Showing posts with label Favourite. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Favourite. Show all posts
Sunday, September 8, 2013
Sunday, March 18, 2012
F1 Odds: Button second favourite after Australia win
Formula One 
/ Joe Dyer / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jenson enjoys his W
"At [3.65] Button, backed at [13.0] to win the title, is now slightly shorter than McLaren rival Hamilton ([4.0]). Vettel retains favouritism at [3.05] but it's some way off his market low of [1.99]."
It was a great opening race for Jenson Button and the McLaren team with first and third places. The British team now occupy favouritism for the Constructors' Championship and look set to play a big role in the Drivers' competition...
Jenson Button is [3.65] second favourite for the F1 Drivers' Championship after winning the season opener in Melbourne.
Starting second on the grid, the British driver overtook team-mate Lewis Hamilton at the first corner and drove on to an untroubled victory. Hamilton finished third, the victim of unlucky timing when the safety car was deployed which allowed Sebastian Vettel to gain vital seconds and eventually force himself between the McLaren drivers on the podium.
At [3.65] Button, backed at [13.0] to win the title, is now slightly shorter than McLaren rival Hamilton ([4.0]). Vettel retains favouritism at [3.05] but it's some way off his market low of [1.99]. Button finished runner-up to Vettel in last year's Championship.
McLaren's strong showing in Melbourne has also seen them assume favouritism in the Constructors' Championship, where they can be backed at [1.76]. Red Bull, for whom Mark Webber was fourth are available to back at [2.56].
The first grand prix of the season takes place in Melbourne and McLaren have set down a marker for the campaign by taking the front two places on the grid. James Frankland can't see anyone other than Lewis or Jenson...
James Frankland continues his guide to making money on Formula One as he discusses technological innovation as well as the importance of weather and qualifying positions......
With the season set to get under way in Australia this Sunday, James Frankland explains how to make money betting on Formula One......
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Kentucky Derby: Union Rags now clear favourite for May classic
News / Timeform / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Union Rags during a workout
"Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124..."
Union Rags has shortened markedly in the ante-post betting for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5, following his authoritative success in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Sunday.
The Michael Matz-trained colt is [4.1] from around [10.0] on Betfair for the Kentucky Derby, with a double-figure or bigger price on offer about all other named contenders.
Union Rags, winner of four of his five races, accounted for News Pending comfortably by four lengths, with the previously unbeaten Discreet Dancer fading into third. The much-touted Algorithms was a late scratch due to a setback.
Timeform has increased Union Rags' rating from 123 to 124, which puts him 6 lb and more ahead of his likely rivals and just 2 lb behind the average rating achieved by Kentucky Derby winners in the last five years.
Matz, who won the big one in 2006 with Barbaro, indicated that he was likely to aim Union Rags at the $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby, over 9 furlongs and back at Gulfstream, on March 31.
In the meantime, look out for Timeform's new "Road To The Kentucky Derby" feature, with rolling biographies of the leading contenders, starting on these pages later this week.
With opposition to reigning champion Quevega thin on the ground, Emma Lavelle is keen to run Kentford Grey Lady in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham......
Timeform review a weekend featuring a win for Nacarat in the Racing Plus Chase at Kempton alongside a whole host of Cheltenham pointers......
Kauto Star is reported to be in tremendous shape ahead of his bid for a third Cheltenham Gold Cup success on Friday February 16....
Monday, May 30, 2011
Coronation Cup Betting: Favourite St Nicholas Abbey too short?
Ante-Post Betting / Mark Powell-Bevan / 30 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Middleton winner Midday should arguably be favourite for the Coronation Cup
"the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom..."
The Oaks isn't the only Group 1 at Epsom on Friday, as there's also the Coronation Cup, in which Aidan O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey is currently a short-priced favourite. But does he deserve to be?...
No. There's no point beating around the bush. Yes, St Nicholas Abbey is a high-class colt who still has potential, having run out an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy in 2009 and got his career back on track when bolting up in the Ormonde at Chester in May. But there are still niggling doubts about him, including whether he can take a sustained period of racing, remembering that he raced only twice in between (missed the 2010 Derby, for which he was ante-post favourite, through injury) those two successes, and exactly what that Chester form is worth, the second and third, Allied Powers and Harris Tweed, arguably not seen at their best for different reasons.
At the time of writing, St Nicholas Abbey is [2.06] to win the Coronation Cup at Epsom, but that price is surely too short bearing in mind the opposition he will face compared to at Chester. Granted, there isn't much strength in depth on Friday (O'Brien says SNA will be his only runner and the James Given-trained pair Dandino and Indian Days have plenty to find), but in Henry Cecil's Midday, St Nicholas Abbey is going to face by far his most formidable challenger so far.
Midday has been performing consistently at the top level for a long time now, having finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks in 2009, going on to win two Nassaus, a Yorkshire Oaks, a Vermeille, a Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (unlucky loser last year) and, most recently, the Middleton at York, in which she ran out a comfortable two-length winner over Sajjhaa.
That York form, along with a number of other efforts that Midday has produced looks solid, something which can't necessarily be said of St Nicholas Abbey's nine-length demolition job around a track like Chester, which makes it hard to fathom why Midday is currently trading at [2.6], especially as she will be in receipt of the fillies allowance.
There's surely a bit of the 'O'Brien Factor' at play with St Nicholas Abbey's price, in a race that the Ballydoyle trainer has won four times in the last six years (with Yeats, Scorpion, Soldier of Fortune and Fame And Glory), which is justified to an extent, but the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom, making her a strong selection.
Don't be surprised if the odds are much tighter on Friday, perhaps even with Midday going off favourite?!
Recommendation
Back Midday @ [2.6] for the Coronation Cup at Epsom on Friday
It may not attract the same publicity as the Derby, but this year's Investec Oaks forms an absorbing puzzle with three of the biggest stables in Europe at its heart. Godolphin, Coolmore and Sir Michael Stoute dominate the market and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is wondering whether he has missed the boat with his main fancy....
The markets suggest we are poised for a historic royal Derby winner when the exciting Carlton House heads to Epsom. But is it really that straightforward? Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham isn't convinced and sees several alternatives to Sir Michael Stoute's colt....
Our blogger sides against The Queen in the big one, assuming we all survive long enough to see the race!...
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Rome Masters Betting Tips: Home favourite to cause an upset
Events / Sean Calvert / 11 May 2011 / 1 Comments 
Filippo Volandri has a far better record in Rome than his ranking would suggest
"Today’s match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the
Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with
the home crowd right behind him."
We don't see too much of Filippo Volandri these days because most of his tennis is played on the Challenger circuit but Rome is his home tournament and he saves his best performances for here. Today he's up against Stan Wawrinka and has every chance...
It was a very profitable day at the Rome Masters on Tuesday as Sam Querrey got past Kevin Anderson, who retired in the second set after losing the first.
There are plenty of matches that I like the look of on Wednesday, with several attractive betting propositions catching my eye. The most likely of which to make us a profit being home favourite, Filippo Volandri, against Stan Wawrinka.
I'm a big fan of Stan, but he's been poor lately, with first match losses in his previous three tournaments prior to Rome.
The Swiss number two was also below par in his struggle of a win against another Italian, Fabio Fognini on Tuesday, where he had to come from a set down to force the victory.
Today's match sees Stan take on a man who reserves his best for the Eternal City and who should make it tough for the world number 14 with the home crowd right behind him.
Volandri is more often seen on the Challenger circuit these days, but he loves it at the Foro Italico, where he's a former semi finalist and has beaten the likes of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, and Tomas Berdych.
Volandri also reached the last 16 in 2010, where he narrowly lost out to an inspired Ernests Gulbis, so he won't be fazed by taking on the "lesser Swiss" after beating Federer here in straights.
The 29-year-old from Livorno has been in good form lately too, with a final in the Napoli Challenger followed by a semi final in Belgrade and a thumping win over Thiemo de Bakker in the first round here.
All this represents better form than the awful defeats that Stan has had lately, including the [1.04] defeat to world number 109 Dustin Brown on the dirt in Munich, which preceded the first round loss to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in Madrid last week.
So, for my money, the [1.57] on Wawrinka looks lay material and that's my best bet for Wednesday at the Rome Masters.
Recommended bet:
Lay Wawrinka at [1.57] versus Volandri
This match will lack the skills and subtleties of classic clay court tennis but let's not allow that to get in the way of making some money, says Sean Calvert....
The slow courts of Rome should suit Nadal, who can overcome the disappointment of last week's defeat to Novak Djokovic in Madrid, says Sean Calvert...
Alexandr Dolgopolov has lost his way after a fantastic early season run but Sean Calvert is backing him to come good today...
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Derby Betting: Frankel unlikely, but Cecil still has favourite in World Domination
Events / Timeform / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Newbury winner World Domination is favourite for the Derby
"Frankel is, however, an intended runner in the St James’s Palace."
The Henry Cecil-trained World Domination has emerged as the new favourite for the Derby on June 4 after it was announced that the 2000 Guineas winner Frankel would not run in the Epsom Classic...
The 2000 Guineas winner, Frankel, rated 142 by Timeform after his blistering Newmarket success, is out to [27.0] in Betfair's Epsom Derby market, while his stable-companion World Domination (who reportedly suffered a very minor setback) heads the betting at [5.8].
There are severe doubts about Frankel's stamina for a mile and a half on the back of his Newmarket win, prompting a rethink, but World Domination, a most impressive winner of an eleven furlong Newbury maiden on his sole start last month, for which he earned a Timeform rating of 100P, seems sure to relish the longer trip, with both his pedigree and manner of victory pointing in that direction.
Frankel is, however, an intended runner in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot next month, and currently trades as short as [1.3].
Read the thoughts of Michael Bell on the chances of his horses at Newmarket, Goodwood, Thirsk and Sha Tin....
In his first-ever column on betting.betfair Brian talks us through the merits of his weekend runners at Newmarket and Salisbury....
Timeform go through the runners for the first classic of the season......
Monday, March 28, 2011
US Master 2011: Should Tiger Woods be favourite?
US Masters / Mike Norman / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments 
Tiger Woods is the favourite to win this year’s US Masters and claim his fifth green jacket
"In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger’s stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour – that’s almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning form here."
Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters.
There aren't many people who have lived in the world who are instantly recognisable by name to almost every adult human being. Elvis Presley and Michael Jackson were two such people, and perhaps also are Princess Diana and Marilyn Monroe. And from the sporting world we can add the likes of Pele and Muhammad Ali to that list.
And of course, who hasn't heard of Tiger Woods?
Even my girlfriend has heard of Tiger, and she is someone who knows so little about what's going on in the world that she still thinks a Chilean miner is a kid that hasn't wrapped up properly!
Now, unless you were on a different planet a year ago you'll know that Mr Woods went through a pretty traumatic time off the golf course. But what about on the golf course? If you're not an avid follower of golf, but like so many people you love having a punt on the US Masters (it's how I got into golf betting), then Tiger will be the first name that springs to mind. You'll notice that he is still ranked amongst the world's top-five players, you'll remember that he has a fantastic record round Augusta National, and you'll see that he is the current [10.0] favourite to don his fifth green jacket next Sunday evening.
But the picture I've just painted above is very murky; a much clearer picture is painted below.
The Official Golf World Rankings are calculated on a player's previous two years of performances, so in Tiger's case, his five PGA Tour wins (and three second place finishes) between June 2009 and news breaking about his personal life are calculated in the rankings you see today.
Since Tiger returned to golfing action this time last year he has very rarely hit the heights he did pre-scandal. In fact, based on his performances in 2010 alone Tiger ranked number 41 in the world for that calendar year. And it doesn't get any better this year. So far in 2011, more than 75 players have accumulated more ranking points than Tiger. Effectively then, the great man - who is currently ranked number five in the world remember - is languishing somewhere outside the world's top 50 if you compile a list based on everyone's performances from January 2010 onwards.
So what about course form? Some will argue - me included - that course form is vital in golf betting. But the key is that it is only vital when a golfer is playing to a similar standard as at the time when a certain course gave him an edge. Tiger is not playing to the standard he was 18 months ago - nowhere near it in fact - so therefore his previous record at the Masters is easily overlooked. In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger's stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour - that's almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning scores in Georgia.
And remember, Tiger also has an incredible record at Firestone Country Club (seven wins) and at Bay Hill (six wins), but in his current guise he finished 78th and 24th respectively at those venues.
Tiger's personal problems have undoubtedly contributed to his regression, and whether or not he brought those problems on himself, I will never criticise him for that. What many will criticise him for however is his decision to change his golf swing. True, it's not the finished article yet but Tiger is driving the ball appallingly at times. He ranks just 187th in Driving Accuracy, one of the key stats you look at when selecting a likely US Masters winner.
And of the other key stats required next week Tiger ranks just 105th in Putting - for so many years the strongest part of his game - and 135th in Sand Saves.
Put simply, Tiger is normal again. He is about the 50th best player in the world on form shown since early last year; he is averaging close to 12 shots per tournament worse than his previous winning US Masters scores; he has recently played poorly at venues where he was previously brilliant; he hasn't won in 20 competitive tournaments; and his 2011 PGA Tour stats don't inspire any confidence whatsoever.
Yet Tiger Woods is the [10.0] favourite to win one of the most hotly-contested golf tournaments of the season. I'm relying on you good people to please tell me why.
Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......
An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......
Dan Fitch takes a look at the golfers who made winning majors into a habit....
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Tatispout can upset short price favourite
Timeform Radio Tip / Jeremy Grayson / 14 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Both today's selections are in action at Stratford
"Taking on a likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense... "
On the eve of Cheltenham, Jeremy Grayson selects a promising pair of runners that could get a big week off to a flyer...
The 2m7f handicap chase at Stratford (15:40) contains one animal who looks exceptionally well treated on his best form, but who also enters the race in good enough heart to think he can exploit that historically very low mark.
Daldini [4.0] can run off a 15lb lower rating than when recording a fifth chasing victory at Southwell over a year ago, and his most recent effort at Newcastle is not hard to mark up, as he was goaded into doing too much by rivals early on yet still had enough left once headed to box on for a creditable fourth place. Nothing is likely to take him on the same way here.
Importantly around this trappy venue, which claims its share of fallers, the Josr Algarhoud gelding remains a very safe conveyance in the main, with just two unseats and no falls in 48 runs over jumps (37 chases) all told. At least half of today's rivals, meanwhile, possess jumping issues of varying degrees of seriousness.
In addition, Sue Smith is already enjoying a splendid March, with five winners in the last 13 days having included three triumphs (one at 80-1) this last weekend alone.
Charlie Longsdon is another handler to have had a grand time of it just lately, with 44 jumps runners since the start of February garnering 12 winners (including one yesterday).
His filly Tatispout [5.7] gets into Stratford's feature handicap hurdle (16:10) off a flyweight. Confidence is high that she can defy a mark of 105 at the first time of asking, having shown clear improvement over each of three novice runs.
Already the winner of a 1m2f junior bumper on rattling fast ground in France last May, any further drying out of the surface here is unlikely to inconvenience her, and an 8lb age allowance rates another obvious plus.
With the McCoy-ridden Henderson handicap debutant Remember Now still having questions to answer regarding both willingness to settle in races and effectiveness on sounder surfaces, taking on that likely short-priced favourite with Tatispout makes a lot of sense.
Recommended bets:
Back Daldini @ [4.0] in the 15:40 @ Stratford
Back Tatispout @[5.7] on 16:10 @ Stratford
Rory Delargy will be in Timeform Radio's Cheltenham studio to go through today's racing at with Lorna Bradburne and he's found a monster bet at Market Rasen...
Jeremy Grayson picks out a pair to follow on the all-weather at Wolverhampton...
Graham Cunningham selects a pair of lively Friday afternoon runners......
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Champions League Betting: Favourite backers beware
Champions League / Matthew Walton / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Edardo's Shaktar are the side most capable of causing an upset of the four outsiders in action this week
"Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches."
AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton.
This year's Champions League, for the most part, has been devoid of any great drama ... and now, as the competition returns after its traditional Winter break, it remains to be seen whether a largely predictable tournament thus far for favourite backers will finally provide a few shocks and surprises.
But thankfully, whilst the usual suspects all made it safely through the preliminary groups, their passage wasn't without incident. Favourites like Arsenal didn't win Group H, defending champions Inter Milan failed to top Group A, Schalke pipped Lyon in Group B ... and so on.
Each an example of how this competition can see 'minor tremors' sent through the formbook ... so it'll be interesting to see if there are any greater seismic disturbances lined up for the next round of this year's tournament.
This week sees Barcelona ([1.27]), Valencia ([1.76]), AC Milan ([1.80]) and Roma ([1.85]) as the four jollies fully expected 'to qualify' for the QF's at the expense of Arsenal ([4.6]), Schalke ([2.24]), Spurs ([2.24]) and Shakhtar ([2.16]) respectively.
But cast your mind back to last year's competition. Underdogs like CSKA Moscow (Seville), Lyon (Real Madrid) and Inter Milan (Chelsea) all knocked out the favourites 'to qualify' at this very stage of the tournament. And it will surely happen again this year to one, or more, of the teams fancied to make it through to the QF's ... but which ones?
It probably won't be Barcelona. They face Arsenal in this round, after the Gunners could only finish second in their group. A very short price 'to qualify' on the exchange rates the Catalans as worthy favourites to progress ... and so does the formbook!
In last year's competition, at the QF stage, it was 2-2 at the Emirates before a Lionel Messi masterclass saw the Spanish champions trounce the English side 4-1 at the Camp Nou. Before that it was the 2005/06 final in Paris, Barca winning 2-1. Before that it was the group stages in 1999/2000 when Arsenal drew 1-1 in Spain ... only to lose 2-4 at their then home, Wembley.
All that you could say about Arsenal is were they to beat Barcelona (as, of course, Inter Milan did last year) then surely their claims to the outright title are vastly improved. The value, therefore, for die-hard backers of Arsene Wenger's team might be for the outright win [24.0] than simply this tie [4.6].
However, whilst it's hard to recommend Arsenal, their North London rivals Spurs may have stronger claims. Top scorers in the group stage (18) - albeit top conceders as well - they bested AC's city rivals for top spot in Group A, beating Inter 6-5 on aggregate. By comparison, AC scored the fewest goals (7) and collected the lowest number of points (8) of all the sides in the R16. Statistics which suggest underdogs Spurs have more than half a chance of upsetting the tie's favourites, AC.
And you wouldn't bet your life savings either on favourites Valencia, overcoming Schalke, or Roma, defeating Shakhtar Donetsk.
Valencia ran 'up to form' in chasing home Manchester United in Group C but Schalke were just as impressive in coming out on top of Lyon and Benfica in Group B. The Germans made the QF's in 2007/08 (losing 0-2 to Barca over two legs) but possibly the deciding factor for traders in making Schalke the outsiders is they played Valencia that season home and away in the group stage, drawing 0-0 in Spain but losing the return in Germany 0-1.
Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches. Led by Mircea Lucescu (ex Pisa, Brescia, Reggiana and Inter Milan coach) they can test a Roma side who qualified with modest results (P6 W3 D1 L2), conceded 11 times in those six games and are only mid-table in Serie A this season.
As we've seen in previous competitions, either Arsenal, Spurs, Schalke or Shakhtar (or one of next week's underdogs) can, and probably will, cause an upset ... and we should take advantage.
Recommended Bets
Arsenal to win the Champions League [24.0] - far better value than [4.6] to beat Barcelona
Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify [2.16]
Valencia are favourites to progress and unsurprisingly odds-on to win the first leg but the price on offer is a good one, all things considered, says James Eastham....
AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton....
The Champions League and Europa League draws have thrown up plenty of exciting betting opportunities, says Matthew Walton....
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Australian Open Tips: Favourite Djokovic to break British hearts
Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Djokovic and Murray are well matched - but the Serbian may have the edge
"The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets."
The stats suggest a close fought Australian Open Final on Sunday morning but a tough semi-final may have just taken the edge off of Murray, says Ben Caudell
Andy Murray (GBR) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
The paths of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic converge once more having both successfully won through their semi-final matches to set-up an epic title showdown in Melbourne.
Both men will be familiar with one another's games having competed at junior level from the age of 12, and on to the professional circuit where they have battled it out on seven occasions.
The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets. Sunday morning's final is the pair's first best of five-set match played between the two 23-year-olds and the third final in a row.
Murray is clearly the best tactician on tour and if he can find the balance between his notorious defensive play and his attacking game that has so far proved to be extremely effective against his opponents in the previous rounds he will cause Djokovic difficulties.
The Brit star managed to change tactics with extreme precision when a set down against his dogged semi-final opponent, David Ferrer. Murray started to hit with considerably more depth and power, picking away at Ferrer's defensive wall, applying enough pressure for Ferrer to increase his unforced error count, eventually winning in four tough sets. If he is to succeed tomorrow he will have to apply similar methods.
Although the Serbian will be slightly worried by the fact that he has lost to Murray three times in a row, he will be more than delighted with his near perfect performance against the reigning champion Roger Federer in his semi-final match. It is very difficult to find fault with Djokovic's game at the moment and he is still on a massive high after winning the Davis Cup at the end of 2010 with Serbia.
Djokovic has won 11 matches in a row, his last nine in Australia, and has been victorious in his last nine five-set matches. He also holds better stats on hard courts than Murray. Djokovic will have the advantage of having won a Grand Slam title here back in 2008 and is the deserved favourite in the match odds @ [1.74] to succeed.
Moreover, the Serbian has had an extra day of rest, while Murray looked exhausted and maybe slightly injured after his semi-final. I have to side with Djokovic to win here for the second time in his career, unfortunately for Murray and Britain, the wait continues.
Recommended Bets:
Back Novak Djokovic @ [1.74] to win match
Back Djokovic 3-1 @ [4.8]
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