Europa League Betting: Back Hearts to trouble depleted Liverpool

Hearts have scored five goals in three games, and Liverpool have created chances in all of their games so far, so I'm surprised Over 2.5 Goals is priced up at a tasty 2.1211/10.

Liverpool are aiming to recover from a dreadful start to the Premier League season, but Kevin Hatchard suspects in-form Hearts may give Brendan Rodgers' men another rough ride.

Hearts vs Liverpool, Europa League playoff round first leg, Thu 19:45 BST, Live on ITV 4

Match Odds: Hearts 7.06/1, Liverpool 1.594/7, the draw 3.953/1

Liverpool suffered a disastrous start to their Premier League campaign on Saturday, as they lost 3-0 at West Brom. The result should be given some context - Liverpool in general and Luis Suarez in particular wasted a host of chances before Zoltan Gera's stunning opener, and then Reds defender Daniel Agger was harshly sent off. That said, such a heavy reverse will be a psychological body-blow.

Liverpool are clearly taking time to adapt to new boss Brendan Rodgers' methods, with defenders like Martin Skrtel looking particularly uncomfortable with the new regime. Rodgers likes his teams to build patiently from the back, and this will inevitably cause early-season apprehension. In the previous round of the Europa League, Liverpool were extremely fortunate to keep a clean sheet in a 1-0 first-leg win at Belarussian side Gomel, although their 3-0 win at Anfield in the second leg was more convincing.

Rodgers has elected to leave Suarez and Skrtel at home, with skipper Steven Gerrard and full-back Glen Johnson also omitted. Joe Cole and Jose Enrique are injured, while new signing Oussama Assaidi is ineligible.

That list of absentees will give encouragement to a Hearts side that is yet to taste defeat under new boss John McGlynn. The Jambos have won one and drawn two of their SPL matches so far, and their performances at Tynecastle have been encouraging. A solid 2-0 win against St Johnstone was followed by a frustrating 2-2 draw against Inverness Caledonian Thistle. Hearts were 2-0 up but let their lead slip, conceding a last-gasp equaliser.

Given Liverpool's weakened squad and their defensive shakiness, I think they are a bit too short at 1.594/7. Hearts have started the season confidently, and may be worth backing on the Asian Handicap with a one-goal start at 1.9520/21. Hearts have scored five goals in three games, but their collapse against Inverness showed some defensive frailty. Liverpool have created chances in all of their games so far, and so I'm surprised Over 2.5 Goals is priced up at a tasty 2.1211/10.

Recommended Bet: Back Hearts +1.0 goals on the Asian Handicap at 1.9520/21

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1211/10

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Super Bowl Betting: New York can break Patriots hearts again

NFL / Andy Richmond / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brady v Manning - we can't wait!

"Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don’t get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day."

Andy Richmond is relishing the elite quarter-back duel that Sunday night's Super Bowl will deliver. But, as our man explains, there's far more to New England Patriots v New York Giants than that...

Superbowl XLVI
New England Patriots v New York Giants
Sunday February 5
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:30 - KO 23:30

Match odds: New England [1.74] New York Giants [2.34]

"The four biggest holiday celebrations in the United States are Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and the Super Bowl." - The Washington Post.

Much of the talk and analysis around Super Bowl XLVI has focused on the last time these two met four years ago in Super Bowl XLII. But, as I wrote in an earlier column this week, the game that provides a better template for this contest is the match-up from week nine.

Plenty of theories abound about how the Patriots and Giants can win the game. We know that the Giants need to exert pressure on Tom Brady, how dangerous the Patriots two tight-ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are, that we have two of the best slot receivers in the game today in Victor Cruz and Wes Welker taking part, and that the Patriots secondary has been both porous and poor all year. But what about the other elements which could prove game changing?

Both sides are known as primarily passing teams, but I think that both the Patriots and the Giants will attempt to run the ball a little more than they have this season. The Patriots take to the air for 59.5 percent of their offensive plays, but they might try a few more running plays to test the Giants' run-stopping ability. The Giants give up 121.6 rushing yards per game and allow 4.5 yards per run. From the no-huddle, Brady might try more shotgun handoffs to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the other running backs. If it works, the Pats might have a more balanced offense than they've shown this season. The Giants run game had a horrible season but both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have got better and better in the post season. There's excitement about the triumvirate of New York wide receivers but the Giants run game must not be underestimated. It will prove vital in a foil to the passing game.

Tom Brady tossed two interceptions in that week nine loss to the Giants and New York scored 10 points off those turnovers. Since then Brady has taken more care of the football and only been picked off twice. Here he's bound to face the Giants "big nickel" defence again. With the Giants thin at linebacker they often replace a linebacker with a third safety in Deon Grant; that scheme is called a "big nickel" and they use it because it matches up well with all the Patriots two tight-end sets and shutting them down would give the Giants a significant advantage.

I've already mentioned the Giants pass-rush but how are the Patriots going to counteract the awesome foursome? For Bill O'Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator, this is his biggest concern as the Giants had 34 sacks using four or fewer defenders. I suspect that O'Brien will attempt to slow down the pass rush by throwing lots of screens and tire the Giants defence out by keeping them on the field with plenty of no-huddle offence, a tactic that Brady is particularly adept at running. This would also prove a viable tactic to keep the more explosive Giants offence off the field.

I love the head to head between the two quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning, both of whom can be put in the elite category. Brady needs to bounce back from a disappointing AFC Championship Game, while Manning has grown throughout the season. Brady will be going for his fourth Super Bowl ring, while Manning will be attempting to gain his second. If Brady is to solve the Giants' defence he'll need Rob Gronkowski to be fully healthy (unlikely) and the running game to give him something. He must also avoid throwing interceptions.

Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don't get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day.

The Giants had a regular season record of 9-7 against the Patriots' 13-3. But the New York schedule was savage - New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice - and they managed to go 8-2 in those ten games. New England struggled against quality opposition.

There are plenty of notable parts of this chess game that both teams need to make function but it may be some of the lesser moves that decide this one. There is little between the teams and for that reason I'll have to side with the Giants to maintain their hold over the Patriots. They can gain another Super Bowl victory in a year which has great symmetry with their previous run at the Lombardi Trophy four years ago.

Recommended Bet

Back New York Giants +3.5 @ [1.74] or better

There are a bewildering amount of markets available to Betfair punters looking for a wager on this year's Super Bowl. Let Andy Richmond lead you through a few suggested bets for Sunday night's showpiece...

Can the New York 'D' stop Tom Brady? Is the Pats' secondary just too weak against Eli Manning? Who are the men that can turn this game? We've drafted in The Guardian's American Football expert Paolo Bandini to answer the...

Andy Richmond has poured over the stats to bring you these insights on Sunday night's big game......

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Australian Open Tips: Favourite Djokovic to break British hearts

Australian Open Betting / Ben Caudell / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Djokovic and Murray are well matched - but the Serbian may have the edge

"The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets."

The stats suggest a close fought Australian Open Final on Sunday morning but a tough semi-final may have just taken the edge off of Murray, says Ben Caudell

Andy Murray (GBR) v Novak Djokovic (SRB)
The paths of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic converge once more having both successfully won through their semi-final matches to set-up an epic title showdown in Melbourne.

Both men will be familiar with one another's games having competed at junior level from the age of 12, and on to the professional circuit where they have battled it out on seven occasions.

The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic's favour, with six of the seven matches being played on hard-courts. But, interestingly enough, Murray has triumphed in their last three matches - all at Master Series level, and all in straight sets. Sunday morning's final is the pair's first best of five-set match played between the two 23-year-olds and the third final in a row.

Murray is clearly the best tactician on tour and if he can find the balance between his notorious defensive play and his attacking game that has so far proved to be extremely effective against his opponents in the previous rounds he will cause Djokovic difficulties.

The Brit star managed to change tactics with extreme precision when a set down against his dogged semi-final opponent, David Ferrer. Murray started to hit with considerably more depth and power, picking away at Ferrer's defensive wall, applying enough pressure for Ferrer to increase his unforced error count, eventually winning in four tough sets. If he is to succeed tomorrow he will have to apply similar methods.

Although the Serbian will be slightly worried by the fact that he has lost to Murray three times in a row, he will be more than delighted with his near perfect performance against the reigning champion Roger Federer in his semi-final match. It is very difficult to find fault with Djokovic's game at the moment and he is still on a massive high after winning the Davis Cup at the end of 2010 with Serbia.

Djokovic has won 11 matches in a row, his last nine in Australia, and has been victorious in his last nine five-set matches. He also holds better stats on hard courts than Murray. Djokovic will have the advantage of having won a Grand Slam title here back in 2008 and is the deserved favourite in the match odds @ [1.74] to succeed.

Moreover, the Serbian has had an extra day of rest, while Murray looked exhausted and maybe slightly injured after his semi-final. I have to side with Djokovic to win here for the second time in his career, unfortunately for Murray and Britain, the wait continues.

Recommended Bets:
Back Novak Djokovic @ [1.74] to win match
Back Djokovic 3-1 @ [4.8]

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