The Punter's De-Brief: Levin lets it slip

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kyle Stanley – Much happier this week

“Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those.”

Pre-event pick Ben Crane comes up a shot shy but Steve was still happy to see Kyle Stanley win in Phoenix and he couldn't have been more impressed by Paul Lawrie's success in Qatar...

Paul Lawrie won his second Qatar Masters in quite brilliant style yesterday. Having started the day with a one shot lead, he shot a very impressive seven under-par final round to pull clear and win by four. The last time he won in Qatar, in 1999, he went on to win the Open Championship. Could lightening strike twice? He's a [48.0] shot to win at Royal Lytham & St Annes in July.

Over in the States, last week's final round collapse victim, Kyle Stanley, became this week's hero. He relinquished a five-shot lead at the Farmers Insurance Open, losing a three-shot lead on the final hole, but it hasn't taken him long to gain redemption. Spencer Levin had gone into yesterday's final round with a six shot lead but the fiery character was soon struggling and although he made a series of lengthy par saves around the turn, the writing was on the wall and he eventually shot a four over-par 75 to lose by two.

My Bets

The Qatar Masters was a very frustrating tournament. When I first looked at the event, Paul Lawrie was very much on the radar but I really wanted around [80.0] about him. He was most impressive yesterday but that was the first time I'd ever seen him play so well in-contention. He was in form and had great course form but given his very low win ratio, I just couldn't justify taking around [60.0] about him - though I obviously regret not doing so now! And even before the final round I felt he was the most likely winner but I still didn't get him onside. Oh well.

The WM Phoenix Open worked out much better though and thanks to Spencer Levin's collapse and pre-event pick, Ben Crane's strong challenge, I managed to make a profit on the week.

When Levin poured in par saves at the 9th and 10th holes from over ten feet I wondered whether he might be able to rally and hang on but he didn't and given I'd layed Levin during round three, prior to round four, and yet again during round four at heavy odds on, Stanley's win was a great result, though Crane, who finished a shot shy of Stanley in second place, would have been far better.

I'd backed ten before the off and Crane was by far the best of them. He came out of the blocks like a scalded cat yesterday and was four under par through as many holes but he played his next eight in one over. I did manage to lay a bit back at [6.6] but I was certainly shouting him on at the end.

Players to watch

Very occasionally someone bursts onto the scene that looks the real deal and Kyle Stanley is most definitely one of those. I thought he looked impressive at the Farmers for much of the weekend and felt he was unlucky to get into so much trouble at the last. Although I wanted Crane, I couldn't help but enjoy watching Stanley get his maiden win so soon after last week's debacle and I can see him winning again soon.

Players to swerve

Nicolas Colsaerts was again poor in the mix, shooting level par in the easy conditions and putting poorly.

Five under when playing in the final group to finish tied second looks like a very solid effort at first glance but I'd still be a bit wary of Peter Hanson in-contention. He was pedestrian early on, paring the first seven holes, and he played the last five holes in four under, once his chance was well and truly gone.

Whilst in the States, the big names that were supposed to put pressure on Levin were Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson. Playing in the final three-ball alongside Levin, both men failed to put an ounce of pressure on and Webb, in-particular, could be one not to bother with too often. The problem with Simpson is that he's very consistent and he'll head many a market in the near future but he reminds me a bit of Matt Kuchar in that he'll bob around the leaderboard on plenty of occasions without winning often. I'm not saying he won't win but I don't think he's likely to be any value to do so anytime soon.

This week's two events are the Dubai Desert Classic and the A T & T Pebble Beach National and I'll be back tomorrow with previews for each.

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader......

Our man takes it easy from the get-go with just the ten picks! What will it take to win the W M Phoenix Open? See what Steve thinks here......

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Can Levin hang on ?

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Spencer Levin – Can he finish the job off?

"Those taking [1.35] about the leader now are braver punters than me."

Steve takes a look at the state of play in Qatar, where he fancies a low round from someone might just nick it. And in the States, there's a warning for anyone tempted by the current leader...

17.40 - February 5, 2012

Refusing to get too down with events in Qatar, I've spent most of the day playing in the snow with the kids. Mercifully makes a golf result seem a little irrelevant.

None of the picks I made with a round to go performed at all this morning and it was soon apparent that it would all end in tears - especially as Paul Lawrie, who won with ease, was one of the first I considered this week. Oh well.

At the WM Phoenix Open, I couldn't resist laying the leader, Spencer Levin, in-running last night but I wish I hadn't. I'm against him at a shade over [1.5] now after laying him again today. Six shots is a massive lead, but the classy looking Kyle Stanley gave up a seven shot lead with nine to play last week and Levin definitely looks suspect. Those taking [1.35] about the leader now are braver punters than me.

14.35 - February 4, 2012

With just a round to go, the Qatar Masters is set up perfectly for an exciting finale. Paul Lawrie, on -8, leads Nicolas Colsaerts by one, with Peter Hanson and Ricardo Gonzalez tied for third on -6. Last minute pre-event pick, James Kingston, and Simon Khan are on -5 and there's a host of players on -4 and -3, and believe me, those that trail Lawrie by four and five shots are most definitely still in this.

The wind is due to drop tomorrow and all of a sudden, low scores will be far more attainable. The winner could well come from off the pace and it wouldn't be the first time that's happened here. In 2005, Ernie Els came from five back and in 2008, Adam Scott, having fired a scintillating final round 61, finished up winning by a very comfortable three shots, having started the day trailing by that margin.

If I was asked who I thought will win tomorrow I'd have to say Lawrie. He's played some superb golf, is clearly in fantastic form and he loves the course. He also overcame a one-shot penalty on the 10th today, after dropping his ball on his marker, to shoot his impressive five under-par 67. He may be the most likely winner but his price reflects that and given he's hardly prolific; I've taken a chance on half a dozen outsiders.

I backed Simon Khan (-5), Marc Warren (-4) and Andrew Dodt (-4) during round two (event reduced to just three rounds) and at the close of play I've also added a trio of Spaniards on -3 in the shape of Pablo Larrazabal, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and Rafael Cabrera-Bello. The latter has previous at final round swoops, Rafael shot 60 to win the Austria Open in 2009.

There are some classy players on -4 and -3 and the likes of Jason Day (-4), Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood or Martin Kaymer (all -3)could also come through and take the prize but they're not so generously priced and in a bun fight like this, I'm happy to play those at bigger odds. And besides, all my six are previous winners on the European Tour.

I can see all sorts of fun and games tomorrow and someone will make a charge for sure, I just hope it's one of mine.

At the WM Phoenix Open, where Spencer Levin, on -14, leads by three, a few players are yet to finish round two and one of them I've backed. I built up a modest wager on Harrison Frazar last night, who sits in second place, three ahead of John Huh and Webb Simpson in a tie for third. Hopefully he can get in the house safely and go from there.

Of my pre-event picks, only Ben Crane is within striking distance. On -6, he's fully eight back but the leaders could very easily come back. Levin has never won on Tour and last week he led after day one at the Farmers before shooting 76 in round two. He could very easily crumble and I wouldn't entertain any notions of backing him at his current price of just [2.78].

I'll be back again tomorrow with a good look at this one with just a round to go.

14.35 - February 3, 2012

It was forecast to blow hard at the Qatar Masters and blow hard it has. So much so that play was suspended this morning, with the early morning groups barely halfway through their rounds. A resumption of play never happened and they'll be back out there in the morning, with the event now reduced to 54 holes, which makes Alvaro Quiros' finish yesterday even more irritating.

Despite a bogey at the 18th (his 9th), presumably after finding water on the reachable par five, he managed to get himself to -3 through 16 holes. He looked to be playing well and given that he was just one off the lead, with the wind really getting up, I was more than happy with the state of play, and then disaster struck...

He missed the green off the tee on the par three 8th and then three-putted, from nowhere a double bogey. After that, he found the very edge of the par five 9th green in two. A two-putt from there would have gotten one of the dropped shots back and -2 would have been far from a disaster but instead he rolled his first putt a dozen feet by, left his birdie putt 18 inches short and then inexplicably missed that. He's now back on level par and he must have been fuming, I know I was.

John Daly leads at present on -5 but with the weather up in the air and a sprint finish in the offing, I'm just going to wait and see what tomorrow brings. Thomas Bjorn lost his way completely in the afternoon gales yesterday but it wasn't a surprise. The afternoon starters went round in an average of nearly two-and-a-half shots more than those that teed off in the morning and that was despite Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano somehow shooting -6 (he's dropped two this morning).

Paul Krishnamurty's fancy, Jason Day (currently -4), heads the market now and with three easy holes to face on return tomorrow, it's no surprise. I'll take a look again with a round to go.

At the WM Phoenix Open, they didn't manage to quite get round one finished yesterday, thanks to an early morning frost delay. In spite of the fact that I picked out fully ten selections before the off, I'm already in trouble! The best of mine so far are Scott Piercy and Justin Leonard on -3 but they're fully four shots behind first round leader Ryan Palmer on -7. It's a little bit frustrating because Ryan was definitely one of those I looked at closely, especially as Paul put him up in his Find Me A 100 Winner column, and boy is he in form. As a multiple Tour winner with course form, he fitted the bill but even though I appeared to do my damndest, you can't back them all, can you. Oh well.

Again, I'm going to await developments here too and I'll be back tomorrow at the halfway stage.

Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Alvaro Quiros @ an average of [19.5]
Thomas Bjorn @ [26.0]
James kingston @ [220.0]

In-Running plays
Marc Warren @ an average of [60.0]
Simon Khan @ an average of [80.0]
Andrew Dodt @ [85.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [90.0]
Pablo Larrazabal @ [120.0]
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]

WM Phoenix Open Pre-Event Selections:
Scott Piercy @ [65.0]
Gary Woodland @ [65.0]
Ian Poulter @ [70.0]
Y. E. Yang @ [75.0]
Ben Crane @ [75.0]
Jonathan Byrd @ [85.0]
Brian Gay @ [95.0]
Robert Garrigus @ [120.0]
Chris Kirk @ [160.0]
Justin Leonard @ [190.0]

In-running play
Harison Frazar @ an average of [12.0]

Our man takes it easy from the get-go with just the ten picks! What will it take to win the W M Phoenix Open? See what Steve thinks here......

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

As if there wasn't enough drama in Abu Dhabi, with Robert Rock holding Tiger Woods and Co at bay, last night's Farmers Insurance Open produced an unbelievable finish......

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