Showing posts with label Super. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super. Show all posts
Sunday, August 11, 2013
Saturday, April 13, 2013
IPL Betting: Chennai Super Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
"It is clear that any team is going to have trouble restricting Chennai. Even if the top order fail, CSK can call upon Dhoni, Jadeja and Bravo from number five, which brings almost any target within range and allows everyone to attack."
The teams currently rated second and third favourites to win the IPL square up for Saturday's second match. Paul Krishnamurty argues that, with home advantage, punters should stick with the reigning champions...
Chennai Super Kings v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Start Time: BST (15:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Chennai Super Kings
After surprisingly falling short in a run chase against Mumbai, Chennai got their 2013 campaign moving with a facile victory against Kings XI Punjab. Today's opposition will be much tougher but, after the way Murali Vijay and Mike Hussey chased down the target, it is clear that any team is going to have trouble restricting Chennai. Even if the top order fail, CSK can call upon Dhoni, Jadeja and Bravo from number five, which brings almost any target within range and allows everyone to attack. For that reason, CSK are generally a better bet when batting second, although a bowling attack spearheaded by Dirk Nannes and Ravi Ashwin is capable of doing damage on their own.
Royal Challengers Bangalore
With three wins from their first four matches, RCB are well set for another top-four play-off place. This away trip to the champions, however, is easily their hardest task to date. Now AB De Villiers has had a few days to settle in, Chris Gayle and Virat Kohli now have the back-up to chase down almost any total. With the ball, Vinay Kumar has been one of the stars of the tournament so far, changing the course of a couple of matches by bowling economically at the death.
First Innings Runs
Predicting the first innings total at Chennai is never straightforward. Some very high totals have been seen here, twice over 200 last season, but they owed as much to the hosts' brilliance as the ground. Five of the last 11 first innings here were under 150 and the pitch against Mumbai was pretty slow. Because both batting line-ups are so strong, I could see the market being pitched too high and if so, laying 160 or more could be worth an interest.
Match odds
These two teams could provide the perfect advert for IPL with some spectacular hitting. If it boils down to big totals, I would prefer Chennai because they bat so deep. Even Ashwin, coming at nine, is a dangerous slogger. Equally, if as expected, this is a low scoring match, the Chennai bowling attack would be slightly preferred. Dirk Nannes, for example, is well capable of stifling Gayle's early impact.
Top Chennai batsman
MS Dhoni and Mike Hussey have claimed top bat honours in CSK's two matches to date, so perhaps today it will be Suresh Raina's turn from this all-star line-up. Batting at number three and prolific in past IPLs, Raina is always a solid bet around the 4.67/2 mark.
Top Bangalore batsman
This market has been won twice each by Gayle and Kohli so far, but today it might be worth looking further down the order. Nannes will present a serious new-ball threat so it may fall upon the middle-order to rescue Bangalore. I'll go for sometimes number five and big finisher Moises Henriques at 11.010/1.
Recommended bet
Back Chennai @ 1.84/5
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Sunday, March 17, 2013
Super League betting: Leeds seeking to gain revenge
"Leeds suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Wigan in this fixture last season and I can see them getting their revenge"
Stuart Jones gives us his bet bets for the weekend
Leeds Rhinos vs Wigan Warriors
An in-and-out start to the season is just about par for the course where the Rhinos are concerned and predicting which Leeds side will turn up during the regular season doesn't look like getting any easier. Brian McDermott has named an unchanged nineteen from last week, meaning Ben Jones-Bishop and Zak Hardaker are still absent.
Wigan have had to rely heavily on their youth system so far this season and there academy products have certainly acquitted themselves well up to now. The losses of Lee Mossop and Harrison Hansen were a bitter blow to a side already lacking in experience, but Shaun Wane has at least been able to call upon Darrell Goulding in the centres after a short spell out.
Leeds suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Wigan in this fixture last season and I can see them getting their revenge, especially if rumours about Sam Tomkins missing the game are proved to be true.
Salford City Reds vs Warrington Wolves
A draw away to Wakefield was a sign that things may well be picking up for the Reds, that game the first in charge for caretaker boss Alan Hunte, but they may well have been fortunate to bump into a Wakefield side that were feeling the effects of pushing Huddersfield and Catalans close in the previous two rounds.
This is exactly the type of game in which Warrington bully their opposition, and even without Lee Briers, I see no reason as to why the Wolves can't rack up a big score against a side that still has a great deal to prove defensively.
Warrington should be keen to bounce back from their defeat to Saints last week and I can't see -17.5 being enough.
Huddersfield Giants vs Hull FC
Both of these sides were able to return to winning ways with their stand-off's back to fitness last Friday, with Huddersfield's Danny Brough playing a pivotal role in their win over the Leeds Rhinos at Headingley.
Huddersfield's large forward pack is what most people talk about when coming up against the Giants, but it's certainly no coincidence that their only defeat this season came when Brough was in the stands.
Daniel Holdsworth played his part in Hull's win over Castleford, though the result in that game was clear from a very early stage. Castleford's left-hand side proving to be extremely vulnerable with no less than seven of Hull's try's coming down that channel. The downside for Hull was that a brawl late on has resulted in them missing Danny Tickle through suspension.
The Giants may well have the chance to go top with a win here and I can't see them being turned over on home turf this time around.
1 pt Leeds to win outright @1.8810/11
2 pts on Warrington to win by -17.5 pts at 1.9110/11
back Huddersfield Giants to win by - 8.5 pts at 1.9110/11
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Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Donald McCain: Super Duty will run in Thursday's Kim Muir
"It’s a race we’ve won twice before and as long as the rain stays away, he (Super Duty) looks to be going there with plenty in his favour....."
Donald can confirm that Super Duty will sidestep Wednesday's RSA Chase and line up in the Kim Muir on Thursday afternoon.
After much discussion with the owners, I can confirm that Super Duty will be heading for the Kim Muir on Thursday rather than Wednesday's RSA Chase at Cheltenham.
Although the RSA looks to have been weakened with the defection of Dynaste, it's going to take some getting on the likely ground and with the forecast as it is, it might have dried out a little come the last race on Thursday.
We've got a top amateur booked and the betting suggests that he's got an obvious chance - it's always better to be going into meetings like this with 5-1 shots rather than 50-1!
It's a race we've won twice before and as long as the rain stays away, he looks to be going there with plenty in his favour.
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Friday, March 8, 2013
Timeform Dubai SmartPlays: Meydan Super Saturday, March 9
"...it seems reasonable to assume Igugu will again be very popular based on her reputation and it could be worth opposing her with Sharestan."
Our Dubai Handicapper Stephen Molyneux looks at Meydan's own Super Saturday card, picking out his three best bets.
Races for the classic generation at the Carnival have once again failed to set the pulse racing this year, and the Al Bastikiya at 13:05 is no different, but one horse who should go well is Snowboarder who finished second to Soft Falling Rain last time. It's fair to say he's not the classiest in the line-up, but he's consistent and, more importantly, looks sure to stay this far which is question mark that hangs over several of his rivals. He is still to finish out of the first three in seven career outings and he was the only one gaining on Soft Falling Rain in the UAE 2000 Guineas last time. He was relatively unconsidered in the betting that day, and there is a chance that could happen again with Mike de Kock having a couple of entries and Saeed bin Suroor the same, but they all have something to prove and it could be a case of Snowboarder merely needing to replicate that last run to come out on top.
Moonwalk In Paris made a very impressive start for Mahmood Al Zarooni when taking the Firebreak Stakes last time and he can follow up in the Burj Nahaar at 15:25. This will undoubtedly be a tougher test with the likes of Dullahan and African Story in there, but it seems reasonable to assume that they will need the outing ahead of bigger targets on World Cup night and Moonwalk In Paris can have pretensions to reach that level himself, looking every inch a Group 1 horse when beating Fulbright last time. He has only once finished out of the first three throughout his career and he should get the sound pace here that he clearly relished last time, Royal Ridge, Nawwaar, Unbridled Ocean and Red Jazz all potential pace angles. Ahmed Ajtebi keeps the ride which could lead people into thinking Godolphin have more fancied runners in the race, but Ajtebi was on board last time and it simply looks a case of him keeping the ride having done well on him previously.
Hard to know how the betting will go in the final race at 16:35, but it seems reasonable to assume Igugu will again be very popular based on her reputation and it could be worth opposing her with Sharestan. The selection did finish behind The Apache last time but met plenty of trouble that day, barely having a race, and he could easily have finished ahead of The Apache had things panned out differently. He had made a hugely encouraging debut for Godolphin prior to that and he is well worth another chance to build on that promise with the likely strong pace sure to be in his favour.
Timeform Dubai Smartplays
Back Snowboarder in the 13:05
Back Moonwalk In Paris in the 15:25
Back Sharestan in the 16:35
Download your Timeform card for Meydan now!
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Saturday, February 2, 2013
Donald McCain: Super Duty out to prove stamina at Wetherby
"I've always thought he (Super Duty) would get 3m well and this looked the right place to come with a view to deciding his target at the Cheltenham Festival....."
Donald is expecting a big run from Super Duty as he heads to Wetherby for the Towton Novices' Chase...
14.05 Ffos Las - Hollow Tree
He's got his share of weight as a result of his smart form last year and by running in a race like this, he does at least have to avoid lugging top weight around. It's going to be very testing ground which he has already proved he likes and although I think he will stay 3m in time, the drop back in trip certainly won't be a problem. It's obviously very competitive but it's what you expect in a £50k handicap - hopefully his proven ability in the mud will see him go well.
14.40 Ffos Las - Red Rocco
This obviously represents a step up in class for him but he's going the right way and the thorough test of stamina should suit him. Having just ten stone on his back will be in his favour in a race like this and although he needs to improve, he is less exposed than his rivals. Again, it's a valuable prize and if he can get into a nice rhythm in the early stages, he is capable of going well.
15.20 Wetherby - Super Duty
I've always thought he would get 3m well and this looked the right place to come with a view to deciding his target at the Cheltenham Festival. In an ideal world, he'd be having his first run at the trip on better ground than this but we need to crack on with him and he has proven he handles the mud - I was really pleased with him at Cheltenham last time. It looks competitive enough but he's still open to improvement over fences and looks to have a strong chance.
15.55 Wetherby - Dunowen Point
I didn't really have him down as a 2 ½ miler but he seemed to stay well enough when he won over hurdles at Sedgefield on Boxing Day and he was strong at the finish here last time. This probably isn't as competitive as it could be for the money on offer and if he does stay, he's got to have a chance - he's had his problems but he hasn't got that many miles on the clock.
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Super Bowl XLVII: Debut boys Flacco and Kaepernick set for big-scoring showdown
"Neither is likely to have the bad day at the office that Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders had in Super Bowl XXXVII, when he was intercepted for a record five times during the game, three of which were returned for touchdowns."
For the first time in five years the Super Bowl will feature two starting quarterbacks who have never played in the game before. What might this mean for your bets? Richard O'Hagan investigates.
One of the more unusual aspects of Sunday's Super Bowl is that neither starting quarterback has played in the game before. For Baltimore's Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick of San Francisco this is the first time that they have been exposed to the hype and worldwide media scrutiny that the final game of the NFL season always attracts.
It is the first time in five years that the game has seen both teams' quarterback making their debut, and only the 16th time overall that it has happened. That figure, of course, includes the very first Super Bowl of all, but to emphasise how unusual it is, it doesn't include the second game, where Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers made his second straight appearance.
Looking back at the performances of those debutant quarterbacks gives us a fair idea of how Flacco and Kaepernick might perform in the big game. For example, neither is likely to have the bad day at the office that Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders had in Super Bowl XXXVII, when he was intercepted for a record five times during the game, three of which were returned for touchdowns. Only four other debutant quarterbacks have ever thrown even one 'pick six' in a game. Similarly, neither is likely to emulate the performance of New England's Tony Eason in Super Bowl XX - also held in the Louisiana Superdome - who failed to complete a single pass and who was hauled out of the game before half time.
Probably the closest debutant to Kaepernick was Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger back in Super Bowl XL. Both are big men with strong arms and although Kaepernick is much more mobile, Big Ben still managed to join the very small number of debutant quarterbacks (five of them in fact) who have rushed for a touchdown. On the other hand, though, Roethlisberger only completed 9 of 21 pass attempts in that game and had two interceptions, whilst the only touchdown thrown by the Steelers was by wide receiver Antwan Randle El. That suggests that although the favourite first scoring play is a San Francisco touchdown, a Baltimore touchdown at 4.1n/a is the better bet.
Finding a comparator for Flacco is harder, because his inconsistent play makes him hard to rank among the very best. With that in mind, it might pay to consider the efforts of another unpredictable quarterback, Eli Manning.
Playing in Super Bowl XLII Manning completed 19 of 34 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. More importantly, he ended up on the winning side and stopped New England recording an unbeaten season in the process. Baltimore have, arguably, a weaker receiving corps than the Giants did on that day, but indoors in the Superdome it is easy to see Flacco putting up similar numbers and gaining an identical result. A Baltimore win can be backed at 2.68/5.
One area where having two debutants running the offenses does seem to make a difference is in the total number of points scored. If we take the last six occasions that this has occurred - which takes us back to Super Bowl XXXI and Brett Favre's first game, coincidentally also in the Superdome - then the average number of points scored in those games is 44.83. In all Super Bowls over that period the average number of points is 49.69, a difference of almost five points. However, the average number of points scored in games in the Super Dome recently has been 59.44 in 2011 and 56.50 this season. That makes the 2.186/5 on offer for a score of more than 48.5 points in this game still look very attractive.
Recommended Bet
Back a score of more than 48.5 points in the Super Bowl at odds of 2.186/5
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Monday, September 3, 2012
NFL Betting: Manning up for another Super Bowl push
"Of more impediment to Manning and the Broncos’ championship chances could be an ominous schedule."
Romilly Evans profiles the great Peyton Manning, who hopes to cap a glorious return from injury at the Denver Broncos
I don't know if any academic or geologist has ever produced a paper on the correlation between local landscape and local quarterbacks. But if they haven't, they might like to have a look at Denver's Mile High Stadium and its new resident quarterback, Peyton Manning.
The home of the Denver Broncos lies in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, offering glimpses of far off distant peaks. Manning, probably the greatest quarterback of his generation, returns to the NFL this Sunday from career-threatening neck surgery. It's a long way back to the heights he once scaled, but things are looking up.
A year ago, Manning could barely muster enough strength to shovel-pass. Now, however, after dangerous yet successful surgery and months of intensive rehab, he looks in rude health ahead of his 2012 curtain-call.
Pre-season has never been the province of definitive conclusions, but the league's four-time Most Valuable Player has certainly dispelled concerns that he won't don the starting jersey against Chicago (for which they are nine-point underdogs). In his last proper workout against the San Francisco 49ers, Manning threw for 122 yards off a limited series, completing 10 of 12 passes. His heavy-artillery arm is even back throwing bombs in practice.
Fantasy football rosters have been quick to secure Manning's services and all bets for Comeback Player of The Year are off. Sports Illustrated's esteemed scribe, Peter King, has even nominated him to lead to Broncos to this year's Super Bowl, collecting a fifth MVP award along the way.
Still, appearances can be deceptive. Manning is about to take his first snap in the regular season at the ripe old age of 36. He's clearly feeling the nerves, admitting to feeling like a rookie in the Rockies. Unfortunately for him, Manning won't enjoy the level of fan-patience usually afforded to rookies. That said, this consummate professional is used to performing under the weight of towering expectation. At Indianapolis (whose Colts he led to the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2007), he rejoiced is being the lynchpin about which his team revolved.
The pressure at Denver is compounded by the fact that the man who staked his reputation on Manning and convinced him to choose Mile High was Broncos legend, John Elway. The Hall of Famer turned vice president of football operations has shown some good sense when it comes to Manning's contract, factoring in a release should those neck issues reoccur. Still Elway doesn't sound like a worried man when discussing Manning's prospects.
Instead, he speaks like a punter who's secured a big price on the back of some privileged information.
"I never knew Peyton Manning at 100%," Elway confessed.
"But I just know, seeing what I've seen, that he can win a world championship in his current form."
Elway elaborated that he had reviewed tapes of his latest acquisition from 2010/11 and discerned little difference in his throwing mechanics and movement. A similar ability to deliver the ball with speed and accuracy even when his feet weren't planted proved the clincher: Manning could cut it. And that was without allowing for more room for improvement as he naturally reacclimatises to the rarefied air of game-day scenarios.
Of more impediment to Manning and the Broncos' championship chances could be an ominous schedule, whose difficulty factor ramps up consistently over the first eight weeks of the campaign. Their team-sheet sports more exciting new names from some wily free-agency deals, but they are untested as a cohesive unit. And at the top of this pyramid sits Manning, whose leadership will instil the overall structure with either strength or fragility. At least he can draw on a classy running back - in the dynamic Willis McGahee - to divert attention and provide balance to his offense.
So if Manning can lead this fledgling team to at least 4-4 by the term's midpoint, his Broncos should benefit from the ostensibly easier tests ahead in the regular season (they are currently available at 20.019/1 to back for Super Bowl glory). It's a rocky road back from the lowlands of despair to the peak of performance. A trail perhaps best left untravelled. Manning, though, already knows that no summit is beyond his compass.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2012
IPL Betting: Delhi Daredevils v Chennai Super Kings
Indian Premier League - IPL 
/ Richard O’Hagan / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Ravindra Jadeja is starting to justify his price tag
"Picking a winner from two teams who have been inconsistent as these two is a difficult call, but the way that CSK beat a poor Deccan side was so compellingly ruthless it would be wise to back them at odds of 1.64."
Defending champions Chennai have blown hot and cold in their first two matches of this year's edition and the same can be said of Delhi. But Chennai are the more consistent performers and in Ravindra Jadeja have a player who can have a big impact on this year's edition, says Richard O'Hagan.
Delhi
With one resounding victory and one crushing defeat to their name so far, it is hard to know what to make of this year's incarnation of the Daredevils. Morne Morkel has been a star with the ball, picking up five wickets so far. Aaron Finch, overlooked by Australia again, has been consistent at the top of the order, whilst Irfan Pathan has scored 66 runs at a strike rate of 135.0. Others, however, failed to keep up with them in both games, with captain Virender Sehwag falling for two soft dismissals in the competition already.
Chennai
The defending champions have had a similarly erratic start to their 2012 campaign, being thumped by Mumbai in the tournament opener but then crushing Deccan by 74 runs in their other game. In the second game Ravindra Jadeja certainly lived up to his tag as the IPL's most expensive player with 48 runs with the bat and then taking 5-16 with the ball, as the Chargers collapsed. Their own captain has been a disappointment, MS Dhoni amassing only 11 runs from two innings so far. South African Albie Morkel has also had a poor couple of games and could be replaced by Sri Lanka's Nuwan Kulasekara.
Venue and conditions
This is the first game of IPL2012 at the Feroz Shah Kotla. Delhi only won one match at home last season and will be hoping to put a stop to that run in this match. A light rain shower or two may affect the game, but play should not be delayed for long.
Picking a winner from two teams who have been inconsistent as these two is a difficult call, but the way that CSK beat a poor Deccan side was so compellingly ruthless it would be wise to back them at odds of [1.82].
With Pathan being rotated about the batting order according to the match circumstances the solid bet is Finch at odds of 4.5 - as an opener he is at least guaranteed to get a knock.
Selecting the leading batsman for a side who have thus far spread whatever runs they have scored among them is hard, but young South African all rounder Faf du Plessis has looked solid in everything except his running between the wickets and struck four sixes in making 39 against Deccan. He should be available at odds of [5.0].
Best Bet
Aaron Finch to top score for Delhi at odds of around [4.0].
The big-spending Kolkata Knight Riders are winless at the moment and won't be relishing a trip to Bangalore, who may welcome back Chris Gayle after an injury. Kolkata haven't found a winning formula yet and we should expect that to...
Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the contest at the VDCA Cricket Stadium in Visakhapatnam...
Pune showed that they're not just in this year's IPL to make up the numbers with a defeat of Mumbai last time out, but can they follow up that victory with another win here?...
Friday, March 16, 2012
Cheltenham Result: Jewson joy for super Sir
News / Timeform / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Sir Des Champs was victorious in the Jewson.
"He was very good and I'm really looking forward to next year over longer trips..."
Sir Des Champs maintained his unbeaten record for Willie Mullins with a clear-cut victory in the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival...
The six-year-old, ridden by Davy Russell, shrugged off the attentions of Champion Court after the last to bound clear for a convincing four-and-a-half-length success.
For Non Stop was another nine lengths back in third, while fancied runners Peddlers Cross and Cristal Bonus were both disappointing as Sir Des Champs proved a classy winner.
Champion Court and Zaynar took the field along in turns, with Micheal Flips close up and Sir Des Champs not too far away.
Cristal Bonus was soon struggling, while Peddlers Cross lost a good early pitch and a couple of mistakes saw him lose further ground.
Champion Court went on at the 11th fence, but Mullins' representative followed his move and they battled it out over the last couple of fences.
The Irish raider then showed his superiority to score in tremendous style for owners Gigginstown House Stud, the racing establishment of Michael O'Leary.
Winning jockey Russell said: "He's a very good horse.
"A lot of the credit should go to Aaron Madden who absolutely adores this horse, and since the first day he landed he's looked after him and he's done such a wonderful job.
"He jumped every fence, he never missed a beat."
Owner Michael O'Leary said: "It was a wonderful ride by Davy.
"We've been hitting the crossbar all week so it's great to finally stick one in the net.
"It's hard to know what you've got until you get here. Willie brought him along slowly and probably thought he wanted a lot further - he could have run in the other race (RSA Chase).
"We went close in that with First Lieutenant but we've won this."
Mullins said: "He was very good and I'm really looking forward to next year over longer trips.
"He was foot-perfect. Davy asked him plenty of questions and he came up every time.
"Davy rode him with great confidence. A good pace and plenty of jumping will suit him best."
The 2013 Gold Cup market is just beginning to take shape, featurning the likes of Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth alongside Long Run and Grands Crus.
There's a trial for the Kentucky Derby (May 5) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday in the shape of the Rebel Stakes, in which TVG's latest feature star Scatman is set to go close....
An impressive line up of three-year-olds is set to do battle in Saturday's Group 1 Randwick Guineas (off 05:20 GMT), the first group one for their age group during the Sydney Autumn Carnival writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe....
TVG's Simon Bray takes a look at the main contenders for this weekend's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, often a key trial for the Kentucky Derby on May 5......
Cheltenham Result: Jewson joy for super Sir
News / Timeform / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Sir Des Champs was victorious in the Jewson.
"He was very good and I'm really looking forward to next year over longer trips..."
Sir Des Champs maintained his unbeaten record for Willie Mullins with a clear-cut victory in the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival...
The six-year-old, ridden by Davy Russell, shrugged off the attentions of Champion Court after the last to bound clear for a convincing four-and-a-half-length success.
For Non Stop was another nine lengths back in third, while fancied runners Peddlers Cross and Cristal Bonus were both disappointing as Sir Des Champs proved a classy winner.
Champion Court and Zaynar took the field along in turns, with Micheal Flips close up and Sir Des Champs not too far away.
Cristal Bonus was soon struggling, while Peddlers Cross lost a good early pitch and a couple of mistakes saw him lose further ground.
Champion Court went on at the 11th fence, but Mullins' representative followed his move and they battled it out over the last couple of fences.
The Irish raider then showed his superiority to score in tremendous style for owners Gigginstown House Stud, the racing establishment of Michael O'Leary.
Winning jockey Russell said: "He's a very good horse.
"A lot of the credit should go to Aaron Madden who absolutely adores this horse, and since the first day he landed he's looked after him and he's done such a wonderful job.
"He jumped every fence, he never missed a beat."
Owner Michael O'Leary said: "It was a wonderful ride by Davy.
"We've been hitting the crossbar all week so it's great to finally stick one in the net.
"It's hard to know what you've got until you get here. Willie brought him along slowly and probably thought he wanted a lot further - he could have run in the other race (RSA Chase).
"We went close in that with First Lieutenant but we've won this."
Mullins said: "He was very good and I'm really looking forward to next year over longer trips.
"He was foot-perfect. Davy asked him plenty of questions and he came up every time.
"Davy rode him with great confidence. A good pace and plenty of jumping will suit him best."
The 2013 Gold Cup market is just beginning to take shape, featurning the likes of Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth alongside Long Run and Grands Crus.
There's a trial for the Kentucky Derby (May 5) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday in the shape of the Rebel Stakes, in which TVG's latest feature star Scatman is set to go close....
An impressive line up of three-year-olds is set to do battle in Saturday's Group 1 Randwick Guineas (off 05:20 GMT), the first group one for their age group during the Sydney Autumn Carnival writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe....
TVG's Simon Bray takes a look at the main contenders for this weekend's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, often a key trial for the Kentucky Derby on May 5......
Friday, March 9, 2012
Meydan Super Saturday: Godolphin hold strong hand
News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Godolphin will be well represented at Meydan on Saturday.
"Four Godolphin contenders head for the second Group One, the Jebel Hatta over nine furlongs on turf..."
Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night...
This year's fixture includes a pair of Group One contests for the first time and Godolphin is well represented in both.
There are five or six horses going for Round Three of the Maktoum Challenge over 10 furlongs on Tapeta.
Saeed bin Suroor is represented by Prince Bishop (Frankie Dettori), Mendip (Kieren Fallon) and Spring Of Fame (Johnny Murtagh), with Mahmood Al Zarooni responsible for Monterosso (Mickael Barzalona) and Capponi (Ahmed Ajtebi) plus first reserve Biondetti.
Four Godolphin contenders head for the second Group One, the Jebel Hatta over nine furlongs on turf, with Rio De La Plata (Frankie Dettori), Pisco Sour (Silvestre de Sousa) and Secrecy (Kieren Fallon) from Saeed bin Suroor's Al Quoz Stables and Mahmood Al Zarooni being represented by City Style (Mickael Barzalona).
Both trainers are also interested in the Group Two Dubai City Of Gold, with Mahmood Al Zarooni intending to run Shimraan (Frankie Dettori), Dubai Prince (Ahmed Ajtebi) and Laajooj (Mickael Barzalona).
Songcraft (Silvestre de Sousa), Campanologist (Kieren Fallon), Once More Dubai (Ted Durcan) and Cavalryman (Olivier Peslier) are due to line up in the mile and a half contest on turf for Saeed bin Suroor.
Global City (Mickael Barzalona) is set for the Group Three Mahab Al Shimaal over six furlongs on Tapeta, and the sprinter's trainer Saeed bin Suroor is also responsible for Godolphin's two participants in the Group Three Burj Nahaar over a mile on Tapeta - African Story (Frankie Dettori) and Dysphonia (Silvestre de Sousa).
Mahmood Al Zarooni runs Kinglet (Mickael Barzalona) and Counterglow (Frankie Dettori) in the remaining thoroughbred race on the card, the Listed Al Bastakiya over an extended nine furlongs on Tapeta.
.............
Visit timeform.com to download a race card for Saturday's meeting at Meydan.
Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....
Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......
The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot......
Super League Betting: Rhinos to rumble past Warrington
Super League / Stuart Jones / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will Kevin Sinfield be saluting the faithful after full time at Headingley
"Leeds are going well, but they will need to be at their best to overcome a quality Warrington side. The Rhinos bombed several chances out wide at Cas, with Hardaker and Webb butchering several overlaps on the left channel. The margin for error won’t be so great this week."
The Super League gets ever more super with a top of the table clash between Leeds and Warrington to whet the whistle on Friday evening. Stuart Jones previews that big clash as well as Hull KR's home fixture with Bradford in his weekly betting preview
Defending champions Leeds Rhinos entertain league leaders Warrington at Headingley on Friday evening and the layers are understandably finding it very difficult to split the two sides.
Leeds have gone unbeaten since losing to Wigan in the week before the World Club Challenge and, though Castleford briefly looked like making a game of it last week, the Rhinos never truly looked like losing their lead.
Not for the first time, Brian McDermott's men were guilty of overplaying having gone 18 points up early on. Had Chris Clarkson and Carl Ablett not combined to bomb a certain try after Kallum Watkin's breakaway effort, it would have been 24-0 and the game would have been over much earlier.
Leeds are going well, but they will need to be at their best to overcome a quality Warrington side. The Rhinos bombed several chances out wide at Cas, with Hardaker and Webb butchering several overlaps on the left channel. The margin for error won't be so great this week.
Chris Bridge misses the game through suspension, but it's again testament to the strength in depth that Tony Smith has developed in his squad that he can choose between two exciting prospects in Stefan Ratchford and Rhys Evans to cover in the centres.
Warrington may have failed to impress against Bradford last week but it was more a case of Wire just going through the motions as opposed to an alarming dip in form. An improved effort from Bradford combined with an early injury to Lee Briers ensuring that Warrington never pulled away.
In the absence of Michael Monaghan, it seems hard to justify Warrington being a shade of odds on away from home, and in front of a packed Headingley Stadium Leeds look the call in receipt of a two-and-a-half point start.
Hull KR have started the season well and they look to continue their good form against Bradford at Craven Park on Saturday evening.
Kr held St Helens to a 36-36 draw at home earlier in the season and kept a clean sheet against bottom of the table Widnes last weekend. Constantine Mika has been one of the key players for Hull this season and he is amongst this week's 19-man squad having missed the latest round through suspension. In the absence of Blake Green, the form of Craig Hall at stand off has been key and he has chipped in with three tries this season.
Bradford produced one of their best performances of the season last week, but have subsequently been hit by a number of injuries, with Elliott Kear, Craig Kopczack and Ian Sibbit joining Luke Gale, Chev Walker, James Donaldson, Adrian Purtell and Olivier Elima on the sidelines. The loss of Kopczack is a big blow to forwards, whilst Kear has impressed defensively I an area where Bradford were particularly weak last term.
I expect that injury list and a big effort against Warrington to take its toll on the Bulls and am happy to side with Hull KR giving up a ten point start.
Recommended Bets
Back Leeds +2.5 points @ [1.91]
Back Hull KR -10.5 points @ [1.91]
Stuart Jones predicts a highscoring game between two Yorkshire sides on Friday night. Meanwhile, Wire should outclass the Bulls on Saturday......
Stuart Jones selects the best bets as the Dragons bid to pull off an upset at Langtree Park and Wakey meet the Bulls in a West Yorks derby......
The World Club Challenge is a tough one to call so caution is advised. However, back in Super League, the Giants might have bitten off more than they can chew against the Wolves......
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
US Politics: How to make money betting on Super Tuesday
US Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Some of America's key political battlegrounds vote on Super Tuesday
"If Romney wins, he will have the candidacy all but sewn up. Victory for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the race."
The race for the Republican nomination goes into overdrive on Tuesday - will Mitt Romney seal the deal or will Messrs Santorum, Gingrich and Paul scupper him once again? Our own Paul - Krishnamurty - explains the complex voting process and selects the best bets...
It may seem like the Republican nomination race has been running for an eternity, but in numerical terms at least, we're only just getting started. Of the total 2,286 delegates up for grabs, only 317 have so far been awarded from the 12 states to have voted already. Ten more states decide on Tuesday, with a further 437 delegates in play. The various distinctions between each particular contest, types of delegate and process for distributing them is extremely complicated, so it may be best to refer to this comprehensive guide from the New York Times' Nate Silver. Here's the lowdown on Tuesday's ten contests.
Total Delegates: 66
Latest odds: Romney [1.3]. Santorum [4.3]
Of the ten states voting on Super Tuesday, Ohio is undoubtably the most significant for two reasons. First, with polls showing a virtual dead-heat, this is the contest into which Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have thrown the most resources. If the former wins, he will have his party's candidacy all but sewn up. A win for Santorum, however, could signal a reversal of momentum that transforms the longer race.
Secondly, this will probably be the most important swing state in November. Ohio has picked the last ten winning Presidents, so each candidate's ability to connect with it's rural, blue-collar inhabitants is deemed a useful guide to wider electorability. Fears that Romney does no such thing keeps Republicans strategists awake at night. Nevertheless, market moves in the wake of Romney's three key victories in Arizona, Michigan and Washington must offer them some relief. Previous polls showing double-digit leads for Santorum had seen the former Pennsylvania Senator's price collapse to [1.4], but with the gap now substantially reduced, Romney is back into [1.27].
Total Delegates: 49
Latest odds: Romney [1.01]. Paul [36.0]
Events in Virginia explain why Romney seems increasingly likely to win the nomination, despite many weaknesses and significant hostility from his party's base. Whereas Romney's massively funded campaign never stopped organising after defeat in 2008, his principal rivals only recently moved into first gear. Six months ago, few thought either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich was a front-line candidate or likely to be the standard-bearer of the right. Consequently, neither got enough signatures to ensure a place on this ballot, and a state that might otherwise have proved extremely difficult for Romney is now a certain victory, with only Ron Paul in opposition.
Total Delegates: 58
Latest odds: Santorum [1.65], Romney [2.5]
This Southern state is an absolute must-win for Santorum, although again his challenge seems to be losing momentum. Romney was always expected to struggle in this ultra-Conservative part of America, and Santorum looked a shoe-in at [1.2] just a week ago when polls showed him ahead by up to 21%. The most recent numbers show that lead reduced to just 4%, forcing his odds out to [1.65].
Total Delegates: 76
Latest odds: Gingrich [1.05], Romney [16.0]
Georgia offers the most delegates of any Super Tuesday state and, as Newt Gingrich's home state, seems likely to buck recent nationwide trends. As odds of [1.05] suggest, the former Speaker is expected to clean up and earn enough delegates to justify staying in the contest. Regrouping here has been the gameplan ever since losing Florida, although Newt wasn't counting on Santorum emerging to steal his thunder as the 'anti-Romney' in the meantime. Gingrich's route to the Presidency now seems extremely convoluted, relying on neither Romney or Santorum doing enough to be declared the wider 'winner' on Super Tuesday, which might then make his own campaign seem relevant again.
Total Delegates: 43
Latest odds: Santorum [1.18], Romney [8.0], Gingrich [8.0]
If the New York Times Primary Projections are to be believed, Oklahoma is Santorum's best chance of a Super Tuesday victory, estimated at 91%. The market agrees, with [1.18] his last price matched.
Total Delegates: 27
Latest odds: Romney [1.26], Paul [5.0], Santorum [8.2]
This is one of three minor caucuses where an almost total lack of polling makes it very hard to get a clear picture. Romney won here in an otherwise poor 2008 campaign so must be expected to do so again, but there is one potential complication. Alaska is Sarah Palin's state, and as the most prominent voice in the "Anyone but Romney" faction within the Tea Party, her intervention could make a difference. On the other hand, her term as Governor was so controversial that her relevance and popularity should not be taken as a given.
Total Delegates: 32
Latest odds: Romney [1.03], Paul [26.0], Santorum 65.0]
Similarly, a lack of polling makes Idaho hard to predict. Arguably the best guide is the strength of each candidate's organisation. Santorum and Gingrich lack the resources to fight far beyond their main targets, so are unlikely to trouble Romney's super-rich campaign in this type of contest. However, Ron Paul has made targetting the caucuses his central strategy, and the advantage of his supporters' presence could potentially pull off a shock somewhere. Given that Paul won a Straw Poll in Idaho, this looks as likely as anywhere.
Total Delegates: 28
Latest odds: Romney [1.25], Santorum [6.2], Paul [8.0]
Again it's hard to get a clear picture of opinion in this state, although the fact Romney won here in 2008 should bode well for his chances. So must the endorsement of popular former Governor, Senator John Hoeven.
Total Delegates: 41
Latest odds: Romney [1.01], Santorum [65.0], Paul [65.0]
This is the state where Romney was formerly Governor, so anything other than an easy win would represent an enormous shock.
Total Delegates: 17
Latest odds: Romney [1.05], Santorum [10.0]
Likewise this neighbouring state, historically one of the America's most moderate, is safe Romney country and unlikely to offer much in the way of betting interest.
Romney now [1.27] for the Republican nomination after holding off Santorum challenge to extend lead ahead of Super Tuesday bonanza...
All the latest on the US presidential election race, including why Mitt Romney has got himself into a bit of a pickle over the past few weeks and is worth taking on at very short odds-on for the Michigan primary....
More drama from the US as social conservative candidate pulls off shock hat-trick and Romney backers get burnt. Paul Krishnamurty explains what it all means for the race and the markets......
Friday, February 17, 2012
Betfair Super Saturday Chase: Sacre faces five at Newbury
News / Timeform / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Newbury stages the Betfair Super Saturday Chase.
"He just has such scope and he can do extraordinary things..."
Sprinter Sacre steps out of novice company for the first time in the rescheduled Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury on Friday...
The two-mile-one-furlong prize has attracted six runners, headed by this Nicky Henderson-trained superstar.
After turning in a superb round of jumping on his fencing debut at Doncaster, Sprinter Sacre pummelled Peddlers Cross at Kempton to leap to the head of the ante-post betting for the Arkle at Cheltenham next month.
"He's done what we've asked him and he was a very good novice hurdler, plus bumper horse plus everything," said Henderson.
"One always rather hoped that when he got jumping fences you might see something a bit special and he has been so far.
"He just has such scope and he can do extraordinary things."
Henderson has an interesting second string in French Opera, who won this race 12 months ago but has not been seen since winning last year's Celebration Chase at Sandown.
Perhaps Sprinter Sacre's biggest danger is Hold Fast, who earned this step up in class with a runaway victory in a Sandown handicap.
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls is keen to learn whether the eight-year-old is a serious contender for the Champion Chase.
"He's going the same route as Master Minded took in his first season - I'm not saying he's Master Minded or anything like that but Friday will tell us whether we go for the Champion Chase or the Grand Annual," said Nicholls.
"He'll improve, but Ruby (Walsh) keeps saying he needs to go right-handed, but then he used to keep saying that about Master Minded as well."
Zaynar comes back in distance having run well in an Ascot handicap last month, while I'm So Lucky looks up against it having run down the field in the VC Chase on the same afternoon.
Rank outsider Kinkeel completes the field.
Jessica Harrington has decided against running Steps To Freedom at Dundalk on Friday and he will now head straight to next month's Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham......
Last week the world's highest Timeform rated sprinter Black Caviar (135+) put to rest any doubts about her handling 1400m with an emphatic victory in the G1 C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield however on Saturday she faces a new challenge....
Leading RSA Chase fancy Last Instalment has been ruled out of the Cheltenham Festival with a leg injury......
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Free Friday replaces Super Saturday
News / Timeform / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment "The first three races of a seven-race card will be on Channel 4."
Sponsors Betfair have made entry to Newbury's rescheduled meeting on Friday free to all racegoers, making it quite probably the best free day's racing ever...
Last weekend's 'Super Saturday' fixture had to be abandoned after an inspection on Friday morning due to snow on the track, but the British Horseracing Authority reached an agreement with Newbury, Betfair, the Levy Board and Channel 4 Racing to restage the superb card.
Betfair have added further prize-money to the card to ensure the Betfair Hurdle will remain the most valuable handicap hurdle race in the UK, as well as making access for punters free to see the likes of Long Run.
Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin said: "When we first announced that we were taking over the sponsorship of the Totesport Trophy and re-named the meeting 'Betfair Super Saturday', we wanted to make a statement and the newly-titled Betfair Hurdle became the UK's richest handicap hurdle.
"To maintain that race description at Friday's rescheduled meeting, we today actually had to increase the money we put into the original sponsorship package, maintaining original prize money levels for the race of £152,500."
The Betfair Super Saturday Chase, better known as the Game Spirit, will kick off the rescheduled seven-race card at 12:15 this Friday.
Exciting novice Sprinter Sacre has been re-entered for that race, while his Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning stablemate Long Run has been re-entered in the Betfair Denman Chase, and luckily for racegoers, Nicky Henderson suggested over the weekend that both will go to post on Friday.
He said: "I do want Sprinter Sacre to have another run and I think Long Run is better with a run.
"It would be another week to Newbury and we're getting closer (to Cheltenham) but I think he'd run again.
"We need to run the horses and depending what exactly they put on, I'd hope we'd be supporting it with the same sort of team."
The BHA confirmed that the Betfair Hurdle, the Betfair Denman Chase and the Betfair Super Saturday Chase would be saved, along with the Scilly Isles' Novices' Chase, already rescheduled from a meeting abandoned at Sandown.
A BHA press release read: "Following the abandonment of racing at Newbury on Saturday, the British Horseracing Authority, in conjunction with the Levy Board, has granted Newbury a replacement fixture to be staged on Friday 17 February.
"The major races lost from Saturday's card will be rescheduled, including the previously rescheduled Scilly Isles Novices' Chase.
"The first three races of a seven-race card will be on Channel 4."
The original entries for the Betfair Hurdle Race will stand and entries for all of the other six races can be seen at: www.timeform.com/free
Newbury managing director Stephen Higgins said: "It is important that the key races that were due to run last Saturday are replaced.
"Therefore it's with thanks to the BHA, the Levy Board and our sponsors Betfair that we are pleased to announce that we will be able to stage them a week today.
"We hope to attract a quality card, with the Betfair Hurdle still valued at £152,500 making it the UK's richest handicap hurdle, as well as Gold Cup winner Long Run still being an intended runner and with free entry we encourage racegoers to come to Newbury on Friday and enjoy a great days racing."
Champion trainer Paul Nicholls voiced his agreement, saying in his Betfair blog: "Losing Newbury was a big blow - but at least it has been softened by the news that the whole meeting has been transferred to Friday, live on Channel 4.
"So fair play to all concerned in making this happen.
"And it is especially pleasing to see that the Betfair Hurdle retains its original prize money of £152,500 and will still be run as Europe's richest handicap hurdle, despite the race being run on a Friday.
"Last year (when restaged) it was run for a fraction of that, with the winner only getting just over £34,000.
"As long as they are all fit and well, then all the horses I was going to run at Newbury will turn out on Friday - and that includes Zarkandar (Betfair Hurdle).
"I would not be overly-concerned if a lot of my horses had to go straight to Cheltenham - I can get them fresh, fit and well at home - but it is a different story for horses that haven't yet run this season. So Zarkandar will run."
............
Get unsurpassed levels of analysis and statistics for any race in Britain and Ireland with Timeform Race Passes. Click HERE to find out more.
Long Run, winner of last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup, could face seven rivals in Friday's Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury......
Exciting novice chaser Sprinter Sacre heads a list of nine entries for Friday's Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury......
Prix de 'Arc de Triomphe winner Danedream is likely to start off her season with a run at home in late spring before trainer Peter Schiergen plots serious European targets......
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Betfair Super Saturday: Will star-studded Newbury card get go-ahead?
News / Timeform / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Newbury is hoping to beat the frost
"There has been steady money for “Yes” in the "Will Racing Go Ahead" market..."
With Saturday's card at Newbury at the mercy of the elements, Betfair have opened a market regarding whether racing will take place...
Punters and racing fans hoping that this coming Saturday's Betfair-sponsored Newbury "Super Saturday" jumps card will take place, despite harsh weather, must have been encouraged by Tweets from the course's Stephen Higgins on Tuesday.
Higgins said "[the odds of racing to be on at Newbury on Saturday are] very tempting, given temp forecast of 0 to -1 on Friday night" and followed it soon after with "Newbury won't be off, so no need to worry."
There has been steady money for "Yes" in the "Will Racing Go Ahead?" market for the event, with [1.70] offered at the time of writing from a high of [2.20].
If you disagree with Higgins, "No" can be backed at [2.0].
Snow and sub-zero temperatures have caused the cancellation of several meetings in Britain in the last week, and weather forecasts suggest things won't improve for a while yet. Doncaster's Thursday jumps card was called off as early as Tuesday lunchtime.
Saturday's Newbury card - if it beats the elements - will feature: the Grade 1 Betfair (Scilly Isles) Novice Chase; the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase; the Grade 2 Betfair Super Saturday (Game Spirit) Chase; and the Grade 3 Betfair Handicap Hurdle.
Ante-post markets exist for the Betfair Denman Chase and the Betfair Handicap Hurdle, with reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run a hot favourite at [1.50] for the former and last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar as short as [4.3] for the latter.
Paul Nicholls believes there will be little to choose between old rivals Kauto Star and Long Run as the pair prepare to lock horns for a fifth time in next month's Cheltenham Gold Cup....
Blenheim Brook booked himself a ticket to next month's Cheltenham Festival with a fine performance in the novice chase at Ayr on Monday, the highlight of a treble for trainer Lucinda Russell....
Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Long Run could face up to 10 rivals as he bids to get off the mark for the season in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury......
Monday, February 6, 2012
Super Bowl Betting: New York can break Patriots hearts again
NFL / Andy Richmond / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Brady v Manning - we can't wait!
"Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don’t get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day."
Andy Richmond is relishing the elite quarter-back duel that Sunday night's Super Bowl will deliver. But, as our man explains, there's far more to New England Patriots v New York Giants than that...
Superbowl XLVI
New England Patriots v New York Giants
Sunday February 5
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:30 - KO 23:30
Match odds: New England [1.74] New York Giants [2.34]
"The four biggest holiday celebrations in the United States are Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and the Super Bowl." - The Washington Post.
Much of the talk and analysis around Super Bowl XLVI has focused on the last time these two met four years ago in Super Bowl XLII. But, as I wrote in an earlier column this week, the game that provides a better template for this contest is the match-up from week nine.
Plenty of theories abound about how the Patriots and Giants can win the game. We know that the Giants need to exert pressure on Tom Brady, how dangerous the Patriots two tight-ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are, that we have two of the best slot receivers in the game today in Victor Cruz and Wes Welker taking part, and that the Patriots secondary has been both porous and poor all year. But what about the other elements which could prove game changing?
Both sides are known as primarily passing teams, but I think that both the Patriots and the Giants will attempt to run the ball a little more than they have this season. The Patriots take to the air for 59.5 percent of their offensive plays, but they might try a few more running plays to test the Giants' run-stopping ability. The Giants give up 121.6 rushing yards per game and allow 4.5 yards per run. From the no-huddle, Brady might try more shotgun handoffs to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the other running backs. If it works, the Pats might have a more balanced offense than they've shown this season. The Giants run game had a horrible season but both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have got better and better in the post season. There's excitement about the triumvirate of New York wide receivers but the Giants run game must not be underestimated. It will prove vital in a foil to the passing game.
Tom Brady tossed two interceptions in that week nine loss to the Giants and New York scored 10 points off those turnovers. Since then Brady has taken more care of the football and only been picked off twice. Here he's bound to face the Giants "big nickel" defence again. With the Giants thin at linebacker they often replace a linebacker with a third safety in Deon Grant; that scheme is called a "big nickel" and they use it because it matches up well with all the Patriots two tight-end sets and shutting them down would give the Giants a significant advantage.
I've already mentioned the Giants pass-rush but how are the Patriots going to counteract the awesome foursome? For Bill O'Brien, the Patriots offensive coordinator, this is his biggest concern as the Giants had 34 sacks using four or fewer defenders. I suspect that O'Brien will attempt to slow down the pass rush by throwing lots of screens and tire the Giants defence out by keeping them on the field with plenty of no-huddle offence, a tactic that Brady is particularly adept at running. This would also prove a viable tactic to keep the more explosive Giants offence off the field.
I love the head to head between the two quarterbacks Tom Brady and Eli Manning, both of whom can be put in the elite category. Brady needs to bounce back from a disappointing AFC Championship Game, while Manning has grown throughout the season. Brady will be going for his fourth Super Bowl ring, while Manning will be attempting to gain his second. If Brady is to solve the Giants' defence he'll need Rob Gronkowski to be fully healthy (unlikely) and the running game to give him something. He must also avoid throwing interceptions.
Manning without doubt has the momentum in terms of performance and, if the Patriots don't get pressure on him, the New England secondary is in for a long and tempestuous day.
The Giants had a regular season record of 9-7 against the Patriots' 13-3. But the New York schedule was savage - New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice - and they managed to go 8-2 in those ten games. New England struggled against quality opposition.
There are plenty of notable parts of this chess game that both teams need to make function but it may be some of the lesser moves that decide this one. There is little between the teams and for that reason I'll have to side with the Giants to maintain their hold over the Patriots. They can gain another Super Bowl victory in a year which has great symmetry with their previous run at the Lombardi Trophy four years ago.
Recommended Bet
Back New York Giants +3.5 @ [1.74] or better
There are a bewildering amount of markets available to Betfair punters looking for a wager on this year's Super Bowl. Let Andy Richmond lead you through a few suggested bets for Sunday night's showpiece...
Can the New York 'D' stop Tom Brady? Is the Pats' secondary just too weak against Eli Manning? Who are the men that can turn this game? We've drafted in The Guardian's American Football expert Paolo Bandini to answer the...
Andy Richmond has poured over the stats to bring you these insights on Sunday night's big game......
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Super Bowl Betting: Coughlin plots another defeat of old rival
Super Bowl / Romilly Evans / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Tom Coughlin has a habit of delivering when it matters most
"The trouble with Coughlin, is that he seldom gets the results in flashy fashion. Nor does he even get them consistently. Apart from when it matters most."
Romilly Evans profiles Giants coach, Tom Coughlin, who faces old adversary Bill Belichick in Sunday's big one looking to once again turn the odds on their head
Tom Coughlin is something of a maverick. Less the shiny, happy NFL coach of slick soundbites and slicker hair. More the gnarled, gritty war veteran of one too many tours of duty. The kind of pugnacious pooch you'd gladly let have a scamper round the park, but would never take to Crufts.
Fortunately for Coughlin, he plies he trade on the park, not a conformation show. Nevertheless, it's taken a while for fans and commentators alike to appreciate just what this somewhat unfashionable coach has to offer. Which is strange when you look at his credentials that reflect some impressive work at both collegiate and professional level.
The trouble with Coughlin, though, is that he seldom gets the results in flashy fashion. Nor does he even get them consistently. Apart from when it matters most. After a three-year spell at Boston College, Coughlin got the inaugural head coaching gig as the Jacksonville Jaguars where he led his charges to the AFC Championship Game in only their second year of existence. Pretty impressive on paper, but even then the doubters were circling after Coughlin posted a mere 9-7 in the regular season. The play-off push silenced them, as did the Jags' return trip to the Conference Championship in 1999. Coughlin was building a reputation for training teams to punch above their weight when it mattered most.
However, after a few more seasons mired in mediocrity, the knives were again out for Coughlin. A change of scenery to the New York Giants did little to arrest the slide, as the Big Blue fell to 6-10 in his first season. Still, Coughlin only needs a year to get his teeth into the root of a problem. And he again managed to work the oracle, qualifying for the post-season in successive 2004/5 campaigns via the Wildcard Game.
Not that the snipers had lowered their sights. Consecutive losses in their play-off openers (coupled to average regular seasons) were deemed too small a return for the Giants, in spite of a three-star teamsheet. And when that trend continued with the Giants losing the first two games of 2007, Coughlin was a dead man walking. But this stubborn 65-year-old was too stubborn to hear.
"I just kept the blinders on," he would later comment. His team would follow suit, refocusing and rebounding to six straight wins. They were back in play-off country against the odds.
The rest, of course, is history. The Giants blazed a trail of on-the-road upsets all the way to the Vince Lombardi trophy. Coughlin had done it again, taking an ordinary side to extraordinary heights. In short, he welded a team which was greater than the sum of its parts. It's become his trademark.
The 2007 Giants even confounded the stats (for so long Coughlin's enemy) by becoming one of the happy few to have bested the top two seeds in their conference en route to Super Bowl glory. They said it wouldn't be done again. At least that was until the 2011 Giants scraped into the play-offs, before blasting past the hot favourites Green Bay and edging out the No.2 seeds of San Francisco. Here was a pinch-coacher, if you will, whose players feasted on pressure and exceeded expectations.
Few know this better than his opposite number this Sunday, Bill Belichick. Coughlin and Belichick go back to 1988 and their days as assistant coaches for the Giants under the great Bill Parcells. Their combined stint culminated in 1999 Super Bowl victory and effectively foreshadowed their futures.
Small wonder then that the pair have enormous respect for one another. Belichick's path has been the easier of the two (as evidenced by five Super Bowls with the Pats, three victories and three Coach of The Year awards) but he is the first to praise Coughlin.
"Our time together was very exceptional," explained Belichick.
"He knows my moves better than most."
That line was eloquently articulated when the Coughlin's Giants shocked his Patriots in the 2007 Super Bowl and again at fortress Foxboro this season. As befits a future hall-of-famer, Belichick has of course had his successes over his old colleague, but those recent high-profile failures must have been hard to swallow. Banal statistics suggest there is no comparison between the two (silverware aside, Belichick holds a 65% win-percentage to Coughlin's 55%) but Belichick knows he's the man most likely to foil him on the big occasions.
Speaking of big occasions, it's the 100th year since that pesky iceberg struck down The Titanic.
Towering, impressive, supposedly unsinkable: read Belichick. Jagged, ice-cold in temperament, supposedly irrelevant: read Coughlin.
And if you want to read more, you can do a lot worse than Thomas Hardy: "As the smart ship grew in stature, grace, and hue; In shadowy silent distance grew the Iceberg too... They were bent by paths coincident; to become twin halves of one august event."
Events don't come more august than the Super Bowl. And while my mind is screaming New England, Coughlin could yet repeat history and return to break Belichick's heart. Not to mention my handicap bet.
There's history between these two, says Andy Richmond, but while everyone is looking at Super Bowl XLII the most relevant match-up to be looking at came in week nine of this season......
Romilly Evans argues that Tom Brady must win this Super Bowl if he is to ever be mentioned alongside his idol, Joe Montana...
Fourteen of the last 34 Super Bowls have been played indoors and that simple dynamic can make a big difference on how a game pans out. Richard O'Hagan explains all...
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Simon Rowlands: Riches galore on offer on Super Saturday
Tipping / Simon Rowlands / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Uncle Mo will look to get back to winning ways at Belmont on Saturday
"Uncle Mo (125) goes in the Kelso Handicap on the Belmont Saturday undercard."
Timeform's head of US development Simon Rowlands looks at the action on Super Saturday and gives you his recommendations for the $500k Guaranteed All-Graded Stakes Pick 4 at Belmont...
European racing fans will be in clover at the weekend, when Longchamp's Arc Day card features seven Group 1s, but their cousins on the other side of the Atlantic are hardly losing out by comparison.
'Super Saturday' involves five Grade 1s at Belmont and four Grade 1s at Santa Anita, with another Grade 1 at the latter course on Sunday for good measure.
Picking a highlight is all but impossible, but try: Cape Blanco (Timeform rating of 124) in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont; Stacelita (121) in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont; top sprinter Trappe Shot (128) in the Vosburgh Invitational at Belmont; or top fillies/mares Blind Luck (122), Ask The Moon (119) and Zazu (119) in the Lady's Secret at Santa Anita.
If you fancy slumming it in a "mere" Grade 2, Uncle Mo (125) goes in the Kelso Handicap on the Belmont Saturday undercard.
There are plenty of good horses and great racing in the offing, then, as well as likely pointers for the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs on November 4 and 5.
If you want to follow the action from Belmont on Saturday you can do so on Timeform Radio. And if you want to get involved there is the option of having a crack at the $500,000 Guaranteed All-Graded Stakes Pick 4 at the track, bets for which can be placed through the Tote option on Betfair.
The Pick 4 starts with race seven, the six-furlong Vosburgh, due off at 20:57 British Summer Time, a race weakened by the late defection of Big Drama (please note that this blog and the Pick4 selections have been updated to take into account Big Drama's withdrawal).
Trappe Shot has come to sprinting late, having previously raced at beyond a mile, and there is still a suspicion that an extra furlong would not go amiss. In the circumstances it seems worth considering also putting in the three-year-old outsider Justin Phillip (rated 119), whose less aggressive run style could just pay off.
Next is the Kelso Handicap over a mile (21:33 BST). With only five declared runners, the temptation is to go "all in" on a resurgent Uncle Mo. His nose defeat by the classy Caleb's Posse at Saratoga last time came after a near-five-month absence and is better form than his rivals here can boast. The best of those rivals is Jackson Bend (rated 123), winner of the Grade 1 Forego Stakes last time.
The Beldame Invitational (22:06 BST) is dominated by crack older filly Havre de Grace (rated 124), who should win comfortably at her best but will be very short. The three-year-old Royal Delta (rated 120) is her main rival but it could be worth throwing in Life At Ten (rated 115), freshened after a 10-week break, instead.
The 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (22:46 BST) lies between Flat Out and Stay Thirsty on form. They are both rated 122 by Timeform, but weight-for-age tips the balance in the favour of the older Flat Out.
Stay Thirsty's win in the Travers Stakes last time seems to have been over-rated by the public, who briefly made the colt favourite for the Breeders' Cup Classic after it. I intend constructing two bets, one with him in and one with him out. Rodman (rated 116) looks the best outsider stepping up in trip.
Recommended bets:
Leg 1: 7/8
Leg 2: 3
Leg 3: 1/5
Leg 4: 1/3/4
2 x 1 x 2 x 3 = 12 bets
Plus as above with 4 omitted from leg 4 = 8 bets
Total 20 bets at $2 each
Click here to bet directly into the US Tote Pools on Betfair.
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