Ligue 1 Betting: Marvellous Marvin can derail Marseille's title charge

French Football / James Eastham / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Marvin Martin celebrates after a French Cup goal

"Marseille have played poorly since the turn of the year. A fortnight ago coach Didier Deschamps labelled his side "rubbish" after their 0-0 draw at Monaco. Last Saturday, l'OM squeaked a 1-0 home win against wooden-spoon holders Arles as Marseille fans brandished a "move your ass" banner."

Ace French football tipster James Eastham brings another round of value bets from Ligue 1

Sochaux (12th) v Marseille (4th) (Saturday, 18:00 kick-off UK time)
Sochaux are French football's great entertainers, the team neutrals would pay to see if they had a spare Saturday night. And they're good enough to get a point against Marseille this weekend.
Les Doubistes boast the division's joint-best home record (W7-D3-L1) and are the highest home scorers (2.4 goals a game). Among their victims are top-five sides Rennes and PSG, thrashed 5-1 and 3-1 respectively at Stade Bonal.
Forwards Modibo Maiga and Brown Ideye are Ligue 1's most prolific strike partnership (nine goals each) but star of the show is playmaker Marvin Martin, who tops Ligue 1's assists chart. A former Sochaux coach recently told me Martin is already good enough to play for Barcelona; known as 'little Xavi', Martin will grace the international arena soon.
Marseille have played poorly since the turn of the year. A fortnight ago coach Didier Deschamps labelled his side "rubbish" after their 0-0 draw at Monaco. Last Saturday, l'OM squeaked a 1-0 home win against wooden-spoon holders Arles as Marseille fans brandished a "move your ass" banner.
Sochaux look excellent value at [3.6]. Either back them to win, or at [2.38] with a 0 start on the Asian handicap.

St Etienne (5th) v Lyon (6th) (Sat, 20:00)
Who needs Dimitri Payet? St Etienne stood firm against the deadline-day wishes of their star player after he travelled without permission to Paris in the hope of signing for PSG and then skipped training when St Etienne refused to sell. Last weekend the highly-regarded France winger was banished to play for the reserves as punishment for his actions, and without him St Etienne's first-team won 2-1 at Montpellier.
St Etienne have emerged stronger from the affair, and look too big to get a result against increasingly anxious local rivals Lyon. A 13-match unbeaten run from October to January hauled Lyon back into the title race but a 2-1 defeat at Valenciennes a fortnight ago and 0-0 home draw v Bordeaux last weekend has put them under immense pressure going into this game because they cannot afford to fall any further behind leaders Lille, who have a seven-point lead over them at the moment.
St Etienne gained their first victory over Lyon in 16 years when they won 1-0 at Stade de Gerland last October, and will be confident of completing the double. Les Verts are certainly the value pick, so back them at [3.3], lay Lyon at [2.5] or back St Etienne 0 Asian handicap at [2.3].

Lille (1st) v Toulouse (7th) (Sun, 20:00)
Lille have been the best team in France all season and deserve their five-point advantage over their rivals but obvious signs of fatigue have emerged in the past fortnight.
The title favourites were unconvincing 1-0 winners over relegation-threatened Lens on January 29, needed penalties to beat Ligue 2 side Nantes in the French Cup 10 days ago and managed only one shot on target - an alarmingly low figure for the division's top scorers - as they drew 1-1 at Auxerre last Sunday. I expect more dropped points in the weeks ahead as the Europa League recommences and they face Lorient in the French Cup quarter-finals.
Visitors Toulouse appear ready to cause an upset. Last weekend's 2-0 win over Monaco was their most accomplished performance of the season. Their athletic style will trouble Lille on a Stade Metropole pitch resembling a potato patch.
Lille might nick it, but I can't see them winning by more than one goal. By backing Toulouse +1.0 Asian handicap, you'll get your stakes back if they lose by a single goal, and win should the visitors win or draw.

Best Bet: Sochaux 0 Asian handicap v Marseille @ [2.38].
Other Recommended Bets: St Etienne 0 Asian handicap v Lyon @ [2.3] and Toulouse +1.0 Asian handicap at Lille @ [2.00].

Ace French football tipster James Eastham brings another round of value bets from Ligue 1...

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Serie A Betting: Roma to derail Inter from the title race

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mirko Vucinic is just the sort of player who can give Inter's defence real trouble this weekend

"It was Palermo’s movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri’s team. They certainly shouldn’t be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night. "

There's a big match this weekend involving two of the three sides who can realistically challenge AC Milan for the Serie A title. The winner will be in a strong position to test the Rossoneri and it may turn out to be outsiders Roma.

Inter v Roma

The only two teams who look like realistically challenging Milan for the Scudetto go head to head on Sunday night in a game which will define the rest of their seasons.

Had Napoli managed to win in Chievo on Wednesday, then you could add their name to the list, but I just don't see how they can recover from a blow like that, and it's down to Leonardo and Claudio Ranieri to throw down a challenge to Massimiliano Allegri. Both teams need Milan to slip up, but if they can win their games in hand, Roma could close to six points behind the Rossoneri, and Inter to four.

That equation makes Sunday crucial, and makes a draw of little use to either side. Given Inter's porous defence, and Leonardo's gung ho style, it's tempting to tip over 2.5 goals at [1.83], but there's so much riding on the game that I could see the ninety minutes being a little more stifling than people think.

Given the extent to which Inter have got away with it in recent weeks, though, I do think Roma are a bet at [4.1]. They'll miss Phillippe Mexes, but Inter look light at the back as well, and if Palermo can get to within a penalty miss and some bad defending of beating the Nerazzurri, then Roma can certainly do a job on them.

It was Palermo's movement that troubled Inter, and that makes the contribution of Mirko Vucinic crucial. If he fires, then I fancy Ranieri's team. They certainly shouldn't be the price that they currently are against a team who struggled to break down awful Bari on Thursday night.

Vucinic got the winner when Roma beat Inter back in September, and the visitors will have happy memories of winning here against Milan before the winter break. I just think that the style of the game suits Roma, and don't forget the joy they will derive if they can beat a team containing Giampaolo Pazzini. It was his goal for Sampdoria in Rome last season which effectively cost Roma the title. It could be a Roma win against Pazzini that ignites their challenge this time round. An if you want to take a chance at a bigger price, then now is the time to punt Roma for the title at [13.5]. They're no good things, but with Milan and Inter both overrated, there are worse bets.

Recommended Bet: Back Roma to beat Inter @ [4.1]

Lecce v Palermo

Anyone who gambles and indeed writes a column like this can fall foul of backing teams that have served them particularly well over the years, and a friend at work rather sarcastically asked if I fancied goals in the Inter against Palermo game last week.

He confidently told me that I had a blind spot about Palermo and that he's be selling goals on the spreads. My only regret was that the game only had five goals, rather than the seven or eight that it really should have produced, as I wanted to obliterate the smile from his his face, rather than simply wipe it off. I accept, though, that I have a blind spot for the men in pink (the "the" in that sentence is key), which is largely down to the amazing hospitality that you encounter when you visit the Renzo Barbera.

Smiling faces and impossibly beautiful women serving fresh espresso at half time will always win me over. Palermo are at Lecce on Sunday, and will still have bad memories of the extent to which Lecce pushed them when the sides met in Sicily.

Palermo trailed 2-0, and needed a late late equaliser to salvage a draw. This should be a similarly open game, with Lecce unlikely to sit back, and Palermo able to counter attack and over run Gigi Di Canio's team. Both teams will probably score, but I'll give that option a swerve at [1.7] or thereabout, and instead will go with Palermo to fire again, and be vulnerable enough defensively to make this an entertaining game. I expected over 2.5 goals to be round about the [1.8] mark, which makes the [1.98] which is available, a bit of value.

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Palermo @ [1.98]

Two final thoughts for this week. One is that Cesena might be overpriced to cause a massive upset in Naples at [17.0]. Napoli were dreadful in midweek and are looking very leggy at the moment. (You should be looking to back an excellent Villarreal side to beat them in the Europa League).

And the second is that, if Andy Carroll is worth 35 million pounds, then what price Giampaolo Pazzini? Well, the answer is 11.5 million which he instantly started to repay with his remarkable substitute performance for Inter against Palermo. The perception that Italian strikers don't travel well to England is being confirmed by Mario Balotelli, but surely Spurs or Liverpool should have taken a punt on Pazzini.

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