Champions League 
/ Matthew Walton / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Edardo's Shaktar are the side most capable of causing an upset of the four outsiders in action this week
"Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches."
AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton.
This year's Champions League, for the most part, has been devoid of any great drama ... and now, as the competition returns after its traditional Winter break, it remains to be seen whether a largely predictable tournament thus far for favourite backers will finally provide a few shocks and surprises.
But thankfully, whilst the usual suspects all made it safely through the preliminary groups, their passage wasn't without incident. Favourites like Arsenal didn't win Group H, defending champions Inter Milan failed to top Group A, Schalke pipped Lyon in Group B ... and so on.
Each an example of how this competition can see 'minor tremors' sent through the formbook ... so it'll be interesting to see if there are any greater seismic disturbances lined up for the next round of this year's tournament.
This week sees Barcelona ([1.27]), Valencia ([1.76]), AC Milan ([1.80]) and Roma ([1.85]) as the four jollies fully expected 'to qualify' for the QF's at the expense of Arsenal ([4.6]), Schalke ([2.24]), Spurs ([2.24]) and Shakhtar ([2.16]) respectively.
But cast your mind back to last year's competition. Underdogs like CSKA Moscow (Seville), Lyon (Real Madrid) and Inter Milan (Chelsea) all knocked out the favourites 'to qualify' at this very stage of the tournament. And it will surely happen again this year to one, or more, of the teams fancied to make it through to the QF's ... but which ones?
It probably won't be Barcelona. They face Arsenal in this round, after the Gunners could only finish second in their group. A very short price 'to qualify' on the exchange rates the Catalans as worthy favourites to progress ... and so does the formbook!
In last year's competition, at the QF stage, it was 2-2 at the Emirates before a Lionel Messi masterclass saw the Spanish champions trounce the English side 4-1 at the Camp Nou. Before that it was the 2005/06 final in Paris, Barca winning 2-1. Before that it was the group stages in 1999/2000 when Arsenal drew 1-1 in Spain ... only to lose 2-4 at their then home, Wembley.
All that you could say about Arsenal is were they to beat Barcelona (as, of course, Inter Milan did last year) then surely their claims to the outright title are vastly improved. The value, therefore, for die-hard backers of Arsene Wenger's team might be for the outright win [24.0] than simply this tie [4.6].
However, whilst it's hard to recommend Arsenal, their North London rivals Spurs may have stronger claims. Top scorers in the group stage (18) - albeit top conceders as well - they bested AC's city rivals for top spot in Group A, beating Inter 6-5 on aggregate. By comparison, AC scored the fewest goals (7) and collected the lowest number of points (8) of all the sides in the R16. Statistics which suggest underdogs Spurs have more than half a chance of upsetting the tie's favourites, AC.
And you wouldn't bet your life savings either on favourites Valencia, overcoming Schalke, or Roma, defeating Shakhtar Donetsk.
Valencia ran 'up to form' in chasing home Manchester United in Group C but Schalke were just as impressive in coming out on top of Lyon and Benfica in Group B. The Germans made the QF's in 2007/08 (losing 0-2 to Barca over two legs) but possibly the deciding factor for traders in making Schalke the outsiders is they played Valencia that season home and away in the group stage, drawing 0-0 in Spain but losing the return in Germany 0-1.
Shakhtar probably offer better claims. Their group record (P6 W5 L1) was good and despite a 5-1 drubbing at the Emirates, the Ukrainian side conceded just one goal in their five other group matches. Led by Mircea Lucescu (ex Pisa, Brescia, Reggiana and Inter Milan coach) they can test a Roma side who qualified with modest results (P6 W3 D1 L2), conceded 11 times in those six games and are only mid-table in Serie A this season.
As we've seen in previous competitions, either Arsenal, Spurs, Schalke or Shakhtar (or one of next week's underdogs) can, and probably will, cause an upset ... and we should take advantage.
Recommended Bets
Arsenal to win the Champions League [24.0] - far better value than [4.6] to beat Barcelona
Shakhtar Donetsk to qualify [2.16]
Valencia are favourites to progress and unsurprisingly odds-on to win the first leg but the price on offer is a good one, all things considered, says James Eastham....
AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton....
The Champions League and Europa League draws have thrown up plenty of exciting betting opportunities, says Matthew Walton....
No comments:
Post a Comment