Our man's kicking himself for not backing Phil Mickelson earlier but he's not cutting his nose off to spite his face. He's looked at the stats and evaluated the opposition, and with a round to go Phil the Thrill is the man to beat at the BMW...
11:00 - September 9, 2012
With a round to go, both this week's events are still very open and extremely hard to predict.
Four players, Pablo Larrazabal 4.77/2, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 5.39/2, Graeme Storm 7.613/2, and Scott Jamieson 7.87/1 are locked together on -12 at the top of the KLM Open leaderboard, with Sweden's Peter Hanson just one shot back. At the BMW Championship, just two shots separate the top-seven players and I'm kicking myself over my trading, or should I say lack of trading yesterday!
Having not got matched on Larrazabal overnight on Friday at the over-ambitious 26.025/1, I really should have just taken the more than acceptable 24.023/1 still available yesterday morning but as always, hindsight's a marvellous thing. If I had to pick one now it would be Pablo, he hasn't made a bogey since his 5th hole on Thursday and he'll relish playing with fellow Spaniard Gonzo in the final group.
Although I like Pablo's chances, it looks far too open to get involved. I can't have Storm, who led by five at one point on the back-nine yesterday, but other than him, there are at least five others with a plausible chance. The likes of last week's winner, Richie Ramsay, Danny Willett, Henrik Stenson and Nicolas Colsaerts all have the class to go very low and make up ground and Peter Hanson could be playing with a freedom few could match.
How the Swede was able to concentrate on his game yesterday is beyond me. His 18 months-old son was taken to hospital in Florida with a virus and it sounded grave. Mercifully, this article suggests he's improving all the time and if that's still the case, a relieved Hanson could be a dangerous beast today.
At the BMW Championship, Rory McIlroy still heads the market after somehow remaining in-contention at Crooked Stick but if he's going to take back-to-back titles he's going to have to improve today.
The big mover yesterday was Phil Mickelson and if I'm cross with myself over missing Larrazabal's move, I'm absolute livid about Lefty. Having backed him the last two weeks at handsome odds, I dug my heels in deep and stubbornly refused to get involved this week at what I thought was a bit of a skinny price before the off. I can forgive that, after all, it looked like a good decision for two days but not backing him yesterday morning at 46.045/1, when he was clearly lurking with intent and when Rory and Tiger Woods were dominating the market, despite not impressing in round two, was absolutely unforgivable.
So what now? I've had to move on and look at the event objectively this morning and get over not backing Phil yesterday. And now that I've done that, who do I fancy to win the event? Phil Mickelson.
Rory sits alongside Lee Westwood one shot behind Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson and if he gets his game in order he'll still take all the beating but there has to be a serious doubt he can do so. He's not played well for two days and he's no certainty to turn it around in 24 hours.
Singh hasn't won for four years and Westwood is never a value play in the mix. His conversion rate is just not good enough, whereas Mickelson's is outstanding...
It's impossible to argue against his chance today. He's led or co-led with a round to go 33 times since 1996 and he's gone on to win 23 times. And of those 33 occasions, he's only twice failed to finish 1st or 2nd! When he's been tied for the lead, as he is now with Vijay Singh, he's won seven times and failed to win just six times. I'm an idiot for not getting him onside at halfway but I'm not going to cut my nose off to spite my face. I know it's a very tight leaderboard but Mickelson is a proven class-act closer and 4.84/1 is just too big.
Dustin Johnson, just two off the lead and currently trading at 11.5n/a is a big danger and he's another I looked at hard and should have gotten onside yesterday but you can't back them all.
09:30 - September 8, 2012
After two impeccable bogey-free rounds, Graeme Storm holds a three-shot lead at the KLM Open but he looks vulnerable to me. Leaderboard and betting as at 9.20, listed below.
Graeme Strom -11 5.59/2
Peter Hanson -8 4.77/2
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -8 -7.6n/a
Scott Jamieson -8 18.5n/a
Pablo Larrazabal -6 22.021/1
Shiv Kapur -6 55.054/1
-5 or worse the remainder
It's a tricky puzzle to solve and after much deliberation, I've decided not to add to my portfolio at this stage. All of my pre-event picks have disappointed but my bet on Gonzo on Thursday afternoon has worked out very well, thanks to an impressive second round 65, I'm happy to stick with him and see what today brings. I did try and back Larrazabal overnight at 26.025/1 but I didn't get matched and I'm not prepared to take lower.
In addition to the players listed above, Nicolas Colsaerts, on -5 and trading at just 10.09/1, Martin Kaymer (-5), who shot a disappointing second round 71, defending champ Simon Dyson (-4), and in-form Englishman Danny Willett (-5), all have to come into the equation but they all have to fly over the weekend and hope for some help from those ahead of them.
Storm is in a very commanding position right now and if he can break par over the weekend he'll take the world of beating. Dyson won with a 12 under-par 268 total last year and an in-form Martin Kaymer, who won by three strokes, only got to -14 two years ago, so you'd have to think a couple of under-par rounds may well be enough for Storm.
Hilversumsche is a tight and fiddly track where making ground is tough. There are birdies out there but it's keeping the errors off the card that's crucial. Storm is the only man bogey-free so far this week but can he keep it up? I doubt it.
Strom is notoriously poor in-contention and I'll be very surprised if he stays out in front. Ryder Cupper Peter Hanson is an understandable favourite but I never get him right. He too isn't exactly convincing in the mix and whenever I back him he finds a way to get beat. Jamieson looks reasonably priced but he hasn't been in-contention for a long time and he's still looking for his first European Tour win, so all things considered, I'm happy to stick with Gonzo.
I just hope he stays patient. After two rounds he leads both the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats (the two stats I felt were most important before the off) and if he remains patient with the putter, he could be the one. If I wasn't already on, I'd be backing him this morning.
Over at the BMW Championship, Rory McIlroy kicked off round two with a pair of birdies and threatened to take control of the event but it was hard work after that. He didn't play as well as he had done on day one and I'm a little worried that trend could continue today.
Vijay Singh, on 13, leads by one over Rory, Tiger Woods and Ryan Moore, with Lee Westwood and Bo Van Pelt on -11 and my man, Graham DeLaet and Seung-yul Noh on -10.
With birdies flying in left right and centre, the wet weather has ruined this event somewhat. Crooked Stick would be a proper test in dry and breezy conditions but it's pretty toothless in these conditions.
08:45 - September 7, 2012
With just three weeks to go to the Ryder Cup, European captain, Jose Maria Olazabal, saw at first hand yesterday that Martin Kaymer's hard work on the range has paid off. Playing alongside the German, as well as Belgian wildcard pick Nicolas Colsaerts, Jose must have really enjoyed watching his biggest concern constructing a wonderfully crafted opening 65 at the KLM Open.
Whether Kaymer, who's had a poor summer by his own very high standards, can kick-on for the remainder of the week remains to be seen but I'm certainly kicking myself for not having a saver at least. He won here two years ago and I'd written in my preview that I'd suspected an improvement but it's no use crying over spilt milk.
Prior to round two, Kaymer traded at around 4.84/1 - a price I was happy to turn my nose up at. If he goes on to win so be it but I'm not prepared to dive-in now.
Of my five pre-event picks, three shot first rounds in the 60's, with Berndt Wiesberger, who shot 68, faring best but he trails first round leader, Graham Storm by fully five shots.
I've added one more pick, backing Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who won his maiden title here in 2005, at an average of 60.059/1 during round one. After opening up with a three under-par 67, like Kaymer and early pace-setter Storm, he's playing his second round this morning.
Before I move on to events across the pond, I have to mention Paul Krishnamurty's Find Me A 100 Winner column yet again. Two of his three picks have started superbly and having spoken to him on Tuesday, I know he also considered Scotland's Craig Lee, who has also begun the week well.
The TV guys have been playing up the FedEx Cup playoff series since its inception but I have to admit, it's never really grabbed me yet but this year that could all change. With world number one, Rory McIlroy and former number one, Tiger Woods, going hell for leather at the BMW Championship in round one yesterday, there was a real buzz to the tournament and excitement will reach fever-pitch if they carry their rivalry forward to East Lake for the FedEx Cup decider in a fortnight's time.
It's not just the Rory and Woods show though, far from it. Four players opened up at a rain-softened, wind-bereft Crooked Stick with eight under-par 64's - Rory, local lad Bo Van Pelt, world number four Webb Simpson and another of my picks, outsider Graham DeLaet. Tiger Woods sits alongside Vijay Singh on -7, with world number two, Luke Donald, amongst those lurking on -6.
We look set for a cracker but don't get caught out and miss all today's action. With poor weather forecast, play has been brought forward today and it starts at 8.00am local time, 1.00pm UK time. Sky have brought their coverage forward to accommodate the change in schedule and they go live at 5.00pm. And if Woods, Rors and co are going to pick-up from where they left off yesterday, I should get yourself in front of the telly.
Having been extremely bullish about Rory's chance this week and about his new-found dominance over Tiger, I'm as relieved as I am pleased with his excellent start but I'm a little wary about today. If there is to be a reaction to Monday's win at the Deutsche bank Championship, it could be today.
And there's a real danger that I could get wrapped up in the Rory-Tiger duel and miss a move from elsewhere. Simpson and Donald are very obvious dangers to the first two in the market and I'll also have an eye on the in-form Dustin Johnson later on. He recovered well after a poor start yesterday to get to -4 and he might just muscle-in on the argument too.
KLM Open Pre-Event Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 44.043/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 46.045/1
Thomas Levet @ 90.089/1
James Morrison @ 160.0159/1
Lee Slattery @ 170.0169/1
In-Play Pick:
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ an average of 60.059/1
BMW Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Rory McIlroy @ 8.415/2
Bubba Watson @ 48.047/1
Graham DeLaet @ 400.0399/1
In-Play Bet
Phil Mickelson @ 4.84/1
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