Sectional Debrief, Kempton, Friday September 6 & Saturday September 7

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Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Wednesday May 8

"What is clear from the sectionals is that Tajheez is quite a bit better than those who chased him home..."

Simon Rowlands returns with his latest sectional analysis...

Regular readers of these Sectional Debriefs will know the score by now: the table below identifies the general run of the races, and sectional rating for the winners of those races, based on the fact that how a horse achieves an overall time affects what that time is. 

The good news for those coming late to the party is that past Sectional Debriefs can be found elsewhere on this site; the bad news is that you have already missed a couple of nice winners - Spillway and Fig Roll - since this series began a few weeks ago!

Kempton's Wednesday evening meeting had a majority of steadily-run (or even slowly-run) races, as shown by the high finishing speed %s and commensurately high sectional mark-ups in the table. The exceptions are the first and last two races: those last two races resulted in decent overall times and even better sectional ratings, but that first race did not.

There is no apparent reason why the Tagalaka time was so modest, for it was not an obvious function of the pace of the race. As a result, the winner goes on the "to oppose" list. Indeed, the whole race is worth viewing with some suspicion. 

Cape Alex ran close to par in winning the 12f handicap (third-placed Time Square went a bit faster than ideal in front) and sectional mark-ups for all the runners are small. This looks solid form, but there are no obvious eye-catchers, in other words.

The 7f minor contest won by Double Your Money is quite a bit more interesting, however. The winner set a decent pace but was given a bit too much rope, and third-placed Kabbaas (86 sectional rating) and fourth-placed Singersongwriter (88 sectional rating) did well given how things unfolded. Singersongwriter (who posted roughly 34.9s final 3f) had a BHA mark of 74 prior to this and is especially interesting. 

The other horse to take from proceedings is Tajheez, the short-priced winner of the 11f handicap. The sectional adjustment does not bridge the gap between his overall time and the time that could be expected of a horse with his ability, but it comes close. What is clear from the sectionals is that Tajheez (roughly 36.0s final 3f) is quite a bit better than those who chased him home. Rating him 6 lb better than the result is realistic, and that could be enough to see him follow up in similar company.  

To Follow: Singersongwriter, Tajheez
To Oppose: Tagalaka 

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Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Monday April 22

Simon Rowlands analyses the sectionals from Monday's meeting on the all-weather at Kempton Park...

Both the potential and the limitations of sectionals taken by hand can be illustrated by the Kempton meeting on Monday April 22. On the one hand, sectionals taken for the leaders and engineered for individual runners at the 3f marker identify the general run of the races and flag up a number of interesting performances. On the other, the unavoidable absence of sectionals for every horse at every furlong almost certainly results in some important information being missed. 

Still, for as long as British Racing prefers to invest in projects other than sectional timing, even diehard sectionalists will have to make do with living in a state of semi-ignorance. 

The most obvious piece of missing information is that for (the appropriately-named) Secret Talent in the 7f maiden. The last 3f sectional shows that the race turned into a sprint, but it does not capture the fact that the winner quickened from the front in tremendous style something like a furlong AFTER the sectional (and yet he won by 7 lengths and the same). 

The mark-up based on last 3f sectional is modest in view of the overall race time, but a very rough estimate of 21.7 sec for the last 2f for the winner would result in a sectional rating of 105, not 79. The likelihood is that Secret Talent is a decidedly useful performer, and that he will rate well into the 100s. But there is a large degree of educated guesswork involved in that from a sectional point of view.

Some observers will tell you that Bright Strike did well to win the 7f handicap "against the pace bias that had been evident throughout the afternoon". This is nonsense and reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the subject. Both pace and position can be modified on a by-race basis and therefore pace and position analysis needs to be conducted on a by-race basis. The only enduring pace bias is that the overall time of an individual running in a non-efficient way will be compromised. 

Bright Strike did well to come from a bit off the pace specific to the race he was running in and deserves to be rated in the region of 5 lb more superior to the placed horses than implied by the bare result. Fourth-placed Excuse To Linger made late headway also and can be rated third-best. 

Shahrazad, Order of Service, Pether's Moon and King Olav were all winners who were leading turning in. In each case, at least one of their rivals did better than they did in time terms from the sectional, but that is not to say any of them was clearly flattered.

Black Truffle (59 sectional rating) comes out best on sectionals in the opener, but only just ahead of Shahrazad in a race run in a decent overall time (given the abilities of the horses concerned); the same can be said of Shearian (72 sectional rating) in Order of Service's race; Pether's Moon comes out best in his race, with the first two more superior to their rivals than the bare result; Mount Abora (67 sectional rating) might have finished closer to King Olav set less to do, but the eased winner won well enough (and in a reasonable enough time) to think that he was comfortably best on the day in any case.    

Foxhaven came from second at the sectional in the first division of the 11f handicap and comes out scarcely better than second or third on sectionals in what was a tactical affair. Midnight Feast came from a few lengths back to take the concluding 7f handicap, with South Cape (66 sectional rating) also worthy of marking up from the bare result. Runner-up Homeward Strut (66 sectional rating) and fourth-placed Mishrif (61 sectional rating) looked to have been slightly favoured by the run of the race. 

To follow: Bright Strike
To oppose: Foxhaven, Homeward Strut 

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The Punter's De-Brief: Steely Streelman bags maiden win

“Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night. “

It's been a losing week for our man but he has no regrets. Read his final thoughts on the week here...

Thomas Aiken shot a superb five under-par 65 to comfortably convert his third round three-shot lead into a three-shot margin victory at the Avantha Masters and longstanding PGA Tour maiden, Kevin Streelman, showed considerable resolve to win the Tampa Bay Championship. Americans have now won all 12 PGA Tour events in 2013.

My Bets
At no stage did I ever look like winning at the Avantha Masters and I eventually lost a few pounds at the eventful Tampa Bay Championship - but only because I was far too dismissive of Streelman.

I'd written in the In-Play Blog how hard it was to hold-on to a lead at Copperhead and given 34 year-old Streelman, who'd started round four in a tie at the top, had never won in getting on for nearly 200 PGA Tour events, his victory caught me out a bit and I failed to profit from a good position.

I got onboard runner-up Boo Weekley in-running at an average of 11.010/1, having first backed him at 18.5n/a after his superb tee-shot on the par 3 15th and having topped-up at 8.07/1 as he played the 18th.

I also backed Justin Leonard @ 9.08/1 and I eventually backed Streelman at 2.1011/10, but all that did was reduce my losses.

Had Streelman failed to pass Boo, who was matched at just a shade over 2.01/1, I'd had a very good week and with hindsight, I obviously should have covered Streelman and/or layed Boo back but I've no regrets at all.

As discussed below, Weekley was very much a value play and I went for it. And I effectively took-on Streelman. It didn't pay-off this time but in the long-run, taking on players looking for their first wins after umpteen starts, usually pays off.

There's often value in the clubhouse
I've written about this before but after yesterday's events in Florida, it's well worth revisiting.

I can't praise Streelman's performance highly enough. Considering some pretty poor past efforts in-contention and bearing in mind that a target had been set by Boo, his two under-par back-nine was a magnificent knock and he deserves every credit, but it scuppered a rare and golden opportunity.

Punters are always over-optimistic about players still out on the course, expecting birdies when in reality, pars are good. The finish to the Copperhead Course is tough and the last three holes, known as the Snake-Pit, always average over-par, so finishing with a flourish and catching someone safely in the clubhouse is very tough.

After he'd posted his -8 score, Weekley's price slowly moved downwards as the realisation of the task set slowly materialised. I took a chance topping-up at 8.07/1 after he'd teed-off on the tough 18th and it nearly backfired when he left himself getting on for six feet for par but once he'd made that putt, for a very long time, his price did nothing but drop - eventually bottoming out at just over 2.01/1.

On tough tracks, those that come from off the pace and post a target are nearly always too big and Boo most certainly was last night.

What have we leant for next year?
At the Avantha Masters, the suspicion before the off was that length off the tee would prove advantageous at Jaypee Greens and so if proved. Aiken ranked 11th for Driving Distance, with runner-up Gaganjeet Bhullar and third-placed Wen-Chong Liang ranking 9th and 4th respectfully. If we return to the venue next year, look again at those that hit it miles off the tee.

There was plenty of money for a few Indians before the off but I fancy they were too short. Bhullar, Jaypee Greens' touring pro representative, finished second but only one other, Himmat Rai, finished inside the top-22.

After a run of South African events, where the locals dominate, it's easy to think that the Indians will follow suit but in reality, they don't have anywhere near the strength in depth or the history of top-class performers as the South Africans do and as a simple rule of thumb, dismissing them in future will probably prove the best way to go.

Aiken was the second South African in-a-row to win the Avantha Masters and it all makes sense. They're used to the grainy greens and they're used to being at the top of their game at this time of the year.

Jesper Parnevik tweeted on Friday that, "Innisbrook is one of the best courses we play all year!! Drives you insane but very fair!!!"

The course is fair but it is tough, really tough, and holding on to a lead is very difficult. If ever there were a week to switch from backing to laying then this is it. The leaderboard changed dramatically from one day to the next and simply laying the leaders between rounds would have put you nicely in-front.

We've a couple of nice events to look forward to this week. Luke Donald travels to Malaysia for the Maybank Malaysian Open and Tiger Woods will be attempting to win his eighth Arnold Palmer Invitational. I'll be back either tomorrow or early on Wednesday with previews of each event.

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Sectional Debrief: Day Three Newmarket July Meeting

Mayson’s success in the Group 1 July Cup took many by surprise, but the evidence of the clock is that he is bordering on high-class...

Simon Rowlands, Timeform's Head of Research and Development, reviews the sectionals from the third and final day of Newmarket's July Meeting...

A substantial amount of rain on what was already just about soft going turned conditions "heavy" for day three, though nowhere near unraceable as some were suggesting. Furthermore, overall and sectional times indicated that conditions deteriorated a negligible amount as the card progressed.

The following are the headline figures from the day, provided by TurfTrax:

• The fastest opening furlong was recorded by Reply (14.61 sec, 30.80 mph from a standing start) in the Group 1 July Cup, in which he finished last of 12.

• The fastest individual furlong was recorded by Ortensia (11.41 sec, 39.44 mph) in the third of the six furlongs of that race. The mare's effort was short-lived and she finished fourth.

• The fastest closing furlong was recorded by Hasopop (14.13 sec, 31.85 mph) in the steadily-run two-year-old conditions stakes which followed the feature event. Hasopop won by seven lengths and eight lengths in a field of three.

• Mayson's success in the Group 1 July Cup took many by surprise, but the evidence of the clock is that he is bordering on high-class, if not quite so good as a face-value interpretation of the result might suggest. He set a good pace after the opening furlong, registering three successive sub-12-second furlongs in the middle of the race, on his way to a good overall time. His last two furlongs sectionals were both faster than any of his rivals'.

• The first furlong of the opening one-mile handicap was remarkably slow (16.25 sec, 27.69 mph), and the horse that set it, Ocean Tempest got back up having quickened to challenge again with a sub-12-second furlong between three furlongs and two furlongs out.

• Olympic Glory had just enough left to hold off Birdman in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes, his final furlong a fairly slow (compared to his overall time) 14.57 sec, raising some doubts about his stamina for still further when conditions are testing.

• Bonnie Brae had as many in front of her as behind her mid-race in the 15-runner Bunbury Cup Handicap but jockey Ryan Moore had judged things well, and she recorded close to optimum sectionals as she overhauled pace-setters Captain Bertie and Captain Ramius, posting the fastest sectionals for the last two furlongs for good measure. Captain Ramius, in particular, probably deserves marking up.

• John Louis made all in the concluding handicap, though sectional analysis shows he was plodding by the end and that his overall time will have suffered by going as fast as he did earlier. This sectional profile - of a leader running his rivals into the ground and holding on for a win in a slowish time - is seen more often over jumps but was also in evidence in Cape Blanco's 2010 Irish Champion Stakes success on the Flat.

Full details of by-furlong individual sectional times for the first two days of the Newmarket July Meeting can be found on the TurfTrax website: http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking-data-julymeeting-2012.html

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The Punter's US Masters De-Brief: Blubbing Bubba bags a biggy

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bubba gets a hug from Ben Crane after his emotional win

“The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine.”

Steve looks back on yet another fantastic Masters tournament. What lessons have we learnt for next year?

It really is quite remarkable how year after year this event produces so much drama and this time around, three shots grabbed the headlines.

First there was Louis Oosthuizen's second to the par five 2nd, which incredibly found the bottom of the cup to propel the South African to the top of the leaderboard. Then there was Phil Mickelson's horror tee-shot on four that ricocheted unluckily off the grandstand and into a virtually unplayable spot to cost him his chance of a fourth Green Jacket. And finally there was a magic moment from Bubba Watson on the second extra hole. Presumable affected by just missing a ten-footer for the title, Bubba smacked his tee-shot on the 10th hole deep into the trees, right of the fairway, from where he hit a 50-yard hook, setting up a birdie opportunity. As it transpired, Oosty failed to make par and Bubba was able to two-putt for the title.

My Bets
They say fortune favours the brave. Well I was brave last night and ill-fortune favoured me. With a substantial wager on Lefty from the start, after much deliberation, my plan was to lay back my stakes and a wee bit more should he go odds on and had Oosthuizen not made that miraculous albatross, he would have done.

With a five-footer for par on the 1st hole, Phil was around [2.3] when Oosty struck. Had the South African not made his astonishing two, and once Phil had safely made the par on the 1st and then found the fairway on the 2nd, he almost certainly would have gone odds on.

And then there were the horrors of the 4th hole. Yes he hit a terrible shot but boy was he unlucky with the outcome. Still, I've no regrets, a couple of freak occurrences robbed me of a profitable tournament but I wouldn't do anything differently given the same set of circumstances. I think it was just bad, bad luck.

Observations and lessons for next year

You need a good start.
Phil Mickelson didn't just lose the event on the 4th hole yesterday, he lost it on Thursday. A fast start at the Masters is imperative. Mistakes will always happen and you need a good start. A cushion if you like. The first four names on the day one leaderboard were Lee Westwood, Louis Oosthuizen, Peter Hanson and Bubba Watson. Mickelson's opening round of 74 left him a mountain to climb.

Who to back in 2013?
Nobody has ever won the Masters having made a triple-bogey, yet Lefty very nearly pulled it off having made two! Add to that his very poor start and it's quite incredible how close he came to winning. Nobody prepares for, or plays, Augusta National better than Phil Mickelson and although the years are ticking by, I still think he has at least one more victory in him.

Lefty apart, as I just think he's so well suited to the test, it may be worth opposing those in the mix this year. Eight players hit the front on day four in 2011 and none of those eight, despite many of them being quite well fancied, featured this year. It could just be a coincidence or there could be something in it. Could players that figure one year, expect too much of themselves, and therefore heap too much pressure on themselves, the following year?

Course experience is vital
With three straight missed cuts, Louis Oosthuizen hardly had course form to boast but he does have the game for Augusta. He's far from the first to suddenly get it and I wouldn't give up on someone just because their previous course form is poor - providing they have the right game.

What skills are needed to win the Green Jacket?
Length is a big advantage - Louis ranked 2nd for Driving Distance and Bubba 4th. And Westwood, Hanson and Mickelson can get it out there too.

Scoring on the par fives is vital. It's all about hanging on elsewhere and making hay at the long holes but yet again, the most important stat is putting...

Bubba is an unusual winner, in that he didn't rank very highly with the putter this week. In fact, his poor performance with the flat-stick when I backed him last time out at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was the only reason I didn't back him here - just to add to my frustrations! Mickelson was the best putter on the week but Hanson and Oosthuizen weren't far behind him, ranking 3rd and 5th respectfully.

In-running angle
The back-nine is where you make your score. Once through the tricky 12th, birdie opportunities are there on almost every hole. The 17th and 18th are tough but not impossible and the last two winners have both made four straight birdies on the back nine. And both may have felt their chance had gone when they did.

Adam Scott looked the winner last year until Charl Schwartzel followed a frustrating run of pars with birdies at each of the last four holes. This time around, Bubba made four off the bat after bogeying the 12th. I just wonder if both players had thought their chances of glory may have passed and as a result they relaxed slightly.

Hole-in-one
Geoff Ogilvy very nearly aced the 16th yesterday. Bo Van Pelt and Adam Scott did. I highlighted this angle before the off and no doubt I shall be doing so again next year.

I'm sure there are plenty of other little snippets and angles in and if anyone has their own, please feel free to comment. Paul gave us a cracker on this year's preview when he posted that every winner, apart from Tiger Woods in 1996, has made the cut the year before they won since Fuzzy Zoeller won here on debut in 1979 - though Louis came very close to blowing that one!

Getting over the Masters hangover isn't going to be too hard this week, we've a pair of cracking events kicking off on Thursday - the Maybank Malaysian Open on the Race to Dubai and the RBC Heritage on the PGA Tour. I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday with previews for each.

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

It's live on TV and it'll make for a pleasant aperitif before the main event but Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, advises caution and the application of a pin! Read his thoughts on Wednesday's Par Three Contest here......

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The Punter's De-Brief: Woods fades as Lefty shines

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson after his fourth Pebble Beach success

“As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable. “

Phil Mickelson wins the AT & T Pebble Beach National as Tiger Woods falters in the mix once more. Read Steve's thoughts on this week's events here...

It all came down to putting at the Dubai Desert Classic - Raphael Cabrera-Bello rolled in the vital ones, particularly for birdie on the 17th, whilst Lee Westwood missed chance after chance and the Spaniard prevailed by one to win his second title, following his win at the Austria Open in 2009.

In the States, Phil Mickelson played some inspired stuff to claim his third AT & T Pebble Beach title in eight years and his fourth in total. For the third week in-a-row on the PGA Tour someone had entered the final round with a substantial lead, only to let it slip. This week it was the turn of Charlie Wi. The Korean four-putted the first green to make double-bogey and was always up against it after that. To his credit, he rallied to claim second place, birdying the last three holes.

My Bets
I entered the weekend with very high hopes in Dubai with both Thomas Bjorn and Martin Kaymer right in the thick of it but by the time they'd played three holes on Sunday I knew I had no chance. In stark contrast, I entered the final round at the AT & T with very little hope of turning the week's fortunes around and then up popped Lefty - backed before the off at [26.0].

Few things in life give me greater pleasure than watching Mickelson in full flow when I've backed him and his eight under par 64 was a joy to watch. There were par saves from 20 feet plus, a tee-shot to within a few feet, an eagle and birdies aplenty. This was vintage Lefty and not for the first time it came from almost nowhere.

I layed plenty of my wager back, at all rates down from [1.88] to [1.01], but it was a tremendous result and one I'll remember for a long time.

Players to swerve
I'd highlighted Lee Westwood's record when he's right in the mix yesterday and it makes for even worse reading today. Incredibly, he's now zero from twelve when he's either tied for the lead, leading by one, or trailing by one, going into the final round. If he's built up a decent lead, like he did recently at both the Thailand Golf Championship and Nedbank Challenge, he's able to coast home but without clear water between himself and the field, he seems to struggle. As already stated, his putting yesterday was dreadful and I fancy nerves have something to do with that and he remains one to treat with caution when bang in-contention on a Sunday.

Only two weeks ago I wrote "There is a slight chance that the ruthless and clinical closer that Woods once was is a thing of the past and he may just be worth taking on at short odds the next time he finds himself in with a good chance. I fancy he's bound to be shorter than he should be." So who did I fancy as the danger at the AT & T with a round to go? Tiger Woods.

Apart from a short spell on Friday, Mickelson hadn't impressed and I fancied the leaders, Wi and Ken Duke might struggle and that Woods looked a fair price at around [3.85]. Mercifully, I didn't back him because he was quite frankly abysmal. Where's the old Tiger gone? As Mickelson was propelling himself up the leaderboard at a rate of knots, Woods was missing putts from a few feet and dropping shots like confetti at a wedding. He seems to have lost that steely nerve and the once invincible now looks vulnerable.

I'm sure those that followed Paul Krishnamurty's advice and layed Tiger in both the top-five and top-ten markets had resigned themselves to paying out but the once mighty Woods was so bad yesterday that his three over par 75 saw him slip from third place to 15th to put his layers in clover.

What have we learnt for next year?
Don't back Rory McIlroy over the weekend in Dubai, a pattern has definitely emerged. In each of the last four years he's started off like a rocket but when he gets to the weekend the rocket starts malfunctioning. Even when he won the event in 2009 there were stumbles over the last two days and he's worth taking on if he starts well again next year. As to why it happens? He often starts to tread water when he hits the front early in tournaments but I think there's more to it than that here. The course changes considerably as the week goes on. The smallest change in wind speeds changes the yardages significantly and the greens vary in speed from one day to the next and I'm not sure he's able to adapt as well as he should. We've all seen what he's capable off in benign conditions but I still have my doubts about him when it's not so easy.

The Race to Dubai moves from the Middle East to India this week with the Avantha Masters, where Cabrera-Bello will be attempting to go back-to-back. Whilst in the States, a first-rate field, including world number one Luke Donald, lines up at Riviera for the Northern Trust Open. I'll be back tomorrow with previews of both events.

Steve's out of the game as they close out the event in Dubai so he's taken a good look at the state of play in California where Tiger looks the man to beat......

Steve runs the rule over this week's US PGA Tour event, what's it going to take to win at Pebble?...

Our man takes a good look at the last leg of the Middle East Swing, where Rory McIlroy's a warm order, but is he value?...

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The Punter's De-Brief: Levin lets it slip

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kyle Stanley – Much happier this week

“Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those.”

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar...

Paul Lawrie won his second Qatar Masters in quite brilliant style yesterday. Having started the day with a one shot lead, he shot a very impressive seven under-par final round to pull clear and win by four. The last time he won in Qatar, in 1999, he went on to win the Open Championship. Could lightening strike twice? He's a [48.0] shot to win at Royal Lytham & St Annes in July.

Over in the States, last week's final round collapse victim, Kyle Stanley, became this week's hero. He relinquished a five-shot lead at the Farmers Insurance Open, losing a three-shot lead on the final hole, but it hasn't taken him long to gain redemption. Spencer Levin had gone into yesterday's final round with a six shot lead but the fiery character was soon struggling and although he made a series of lengthy par saves around the turn, the writing was on the wall and he eventually shot a four over-par 75 to lose by two.

My Bets

The Qatar Masters was a very frustrating tournament. When I first looked at the event, Paul Lawrie was very much on the radar but I really wanted around [80.0] about him. He was most impressive yesterday but that was the first time I'd ever seen him play so well in-contention. He was in form and had great course form but given his very low win ratio, I just couldn't justify taking around [60.0] about him - though I obviously regret not doing so now! And even before the final round I felt he was the most likely winner but I still didn't get him onside. Oh well.

The WM Phoenix Open worked out much better though and thanks to Spencer Levin's collapse and pre-event pick, Ben Crane's strong challenge, I managed to make a profit on the week.

When Levin poured in par saves at the 9th and 10th holes from over ten feet I wondered whether he might be able to rally and hang on but he didn't and given I'd layed Levin during round three, prior to round four, and yet again during round four at heavy odds on, Stanley's win was a great result, though Crane, who finished a shot shy of Stanley in second place, would have been far better.

I'd backed ten before the off and Crane was by far the best of them. He came out of the blocks like a scalded cat yesterday and was four under par through as many holes but he played his next eight in one over. I did manage to lay a bit back at [6.6] but I was certainly shouting him on at the end.

Players to watch

Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those. I thought he looked impressive at the Farmers for much of the weekend and felt he was unlucky to get into so much trouble at the last. Although I wanted Crane, I couldn't help but enjoy watching Stanley get his maiden win so soon after last week's debacle and I can see him winning again soon.

Players to swerve

Nicolas Colsaerts was again poor in the mix, shooting level par in the easy conditions and putting poorly.

Five under when playing in the final group to finish tied second looks like a very solid effort at first glance but I'd still be a bit wary of Peter Hanson in-contention. He was pedestrian early on, paring the first seven holes, and he played the last five holes in four under, once his chance was well and truly gone.

Whilst in the States, the big names that were supposed to put pressure on Levin were Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson. Playing in the final three-ball alongside Levin, both men failed to put an ounce of pressure on and Webb, in-particular, could be one not to bother with too often. The problem with Simpson is that he's very consistent and he'll head many a market in the near future but he reminds me a bit of Matt Kuchar in that he'll bob around the leaderboard on plenty of occasions without winning often. I'm not saying he won't win but I don't think he's likely to be any value to do so anytime soon.

This week's two events are the Dubai Desert Classic and the A T & T Pebble Beach National and I'll be back tomorrow with previews for each.

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

Our man takes it easy from the get-go with just the ten picks! What will it take to win the W M Phoenix Open? See what Steve thinks here......

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

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The Punter's De-Brief: The BMW International and the Travelers Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 27 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Pablo Larrazabal – The deserved winner of the BMW International

"Punters need to remember the four bogeys Garcia made in five holes. In short, he blew it... again. It’s great to see El Nino returning to form but on this evidence, he’s still going to find it hard to cross the line."

For the second time in three weeks our man just misses out on a monster-priced winner in Europe...

Pablo Larrazabal eventually claimed the BMW International title after a lengthy play-off with compatriot Sergio Garcia. It took five holes and a three-putt by Sergio on the 18th hole to separate the pair. Both have now secured a place in next month's Open Championship and because Martin Kaymer only finished in a tie for 18th, Rory McIlroy moves up a place to third in the world rankings.

At the Travelers Championship, Fredrik Jacobson finally won on the U S Tour. Having won three titles in Europe, the Swede joined the PGA Tour in 2003 and this was his 189th attempt to break his duck.

My Bets

I never got close to backing the winner at the Travelers and my final in-running play of the week, on Hunter Mahan, pretty much summed the event up for me. Hunter has an impressive bank of form at TPC River Highlands but he put in a woeful display yesterday, making just one birdie on his way to a desperately disappointing 72. The 2011 Travelers Championship is an event to forget, and quickly!

Having came close to a big win on a big-priced pick in Gary Boyd at the Italian Open two weeks ago, it was another case of close but no cigar again this week, this time with George Coetzee - backed at [290.0] before the off.

George didn't play terribly yesterday but it was a frustrating day. He missed a few lengthy putts by millimetres and a great chance to get within one of the lead on the 14th, when he missed form around six feet for birdie on what is the hardest hole on the course. Had he made that, I may well have managed to get some profit out of my modest wager but it wasn't to be and he eventually missed out on the play-off by just two shots.

Player to watch

Ross Fisher came into the event in only fair form and he started very slowly, failing to break 70 in either of his first two rounds, but he still managed to climb up into the top-ten. He finished runner-up last year, obviously enjoys the venue, and he'll be on the shortlist next year for sure.

Player to swerve

At the risk of repeating myself and for the benefit of those that didn't see any of yesterday's final round, my player to swerve this week has to be Sergio Garcia...again.

The market loves Sergio but caution is advised in no uncertain terms. After a steady start, he went on a stunning run from the 6th hole -shooting three birdies and two eagles in a six hole stretch. He'd seemingly taken control of the tournament and was matched at just [1.25] but it all went pear-shaped after that.

He's quite rightly drawing positives from his up-and-down for par on 17 and birdie up the last to get into the play-off but us punters need to remember the four bogeys he made in the five holes before then. In short, he blew it... again. It's great to see El Nino returning to form but on this evidence, he's still going to find it hard to cross the line.

What have we learnt for next year?

I'd written in my preview for the BMW International that Golfclub München Eichenried was a generous venue where scoring is always low but with no particular stats standing out, sighting Driving Accuracy as arguable just about the most important. Given that only Martin Wiegele hit more fairways from the tee than Larrazabal this week, that argument has been borne out.

As Sergio showed with his spectacular little run yesterday, birdies and eagles are out there in abundance but you need to be attacking the greens from the fairway. All four par-5's are reachable in two, but not from the rough. Having watched Coetzee closely this week, it was his inaccuracy from the tee that cost him. Ranked 55th for that stat he repeatedly failed to find the fairway on the par-5's and every time he did fail, he made par at best. Whenever he found the short grass with the big stick he made birdie at least.

There's another two great events to enjoy this week, with Bubba Watson making an appearance on the European Tour at the Open de France and there's a strong field lining-up across the pond at the AT & T National. I'll be back tomorrow, or on Wednesday morning, with a preview of both events.

Steve hasn't given up hope of a monster win in Germany, as he continues to hunt out the winner in the Connecticut......

Our man looks to the young guns in Germany and the veterans in Connecticut at this week's two events......

Awesome Rory delivers in style but where was the American challenge again?...

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Open de Andalucía and the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

The Scottish flag draped proudly behind the 17th tee as Laird tees off

“If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who’s in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now.”

It's not been a great week for our man, as both round three leaders hang on to win but Steve's looking forward to Augusta now, where Rose may just be a value bet...

We witnessed a rare Scottish double this weekend, as Paul Lawrie recovered from a dreadful start to record his first success in nine years and Martin Laird somehow recovered from an even worse start to win in Florida. Laird showed great determination in the end but his victory wasn't without a slice of fortune. He traded odds on early on, before drifting right out to double-figures when looking beat.

Five over par for the day and clearly on the ropes, his second shot on the par-5 12th hit the lip of a fairway bunker yet still found the green, from where he made birdie and never looked back. An inch lower and the balls buried and Marino wins. By such small margins titles are decided.

Elsewhere in the world of golf, it was nice to see Kiradech Aphibarnrat win his first Asian Tour title and Brett Wetterich' s long journey back from injury end in success on the Nationwide Tour - the PGA Tour's feeder Tour.

My Bets

With two leaderboards that I felt looked a bit iffy, I quietly fancied my chances going into yesterday but it wasn't to be.

At the Open de Andalucía, pre-event pick Jose Manuel Lara looked to be in just the right spot, tucked in behind the dodgy looking leading pack, but his irons were anything but dialled in and he never ever threatened and eventually finished in a tie for 8th.

It looked a minefield and the only plus was that I treated the whole event with the caution it deserved. My few in-running bets before yesterday are detailed in the Live Golf Blog but I did have one more bet yesterday - a very small wager on Chile's Felipe Aguilar, though I do regret not laying Mark Foster. Remarkably, he hit a low of just [1.3] after only three holes before crumbling to a tie for 4th.

I made a couple of further plays during the final round of the Arnold Palmer, backing both Trevor Immelman, at an average of [65.0], and Justin Rose at [100.0] but my big disappointment was pre-event pick Bubba Watson - more on that later.

Player to Watch

He's not for me, purely because I believe you need to be up with the pace to win the US Masters and I don't think he quite has the nerve for it, but Justin Rose will be a solid selection for many in the lead-up to the year's first Major.

Currently trading at around [36.0], I can see him shortening up over the next ten days. He's in fine fettle, has form at Augusta and may well prove popular in the press. If you fancy backing a Brit to cheer on, who's in great heart and could just pull off a biggy, there are worse bets than Justin for the US Masters right now. And the big plus is that he doesn't play next week so there's no danger of him spoiling your bet by playing pants in Houston.

Player to swerve

For years, and I do mean years, Bubba Watson was on my 'avoid like the plague' list due to his very nervy in-contention play but then he managed to squeeze past old-timers Corey Pavin and Scott Verplank in a play-off at last year's Travelers Championship to record his maiden win.

That effort didn't convince me though, the win had as much to do with Justin Rose's final round collapse (he traded as short as [1.21] on Sunday) as it did Bubba's mental fortitude. With his Dad dying the scenes afterwards were emotional to say the least and there isn't a man alive that could have begrudged him his win, but I'll be honest, at the time I thought it was probably a one-off.

Then remarkably, or so I thought, he found himself in a play-off for the US PGA Championship, were a final hole blunder eventually handed the initiative to Martin Kaymer. Though still not wholly convinced, I was as impressed as I was surprised.

Fast forward to January, and yours truly is sweating on a very decent wager on Phil Mickelson to win the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines but who should deny him the win, in what was the most impressive display of clutch putting and bottle...Bubba. I was convinced.

He was a changed man and one that was surely going to go on to bigger and better things. I'm going to follow this man at decent odds when conditions suit his game I thought. He's now a real competitor with proven bottle...

So, as they say up here around Sheffield way, what the chuff happened yesterday!

That was a pathetic effort from start to finish and my opinion has been swayed back in dramatic fashion. He had admitted to feeling very nervous on Saturday and I can only assume those nerves just got worse on Sunday. As things stand, I have to conclude that in all likelihood the impressive, and boy was it impressive, performance at Torrey Pines was quite possibly a one-off. I very much regret, caution re Bubba is very much advised again going forward.

What have we leant for next year?

If I can get away from my disappointment re Bubba for a moment, which isn't easy, and view the Arnold Palmer objectively, it really was a cracking event. It had the feel of a major and was a remarkably tough test. The bunkers are proper bunkers and if you go in them you can expect to be punished. They certainly cost poor ole Steve Marino the title as he found himself plugged twice late on.

It's a really tough finish. The per-5 16th is the easiest hole on the course but that's the only respite. Although it 'only' ranked as the 6th toughest hole, the par-3 17th is ridiculously tricky and players found it almost impossible to land their ball on the green. Even when they hit the very front the ball just scooted through and either out the back or into the back bunker. I wouldn't be surprised to see a notorious Arnold Palmer tweak there because it was a bit daft really. And holes 14, 15, and 18 rank as the three hardest on the course, things can change very fast, as they did this year - Steve Marino was matched at a low of just [1.3] before he played the final five.

Those that suddenly found themselves in the mix thanks in part to the leaders stalling, like Rose, Immelman and Marc Leishman may well recover easily enough but the mental demands put on Laird, Marino, David Toms, Spencer Levin and indeed Bubba over the weekend could leave a mark for some time. That was a tough weekend to say the least.

This week's events are the Trophee Hassan II from Morocco and the Shell Houston Open from Texas. I'll be back tomorrow night with a preview.

Steve's in-running plays haven't exactly shone and Karlberg's flopped but Lara and Bubba could yet save the week.......

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Sicilian Open and the Transitions Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gutsy Gary Woodland – The latest big-priced winner in the States

"Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight!"

There's nothing but disappointment to report this week as Lara comes up short and Woodland wins without being backed...

England's Anthony Wall twice drew level with Raphael Jacquelin this morning at the weather-delayed Sicilian Open but a double-bogey six on the penultimate hole eventually led to a French win. Whilst in the States, Gary Woodland came out on top after a titanic battle of the rookies at the Transitions Championship.

My Bets

Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight. A week ago, Troy Matteson and Stephen Ames, backed at [120.0] and [55.0] respectfully, finished 2nd and 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open and that followed YE Yang's runner-up finish at the Honda Classic at [55.0]. But the real boot in the spherical objects was Gary Woodland's tenacious victory in Florida. I'd put him up as a player to watch in my Honda Classic De-Brief but I didn't have a penny on this week.

The truth is I did look, having backed the other two players highlighted in the Honda de-Brief, but I felt he wasn't quite a big enough price (at [120.0]!) before the off. I was waiting for a slightly lower profile event where his length would be a bigger advantage. I do regret not backing him in-running though...

I felt that the leaderboard was littered with players I'd want to be against but I chose Nick Watney as the man to come out on top with a round to go. Unfortunately Watney was awful, but with the benefit of hindsight it probably wasn't a surprise. It's hard to back up a low round (he'd shot a six under par 65 on Saturday) and it's even harder to win back-to-back events.

My only in-running bet not detailed in the Live Golf Blog was an all too small lay on Lara yesterday at an average of [6.6]. The Spaniard put in a bit of a charge yesterday and possibly wasn't suited by having to finish off this morning. As bad light halted play, he had momentum of sorts and Jacquelin finally looked to be showing some nerves. Quite how he even found his tee-ball, let alone was able to play it, on the par 5 12th is beyond me. It looked as dead as a dodo in the trees but in the darkening dusk the spotters did their job admirably and he was able to hack it back to the fairway. He eventually missed a short par putt but he'd had a result and I'm pretty sure he was more than happy to stop at that point.

Trailing by two from Jacquelin and one from Wall, my man Lara had just three holes to play this morning and traded at around [11.0] overnight. I took the incorrect decision to let the bet roll and his failure to birdie the par 5 16th had already sealed his fate before he messed up the last hole.

Players to swerve

It's hard to envisage Anthony Wall winning again and one of my numerous regrets this week was not laying him on Saturday when he very nearly went odds on. Jacquelin's not one to put too much faith in either but he was able to comfortably hold Wall at bay.

Anyone reading this could argue that Lara was no better in the mix this week and they'd have a point - it was especially disappointing that he shot such a poor 2nd round when holding the lead, but the difference is price. Lara, who has managed to get his head in front twice on Tour, is nearly always a monster price. The same cannot be said of Wall.

Brendon De Jonge is some talent but is he ever going to win? He's been pretty wobbly in the past whenever a chance has presented itself and he was woeful yesterday, bogeying four of the last seven holes. As with Wall, I also regret not laying De Jonge. He also nearly went odds on in-running yet finished up getting beat by five!

What have we learnt for next week?

Don't be afraid to back an outsider. What a year we're having in the States. WGC events aside, the last 12 winners on the US PGA Tour - a run that stretches right back to last October, have all been matched at a triple-figure price before the off. And this week was even more bizarre - the first four home were all matched at odds of well over [100.0] and of the top-ten, only Martin Laird and Justin Rose traded in double-figures before the off.

With the old guard failing and the new 'names' stalling, there's absolutely no reason for this trend to halt any time soon. Big-priced winners are not a rarity, they're now the norm.

Louis Oosthuizen returns to Spain this week to defend his Open de Andalucia title and Tiger Woods returns to Bay Hill in an attempt to get his career back on track with a 7th Arnold Palmer Invitational win. I'll be back tomorrow evening, or on Wednesday morning, with a preview of both events.

Jacquelin and Rose look poised for success but does our man fancy their chances?...

With a poor field at a new venue, and with the distraction of the Cheltenham Festival, selections are sparse in Europe but our man's gone mad in Florida, where he's picked out a plethora of picks......

Troy falls short in Puerto Rico but Watney redeems all with an impressive putting display at Doral......

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Points and Murray after yesterday’s win

“Even after this weekend’s dreadful flop from the front Sky TV’s pundits were describing Rory McIlroy in glowing terms. He simply hasn’t developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.”

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T.....

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again must be Alvaro Quiros' mantra. Having traded odds on in the 2010 Dubai Desert Classic, and having looked likely to catch Thomas Bjorn last week in Qatar, before a late wobble put pay to his charge, the flamboyant Spaniard finally got his just deserts in the desert when he came from a mile back over the weekend to win at the Emirates.

Whilst in the States, Darren Andrew Points, otherwise known as D.A Points , playing with the hugely irritating Bill Murray, chipped in for eagle on the hardest hole on the course (the 14th) and then kept his nerve to take his first US PGA Tour title, to become the sixth winner of the 2011 season and the 6th straight winner at a triple-figure price. Murray's inane buffoonery made this Pro-Am unwatchable for the first three days but it helped Points stay calm yesterday.

My Bets

Quiros was my main pick in Dubai so it's been a great week and after a couple of poor weeks it was great to get back on track for the year. As always, my in-running plays up until the start of play last night are detailed in the Live Golf Blog.

I wasn't going to get involved last night but as round four progressed I couldn't help myself, but I'm glad I did. I started off by backing Phil Mickelson, who I already had onside from the off but when he closed to within three of the lead with six to play I thought he was too big at [20.0] so I topped up. I layed my bet back at [14.0] five minutes later so all I'd effectively done was boost any potential winnings. Winnings that didn't materialise! He made bogey at the treacherous par five 14th and that was that.

The event looked to involve just three players after that, Steve Marino, whose substantial halfway lead was eroding fast, Hunter Mahan, who had started very fast - playing the front nine in five under par and eventual winner D.A Points - with the latter trading far bigger than the two former. I couldn't see why at all, I didn't fancy the already wobbling Marino, with whom Points was tied with at the time, and I'm far from a huge Mahan fan either. [5.7] looked more than fair to me so I backed him, albeit very modestly. I layed the stake back at [2.02] and it was far from a big win but it was enough to cover all my stakes on the event so it finished the weekend off nicely.

Player to follow

As stated, I'm no Hunter Mahan fan but I spent most of last night cursing the fact I'd not backed him. Strangely Hunter has never led after three rounds but he's been within two of the lead nine times. He managed to muscle past the previously flaky Justin Rose at the 2007 Travelers Championship but the rest of the time he's been poor. On the last four occasions he's been bang there on a Sunday he's gone backwards and rapidly. From one back to six back (at the Farmers Insurance last month), one back to four back, two back to nine back! And two back to four back.

Contrast that with his other two PGA Tour wins, when he came from three back to win by two at last year's Bridgestone Invitational and from four back to win in Phoenix a few months earlier. And he also came close at last year's AT & T National in July, when he came from six back to lose by just one.

Taking on Hunter when he's right on the pace with a round to go but backing him when he's a bit further back seems to be the way to go and given how weak the round three leaderboard was here, that was very nearly a good chance missed last night and I was relieved he didn't win.

Player to swerve

Change the record Steve!

It has to be young Rory McIlroy again though. He's so well supported in the market and it's not really surprising. Even after this weekend's dreadful flop from the front Sky TV's pundits were describing him in glowing terms. He simply hasn't developed the mettle needed to see out tournaments properly though and his putting really does need to improve.

I know he's won twice but the first time he nearly threw away a six shot lead and the second victory came courtesy of a miraculous weekend finish at the Wachovia. In contention he's still woeful and remains one to treat with caution.

This week's Race to Dubai event is the Avantha Masters in India and on the US PGA Tour a stellar field will assemble for the Northern Trust Open. I'll preview both, either tomorrow night or on Wednesday morning.

Quiros pulls of the most unlikely of wins in Dubai and Bill Murray points D A to victory at the AT & T........

Alvaro puts the Punter through the mill but it was all worth it in the end........

Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cheesehead Mark Wilson enjoys a great 24 hours

“Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away.”

It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!

Thomas Bjorn held his nerve and putted superbly to hold off the field and take the Qatar Masters yesterday. Whilst in the States, Mark Wilson had what must go down as the best 24 hours of his life. His beloved Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl yesterday, before he returned to TPC Scottsdale today to clinch the WM Phoenix Open, beating Jason Duffner in a play-off.

My Bets

All my bets are detailed in this week's Live Golf Blog and it's not been a great week. The only thing that isn't listed there is my lay back of my bet on Phil Mickelson to win the Masters. He spooked me yesterday and I can see him drifting a bit if he doesn't get his act together next week, so I've dumped my bet back at the same price I took - [8.8].

Alvaro Quiros very nearly pulled off a decent gamble but stuttered at just the wrong time and Mark Wilson was winning the Phoenix Open 12 months too late! Amazingly, I ignored him this time around, having backed him before the off last year at a humongous [350.0], when he led at halfway before dropping tamely away- a painful pair of results.

All I can do is take a deep breath and move on....

Player to follow

Quiros was out of form last year but still finished 2nd, and playing in atrocious conditions this year, he was five over par through 15 holes on Thursday, and yet still managed 2nd again. He'll be a strong fancy again next year as I can't believe when his career is over and done he'll just have the 2009 Qatar Masters title to his name. Doha is so well suited to his game I can see him winning this title several times.

There will be plenty of punters that don't agree with my assessment after his finish yesterday. The missed par putt on 15 was terrible and his decision to take a wedge off the 17th tee mindboggling, but those sort of things are always possible with Quiros and as a backer you know it's factored into the price and you just have to accept it. Some would say he choked, and maybe they're right but for me he didn't. He'll still scoop up titles each year and often at a value price.

He also traded odds on last year in this week's event - the Dubai Desert Classic, and it may not be very long at all before he gains compensation for yesterday's near miss.

Players to swerve

There will be plenty of punters disappointed with Mickelson's pathetic effort this week as well and I can't pretend I wasn't one of them but like Quiros, it's all there before you and when you pay your money you take your chance. Lefty's been liable to go from brilliant to awful for years now and he's not going to change now. This game is all about price though and like Quiros, the negative aspect of Lefty's game often leads to him being over-priced. The same can't be said about short-priced American young guns Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler....

Johnson started very well in Phoenix, was matched at just [3.5] but then, yet again, went AWOL. It's a year to the day since I first started to wonder about Dustin's in-contention disposition when he gave up a great chance to win the Northern Trust Open. That dodgy effort was enough to put me off the following week when he scrambled home in most unconvincing fashion at the AT & T (which he defends again this week). He then went on to famously blow a considerable lead at the same venue at the US Open. He did manage another win last year, at the BMW Championship, but that was largely thanks to Paul Casey's choke and he appears to be getting worse in the mix.

As for Fowler, he was very in-and-out this week and that illusive first career win appears to be sliding further away. Both players are amongst the very, very best in the world and only a fool would say they weren't and that they won't win plenty of titles, but will they win as often as their prices suggest? I suspect not.

What have we learnt for next year?

Doha GC really is a course for a certain type of horse, as the saying sort of goes, and this year's leaderboard was again littered with the usual Qatar suspects. Recent past winners Robert Karlsson, Alvaro Quiros and Retief Goosen all contended, and even out of form past winners Paul Lawrie and Darren Fichardt showed up for a while. Thomas Bjorn didn't have sparkling form at Doha before this week, but he'd finished in the top-ten there a couple of times previously. In contrast, the likes of Martin Kaymer and Ian Poulter just can't seem to take to the place. Stick to the course form guys again next year.

With wind often an issue the draw is very important. Those with an afternoon start on day one this year were severely handicapped and I have to wonder how much worse Bjorn's first round score would have been (he shot a two over 74 with a morning start), had he played in the worsening afternoon winds.

I'll be back tomorrow or on Wednesday morning with a preview of this week's two events - The Dubai Desert Classic and the AT & T Pebble Beach.

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Volvo Golf Champions and the Farmers Insurance Open

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bubba Watson – The deserved winner of the Farmers insurance Open

“Bubba had gone to bed on Saturday knowing he was right in the heat of battle. He was presented with the lead after just three holes and he never looked back – attacking all day and although it grieves me and my pocket to say so, he was the worthy winner.”

It's been a poor week for our man but there's plenty of praise for the man that ruined his week...

Paul Casey made a terrific up-and-down on the final hole in Bahrain to edge out Peter Hanson and Miguel-Angel Jimenez and to become the latest in a string of punter friendly winners on the Race to Dubai.

Whilst in the States, Bubba Watson became the 4th triple-figure priced winner in-a-row on the PGA Tour in 2011. And if Casey's up-and-down on 18 was terrific, Bubba's on his final hole last night was miraculous.

My Bets

All my in-running plays up until Sunday night are detailed in my Live Golf Blog.

I assumed that someone had been on the sauce on Saturday night when I saw that my ambitious plays on Francesco Molinari and Matteo Manassero were matched at 3.53 am on Sunday morning but whoever it was that took my wagers had little need for concern. The Italian pair soon followed all my other wagers in Bahrain and played particularly poorly. Both were out of the equation by about the 5th hole - it was time to put the spade down and stop digging.

Having lost on the European event I wanted a good night in the States and with both Phil Mickelson and Anthony Kim onside with a round to go, I wasn't without a chance.

Having had a fairly decent bet on Tiger Woods from the start at just [4.0] my outlay for the week had been higher than normal and my plan was to lay Lefty back for all my weeks stakes, should he go odds on, and I'd resigned myself to a very bad week if he didn't. Well he didn't - the lowest he traded at was [2.10] but mercifully I ditched the plan after Mickelson had played just two shots!

When he hit the green on the 1st, as his playing partners were making a mess of the hole, I layed back half of the week's stakes at [2.18]. Had he made his birdie putt there, I'd have layed back the other half at odds on and there were other moments when he could have gone odds on too - when his eagle putt lipped out on 13 for example. But he didn't and I'm thankfully I was sensible enough to have layed what I did, when I did.

So it's been a bad week, but it's not been horrendous and after the great start I've had to 2011 I'm not about to start moaning.

Player to watch

I can't praise Bubba Watson highly enough. When I surveyed the leaderboard with a round to go I felt if Mickelson broke 70 he'd win, and I imagine he thought along the same lines, but then, like me, I doubt he could have expected such an immense display from Bubba.

The man was a gibbering wreck whenever he found himself in contention right up until he managed to get over the line at the Travelers Championship last June. There then followed a terrific performance at the US PGA Championship, when Martin Kaymer beat him in a play-off and now this.

It's ever so slightly galling to see him win at such a big price, given he had perfectly decent form at this event and that I'd backed him first time up this year at [50.0], when I wrote in my preview "I think something finally clicked with this truly talented and gifted lefty last year and I think the market is still underestimating him."

The frustration of him beating Mickelson rubbed salt into the wound but I can only sing his praises. He made a very brave par save at the penultimate hole from 10 feet and his up-and-down at the last was amazing. After his approach shot had found a really tough lie in the bunker I felt a five was the best score available and that six was definitely more likely than a birdie four, but no. A quite brilliant bunker shot left him 12 feet from the hole, from where he dribbled it in to claim the title.

He had gone to bed on Saturday knowing he was right in the heat of battle. He was presented with the lead after just three holes and he never looked back - attacking all day and although it grieves me and my pocket to say so, he was the worthy winner. And if this was a sign of what's to come, there'll be many more to follow.

Player to swerve

No need to waffle here, two words required, Tiger Woods.

What have we learnt for next year?

I still can't decide whether accuracy over power is what's required at the new Montgomerie course - used for the Volvo Golf Champions. Off the tee, I tend to think you can get away with a degree of inaccuracy and that the big-hitters have an advantage over the shorter fairway finders.

Paul Casey ranked just 52nd for GIR (Greens in Regulation) but I still fancy accurate iron-play is what will prove to be the best asset here over time. The greens are tricky in the extreme and not just finding the green but finding the right part of the green will prove vital here over the years.

And finally, I highlighted the hole averages in my Live Golf Blog on Thursday and it's worth reiterating. The run of 6 holes from 9 to 14 is very much the scoring section of the course and the finish is tough here. Players starting on the 10th hole next year are much more likely to start well, especially if they have a morning tee-time.

This week's events are the Qatar Masters and the WM Phoenix Open. I'll back tomorrow or early on Wednesday with my preview.

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