The Arnold Palmer Invitational: Tiger looks great to make it eight, says The Punter

“I started out thinking that I’d want 5.04/1 to back Tiger this week and I’ve finished up thinking he shouldn’t be much bigger than 3.02/1, so somewhere in the middle he’s a very confident selection. “

Tiger Woods is bidding to win his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational and our man fancies he will. Read Steve's preview of this week's PGA Tour event here...

Tournament History
In existence since 1966 (when first played as the Florida Citrus Open), the event was floundering badly when Arnold Palmer took over and moved it to Bay Hill in 1979. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the final leg of the Florida Swing this year and once again, it's attracted a high calibre field.

Venue
Bay Hill Club Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Course Details
Par 72, 7,419 yards, stroke average in 2012 - 72.95

As per usual with a Florida track, the entire course is laid to Bermuda and wind is often a factor. The greens are very fast at 12 on the stimpmeter and slightly larger than average.

The course was changed to a par 70 for the three events between 2007 and 2009 but the 4th and 16th holes were reverted back to par 5's before the 2010 renewal. There are 108 bunkers on the course and water is in-play on nine holes.

Bay Hill is true test, where there is no hiding place.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Course Details
Twitter Link
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, 7.00pm on Thursday and Friday, 4.30pm on Saturday and 5.00pm on Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2112 - Tiger Woods -13
2011 - Martin Laird -8
2010 - Ernie Els -11
2009 - Tiger Woods -5
2008 - Tiger Woods -18

What will it take to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?
A good all round game, the capacity to handle windy conditions and the ability to putt on Bermuda greens are all vital.

Total Driving is a good start to examine as length off the tee is a big advantage, but only if you can keep out of the tricky Bermuda rough. Martin Laird two years ago, at 20th, is the worst any winner has ranked for Greens In Regulation in the last five years and good scrambling is key too but since reverting back to a par 72, without doubt, the most significant stat has been Par 5 Performance. ..

Both Laird and Tiger played the 16 long holes in 12 under par, ranking 1st for the week and Ernie Els played them in 10 under in 2010, ranking second.

Is there an identikit winner?
If you take Tiger Woods out of the equation, international players have a very fair record. Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell are the only Americans, other than Woods, to win here this century.

Americans have won all 12 PGA Tour events so far in 2013 but if Woods fails to shine, that run might just come to an end here.

In-Play Tactics
The finish is tough with the last four holes ranking 3, 18, 7 and 1 in order of difficulty last year. The easy par five 16th is the only respite. Players can struggle to hold their tee-shots on the par 3 17th green as the greens speed up throughout the week and the 18th, with water on approach to the green, is always really tough.

In contrast to last week at Copperhead, Bay Hill is not a catch-up course. Since reverting back to a par 72, all three winners have been in the top five after round one and leading by halfway. Just like the first two venues on the Florida Swing - PGA National and Doral, a fast start is essential.

Market Leaders
It doesn't take a genius to work out who's the favourite this week. Tiger Woods' record here is simply incredible. He's played the event on 15 occasions and he's won seven times, including four in-a-row from the year 2000! He was injured in 2010 and didn't play the event so this year he's looking for his 4th win in five starts and should he do so, his strike rate will be 50% spanning a period of 16 years.

When you consider how well he's played at his favourite venues so far in 2013 - a winner at Torrey Pines and at Doral last time out, together with his record here and the fact that he broke a barren spell of getting on for three years with a five-stroke margin win in this event twelve months ago, it's almost impossible to think he's unlikely to challenge.

Phil Mickelson, a winner here in 1997, runner-up in 2002 and third in 2003, is second favourite but he hasn't finished inside the top-20 in five starts since.

Third favourite, Justin Rose, won in Florida at last year's WGC Cadillac Championship, has finished inside the top-ten in his last two starts and was third here two years ago but he looks short enough to me at just 22.021/1.

Three others all trade below 30.029/1 - Sergio Garcia, Brandt Snedeker and Graeme McDowell.

Garcia stuck at the task better than I thought he would last week at Copperhead and he does have a few high finishes here (5 top-10's in his last 10 starts) but he's only once broken 70 on the weekend, way back in 2001.

Snedeker was the hottest player on the planet before he was struck down with a rib injury and this is his first start in over a month. The chances are he'll be a bit rusty with Augusta on his mind and given he has an ordinary record at the track too, he's readily overlooked.

G-Mac was Tiger's closest challenger here last year, as well as last time out at Doral and he was also the runner-up here in 2005. He's in fine form, isn't intimidated by Woods and of the market leaders, other than Tiger, he's my idea of the best value.

Selections
Tiger Woods has the iron-will to get the job done here even when he's not up to his best. If one aspect of his game hasn't been up to scratch, he's somehow been able to shine elsewhere to compensate. When he won here in 2008 and 2009, he did so despite not driving well, and in 2009, he only ranked 50th for GIR too, but he was still able to win because he was the best scrambler and second best putter that week.

He was easily beaten here in 2010 but his game was in a poor state that year and he'd also put in distinctly ordinary efforts at both Torrey Pines and Doral that year too.

I started out thinking that I'd want 5.04/1 to back him this week and I've finished up thinking he shouldn't be much bigger than 3.02/1, so somewhere in the middle at 4.1n/a, he's a very confident selection.

I've also had a small saver on Bubba Watson, who I backed last year when he finished 4th. I've played him a number of times already this year and he hasn't quite shined yet but I gave up on him last year, just as he won the US Masters and that still grates.

Bubba is one of the world's very best players on his day and he often looks over-priced. This is one of those occasions.

Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Find Me A 100 Winner: WGC-Bridgestone Invitational special!

Find Me A 100 Winner / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

The lesser heralded Rory of the golfing world is a big price this week

"Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big."

Two course lovers with winning form in 2011 have caught the eye of Paul Krishnamurty in his weekly search for big priced wagers in the world of golf betting

With only one triple-figure priced winner in 11 renewals of this event on this course, Firestone Country Club may seem like the last place to be backing rank outsiders, but there is a legitimate reason to think this year might be different. In truth, it's been hard enough getting double-figure prices about the Firestone champion, as this is one of the events Tiger Woods completely dominated at his peak, winning seven times. Plenty of outsiders made the places during those years, even if it felt like they were effectively playing a different event.

Clearly, the old rules no longer apply, and Woods rates poor value even at a career high of [23.0] this week. Naturally Tiger's demise means shorter odds for everyone else, but given the strength of this elite field, there are still plenty of interesting contenders available in our price range. Take the following pair of 2011 winners.

Another event Tiger monopolised at his peak was the Bay Hill Invitational, and this year's champion might also appreciate the similar emphasis on quality long-iron play at Firestone. Martin Laird has slipped off the radar since landing that second career title, but catches the eye at [160.0] on the basis of an impressive first half of the season.

In recent years, August has been the month when Laird comes to life, whether it was his breakthrough Fedex Cup run in 2008 or last year's narrow second at the Barclays. The likeliest explanation for Martin's summer figures is that the heat and dry, fast greens particularly reward his long-iron accuracy. That is very much the nature of Firestone, where last year's debut 16th was promising.

Rory Sabbatini has twice finished second in this event, to Tiger in 2007 and Stewart Cink three years earlier. Given that obvious liking for course conditions and some decent 2011 figures, [150.0] strikes me as way too big.

There is a school of thought that the notoriously volatile Sabbatini is a reformed character this year, for which supporting evidence can be found in a win at the Honda Classic and third place at Quail Hollow. However, I would also draw positives from his last two mid-division finishes in the US and British Opens. Sabbatini has an appalling record in those majors, highly prone to giving up, so it was notable to see him battling hard when all was lost, especially in horrific weather at Sandwich.

The trading advice is to have two units on each player, then place the following two lay orders on both at [15.0] and [3.0]

Recommended Bets
2u Rory Sabbatini @ [150.0]
2u Martin Laird @ [160.0]

Place orders to lay both players 10u @ [15.0]
Place orders to lay both players 20u @ [3.0]

2011 Updated Stats: -17u

Paul Krishnamurty's column continues to bang at the door of a big win. Will this be the week for our man and his followers?...

After a thrilling weekend at Royal St Georges it might be time for a long odds winner at this week's Nordea Masters, says Paul Krishnamurty....

Five of the last 12 champions have gone off at [300.0] or bigger so consider one or more of this quintet for your Open bets...

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: Volvo World Match Play Championship, Madeira Islands Open and Crowne Plaza Invitational

Golf > The Punter > The Punter's Live Golf Blog: Volvo World Match Play Championship, Madeira Islands Open and Crowne Plaza Invitational

View Market The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nicolas Colsaerts – Still standing in Spain

“Jhonattan Vegas led Colsaerts a merry dance this morning but with the jam-stick in sight the Venezuelan lost his way and Colsaerts now meets McDowell this afternoon. Fingers and toes crossed.”

We're down to the last-eight at the Match Play and our man's pre-event picks are still alive...

12:30 - May 21, 2011

After two dull days, the Volvo Match Play Championship has come to life and it's been a great morning's entertainment. I've lost in-running play Ross Fisher, who went to the final hole one down to Charl Schwartzel this morning and then made eagle! One would assume that would have taken the match to extra time but it wasn't to be - the Masters champ showed his class by matching Fisher's eagle and he goes forward to play Luke Donald, who got the better of Johan Edfors at the first extra hole. Luke was poor and looked out of it when he was matched at a high of [70.0] but he was let off the hook when the big Swede put in a very scruffy finish.

Martin Kaymer didn't play brilliantly but overcame a poor Soren Kjeldsen and now meets Alvaro Quiros, who came from behind to beat Seung-yul Noh. I've added the Spaniard now at an average of [9.6]. Hopefully Kaymer won't improve this afternoon and the likable Spaniard can make it through to tomorrow's semi-finals.

It looked like I'd done exactly the right thing by backing Jhonattan Vegas when he led my pre-event pick Nicholas Colsaerts a merry dance this morning but with the jam-stick in sight the Venezuelan lost his way and Colsaerts now meets Graeme McDowell this afternoon. Fingers and toes crossed.

If he can wriggle past G-Mac he'll meet either Francesco Molinari, who has taken a serene passage to the quarter final, or my other pre-event pick, Ian Poulter.

There's an old saying in golf - two up with five to play never wins and it looked for a while as if that would be the case again. Poults was in that position before losing the 14th and 15th holes to Westwood but mercifully he straightened up and managed to birdie the last two holes to pip the world's number one by a hole.

I certainly can't complain about my book at present, though I may tweak it this afternoon.

Over in the States at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, I don't know what I'm more surprised about, the fact that they managed to get round two completed or the fact that David Toms backed up his superb first round 62 with another one!

Dan Geragthy, who picked out Toms before the off at [40.0], has a decision to make now and what a fantastic decision to have. Lay back some of his winnings or let it roll? Toms is now seven shots clear of a somewhat rag-tag bunch and trading at less than [1.5].

The way Toms is playing reminds me of the way he did when he demolished the field at the 2006 Sony Open, but the caveat is that that was his last success. It's hard to imagine him struggling given the evidence of his last six rounds (lost in a play-off at last week's Players Championship) but you just never know, it's been a long time since that win and he now has plenty of time to contemplate victory here.

Rather than lay Toms, I've backed Mark Wilson at [22.0] and Rory Sabbatini at [26.0].

21:10 - May 20, 2011

After two long days, in which we saw Miguel Angel Jimenez eliminated, despite battering Masters Champ Charl Schwartzel 6 & 5, Ian Poulter progress without winning a match, and the last five matches played out today, merely determining who plays who tomorrow - we've finally arrived at a point that the Volvo Match Play Championship can get properly started.

The Sky pundits have to commend the format but it's been a farce as far as I'm concerned. However, we're now down to 16 players and a straight-forward knockout which should provide some excellent entertainment over the weekend, especially tomorrow. And fortunately, my two pre-event picks have made it through...

Poulter isn't at his best and was lucky to get a draw against both Francesco Molinari and Paul Lawrie, and he'll need to improve considerably if he's going to get past world number one Lee Westwood in the last of the morning ties. He's the same price now that he was from the start and I'm not too confident but match play does usually bring out the best in Poults and he's sure to be revved-up for the clash.

My only other pre-event pick, Nicolas Colsaerts, has fared much better. He beat Retief Goosen this morning before easily overcoming Rory McIlroy in the afternoon, and he now faces the big-hitting Venezuelan, Jhonattan Vegas. Once it looked likely that Vegas would meet Colsaerts, I set about getting him onside at a big price too and I managed to do so at an average of [50.0]. Whether either of them can get past the next round is debatable but if they do I'll be in a strong position going into the semi's - especially if Poulter's the opponent waiting for them.

I've had a couple of in-running bets on the other side of the draw - one flop and one still alive. I took a gamble that Paul Casey would come back and get the better of Soren Kjeldsen this afternoon but it wasn't to be; it was well worth getting Ross Fisher onside though, as he made inroads into Ryan Moore's lead in their match this morning. He managed to turn that match around, winning on the final hole before losing to Luke Donald this afternoon but he was safely through anyway and the pair could well meet again tomorrow afternoon if they can get past Schwartzel and Johan Edfors respectfully.

The less said about the other European Tour event, the Madeira Islands Open, the better. I'd input a bet on halfway leader Simon Thornton at [80.0] on Monday but once Keith Elliott had tipped him up on his phone line I had no chance of getting matched. I felt [60.0] was too short about a 34 year-old that hasn't come close to winning yet, so I let him go un-backed. Suffice to say I'm not a happy chappy. I'm not backing him at less than [5.0] now though, if he wins he wins, I'll get over it...eventually!

Things haven't gone great in the States either, where play has just been suspended due to thunder. Zach Johnson started like a train last night and was matched at just [11.0] after he reached -3 after just five holes but he's stuttered badly after that.

I added Anthony Kim during the first round at [55.0] but he trod water soon after I had and the best of my pre-event picks is Brian Gay, but he's plummeting down the leaderboard at a rate of knots in round two.

I was tempted to get Rory Sabatini onside but I'm going to wait and gauge what the afternoon starters do this evening. Dan Geraghty's David Toms is carrying on the good form after last week's near miss at Sawgrass and he's threatening to run away with proceedings at present. If he carries on Sabbatini will lengthen, so I'm holding off for now.

I'll be back during play tomorrow to take a look at the last eight in the match play.

Volvo World Match Play Championship

Pre-Event Selections:
Ian Poulter @ [19.0]
Nicolas Colsaerts @ [80.0]

In-Running plays:
Paul Casey @ [50.0] during the group stage
Ross Fisher @ [50.0] during the group stage
Jhonattan Vegas @ [50.0] during the group stage
Alvaro Quiros @ [9.6] prior to the Q/F

Madeira Islands Open
Pre-Event Selection:
Joaquin Estevez @ [200.0]

Crowne Plaza Invitational
Pre-Event Selections:
Zach Johnson @ [27.0]
Ben Crane @ [28.0]
Brian Gay @ [46.0]
Pat Perez @ [55.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [120.0]
Stephen Ames @ [240.0]

In-Running plays:
Anthony Kim @ [55.0] - During round one
Mark Wilson @ [22.0] - After round two
Rory Sabbatini @ [26.0] - After round two

Our man has a good ole moan about this week's flagship event before plumping for an "almost legendary" match play exponent. He's also looking to back-to-back Zach for riches in Texas......

Choi joy for the Punter as the likable Korean caps a great weekend for our resident Man City fan......

Rain stops play at the Players and Wood looks poised for success in Spain......

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Open de Andalucía and the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

The Scottish flag draped proudly behind the 17th tee as Laird tees off

“If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who’s in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now.”

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet...

We witnessed a rare Scottish double this weekend, as Paul Lawrie recovered from a dreadful start to record his first success in nine years and Martin Laird somehow recovered from an even worse start to win in Florida. Laird showed great determination in the end but his victory wasn't without a slice of fortune. He traded odds on early on, before drifting right out to double-figures when looking beat.

Five over par for the day and clearly on the ropes, his second shot on the par-5 12th hit the lip of a fairway bunker yet still found the green, from where he made birdie and never looked back. An inch lower and the balls buried and Marino wins. By such small margins titles are decided.

Elsewhere in the world of golf, it was nice to see Kiradech Aphibarnrat win his first Asian Tour title and Brett Wetterich' s long journey back from injury end in success on the Nationwide Tour - the PGA Tour's feeder Tour.

My Bets

With two leaderboards that I felt looked a bit iffy, I quietly fancied my chances going into yesterday but it wasn't to be.

At the Open de Andalucía, pre-event pick Jose Manuel Lara looked to be in just the right spot, tucked in behind the dodgy looking leading pack, but his irons were anything but dialled in and he never ever threatened and eventually finished in a tie for 8th.

It looked a minefield and the only plus was that I treated the whole event with the caution it deserved. My few in-running bets before yesterday are detailed in the Live Golf Blog but I did have one more bet yesterday - a very small wager on Chile's Felipe Aguilar, though I do regret not laying Mark Foster. Remarkably, he hit a low of just [1.3] after only three holes before crumbling to a tie for 4th.

I made a couple of further plays during the final round of the Arnold Palmer, backing both Trevor Immelman, at an average of [65.0], and Justin Rose at [100.0] but my big disappointment was pre-event pick Bubba Watson - more on that later.

Player to Watch

He's not for me, purely because I believe you need to be up with the pace to win the US Masters and I don't think he quite has the nerve for it, but Justin Rose will be a solid selection for many in the lead-up to the year's first Major.

Currently trading at around [36.0], I can see him shortening up over the next ten days. He's in fine fettle, has form at Augusta and may well prove popular in the press. If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who's in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now. And the big plus is that he doesn't play next week so there's no danger of him spoiling your bet by playing pants in Houston.

Player to swerve

For years, and I do mean years, Bubba Watson was on my 'avoid like the plague' list due to his very nervy in-contention play but then he managed to squeeze past old-timers Corey Pavin and Scott Verplank in a play-off at last year's Travelers Championship to record his maiden win.

That effort didn't convince me though, the win had as much to do with Justin Rose's final round collapse (he traded as short as [1.21] on Sunday) as it did Bubba's mental fortitude. With his Dad dying the scenes afterwards were emotional to say the least and there isn't a man alive that could have begrudged him his win, but I'll be honest, at the time I thought it was probably a one-off.

Then remarkably, or so I thought, he found himself in a play-off for the US PGA Championship, were a final hole blunder eventually handed the initiative to Martin Kaymer. Though still not wholly convinced, I was as impressed as I was surprised.

Fast forward to January, and yours truly is sweating on a very decent wager on Phil Mickelson to win the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines but who should deny him the win, in what was the most impressive display of clutch putting and bottle...Bubba. I was convinced.

He was a changed man and one that was surely going to go on to bigger and better things. I'm going to follow this man at decent odds when conditions suit his game I thought. He's now a real competitor with proven bottle...

So, as they say up here around Sheffield way, what the chuff happened yesterday!

That was a pathetic effort from start to finish and my opinion has been swayed back in dramatic fashion. He had admitted to feeling very nervous on Saturday and I can only assume those nerves just got worse on Sunday. As things stand, I have to conclude that in all likelihood the impressive, and boy was it impressive, performance at Torrey Pines was quite possibly a one-off. I very much regret, caution re Bubba is very much advised again going forward.

What have we leant for next year?

If I can get away from my disappointment re Bubba for a moment, which isn't easy, and view the Arnold Palmer objectively, it really was a cracking event. It had the feel of a major and was a remarkably tough test. The bunkers are proper bunkers and if you go in them you can expect to be punished. They certainly cost poor ole Steve Marino the title as he found himself plugged twice late on.

It's a really tough finish. The per-5 16th is the easiest hole on the course but that's the only respite. Although it 'only' ranked as the 6th toughest hole, the par-3 17th is ridiculously tricky and players found it almost impossible to land their ball on the green. Even when they hit the very front the ball just scooted through and either out the back or into the back bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see a notorious Arnold Palmer tweak there because it was a bit daft really. And holes 14, 15, and 18 rank as the three hardest on the course, things can change very fast, as they did this year - Steve Marino was matched at a low of just [1.3] before he played the final five.

Those that suddenly found themselves in the mix thanks in part to the leaders stalling, like Rose, Immelman and Marc Leishman may well recover easily enough but the mental demands put on Laird, Marino, David Toms, Spencer Levin and indeed Bubba over the weekend could leave a mark for some time. That was a tough weekend to say the least.

This week's events are the Trophee Hassan II from Morocco and the Shell Houston Open from Texas. I'll be back tomorrow night with a preview.

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: Open de Andalucía and the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Martin Laird – Aiming for the top at Bay Hill

“Martin Laird entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba’s got a great chance.”

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week....

23:25- March 26, 2011

Rikard Karlberg looked for just a moment as though he might work his way back into the Open de Andalucía but two bogeys in his last three holes of round three ended the slight recovery and any hope I had. And Hedblom was shocking too. He'd made just one bogey all week but managed to add a second pretty much as soon as I'd backed him!

With a round to go Paul Lawrie leads on -12 with Kennie Ferrie and Mark Foster a shot back on -11. The mercurial Johan Edfors is on -9 and then my man Lara sits in a tie for 5th alongside last week's winner Raphael Jacquelin and Chile's Felipe Aguilar on -8. What a rag-tag bunch!

One of the front-three really ought to win but I couldn't put money on any of them. It's interesting to note the wealth of experience up there and I don't wish to belittle any of them, but none of them are safe betting conveyances.

Marcel Siem's arguably even less reliable than any of the above but sitting on -6, I thought he was a fraction big at [65.0], so he's been added. It looks like he and Lara are my only hope so I can't say I'm confident but we'll see.

Over in the States, KJ Choi crashed spectacularly and for the second week in-a-row I was rueing backing someone on the back of a low round. Just like Nick Watney last Sunday, Choi simply couldn't get close to the previous day's performance and has dropped right out of contention. All is not lost though; Bubba Watson sits in 3rd and is only four off the lead with just two men in front of him.

Two clear of Bubba in 2nd is Spencer Levin but I'll be surprised if he has the temperament to win. He really is a wound-up character and his reaction to a poor drive on the 16th hole was hilarious. I've watched it umpteen times and it makes me laugh every time.

Laird is a perfectly fair price at odds against and a level par round should get it done. His final round record's fairly good but I was spooked by his performance the last time he had a chance to win. He entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba's got a great chance.

The only others that look to have a chance are Steve Marino, alongside Bubba. No thanks. Rickie Fowler, who on -6, could just have things fall right here, but is too short considering he still hasn't won and David Toms. He's also on -6 but hasn't won or even looked like winning, in eons.

I'll be back on Monday with my Tournament De-Brief.

14:35- March 26, 2011

Have to admit I'm very disappointed with Karlberg, thought he'd fare much better today. He's just made the turn in two over par and is plummeting down the leaderboard at a rate of knots.

We very nearly witnessed the first 59 on the European Tour today when Kennie Ferrie very nearly holed his approach shot from the rough on 18 but it missed by inches and he had to settle for a round of 60.

I've just added Peter Hedblom at [30.0]. It's a very, very weak leaderboard and if he can pick up two more birdies coming in that price will look big tomorrow. He currently has seven holes to play, including two par-5's, and is four back of Ferrie, who's in the clubhouse on -11.

09:20- March 26, 2011

At the halfway stage in Spain, tricky doesn't quite cover it. 71 players have made the cut and only seven shots separate them all, with 22 players separated by just four strokes at the top of the leaderboard. The biggest threat in the top-22 has to be Alvaro Quiros but I'm still not convinced this venue suits him and he appeared to get away with it a bit yesterday, making lengthy putts and chipping in.

Nobody's trading in single figures and it isn't surprising, it's impossible to call at this stage. My man Karlberg is still tied for the lead and still finding plenty of greens but he isn't putting great. His chance is a fair one though and I've got to bag one of these monster-priced picks sooner or later. Why not this week?

If I had to back anyone else at this stage I'd probably go for Japan's Tetsuji Hiratsuka who tops the putting stats this week but I'm doing nothing more for now.

Over in the States, Bubba's woeful putting continued but he still managed to shoot under par, albeit only just. He sits on -3 alongside Tiger Woods, six behind Martin Laird's lead and it's very hard to envisage him figuring at the finish unless the flat-stick starts working.

I've ventured into the market again here, backing KJ Choi last night at an average of [11.0]. His faultless 64 yesterday was a far cry from last Friday's effort. I'd backed him from the outset last week at the Transitions Championship, an event he has a fantastic record in, but after opening up with a perfectly respectful 69 he flopped on Friday and missed the cut. What a difference a week makes!

KJ isn't the ruthless closer he once was but I'd fancy he's still the strongest mentally amongst the leaders here. I'm far from convinced by Laird (who incidentally was a pick for me in this last year at [240.0]!) and Levin, alongside Choi and one behind Laird, started to tread water at the end of round two. And the bunch two back on -6 are all worth swerving at this stage...

Steve Marino, Charles Howell and Vaughn Taylor have shocking in-contention records and the classy Hunter Mahan is very hard to catch right and can't possibly warrant support at just [8.0].

11:45- March 25, 2011

With the Open de Andalucía in progress as I write, I'll start with the US PGA Tour event first.

A stiff breeze caused havoc with the majority of the field in round one and some top-class players posted scores that were very hard to envisage before the off. Graeme McDowell wasn't the only man unable to break 80 and only 21 players broke par.

Spencer Levin yet again makes the early running after shooting a remarkable six under par 66 and sooner or later he's going to win one. After losing the Mayakoba Classic to Johnson Wagner in a play-off just a month ago, he led the field at the Honda Classic after day one before fading to tied 14th. Spencer has teed off already in round two, at 11.40 UK time, and with perfect greens to putt on this morning and a three shot lead he justifiably heads the market.

This was the first time in ages that I wasn't in the least bit tempted by Phil Mickelson at a fancy price and he's gone and shown why I'm often prepared to give him yet another chance. He has a habit of finding form, just as the majority are writing him off. He putted very well yesterday and I shall have a close eye on him later and may well get him onside at some point but I do wonder whether a hot putter was masking the rest of his game yesterday.

On the same score as Phil (-2) is Bubba Watson but quite how is a mystery. He must be playing some quite brilliant golf because he's putting like Stevie Wonder. He ranked highly for Greens in Regulation (GIR), one of the key stats for Bay Hill and hit the ball further than anyone else off the tee but had a putting average of 2.077. He three-putted the par-5 4th, missed from inside ten feet for birdie on the 5th and from seven feet on the 6th. He'll need to improve on that no end because all that sort of putting gets you at this level is a weekend off.

Tiger Woods was yet again held back by some appalling driving but showed he's definitely on the up. He bogeyed the last but it was a gutsy display and not many could have scored 73 in those conditions, playing from the rough on nearly every second shot!

I'm not going to do anything more at this stage other than hope Bubba gets his putting boots on later because if he does I'm in with a shout.

The second round is starting to take shape in Spain and Alvaro Quiros is fighting his way back to the fringes of contention, whilst tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez is struggling to make the cut.

I have Jose Manuel Lara currently three off the lead but he's having a fairly disappointing day and for the second Friday running appears to be giving up a good start - though he is making birdies again as I type.

[1000.0] shot Jorge Campillo has done me proud so far and will start his second round this afternoon on -3 - five of the lead but my big hope now is Rikard Karlberg.

The Swede, backed at [300.0], tied for the lead after day one and reading his blog this morning, I just love his attitude. "Driving in the frontseat right now. Will try to get everyone behind me in the backseat after Sunday. GO gogo." How refreshing is that? This man has a real desire to succeed and you can see why he's already a multiple winner on the Asian Tour.

If anything significant happens, I'll post again later. If not, I'll be back in the morning.

Pre-Event Picks

Open de Andalucía

Simon Dyson @ an average of [42.0]
Jose Manuel Lara @ [70.0]
Steve Webster @ [120.0]
James Morrison @ [260.0]
Rikard Karlberg @ an average of [300.0]
Jorge Campillo @ [1000.0]

In-Running bets

Peter Hedblom @ [30.0] - during round three
Marcel Siem @ [65.0] - after round three

Pre-Event Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bubba Watson @ [44.0]
Zach Johnson @ [55.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]
Stephen Ames @ [170.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [290.0]

In Running Bets

KJ Choi - during round two at an average of [11.0]

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

The Race to Dubai heads for Spain this week with Miguel Angel Jimenez hosting proceedings. Whilst in the States, Tiger's back in action and after win number seven at Bay Hill......

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WPT Celebrity Invitational Won By Davidi Kitai

When the final table wrapped at the WPT Celebrity Invitational it was Davidi Kitai who was the last standing. The poker game wrapped with $100,000 raised for charity. The poker players fought for status and the $100,000 prize purse for first place. The prize came with a seat to the World Poker Tour World Championship. The game is more about celebrity than poker pros, and there were plenty of both playing. Almira Skripchenko took second place with Dan Heimiller finishing in third, George Rechnitzer in fourth, Damon Schramm in fifth and  Dinara Khaziyeva taking sixth.

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