The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Martin Laird – Aiming for the top at Bay Hill
“Martin Laird entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba’s got a great chance.”
Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week....
23:25- March 26, 2011
Rikard Karlberg looked for just a moment as though he might work his way back into the Open de Andalucía but two bogeys in his last three holes of round three ended the slight recovery and any hope I had. And Hedblom was shocking too. He'd made just one bogey all week but managed to add a second pretty much as soon as I'd backed him!
With a round to go Paul Lawrie leads on -12 with Kennie Ferrie and Mark Foster a shot back on -11. The mercurial Johan Edfors is on -9 and then my man Lara sits in a tie for 5th alongside last week's winner Raphael Jacquelin and Chile's Felipe Aguilar on -8. What a rag-tag bunch!
One of the front-three really ought to win but I couldn't put money on any of them. It's interesting to note the wealth of experience up there and I don't wish to belittle any of them, but none of them are safe betting conveyances.
Marcel Siem's arguably even less reliable than any of the above but sitting on -6, I thought he was a fraction big at [65.0], so he's been added. It looks like he and Lara are my only hope so I can't say I'm confident but we'll see.
Over in the States, KJ Choi crashed spectacularly and for the second week in-a-row I was rueing backing someone on the back of a low round. Just like Nick Watney last Sunday, Choi simply couldn't get close to the previous day's performance and has dropped right out of contention. All is not lost though; Bubba Watson sits in 3rd and is only four off the lead with just two men in front of him.
Two clear of Bubba in 2nd is Spencer Levin but I'll be surprised if he has the temperament to win. He really is a wound-up character and his reaction to a poor drive on the 16th hole was hilarious. I've watched it umpteen times and it makes me laugh every time.
Laird is a perfectly fair price at odds against and a level par round should get it done. His final round record's fairly good but I was spooked by his performance the last time he had a chance to win. He entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba's got a great chance.
The only others that look to have a chance are Steve Marino, alongside Bubba. No thanks. Rickie Fowler, who on -6, could just have things fall right here, but is too short considering he still hasn't won and David Toms. He's also on -6 but hasn't won or even looked like winning, in eons.
I'll be back on Monday with my Tournament De-Brief.
14:35- March 26, 2011
Have to admit I'm very disappointed with Karlberg, thought he'd fare much better today. He's just made the turn in two over par and is plummeting down the leaderboard at a rate of knots.
We very nearly witnessed the first 59 on the European Tour today when Kennie Ferrie very nearly holed his approach shot from the rough on 18 but it missed by inches and he had to settle for a round of 60.
I've just added Peter Hedblom at [30.0]. It's a very, very weak leaderboard and if he can pick up two more birdies coming in that price will look big tomorrow. He currently has seven holes to play, including two par-5's, and is four back of Ferrie, who's in the clubhouse on -11.
09:20- March 26, 2011
At the halfway stage in Spain, tricky doesn't quite cover it. 71 players have made the cut and only seven shots separate them all, with 22 players separated by just four strokes at the top of the leaderboard. The biggest threat in the top-22 has to be Alvaro Quiros but I'm still not convinced this venue suits him and he appeared to get away with it a bit yesterday, making lengthy putts and chipping in.
Nobody's trading in single figures and it isn't surprising, it's impossible to call at this stage. My man Karlberg is still tied for the lead and still finding plenty of greens but he isn't putting great. His chance is a fair one though and I've got to bag one of these monster-priced picks sooner or later. Why not this week?
If I had to back anyone else at this stage I'd probably go for Japan's Tetsuji Hiratsuka who tops the putting stats this week but I'm doing nothing more for now.
Over in the States, Bubba's woeful putting continued but he still managed to shoot under par, albeit only just. He sits on -3 alongside Tiger Woods, six behind Martin Laird's lead and it's very hard to envisage him figuring at the finish unless the flat-stick starts working.
I've ventured into the market again here, backing KJ Choi last night at an average of [11.0]. His faultless 64 yesterday was a far cry from last Friday's effort. I'd backed him from the outset last week at the Transitions Championship, an event he has a fantastic record in, but after opening up with a perfectly respectful 69 he flopped on Friday and missed the cut. What a difference a week makes!
KJ isn't the ruthless closer he once was but I'd fancy he's still the strongest mentally amongst the leaders here. I'm far from convinced by Laird (who incidentally was a pick for me in this last year at [240.0]!) and Levin, alongside Choi and one behind Laird, started to tread water at the end of round two. And the bunch two back on -6 are all worth swerving at this stage...
Steve Marino, Charles Howell and Vaughn Taylor have shocking in-contention records and the classy Hunter Mahan is very hard to catch right and can't possibly warrant support at just [8.0].
11:45- March 25, 2011
With the Open de Andalucía in progress as I write, I'll start with the US PGA Tour event first.
A stiff breeze caused havoc with the majority of the field in round one and some top-class players posted scores that were very hard to envisage before the off. Graeme McDowell wasn't the only man unable to break 80 and only 21 players broke par.
Spencer Levin yet again makes the early running after shooting a remarkable six under par 66 and sooner or later he's going to win one. After losing the Mayakoba Classic to Johnson Wagner in a play-off just a month ago, he led the field at the Honda Classic after day one before fading to tied 14th. Spencer has teed off already in round two, at 11.40 UK time, and with perfect greens to putt on this morning and a three shot lead he justifiably heads the market.
This was the first time in ages that I wasn't in the least bit tempted by Phil Mickelson at a fancy price and he's gone and shown why I'm often prepared to give him yet another chance. He has a habit of finding form, just as the majority are writing him off. He putted very well yesterday and I shall have a close eye on him later and may well get him onside at some point but I do wonder whether a hot putter was masking the rest of his game yesterday.
On the same score as Phil (-2) is Bubba Watson but quite how is a mystery. He must be playing some quite brilliant golf because he's putting like Stevie Wonder. He ranked highly for Greens in Regulation (GIR), one of the key stats for Bay Hill and hit the ball further than anyone else off the tee but had a putting average of 2.077. He three-putted the par-5 4th, missed from inside ten feet for birdie on the 5th and from seven feet on the 6th. He'll need to improve on that no end because all that sort of putting gets you at this level is a weekend off.
Tiger Woods was yet again held back by some appalling driving but showed he's definitely on the up. He bogeyed the last but it was a gutsy display and not many could have scored 73 in those conditions, playing from the rough on nearly every second shot!
I'm not going to do anything more at this stage other than hope Bubba gets his putting boots on later because if he does I'm in with a shout.
The second round is starting to take shape in Spain and Alvaro Quiros is fighting his way back to the fringes of contention, whilst tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez is struggling to make the cut.
I have Jose Manuel Lara currently three off the lead but he's having a fairly disappointing day and for the second Friday running appears to be giving up a good start - though he is making birdies again as I type.
[1000.0] shot Jorge Campillo has done me proud so far and will start his second round this afternoon on -3 - five of the lead but my big hope now is Rikard Karlberg.
The Swede, backed at [300.0], tied for the lead after day one and reading his blog this morning, I just love his attitude. "Driving in the frontseat right now. Will try to get everyone behind me in the backseat after Sunday. GO gogo." How refreshing is that? This man has a real desire to succeed and you can see why he's already a multiple winner on the Asian Tour.
If anything significant happens, I'll post again later. If not, I'll be back in the morning.
Pre-Event Picks
Open de Andalucía
Simon Dyson @ an average of [42.0]
Jose Manuel Lara @ [70.0]
Steve Webster @ [120.0]
James Morrison @ [260.0]
Rikard Karlberg @ an average of [300.0]
Jorge Campillo @ [1000.0]
In-Running bets
Peter Hedblom @ [30.0] - during round three
Marcel Siem @ [65.0] - after round three
Pre-Event Picks
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bubba Watson @ [44.0]
Zach Johnson @ [55.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]
Stephen Ames @ [170.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [290.0]
In Running Bets
KJ Choi - during round two at an average of [11.0]
Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......
An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......
The Race to Dubai heads for Spain this week with Miguel Angel Jimenez hosting proceedings. Whilst in the States, Tiger's back in action and after win number seven at Bay Hill......
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