World Athletics Championships Day Seven: Beware or Believe?

Athletics / Jack Houghton / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

You have to hand it to Bolt, but Alonso Edward (left) can make the podium again

"Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt’s disqualification in the 100m, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m."

Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which skinny ones to believe in, and which to beware of.

Men's 200m - Usain Bolt - BELIEVE
Despite having put Bolt up as a Beware on day one of these championships, I took no pleasure from seeing his disqualification from the final, especially as my own pick, [36.0] shot Nesta Carter, was injured in the same race and finished last. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Bolt's disqualification in the 100m though, he should be able to gain recompense in the 200m. As in the 100m, he has, by his own standards, been lacklustre in the 200m this season, but has still recorded the fastest time of the year so far. This, coupled with the lack of credible opposition - only one other athlete has run sub-20 seconds this year - means Bolt should find his task much easier over the longer sprint distance. There is little value in his odds of [1.11] though. Better bets can be found in the Top 3 market, where rising star Nickel Ashmeade, and returning-from-injury Alonso Edward, can fill the podium with Bolt.

Women's Hammer - Betty Heidler - Beware
Purely on price, it's worth opposing the 2007 world champion Betty Heidler as she bids to regain her title. Although she has dominated competition this season, throwing the four best efforts of the year, including a world record 79.42, she remains vulnerable in major championships, where she has not always produced her best. A number of past champions (think Miankova, Moreno and Wlodarczyk) are coming back from breaks, and both Wenxiu and Lysenko are capable of pushing Heidler close on the day. Not an event to get heavily involved in, but Heidler is definitely worth opposing.

Recommendations:
2pts back Alonso Edwards at [2.50] in men's 200m.
1pt back Nickel Ashmeade at [3.50] in men's 200m.
2pts lay Betty Heidler at [1.36] in women's hammer.

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Athletics championships pose punters a problem. With a plethora of short-priced favourites, it's always hard to separate the genuine sporting titan from the overhyped chancer. During the nine days of World Championship action in Daegu, Jack Houghton tells us which...

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Champions League Betting: Favourite backers beware

Champions League / Matthew Walton / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edardo's Shaktar are the side most capable of causing an upset of the four outsiders in action this week

"Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches."

AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton.

This year's Champions League, for the most part, has been devoid of any great drama ... and now, as the competition returns after its traditional Winter break, it remains to be seen whether a largely predictable tournament thus far for favourite backers will finally provide a few shocks and surprises.

But thankfully, whilst the usual suspects all made it safely through the preliminary groups, their passage wasn't without incident. Favourites like Arsenal didn't win Group H, defending champions Inter Milan failed to top Group A, Schalke pipped Lyon in Group B ... and so on.

Each an example of how this competition can see 'minor tremors' sent through the formbook ... so it'll be interesting to see if there are any greater seismic disturbances lined up for the next round of this year's tournament.

This week sees Barcelona ([1.27]), Valencia ([1.76]), AC Milan ([1.80]) and Roma ([1.85]) as the four jollies fully expected 'to qualify' for the QF's at the expense of Arsenal ([4.6]), Schalke ([2.24]), Spurs ([2.24]) and Shakhtar ([2.16]) respectively.

But cast your mind back to last year's competition. Underdogs like CSKA Moscow (Seville), Lyon (Real Madrid) and Inter Milan (Chelsea) all knocked out the favourites 'to qualify' at this very stage of the tournament. And it will surely happen again this year to one, or more, of the teams fancied to make it through to the QF's ... but which ones?

It probably won't be Barcelona. They face Arsenal in this round, after the Gunners could only finish second in their group. A very short price 'to qualify' on the exchange rates the Catalans as worthy favourites to progress ... and so does the formbook!

In last year's competition, at the QF stage, it was 2-2 at the Emirates before a Lionel Messi masterclass saw the Spanish champions trounce the English side 4-1 at the Camp Nou. Before that it was the 2005/06 final in Paris, Barca winning 2-1. Before that it was the group stages in 1999/2000 when Arsenal drew 1-1 in Spain ... only to lose 2-4 at their then home, Wembley.

All that you could say about Arsenal is were they to beat Barcelona (as, of course, Inter Milan did last year) then surely their claims to the outright title are vastly improved. The value, therefore, for die-hard backers of Arsene Wenger's team might be for the outright win [24.0] than simply this tie [4.6].

However, whilst it's hard to recommend Arsenal, their North London rivals Spurs may have stronger claims. Top scorers in the group stage (18) - albeit top conceders as well - they bested AC's city rivals for top spot in Group A, beating Inter 6-5 on aggregate. By comparison, AC scored the fewest goals (7) and collected the lowest number of points (8) of all the sides in the R16. Statistics which suggest underdogs Spurs have more than half a chance of upsetting the tie's favourites, AC.

And you wouldn't bet your life savings either on favourites Valencia, overcoming Schalke, or Roma, defeating Shakhtar Donetsk.

Valencia ran 'up to form' in chasing home Manchester United in Group C but Schalke were just as impressive in coming out on top of Lyon and Benfica in Group B. The Germans made the QF's in 2007/08 (losing 0-2 to Barca over two legs) but possibly the deciding factor for traders in making Schalke the outsiders is they played Valencia that season home and away in the group stage, drawing 0-0 in Spain but losing the return in Germany 0-1.

Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches. Led by Mircea Lucescu (ex Pisa, Brescia, Reggiana and Inter Milan coach) they can test a Roma side who qualified with modest results (P6 W3 D1 L2), conceded 11 times in those six games and are only mid-table in Serie A this season.

As we've seen in previous competitions, either Arsenal, Spurs, Schalke or Shakhtar (or one of next week's underdogs) can, and probably will, cause an upset ... and we should take advantage.

Recommended Bets

Arsenal to win the Champions League [24.0] - far better value than [4.6] to beat Barcelona

Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify [2.16]

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