Follow The Money: Captain Chris to cause Ryanair upset?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Captain Chris has had significant support to move from [16.5] in to [12.0]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Towcester and Hexham.

Our first race is the 14:40 at Cheltenham where Captain Chris has had significant support to move from [16.5] in to [12.0]. On the face of it he has it all to do after a poor run in the Argento here in January. However, he had some classy types behind him (including yesterday's Champion Chase victor Finian's Rainbow) when winning last year's Arkle impressively. He obviously has talent in abundance, with the trip and ground expected to suit. If all is well, and the signs in the market suggest that they are, he could run a huge race at a tasty price.

For our next selection we go to the 15:05 at Towcester where there has been an early move for Marodima. Course form can be significant round this most punishing of tracks, and Marodima has the all important CD letters by his name. He has been running in better races than this, albeit over the bigger obstacles, but his hurdling form is also decent. He is also a multiple winner on all types of going and is best seen at this trip. Punters seem to have latched on to this one with an air of confidence backing from [3.65] in to [2.58] so the obvious recommendation is a back bet.

Our lay of the day can be found in the 15:35 at Hexham where Mr Woods has been drifting from [2.86] out to [3.75]. He has won his last two runs on heavy ground so is obviously in good form. However, this will be his third run in a week, with today's trip over a marathon 4 miles. His last try at this trip came here in November on soft ground, and he finished well down the field that day. It seems the market, while not totally dismissing his chances of the hat-trick, obviously didn't want to side with him at the skinny prices offered earlier. His latest exertions may well catch up with him today so the recommendation is a lay.

Recommended Bets
Back Captain Chris @ [12.0] Cheltenham 14:40
Back Marodima @ [2.60] Towcester 15:05
Lay Mr Woods @ [3.70] Hexham 15:35

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Huntingdon and Southwell....

The Follow The Money team aren't fixated by Cheltenham, making just one pick from the Festival's first day offerings and including runners at Sedgefield and Southwell instead. Winners are winners, of course, so will their tactics prove successful?...

Today's Follow The Money selection can be found at Plumpton, Stratford and Taunton....

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Six Nations Betting: Young England backs could upset France

General / Ralph Ellis / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can England's youngsters take the fight to France this Sunday?

Danny Care is in trouble again but, on the pitch, Ralph Ellis believes that English rugby could have something to celebrate this weekend...

Danny Care does not have a drink problem - at least not according to Stuart Lancaster. The Harlequins scrum-half, who should have been playing the same role for England, has just been nicked for his third alcohol-related misdemeanour in a matter of months. But Lancaster says his problems are about "making bad decisions" rather than because of a reliance on drink. You hope that England's interim manager is just being diplomatic in public, because if he really thinks that, then he's kidding himself as well as everybody else.

When I talked to Danny for Betfair's Big Interview at the start of the World Cup back in November, I thought he was a smashing young man. He dealt with his own injury, which had robbed him of the chance to play in New Zealand, with great humour, and he spoke with insight about the prospects for Martin Johnson's team. So I don't want to do him down now.

But the bottom line is that a professional athlete's idea of drinking should be all about water, energy drinks and rehydration - and not necking so much booze that you get caught short in a taxi on the way home. When Care was arrested for being drunk and disorderly back in December it might have been a single aberration. A drink driving offence on New Year's Day should really have told him he had to change. Three times says there's an underlying problem.
What the Quins star clearly needs is some care with a small 'c', and some education and you hope that behind the public words that is exactly what will happen. One of Lancaster's key moves when he took charge was to tackle the issue that elite sport and excessive alcohol don't mix.

One thing he has got right is warning Care that there are now three scrum-halves in front of him and the only man who can change that pecking order is the one who has let himself fall so far down the rankings.

It will be a vital position to get right in Paris this Sunday. The return of Morgan Parra to his natural role for France means England's number nine will be fully tested. But Lee Dickson was excellent in the early part of the Twickenham clash with Wales, and showed there could be great potential in a budding partnership with Saracens' imaginative fly-half Owen Farrell.

Having backed England for the Twickenham game, I laid them in running - which was a chicken thing to do but ultimately proved a good decision. I bet Lancaster wished he'd been able to press a "cash out now" button half-way through that game!

England are [3.75] to win on Sunday and that has to be value, even if it is only a back to lay bet again. France weren't all that impressive against Ireland, whatever the merits of their second-half comeback. And if Lancaster's new half-back pairing can function as effectively again then there's definitely the potential to unleash the backs. Who knows? They might even open some space for Chris Ashton to rediscover his flair. But as for drinking to celebrate - let's leave that to the fans.

Five things you might not know about Morgan Parra
1. Born November 1988 in Metz, France, his electrician dad Antonio is Portuguese but had moved to France to take a part-time job coaching Lorraine's rugby team. Mother Valerie is a teacher in a home for the mentally handicapped.

2. Morgan was four when he first played rugby at Metz. Spotted for his talent, he was brought into the French academy system and spent two years at their national rugby centre at Marcoussis, as well as winning a French Under21 Championship title with CSBJ.

3. French rules forbid anybody playing senior rugby until the age of 18 - Parra was three days past his birthday when he made his debut for Bourgoin in a Top 14 match against Agen. Bourgoin won 31-18.

4. When he made his senior international debut in February 2008 against Scotland made him the 11th youngest ever to appear for the country.

5. He's training part-time to become an architect when he finishes playing - and has designed his own house which he is currently having built.

The draw between France and Ireland was backed at [42.0] on Betfair but what does the result mean for the rest of the tournament? And can England take advantage of France's patchy defence next weekend? Richard O'Hagan reports....

France and Ireland produce a draw in Paris to hand Wales the Six Nations initiative......

Richard O'Hagan looks back at what happened this weekend and what might happen in the remaining matches of the tournament, which Wales are now the strong favourites to win....

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Dubai Tennis Championships: Can Murray upset Djokovic bros?

Events / Sean Calvert / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Andy prevail in Dubai?

"Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he’s not an awful price at around [2.38], but it’s worth taking a chance with Murray this week at palatable [8.0]."

It's a family affair in Dubai this week for the world number one, but Sean Calvert fancies a wager on Andy Murray at more attractive odds...

We were unlucky with our bet on Milos Raonic in Memphis last week, but as the Canadian reached the final, he was available to lay at [1.33] from the initial [3.5].

The ATP Tour moves on to Dubai, Acapulco and Delray Beach this week, with the world's top stars drawn to the $1.7 million prize pot on offer at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Shamelessly, the tournament has given wildcards to three-time defending champion, Novak Djokovic's brother Marco and Victoria Azarenka's boyfriend Sergei Bubka.

For the record, Marco Djokovic is ranked 867 in the world and has been playing with little success in Futures events in Turkey lately, while Bubka is the world number 158 and has one Challenger title to his name from back in 2009.

So, instead of handing the valuable wild cards to deserving causes, the tournament has gone for the 'it's not what you know but who you know' option and given them to friends and family of the male and female world number ones.

The draw has paired Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic and Tomas Berdych together in the top half, along with Nikolay Davydenko and Ivan Ljubicic.

The bottom half sees Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, and Alexandr Dolgopolov as the main contenders.

Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he's not an awful price at around [2.38], but it's worth taking a chance with Murray this week at more palatable [8.0].

The Scot normally indulges in his traditional post-Melbourne malaise at this time of the year, but with Ivan Lendl looking on, Murray is more likely to make a fist of this event than he has done in the last few years.

Two quarter-final exits have been Murray's best showings here, but he'll surely put in a better effort this time to show not just Lendl, but everyone else as well, that he's edging closer to the top three after his Melbourne performances.

He pushed Nole very close in their Australian Open semi and he leads the world number one 4-2 in matches on outdoor hard-courts over the best of three sets.

A concern for the Scot would be the likely match he faces against Tomas Berdych in the last eight here this week.

Murray hasn't beaten the Czech since 2005 and for my money, Berdych is a decent long shot this week at around the [29] mark.

The Berdman has been playing well so far in 2012 with a win in Montpelier and a semi-final in Rotterdam to add to his Australian Open effort. He reached the semi-finals here last year before retiring against Djokovic in what was a tight match and he could go close again this time.

The only other player with chances in the top half of the draw is Tipsarevic, who is priced up this week at around the [50.0] mark, but it's hard to see him beating Djokovic, Murray/Berdych and then probably Federer in consecutive matches.

Tipsy hasn't been in the best touch this year either and was thrashed by Gasquet in Melbourne and beaten in Marseille by Michael Llodra last week. In the bottom half, I expect Federer to be the man to reach the final, as he has a fairly straightforward looking quarter, with the inconsistent Fish perhaps an obstacle before a likely semi-final against either Del Potro or Tsonga.

Delpo will surely be a touch jaded after two finals in two weeks and I can't see him busting a gut here with Indian Wells just around the corner. In any case, Federer has his number at the moment.

Tsonga looks a better prospect for semi final material, but the big Frenchman hasn't kicked on from his fine end to 2011 and he has something to prove this week. To sum up then, Djokovic is the obvious choice, but at a bigger price I'll take a chance on Murray with a small saver on Berdych.

If you fancy a real outsiders shot this week, consider Ernests Gulbis, who is around [22.0] to win at Delray Beach. Ernie has no form whatsoever with a stack of first round losses to his name, but he came here in 2010 with similar form and won it.

On the basis that he might well enjoy this event more than most, and the fact that he has a very handy draw in the bottom half, he's worth thinking about this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray at around [8.0]

Long shot
Berdych at around [29.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Roger Federer did the business for Sean last week as Milos Raonic was winning a tournament of his own over in San Jose. And it is Raonic who is worth backing again this week, as the ATP tour moves to...

Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like,...

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....

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Australian Open Tips: Na Li to upset the defending champ

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Na Li looks in fantastic shape physically and is in good form

"Clijsters had to be at her best to take Na Li out last time here and
the form that the Chinese player has shown in the last few weeks is
more than good enough to beat a less than 100% Clijsters in my view,
so the current odds look worth taking."

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in good enough form to beat her, says Sean Calvert.

It was another perfect day for followers of my tips on Day 6 of the 2012 Australian Open with both Kei Nishikori and Sabine Lisicki both obliging to make it 11 out of 12 so far this week.

With our accounts looking healthy it's time to take a chance on an odds-against shot on Day 7 at Melbourne Park and last year's finalist Na Li is my first bet tonight.

The Chinese star is a very backable [2.44] to take revenge for her loss in last year's final to Kim Clijsters, who by my reckoning isn't at her best so far in this tournament in terms of fitness.

The Belgian has been functional against some average opponents and this is probably because she's not had much tennis in the last six months.

Clijsters had to be at her best to take Na Li out last time here and the form that the Chinese player has shown in the last few weeks is more than good enough to beat a less than 100% Clijsters in my view, so the current odds look worth taking.

Another bet worth consideration is Jelena Jankovic's price in her match against world number one in name only, Caroline Wozniacki.

Jankovic has shown much improved form lately and there are still concerns over Wozniacki's injured wrist.

This clash of two defensive pushers could go long and I like the [2.9]
about Jankovic in that one.

On the men's side today, it's worth sticking with the kid that's made us few quid this week, local hero Bernard Tomic.

The awkward 19-year-old probably won't have enough left in the tank after a few long matches to defeat Federer, but I think he'll be good enough to take a set off the Swiss maestro, so the bet is a lay of 3-0 Federer at around [1.78].

The pair have met just the once so far and that was on grass in the Davis
Cup a few months ago. Tomic took a set that day and his deceptively effective style of play should have enough about it to trouble the world number three.

It's a big ask for Tomic to pull off a shock, but it will be fascinating to see how much the Aussie has improved lately when the pair clash at 8am UK time on Sunday.

Recommended Bets

Back Na Li to beat Clijsters at [2.44]
Lay Federer 3-0 v Tomic at [1.78]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says...

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League One Betting: Owls to upset title favourites?

English Football League / Alan Dudman / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Former Bury forward Ryan Lowe has just joined Sheffield Wednesday

"The Owls have finally got their goal-getter in Ryan Lowe, and he should link up well with the big forward Gary Madine, whose hold-up play is good, and is magnificent in the air."

League One takes centre stage during the international break, and Alan Dudman believes Sheffield Wednesday can upset title favourites Charlton in front of the Sky cameras on Monday evening.

Charlton [1.98] v Sheffield Wednesday [3.4]; The Draw [3.5]

(Monday 5th September, Live on Sky Sports One, 19:45)

An intriguing match in front of the cameras, with a case to be made for both. Charlton are now a force to be reckoned with in the division, and trade as title favourites at [5.0], having picked up 13 points from an excellent start to their season. They remain unbeaten.

Sheffield Wednesday have won all three of their home games this term, but haven't been as good on their travels (losing both). However, manager Gary Megson has got them trying to pass the ball, and he's also landed the much needed striker in the transfer window.

Charlton sealed a 2-1 win at Bury on Saturday, but found themselves soaking up lots of pressure from the hosts. The Shakers can be quite a physical side, and the Addicks found themselves sitting far too deep, forcing themselves to go long. Bury's forward Ryan Lowe caused the Londoners lots of problems last weekend, and he's just signed for Sheffield Wednesday.

The Owls have finally got their goal-getter in Lowe, and he should link up well with the big forward Gary Madine, whose hold-up play is good, and is magnificent in the air. Lowe will be the craftier of the two, in a potentially decent strike force.

Wednesday are showing good signs, and Saturday's 3-2 win against Scunthorpe showed some improvement, in particular the ball out from wide. It might be enough to tempt in small wager on the away side, with a cover on the Over 2.5 Goals - as both are capable of scoring.

Back Sheffield Wednesday to beat Charlton @ [3.4]
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.04]
Back Johnnie Jackson First Goalscorer @ [13.0] or bigger

Scunthorpe [2.34] v Colchester [3.2]; The Draw [3.6]

Scunthorpe have not enjoyed the best start to life in League One, although one or two of those games were harsh on the Iron. They have been unlucky yes, but manager Alan Knill is fed up of the 'unlucky' moniker.

Knill's problem has been his side's inability to keep possession, whilst the defence has been making far too many individual errors. On the plus side, Scunthorpe have got goals in them, and they do look dangerous in the opponents half - having showed that in the 3-2 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday.

Those two factors lead me to believe goals will be scored in this game. The fact they are playing Colchester seals the deal.

The Essex outfit have scored 15 goals in the seven league and cup games they've played this season, and have hit the Over 2.5 Goals make-up five times already. Colchester are hugely entertaining, and like to attack especially on their travels. There is no chance manager John Ward will go for a 0-0, as his team are brimming with confidence having blasted away Oldham last weekend.

Colchester's Anthony Wordsworth is playing the best football of his career, whilst Ian Henderson has already bagged four. Hopefully some more entertainment is in store.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.85]
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [3.2]
Back 2-2 @ [10.0] & 2-3 @ [22.0]

Notts County [2.18] v Bournemouth [3.8], The Draw [3.4]

Bournemouth look a side struggling at the moment, and Saturday's 2-0 home defeat to Walsall is miles away from last term's exciting play under Eddie Howe. The Cherries can't seem to break teams down at the moment, not surprising considering their best strikers have all been sold.

Manager Lee Bradbury has got his team plugging away, but they lack any kind of goal threat, and worryingly trade at [3.5] in the relegation market.

Notts County look a far more rugged and resilient outfit. Saturday's 2-0 defeat at Preston was harsh, considering both goals were late (and one from the goalkeeper). The Magpies defended really well at Deepdale, and kept out a dangerous side for long periods.

Back Notts County to beat Bournemouth @ [2.18]
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [2.0]
Back 1-0 Correct Score @ [9.2]
Back Notts County Clean Sheet @ [3.1]

Ian Lamont explains why he's sticking with Morecambe - for now - as he looks ahead to the weekend's League Two action......

Every weekend, four of betting.betfair's football writers will contribute one selection each from the top four leagues in English football, giving you, the readers, an exciting Multiple option....

After demolishing Premier League outfit Norwich in midweek Alan Dudman believes MK Dons will put in another good display this weekend under the excellent leadership of Karl Robinson....

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US Open Stat Attack: Boy from Brazil can upset home fans

US Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will the sun set on Ginepri's challenge?

"Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent."

Ben Caudell explains why he expects an in-form Brazilian to upset an ailing American at Flushing Meadow today. Meanwhile, there's a lay of the day in the women's draw...

Five Reasons to Back

Joao Souza (BRA) to defeat Robby Ginepri (USA) @ [2.68]

• The 23-year-old Brazilian has hit a purple patch of form, winning nine of his last 11 matches, including making it through three rounds of qualifying to leap into the US Open first round proper for the first time in his fledging career.

• Souza is ranked at an all-time high of 90 in the world, 253 places higher than his opponent. Almost a year ago, Ginepri underwent left arm surgery after a biking accident. The American has been back in action since June and his results have been mixed; however, he has been unable to defeat a player ranked in the top 100.

• The hard courts at Flushing Meadows are reasonably slow and this can only favour the Brazilian who will be fitter and more accustomed to playing best of five sets. Ginepri is unlikely to be in peak physical condition and I believe he'll struggle to win three sets, especially as he has been away for so long. His last Grand Slam win came back in May 2009 at the French Open.

• Souza has a superior surface rating and match statistics, winning 63% within the last 12 months compared with 46% for Ginepri.

• Souza reached the semi-final of Kitzbuhel at the end of July, eventually losing to Robin Haase in three sets, after going on a six match winning streak. Ginepri has lost to players such as James Ward, ranked 174, and Ryyne Williams ranked 608.

2-0 lay of the day - lay Shuai Peng 2-0 v Tsvetana Pironkova @ [1.81]

• Peng leads the head-to-head 1-0 but Pironkova took the first set in Hobart 2011
• Pironkova has a good record at Grand Slams (7-3), reaching the 2011 Wimbledon quarter-final before losing to the eventual champion Petra Kvitova in three sets
• Peng has withdrawn from her last two hard-court tournaments, Cincinnati and Toronto, due to an unknown injury.

Sean Calvert tells us why Sabine Lisicki should be far too strong for her multiple Grand Slam winner opponent tonight and what other good bets lie in wait for us on day three of the US Open....

"And I'm on Kavcic tonight, you know my stats don't lie and I'm starting to feel it's right...to oppose Ivan Ljubicic", Ben Caudell chants from underneath his pile of stats books. Here are today's two bets....

Sean's buzzing after a successful start to a fortnight at Flushing Meadows. Can he land another pair of value bets on day two?...

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Cresswell Pride can cause an upset

Timeform Radio Tip / Harry Bowles / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow Harry's Sunday selections?

"The one who appeals most in Stratford's 15:50 is Cresswell Pride."

It might be Irish Oaks day, but it's the jumps meetings at Stratford and Newton Abbot which provide the venue for this afternoon's selections, writes Harry Bowles.

The betting for Stratford's 19-furlong handicap hurdle at 15:50 suggests an open race, and that is essentially the case with a number holding a chance. The one who appeals most, however, is Cresswell Pride. He showed his first piece of form since joining Lucy Jones when fifth at Ffos Las last month and, down another 4lb, that run is expected to trigger another step in the right direction. He gets the benefit of being partnered by Denis O'Regan for the first time and should be suited by the step up in trip. At the prices, he's a considerably more attractive betting proposition than the likes of Bon Spiel, Casper's Shadown and Chapel House.

The finale at Newton Abbot is a two-mile handicap chase and sees Temple Place as warm favourite. He has refound his form this season, no question, but his vulnerabilities were exposed to some extent when confidently ridden round here last time. Benefit Game is a legitimate alternative, but so to is Manjam, and he's the one to be with at his current price. True, he's been through various yards in his time, but it was an encouraging start for Tim Vaughan on what was his chasing debut at Worcester last month and, with that first outing in 13 months under his belt, it would be no surprise to see him progress significantly.

Recommended Bets
Back Cresswell Pride @ [10.5] in the 15:50 @ Stratford
Back Manjam @ [3.9] in the 17:05 @ Newton Abbot

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register & get your free card for Irish Oaks day at the Curragh this afternoon.

Terry Norman is excited about a Luca Cumani horse that will relish the rain this afternoon. Meanwhile, another selection has the chance to step up at Newbury....

Timeform Radio pundit Terry Norman has a pair of picks at Nottingham today...

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Rome Masters Betting Tips: Home favourite to cause an upset

Events / Sean Calvert / 11 May 2011 / 1 Comments

Filippo Volandri has a far better record in Rome than his ranking would suggest

"Today’s match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the
Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with
the home crowd right behind him."

We don't see too much of Filippo Volandri these days because most of his tennis is played on the Challenger circuit but Rome is his home tournament and he saves his best performances for here. Today he's up against Stan Wawrinka and has every chance...

It was a very profitable day at the Rome Masters on Tuesday as Sam Querrey got past Kevin Anderson, who retired in the second set after losing the first.

There are plenty of matches that I like the look of on Wednesday, with several attractive betting propositions catching my eye. The most likely of which to make us a profit being home favourite, Filippo Volandri, against Stan Wawrinka.

I'm a big fan of Stan, but he's been poor lately, with first match losses in his previous three tournaments prior to Rome.

The Swiss number two was also below par in his struggle of a win against another Italian, Fabio Fognini on Tuesday, where he had to come from a set down to force the victory.

Today's match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with the home crowd right behind him.

Volandri is more often seen on the Challenger circuit these days, but he loves it at the Foro Italico, where he's a former semi finalist and has beaten the likes of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, and Tomas Berdych.

Volandri also reached the last 16 in 2010, where he narrowly lost out to an inspired Ernests Gulbis, so he won't be fazed by taking on the "lesser Swiss" after beating Federer here in straights.

The 29-year-old from Livorno has been in good form lately too, with a final in the Napoli Challenger followed by a semi final in Belgrade and a thumping win over Thiemo de Bakker in the first round here.

All this represents better form than the awful defeats that Stan has had lately, including the [1.04] defeat to world number 109 Dustin Brown on the dirt in Munich, which preceded the first round loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Madrid last week.

So, for my money, the [1.57] on Wawrinka looks lay material and that's my best bet for Wednesday at the Rome Masters.

Recommended bet:

Lay Wawrinka at [1.57] versus Volandri

This match will lack the skills and subtleties of classic clay court tennis but let's not allow that to get in the way of making some money, says Sean Calvert....

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Tatispout can upset short price favourite

Timeform Radio Tip / Jeremy Grayson / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both today's selections are in action at Stratford

"Taking on a likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense... "

On the eve of Cheltenham, Jeremy Grayson selects a promising pair of runners that could get a big week off to a flyer...

The 2m7f handicap chase at Stratford (15:40) contains one animal who looks exceptionally well treated on his best form, but who also enters the race in good enough heart to think he can exploit that historically very low mark.

Daldini [4.0] can run off a 15lb lower rating than when recording a fifth chasing victory at Southwell over a year ago, and his most recent effort at Newcastle is not hard to mark up, as he was goaded into doing too much by rivals early on yet still had enough left once headed to box on for a creditable fourth place. Nothing is likely to take him on the same way here.

Importantly around this trappy venue, which claims its share of fallers, the Josr Algarhoud gelding remains a very safe conveyance in the main, with just two unseats and no falls in 48 runs over jumps (37 chases) all told. At least half of today's rivals, meanwhile, possess jumping issues of varying degrees of seriousness.

In addition, Sue Smith is already enjoying a splendid March, with five winners in the last 13 days having included three triumphs (one at 80-1) this last weekend alone.

Charlie Longsdon is another handler to have had a grand time of it just lately, with 44 jumps runners since the start of February garnering 12 winners (including one yesterday).

His filly Tatispout [5.7] gets into Stratford's feature handicap hurdle (16:10) off a flyweight. Confidence is high that she can defy a mark of 105 at the first time of asking, having shown clear improvement over each of three novice runs.

Already the winner of a 1m2f junior bumper on rattling fast ground in France last May, any further drying out of the surface here is unlikely to inconvenience her, and an 8lb age allowance rates another obvious plus.

With the McCoy-ridden Henderson handicap debutant Remember Now still having questions to answer regarding both willingness to settle in races and effectiveness on sounder surfaces, taking on that likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense.

Recommended bets:
Back Daldini @ [4.0] in the 15:40 @ Stratford
Back Tatispout @[5.7] on 16:10 @ Stratford

Rory Delargy will be in Timeform Radio's Cheltenham studio to go through today's racing at with Lorna Bradburne and he's found a monster bet at Market Rasen...

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NBA Weekend Tips: Raptors can pull off London upset

Basketball / Nick Shiambouros / 04 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Could DeMar DeRozan be the difference between the two teams at the O2 Arena?

"I think the Raptors have an excellent chance of winning both games. They are playing with a lot more enthusiasm that New Jersey which could be the deciding factor in both games."

Two struggling NBA teams play a weekend double at the O2 Arena and the underdog could win both, says Nick Shiambouros

The Orlando Magic beat the Miami Heat 99-96 in an epic encounter at the American Airlines Arena on Thursday evening. The Magic trailed by an incredible 24 points in the third quarter but went on a 40-9 run to secure a historic victory. This was the second largest comeback in Orlando franchise history and will be remembered for many years to come.

Jason Richardson was the leading scorer for Orlando with 24 points and was the most effective player on the floor.

This was a tough loss for Miami who have now fallen two games behind Boston in the Eastern Conference.

Over in the Western Conference the Denver Nuggets beat the Utah Jazz 103-101 in a very entertaining affair late on Thursday. The Nuggets have adjusted quickly to life without superstar guard Carmelo Anthony who was traded to New York last month. This was their third win in a row and they are playing some decent basketball.

Things have not worked out so well for Utah who have lost four out of five since they traded point guard Deron Williams to New Jersey. This team is in a real slump and will not make the post-season if they continue to play at this level.

This weekend history will be made in London when the New Jersey Nets and the Toronto Raptors play the league's first regular season games in Europe.

The Nets and the Raptors will play games on Friday and Saturday at London's O2 Arena. Both games are almost sold out which is great news for everyone concerned. There is a surprisingly large basketball fan base in the UK and I am certain these games will attract a wider audience.
The Nets come in to these games with a record of 17-43. As previously reported the Nets recently signed superstar point guard Deron Williams from Utah. This young man is one of the most talented players in the league and will play a big part in the future of this team.

Williams is nursing a strained tendon at present and his participation in Friday's game is in doubt. New Jersey coach Avery Johnson will not start Williams if there is the slightest doubt of aggravating the injury.

The Raptors have a record of 17-44 and are finding life very tough after the departure of Chris Bosh to Miami last summer. This young team has some talented players in the rotation including DeMar DeRozan who is an exciting long term prospect. This talented guard is averaging over 16 points per game as is a star in the making.

The Raptors are currently trading at [2.38] in the match odds market for both Game 1 and Game 2, which is surprising. The Nets are really struggling at the moment and are not playing with a great deal of intensity. They are playing like a team that cannot wait for the season to end.
I think the Raptors have an excellent chance of winning both games. They are playing with a lot more enthusiasm that New Jersey which could be the deciding factor in both games.
Recommended Wagers:
Friday back Toronto in the match odds market at [2.38]
Saturday back Toronto in the match odds market at [2.38]

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Ligue 1 Betting Preview: Can fabulous Lyon upset Lille?

French Football / James Eastham / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

"There are three good reasons to oppose Ligue 1 leaders Lille when they host title rivals Lyon at Stade Metropole on Sunday night."

PSG are always great value for entertainment and their dodgy defence means overs backers are rewarded. So have Toulouse got the attack to exploit them? Meanwhile, James Eastham fancies Lyon to cause Lille problems on a potato patch.

PSG v Toulouse - Sun, kick-off 16:00 UK time

After going a couple of games without scoring (1-0 defeat at Rennes and 0-0 home draw v Lens) PSG bounced back into form last weekend with a 3-0 win over relegation-threatened Nice. A sprightly performance from Nene was one of the biggest reasons behind their improvement: after a poor month by his own standards, the Brazilian left-winger was involved in all three goals on a day when the capital club had 11 shots on target.

PSG's chances of producing another high-scoring performance are higher than you would normally expect because Toulouse's fourth-choice goalkeeper, Ali Ahamada, will start. Yohann Pele, Mathieu Valverde and Marc Vidal (who went off injured last weekend) are all unavailable, so 20-year-old Ahamada - whose first task after coming on as a substitute against Rennes last weekend was to pick the ball out of the net when the visitors scored a penalty - will make his first senior start.

PSG will be confident in attack but are always liable to concede because they grant opponents so many scoring opportunities. Antoine Kombouare's side have kept just two clean sheets in their last 15 league games, so if Toulouse are just slightly more accurate than they were last weekend, when they twice hit the woodwork, the three-goal barrier should be broken.

Lille v Lyon - Sun, 20:00

There are three good reasons to oppose Ligue 1 leaders Lille when they host title rivals Lyon at Stade Metropole on Sunday night. The first is that Lille are experiencing their worst form since moving to the top of the table in December. Last weekend's 1-0 defeat at Montpelier was their first league loss since October 24 but no surprise considering how poorly they'd played in two of their previous three games (against Lens, 1-0, and Auxerre, 1-1). Lyon, in contrast, are in fabulous form: they put four past local rivals St Etienne (4-1) a fortnight ago and followed up with four more against Nancy (4-0) last weekend.

Fatigue is the second factor. Lille have played 39 games to Lyon's 34 this season. Just 18 outfield players have started league games for Lille, and four of those have started just once. Lyon coach Claude Puel has a larger pool of players to pick from so has been able to rest some of his more important players more regularly.

Lyon have had a couple more days to prepare for this game: they hosted Real Madrid in the Champions League (1-1) on Tuesday night, whereas Lille faced PSV Eindhoven away from home in the Europa League on Thursday night. Those extra couple of days of preparation may prove crucial when the sides take to the field.

The field is the third factor: it resembles a potato patch at the moment, which is a major handicap for a side like Lille who enjoy playing fast, precise football on the ground. Lyon prefer knocking the ball around, too, but have been excellent from set-pieces in the past few weeks as Yoann Gourcuff has finally found his range from corners and free-kicks. In a game where aerial accuracy might prove crucial, Lyon have the upper hand.

Lille are too short at [2.24] to win. Either lay the hosts at [2.26], or back Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian handicap at [2.02].

Best Bet: Lyon +0&+0.5 Asian handicap at Lille @ [2.02].
Other Recommended Bet: PSG v Toulouse over 2.5 goals @ [2.16].

PSG are always great value for entertainment and their dodgy defence means overs backers are rewarded. So have Toulouse got the attack to exploit them? Meanwhile, James Eastham fancies Lyon to cause Lille problems on a potato patch....

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