honda Classic and third place at Quail Hollow. However, I would also draw positives from his last two mid-division finishes in the US and British Opens. Sabbatini has an appalling record in those majors, highly prone to giving up, so it was notable to see him battling hard when all was lost, especially in horrific weather at Sandwich.

The trading advice is to have two units on each player, then place the following two lay orders on both at [15.0] and [3.0]

Recommended Bets
2u Rory Sabbatini @ [150.0]
2u Martin Laird @ [160.0]

Place orders to lay both players 10u @ [15.0]
Place orders to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -17u

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Find Me a 100 Winner Trading System: BMW International Open

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Signs are that Boyd could be a winner sooner rather than later...

"Boyd has shown an excellent temperament in contention before, so his breakthrough could be imminent."

After the intensity of Congressional, Paul Krishnamurty believes it's wise to select players who enjoyed a week off during the US Open.

The event immediately following a major is rarely straightforward for the top players, especially when they've been playing on a different continent. In addition to a long flight from Washington to Germany, the leading candidates at this week's BMW International Open, nearly all of whom played in the US Open, will have very limited opportunities for practice rounds and to adapt to the different greens. For that reason, while there are several solid candidates near the head of the betting, this could well be a good week to be backing outsiders. Hopefully, I've found a couple of very plausible contenders, who've enjoyed the benefit of a week off.

Gary Boyd went very close for this column a fortnight ago in Italy, and simply must be retained at the cracking odds of [110.0]. As Steve Rawlings pointed out that week, Boyd's return to form didn't come completely out of the blue, as he'd just qualified for the Open, so there's every reason to think he can carry on the good work. Gary went into many a notebook towards the end of 2010 as a likely first-time winner, when registering seven top-25s on his last 11 starts, thrice challenging strongly inside the top-four. He's shown an excellent temperament in contention before, so his breakthrough could be imminent.

Chilean Felipe Aguilar is also in decent form, making the top-20 in four of his last seven events, twice finishing top-six. Aguilar is a proven winner on various continents, and demonstrated an excellent front-running temperament for a career highlight victory in the 2008 Indonesian Open. He's also shown a liking for the Eichenried layout before, finishing fourth here two years ago, when arriving in nowhere near the same level of form as this time round.

The trading plan is to back each player for two units, then place two lay orders at [10.0] and [3.0], guaranteeing a profit if either man shortens to the first target.

Recommended Bets
2u Gary Boyd @ [110.0]
2u Felipe Aguilar [120.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -39.5u

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Second French WSOP Winner

Hot on the heels of his countryman ElkY yet another French poker pro has won a WSOP event. World Series of Poker Event 22 went to Elie Payan. Payan beat out 1071 players, the largest field ever for a pot-limit Omaha tournament, in order to win his $292,825. Payan is a project manager from Orleans, France, and is 27 years old. The $1,500 pot-limit Omaha Event 22 was the first WSOP victory for the man who goes by "Punisher934" when playing online – and the first WSOP event he'd ever played.

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