FA Cup Opta Stats: Aguero to help Man City get revenge

"Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in seven FA Cup appearances for Man City."
Best Bet: Back Aguero to score against Wigan @ 1.768/11

Fuelled by Opta's insights, Michael Lintorn recommends a bet for every FA Cup quarter-final tie...

Arsenal v Everton (Saturday, 12:45, ITV)
Everton have won none of their last 19 away games against Arsenal in all competitions (W0 D4 L15)
Everton drew at the Emirates in the Premier League, but that was the only point they snared in five visits to top-five sides. Almost every stat points to Arsenal winning this time at generous odds. The Gunners are unbeaten in 13 domestic home ties, winning ten and conceding just three times. They have cleared ten of their last 11 FA Cup quarter-finals and lost twice ever as hosts in the competition under Arsene Wenger.
Recommended Bet: Back Arsenal to win @ 1.875/6

Sheff Utd v Charlton (Sunday, 12:00, BT Sport 1)
Chris Porter of Sheffield United has scored four goals in six FA Cup appearances this season
As Porter's League One strike rate this term is five in 21 outings, the stats paint him as an FA Cup specialist. However, his admirers can argue that his unremarkable league scoring is due to shuffling in and out of the team, whereas in the FA Cup, he is a protagonist. Either way, cup glory has helped the spot-kick specialist improve his league output, netting twice in his last 81 minutes of pitch time.
Recommended Bet: Back Porter to score @ 3.55n/a

Hull v Sunderland (Sunday, 14:00, ITV)
Hull have kept just two clean sheets in their last 14 FA Cup matches
Steve Bruce has won both meetings with the club that discarded him to nil this season, but expect greater balance to the scoresheet this time around. Hull's reputation as one of the meanest home defences around has been sullied by five KC Stadium ventures without a clean sheet, leaking four against Newcastle, while Sunderland have fired one away blank in seven, compared to six in a row prior to that.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.111/10

Man City v Wigan (Sunday, 16:05, BT Sport 1)
Sergio Aguero has scored eight goals in seven FA Cup appearances for Man City
The stage was set in the Capital One Cup final for Aguero to return from over a month out injured to lead Man City to their first trophy of the campaign, yet his 58-minute comeback wasn't capped with a goal. That was only the third time in 19 games that the Argentine failed to score for the Citizens though, and you have to trawl way back to September 14 to find his last two-match goal "drought".
Best Bet: Back Aguero to score @ 1.768/11

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Against All Odds: Stephen Kenny to get revenge at old club

"The Lilywhites have amassed 24 points from 13 fixtures to date, losing just three times."

Lay Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk @ 1.794/5 

Dundalk have made a bright start to their campaign in Ireland and Paul Robinson is backing them to continue their good form by avoiding defeat during the 90 minutes in their EA Sports Cup tie at Shamrock Rovers this evening.

Shamrock Rovers could only finish in fourth place last year and that meant a change of manager for the Hoops. Trevor Croly was appointed as boss in 2013 and the former assistant had his first job as a number one. It's been a slow beginning for him though as Rovers are only sixth in the table after 14 games with just three victories to their name.

In defence of the manager, his side have only lost twice, but an astonishing nine draws has hindered their progress and they already trail Sligo at the top by 12 points having played a game more. Things have been a bit better away from the league though as they lifted the Setanta Cup 10 days ago, beating Drogheda 7-1 in the final.

Dundalk also have a new manager at the helm and in a twist of fate, the man in charge is Stephen Kenny. Kenny was sacked by Shamrock Rovers last September after a 1-0 home defeat to Bohemians.

He is doing much better at the moment though as he has his side up in fourth place - a quite remarkable feat considering that they had to come through a relegation play-off tie to keep their top flight status last year.

The Lilywhites have amassed 24 points from 13 fixtures to date, losing just three times. One of those defeats was at Tallaght Stadium and Dundalk do have a terrible head to head record with Shamrock, but this is the cup and they will be highly motivated to exact revenge.

Dundalk have been the better team this season and although Shamrock Rovers do appear to have the Indian sign over them, I think they have to be opposed to get the job done in 90 minutes at around the 1.794/5 mark. That's why, at the prices, I'm making them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Shamrock Rovers v Dundalk @ 1.794/5

Wagered: 140 pts
Returned: 128.41 pts
P/L – 11.59 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Super League betting: Leeds seeking to gain revenge

"Leeds suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Wigan in this fixture last season and I can see them getting their revenge"

Stuart Jones gives us his bet bets for the weekend

Leeds Rhinos vs Wigan Warriors
An in-and-out start to the season is just about par for the course where the Rhinos are concerned and predicting which Leeds side will turn up during the regular season doesn't look like getting any easier. Brian McDermott has named an unchanged nineteen from last week, meaning Ben Jones-Bishop and Zak Hardaker are still absent.

Wigan have had to rely heavily on their youth system so far this season and there academy products have certainly acquitted themselves well up to now. The losses of Lee Mossop and Harrison Hansen were a bitter blow to a side already lacking in experience, but Shaun Wane has at least been able to call upon Darrell Goulding in the centres after a short spell out.

Leeds suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Wigan in this fixture last season and I can see them getting their revenge, especially if rumours about Sam Tomkins missing the game are proved to be true.

Salford City Reds vs Warrington Wolves
A draw away to Wakefield was a sign that things may well be picking up for the Reds, that game the first in charge for caretaker boss Alan Hunte, but they may well have been fortunate to bump into a Wakefield side that were feeling the effects of pushing Huddersfield and Catalans close in the previous two rounds.

This is exactly the type of game in which Warrington bully their opposition, and even without Lee Briers, I see no reason as to why the Wolves can't rack up a big score against a side that still has a great deal to prove defensively.

Warrington should be keen to bounce back from their defeat to Saints last week and I can't see -17.5 being enough.

Huddersfield Giants vs Hull FC
Both of these sides were able to return to winning ways with their stand-off's back to fitness last Friday, with Huddersfield's Danny Brough playing a pivotal role in their win over the Leeds Rhinos at Headingley.

Huddersfield's large forward pack is what most people talk about when coming up against the Giants, but it's certainly no coincidence that their only defeat this season came when Brough was in the stands.

Daniel Holdsworth played his part in Hull's win over Castleford, though the result in that game was clear from a very early stage. Castleford's left-hand side proving to be extremely vulnerable with no less than seven of Hull's try's coming down that channel. The downside for Hull was that a brawl late on has resulted in them missing Danny Tickle through suspension.

The Giants may well have the chance to go top with a win here and I can't see them being turned over on home turf this time around.

1 pt Leeds to win outright @1.8810/11
2 pts on Warrington to win by -17.5 pts at 1.9110/11
back Huddersfield Giants to win by - 8.5 pts at 1.9110/11

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La Liga Weekend Matches: Sporting revenge for Mourinho

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 13 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sporting Gijon probably won't win at the Bernabeu again this season

"Pep Guardiola’s men are in cruise control at the moment, getting ahead before half-time and staying there until full-time in each of their last ten league games"

Real Madrid play one of the campaign's easier-looking fixtures and Tobias Gourlay expects them to make no mistake at home to Sporting Gijon - not like last season

Real Madrid v Sporting Gijon
Saturday 19:00
Real [1.07] Sporting [55.0] draw [18.0]

Real Madrid are on a run of difficult fixtures at the moment: Valencia, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao... This match is the exception.

Sporting finally showed the gumption their coach is renowned for on Wednesday night, coming from behind twice to beat Levante with a late Gaston Sangoy goal. Javier Clemente's team are still neck deep in the mire, however, because Villarreal also won in midweek and Sporting remain seven points short of safety.

And it is not clear that gumption is enough to beat Real Madrid, even when the boys from the Bernabeu are shorn of their key playmaker. Xabi Alonso's loss of form goes some way to explain why Real have failed to beat Malaga, Villarreal and Valencia in recent weeks and this one-match suspension might help him. This is a good game to miss too - Sporting have earned only two points from 27 on their most recent away trips.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick in the city derby with Atletico on Wednesday. He's matched last season's record (40 league goals) and will pass it at some point very soon. But he's also just one card away from a suspension that would rule him out of el clasico next Saturday night. Real might actually be better off without him for that match (he doesn't usually work hard enough off the ball to contain Barcelona) but Jose Mourinho won't see it that way and is likely to protect his top-scorer once - if - this game is won.

Perhaps this will save Sporting from thrashing, but perhaps it won't. The northerners have conceded more goals than anyone in the last 15 minutes of league games this season (18) and that is exactly the time that Real are most lethal, preying on tired opponents.

It is a concern that Mourinho will be keen to preserve other players too for stiffer challenges ahead, but he will also remember that Sporting won this fixture last season and ended his staggeringly long run of home league games without defeat. They must be made to pay for the impertinence.

This column's backed Real to score at least four goals a few times this season. What Real have often done is score exactly four goals (six times in 16 home games). The defence is in decent shape at the moment, conceding only twice in the last five at the Bernabeu, and 4-0 deserves a punt at [7.6].

Recommended Bet: Back 4-0 @ [7.6] in Correct Score 2 Home

Levante v Barcelona
Saturday 21:00
Levante [17.0] Barcelona [1.22] draw [7.8]

The Handicap Win market is one way to work out which teams in a given league have most outperformed pre-season expectations. In the Primera Division, Levante are heavily odds-on to win this market. Before a ball was kicked they were given a 50-point headstart on Barcelona; that they are currently only 30 points behind this weekend's opponents suggests Juan Ignacio Martinez should be a frontrunner in the coach of the year competition.

The Frogs have not beaten Barcelona in a top-flight game for more than half a century, but they did hold the Catalan giants to a 1-1 draw at the Ciutat de Valencia stadium last season.

Can they derail a Barca team whose coach says they have already crashed and burned out of this season's title race? Probably not.

Pep Guardiola's men are in cruise control at the moment, getting ahead before half-time and staying there until full-time in each of their last ten league games. [1.66] is a generous price for them to make it 11 in a row on Saturday night.

We've mentioned Ronaldo up above, and it's traditional to then mention Messi too. So, Barca's star man has scored 39 league goals of his own this season, finding the back of the net in each of his last nine Liga appearances. Not even he knows where this particular run will end, but you can be sure he'll be odds-on to make it ten in a row this weekend.

If, for some reason, you fancy an upset, then Arouna Kone is your man. On loan from Sevilla, the Ivorian forward has netted in each of his last three outings for Levante.

Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona/Barcelona @ [1.66]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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ODI Betting: Pakistan to exact World Cup revenge on India

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pakistan are out for revenge

"As has so often been the case, this clash between neighbours will come down to India’s batsmen against Pakistan’s bowlers."

India's shock defeat on Friday gives extra spice to this meeting of bitter rivals and Andrew Hughes thinks Pakistan could have the edge.

March 18, India v Pakistan, Dhaka, 08:00 GMT
Team News
Given that their seamers have largely failed so far, India could go old school and play just the two, although it's more likely that they'll opt to shuffle the pack, bringing in Vinay Kumar at the expense of Ashok Dinda. Yusuf Pathan is another option, but India are already well-stocked with big hitters and M S Dhoni seems to prefer Ravindra Jadeja in the all-rounder's berth.

Pakistan will consider strengthening the batting by bringing in Asad Shafiq, but that would weaken their bowling and young all-rounder Hammad Azam did well enough in Thursday's game to retain his place. Aizaz Cheema took four wickets in that game so should continue to keep Wahab Riaz on the sidelines.

Venue and Conditions
There is a marginal advantage to batting second at the Shere Bangla Stadium, although results have not yet fully reflected this. The surface has looked a little worn and sluggish in the afternoon whilst the evening dew freshens it up and brings the ball onto the bat more quickly, as well as making it harder for the fielding side. Still this is essentially a batting-friendly venue and bowlers erring in line or length will suffer.

Match Odds
As has so often been the case, this clash between neighbours will come down to India's batsmen against Pakistan's bowlers. And on a good batting pitch, Pakistan's superiority with the ball could be crucial. On paper, India's batting is the best in the tournament, but their spinners are ordinary and their seamers are military medium. They badly miss the class of Zaheer Khan or Harbhajan Singh at his peak.

It is hard to see India's bowlers causing a talented if inconsistent Pakistan batting line-up too many problems. By contrast, Aizaz Cheema and Umar Gul backed up by the spin of Shahid Afridi and Saaed Ajmal can apply the pressure. It will be a close contest, but at [2.24] Pakistan are the value in the Match Odds market and have a great chance of securing revenge for that World Cup semi-final defeat.

Top Indian Batsman
Now that he's reached his milestone, the runs might come more freely for Sachin Tendulkar but at bigger odds, I prefer Suresh Raina. He hit a rapid half-century on Friday which should have blown away the cobwebs and he's worth backing at [6.5]

Top Pakistan Batsman
On a slowing pitch one or two of Pakistan's batsmen might lack the requisite patience, but the experienced Younis Khan is just the man for the job. He hasn't hit many runs yet, but he fell to a wonder catch from Fervez Maharoof last time so we can't read too much into his single figure score. He should be backed at [5.0]

Featured Market
So far the average number of fours per game is a touch over 42 with the lowest total being 35. At this venue, the four tally is unlikely to drop much below 40, so '0-30' makes no appeal in the Total Fours market. Both '31-42' or '43 or more' are worth backing at [2.0] or better.

Recommended Bet
Back Pakistan to beat India at 2.24

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Follow The Money: Back Jack for Southwell Revenge

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow the money to Sedgefield and Southwell

"Jacks Revenge has been backed down to [2.56] from [7.8]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell...

At Sedgefield, in the 15:55 2m Handicap Chase, there's been an unlikely gamble on Glengap. A Racing Post tissue of 28/1, matched at an early high of [16.0], the Elliott Cooper horse is now trading at around [7.8]. He showed some ability over hurdles and has a point to point win back in 07 but he's been uncompetitive of late. His recent efforts see him a stone lighter than the rest and, with 3lb claimer Harry Haynes (one from three at Sedgefield) taking some more off the money, he's one to follow.

On the All-Weather at Southwell the biggest gamble of the day has taken place in the 16:15 1m Maiden Handicap. George Baker's Jacks Revenge has been backed down to [2.56] from [7.8]. He was always at the rear last year, when running over slightly shorter at Wolverhampton, Lingfield and Chepstow, but with cheekpieces on, over a distance he looks bred to race at, the money suggests this race is exactly what Jacks Revenge needs.

Finally, in the 16:25 2m1f National Hunt Flat race, back at Sedgefield, Dome Run has drifted from [3.2] to [5.5]. On paper this one looks like having a good chance and trainer Alan Swinbank has a good record with newcomers in bumpers. However, the money suggest you look elsewhere. Armedanddangerous looks the best of the rest with a good debut in similar conditions.

Recommended bets:
Back Glengap @ [7.8] Sedgefield 15:55
Back Jacks Revenge @ [2.56] Southwell 16:15
Lay Dome Run @ [5.5] Sedgefield 16:25

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Today's Follow The Money movers come from Sedgefield and Southwell......

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