Against All Odds: Bluebirds and Black Cats to go wild

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Premier League: Black Cats part company with Martin O'Neill

"Sunderland's next game is away to Chelsea on April 7 with the club available to back at 2.767/4 in the Relegaion market having been matched at a high of 75.074/1 earlier in the season."

After a home loss to Manchester United earlier today Sunderland have announced that they have parted company with manager Martin O'Neill. Mike Norman has the details...

Sunderland have this evening announced that they have "parted company" with manager Martin O'Neill.

The relegation-threatened Black Cats are in dire form in the Premier League after failing to win any of their previous eight games, taking just three points in the process.

Today's defeat to champions-elect Manchester United leaves the Wearside club just one point above the relegation zone with just seven games remaining, four of them away from home including a trip to arch north-east rivals and fellow strugglers Newcastle.

O'Neill took over from Steve Bruce at Sunderland in December 2011 and immediately became a huge success with the Stadium of Light faithful, winning seven of his opening 10 fixtures to steer the Black Cats away from the drop zone.

But despite some high profile signings this season, including England midfielder Adam Johnson and Scotland striker Steven Fletcher, Sunderland struggled for goals and could never put a consistent run of good form together.

O'Neill remained very positive after today's defeat insisting that his glass was "three-quarters full" in reference to his confidence in keeping Sunderland in the Premier League, before going on to say, "There's a real determination in the dressing room. The players are obviously disappointed, but they can take a lot from the second half."

Sunderland's next game is away to Chelsea on April 7 with the club available to back at 2.767/4 in the Relegaion market having been matched at a high of 75.074/1 earlier in the season.

Betfair have introduced a Next Sunderland Manager market with former Swindon boss Paolo Di Canio and experienced Premier League manager Mark Hughes amongst the early favourites.

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Black Caviar: Mare to make Melbourne farewell

Champion mare Black Caviar will attempt to extend her unbeaten sequence to 24 wins in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night...

Champion mare Black Caviar will attempt to extend her unbeaten sequence to 24 wins in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night...

The race is expected to be the mare's final start in Melbourne and, as usual, she is likely to start long odds-on to prevail.

The Peter Moody-trained Black Caviar showed that she retained all of her old sparkle when slamming her Flemington rivals on her return from an eight-month absence, breaking the track record in the race named in her honour, and it would rank as a major surprise were she to taste defeat on Friday, facing only six rivals.

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Verdicts for racing in Australia and New Zealand at timeform.com/free/

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Black Friday Defendant Chad Elie Pleads Guilty

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

By pleading guilty, Elie avoids standing trial in April. His co-defendant, John Campos, has yet to enter a similar plea agreement.

Elie follows the path taken by other payment processors targeted by the Black Friday indictment who have pleaded guilty to various charges and/or entered plea agreements, including Ira Rubin, Bradley Franzen, and Ryan Lang, as well as that of Absolute Poker co-founder Brent Buckley.

Just days after the news that former payment processor turned "supergrass" Daniel Tzvetkoff was to appear as a witness in the "Black Friday" trial of Chad Elie and John Campos, Elie avoided trial by entering a guilty plea to one of the conspiracy counts against him in a Manhattan courtroom on Monday. The plea agreement means Elie will face six months to a year in prison and the forfeiture of $500,000. His sentencing will come in early October.

The 32-year-old payment processor was one of 11 individuals named in the original Black Friday indictment unsealed on April 15, 2011. Originally Elie had been charged with nine different counts including violating the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, conspiracy to violate the UIGEA, conspiracy to engage in money laundering, operating an illegal gambling business, and conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud.

Ultimately Elie pleaded guilty to a single count of conspiracy to commit bank fraud, with the terms of his plea agreement with the U.S. Attorney's Office ensuring the latter will ask for a sentence of no more than one year. Meanwhile, Elie is free on a $250,000 bond as he awaits his October 3rd sentencing.

As reported by several outlets, Elie stated in court on Monday "I knew that my conduct was wrong" as he entered his guilty plea, explaining that he opened bank accounts in order to make transactions with online poker sites while being unclear with the banks regarding the actual purposes for the accounts.

Elie follows the path taken by other payment processors targeted by the Black Friday indictment who have pleaded guilty to various charges and/or entered plea agreements, including Ira Rubin, Bradley Franzen, and Ryan Lang, as well as that of Absolute Poker co-founder Brent Buckley.

No word as yet whether Elie's co-defendant, John Campos, formerly part-owner and Vice Chairman of the Board at the now-closed SunFirst Bank in St. George, Utah that handled allegedly unlawful online gambling transactions, will enter a similar agreement and avoid trial. As was the case with Elie, Campos has been charged with multiple counts, and if found guilty of them all could face up to 35 years in prison.

The trial is scheduled to begin April 9th, with Daniel Tzvetkoff set to appear as a key prosecution witness in the case. It was reported last week that Tzvetkoff -- who had dealings with all three of the targeted online poker sites (PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker, and Absolute Poker/UltimateBet) had turned over more than 90,000 documents to prosecutors.

Most believe Tzvetkoff's cooperation with prosecutors -- turning "supergrass" or informant -- is part of his own effort to negotiate a lessening of punishment after being charged himself with violating the UIGEA, bank fraud, and money laundering charges.

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Black Caviar News: Star mare to prepare at HQ prior to British debut

News / Timeform / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Thee 135-rated Black Caviar

"The trainer has that Black Caviar is to have one final run on home soil (in April)..."

The world's best sprinter Black Caviar looks likely to spend a month in the headquarters of British racing, Newmarket, before her much-anticipated UK debut in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot...

Trainer Peter Moody's superstar, whose Timeform rating of 135 leaves her second only to Frankel in the list of world's top performers, is enjoying a break at present having run twice within a week when last seen.

The latest of her 19 wins came in the Group 1 Coolmore Lightning Stakes on February 18, while one more victory would see her pass Zenyatta's record set in 2010.

The trainer has that Black Caviar is to have one final run on home soil (in April) before being prepared for her British assignment, although such plans are far from set in stone.

Jeff O'Connor, racing manager to owner's G J Wilkie, Mrs K J Wilkie et al, has stated that plans will be finalised by this time next week, with races in Adelaide and Brisbane just some of the options open.

Black Caviar's first run in the UK is schedule to be on June 23 and connections have said how she will be flying across around the last week of May or first week of June.

A Betfair market remains open on whether Black Caviar can go undefeated throughout the 2011/12 season.

Camelot heads 143 colts remaining in the Investec Derby following the first forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom on June 2....

Godolphin has 22 declared runners, including one reserve, for Super Saturday at Meydan on March 10 - the most valuable raceday in the UAE outside of Dubai World Cup night......

Invictus has emerged as a doubtful runner in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham......

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Lee Dixon: Black Cats defeat in the bag

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Demba Ba showed against Manchester United that he's often at his best in the biggest matches

"But I’m edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run."

Sunderland have improved massively under Martin O'Neill but this Newcastle side have been far more consistent over the course of the season and with a little help from Demba Ba, should make home advantage count, says Lee Dixon.

Match Odds

I talked to Alan Pardew on Match of the Day 2 last week and he had an interesting take on his side's 2-2 draw with Wolves. Pards said that the solitary point they picked up after 90 minutes might get Newcastle where they want to be at the end of the season - a glass-half-full guy if ever there was one!

Pardew gave his players the Monday off following the game and that adult approach could be just what the team needs after a disappointing result.

In fierce local rivals Sunderland, they are playing a side that suffered a painful weekend themselves, coming unstuck at West Brom in dramatic fashion, after a good run.
Regardless of that 4-0 defeat, Martin O'Neill has done a fantastic job since taking the helm at the Stadium of Light. His team are in a very decent position and could even push on for a European spot. In a strange way, I suspect that Pardew would have preferred to face the Black Cats when they were on the crest of a wave, as Martin O'Neill will have his players fully fired up for this one.

But I'm edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run. The Opta stats back up the fact the hosts have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent times: Newcastle have won eight, drawn five and lost just one of the last 14 Premier League games against Sunderland.

At [2.22] I'm prepared to back the Toon for home win number eight of the season.

To Score

Demba Ba has had a fantastic season upfront for Newcastle and he's been joined in attack by fellow countryman Papiss Cisse, who has been most impressive in the four games since his arrival. Full of effort and energy, Cisse has fully deserved his two Premier League goals with his all-action displays.

However, he is a slight doubt for the match and I see Ba getting back amongst the goals himself. Against Manchester United he proved to us that he enjoys the big games and I fancy the Senegalese to score his 17th goal of the season on Sunday. As Opta say, Ba has not gone three league starts without a goal since joining Newcastle and I think he will get on the scoresheet again.

Booking Odds

This is generally a card-heavy affair with sendings off in the two of the last three, and I can't resist a dabble on nine points and above in the booking odds market
.
Recommended Bets

2pts Back Newcastle to win @ [2.22]
2pts Back Demba Ba to score @ [3.0]
2pts Back 9pts and above in Booking Odds @ [1.7]

Michael Cox says:

I'm expecting plenty of cards in this derby - there were six yellows and one red in the previous meeting between the two sides, and there could have been many more.

There are a couple of obvious players to back to pick up a card - Lee Cattermole is one, but Cheick Tiote strikes me as a walking yellow card here. He's picked up five yellows from 15 Premier League games this season, and was in good booking form at the African Cup of Nations, with three from his four games. Against Wolves last week he gave the ball away too much then had to stop counter-attacks, and I think he might be forced to break up Sunderland moves with fouls. So I'll back him to be shown a card at anything around [3.0].

It's difficult to predict the starting line-ups for this game, but that means a potentially exciting tactical battle, says Michael Cox...

Chelsea travel to the Hawthorns, the increasingly impressive Swansea are at Roberto Martinez's Wigan and Stoke play hosts to a Norwich side who can't stop scoring on the road. Let's see what Feizal Rahman and his Opta stats make of...

Table-toppers Manchester City are at home to Bolton, Aston Villa travel to relegation-threatened Blackburn and Everton visit out-of-form QPR. But what do Opta say ahead of the games?...

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Global Racing Podcast: Frankel and Black Caviar to meet?

News / Timeform / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The mighty Black Caviar

With a big weekend of action 'Down Under', Timeform Radio brings you another international racing preview...

This week Paul Jacobs is joined by Timeform's Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch and Gary Crispe from Timeform Australia to discuss a possible meeting of the mighty Frankel and Black Caviar this summer.

Gary also previews this weekend's Autumn Carnival action as "The Cav" looks to make it 19 wins out of 19 in the Group 1 Lightening Stakes, in which she will be dropping back to 1000m and taking on old rival Hay List.

Click here to listen to this week's Global Racing Podcast.

Last week the world's highest Timeform rated sprinter Black Caviar (135+) put to rest any doubts about her handling 1400m with an emphatic victory in the G1 C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield however on Saturday she faces a new challenge....

Long Run's connections declared themselves thoroughly satisfied after the Cheltenham Gold Cup hero continued his Festival preparations with a workmanlike victory at Newbury....

Champion Hurdle hopeful Zarkandar landed Newbury's Betfair Hurdle on Friday, whilst Long Run got back to winning ways and Sprinter Sacre enhanced his already lofty reputation......

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Lightning Stakes Preview: New challenge awaits Black Caviar

News / Timeform / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar fans will be out in force

"A win in the Lightning Stakes will clinch the Australian record of consecutive victories for Black Caviar in her own right..."

Last week the world's highest Timeform rated sprinter Black Caviar (135+) put to rest any doubts about her handling 1400m with an emphatic victory in the G1 C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield however on Saturday she faces a new challenge.

In the space of seven days she is dropping back 400m in distance from the Orr Stakes to tackle the G1 Lightning Stakes (off 05:10 GMT) down the straight 1000m at Flemington, a race she won fresh up last year.

The afterthought by trainer Peter Moody and connections to back Black Caviar up a week later in the G 1 Lightning Stakes rather than have a Saturday morning track gallop ahead of the G1 Futurity Stakes again over 1400m next Saturday has taken rival trainers by surprise.

Black Caviar maintained her unbeaten run in the Orr Stakes last Saturday with an effortless display over G1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed and multiple G 1 winner and Australian Cup placed Playing God recording her 18th victory and equalling the great Ajax's winning sequence achieved back in the late 1930's, but today she faces a totally different assignment.

Opposed to her are old "sparring partner" Hay List, up and coming three-year-old sprinter Foxwedge who pushed Sepoy to a head down the Flemington straight in the Spring, G1 Goodwood Handicap winner Lone Rock as well as other accomplished specialist sprinters all aimed at producing their best first up over the Flemington 1000m.

The task of dropping back 400m in the space of a week and tackling such a fine group of speedsters raises concerns as to whether she will have sufficient speed in her legs especially after being trained specifically for two 1400m races, which was to be her original race programme.

Call the decision arrogant if you dare but obviously Moody and the connections are clearly eager to bag the 20 consecutive wins she needs to surpass the great Zenyatta whose unbeaten run was abruptly terminated when unluckily defeated by Blame at her 20th start in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic.

A win in the Lightning Stakes will clinch the Australian record of consecutive victories for Black Caviar in her own right and set a record that will stand for many a year, however she will not have history on her side.

The G1 Lightning Stakes was first run in 1955 and the most relevant past occurrence to what lies ahead for Black Caviar was the attempt by the smart three-year-old sprinter Star Of Heaven trained by Angus Armanasco and owned by Stanley Wootton.

In 1965 Star Of Heaven was beaten half a head in the Orr Stakes over 1400m behind Future before dropping back to the 1000m of the Lightning Stakes where he was again beaten a half head this time by in form classy sprinter Marmion. However the gap between the races was 14 days not seven as it is today.

To further demonstrate the task that lies ahead for Black Caviar, a search of Australian race results for the last 10 years reveals that no horse at Listed or group level in Australia has attempted such a drop back in distance within seven days.

Further on Australian metropolitan racetracks in non black type races, just one horse from 25 that attempted it has been successful and that was back in 2001.

On country and provincial racetracks the record is 33 winners from 350 horses to have attempted the feat.

It is an infinitely easier task for horses to go from the Lightning Stakes to the 1400m of the Futurity Stakes a fortnight later with Todman (1960), Schillaci (1993) and Testa Rossa (2000) executing that double.

While the ease of her Orr Stakes win last start surprised many, she is likely to be asked to do more on Saturday. Not only does the drop back in distance at the elite level within a week pose a new challenge for the wonder mare but the opposition she faces have all been set for the 1000m scamper, the most notable being classy sprinter Hay List.

Hay List (Timeform rated 128) is the only horse in Australia to have seriously tested Black Caviar at G1 level. In four previous match ups he has been runner up three times but this afternoon he is perfectly placed to make Black Caviar raise a sweat.

The last time the pair met was in the BTC Cup (1200m) at Doomben in May of 2011 where he finished two lengths behind Black Caviar after getting what appeared to be a winning break at the 300m mark, only to succumb to her superior acceleration over the concluding stages. Black Caviar and Hay List also met in last year's Lightning Stakes with over three lengths separating the pair on that occasion.

In any other era of Australian racing, Hay List would be acclaimed as one of the best sprinters produced. With a Timeform rating of 128 he compares favourably with past classy sprinters such as Choisir, Scenic Blast, Miss Andretti, Schillaci, Placid Ark and Starspangledbanner to name a few, but Black Caviar has dominated him in the past.

However that may change slightly at Flemington. Hay List, who wear blinkers for the first time, has not raced since their last meeting, the hulking sprinter given plenty of rest to overcome niggling injuries that plagued him during his last campaign. Trainer John McNair is very confident racegoers will see a different Hay List, injury free and rearing to go after sparkling track work and an effortless barrier trial win at Randwick last month.

The signs are there he will make a race of it today and the finish could get interesting if some of the speed is taken from Black Caviar's legs after being trained for 1400m assignments.

The chances against her don't stop with Hay List. Emerging three-year-old sprinting talent Foxwedge (Timeform rated 120p) is a horse expected to make his mark this preparation with connections already pencilling in Royal Ascot if all goes to plan.

To be ridden by Nash Rawiller, Foxwedge has raced just nine times for four wins but has continued to develop and mature during his short racing career to date.

This afternoon racegoers will see a vastly different colt to the one that almost caused the boilover of the Spring by nearly defeating Sepoy in the G1 Coolmore Stakes down the Flemington straight 1200m.

That was his highest rating performance to date but I am expecting him to build significantly on that figure this campaign. A strong point in his favour today is the excellent record three-year-olds have in the Lightning Stakes.

Black Caviar's surprise defence of her Lightning Stakes crown is going to be a contest to saviour. Not that on ratings she can be beaten but the dynamics of this race present a different challenge for her but one that all devoted racegoers are expecting her to handle in her usual dominant fashion.

No Recommendation: Black Caviar will be at prohibitive odds.
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Get free form, cards & results for Australian racing at timeform.com/free/

Sprinter Sacre steps out of novice company for the first time in the rescheduled Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury on Friday......

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Black Caviar: World's best sprinter threatens to raise 135 rating

Australia / Gary Crispe / 11 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Black Caviar raise her rating from 135?

"This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts."

The highest Timeform-rated sprinter in the world, the unbeaten Black Caviar, posted a record equalling victory at Caulfield on Saturday, claiming her eighteenth consecutive success on a major Australian racetrack, and now looks set to raise her rating beyond 135...

Black Caviar who continues to monster her opponents into submission with dazzling mid-race sectionals now shares 18 straight victories with Ajax who in the late 1930's achieved the same feat mid career.

Black Caviar now sits equal third with Eclipse and Karayel on the global undefeated racehorse list. Ahead of her lay US galloper Pepper's Pride on 19 wins and Hungarian galloper Kincsem with a staggering unbeaten run of 54.

Even though she was attempting 1400m for the first time, it really made no difference to the manner in which she inflicted defeat on her rivals.

Today's field comprised mainly middle distance gallopers working through to bigger spoils in the Autumn, a fact some have used to downplay the opposition she faced.

However the Orr Stakes is usually a race used for that purpose and many classy middle distance types have often recorded outstanding wins in the race.

For example, if Black Caviar had not contested today's race, 2011 Group 1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed would have beaten dual Group 1 winner Playing God - a result which would have sat very well in the history of the race.

The fact is those two very good in-form gallopers faced a freak galloper and despite running their hearts out were completely outclassed in the last 400m.

The merit of the Black Caviar performance was calculated to be 128+, a figure which sits just under the maximum possible value based on race standardisation but acceptable considering most of field ran to form.

The other factor in the analysis is the manner of the win. Apart from one 200m section from the 400m to the 200m, Black Caviar never really came off the bridle and idled to the line over the final 250m.

It is hard to say just how much Black Caviar had in reserve but under the circumstances an additional two lengths is completely justified for the ease of win.

This makes Black Caviar rate 134+ for her Orr Stakes win, but importantly it sends a clear signal her master Timeform rating of 135 could be threatened in coming starts.

Race time analysis is pretty much meaningless in this case as the early tempo was quite slow. The overall race time was over two seconds outside standard but the sectional times reveal the true story of just how potent Black Caviar was.

She settled beautifully behind that slow pace and from the 1200m to the 600m ran mid 12 second sectionals, but once rider Luke Nolen called on her to quicken from the 600m she once again showed her devastating acceleration that quickly overwhelms her opposition.

Black Caviar quickened to 11.27 seconds (17.75 mps) between the 600m to 400m and then as she nearly always does, went to 10.64 seconds (18.8mps) between the 400m to the 200m quickly putting the race out of the reach of her opponents before idling home in 11.07 seconds (18.06mps).

And the 10.64 seconds 200m sectional time she ran today on a dead racing surface is not even as fast as she can go. For example her fastest 200m sectional was achieved in her 2011 Newmarket win from the 600m to 400m where she went 10.27 seconds (19.47mps).

Her next slowest sectional was in the 2011 Lightning Stakes from the 600m to 400m in 10.34 seconds (19.34mps) and third slowest 10.42 seconds (19.19mps) in the 2011 Schillaci Stakes between the 800m to 600m.

As we can see, Black Caviar's ability to reel off dominant sectionals is the real key to her superior equine ability, and the frightening part is she appears to do it with such ease!

Black Caviar has now won eight Group 1 races which places her second only to the great New Zealand mare Sunline (13 wins) on the modern all time list for mares.

Black Caviar's winning margin of three-and-a-quarter lengths is the second biggest margin in the last 20 Orr Stakes renewals and for the third year in succession Peter Moody and Luke Nolen have combined to win the Orr Stakes with a mare, Typhoon Tracey taking the same race in 2010/2011.

There was talk after the race that Peter Moody was considering a change of future race plans for Black Caviar. Instead of going straight to the G1 Futurity Stakes again over 1400m at Caulfield in a fortnight, Moody is contemplating a drop back to the 1000m of the Group 1 Lightning Stakes down the Flemington straight.

If it eventuates, Black Caviar would have an unexpected rematch with her arch rival Hay List, emerging three-year-old Foxwedge and Sister Madly to name a few.

Such a move is unprecedented in Lightning Stakes history but if any horse could do it, Black Caviar can!
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A step up to seven furlongs proved to be no barrier to success for the incredible Black Caviar as she stretched her unbeaten record to 18 in the CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield......

Timeform's man 'Down Under', Gary Crispe, assesses how Black Caviar is likely to fare when stepping up in trip in the CF Orr Stakes (off 04:50 GMT) at Caulfield on Saturday....

On the eve of the best sprinter in the world attempting to take her career wins to a straight 18, Timeform brings you another international racing podcast......

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Dominic Beirne: Black Caviar won't fail at 1400

Australia / Editor / 10 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The flags will be out for Black Caviar on Saturday

“begin with the presumption that the champion mare will win and focus on the race for second and third.”

Australia's most revered form student Dominic Beirne has renewed his popular association with Betfair in time for Saturday's C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield, and is unsurprisingly predicting Black Caviar to cruise to a comfortable victory at her first attempt at 1400 metres.

In his weekend form assessment compiled exclusively for Betfair punters, Dominic suggests the best way to profit from the Orr Stakes is to "begin with the presumption that the champion mare will win and focus on the race for second and third."

"The race for second placing looks very likely to go to Southern Speed, who is assessed at $1.40 to run second," Beirne reveals.

"She's a group one winner, has won her past two at the track and won last start at the track and distance."

Dominic believes the fight for third is far more open with Danzylum a leading contender by virtue of the fact that his "last seven wins have all been at 1400 metres."

Sydney race goers will be consumed by their form guides today in preparation for an 11 race card at Rosehill, highlighted by the group two Expressway Stakes.

Brilliant sprinter Rain Affair is the hot favourite at $1.77 on Betfair, and Beirne believes the odds-on quote is justified at the four-year-old's first tilt at group two level.

"Rain Affair meets a very strong field, however nearly all runners are either first up from a spell or forced to concede a large start.

"The forecast rating for Rain Affair is actually slightly above the group two WFA standard and given those circumstances I think this potential rating will be good enough to win," Beirne concludes.

Beirne's exclusive Betfair analysis will stretch far and wide this autumn in the search for value and tomorrow Dominic's 'best exotic' bet is at Ascot in Western Australia.

Dominic's complete form analysis for Saturday's feature races is available HERE.

The connections of Kiwi stayer Roi D'Jeu have enlisted expert local knowledge by engaging Tasmanian Racing Hall of Fame jockey and seven-times premiership winner Stephen Maskiell to ride the six-year-old in Sunday's $225,000 Hobart Cup......

With Black Caviar's 17-race unbeaten stretch expected to be extended when the mare steps up to 1400m for the first time on Saturday, Betfair have opened up two new special markets on the race......

Unbeaten champion Black Caviar will face eight rivals in Saturday's $400,000 C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield (due off 04:50 GMT) when she goes for her 18th straight victory and her eighth at Group 1 level......

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C. F. Orr Stakes: Black Caviar day at Caulfield

Australia / Gary Crispe / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar goes for win no.18 on Saturday

Unbeaten champion Black Caviar will face eight rivals in Saturday's $400,000 C.F. Orr Stakes at Caulfield (due off 04:50 GMT) when she goes for her 18th straight victory and her eighth at Group 1 level...

Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed is the notable opponent to Black Caviar in the C. F. Orr Stakes, along with G1 winners Efficient and Playing God.

Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody, winner of the last two Orr Stakes (1400m) with Typhoon Tracy, will also be represented Doubtful Jack.

The Orr Stakes is the highlight of a card that also features two Blue Diamond Preludes.

Malasun is the headliner among the Prelude runners after the Mick Price-trained filly made a briulliant start to her career at Caulfield last month. She is the only two year-old still in contention to win the $1 million bonus associated with the Blue Diamond Series.

She will again clash with Member's Joy, owned by the Melbourne Racing Club Members' Horse Club. Members Joy, suffered her sole defeat when beaten by Malasun on Australia Day.

Patrons will be admitted free of charge to Saturday's meeting.

The Black Caviar theme will see Caulfield draped in salmon and black and her official Cheer Squad to travel en masse from Flinders Street Station on the "Black Caviar Express" to Caulfield.

Free Black Caviar flags and masks will be available upon entry, and patrons visiting a dedicated Black Caviar marquee will enjoy themed activities including a photo booth and autograph signings.

Retired champions residing at Living Legends Silent Witness and Apache Cat will also be paraded.

Top Australian jockey Kerrin McEvoy will team-up with Godolphin once more when he rides both Sepoy and Helmet on Dubai World Cup night......

Antipodean supermare Black Caviar notched her 17th straight victory with the minimum of fuss in the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley....

All eyes will be on Moonee Valley on Friday when six rivals will take on Black Caviar in the Group 2 Australia Stakes (due off 09:15 GMT) as she attempts to stretch her unbeaten run to 17......

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Middlesbrough v Sunderland: Black Cats to earn Arsenal date

FA Cup / Michael Lintorn / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Martin O'Neill's Sunderland have won four of their last five away games

"Middlesbrough have gone five fixtures without success in all competitions, winning none of their last three at home to sides in their division or higher."

Sunderland will see off out-of-form Middlesbrough at the second time of asking, predicts Michael Lintorn...

Middlesbrough v Sunderland, Wednesday 19:45, ITV1, Match odds: Middlesbrough [4.4], Sunderland [2.04], The Draw [3.5]

Steve Bruce certainly wasn't universally popular on Wearside, so Ellis Short and co can be satisfied with their work in identifying the best available successor, as two months in, boyhood Sunderland fan Martin O'Neill appears incapable of doing any wrong.

He has guided them to seven wins in ten Premier League games, including five in their last six, and up from 18th to eighth, but all that will be overshadowed if he manages to do something even more unlikely: make them a threat in the FA Cup again.

The two-time winners haven't reached the fifth round since the painful experience of losing a semi-final to Millwall in 2003-04, beating just one Football League team in seven years prior to their third-round victory at Peterborough in O'Neill's first FA Cup tie.

Though it was followed by a disappointing 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough at the Stadium of Light, that result suggests that the former Aston Villa boss - who led them to the semi-finals two seasons ago - is on the right track.

Boro have gone five fixtures without success in all competitions, winning none of their last three at home to sides in their division or higher, so with the Black Cats in terrific form, [2.04] is a tasty price on them getting it right at the second attempt.

Sunderland clean sheet

The correlation between Middlesbrough's slump and their recent struggle to score is clear to see, Marvin Emnes' only goal in three months coming against Shrewsbury, Lucas Jutkiewicz yet to open his account and Scott McDonald primarily netting on his travels.

The consequence is a pitiful tally of four strikes in their last seven matches at the Riverside Stadium and successive blanks there. It's a record that Sunderland's defence will be hopeful of prolonging, having conceded just twice in six encounters. They are [2.6] to keep a clean sheet and [3.15] to triumph to nil.

Best Bet: Sunderland to win @ [2.04]
Other Recommended Bet: Sunderland to win to nil @ [2.15]

Michael Lintorn is backing Blackpool to maintain their current form when they travel to Hillsborough for an FA Cup fourth-round replay with Sheffield Wednesday......

Michael Lintorn sees a link between Millwall's drop down the table and their results against the top sides which doesn't bode well for an FA Cup fourth-round replay at Southampton......

We're going through a time where no manager seems to just accept a referee's decison and everyone refuses to just get on with the game. There may be repercusions to this weekend's FA Cup action and any complaints and appeals...

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Patinack Farm Classic: Black Caviar fans will make a statement

News / Gary Crispe / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Black Caviar is aiming for a 16th straight victory at Flemington.

"Black Caviar is the most popular horse to race in Australia since triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, with her public aura rivalling the adoration that was bestowed on champions Phar Lap and Kingston Town"

Wearing salmon and black will be much more than a fashion statement at Flemington on Saturday when Black Caviar's growing army of fans turn out to watch her shoot for her 16th straight victory in the $1 million Patinack Farm Classic...

It has become the norm for racegoers to wear a combination of salmon and black to match Black Caviar's silks whenever she is racing.

Black Caviar is the most popular horse to race in Australia since triple Melbourne Cup winner Makybe Diva, with her public aura rivalling the adoration that was bestowed on champions Phar Lap and Kingston Town at the height of their careers.

The racing public expect her to win the Patinack Farm Classic and so does her jockey Luke Nolen.

In fact, Nolen believes Black Caviar is ready for the peak performance of her brief spring campaign, expecting the mare will go to another level after her recent wins at Caulfield and Moonee Valley.

She faces only six rivals, three of them stable mates while the other three have at some stage in their careers tried to match it with the champion mare only to have their hearts broken.

"She'll be peaking tomorrow and what we'll see tomorrow is probably Black Caviar at her best in Melbourne this spring," Nolen said.

However Nolen said Black Caviar will not be racing the clock

"As long as she's winning, it doesn't matter. They don't pay any more for breaking track records," he said.

"I'll just ride her to win."

Black Caviar is aiming for back to back wins in the Patinack Farm Classic. It will be her seventh Group 1 win, her sixth race win at Flemington and will take her prize money past $4 million.

In last year's Patinack Classic she was ridden by Ben Melham, only one of three times that Nolen has not been her rider as he was serving a suspension.

It's been a frustrating Melbourne Cup week for Nolen as he is winless after 20 rides on the first three days of the carnival, a rare statistic for last season's Melbourne premiership winner.

Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody has also been winless with 15 starters on the first three days of the carnival.

Moody said the $1 million prize money and Group 1 status of the Patinack Classic are the reason why he is lining up three stablemates, all mares, against Black Caviar on Saturday.

"A Group 1 placing on their resume would mean a lot to their pedigrees as they are all multiple stakes winners," he said.

"I don't expect them to be competitive with Black Caviar. They are racing for second or third."

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Mosheen, trained by Robert Smerdon, slammed her rivals this morning to claim a nine-length victory in the VRC Oaks at Flemington......

A classy field of 19 horses have been entered for the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 19, including last season's Gold Cup and King George winner Long Run and outstanding veteran Kauto Star......

Flemington hosts the Grade 1 Emirates Stakes on Saturday......

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Rugby World Cup: All Black Dagg can boost try bid against Canada

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Dagg a top try contender?

"Kieran Read, the No 8, has returned to fitness and will start his first Rugby World Cup match."

Even without their two talismen, New Zealand's form is ominous for everyone else and they should make hay against Canada, says Geoffrey Riddle.

New Zealand v Canada, Sunday 03:30 (ITV1)

New Zealand

New Zealand have opened the scoring in their last two matches with a try.

The All Blacks have scored the first match try in eight of their last nine fixtures.

Canada

Canada have scored the first points of the match in all three of their World Cup fixtures.

They also scored the first try of the match against Japan and Tonga. The first try in their three matches has come before the 12th minute.

Canada have missed eight kicks at goal.

All four tries Canada conceded against France were scored by back three players. Vincent Clerc scored a hat-trick of tries and Damien Traille was playing at full-back.

Prop Hubert Buydens made 15 tackles against France and centre Ryan Smith made 14 in the same match. In the 25-20 victory over Tonga Jamie Cudmore made 23 tackles, Adam Kleeberger made 14 tackles and Jebb Sinclair put in 10 - almost half of the team total.

Match stats

Dan Carter and Richie McCaw were named in the starting XV but after injuries to both, they're replaced by Colin Slade and Victor Vito respectively. Kieran Read, the No 8, has returned to fitness and will start his first Rugby World Cup match.

Kieren Crowley, the Canada coach, has once again named the best side available to him. He has been forced to replace James Pritchard, the team's kicker, with Conor Trainor, due to a bang to the head. Canada have five players in their squad who will have not played a match at the tournament.

Preview

Unfortunately for the Canadians, the All Blacks are strong where they are weak. The Canucks like to impose themselves physically on teams and keep play narrow by tackling anything that moves.

Although their back row is robust, they do not create turnover ball, and if anything, leak it and as such they are prone to counter-attacks by wings and fullbacks joining the line.

Canada have been given a ray of hope after Richie McCaw and Dan Carter pulled out, which means turnover possession will be a little slower for the All Blacks and will be used a little less precisely by Colin Slade, Carter's replacement.

With New Zealand looking in ominous form ahead of the knockout stages it may be worth a small investment in Israel Dagg to be the top tournament tryscorer. Dagg, who recovered from a deep thigh bruise, has collected four tries, two behind Chris Ashton after his touchdown against Scotland. Dagg could be the prime beneficiary of Sonny Bill Williams's offloading game and New Zealand should have the easiest quarter-final against Argentina. Either that, or lay Ashton at around [3.0].

Recommended investment: (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts I Dagg top tournament tryscorer at around [5.0]

Even without their two talismen, New Zealand's form is ominous for everyone else and they should make hay against Canada, says Geoffrey Riddle....

The Fijians have nothing to play for and the Welsh are finding form. So can the Dragon cover a handicap? Geoffrey Riddle provides the answer....

Argentina are only a point away from the quarter-finals as they face Georgia in a match that Geoffrey Riddle expects to be dominated by defence......

Geoffrey Riddle expect a close and attritional match on Sunday morning as Ireland and Italy bid to dump each other out of the World Cup......

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Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Black looks Banker material at Tipperary

Tipping / Patrick Jupp / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The action at Tipperary is due to start at 14.10

"The sprint handicap at 16.45 contains the best bet of the day in the shape of Bank On Black. She's had no luck at all since joining Willie McCreery this season, again poorly drawn when fourth at Down Royal last time, but the silver lining is that she's dropped to a very attractive mark"

The action comes from Tipperary today and we've come up with a couple of win bets and a lay....

Taking on unexposed three-year-olds in handicaps at this time of year is always a dangerous policy, and Alnashmy and Great Huzzar warrant the utmost respect in the 15.10. At the likely prices it could be worth siding with Sean Og Coulston instead, however, as he impressed with his strong-travelling style when climbing the handicapping ranks last year, winning three times, and is now back down to a workable mark, despite shaping better than the bare results suggest so far this term (got no sort of run at the Curragh last time).

Experience looks worth opposing in the feature event on the card half an hour later, the Tipperary Stakes over five furlongs. It's true that she has progressed with each start and won a Group 3 at the Curragh last time, beating a couple who reoppose today (Naseem Sea and Dam Beautiful). She left the impression that a step up to seven furlongs, rather than a drop back to the minimum trip, would be the obvious next step though, and has to shoulder a penalty for that success. Wayne Lordan prefers Requinto, who looked a real speedball when scoring at Cork in a good time in April, and at the likely prices a lay of Experience looks a good option.

The sprint handicap at 16.45 contains the best bet of the day in the shape of Bank On Black. She's had no luck at all since joining Willie McCreery this season, again poorly drawn when fourth at Down Royal last time, but the silver lining is that she's dropped to a very attractive mark, and everything looks in place for a big showing today. She has a competent 7 lb claimer on board and, more importantly, looks to be drawn around plenty of pace, with Ucanchoose in the adjoining stall and Kateeva and Faynita both drawn high as well.

Recommendations

Back Sean Og Coulston in the 15.10
Lay Experience in the 15.40
Back Bank On Black in the 16.45

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Today's three recommended bets from Timeform's US team......

We will skip the second day of the July Meeting at Newmarket and go to York for today's Placepot......

We have got one to back and two to lay on a what is a busy night in Ireland......

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Black Friday: Prepared by PLO

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

It has been two weeks since I've played a hand of online poker for real money. I did sit down for a couple of play money sessions here and there over the last few days. For example, the other night I managed to be the bubble boy in a 100-plus player multi-table tourney, finishing 13th when the top 12 spots paid.

I didn't cash, but then I suppose even if I had won I wouldn't have cashed. (Insert frowny face.)

As an American whose only online poker accounts were on sites targeted by the "Black Friday" indictments and civil complaint unsealed on April 15, I am presently having to do without online poker. I have begun to explore some of the other, still available sites and will perhaps before too long make the not-insignificant effort to get some funds into an account and get back into the game. But for now, like a player who is "card dead" and enduring a sequence of unplayable hands, I am having to be patient.

The game I miss the most is short-handed, pot-limit Omaha, a game that even if I lived in close proximity to live poker (I don't), I probably would not be able to find that easily, either. Over the last couple of years, I'd probably spent at least 80% of my time at the online tables playing 6-max. PLO, a game I've found much more engaging than no-limit hold'em.

While I remain a "recreational" player -- perhaps more serious than most, though hardly a threat to move up to professional status -- I did learn a little something about PLO strategy while playing those thousands of hands online. Reading Jeff Hwang's books on PLO (reviewed here) helped a lot, too.

I realized this week how some of the lessons I'd learned from PLO could be said to have application to "Black Friday" and its aftermath, at least in terms of being an online poker player in the U.S. and having to deal with the sudden unavailability of my favorite sites. Here are three ways you might say PLO has helped prepare me to deal with the current state of affairs.

Learning to Read

When it comes to evaluating starting hands, new PLO players generally have a much steeper learning curve than do those playing their first hands of hold'em. Sure, the NLHE newbie may not realize at first how suited connectors can become big profit-makers if played effectively, but for the most part it isn't that difficult to recognize big pairs and Broadway cards make for good starters in hold'em.

By contrast, evaluating starting hands in PLO is a more complicated matter. Here, too, some of the best ones -- like A-A-J-T double-suited -- might be obvious even to new players. But it usually takes novices a while to learn that starting with a couple of aces isn't always the cat's pajamas in PLO. Or that run-down hands like J-T-9-8 have great potential, too, especially when suited/double-suited or played from a positional advantage.

Starting with four cards means you have six different two-card combinations to choose from to make a hand -- as do all of your opponents. And since it is often the case that multiple players (i.e., more than two) see flops in PLO, the range of possibilities following a flop is much wider in PLO than in NLHE, making it more challenging to "read" the significance of players' subsequent actions.

"Black Friday" took many by surprise, but now we find ourselves looking back at all of the potential signs perhaps indicating the Department of Justice was about to suddenly "raise the pot" (so to speak) and force the largest online sites in the U.S. to "fold."

The arrest of payment processor Daniel Tzvetkoff last spring, the sudden uptick in legislative machinations on both state and federal levels to regulate online poker, and the announcements of those partnerships between the sites and land-based casinos all now appear as related bits information. Put together, they seem now both to suggest something about the strength of the DOJ's hand and that (from the feds' perspective) "slow playing" was no longer an option.

But like a PLO hand, it was a complicated situation, hard for many to "read" and understand definitively.

Dealing with Swings

For various reasons, PLO tends to be a more "swingy" game than other varieties of poker, with a higher "variance" that often translates into sudden changes to one's stack size, overall bankroll, and/or peace of mind. For some, this aspect of PLO makes it a more fun game to play, more likely to get the adrenaline pumping than saving an extra bet in a fixed-limit game or lots of folding in NLHE might.

Just as reading hands and situations in PLO can provide a special intellectual challenge, handling those head-spinning highs and precipitous plummets can present a psychological challenge to players, too. Most frustrating for me would be sessions that would begin with a hundred well-managed hands during which I'd slowly but satisfyingly chip up to improve my stack by a buy-in or more, only to be suddenly felted in one of those all-but-impossible-to-avoid coin-flip situations that will come up now and again in PLO.

When such misfortune occurred, I'd try to remember the flips I'd won -- or those hands when after getting it in as a huge dog I'd luckboxed my way into some undeserved success. I also developed other means by which to improve my perspective on big wins or losses and become less emotionally affected. And the more I played, the more I was able to "embrace the variance" (as Deuces Cracked instructor bellatrix recommends)

It should be obvious how this kind of mental training to handle abrupt changes in fortune comes in handy in the face of an event like "Black Friday." I'm one of many who have been affected in ways that go beyond the temporary lack of a game to play. But using my experience with PLO as a guide, I step back and recognize how rapidly things have changed in poker over the last several years.

"Black Friday" was certainly an especially big pot to lose, but if recent history is any indicator, there will be more big pots, I'm sure.

Thinking Ahead

As a "post-flop" game, PLO requires one to think beyond those initial preflop raises to prepare oneself time and again for multiple decisions on subsequent streets. As Jeff Hwang points out in Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy, PLO "is very much an implied-odds game," especially when played deep-stacked. In other words (suggests Hwang), it is often best to keep in mind that in PLO, really, "every hand is a drawing hand -- including AA hands."

I know from my own experience with PLO that whenever I felt as though I was playing my "A-game" I was consistently doing a good job thinking beyond what was happening preflop to anticipate how I'd be responding to various community cards and opponents' actions after the flop. A stronger player or strategist could probably better articulate what I'm trying to say here, but there's a "rhythm" to PLO to which I sometimes felt especially attuned, and getting to that point often involved focusing more on potential developments than the current situation.

By the same token, I knew I was off my game whenever I fell into what might be called a "made-hand mentality" wherein I was too preoccupied with making (say) my flopped top set stand up than considering the larger picture -- i.e., one that included dealing with the consequences of the turn and the river!

Again, I'm going to try to apply this ability to look ahead when assessing the current situation faced by U.S. players. Some observers have already begun to describe how the events of the last two weeks may in fact prove beneficial in the long run when it comes to those ongoing efforts to license and regulate online poker in the U.S. While I'm too much of a cynic to be overly optimistic, I can appreciate the importance of thinking about the "big picture" and not getting too wrapped up in how lousy a hand we've just been dealt.

PLO is a complicated game. So, too, is the "game" surrounding the future of online poker in the U.S., a game made even more complex thanks to the many political, cultural, and economic forces affecting how it gets played. (Or not.)

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Razavi Signs completes Black Belt Poker

Poker pro Sam Razavi has joined online poker room Black Belt Poker. He is only one of three Black Belt poker pros on the site. The other Black Belts are Neil Channing and Richard Ashby, a World Series of Poker bracelet winner. Razavi is a UK poker pro and recent Aussie Million finalist, as well as a former actor. As a Black Belt he will get a sponsorship program worth $10,000 per month in live tournament buy ins. This may or may not include the WSOP main event, which costs $10k to play.

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