The Punter's De-Brief: The Open de Andalucía and the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

The Scottish flag draped proudly behind the 17th tee as Laird tees off

“If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who’s in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now.”

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet...

We witnessed a rare Scottish double this weekend, as Paul Lawrie recovered from a dreadful start to record his first success in nine years and Martin Laird somehow recovered from an even worse start to win in Florida. Laird showed great determination in the end but his victory wasn't without a slice of fortune. He traded odds on early on, before drifting right out to double-figures when looking beat.

Five over par for the day and clearly on the ropes, his second shot on the par-5 12th hit the lip of a fairway bunker yet still found the green, from where he made birdie and never looked back. An inch lower and the balls buried and Marino wins. By such small margins titles are decided.

Elsewhere in the world of golf, it was nice to see Kiradech Aphibarnrat win his first Asian Tour title and Brett Wetterich' s long journey back from injury end in success on the Nationwide Tour - the PGA Tour's feeder Tour.

My Bets

With two leaderboards that I felt looked a bit iffy, I quietly fancied my chances going into yesterday but it wasn't to be.

At the Open de Andalucía, pre-event pick Jose Manuel Lara looked to be in just the right spot, tucked in behind the dodgy looking leading pack, but his irons were anything but dialled in and he never ever threatened and eventually finished in a tie for 8th.

It looked a minefield and the only plus was that I treated the whole event with the caution it deserved. My few in-running bets before yesterday are detailed in the Live Golf Blog but I did have one more bet yesterday - a very small wager on Chile's Felipe Aguilar, though I do regret not laying Mark Foster. Remarkably, he hit a low of just [1.3] after only three holes before crumbling to a tie for 4th.

I made a couple of further plays during the final round of the Arnold Palmer, backing both Trevor Immelman, at an average of [65.0], and Justin Rose at [100.0] but my big disappointment was pre-event pick Bubba Watson - more on that later.

Player to Watch

He's not for me, purely because I believe you need to be up with the pace to win the US Masters and I don't think he quite has the nerve for it, but Justin Rose will be a solid selection for many in the lead-up to the year's first Major.

Currently trading at around [36.0], I can see him shortening up over the next ten days. He's in fine fettle, has form at Augusta and may well prove popular in the press. If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who's in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now. And the big plus is that he doesn't play next week so there's no danger of him spoiling your bet by playing pants in Houston.

Player to swerve

For years, and I do mean years, Bubba Watson was on my 'avoid like the plague' list due to his very nervy in-contention play but then he managed to squeeze past old-timers Corey Pavin and Scott Verplank in a play-off at last year's Travelers Championship to record his maiden win.

That effort didn't convince me though, the win had as much to do with Justin Rose's final round collapse (he traded as short as [1.21] on Sunday) as it did Bubba's mental fortitude. With his Dad dying the scenes afterwards were emotional to say the least and there isn't a man alive that could have begrudged him his win, but I'll be honest, at the time I thought it was probably a one-off.

Then remarkably, or so I thought, he found himself in a play-off for the US PGA Championship, were a final hole blunder eventually handed the initiative to Martin Kaymer. Though still not wholly convinced, I was as impressed as I was surprised.

Fast forward to January, and yours truly is sweating on a very decent wager on Phil Mickelson to win the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines but who should deny him the win, in what was the most impressive display of clutch putting and bottle...Bubba. I was convinced.

He was a changed man and one that was surely going to go on to bigger and better things. I'm going to follow this man at decent odds when conditions suit his game I thought. He's now a real competitor with proven bottle...

So, as they say up here around Sheffield way, what the chuff happened yesterday!

That was a pathetic effort from start to finish and my opinion has been swayed back in dramatic fashion. He had admitted to feeling very nervous on Saturday and I can only assume those nerves just got worse on Sunday. As things stand, I have to conclude that in all likelihood the impressive, and boy was it impressive, performance at Torrey Pines was quite possibly a one-off. I very much regret, caution re Bubba is very much advised again going forward.

What have we leant for next year?

If I can get away from my disappointment re Bubba for a moment, which isn't easy, and view the Arnold Palmer objectively, it really was a cracking event. It had the feel of a major and was a remarkably tough test. The bunkers are proper bunkers and if you go in them you can expect to be punished. They certainly cost poor ole Steve Marino the title as he found himself plugged twice late on.

It's a really tough finish. The per-5 16th is the easiest hole on the course but that's the only respite. Although it 'only' ranked as the 6th toughest hole, the par-3 17th is ridiculously tricky and players found it almost impossible to land their ball on the green. Even when they hit the very front the ball just scooted through and either out the back or into the back bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see a notorious Arnold Palmer tweak there because it was a bit daft really. And holes 14, 15, and 18 rank as the three hardest on the course, things can change very fast, as they did this year - Steve Marino was matched at a low of just [1.3] before he played the final five.

Those that suddenly found themselves in the mix thanks in part to the leaders stalling, like Rose, Immelman and Marc Leishman may well recover easily enough but the mental demands put on Laird, Marino, David Toms, Spencer Levin and indeed Bubba over the weekend could leave a mark for some time. That was a tough weekend to say the least.

This week's events are the Trophee Hassan II from Morocco and the Shell Houston Open from Texas. I'll be back tomorrow night with a preview.

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

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The Punter's Live Golf Blog: Open de Andalucía and the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Martin Laird – Aiming for the top at Bay Hill

“Martin Laird entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba’s got a great chance.”

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week....

23:25- March 26, 2011

Rikard Karlberg looked for just a moment as though he might work his way back into the Open de Andalucía but two bogeys in his last three holes of round three ended the slight recovery and any hope I had. And Hedblom was shocking too. He'd made just one bogey all week but managed to add a second pretty much as soon as I'd backed him!

With a round to go Paul Lawrie leads on -12 with Kennie Ferrie and Mark Foster a shot back on -11. The mercurial Johan Edfors is on -9 and then my man Lara sits in a tie for 5th alongside last week's winner Raphael Jacquelin and Chile's Felipe Aguilar on -8. What a rag-tag bunch!

One of the front-three really ought to win but I couldn't put money on any of them. It's interesting to note the wealth of experience up there and I don't wish to belittle any of them, but none of them are safe betting conveyances.

Marcel Siem's arguably even less reliable than any of the above but sitting on -6, I thought he was a fraction big at [65.0], so he's been added. It looks like he and Lara are my only hope so I can't say I'm confident but we'll see.

Over in the States, KJ Choi crashed spectacularly and for the second week in-a-row I was rueing backing someone on the back of a low round. Just like Nick Watney last Sunday, Choi simply couldn't get close to the previous day's performance and has dropped right out of contention. All is not lost though; Bubba Watson sits in 3rd and is only four off the lead with just two men in front of him.

Two clear of Bubba in 2nd is Spencer Levin but I'll be surprised if he has the temperament to win. He really is a wound-up character and his reaction to a poor drive on the 16th hole was hilarious. I've watched it umpteen times and it makes me laugh every time.

Laird is a perfectly fair price at odds against and a level par round should get it done. His final round record's fairly good but I was spooked by his performance the last time he had a chance to win. He entered the final round of the Bob Hope Classic as favourite two months ago but shot a two-over par 74 to plummet from 3rd to 22nd and if he stutters again here Bubba's got a great chance.

The only others that look to have a chance are Steve Marino, alongside Bubba. No thanks. Rickie Fowler, who on -6, could just have things fall right here, but is too short considering he still hasn't won and David Toms. He's also on -6 but hasn't won or even looked like winning, in eons.

I'll be back on Monday with my Tournament De-Brief.

14:35- March 26, 2011

Have to admit I'm very disappointed with Karlberg, thought he'd fare much better today. He's just made the turn in two over par and is plummeting down the leaderboard at a rate of knots.

We very nearly witnessed the first 59 on the European Tour today when Kennie Ferrie very nearly holed his approach shot from the rough on 18 but it missed by inches and he had to settle for a round of 60.

I've just added Peter Hedblom at [30.0]. It's a very, very weak leaderboard and if he can pick up two more birdies coming in that price will look big tomorrow. He currently has seven holes to play, including two par-5's, and is four back of Ferrie, who's in the clubhouse on -11.

09:20- March 26, 2011

At the halfway stage in Spain, tricky doesn't quite cover it. 71 players have made the cut and only seven shots separate them all, with 22 players separated by just four strokes at the top of the leaderboard. The biggest threat in the top-22 has to be Alvaro Quiros but I'm still not convinced this venue suits him and he appeared to get away with it a bit yesterday, making lengthy putts and chipping in.

Nobody's trading in single figures and it isn't surprising, it's impossible to call at this stage. My man Karlberg is still tied for the lead and still finding plenty of greens but he isn't putting great. His chance is a fair one though and I've got to bag one of these monster-priced picks sooner or later. Why not this week?

If I had to back anyone else at this stage I'd probably go for Japan's Tetsuji Hiratsuka who tops the putting stats this week but I'm doing nothing more for now.

Over in the States, Bubba's woeful putting continued but he still managed to shoot under par, albeit only just. He sits on -3 alongside Tiger Woods, six behind Martin Laird's lead and it's very hard to envisage him figuring at the finish unless the flat-stick starts working.

I've ventured into the market again here, backing KJ Choi last night at an average of [11.0]. His faultless 64 yesterday was a far cry from last Friday's effort. I'd backed him from the outset last week at the Transitions Championship, an event he has a fantastic record in, but after opening up with a perfectly respectful 69 he flopped on Friday and missed the cut. What a difference a week makes!

KJ isn't the ruthless closer he once was but I'd fancy he's still the strongest mentally amongst the leaders here. I'm far from convinced by Laird (who incidentally was a pick for me in this last year at [240.0]!) and Levin, alongside Choi and one behind Laird, started to tread water at the end of round two. And the bunch two back on -6 are all worth swerving at this stage...

Steve Marino, Charles Howell and Vaughn Taylor have shocking in-contention records and the classy Hunter Mahan is very hard to catch right and can't possibly warrant support at just [8.0].

11:45- March 25, 2011

With the Open de Andalucía in progress as I write, I'll start with the US PGA Tour event first.

A stiff breeze caused havoc with the majority of the field in round one and some top-class players posted scores that were very hard to envisage before the off. Graeme McDowell wasn't the only man unable to break 80 and only 21 players broke par.

Spencer Levin yet again makes the early running after shooting a remarkable six under par 66 and sooner or later he's going to win one. After losing the Mayakoba Classic to Johnson Wagner in a play-off just a month ago, he led the field at the Honda Classic after day one before fading to tied 14th. Spencer has teed off already in round two, at 11.40 UK time, and with perfect greens to putt on this morning and a three shot lead he justifiably heads the market.

This was the first time in ages that I wasn't in the least bit tempted by Phil Mickelson at a fancy price and he's gone and shown why I'm often prepared to give him yet another chance. He has a habit of finding form, just as the majority are writing him off. He putted very well yesterday and I shall have a close eye on him later and may well get him onside at some point but I do wonder whether a hot putter was masking the rest of his game yesterday.

On the same score as Phil (-2) is Bubba Watson but quite how is a mystery. He must be playing some quite brilliant golf because he's putting like Stevie Wonder. He ranked highly for Greens in Regulation (GIR), one of the key stats for Bay Hill and hit the ball further than anyone else off the tee but had a putting average of 2.077. He three-putted the par-5 4th, missed from inside ten feet for birdie on the 5th and from seven feet on the 6th. He'll need to improve on that no end because all that sort of putting gets you at this level is a weekend off.

Tiger Woods was yet again held back by some appalling driving but showed he's definitely on the up. He bogeyed the last but it was a gutsy display and not many could have scored 73 in those conditions, playing from the rough on nearly every second shot!

I'm not going to do anything more at this stage other than hope Bubba gets his putting boots on later because if he does I'm in with a shout.

The second round is starting to take shape in Spain and Alvaro Quiros is fighting his way back to the fringes of contention, whilst tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez is struggling to make the cut.

I have Jose Manuel Lara currently three off the lead but he's having a fairly disappointing day and for the second Friday running appears to be giving up a good start - though he is making birdies again as I type.

[1000.0] shot Jorge Campillo has done me proud so far and will start his second round this afternoon on -3 - five of the lead but my big hope now is Rikard Karlberg.

The Swede, backed at [300.0], tied for the lead after day one and reading his blog this morning, I just love his attitude. "Driving in the frontseat right now. Will try to get everyone behind me in the backseat after Sunday. GO gogo." How refreshing is that? This man has a real desire to succeed and you can see why he's already a multiple winner on the Asian Tour.

If anything significant happens, I'll post again later. If not, I'll be back in the morning.

Pre-Event Picks

Open de Andalucía

Simon Dyson @ an average of [42.0]
Jose Manuel Lara @ [70.0]
Steve Webster @ [120.0]
James Morrison @ [260.0]
Rikard Karlberg @ an average of [300.0]
Jorge Campillo @ [1000.0]

In-Running bets

Peter Hedblom @ [30.0] - during round three
Marcel Siem @ [65.0] - after round three

Pre-Event Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bubba Watson @ [44.0]
Zach Johnson @ [55.0]
Chad Campbell @ [120.0]
Stephen Ames @ [170.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [290.0]

In Running Bets

KJ Choi - during round two at an average of [11.0]

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

The Race to Dubai heads for Spain this week with Miguel Angel Jimenez hosting proceedings. Whilst in the States, Tiger's back in action and after win number seven at Bay Hill......

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