Downpatrick victory for Cause of Causes

"The good ground was a big help to him and while we were hoping for a good run today, we were also very conscious that he would be better for the outing. And so now it's all systems go for Galway."

Cause Of Causes, owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club, bounced right back to form to record his second victory over hurdles when landing the Winner Alright Hurdle at Downpatrick this afternoon.

The four-year-old really appreciated the better ground as he left behind the disappointment of his defeat on unsuitably testing ground at Perth on his previous start.
Today's run was expected to have brought him on nicely for the Galway Festival and trainer Gordon Elliott was thrilled with the manner of victory.

The winning handler said: "He won very nicely and we're delighted with him. Obviously he made a bad mistake at the last hurdle but other than that he was great. He picked up really well after the last and won a shade cosily.
"Paul (Carberry, jockey) said he travelled really well throughout and that he wouldn't have come off the bridle if he hadn't made that mistake.
"The good ground was a big help to him and while we were hoping for a good run today, we were also very conscious that he would be better for the outing. And so now it's all systems go for Galway.

"He'll have entries in the Galway Hurdle and a four-year-olds' conditions hurdle at the meeting. We'll have to wait until nearer the time before making a decision which way to go with him but this was a great boost, and we're looking forward to bringing him out again in a couple of weeks' time."

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Follow The Money: Captain Chris to cause Ryanair upset?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

"Captain Chris has had significant support to move from [16.5] in to [12.0]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Towcester and Hexham.

Our first race is the 14:40 at Cheltenham where Captain Chris has had significant support to move from [16.5] in to [12.0]. On the face of it he has it all to do after a poor run in the Argento here in January. However, he had some classy types behind him (including yesterday's Champion Chase victor Finian's Rainbow) when winning last year's Arkle impressively. He obviously has talent in abundance, with the trip and ground expected to suit. If all is well, and the signs in the market suggest that they are, he could run a huge race at a tasty price.

For our next selection we go to the 15:05 at Towcester where there has been an early move for Marodima. Course form can be significant round this most punishing of tracks, and Marodima has the all important CD letters by his name. He has been running in better races than this, albeit over the bigger obstacles, but his hurdling form is also decent. He is also a multiple winner on all types of going and is best seen at this trip. Punters seem to have latched on to this one with an air of confidence backing from [3.65] in to [2.58] so the obvious recommendation is a back bet.

Our lay of the day can be found in the 15:35 at Hexham where Mr Woods has been drifting from [2.86] out to [3.75]. He has won his last two runs on heavy ground so is obviously in good form. However, this will be his third run in a week, with today's trip over a marathon 4 miles. His last try at this trip came here in November on soft ground, and he finished well down the field that day. It seems the market, while not totally dismissing his chances of the hat-trick, obviously didn't want to side with him at the skinny prices offered earlier. His latest exertions may well catch up with him today so the recommendation is a lay.

Recommended Bets
Back Captain Chris @ [12.0] Cheltenham 14:40
Back Marodima @ [2.60] Towcester 15:05
Lay Mr Woods @ [3.70] Hexham 15:35

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Cheltenham, Huntingdon and Southwell....

The Follow The Money team aren't fixated by Cheltenham, making just one pick from the Festival's first day offerings and including runners at Sedgefield and Southwell instead. Winners are winners, of course, so will their tactics prove successful?...

Today's Follow The Money selection can be found at Plumpton, Stratford and Taunton....

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Australian Open Stat Attack: Makarova can cause a Shockarova over Sharapova

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hair today, out of the Australian Open by tomorrow.

"As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79)."

Two huge upsets could be on the cards according to the stats, says Ben Caudell. Novak Djokovic and Maria Sharapova backers beware...

Five Reasons to Back Ferrer +7.5 Games @ [2.24] and @ 8.80 to win match against Novak Djokovic (Small Bet)

David Ferrer is no mug, and the [8.80] inflated odds on the Spaniard pre-match looks to represent great value for the purpose of trading out at a shorter price. Even though Djokovic is close to near perfection as a tennis player, he is human after all, and therefore, as he did against Lleyton Hewitt, the Serbian can at times have the odd lapse in concentration. Not to mention a little nervous tension that can often go against him. Ferrer on other hand remains the same throughout; he is a dogged performer who grinds out result after result, a true gritty player and someone who will never give up. Therefore he is always worth backing irrespective of who he is playing and whenever he is priced as a massive underdog.

•Excluding any exhibition event, Ferrer has a decent record against Djokovic, having defeated the world number one on five occasions. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 6-5; however Ferrer was triumphant in their most recent competitive match - 6-3 6-2 - at the World Tour Finals in London, November 2011.

•Ferrer, who is now an established top ten ranked player at number five in the world, already has a tournament title to his name in 2012, the Auckland Open hard-court event. With his confidence at an all-time high, having also compiled wins over four top ten ranked players within the last three months - Rafael Nadal, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray - David Ferrer will come into this match-up with real optimism and self belief knowing that this could be his best ever Grand Slam result.

•The Spanish number two has a great record at the Australian Open; He reached the semi-final stage in 2011 and has won 90% of his last ten matches, and 72% since January 2000. Ferrer also comes into this match-up having won eight matches in a row, four in a row in Australia, eight in a row on hard-courts, and six in a row in five set matches.

•Although Djokovic has lost only seven matches from his last fifty, it is important to note that six of these have come in the last five months with the majority during November and December 2011. During these months Djokovic has lost to Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Janko Tipsarevic and David Ferrer.

•Interestingly, today's quarter-final match with Djokovic will be only the second time Ferrer has been priced at +6.0 and above in a Grand Slam event. The Spanish grinder's SP when he defeated fellow countryman Rafael Nadal at the quarter final stage 6-4 6-2 6-3 of the 2011 Australian Open was [7.50]. His opening odds against Robin Soderling at Wimbledon 2010 was 6.52. However, even though Ferrer managed to lose in an epic five set battle, his price would have dropped from that starting price quite considerably.

Four Reasons to Back Ekaterina Makarova @ [4.30] to defeat Maria Sharapova

•Fellow Russians Makarova and Sharapova face each other for the third time in their contrasting careers with Maria leading the head-to-head series 2-0; Makarova did however manage to take a set off Sharapova in May of last year on the clay courts of Madrid and will be buoyed by her sensational form at this year's Australian Open.

•Who'd have thought Ekaterina Makarova would be facing Maria Sharapova for a place in the semi-finals when the draw for the 2012 Aus Open was made over a week ago? Having dropped just the one set to Tamarine Tanasugarn in the first round, the 23 year-old has gone on to defeat three seeded players in a row and all three in straight sets......She dispatched of one of the pre-tournament favourites, Kaia Kanepi 6-2 7-5, seventh seed Vera Zvonareva 7-6 6-1, and the biggest upset of her career, Serena Williams 6-2 6-3. These four wins has meant that Makarova's earnings ROI (return on investment) is at an incredible 180% from her last ten matches. In total disparity, Sharapova has a ROI of -16.3% from her last ten.

•As always, Sharapova has a pretty high rate of double faults so far at this event (16) and is stark contrast, Makarova has won far more second serve points than her opponent and moreover, holds superior stats on her second serve return winning (79). Only Kim Clijsters and Victoria Azarenka are ahead in the leaders' table for this stat. If the weather forecasts wind, make sure you double your stake on Makarova because Sharapova struggles with her high ball toss and massive back swing on her ground strokes. She hates blustery weather..

•Make sure you back Makarova pre-match as a good start may see her price drop heavily, especially if conditions are tough.

If you haven't bet on the Open - or any event in Australia and New Zealand - before, there are a few things you need to know. For example, you have to move funds into your 'Australian Wallet' before placing a bet. We've put together a handy guide to how it all works, including short video clips.

World number one Novak Djokovic will face the biggest test of this tournament so far when he goes up against the tireless David Ferrer and this could be a long one. Elsewhere, Maria Sharapova should find it a lot easier...

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Opta Stats: Davies to cause Tottenham problems as always

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bolton's captain hasn't been at his best during his side's nightmare start

"Kevin Davies has scored six goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions."

Kevin Davies, Demba Ba and Chris Brunt are a few of the players that the Opta statistics indicate could be among the goals this weekend...

Newcastle v Chelsea (Saturday, 12:45, Sky Sports 1)
Only Robin van Persie (31) and Wayne Rooney (19) have netted more league goals in 2011 than Demba Ba (16)
After a slow start that many link to his period of fasting for Ramadan, Ba has been prolific, and took his tally to nine goals in ten Premier League starts for Newcastle with a cool penalty at Old Trafford last week. Having struck against Tottenham too, he's clearly relishes the big occasions, and should prove that again.
Recommended Bet: Ba to score @ [3.5]

Blackburn v Swansea (Saturday, 15:00)
Michel Vorm has kept the most clean sheets in the PL this season (six)
This is different trend to the ones usually flagged up in this column, using an Opta statistic to talk up a goalkeeper rather than a scorer. The Dutch international has been superb since his move to south Wales and though the majority of his clean sheets have come there, expect a seventh away to a Blackburn side who have fired blanks in three of their six home games.
Recommended Bet: Swansea to keep a clean sheet @ [4.5]

QPR v West Brom (Saturday, 15:00)
Chris Brunt has scored in his last three games against QPR at Loftus Road (two for WBA, one for Sheffield Wednesday)
Brunt hasn't contributed as many goals as he did at the beginning of his West Brom stint but his set-piece ability ensures that he remains a threat. The Northern Irishman has netted twice in the current campaign and a trip to one of his favourite grounds gives him a good chance of delivering again.
Recommended Bet: Brunt to score @ [6.3]

Tottenham v Bolton (Saturday, 15:00)
Kevin Davies has scored six goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions
Bolton's unprolific captain - who has scored just twice this season - appears to find a whole new gear against certain London clubs and the above gem suggests that Spurs are one of his favourites. The Lilywhites have been great of late yet still frequently concede, keeping only one clean sheet in eight.
Recommended Bet: Davies to score @ [6.8]

Click here to access dozens more priceless Opta statistics

Michael Lintorn has completed his weekly forage through Opta's magnificent stats, using them to pick out some bets for this weekend's Premier League games......

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table....

The Opta statistics for Saturday's teatime encounter between Aston Villa and Manchester United suggest that the hosts will pose a threat despite their dismal record in this fixture......

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Cresswell Pride can cause an upset

Timeform Radio Tip / Harry Bowles / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will you follow Harry's Sunday selections?

"The one who appeals most in Stratford's 15:50 is Cresswell Pride."

It might be Irish Oaks day, but it's the jumps meetings at Stratford and Newton Abbot which provide the venue for this afternoon's selections, writes Harry Bowles.

The betting for Stratford's 19-furlong handicap hurdle at 15:50 suggests an open race, and that is essentially the case with a number holding a chance. The one who appeals most, however, is Cresswell Pride. He showed his first piece of form since joining Lucy Jones when fifth at Ffos Las last month and, down another 4lb, that run is expected to trigger another step in the right direction. He gets the benefit of being partnered by Denis O'Regan for the first time and should be suited by the step up in trip. At the prices, he's a considerably more attractive betting proposition than the likes of Bon Spiel, Casper's Shadown and Chapel House.

The finale at Newton Abbot is a two-mile handicap chase and sees Temple Place as warm favourite. He has refound his form this season, no question, but his vulnerabilities were exposed to some extent when confidently ridden round here last time. Benefit Game is a legitimate alternative, but so to is Manjam, and he's the one to be with at his current price. True, he's been through various yards in his time, but it was an encouraging start for Tim Vaughan on what was his chasing debut at Worcester last month and, with that first outing in 13 months under his belt, it would be no surprise to see him progress significantly.

Recommended Bets
Back Cresswell Pride @ [10.5] in the 15:50 @ Stratford
Back Manjam @ [3.9] in the 17:05 @ Newton Abbot

Download a Free Race Card every day in July at timeform.com. Click HERE to register & get your free card for Irish Oaks day at the Curragh this afternoon.

Terry Norman is excited about a Luca Cumani horse that will relish the rain this afternoon. Meanwhile, another selection has the chance to step up at Newbury....

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Rome Masters Betting Tips: Home favourite to cause an upset

Events / Sean Calvert / 11 May 2011 / 1 Comments

Filippo Volandri has a far better record in Rome than his ranking would suggest

"Today’s match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the
Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with
the home crowd right behind him."

We don't see too much of Filippo Volandri these days because most of his tennis is played on the Challenger circuit but Rome is his home tournament and he saves his best performances for here. Today he's up against Stan Wawrinka and has every chance...

It was a very profitable day at the Rome Masters on Tuesday as Sam Querrey got past Kevin Anderson, who retired in the second set after losing the first.

There are plenty of matches that I like the look of on Wednesday, with several attractive betting propositions catching my eye. The most likely of which to make us a profit being home favourite, Filippo Volandri, against Stan Wawrinka.

I'm a big fan of Stan, but he's been poor lately, with first match losses in his previous three tournaments prior to Rome.

The Swiss number two was also below par in his struggle of a win against another Italian, Fabio Fognini on Tuesday, where he had to come from a set down to force the victory.

Today's match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with the home crowd right behind him.

Volandri is more often seen on the Challenger circuit these days, but he loves it at the Foro Italico, where he's a former semi finalist and has beaten the likes of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, and Tomas Berdych.

Volandri also reached the last 16 in 2010, where he narrowly lost out to an inspired Ernests Gulbis, so he won't be fazed by taking on the "lesser Swiss" after beating Federer here in straights.

The 29-year-old from Livorno has been in good form lately too, with a final in the Napoli Challenger followed by a semi final in Belgrade and a thumping win over Thiemo de Bakker in the first round here.

All this represents better form than the awful defeats that Stan has had lately, including the [1.04] defeat to world number 109 Dustin Brown on the dirt in Munich, which preceded the first round loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Madrid last week.

So, for my money, the [1.57] on Wawrinka looks lay material and that's my best bet for Wednesday at the Rome Masters.

Recommended bet:

Lay Wawrinka at [1.57] versus Volandri

This match will lack the skills and subtleties of classic clay court tennis but let's not allow that to get in the way of making some money, says Sean Calvert....

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