Premier League 
/ Lee Dixon / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Demba Ba showed against Manchester United that he's often at his best in the biggest matches
"But I’m edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run."
Sunderland have improved massively under Martin O'Neill but this Newcastle side have been far more consistent over the course of the season and with a little help from Demba Ba, should make home advantage count, says Lee Dixon.
Match Odds
I talked to Alan Pardew on Match of the Day 2 last week and he had an interesting take on his side's 2-2 draw with Wolves. Pards said that the solitary point they picked up after 90 minutes might get Newcastle where they want to be at the end of the season - a glass-half-full guy if ever there was one!
Pardew gave his players the Monday off following the game and that adult approach could be just what the team needs after a disappointing result.
In fierce local rivals Sunderland, they are playing a side that suffered a painful weekend themselves, coming unstuck at West Brom in dramatic fashion, after a good run.
Regardless of that 4-0 defeat, Martin O'Neill has done a fantastic job since taking the helm at the Stadium of Light. His team are in a very decent position and could even push on for a European spot. In a strange way, I suspect that Pardew would have preferred to face the Black Cats when they were on the crest of a wave, as Martin O'Neill will have his players fully fired up for this one.
But I'm edging towards Newcastle in the match odds. They have the firepower and the Black Cats might just encounter another blip after a stunning run. The Opta stats back up the fact the hosts have had the upper hand in this fixture in recent times: Newcastle have won eight, drawn five and lost just one of the last 14 Premier League games against Sunderland.
At [2.22] I'm prepared to back the Toon for home win number eight of the season.
To Score
Demba Ba has had a fantastic season upfront for Newcastle and he's been joined in attack by fellow countryman Papiss Cisse, who has been most impressive in the four games since his arrival. Full of effort and energy, Cisse has fully deserved his two Premier League goals with his all-action displays.
However, he is a slight doubt for the match and I see Ba getting back amongst the goals himself. Against Manchester United he proved to us that he enjoys the big games and I fancy the Senegalese to score his 17th goal of the season on Sunday. As Opta say, Ba has not gone three league starts without a goal since joining Newcastle and I think he will get on the scoresheet again.
Booking Odds
This is generally a card-heavy affair with sendings off in the two of the last three, and I can't resist a dabble on nine points and above in the booking odds market
.
Recommended Bets
2pts Back Newcastle to win @ [2.22]
2pts Back Demba Ba to score @ [3.0]
2pts Back 9pts and above in Booking Odds @ [1.7]
Michael Cox says:
I'm expecting plenty of cards in this derby - there were six yellows and one red in the previous meeting between the two sides, and there could have been many more.
There are a couple of obvious players to back to pick up a card - Lee Cattermole is one, but Cheick Tiote strikes me as a walking yellow card here. He's picked up five yellows from 15 Premier League games this season, and was in good booking form at the African Cup of Nations, with three from his four games. Against Wolves last week he gave the ball away too much then had to stop counter-attacks, and I think he might be forced to break up Sunderland moves with fouls. So I'll back him to be shown a card at anything around [3.0].
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