Against All Odds: Johnson to sink on debut against Pools

"Prior to defeats at Doncaster and Coventry, Jeff Stelling’s favourite club hadn’t lost in five on the road, including a victory at Sheffield United."

Lay Oldham v Hartlepool @ 1.9620/21 

Oldham are odds-on for their huge relegation six pointer with Hartlepool in League One tonight but with four defeats in a row in all competitions, Paul Robinson feels they have to be taken on.

Despite reaching the last 16 of the FA Cup, including a victory over Liverpool, Oldham are battling the drop in League One, two points adrift of safety. They do have a couple of games in hand over their rivals but given their form you wouldn't be confident of them hauling themselves out of the relegation zone. 

Lee Johnson was appointed as their new permanent manager on Monday making him the youngest manager in the football league. This is his first ever managerial role and I'm not sure it was the right way for Oldham to go as I would have thought they'd need an experienced man to get them out of trouble and then maybe appoint a younger guy in the summer.

He certainly has a huge job on his hands as the Latics have lost their last three in the league without scoring a goal - two of which were at home. In fact, Oldham have won just five of 18 at Boundary Park this term, drawing three and losing 10. 

Hartlepool were written off by many earlier in the campaign as they won just one of their first 23 games. John Hughes took over the managerial reigns towards the end of 2012 and while it took him a little time to turn things around, he's now started to get a tune out of his players and they've lost only four of their last 15 - winning six of them.

Admittedly the Monkey Hangers have picked up just two points from a possible 12 in March, but three of those games were against teams in the top eight. Prior to defeats at Doncaster and Coventry, Jeff Stelling's favourite club hadn't lost in five on the road, including a victory at Sheffield United.

One place and four points separate these two sides but you feel that it's a must win for Hartlepool given that they have played two extra games. While three points would be a huge boost to Oldham, a draw wouldn't be the end of the world. Their current form just doesn't warrant their odds of 1.9620/21, no matter the opposition, and that's why I have to make Oldham my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Oldham v Hartlepool @ 1.9620/21 

Wagered: 77 pts
Returned: 73.70 pts
P/L – 3.30 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Super Bowl XLVII: Debut boys Flacco and Kaepernick set for big-scoring showdown

"Neither is likely to have the bad day at the office that Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders had in Super Bowl XXXVII, when he was intercepted for a record five times during the game, three of which were returned for touchdowns."

For the first time in five years the Super Bowl will feature two starting quarterbacks who have never played in the game before. What might this mean for your bets? Richard O'Hagan investigates.

One of the more unusual aspects of Sunday's Super Bowl is that neither starting quarterback has played in the game before. For Baltimore's Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick of San Francisco this is the first time that they have been exposed to the hype and worldwide media scrutiny that the final game of the NFL season always attracts.

It is the first time in five years that the game has seen both teams' quarterback making their debut, and only the 16th time overall that it has happened. That figure, of course, includes the very first Super Bowl of all, but to emphasise how unusual it is, it doesn't include the second game, where Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers made his second straight appearance.

Looking back at the performances of those debutant quarterbacks gives us a fair idea of how Flacco and Kaepernick might perform in the big game. For example, neither is likely to have the bad day at the office that Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders had in Super Bowl XXXVII, when he was intercepted for a record five times during the game, three of which were returned for touchdowns. Only four other debutant quarterbacks have ever thrown even one 'pick six' in a game. Similarly, neither is likely to emulate the performance of New England's Tony Eason in Super Bowl XX - also held in the Louisiana Superdome - who failed to complete a single pass and who was hauled out of the game before half time.

Probably the closest debutant to Kaepernick was Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger back in Super Bowl XL. Both are big men with strong arms and although Kaepernick is much more mobile, Big Ben still managed to join the very small number of debutant quarterbacks (five of them in fact) who have rushed for a touchdown. On the other hand, though, Roethlisberger only completed 9 of 21 pass attempts in that game and had two interceptions, whilst the only touchdown thrown by the Steelers was by wide receiver Antwan Randle El. That suggests that although the favourite first scoring play is a San Francisco touchdown, a Baltimore touchdown at 4.1n/a is the better bet.

Finding a comparator for Flacco is harder, because his inconsistent play makes him hard to rank among the very best. With that in mind, it might pay to consider the efforts of another unpredictable quarterback, Eli Manning.

Playing in Super Bowl XLII Manning completed 19 of 34 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. More importantly, he ended up on the winning side and stopped New England recording an unbeaten season in the process. Baltimore have, arguably, a weaker receiving corps than the Giants did on that day, but indoors in the Superdome it is easy to see Flacco putting up similar numbers and gaining an identical result. A Baltimore win can be backed at 2.68/5.

One area where having two debutants running the offenses does seem to make a difference is in the total number of points scored. If we take the last six occasions that this has occurred - which takes us back to Super Bowl XXXI and Brett Favre's first game, coincidentally also in the Superdome - then the average number of points scored in those games is 44.83. In all Super Bowls over that period the average number of points is 49.69, a difference of almost five points. However, the average number of points scored in games in the Super Dome recently has been 59.44 in 2011 and 56.50 this season. That makes the 2.186/5 on offer for a score of more than 48.5 points in this game still look very attractive.

Recommended Bet
Back a score of more than 48.5 points in the Super Bowl at odds of 2.186/5

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Winning debut for new tipster?

Timeform Radio Tip / Editor / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Valrene separate herself from the pack with a win?

"Valrene has been sent off at massive odds in all four of her starts, and is getting progressively bigger 66/1, 100/1, 100/1 and 250/1. She will be much shorter today in a really poor race and has been solid in early trading on Betfair."

New Timeform Radio signing John O'Connell makes the picks today - will it be a winning debut? We'll find out after the 15:45 at Newton Abbot

It's a day of few firm betting propositions but the one that stands out for me is Valrene in the 15:45 at Newton Abbot.

She gets a good Timeform Rating (122) in the context of the race and with a question mark, or more appropriately a squiggle, against the top-rated Accordingtoeileen, who has something to prove after pulling up at Uttoxeter last time out, the road could be left clear for the six-year-old Valrene to gain a first success.

She has been sent off at massive odds in all four of her starts, and is getting progressively bigger 66/1, 100/1, 100/1 and 250/1. She will be much shorter today in a really poor race and has been solid in early trading on Betfair.

In fact, she belied her 250/1 starting price at Huntingdon last time with a creditable third to Sonoran Sands and the step-up in trip here is likely to be more in her favour. She only got third close home at Huntingdon and was staying on to good effect in that 2m 100y contest.

Recommended Bet
Back Valrene @ [2.72] in the 15:45 at Newton Abbot

David Cleary looks at Uttoxeter's Midlands Grand National card for today's best bets...

It's the biggest day of the jumps racing calendar as the Cheltenham Festival reaches its climax on Friday afternoon. Can Rory land his Yankee?...

It's day three of the Festival and Rory Delargy is continuing his bid to land a lucrative, four leg Betfair multiple......

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Black Caviar News: Star mare to prepare at HQ prior to British debut

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Thee 135-rated Black Caviar

"The trainer has that Black Caviar is to have one final run on home soil (in April)..."

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot...

Trainer Peter Moody's superstar, whose Timeform rating of 135 leaves her second only to Frankel in the list of world's top performers, is enjoying a break at present having run twice within a week when last seen.

The latest of her 19 wins came in the Group 1 Coolmore Lightning Stakes on February 18, while one more victory would see her pass Zenyatta's record set in 2010.

The trainer has that Black Caviar is to have one final run on home soil (in April) before being prepared for her British assignment, although such plans are far from set in stone.

Jeff O'Connor, racing manager to owner's G J Wilkie, Mrs K J Wilkie et al, has stated that plans will be finalised by this time next week, with races in Adelaide and Brisbane just some of the options open.

Black Caviar's first run in the UK is schedule to be on June 23 and connections have said how she will be flying across around the last week of May or first week of June.

A Betfair market remains open on whether Black Caviar can go undefeated throughout the 2011/12 season.

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

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Fairyhouse Result: Minsk only second on hurdling debut

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Minsk could only finish second at Fairyhouse.

Minsk could only manage to finish second on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse...

The Dessie Hughes-trained four-year-old had been heading the market for the Triumph Hurdle for some time, having easily won the Irish Cesarewitch last year, but could only get within a neck of eventual winner Burrenbridge Lad. Bat Masterson finished close-up in third, having previously won at Naas.

Minsk is now available to back at [20.0] for the Triumph, with Kempton winner Baby Mix becoming the new market leader at [7.4].

The Tom George-trained four-year-old made a most impressive British debut, beating Hinterland at Cheltenham, before disappointing back at that track last month.

However, Baby Mix ran out a fairly ready winner of Kempton's Adonis Hurdle, beating Sadler's Risk and Dark and Dangerous with the Paul Nicholls-trained Dildar looking well-held when unseating Ruby Walsh at the final flight.

Sadler's Risk can be backed at [10.5] for the Triumph, whilst Dildar has drifted to [46.0].

Grandouet will not run in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, trainer Nicky Henderson has confirmed......

Champion Hurdle contender Grandouet could still make the Cheltenham Festival after undergoing a successful operation on Tuesday night......

As David Pipe opened his yard to the racing media this week, Timeform hone-in on his thoughts on the stable's main Cheltenham Festival contenders as well as a pair that may go on to contest the Grand National......

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Fairyhouse Result: Minsk only second on hurdling debut

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 25 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Minsk could only finish second at Fairyhouse.

Minsk could only manage to finish second on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse...

The Dessie Hughes-trained four-year-old had been heading the market for the Triumph Hurdle for some time, having easily won the Irish Cesarewitch last year, but could only get within a neck of eventual winner Burrenbridge Lad. Bat Masterson finished close-up in third, having previously won at Naas.

Minsk is now available to back at [20.0] for the Triumph, with Kempton winner Baby Mix becoming the new market leader at [7.4].

The Tom George-trained four-year-old made a most impressive British debut, beating Hinterland at Cheltenham, before disappointing back at that track last month.

However, Baby Mix ran out a fairly ready winner of Kempton's Adonis Hurdle, beating Sadler's Risk and Dark and Dangerous with the Paul Nicholls-trained Dildar looking well-held when unseating Ruby Walsh at the final flight.

Sadler's Risk can be backed at [10.5] for the Triumph, whilst Dildar has drifted to [46.0].

Grandouet will not run in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, trainer Nicky Henderson has confirmed......

Champion Hurdle contender Grandouet could still make the Cheltenham Festival after undergoing a successful operation on Tuesday night......

As David Pipe opened his yard to the racing media this week, Timeform hone-in on his thoughts on the stable's main Cheltenham Festival contenders as well as a pair that may go on to contest the Grand National......

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Epic Poker League Set to Debut

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

While your faithful Betfair poker bloggers are traveling the world covering poker tournaments -- Matthew Pitt over at EPT Tallinn in Estonia and yours truly at LAPT Punta del Este in Uruguay -- much of the poker world's attention over the next few days will be upon the highly anticipated debut of the Epic Poker League at the Palms Casino in Las Vegas. Today a "Pro/Am" event kicks off the league's first tournament series, while later will come a couple of other tournaments including the $20,000 buy-in Main Event that begins Tuesday, August 9th.

Calling a preliminary a "Pro/Am" in a way recalls the schedule one frequently finds at professional golf tourneys wherein pros and amateurs get together for an early round -- kind of a mini-tournament before the main event that occasionally features significant prize money.

The Epic Poker League Pro/Am that begins later today is a $1,500 buy-in event that will partially serve as a satellite into the Main Event, with the top nine finishers all earning ME seats. If the prize pool exceeds $180,000, the remaining money will be distributed among the other top finishers.

Expect a number of top pros and familiar faces to show up for today's Pro/Am. In fact, many players who have already qualified for entry into the Main Event according to the league's criteria will likely be playing in the Pro/Am as well in the hopes of landing an ME seat for a cheaper price. Epic Poker League members who have already indicated they'll be playing in the Pro/Am include Tom Dwan, Antonio Esfandiari, Ben Lamb, Mike Matusow, Michael Mizrachi, Mike Sexton, and Gavin Smith.

On Sunday, August 7th there will be a charity event, a $240 buy-in tournament (with $100 rebuys and an add-on) hosted by Brad Garrett of "Everyone Loves Raymond" fame. While the entire prize pool will be going to Operation USA, a relief organization currently helping victims of the tornado that tore through Joplin, Missouri back in May, additional prizes are being donated by the online company Zappos and others, including seats to future Pro/Ams and a $2,500 first prize.

Of course, it's the Main Event that most will be focusing upon come next Tuesday, with many curious to see how many of the 252 players who have qualified to play in the Epic Poker League actually come out to participate in the event. For a discussion of the criteria, see this article from early May from when the original list of qualifiers was announced. At the time 218 players had won enough on the tourney circuit to become league members; since then, 34 more have made it through.

That $20,000 entry fee is certainly a higher-than-usual price tag for tour events. And, of course, the field is guaranteed to be especially tough, which some believe might also further discourage some from participating. However, the league has come up with some significant incentives for players to participate.

Just 2% of the entry fees will be taken out for dealers and staff, and a handsome $400,000 will be added to the prize pool. Also, the highly regarded Matt Savage (interviewed here) is serving as the tournament director for the Epic League Poker events, and the tournament will be employing a structure developed by Savage. Players will start the six-handed no-limit hold'em event with super deep stacks (50,000 chips or 250 big blinds) and play 90-minute levels, so there is sure to be a lot of play.

Another possible incentive for some players will be the fact that if they do well in the tournament they may potentially score some television time in addition to the cash prizes. The league has struck a television deal whereby 20 hours' worth of coverage of Epic Poker League events will air on CBS (a major, non-cable network) and Velocity (a less well-known cable channel).

It's hard to say, really, how much of an incentive for players the television exposure might be, both because of the relative obscurity of Velocity and the uncertain situation for player sponsorships post-Black Friday. However, the virtual shutdown of the online game in the U.S. may also indirectly help the Epic Poker League. With the major sites no longer operating in America -- and thus the entire notion of the "sponsored pro" having been currently thrown into question -- there may well be a place in the poker landscape for a sports-like "professional poker league" that wasn't really there before.

More information about the Epic Poker League -- including details about all of the events' schedules and structures, player profiles, videos, news, and more -- can be found on its recently launched website.

By the way, if you hunt around over there on the Epic site long enough you'll find a number of columnists including your humble scribbler, there with a column called "Community Cards" that focuses on poker in popular culture. (Here is the first entry, on poker and late night television.) My plan for the column is to address both contemporary stories/issues as well as to delve into the history of poker now and then.

It is difficult to predict at present how the Epic Poker League will do or what its reception will be. In any event, it should prove intriguing no matter what happens, and I think once that Main Event plays down to its last few tables interest will certainly pick up within the poker community.

I know it will be grabbing the attention of both Matthew and myself -- once we make it back to our homes from all of our globetrotting, that is!

One hundred and ninety players entered the Olympic Casino inside the luxurious Swissotel in the centre of Tallinn, Estonia and exchanged €4,250 for 30,000 tournament chips. By the end of seven one-hour long levels 60 of them had busted out...

With the World Series of Poker effectively over until November, the eyes of the poker world have turned to Estonia for their fix of first class tournament poker. The European Poker Tour is currently in the Estonian capital city of...

"Always with a pen in my pocket and an eye on the outrageous." That's how poker player, writer, and coach Tommy Angelo refers to himself in his newest offering, A Rubber Band Story and other Poker Tales. The book follows...

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Follow The Money: Dream debut?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Have the FTM team identified some winning bets?

"Delaney’s Dream has been well supported in 15:50. He has been matched at [3.75] but now trades at [3.1]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Stratford and Musselburgh...

We start with Stratford where the drift on Bathwick Quest in the 14:40 has been noted in a day that has seen very little drift markedly. Initially available at [3.6] David Pipe's mare now trades at [4.1], which although not a massive drift suggests that there isn't a great deal of confidence behind her. She is an out and out front runner so in theory the small field and sharp track will suit however in Kack Handed there is another proven front runner and they may ruin each other's chances, setting it up for a closer. The majority of her form is on softer ground also so it may well pay to go against her.

Up at Musselburgh, Delaney's Dream has been well supported in 15:50. He has been matched at [3.75] but now trades at [3.1] as this progressive individual makes his handicap debut. Having started his career over seven furlongs in a claimer, where he was a big eyecatcher, he was then dropped down to six furlongs in maiden company where he showed he had too much stamina for the trip. On his final start he was staying on well to get his head in front of some useful types, notably the second and third, who are now rated higher than him. This trip should see improvement and with the ground suiting and his trainer going very well there is plenty to see why punters are keen to jump aboard.

Also at Musselburgh, the money is noted for Mark Johnston's Guest Book in the 16:20 who is trading at [3.35] from a high of [4.04]. This lightly raced four-year-old showed a fair bit when handicapping last year, notably running a blinder at Beverley from a bad draw and on his final start just being touched off by the highly progressive Pintura. Today's race clearly represents a drop in class for him and his supporters seem to be fairly bullish.

Recommended Bets

Lay Bathwick Quest @ [4.1] Stratford 14:40
Back Delaney's Dream @ [3.1] Musselburgh 15:50
Back Guest Book @ [3.35] Musselburgh 16:20

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Leicester and Ludlow respectively....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Lingfield, Catterick and Hereford....

THe FTM boys tell us which two are worth backing which one should be laid....

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Follow The Money: Debut Glory?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow The Money are betting on two horses at Lingfield this afternoon

"Fairynuff has been the subject of good support, trading at [6.2] from an opening [12.0]."

Today's follow the money market movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Musselburgh...

In the 14.00 at Lingfield there's been a big move for the first time out York Glory, having been backed from [12.0] into [3.65]. Kevin Ryan knows how to get a horse to win first time out and also has a good course record with his juveniles. This three-year-old has a decent US pedigree so should handle the Polytrack. The colt is the only unraced horse in the field, so if ready could improve past the rest of the field.

Fairynuff has been the subject of good support in the 14:20 at Musselburgh, trading at [6.2] from an opening [12.0]. Kate Walton knows how to get the best out of her horses and this lightly raced seven-year-old steps up from two to three miles today. If the horse improves for the step up in trip today he could be very hard to catch.

Back at Lingfield we head for the maiden at 16:00. The race has seen a negative move for Mick Channons Momkinzain, having drifted from [1.9] out to the current [2.82]. The four-year-old ran a promising race on debut at Newbury when third to Tactician but has not improved in three subsequent runs. Another reason for the negative move might also be the fact that the Mick Channon stable is going through a quiet patch at present.

Recommended bets:

Back York Glory @ [3.65 ] Lingfield 14.00
Back Fairynuff @ [6.2] Musselburgh 14.20
Lay Momkinzain @ [2.82] Lingfield 16.00

Today's follow the money market movers come from the meetings at Lingfield and Musselburgh......

Today's Follow The Money market movers come from the meetings at Folkestone, Newcastle and Southwell....

Today's market movers spring from the cards at Plumpton and Catterick......

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