Ligue 1 Betting: There's no stopping PSG now

"Nancy have lost six of nine games and scored just three goals in total. PSG should be far too strong for them"

PSG -1.0 Asian handicap at Nancy @ 1.9520/21

Carlo Ancelotti's league leaders should continue their march at the top of the table but Lille will suffer another difficult weekend, says James Eastham.

Lille v Valenciennes (11th v 5th) Sat, 16:00 BST
Lille's 1-0 home defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tuesday night was just the latest miserable episode in a horrible season. Rudi Garcia's side have won just one of their last nine games in all competitions as they struggle to come to terms with life after Eden Hazard.

Neighbours Valenciennes go into this game in high spirits. They thrashed Lorient 6-1 last weekend (aided by two Lorient red cards) and will be confident they can get something in front of 50,000 fans at the Grand Stade. Valenciennes have the attacking quality to hurt Lille's shaky defence: wingers Thomas Dossevi and Gael Danic, playmaker Foued Kadir and centre-forward Anthony Le Tallec are all in fine form.

Lille are too short at 1.654/6 so you have the opportunity to back Valenciennes on the Asian Handicap at good odds.

Montpellier v Nice (16th v 15th) Sat, 19:00 BST
Montpellier are a shadow of the side that won the Ligue 1 title last season. They lie 16th, having taken just eight points from their opening nine games. Their home form is a particular concern - their league record at Stade de la Mosson is W0-D2-L2 and they have lost 2-1 to both Arsenal and Olympiakos in the Champions League.

Nice are playing better than their league position suggests. They struggle to keep clean sheets but the quality and variety of their attacking play is a joy to watch. And they are difficult to beat - since an opening-day 1-0 defeat to Ajaccio their only loss was v Reims (3-1) and over the course of 90 minutes they deserved a point.

Montpellier's 1.758/11 price is too short. I'd back the draw or support Nice on the Asian Handicap. Both teams to score also looks too big - both teams have found the net in 19 of 23 games involving these two sides in all competitions.

Nancy v PSG (20th v 1st) Sat, 19:00 BST
It's bottom against top at Stade Marcel Picot and impossible to make a case for Nancy stopping the PSG juggernaut. The hosts have lost six of their opening nine league games and scored just three times. Their defensive record of 15 goals conceded is the joint third-worst in the division and fans are getting on their backs. Confidence could not be lower as the title favourites arrive in town.

Since making a slow start to the season in August, PSG have improved. They have won comfortably against Ligue 1's smaller sides: 4-0 at Bastia, 2-0 v Sochaux and 1-0 v Reims. There's little downside to backing PSG -1.0 on the Asian Handicap as they are a strong selection to win, and you'll make a profit at good odds if they win by two goals or more.

Bastia v Bordeaux (12th v 6th) Sun, 16:00 BST
I can see both teams scoring here. Bastia are a decent attacking side - they have scored 12 goals in nine games - and should be able to find the net at least once because of fatigue in the Bordeaux ranks. The visitors travelled to Madeira for a Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday night so are unlikely to be at their sharpest when these sides meet at Stade Furiani. Goalkeeper Cedric Carrasso is also an injury doubt.

Bastia have the division's worst defensive record, conceding an average of 2.22 goals a game. They have kept only one clean sheet in nine games. That was against Ajaccio last weekend (0-0) but they rode their luck, with Ajaccio hitting the post and firing wide when they should have scored.

Odds of 1.784/5 are worth taking.

Marseille v Lyon (2nd v 3rd) Sun, 20:00 BST
Marseille made the best start of any Ligue 1 side in 50 years by winning their opening six league games but since then, their form has faltered. They have picked up just one point from their last three league games as their early start to the season - Marseille's first competitive game was a Europa League qualifier on August 2 - has caught up with them. Thursday night's trip to Borussia Monchengladbach and the absence of eight-goal top scorer Andre-Pierre Gignac will do little to help their cause.

Lyon are just one place and one point behind Marseille in the standings. Their only defeat in 13 games in all competition was v Bordeaux (0-2) and came against the run of play.

The visitors are good enough to get a point, so I'd back the draw (3.259/4) or support Lyon on the Asian Handicap.

Best Bet
PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap at Nancy @ 1.9520/21
Other Recommended Bets
Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap at Marseille @ 2.0421/20;
Valenciennes +1.0 Asian Handicap at Lille @ 1.794/5;
Bastia v Bordeaux Both Teams to Score @ 1.784/5
Montpellier v Nice Both Teams to Score @ 2.021/1;
Nice +0.5&+1.0 Asian Handicap at Montpellier @ 1.9620/21;

James Eastham has made 29.01pts profit from 372pts staked on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets since August 2008 (7.8% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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Against All Odds: Lay Monaco in Ligue Two clash

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Laval travel to Monaco tonight in a Ligue Two clash over in France. The Home side are odds-on but they have won just one of 12 league matches in front of their own fans this season. Paul Robinson introduces his lay of the day.

Regular readers will know that I like to focus on stats when making my selections. Well how about this for a stat: So far in 2012, I have had 23 successful odds-on lays from 39 and if you had staked £10 on every selection, you'd be just over £100 in profit before commission.

Monaco are floundering in 19th place in the table with 20 points from 23 matches. Marco Simone's men are in danger of back to back relegations as they are five points adrift of safety and can't buy a win for love nor money this campaign. The Red and Whites have drawn nearly half of their games and they need to start turning some of those into victories, but their leaky defence is proving a real hindrance.

With 34 conceded Monaco have the worst defensive record in the division and they have kept just one clean sheet in five at Stade Louis II. Looking at their home record in further detail, they have won one, drawn seven and lost four. The sole victory was against Arles back in September and since then they are without a win in seven.

Laval are up in 9th place in the league after collecting 33 points from 22 fixtures. That is an improvement on last year's bottom half finish and manager Philippe Hinschberger will be hoping his side can consolidate this position in 2012. Les Tangos are a bit inconsistent though and their record form reads; DWLLWWLWLW.

This inconsistency is partly due to their contrasting home and away form as they are a much better team on home soil, however they are capable of picking up results on the road, with the most recent example being an impressive 2-3 victory over fourth placed Nantes in December

With five goals in their last five away matches, Laval certainly have it in them to trouble Moncao's porous defence and I can see them nicking one or two this evening, meaning Monaco will have to be in fine form in front of goal to grab the win.

Laval are no world beaters and are a touch shaky on their travels, but I can't be having odds-on about a side who are second from bottom with a home win percentage of 8%. Monaco are trading around [1.99] and at that price, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet: Lay Monaco against Laval @ [1.99]

Leicester City travel to East Midlands rivals Derby tonight for what will be a highly competitive match in the English Championship. Four of Leicester's last five games have had three goals or more yet under 2.5 is trading at [1.83]....

Following their hammering against Liverpool, Brighton travel to Hull this evening. The current odds suggest that they won't be atoning tonight but Paul Robinson has other ideas....

Barnsley host Birmingham in the English Championship tonight in what, on paper, appears to be a goalfest in the making. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on though and Paul Robinson believes that is definitely worth opposing....

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Ligue 1: PSG set to continue their match towards the title

French Football / James Eastham / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nene (centre) has been Ligue 1's outstanding player this season

"Rennes’ home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux’s away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicates the hosts’ price should be nearer to evens."

After three successful bets last weekend James Eastham picks out the smartest selections from France's matchday 23.

Nice v PSG (18th v 1st) Sunday, 16:00 GMT

Nice are Ligue 1's poorest attacking side right now. They could have played for hours without scoring against Montpellier (0-1) a fortnight ago, and it was a similar story when they went out of the French Cup on penalties after two goalless hours against Rennes (21 Jan). Last weekend they grabbed a late equaliser at Ajaccio (1-1) but that goal was the result of the sort of defensive error they won't be handed every week.

PSG are so talented they can score freely without even playing well. That's what happened against Evian last weekend (3-1 win) and has occurred many times this season. The individual brilliance of their multi-faceted squad, and in particular Nene, Ligue 1's player of the season so far, is driving the club towards their first title since 1994.

Nice have a solid home record (W4-D4-L3) but the gulf in class between these sides is so great I expected to find PSG (6/10 away wins) odds-on. Take the evens about an away win.

Valenciennes v Nancy (12th v 14th) Saturday, 14:00 GMT

These two sides are among 10 (Ajaccio, Evian, Brest, Caen, Sochaux, Auxerre, Nice and Dijon being the others) facing a relegation dogfight but are two of the best-equipped to stay out of the bottom three. Valenciennes are becoming more clinical in the penalty area, while Nancy's new signings Sebastien Puygrenier (out this weekend) and Yohan Mollo have added vital quality at either end of the pitch. Nancy players have said training has improved in recent weeks, younger team members are making progress and coach Jean Fernandez is one of the wiliest in the business.

Goals are the order of the day. Nancy will be vulnerable without Puygrenier, while Nancy scored three times at Auxerre (3-1) in their last away game and have three outstanding counter-attacking footballers in Mollo, Daniel Niculae and Lossemy Karaboue.

Back Both Teams to Score at [2.06] or Over 2.5 Goals at [2.36].

Rennes v Sochaux (6th v 20th) Saturday, 20:00 GMT

Looking at the league table, you might wonder why bottom-club Sochaux are worth an investment this weekend. But a closer look at the facts reveals Rennes are much too short to win at [1.50].

Rennes' home record is a disappointing W4-D5-L1 and Sochaux's away record is W1-D5-L5. The fact Rennes have won fewer than half their home games and Sochaux have avoided defeat in more than half their away games indicate the hosts' price should be nearer to evens than it is.

Rennes struggle because of their counter-attacking style: against sides that are well-organised and defend in great numbers the Bretons are often frustrated. And Sochaux's recent away performances suggest they are well-equipped to upset the home side: on January 14 they defended excellently before succumbing to a late set-piece at St Etienne (0-1) before gaining a well-deserved point at Lorient (1-1) a fortnight ago.

Consider backing the draw at [4.2], although I prefer the safety net of Sochaux +1.0 on the Asian handicap. This way, you will win if Sochaux win or the game ends in a draw, get your money back if Sochaux lose by a single goal and lose only if Sochaux lose by two goals or more.

Best Bet: PSG to win at Nice @ [2.00].
Other Recommended Bets: Sochaux +1.0 Asian handicap at Rennes @ [2.05]; Valenciennes v Nancy Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.36].

James Eastham has made 43.93pts profit from 302pts staked on Ligue 1 since 2008 (14.5% ROI).

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Ligue 1 Odds: Paris project goes off the rails in Marseille

French Football / Ben Lyttleton / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Javier Pastore looks flat out knackered

"Pastore looks a shadow of the player who inspired PSG to beat Lyon and Montpellier, whom France Football described as a €43m bargain; he is clearly shattered, having played in 18 of PSG’s last 19 games, and this after a summer spent playing in the Copa America."

Mega-bucks PSG have faltered horribly in recent weeks culminating in a 3-0 defeat at Marseille on Sunday night and manager Antoine Kombouare is a dead man walking, says Ben Lyttleton

It was the kind of moment than can make or break a job for an under-pressure - but this time it didn't pay off. When Paris Saint-Germain fans look back on the reign of coach Antoine Kombouare, they might be able to trace the moment his fate was sealed to the 60th minute of last night's 3-0 defeat at Marseille.

It's true, PSG had failed to play well in each of their last three matches:
the 1-1 draw with Bordeaux, last week's home defeat to relegation-threatened Nancy, and, in particular, the Marseille game. But his side was only 1-0 down, to Loic Remy's early goal, when he took the decision to take off Javier Pastore and Kevin Gameiro, the team's two star players, both of whom had poor games.

Pastore looks a shadow of the player who inspired PSG to beat Lyon and Montpellier, whom France Football described as a €43m bargain; he is clearly shattered, having played in 18 of PSG's last 19 games, and this after a summer spent playing in the Copa America. The Argentine playmaker left the pitch with the lowest pass completion rate of any player - 47 per cent, lower even than PSG goalkeeper Salvatore Sirigu - and Canal Plus pundit Christophe Dugarry bemoaned his attitude, saying: "He tries to beat two players when he should be keeping it simple; he's just losing the ball every time."

Just like last week, PSG sports director Leonardo faced the press after the game to insist that Kombouare was safe: "There's always a difficult moment in each season. We started well but now we're struggling. But it won't decide the season: this changes nothing to our project."

What he means is that PSG are still on the hunt for a new coach, (Carlo Anclelotti has reportedly turned it down, while others like Rafa Benitez and Marcello Lippi are said to be under consideration), even if that is harsh of former PSG midfielder Kombouare, who has steadied the ship impressively in recent seasons. And while the Kanak coach is criticized for over-using Pastore, Leonardo is the man who brought him in as the marquee signing, as well as signing Diego Lugano, at fault for the first goal last night, over Kombouare's head.

Apart from the fact that only Ajaccio and Nice are on a worse run in the league, the result certainly changes things in Ligue 1: not only keeping Montpellier in top spot - they beat Sochaux 3-1 thanks to Olivier Giroud's hat-trick, but also giving the rest of the league the belief that PSG can be overhauled.

It was not so long ago that France Football was speculating not if PSG would win the title but by how much. Now, though, they are three points behind Montpellier, with Lille and Rennes only two points back, and Lyon, ([4.3]) for the title, four points. As always, Montpellier president Louis Nicollin laughed off his side's chances of staying the distance - last season they faded after they were joint-top after 15 games - in typical foul-mouthed
style: "If we beat Lyon, PSG and Lille to the title, you can stab me in the backside with a sausage!" he told L'Equipe.

Montpellier are ([10.5]) to keep their momentum, but perhaps a better bet would be reigning champions Lille, ([4.4]), who are coming into form after their run of five draws in September. Their only defeats since then have come to Inter Milan in the Champions League, and Lille, traditionally slow starters, have only lost once in Ligue 1, to Montpellier in Week Two. They face PSG, now ([2.52]), in the week before Christmas in what will be a huge game.

Sunday's win was also a big one for Marseille: coach Didier Deschamps came into the game under huge pressure after the midweek loss to Olympiakos, the embarrassing public fall-out with Andre-Pierre Gignac, and then an apparent lack of support after that. Leaks from the Marseille dressing-room suggested that players are unhappy with Deschamps's lack of tactical work in training-sessions, and some of the players agreed with Gignac's criticisms.

This result pushes Marseille into the top half and now seven points off a Champions League place -it would be a huge comeback if Deschamps could push his team back up there after their shocking start. Marseille are ([3.4]) to finish in the top three.

Meanwhile, December was always going to be a big month for the PSG 'project'. Owners QSI were hoping to confirm the signing of David Beckham on an 18-month deal in the next few weeks, but before then - perhaps depending on how the team copes against Auxerre and Sochaux - there could be a new man arriving in the dug-out as well.

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Ligue 1 Betting: No limit to Paris St-Germain's ambition

French Football / Michael Lintorn / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lazio forward Mauro Zarate has been linked with a move to Paris St-Germain

"There is little doubt that they are the team that have got everyone talking, with a massive 80 per cent of the money staked so far heading in their direction."

With Alex, Jeremy Menez and Mauro Zarate among the latest names rumoured to be attracting the interest of Paris St-Germain, it is no shock that they are being backed heavily for the Ligue 1 title.

Belief is growing in Paris St-Germain's ability to win Ligue 1 next season as the extent of the lofty aspirations of their new owners the Qatar Investment Authority becomes increasingly apparent.

The perceived sleeping giants of French football remain only third favourites in a very open market at [4.4] but there is little doubt that they are the team that have got everyone talking, with a massive 80 per cent of the money staked so far heading in the direction of Antoine Kombouare's men.

Rennes goalkeeper Nicolas Douchez, who was an integral part of the division's stingiest defence last term, and prolific Lorient striker Kevin Gameiro have arrived already yet appear set to be the first signings of many rather than the final pieces to the jigsaw.

Barely a day has passed or will pass this summer without a big name being linked with a move to the capital club and their decision to hire Inter boss Leonardo as general manager having once worked in a similar role at Milan is an indication of their aim to ultimately compete for the best players around.

Of course, for now, they aren't quite an attractive enough proposition for the most illustrious steeds aboard the transfer merry-go-round and are instead in a similar position to fellow rich kids Malaga, trying to purchase the second level of stars in an attempt to improve enough to appeal to the elite.

QPR playmaker Adel Taarabt falls in that group and has been the subject of a £15 million bid, while other alleged targets include France international Marvin Martin, Chelsea defender Alex, Tottenham midfielder Wilson Palacios, Roma creator Jeremy Menez and Lazio forward Mauro Zarate.

Regardless of who joins in this window, Paris St-Germain's new-look squad will have to wait at least a year for the chance to test themselves in the Champions League after finishing fourth last season, however their newfound wealth is likely to render them major contenders to win the Europa League.

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Ligue 1 Betting: Overs just too big

French Football / James Eastham / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Youssouf Hadji of Nancy is one of the division's best forwards

"It’s easy to see why Nancy’s games are so high-scoring: playmaker Julien Feret and centre-forward Youssouf Hadji are among the best in the division in their positions, but a defence where the likes of Andre Luiz, Joel Sami and Jordan Loties get picked so often is always going to ship goals."

None of the big guns are involved in James' selections this week but that's no reason to give his reliable tips a miss....

Montpellier (6th) v Rennes (2nd) (Sat, 6pm kick-off UK time)

Two months we suggested, at [24.0], Rennes were too big to win the French League title. Events have proved us right: going into this game the Bretons are second only on goal difference and have come in to [12.5] in the outright market. Whether they've got the all-round ability to win the league is another matter, but they offer another good betting opportunity this weekend.

Montpellier boast one of the division's best back fours (see bet below) but are fairly predictable going forward, especially as playmaker Marco Estrada, the creative hub of the side, has been poor since the turn of the year. Younes Belhanda scored a late winner to defeat league leaders Lille a fortnight ago but I don't see Rene Girard's side claiming another major scalp here.

There's hardly anything in this game, whereas the market makes Rennes clear outsiders at [3.35], to Montpellier's [2.52] (the draw is [3.2]). A low-scoring draw is a reasonable possibility, so I'd lay the hosts or back Rennes 0 Asian handicap.

Lorient (8th) v Nancy (16th) (Sat, 6pm)

Lorient and Nancy have been two of this season's must-see sides for goals: Lorient's games have averaged 2.52 goals, Nancy's 2.72. Twenty-five of the sides' combined 49 games have had over 2.5 goals.

It's easy to see why Nancy's games are so high-scoring: playmaker Julien Feret and centre-forward Youssouf Hadji are among the best in the division in their positions, but a defence where the likes of Andre Luiz, Joel Sami and Jordan Loties get picked so often is always going to ship goals.

Lorient's defence is usually fairly solid but members of it are missing this weekend, and those that are available will be tired after playing for 120 minutes and losing on penalties at Lille on Wednesday night (and the 1,400km round trip won't have helped, either). Nancy will be better-equipped than most sides to score on Lorient's artificial pitch, too, as the visitors have their own faux-turf surface at their Stade Marcel-Picot.
At [2.2], over 2.5 goals is too big.

Montpellier (6th) v Rennes (2nd) and Nice (15th) v Lens (19th) (both Sat, 6pm)

Montpellier v Rennes is my first low-scoring pick of the weekend. Montpellier's home games have featured just 2.08 goals a game. Rennes away stats are even more remarkable: their 12 games have featured just 1.83 goals a game. Rennes have the division's best defensive record, Montpellier the third best.

My second low-goals selection is Nice v Lens. Nice are Ligue 1's second-lowest scorers with just 17 goals from 25 games. Their 12 home fixtures have averaged just 1.92 goals a game. Eight of those games have featured under 2.5 goals.

Lens have managed just one shot on target in three away games since Laszlo Boloni took over. Defensively, they have improved - the sang et or (blood and golds) have conceded just three goals despite the calibre of opposition they've faced in those three games (Lille, PSG, Rennes).

Put Montpellier v Rennes and Nice v Lens in an under 2.5 goals double, and it will pay out at [2.36].

Best Bet: Lorient v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ [2.2]

Other Recommended Bets: Montpellier v Rennes and Nice v Lens under 2.5 goals double @ [2.36]; Rennes 0 Asian handicap at Montpellier @ [2.25].

* James Eastham has made a profit on Ligue 1 games and outright markets in each of the past two seasons and his 2010-11 running total stands at 4.53pts profit (after 5% commission) from 51pts staked (8.9% profit).

None of the big guns are involved in James' selections this week but that's no reason to give his reliable tips a miss.......

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The ever-in-form James Eastham talks us through his best selections ahead of another weekend of Ligue 1 action....

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Ligue 1 Betting Preview: Can fabulous Lyon upset Lille?

French Football / James Eastham / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

"There are three good reasons to oppose Ligue 1 leaders Lille when they host title rivals Lyon at Stade Metropole on Sunday night."

PSG are always great value for entertainment and their dodgy defence means overs backers are rewarded. So have Toulouse got the attack to exploit them? Meanwhile, James Eastham fancies Lyon to cause Lille problems on a potato patch.

PSG v Toulouse - Sun, kick-off 16:00 UK time

After going a couple of games without scoring (1-0 defeat at Rennes and 0-0 home draw v Lens) PSG bounced back into form last weekend with a 3-0 win over relegation-threatened Nice. A sprightly performance from Nene was one of the biggest reasons behind their improvement: after a poor month by his own standards, the Brazilian left-winger was involved in all three goals on a day when the capital club had 11 shots on target.

PSG's chances of producing another high-scoring performance are higher than you would normally expect because Toulouse's fourth-choice goalkeeper, Ali Ahamada, will start. Yohann Pele, Mathieu Valverde and Marc Vidal (who went off injured last weekend) are all unavailable, so 20-year-old Ahamada - whose first task after coming on as a substitute against Rennes last weekend was to pick the ball out of the net when the visitors scored a penalty - will make his first senior start.

PSG will be confident in attack but are always liable to concede because they grant opponents so many scoring opportunities. Antoine Kombouare's side have kept just two clean sheets in their last 15 league games, so if Toulouse are just slightly more accurate than they were last weekend, when they twice hit the woodwork, the three-goal barrier should be broken.

Lille v Lyon - Sun, 20:00

There are three good reasons to oppose Ligue 1 leaders Lille when they host title rivals Lyon at Stade Metropole on Sunday night. The first is that Lille are experiencing their worst form since moving to the top of the table in December. Last weekend's 1-0 defeat at Montpelier was their first league loss since October 24 but no surprise considering how poorly they'd played in two of their previous three games (against Lens, 1-0, and Auxerre, 1-1). Lyon, in contrast, are in fabulous form: they put four past local rivals St Etienne (4-1) a fortnight ago and followed up with four more against Nancy (4-0) last weekend.

Fatigue is the second factor. Lille have played 39 games to Lyon's 34 this season. Just 18 outfield players have started league games for Lille, and four of those have started just once. Lyon coach Claude Puel has a larger pool of players to pick from so has been able to rest some of his more important players more regularly.

Lyon have had a couple more days to prepare for this game: they hosted Real Madrid in the Champions League (1-1) on Tuesday night, whereas Lille faced PSV Eindhoven away from home in the Europa League on Thursday night. Those extra couple of days of preparation may prove crucial when the sides take to the field.

The field is the third factor: it resembles a potato patch at the moment, which is a major handicap for a side like Lille who enjoy playing fast, precise football on the ground. Lyon prefer knocking the ball around, too, but have been excellent from set-pieces in the past few weeks as Yoann Gourcuff has finally found his range from corners and free-kicks. In a game where aerial accuracy might prove crucial, Lyon have the upper hand.

Lille are too short at [2.24] to win. Either lay the hosts at [2.26], or back Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian handicap at [2.02].

Best Bet: Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian handicap at Lille @ [2.02].
Other Recommended Bet: PSG v Toulouse over 2.5 goals @ [2.16].

PSG are always great value for entertainment and their dodgy defence means overs backers are rewarded. So have Toulouse got the attack to exploit them? Meanwhile, James Eastham fancies Lyon to cause Lille problems on a potato patch....

The ever-in-form James Eastham talks us through his best selections ahead of another weekend of Ligue 1 action....

Lille are still six points clear at the top of Ligue 1 but they could have been further ahead had both Marseille and Lyon not come from behind to win tough away matches. But a tiring side and a poor...

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Ligue 1 Betting: A Nice price

French Football / James Eastham / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Danijel Ljuboja is congratulated by Nice coach Eric Roy

"Nice may be struggling near the foot of the table but boast impressive stats of W5-D3-L3 on home soil. Only league leaders Lille have won there in the past three months."

The ever-in-form James Eastham talks us through his best selections ahead of another weekend of Ligue 1 action.

Lyon (5th) v Nancy (14th) (Friday, 7.45pm kick-off UK time)

Lyon have scored nine times in four games since the start of the New Year, including four away to bitter rivals St Etienne (4-1) last weekend. Yoann Gourcuff has been in miserable form all season but finally found his range from set-pieces, setting up Lyon's first two goals from corners.

Nancy's games feature lots of goals because their defence is among the worst in the division (only wooden-spoon holders Arles have conceded more) but Julien Feret in one of the division's best playmakers and Youssouf Hadji a combative striker with good finishing skills. The pair were excellent in last week's 3-1 win over Auxerre, with supporting cast Alexandre Cuvillier and Marama Vahirua equally influential.
Seven of Nancy's 11 away league games and their last six home and away in all competitions have featured over 2.5 goals.

Lorient (11th) v Bordeaux (9th) (Sat, 8pm)

It took Lorient's players a short time to adapt to the artificial surface laid at their Stade du Moustoir last summer but the new pitch has turned into a key asset over the past five months. Since mid-September their record on it in all competitions is W9-D2-L0, including clean sheets in their last four league outings. Lorient also boast the division's in-form striker in Kevin Gameiro, who has scored six goals in his last four games.

Bordeaux are a shadow of the side that lifted the league title two seasons ago. They've won only one of their last nine fixtures and have recorded just one victory on the road against sides currently outside the bottom six. Goalkeeper Cedric Carrasso is one of the most overworked in the division.
Lorient are far too big at [2.50].

Nice (16th) v PSG (4th) (Sun, 4pm)

Nice may be struggling near the foot of the table but boast impressive stats of W5-D3-L3 on home soil. Only league leaders Lille have won there in the past three months.

This is a good time to face PSG, too: the visitors have failed score in their past two league games and had a difficult Europa League game against BATE Borisov in sub-zero conditions in Minsk on Thursday night. Only three of PSG's first-team squad (Sylvain Armand, Siaka Tiene and Claude Makelele) missed that game so the squad will be tired this weekend.

The price on Nice avoiding defeat looks too big.

Nice (16th) v PSG (4th) (Sun, 4pm) and Toulouse (8th) v Rennes (2nd) (Sun, 8pm)

This is the under goals multiple selection of the weekend.

Nice's last 14 games have all had under 2.5 goals. Les Aiglon
s are the division's second-lowest scorers with just 15 from 23 games. They have an average goals-per-game count of 1.81.

PSG have failed to score in their last two league games and two of three away matches. The entire attack is suffering as a result of star man Nene's poor form.

Toulouse are one of the division's most shot-shy sides. They didn't manage a single attempt on target in last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Lille. Fifteen of their 23 (65%) matches have had under 2.5 goals.

Rennes' away stats are remarkable: eight scored and 11 conceded gives a goal-per-game count of 1.73. Eight of those 11 away games - and eight of their last 10 home and away - have featured under 2.5 goals.
An under 2.5 goals double on these two games pays out at [2.36].

Best Bet:

Lorient to beat Bordeaux @ [2.50].

Other Recommended Bets: Lyon v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ [2.00]; Nice +0.25 v PSG at [2.05]; Nice v PSG and Toulouse v Rennes under 2.5 goals double @ [2.36].

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Ligue 1 Betting: Marvellous Marvin can derail Marseille's title charge

French Football / James Eastham / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Marvin Martin celebrates after a French Cup goal

"Marseille have played poorly since the turn of the year. A fortnight ago coach Didier Deschamps labelled his side "rubbish" after their 0-0 draw at Monaco. Last Saturday, l'OM squeaked a 1-0 home win against wooden-spoon holders Arles as Marseille fans brandished a "move your ass" banner."

Ace French football tipster James Eastham brings another round of value bets from Ligue 1

Sochaux (12th) v Marseille (4th) (Saturday, 18:00 kick-off UK time)
Sochaux are French football's great entertainers, the team neutrals would pay to see if they had a spare Saturday night. And they're good enough to get a point against Marseille this weekend.
Les Doubistes boast the division's joint-best home record (W7-D3-L1) and are the highest home scorers (2.4 goals a game). Among their victims are top-five sides Rennes and PSG, thrashed 5-1 and 3-1 respectively at Stade Bonal.
Forwards Modibo Maiga and Brown Ideye are Ligue 1's most prolific strike partnership (nine goals each) but star of the show is playmaker Marvin Martin, who tops Ligue 1's assists chart. A former Sochaux coach recently told me Martin is already good enough to play for Barcelona; known as 'little Xavi', Martin will grace the international arena soon.
Marseille have played poorly since the turn of the year. A fortnight ago coach Didier Deschamps labelled his side "rubbish" after their 0-0 draw at Monaco. Last Saturday, l'OM squeaked a 1-0 home win against wooden-spoon holders Arles as Marseille fans brandished a "move your ass" banner.
Sochaux look excellent value at [3.6]. Either back them to win, or at [2.38] with a 0 start on the Asian handicap.

St Etienne (5th) v Lyon (6th) (Sat, 20:00)
Who needs Dimitri Payet? St Etienne stood firm against the deadline-day wishes of their star player after he travelled without permission to Paris in the hope of signing for PSG and then skipped training when St Etienne refused to sell. Last weekend the highly-regarded France winger was banished to play for the reserves as punishment for his actions, and without him St Etienne's first-team won 2-1 at Montpellier.
St Etienne have emerged stronger from the affair, and look too big to get a result against increasingly anxious local rivals Lyon. A 13-match unbeaten run from October to January hauled Lyon back into the title race but a 2-1 defeat at Valenciennes a fortnight ago and 0-0 home draw v Bordeaux last weekend has put them under immense pressure going into this game because they cannot afford to fall any further behind leaders Lille, who have a seven-point lead over them at the moment.
St Etienne gained their first victory over Lyon in 16 years when they won 1-0 at Stade de Gerland last October, and will be confident of completing the double. Les Verts are certainly the value pick, so back them at [3.3], lay Lyon at [2.5] or back St Etienne 0 Asian handicap at [2.3].

Lille (1st) v Toulouse (7th) (Sun, 20:00)
Lille have been the best team in France all season and deserve their five-point advantage over their rivals but obvious signs of fatigue have emerged in the past fortnight.
The title favourites were unconvincing 1-0 winners over relegation-threatened Lens on January 29, needed penalties to beat Ligue 2 side Nantes in the French Cup 10 days ago and managed only one shot on target - an alarmingly low figure for the division's top scorers - as they drew 1-1 at Auxerre last Sunday. I expect more dropped points in the weeks ahead as the Europa League recommences and they face Lorient in the French Cup quarter-finals.
Visitors Toulouse appear ready to cause an upset. Last weekend's 2-0 win over Monaco was their most accomplished performance of the season. Their athletic style will trouble Lille on a Stade Metropole pitch resembling a potato patch.
Lille might nick it, but I can't see them winning by more than one goal. By backing Toulouse +1.0 Asian handicap, you'll get your stakes back if they lose by a single goal, and win should the visitors win or draw.

Best Bet: Sochaux 0 Asian handicap v Marseille @ [2.38].
Other Recommended Bets: St Etienne 0 Asian handicap v Lyon @ [2.3] and Toulouse +1.0 Asian handicap at Lille @ [2.00].

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