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Lee Dixon: Newcastle to inch towards safety with Saturday stalemate against Liverpool

"Like Newcastle, Liverpool sit below their local rivals in the table and it's hard to see how Brendan Rodgers is going to motivate his men for the final four games.

Back the draw @ 3.613/5 

Liverpool go to St James' Park without their talisman and Newcastle have a good chance of securing the points they need for survival - but will a faltering Toon produce a winning performance?

The threat of relegation continues to haunt Newcastle - from a distance admittedly - but they have a big chance to banish those fears for good on Saturday evening against a Liverpool side lacking their talisman, Luis Suarez.

Any team would miss a 30-goal striker, but Suarez has made so many vital interventions in Liverpool's season that they will be significantly weakened by his absence. The furore over Suarez's actions at Anfield last Sunday and the accompanying reaction from the club threatens to overshadow the entire season. For me, Liverpool must take the punishment and move on. Ten games is an entirely appropriate penalty for what was a piece of utterly outrageous behaviour which has no place in the game. 

The most amazing thing for me was how Branislav Ivanovic took it without retaliating. I think the surprise took him more than anything. If it had happened against Martin Keown I doubt Suarez would have been around to score a 96th minute equaliser anyway!
So will Newcastle take advantage of an under strength Liverpool? Doubtful, I'm afraid. 

The Toon's home record isn't particularly special, having suffered seven league defeats at St James's Park this season, while current form is nothing to write home about either with seven points from the last 18 available. Alan Pardew's men looked nervous at WBA last time out despite taking the lead and they need to conquer that during the run-in.  

Going deep in the Europa League clearly affected Newcastle this season and the absence of midweek games will surely help on the closing stretch. With six points between the Toon and 18th placed Wigan (though the Latics have a game in hand) I ultimately expect Pardew to lead his team to safety, but they will want to get to 40 points as soon as possible. Nevertheless, odds of 23.022/1 are a true representation of Newcastle's relegation chances. 

Liverpool's season is fading to an inglorious end - three draws in recent weeks have taken the wind out of their sails and has as good as finished their unlikely dream of a top four finish. Like Newcastle they sit below their local rivals in the table and it's hard to see how Brendan Rodgers is going to motivate his men for the final four games.

Strangely enough they might find some encouragement upfront where goalscoring responsibilities will fall on Daniel Sturridge. The England man must use the next few games to send Rodgers a clear message about his claims for a first XI role next season. I do like Sturridge, but he is inconsistent. Liverpool will hope he shows his best during the run-in. 

Though Newcastle are not in a great state, I don't foresee Sturridge - or any of his team-mates - scoring a winner at St James'. I really don't see much between these two outfits and I fancy a draw on Saturday, and not a particularly entertaining one at that. A goal apiece looks the likely scoreline but I'll play it safe by restricting my bet to the match odds market. 

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Back the draw @ 3.613/5 

Prior to the shocking display against Sunderland, Newcastle had won their previous four at St James' and were looking like they would be safe for another season. However, as Lee says a nervy away draw at WBA and Newcastle are right in this relegation battle. With only one away win this season and their last home game against Arsenal on the final day of the season they must be looking to take something out of this game.

Without Luis Suarez this could be a good time to be facing the Reds, but Liverpool are resilient, suffering only one defeat in their last eight (away Southampton), their last three games all ended as draws. I think Newcastle will get something out of this game and I will be backing them with a bit of safety in the DRAW NO BET market at around 2.2.

As Lee mentions, without Luis Suarez, the goalscoring burden will fall on Daniel Sturridge, who was impressive against both Reading and Chelsea in Liverpool’s previous two fixtures. But so much of his good play has been because of fantastic interplay with Suarez – and without that link-up play, I’m not convinced he’ll be a significant goalscoring threat. I can see Liverpool dominating without penetrating, and I like the look of under 2.5 goals at 2.04.

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Paying Towards My Graduation

Pud's Poker Progress / Matthew Pitt / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Graduation time in the land of Pud

So far I have played 11 of the events, both GSOP and mini-GSOP, and have cashed for around $800 but the experience I have gained just from being in these games is easily worth quadruple that

Poker players are well aware that in order to be successful at this crazy game they need to make sure they are making decision that, in the long term, will yield profits. Constantly making +EV players help them to forget about the short term variance and eventually win money. That's the plan anyway.

The same runs true for "real life" too but so many get blinded by the short-term profits rather than looking at the broader picture and seeing if something has more value as a long term project. One such situation came up just a week or so ago when I was asked by Betfair if I wanted to play in all the Grand Series of Poker (GSOP) and mini-GSOP (barring the $5,000 Grand Final) in exchange for writing a report on each of the events. I saw this as a fantastic opportunity to play a whole host of tournaments I wouldn't usually have the chance of playing and I snapped their hand off.

Although the thought of winning $15,000-$60,000 obviously appealed to me it dawned on me that unless I actually cashed in some of the events I wouldn't actually be getting paid as such for writing what will end up being around 30,000 words not to mention the time it takes play the tournaments every night and the fact writing these articles takes up time I could use for other projects. I could have quite easily have asked for actual physical cash and locked up a nice short-term profit but I placed a higher long-term value on the education I could pick up from being in $54-$200 buy-in tournaments.

So far I have played 11 of the events, both GSOP and mini-GSOP, and have cashed for around $800 but the experience I have gained just from being in these games is easily worth quadruple that, possibly even more. I've been able to watch and play alongside winning regulars, seen how they bet and I'm soaking it all up like a sponge. Yes I am still missing far too many value-bet spots to be profitable in these games on a permanent basis and I am missing a lot of re-shoves too. And yes I have probably been completely owned on several occasions but with each tournament I feel I am growing into a much better poker player and my poker graduation seems like it is just around the corner.

I'm delighted with some of my results, more so when I consider that if I had just a couple of hands hold up at crucial times I would have gone event deeper in some of the higher buy-in events. Highlights so far for me include finishing 370/2,419 in my first $200 tournament, coming 50/600 in a $108 rebuy (I didn't rebuy or add-on) for my largest score of $521, finishing 86/364 in a $200 buy-in Pot Limit Omaha event, though I have been pleased with how I played in 95% of the games.

Not only have I been learning so much about the game and myself to some degree but playing in these games has given me a new lease of poker life, determination and love for the game. I want to be playing on $50 buy-in games on a regular basis, I want to be playing in the $200,000 Champion Chip on Betfair Poker every week and for the first time in months, possibly in the last two years, I actually feel like I not only could but I will be doing this before the year is out. You mark my words!

In other news, away from the virtual felt, I have been completely dry for 22 days which is probably the longest period of time without alcohol since I was 17 years old. It has been an absolute walk in the park and I cannot see myself drinking ever again, it is really strange. If you had said to me one month ago that I was going to be a non-drinker than I would have laughed so hard lager would have come out of my nose but sat here now typing this I can hand on heart say that I think that will be the case. I won't be pushing the message alcohol is evil down your throats but I would recommend anyone who drinks to read Allen Carr's How To Control Your Drinking even if you have no intention of giving up booze. It's only £3.70 or so on the Kindle so get it bought!

I have also decided to start reading the Discworld series by Sir Terry Pratchett, right from the very beginning. I have just downloaded The Colour of Magic onto my trusty kindle and I will not stop reading them until I have completed all 39 books, finishing with Snuff, probably in around 15 year's time!

I guess that's it for now. Keep an eye out on the Betfair Blog for the GSOP and mini-GSOP exploits of Team Betfair players and those of yours truly and I'll try my best to win one! Until next time, aim for the long term and good luck at the tables.

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Ligue 1: PSG set to continue their match towards the title

French Football / James Eastham / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nene (centre) has been Ligue 1's outstanding player this season

"Rennes’ home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux’s away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicates the hosts’ price should be nearer to evens."

After three successful bets last weekend James Eastham picks out the smartest selections from France's matchday 23.

Nice v PSG (18th v 1st) Sunday, 16:00 GMT

Nice are Ligue 1's poorest attacking side right now. They could have played for hours without scoring against Montpellier (0-1) a fortnight ago, and it was a similar story when they went out of the French Cup on penalties after two goalless hours against Rennes (21 Jan). Last weekend they grabbed a late equaliser at Ajaccio (1-1) but that goal was the result of the sort of defensive error they won't be handed every week.

PSG are so talented they can score freely without even playing well. That's what happened against Evian last weekend (3-1 win) and has occurred many times this season. The individual brilliance of their multi-faceted squad, and in particular Nene, Ligue 1's player of the season so far, is driving the club towards their first title since 1994.

Nice have a solid home record (W4-D4-L3) but the gulf in class between these sides is so great I expected to find PSG (6/10 away wins) odds-on. Take the evens about an away win.

Valenciennes v Nancy (12th v 14th) Saturday, 14:00 GMT

These two sides are among 10 (Ajaccio, Evian, Brest, Caen, Sochaux, Auxerre, Nice and Dijon being the others) facing a relegation dogfight but are two of the best-equipped to stay out of the bottom three. Valenciennes are becoming more clinical in the penalty area, while Nancy's new signings Sebastien Puygrenier (out this weekend) and Yohan Mollo have added vital quality at either end of the pitch. Nancy players have said training has improved in recent weeks, younger team members are making progress and coach Jean Fernandez is one of the wiliest in the business.

Goals are the order of the day. Nancy will be vulnerable without Puygrenier, while Nancy scored three times at Auxerre (3-1) in their last away game and have three outstanding counter-attacking footballers in Mollo, Daniel Niculae and Lossemy Karaboue.

Back Both Teams to Score at [2.06] or Over 2.5 Goals at [2.36].

Rennes v Sochaux (6th v 20th) Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Looking at the league table, you might wonder why bottom-club Sochaux are worth an investment this weekend. But a closer look at the facts reveals Rennes are much too short to win at [1.50].

Rennes' home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux's away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicate the hosts' price should be nearer to evens than it is.

Rennes struggle because of their counter-attacking style: against sides that are well-organised and defend in great numbers the Bretons are often frustrated. And Sochaux's recent away performances suggest they are well-equipped to upset the home side: on January 14 they defended excellently before succumbing to a late set-piece at St Etienne (0-1) before gaining a well-deserved point at Lorient (1-1) a fortnight ago.

Consider backing the draw at [4.2], although I prefer the safety net of Sochaux +1.0 on the Asian handicap. This way, you will win if Sochaux win or the game ends in a draw, get your money back if Sochaux lose by a single goal and lose only if Sochaux lose by two goals or more.

Best Bet: PSG to win at Nice @ [2.00].
Other Recommended Bets: Sochaux +1.0 Asian handicap at Rennes @ [2.05]; Valenciennes v Nancy Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.36].

James Eastham has made 43.93pts profit from 302pts staked on Ligue 1 since 2008 (14.5% ROI).

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League One Betting: Leyton to edge towards the last play-off spot

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Russell Slade has Leyton Orient playing a good brand of football at the moment

"Back to reality, marbles recovered, Orient have got the class to win this. Earlier in the month they played Southampton off the park but lost 2-0, but there's a good mentality about the club and Slade can be a fairly attack-minded coach."

Matches are running out for Leyton Orient to make one last push for a play-off spot but this weekend's home game is a good chance to put some pressure on Bournemouth. Alan Dudman talks us through the other good League One bets.

Brighton [2.50] v Huddersfield Town [2.88], the draw [3.70]

Brighton have already been crowned League One champions, and maybe a sense of 'job done' was the reason for their Easter period that yielded just one point. Monday's 1-1 draw at Colchester showed up some uncharacteristic defensive lapses, and the league's meanest defence looked as though they had switched off slightly.

However, it was Saturday's 2-1 home loss to Southampton that would have had Sunday news editors drooling. Albion boss Gus Poyet said: "when you look back in 10 years time at who won the title, it was Brighton who play football by passing the ball - not kicking it into the box." Ouch!

Huddersfield meanwhile are 23 league games unbeaten and picked up maximum points over the holiday weekend, with wins against MK Dons and Dagenham. Despite the 3-1 and 2-1 victories, Terriers boss Lee Clark was not satisfied, citing the need to kill teams off when having the chances.

The Yorkshire outfit like width, and will have to attack Brighton here knowing that any chance of automatic promotion rests with two straight wins from their their remaining games. Clark has got Jordan Rhodes scoring again, whilst right winger Jack Hunt is a supreme talent with a bag of tricks better than the 'Great Soprendo'.

With the onus on the visitors to get a result, they have to score, and the overs are more appealing than the outrights.

Best bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.98]
Back 2-2 @ [22.00]

Leyton Orient [1.74] v Tranmere Rovers [4.90], the draw [3.85]

Remember those FA Cup exploits of Orient? Well I might be asking the same question in future articles regarding their play-off exploits. The Londoners have got momentum at a crucial time and picked up six points over Easter with victories over Peterborough and Carlisle. They've now got a real chance of making the final play-off spot if Bournemouth
make a mistake.

I think they can do it, although [15.00] in the promotion should be a decent trade believing that their south coast rival might slip up. Orient manager Russell Slade has achieved what I have never been able to achieve - to look good in a cap. For some reason I don't dig them, and they don't dig me. Slade has also taken the Os to dizzying new heights.

Back to reality, marbles recovered, Orient have got the class to win this. Earlier in the month they played Southampton off the park but lost 2-0, but there's a good mentality about the club and Slade can be a fairly attack-minded coach. I would expect a 4-4-2 once again, with the scheming Dean Cox pulling the strings from out wide.

Tranmere are as unpredictable as the great C.B Fry, and the 4-0 win over Exeter on Monday could easily be followed up with with a 4-0 defeat - as was the case earlier in the month at Sheffield Wednesday.

Back Orient to win 2-0 [11.00] and 3-0 [18.00]
Back Orient HT/FT @ [2.40]

Brentford [4.90] v Southampton [1.76], the draw [3.75]

The magnificent run of 10 wins in 12 games has taken Southampton to the brink of automatic promotion, but with Huddersfield breathing down their necks (see above), nothing less than three points will do this weekend for the visit to Griffin Park.

Brentford have nothing to play for, and are in a nice situation and playing under no pressure. The Londoners however have several injuries, and might be ripe for a peppering this weekend - despite being a tidy outfit themselves.

But Southampton are rolling, and with their magnificent away support, could be ready to unleash an onslaught. Saturday's 2-1 win over Brighton was achieved with high-balls into the box, lots of pressing, and lots of pressure. That tempo could be too much for a team whose season is finished. The Saints can go aerial and win ugly, or pretty on the floor - either way, they should win this.

Back 0-1 [9.00]. 0-2 [13.00]

Four good bets ahead of another intriguing weekend of League Two football. Over to Ian Lamont......

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Champions League Results: Crouch helps Spurs take a giant step towards the quarters

Champions League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 15 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Cheers mate. Peter Crouch thanks Aaron Lennon for handing him a priceless goal on a plate

"Gattuso’s behaviour will be the least of Harry Redknapp’s worries though and the win makes them 1.35 favourites to qualify and 18.0 to go on and win the competition."

Spurs are in pole position to make the last eight of the Champions League while Schalke and Valencia drew in Spain...

Tottenham took a huge step towards qualifying for the quarter finals of the Champions League by beating AC Milan 1-0 in Italy tonight. They were matched at 9.8 In-Play just before Peter Crouch side-footed Aaron Lennon's square pass into the back of the net after the winger had gone on a fantastic run down the right. Crouch was matched at [15.5] to open the scoring and was one of several Spurs players who had a fine game. The 1-0 win meant big payouts for those who had backed the north London outfit to win by that scoreline at [20.0] and to keep a clean sheet at [6.8].

It was an exciting game of football but one that had plenty of controversy as well. Former Arsenal man Mathieu Flamini was lucky to escape a red card for a reckless challenge on Vedran Corluka, which saw the Croatian international stretchered off and likely to miss quite a few upcoming matches. Gennaro Gattuso, always a tempestuous character who was booked for a dangerous tackle on Steven Pienaar and will miss the return leg, confronted Spurs assistant manager Joe Jordan during the match and appeared to head-butt him after the final whistle; further sanctions will surely follow and it's likely the Italy international will receive some sort of ban in addition to his one-match suspension.

Gattuso's behaviour will be the least of Harry Redknapp's worries though and the win makes them [1.35] favourites to qualify and [18.0] to go on and win the competition.

Over in Spain Valencia missed out on a good chance to take an advantage into the second leg. They went 1-0 up but allowed Raul, of all people, to grab an equaliser and put Schalke in a good position to qualify for the quarters, which they are 1.6 to do. Raul spent almost a decade and a half at Valencia's rivals Real Madrid and scored plenty of goals against them over the years. He was matched at [6.8] to score one tonight whilst the draw was matched at [6.8] and 1-1 at [10.0].

Barcelona, who face Arsenal tomorrow night, are the favourites to win this year's edition of the Champions League at [2.96].

Spurs are in pole position to make the last eight of the Champions League while Schalke and Valencia drew in Spain......

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This was a cracking match when these two played last year in the very same competition and we could have another really good game this time round. How are the teams likely to line up, where will the game be...

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